Happy Halloween everybody! Thank you for tuning in to week 211 of the Lindahl Letter publication. A new edition arrives every Friday. This week the topic under consideration for the Lindahl Letter is, “When Satoshi-Era Wallets Wake Up.”

Seriously, Bitcoin is weird. It has an enigmatic and anonymous founder. The origin story of how this cryptocurrency came to be is pretty much ineffable. Roughly a third of all bitcoin has never moved [1].These dormant or maybe abandoned coins shape both the scarcity and the psychology of the network. Now, some of those early wallets are coming alive again, and their reawakening reveals a deeper story about profit, security, and the bleeding edge of quantum cryptography. Maybe some of these cutting edge massive quantum computers are being used to run Shor’s algorithm and factor some of these older wallet keys [2]. That seems more likely to me than somebody remembering they had some old bitcoin after a decade and moving it around. We could write a really spooky short story about people waking up to old bitcoin wallets getting cracked by quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm. That is the type of short story that could move from fiction to non-fiction with one scientific breakthrough. It’s even possible it has already started to happen. By possible, I think it probably already is happening.

Speculation aside, it’s true that an estimated thirty percent of all mined bitcoin has been untouched for more than five years [3]. That is shocking. About seventeen percent of bitcoins have not moved in a decade [4]. Those figures mean that even as mining nears completion, a huge fraction of the network’s supply remains functionally absent or potentially abandoned. This long-term dormancy amplifies Bitcoin’s scarcity, turning lost or forgotten coins into a silent deflationary force. Yet in 2025, something shifted. Several ancient wallets, first active during Bitcoin’s infancy, have begun to stir after twelve to fourteen years of silence. Their movements are rare, deliberate, and full of meaning.

Some of these wallets trace back to 2010 and 2011, a time when bitcoin traded for less than a dollar. In July, eight early addresses moved roughly eighty thousand bitcoin in a coordinated set of transfers [5]. That is wealth that once totaled a few thousand dollars but is now worth billions. Somebody made some shocking profits. Later, a miner-era wallet from 2010 moved four hundred bitcoin after twelve years of dormancy [6]. In October, an early 2011 wallet that had accumulated four thousand bitcoin sent a small test transaction of 150 coins before going quiet again [7]. None of these events caused market disruption, but each drew immediate attention. Every time an ancient wallet moves, it feels like a fragment of Bitcoin’s early history is stepping into the present.

Why are these early coins moving now? The first reason is straightforward economics. With bitcoin surpassing one hundred thousand dollars, even small transfers yield generational wealth. Another reason is technological maturity. Over the past decade, wallet recovery methods have improved, and holders who once misplaced keys or old software backups can now retrieve them. Security has also evolved. Many early wallets were built with primitive address types that expose their public keys, leaving them theoretically vulnerable to a future cryptographic breakthrough. This leads to the third and most forward-looking motivation: the quantum threat. That is the part I’m super curious about. Some of the larger quantum systems that I shared in my leaderboard could be active here, but we don’t really know.

Quantum computing is still developing, but progress is steady. Bitcoin relies on elliptic-curve digital signatures that would be mathematically vulnerable to sufficiently powerful quantum machines. The earliest wallets used formats that make this risk more immediate, because they reveal public keys on-chain once a transaction occurs. If quantum computing advances far enough, those exposed keys could allow attackers to derive private keys and spend the coins. Experts estimate that a quarter of all existing bitcoin resides in such legacy formats. That reality has not escaped early holders. Some of the recent awakenings may reflect quiet migrations of classic wallet cold coins being moved to SegWit, multi-signature, or even post-quantum-resistant wallets to protect them from future compromise. These reactivations might not be about profit at all. They could be acts of defensive foresight from people who understand how close technology may be to challenging the foundations of digital security.

