The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer

Episode: "Mexico, Iran, Anthropic and the SOTU Signals"
Date: February 25, 2026
Podcast Network: Vox Media

Episode Overview

In a fast-paced, wide-ranging episode, Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer dissect the political and national security events dominating the headlines, focusing on the aftermath of the President’s State of the Union address. They analyze the implications of the President’s approach to foreign policy—especially on China, Iran, and Mexico—before turning to the unprecedented standoff between the Pentagon and AI company Anthropic. The episode also includes reflections on recent Olympic successes, the complexities of sports and politics, and closes with a segment on diplomatic best (and worst) practices.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Union: Foreign Policy Sidelines

(Start at 01:21–18:56)

• Domestic Over Foreign:
  Sullivan and Finer note the President’s State of the Union address (SOTU) was the longest in history but delivered notably little on foreign policy, particularly on the U.S.-China relationship, Iran, Ukraine, and Gaza.
  • Sullivan: "We waited patiently... for the foreign policy section. It came very late in the speech, and there. There was very little on foreign affairs." (10:54)
• China's Near Omission:
  The President mentioned China only in passing and not as a central competitor or threat—unusual given the high stakes.
  • Finer: “That was not a topic that the President particularly dwelled on… Rather than, I think, state the U.S. policy and assert the U.S. national interest, the president decided in this case, just give it a pass." (11:51)
• Ukraine and Gaza:
  Both found the treatment of these conflicts vague, with the President “hand wav[ing] at them and then mov[ing] on” (17:06), reflecting uncertainty and lack of diplomatic traction.

2. The Olympics: Moments of National Pride

(02:43–09:29)

• Sullivan and Finer celebrate American achievements at the Olympics, underlining standout stories like:
  • Alyssa Liu’s Gold & Backstory:
    A tale of resilience and joy—“her story is just unbelievable... it’s what the Olympics are all about.” (03:08)
  • Johannes Klabow’s Six Gold Medals in Cross Country Skiing:
    Both marvel at his physical endurance—“To win six gold medals in one Winter Olympics... is just a remarkable feat.” (04:34)
  • US Hockey’s ‘Golden Goals’ over Canada:
    They discuss the excitement and national unity these unexpected victories brought.
    • Finer: “I think a moment of pride for the entire country... this has been a bright light for a country that's divided on so many other things.” (06:57)

3. Iran: The Edge of War

(21:38–46:36)

• Limited, Ambiguous SOTU Messaging:
  The President’s SOTU comments on Iran reduced the prior “red line” to requiring only that Iran say the “secret words”—a public pledge never to seek nuclear weapons, which Iranian leaders have already made.
  • Sullivan: "This at least is a dangle of lowering the bar... Iran explicitly said this [in the nuclear deal]." (23:42)
• Introduction of ICBM Threat:
  Trump suggests Iran’s missile program, now said to include potential intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), could itself justify war—a new and troubling pretext.
  • Finer: "President Trump seemed almost to be indicating that Iran developing an intercontinental ballistic missile capability... would also itself be a red line." (27:12)
• Military Build-up & Uncertainty of Motive:
  The U.S. presence in the region is at its highest since 2003, but both hosts find no clear rationale for immediate military action—raising grave concerns.
  • Sullivan: “If you’re going to take military action against a country that... possesses the capability to hit your bases... you’ve got to be able to answer a simple question. What are you trying to achieve?” (42:12)
• Risks of Escalation and Retaliation:
  They warn that further strikes could provoke large-scale Iranian retaliation, with thousands of U.S. personnel and civilians in missile range.
  • Finer: “It is pretty crazy... to start a big unnecessary war without meaningful consultation with our Congress which has the constitutional power to declare wars.” (37:09)
• Lack of Legal and Strategic Clarity:
  The administration has offered not only unclear justifications but also conflicting strategic aims (regime change, supporting protesters, containing nuclear threat). Both hosts warn of repeating the mistakes of past Middle East interventions.

