Podcast Summary: The Long Game – "AI With a Western Soul"

Hosts: Jake Sullivan & Jon Finer
Guest: Tyler Cowen
Date: February 19, 2026
Podcast Network: Vox Media

Overview

This episode of The Long Game features economist and polymath Tyler Cowen discussing how artificial intelligence (AI) is shaping power, culture, and geopolitics, with particular focus on US-China relations, the diffusion of AI and technological power, and the emergence of "Western soul" AIs. The conversation ranges across topics including state capacity, supply chains, the impact of AI on jobs and national security, and even the potential existence of extraterrestrials. Cowen brings his distinctive big-picture thinking to bear, consistently challenging common assumptions and urging listeners to focus on both technological and mundane realities.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Staying Informed in a Rapidly Evolving World

[03:42–05:26]

• Tyler Cowen describes his methods for staying current: traveling to meet informed people, participating in curated WhatsApp groups, monitored Twitter use ("avoid clicking on politics related tweets"), and reading multiple books per day.
• Large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have significantly increased his productivity: he routinely asks LLMs 20-30 queries a day to supplement his reading.

  “I can learn much more reading, say a third of the books I used to, because I’m always asking for additional information. It’s a big change and improvement.” (Cowen, 05:15)

US-China Relations and the Future of Geopolitics

[06:37–13:58]

• The US and China are locked in long-term competition, but neither is likely to "beat" the other outright.
• Cowen foresees eventual cooperation in managing global disturbances, citing future possibilities reminiscent of US-Soviet cooperation during WWII.
• On China's economic trajectory, Cowen observes that China may already have hit a wall, with real estate stagnation and limited avenues for renewed growth.
• The risk of great power war is present but mitigated by US reluctance to fight over incremental Chinese moves on Taiwan.
• He argues for strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. Biden's explicit statements are useful, but ultimately, each crisis will require situational judgment.
• Cowen’s nuanced China “forecast”: A small, elite portion of China will escape the middle-income trap and rival global technological frontiers, while most citizens will not.

  “…The Chinese lower middle class might end up like, say, the Mexican middle class. And the country is large enough to contain both of those visions.” (Cowen, 11:56)

On US and Chinese Mutual Misunderstanding

[13:58–17:31]

• Cowen recounts his attempt to write a Tocqueville-style book explaining America to the Chinese, which state publisher Xinhua never printed.
• He believes China’s ambitions are focused on Taiwan and regional dominance—global hegemony is not a realistic goal.
• Unpredictability is China’s most consistent historical trait: major shifts often come as surprises.

The Near- and Long-Term Impact of AI

[20:02–21:10]

• “In five years, I do not think the world will be that different because of AI. Ten to fifteen years from now, I think it will be very different.”
  • The bottleneck is institutional and bureaucratic inertia (government, large orgs), not technology itself.
  • Startups and individuals will change first; median change lags.

AI Race: Innovation vs. Adoption
[21:10–23:37]

• The US leads in cutting-edge innovation, while China outpaces on rapid adoption and energy.
• Cowen warns that China’s Communist Party may be threatened by an intelligence superior to itself, and could even stall AI voluntarily (“10% chance”).
• “It’s hard to keep a big edge… there’s so much diffusion of the technology.” (Cowen, 22:42)

Soft Power: “AI With a Western Soul”

[24:08–25:21]

• Training data for LLMs is overwhelmingly Western, which causes top AIs (even Chinese ones) to “think like Americans” and adopt a center-left, polymathic, gentle persona.

  “That is arguably the biggest soft power win in all of human history, for any nation, any empire, any culture: that the smartest entities are made in our image.” (Cowen, 24:43)

• This soft power effect is unlikely to be offset by attempts at radical retraining: non-Westernized AIs would likely become “much stupider.”

AI Risks: Sober, Systemic View Over Catastrophism

[26:01–28:29]

• Cowen draws a historical analogy: just as societies had to rebuild with the rise of electricity, we must now adapt to AI—not because it’s evil, but because its effects are so profound.

  “We’re in this moment where big parts of our world will change and we need to get it right.” (Cowen, 27:41)

• He worries more about American cultural resilience and state capacity than about “rogue AI” or mass displacement.

The US-China AI "Race" and Strategic Advantage

[29:02–34:25]

• Cowen is skeptical of the “capability threshold” model: a decisive, winner-take-all AI leap is unlikely.
• Any US advantage would be temporary; China would soon catch up, as with nuclear weapons.
• He doubts the US could successfully hold other nations back technologically via sabotage or cyber means.
• Export controls on chips have value, but only for short-term gains; long-term, China catches up regardless.