There are also practical motivations. Estate planning, custodial audits, and consolidation are all normal parts of managing large digital holdings. After more than a decade, early miners are updating their records, creating inheritance plans, and transferring assets to institutional custodians. The act of moving coins from an old address is sometimes less a financial maneuver and more a generational effort to ensure those digital fortunes survive their original owners.

Each time these wallets awaken, the community reacts with fascination and unease. The first question is always the same: could this be Satoshi Nakamoto? So far, none of the reactivated wallets match known Satoshi mining patterns, but the mythology persists. Beyond the curiosity, there’s the market anxiety that large moves might signal selling pressure. Yet most transfers have not flowed into exchanges. They seem measured, intentional, and quiet. In a sense, this is the opposite of panic: the calm movement of old wealth into modern systems that have better security.

What we are witnessing is also a potential generational handoff. The early experimenters who mined coins on laptops are now confronting questions of succession and security that mirror those of traditional wealth. Their coins, once symbols of rebellion against institutions, are being integrated into structured estates, custodial frameworks, and long-term trusts. As these coins move, they pass through new layers of infrastructure and oversight, becoming part of a global financial fabric that looks very different from the anarchic beginnings of Bitcoin.

As quantum computing advances and Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, more early wallets are likely to move. Some of those transfers will be tests or migrations; others may represent the quiet liquidation of immense fortunes. Watching these awakenings provides a rare link between the network’s origin story and its future. The early holders are not gone, some of them may have abandoned some bitcoins, or lost access, but some of them are simply preparing for the next phase of digital permanence, one where Bitcoin must prove its resilience against both time and the very real likelihood of advancements in quantum based technology.

Summary of the key points on the quantum threat to bitcoin:

* Quantum computing is advancing, and although no system has yet cracked the relevant cryptography used by Bitcoin, experts estimate that within the next 5-10 years some wallets using legacy address types could become vulnerable.

* A significant fraction of Bitcoin’s supply (in some estimates around 25 %) is held in addresses whose public key has been exposed (or in older formats such as pay-to-public-key) and thus are considered more at risk from a “Q-day” style attack.

* The network is already responding: developers have floated proposals (e.g., a draft BIP‑360) to freeze coins in vulnerable legacy addresses and force migration to quantum-resistant formats, with multi-phase transition plans.

* The fact that early “Satoshi-era” wallets are waking up now may reflect not just profit or estate planning motives but also pre-emptive security behaviour by holders who recognise the quantum risk and wish to migrate coins to safer custody.

* From a scarcity and supply-dynamics perspective, the quantum threat adds another layer of complexity: dormant coins may not just be inert, they may be targeted or moved due to security fears, altering how one thinks about long-term supply, holder behaviour and concentration risk.

What’s next for the Lindahl Letter? New editions arrive every Friday. If you are still listening at this point and enjoyed this content, then please take a moment and share it with a friend. If you are new to the Lindahl Letter, then please consider subscribing. Make sure to stay curious, stay informed, and enjoy the week ahead!

Links I’m sharing this week!

Footnotes:

[1] Van Straten, J. (2023, November 15). Record 70% of Bitcoin supply lies dormant for a year or more. CryptoSlate. https://cryptoslate.com/insights/record-70-of-bitcoin-supply-lies-dormant-for-a-year-or-more/

[2] Chojecki, P. (2025, May 20). Quantum computers threat to Bitcoin: Q-Day, post-quantum cryptography and Bitcoin. Medium. https://pchojecki.medium.com/quantum-computers-threat-to-bitcoin-e1b57b0da2aa

[3] AInvest. (2025, July 5). 30.4% of Bitcoin supply dormant for over five years. https://www.ainvest.com/news/30-4-bitcoin-supply-dormant-years-2507/

[4] Crypto News. (2025, June 18). Over 3.4 million BTC, more than 17% of the total supply, have not moved in at least a decade. https://crypto.news/bitcoin-dormant-supply-growth-outpaces-issuance-2025/

[5] Malwa, S. (2025, July 5). Eight Bitcoin wallets move 80,000 BTC in large...