4. Mexico: Cartel Crackdown & U.S. Pressure

(47:50–59:39)

• El Mencho’s Arrest:
  The Mexican government apprehended notorious cartel boss El Mencho amid strong U.S. pressure, highlighting the complexity of bilateral relations and ongoing cartel-state-public violence cycles.
  • Finer: “This was a pretty significant action... He was betrayed by—sounds like a lover of his... the Mexicans were able to go in and find him. He got shot. He ended up in a helicopter, died in the helicopter, which, by the way, seems a bit dodgy...” (47:52)
• U.S. Threat of Military Operations in Mexico:
  Trump administration’s threat to intervene militarily looms large—an unprecedented proposition.
• Ongoing Instability:
  Removal of cartel leaders often sparks further violence: “We’ve seen basically this playbook before, and then the cartel has a playbook in response to a kingpin getting taken out.” (50:57)
• Sheinbaum’s Predicament:
  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum now faces intertwined crises—drugs, migration, trade—under U.S. duress but is, Finer notes, “handling it pretty well.” (58:46)

5. Pentagon vs. Anthropic: AI, Autonomy, and Coercion

(60:29–69:41)

• Background:
  Anthropic is the only AI company providing classified services to the Pentagon, but insists on two limits: no mass surveillance, no AI-controlled lethal weapons. Pentagon demands “all lawful uses,” threatening to invoke the Defense Production Act or blacklist Anthropic.
  • Sullivan: “...if it doesn’t drop these two restrictions... either the Pentagon will use this authority... to compel Anthropic... or the Pentagon will put Anthropic on a list of supply chain risks...” (60:38)
• Ethics and Overreach:
  Finer empathizes with Anthropic, noting the novelty and risk of AI in warfare and mass surveillance.
  • Finer: “I think you can make a pretty strong case that Dario Amodai... [has] a deeper understanding of what exactly is safe and unsafe in terms of how these models operate... than Pete Hegseth does at this point.” (63:00)
• Government Coercion as a Red Flag:
  Sullivan points out the logical inconsistency and danger in the Pentagon’s stance.
  • “It suggests that this supply chain risk threat is not based in something real... it is an indication of the coercive power of the federal government against a company that frankly, is trying to do the right thing. And that leaves me feeling pretty nervous about the implications.” (66:32)

6. Quick Takes: Diplomacy Done Right (and Wrong)

(69:56–74:43)

• Good Diplomacy:
  Brazilian President Lula’s visit to South Korea, where a four-fingered glove was crafted for his disability, was a moving example of personal and national diplomacy.
  • Sullivan: “Just the delight on his face and the care and the thoughtfulness the South Koreans took is pretty damn cool... good diplomacy.” (69:56)
• Bad Diplomacy:
  U.S. Ambassador Charles Kushner snubs a French government summons after the U.S. comments on internal French politics; a needless escalation.
  • Finer: “As an ambassador to a country, you can have no other plans that are more consequential than being summoned by the government.” (71:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Foreign policy got very little airtime... A decision has been made to elevate domestic issues, at least in public messaging."
  — Jake Sullivan (01:21)

• “Trying to turn the Canadians into the Soviet red machine, a la 1980, is more than a little bit of a stretch.”
  — Jake Sullivan on U.S.-Canada hockey rivalry (08:36)

• "You can read the way he formulated the Iran section two ways… This indicates he’s trying to find a diplomatic solution. The other way... is that he’s more or less decided he’s going to strike... we actually got a lot of clarity out of the speech about which direction he’s planning to head."
  — Jake Sullivan on the SOTU and Iran (29:44)

• "The administration has offered not only unclear justifications but also conflicting strategic aims... We are on the cusp of something really problematic on multiple different ways levels."
  — Jake Sullivan (46:36)

• “If you’re going to take military action against a country that... possesses the capability to hit your bases, hit your people, you’ve got to be able to answer a simple question... What are you trying to achieve?”
  — Jake Sullivan (42:12)

• "Trump administration pulled out of a nuclear deal with Iran that brought Iran much closer... Now they’re trying to re-achieve basically an identical nuclear deal... They bombed Iran last year and now are on the verge of having to bomb Iran again."
  — John Finer (46:36)

• “If Pete Hegseth and the Pentagon stepped out of this macho effort to just coerce Anthropic... they could come to some understanding that would address the Pentagon's concerns... but also addresses Dario’s legitimate concern.”
  — Jake Sullivan (66:32)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Olympic Highlights: 02:43–09:29
• State of the Union and China: 10:05–15:29
• SOTU Handling of Ukraine and Gaza: 17:06–18:56
• Iran, SOTU & Rationale for War: 21:38–46:36
• Mexico Cartel Arrest Analysis: 47:50–59:39
• Pentagon vs. Anthropic (AI): 60:29–69:41
• Good/Bad Diplomacy Segment: 69:56–74:43

Final Thoughts

Sullivan and Finer provide a candid, behind-the-scenes perspective on how foreign and national security policy gets made—and too often compromised—at the highest levels. Their skepticism over both the President’s directionless approach to Iran and the Pentagon’s AI standoff is a running thread, underscored by concern for both the nation's values and strategic interests. This episode is an essential listen for anyone seeking to understand the real dynamics shaping today’s U.S. foreign policy debates.