Podcast Summary

The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer

Episode: Occupation by Joystick: Venezuela
Air date: January 9, 2026
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

Overview: Main Theme & Purpose

In this episode, Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer, President Biden’s former national security team, dive into the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro, the installation of his deputy in power, and President Trump’s declaration that America will “run Venezuela.” The conversation unpacks both the immediate impacts and the far-reaching consequences of this unique “occupation by joystick”—a remote, force-backed model of regime change without American boots on the ground. The episode explores the strategic logic, operational details, implications for U.S. foreign policy, and the emerging, equally concerning possibility of U.S. interest in Greenland. Additional segments discuss global developments, including Iranian protests, tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and Chinese military moves around Taiwan.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Backdrop: Setting the Global Context

Timestamps: 02:06–07:56

• Multiple global hot spots are quickly evolving, notably:
  • Iranian protests destabilizing the regime (04:12).
  • Conflict between UAE and Saudi Arabia—historically close U.S. allies—now active rivals in Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia (05:52).
  • PLA military exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan (07:06).
  • Ukraine war and ongoing diplomacy (07:56).

Sullivan notes:

“Today we really do want to break a little bit from our normal pattern... and dive deep on Venezuela. And then... the closely related issue of whether the next domino... to fall will be Greenland.” (07:56)

2. The Venezuela Operation: What Happened?

Timestamps: 08:00–15:52

a. U.S. Justification for Removing Maduro

• Maduro described as an “oppressive, anti-American dictator,” inheriting and intensifying Chavez’s repressive legacy.
• U.S. rejects the credibility of Venezuela’s 2024 elections, stating Maduro’s rival, Edmundo Gonzalez, likely won 2-to-1 but results were falsified (09:34–11:57).

Finer:

“Maduro is a bad guy... probably less charismatic, maybe less effective... but pretty colorful himself too. Not a guy who’s anything like a friend to America.” (10:25)

b. Military Op as a Show of Force

• Special Forces executed the operation with precision; no fatalities among U.S. forces, signaling American strength and capability (11:57–12:14).
• Sends “a shot across the bow” at U.S. adversaries: China, Russia, Iran, Cuba (12:14).

c. Trump’s Post-Operation Messaging

• Initially, the bipartisan sense of awe at the military’s success quickly evaporates after President Trump’s press conference:

“We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition… for the purpose… of having multinational oil companies get access to oil in Venezuela.” (13:19–14:56)

• The term “occupation by joystick”—remote control occupation—describes the emerging U.S. approach, with ships and air power dictating terms but without a sustained ground presence (17:27–19:40).

Notable quote (Sullivan):

“Occupation by joystick... like this is a video game being run from offshore. You could say occupation by remote control.” (17:27)

3. Strategic Implications, Risks, and Precedents

Timestamps: 19:40–36:54

a. Risks of Remote-Control Regime Change

• U.S. conducted a high-risk operation for unclear strategic gain; regime remains largely unchanged.
• The model risks further instability and may force the U.S. into deeper intervention if Venezuela unravels (20:49–22:25).
• Reflects a dangerous precedent; similar U.S. interventions tend to “look better in the moment than they do in the rearview mirror”—the Iraq parallel is invoked (33:12–34:21).

Sullivan:

“...we just did a whole lot to get a whole little out of Venezuela, and whether, in fact, the rest of the region and the rest of the world is going to think, yeah, in the near term, we're going to have to basically...duck a bit because we don’t want to be next in line…” (14:49)

b. Legitimacy and Threat Assessment

• Comparison to previous counterterror raids (ISIS, Al Qaeda) highlights the relatively low threat posed by Maduro to the U.S.—87% of Americans polled do not consider Venezuela a serious threat (28:03).

c. Bluntness of U.S. Action

• The kinetic, less discriminating tactics of the Caracas raid resulted in significant casualties (“just go in and blast away”)—a departure from painstaking efforts in counterterror raids to avoid civilian deaths (31:14–32:33).

Sullivan:

“...in the Caracas case, you had a lot of guys with guns...but you had a lot of other people just rolling around this compound as well...just go in and blast away.” (31:14)

4. Aftermath & Possible Scenarios for Venezuela

Timestamps: 33:12–39:41

a. Client Dictatorship and Oil

• The likely outcome: The pro-U.S. vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, rules with continued military backing—and generous concessions to U.S. oil interests.
• Street repression is ongoing to prevent a “democratic moment.”
• Trump administration is uninterested in democratic transition. Marco Rubio, otherwise pro-democracy, downplays elections as too unstable for now.

b. Alternative Outcomes

• Delsey Rodriguez might not consolidate power, or Venezuela could descend into chaos.
• U.S. might try for more ambitious intervention or even democratic transition sometime in the future, although no signs yet.

c. Lost Opportunity for Political Change

• A clean post-Maduro operation could have pushed immediately for new, credible elections or installed the true 2024 winner, Edmundo Gonzalez, but has defaulted to “very cynical, stick with Delsey, take the oil.”