Political and Socio-Economic Fallout of AI

[35:57–37:33]

• Job displacement will hit upper-middle-class white-collar jobs hard (e.g., law partners, consultants), which could disrupt key Democratic constituencies.
• “What will happen to the Democrats when that interest group crashes? ... I think it will be ugly.” (Cowen, 36:55)
• Cowen speculates podcasters are safe—“listeners do not want AI generated podcasts, even if the AIs are smarter, better and funnier than we are.” (37:18)

The Importance of “Boring” Realities: Sand, Supply Chains, and NIMBY

[38:24–41:05]

• Cowen highlights mundane but critical elements like sand (for electronics/construction), cautioning that such basics are chronically overlooked.
• Resilient supply chains are unattainable in an absolute sense, but the US can improve by dismantling NIMBY barriers and cooperating with allies.
• “The more radical your change becomes, the more poisonous those NIMBY barriers are.” (Cowen, 40:24)

State Capacity: Government Effectiveness in a Changing World

[41:05–45:50]

• Cowen characterizes himself as a “state capacity libertarian”: for limited, but highly competent, government.
• US government has lost scientific and technical talent; AI policy under Trump is less restrictive (“better than the Biden people would have been”), but expansion of ICE and corruption are major setbacks.
• Cowen advocates for radical reform, e.g., new science agencies, shifting Medicare dollars directly to Social Security, even if it's politically difficult.

Defense Innovation, Startups, and US Military Capacity

[45:50–46:52]

• While US defense contractors act like “state-owned enterprises,” there’s hope in how defense startups (e.g., Palantir, Anduril) have supplied capabilities.
• Political interference in contracting (demanding loyalty) remains a risk for the sector.

Supply Chains & Strategic Vulnerability

[46:52–49:08]

• Complete supply chain resilience is a myth, but practical improvements—especially with allies and fewer regulatory hurdles—are achievable and beneficial regardless.

Aliens, UAPs, and Probabilities: Tyler Cowen on the Unknown

[49:08–54:51]

• Cowen assigns a non-trivial (≈10%) chance that unexplained aerial phenomena are of extraterrestrial origin—but an extremely low chance (<1%) that the US government is hiding proof.

  "The real conspiracy is people are afraid to admit they don't know." (Cowen, 53:01)

• Most likely scenario: if these are alien drone probes, they are ancient, AI-governed, and not here to interact.

Overrated/Underrated Lightning Round

[55:31–60:49]
Cowen provides quick takes:

• People’s Liberation Army: Overrated; plagued by inefficiency and questionable loyalty. (55:48)
• Cryptocurrency: Highly polarized; stablecoins are “underrated” as tools for dollarization and soft power. (56:22)
• Narrative Journalism: Underrated; harder to sustain financially, but valuable. (57:41)
• Quantum Computing: Increasingly underrated as more young talent joins the field. (58:22)
• Measles Threat: (Re-)emerging due to cultural/attitudinal decline towards vaccination; threatening public health. (58:35)
• Olympic Curling: Underrated; dramatic and enjoyable. (59:21)
• Sports Betting: Now seen as a significant social problem; easier access has led to more harm than anticipated. (60:01)

Notable Quotes

• On LLMs Changing Information Consumption:
  “I can learn much more reading, say a third of the books I used to, because I’m always asking for additional information. It’s a big change and improvement.”
  —Tyler Cowen (05:15)

• On Soft Power of Westernized AI:
  “That is arguably the biggest soft power win in all of human history, for any nation, any empire, any culture: that the smartest entities are made in our image.”
  —Tyler Cowen (24:43)

• On Institutional Adaptation to AI:
  “You need a 10, 15 year time horizon for the world to truly, really radically change.”
  —Tyler Cowen (20:41)

• On Geopolitical “AI Race” with China:
  “It’s hard to keep a big edge… there’s so much diffusion of the technology.”
  —Tyler Cowen (22:42)

• On AI Risks and Societal Change:
  “Today we are again in a situation, whether we like it or not, where we need to rebuild our world.”
  —Tyler Cowen (27:24)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:42 – Tyler on staying informed and using LLMs
• 06:37 – On US-China rivalry and the coming stalemate
• 09:07 – Taiwan, strategic ambiguity, and "mixed strategies"
• 13:58 – China’s ambitions and unpredictability
• 20:02 – AI’s near- and long-term impact
• 21:50 – The US-China AI “race” and adoption vs. innovation
• 24:08 – “Western soul” of AI and its soft power implications
• 26:01 – AI risks and societal need to rebuild
• 29:02 – Why a “decisive” AI advantage is unlikely
• 35:57 – Political fallout of white-collar job loss
• 38:24 – The unseen importance of sand and supply chains
• 41:05 – State capacity and government competence
• 45:50 – Problems (and promise) in defense innovation
• 49:08 – Probabilities on aliens and government secrecy
• 55:31 – Overrated/Underrated (Army, crypto, journalism, etc.)

Tone and Style

Cowen is unflappably analytical, wide-ranging, and nuanced, blending optimism (on AI's potential, on the US eventually doing the right thing) with sobering realism (on the limits of power, the inertia of institutions, the dangers of complacency). The hosts balance probing policy questions with accessible and sometimes humorous asides, keeping the conversation lively and grounded.

Conclusion

This episode crosses traditional boundaries between economics, technology, and security policy. Cowen challenges listeners and policymakers to consider both the visible and invisible factors shaping global power—highlighting everything from the strategic consequences of AI’s “Western soul” to the critical shortage of sand. For those trying to understand how the next decade of geopolitics and technology diffusion will play out, this conversation is a must-listen.

For listeners seeking to dive into specific sections, the timestamps above provide quick reference points for each core theme and quote.