5. Unpacking the “Oil Grab” and Its Illusions

Timestamps: 39:41–43:02

• The U.S. claims a “windfall” of 30-50 million barrels—equivalent to just two days of U.S. oil consumption and only a couple billion dollars (41:28–42:07).
• Break-even price for production by U.S. oil majors in Venezuela is $80/barrel—higher than the market price, further undermining claims of a true “win” (39:41).
• Trump’s plan includes subsidizing U.S. companies to extract in Venezuela while cutting energy tax credits at home: “Nothing says America first like paying an oil company to drill in Venezuela rather than Texas or Alaska.” (41:09)
• Past actions, like Biden's petroleum reserve trades, delivered more tangible benefit.

6. The Greenland Question: Another Domino?

Timestamps: 44:06–58:10

a. Why Greenland?

• Trump administration fixation—oscillating between “we should just buy it” and “we could take it by force” (45:57–47:36).
• Strategic geography (radar, missile defense), mineral/rare earth resources, and raw “real estate” ambition drive interest, echoing 19th-century American expansionism (47:36–50:41).
• U.S. already maintains a major Space Force and radar presence there, with full cooperation of Denmark and Greenland—no invasion needed.

Sullivan:

“The only one of the rationales that cannot easily be satisfied with Greenland not being invaded by the United States of America is Trump’s desire to be the James K. Polk of the 21st century.” (56:51)

b. Historical Precedents & Current Dangers

• The U.S. has eyed Greenland before, including attempted purchases in 1868 and 1946, and a convoluted three-way swap in 1910 (51:18–53:51).
• If the U.S. seizes the territory of a NATO ally, it would destroy NATO’s credibility and cohesion:

“This would be the death knell of the NATO alliance...all of the benefits over all the decades...Poof. And for what?” (57:10)

7. China, Russia, and the New Precedent for Global Power

Timestamps: 58:10–59:37

• America’s aggressive posture in its own hemisphere may embolden rival powers to do the same (e.g., Russian rationale in Ukraine, Chinese assertiveness around Taiwan and regional neighbors).
• Chinese strategists likely see U.S. actions as evidence of “terminal decline,” shifting their calculus about American strength and alliances.

Sullivan:

“...people in Beijing right now...have long believed America is in terminal decline. And the way they look at this Venezuela action is they think this is classic pathologies of countries in decline...they lash out at their next door neighbors, their weaker neighbors...” (58:10)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ‘Occupation by Joystick’:
  Sullivan: “Like this is a video game being run from offshore...an occupation by remote control.” (17:27)

• On Trump’s Rationale:
  Finer: “...there was almost this defeat from the jaws of victory. And I use victory in air quotes...” (15:52)

• On U.S. Special Forces Capability:
  Sullivan: “...when there is a hard target...they build models...and they go practice against it relentlessly. The level of practice that must have happened here had to be incredible.” (22:25)

• On Precedent and Global Security:
  Finer: “...that concept that in your own neighborhood you can use force to control sovereign countries is an idea that'll be very friendly to Russia, China...” (34:27)

• On the Real Purpose of Oil Policy:
  Sullivan: “Nothing says America first like paying an oil company to drill in Venezuela rather than Texas or Alaska.” (41:09)

• On Strategic Folly & NATO:
  Sullivan: "...if the major player in NATO, the United States of America, attacks and seizes the territory of another NATO member, you can kiss that [NATO] goodbye." (57:10)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |---------|------------| | Global scene-setting (Iran, UAE-SA tension, Taiwan) | 02:06–07:56 | | Venezuela operation—objectives/rationale | 08:00–15:52 | | “Occupation by joystick” concept explained | 17:27–19:40 | | Operational details & risks | 20:49–32:33 | | Precedent and foreign policy danger | 33:12–36:54 | | Aftermath and outcome scenarios | 36:54–39:41 | | Oil dimension & economic realities | 39:41–43:02 | | Trump’s Greenland ambitions | 44:06–58:10 | | China/Russia precedent and closing | 58:10–59:37 |

Final Thoughts & Wrap-Up

Jake and Jon conclude by warning of the longer-term fallout: the hazard of normalizing U.S. coercive control in its own hemisphere could irreparably damage democratic credentials, embolden rivals, and undermine alliances. The risk of escalation—either deeper in Venezuela or with a fantastical, precedent-shattering assault on Greenland—makes this a crucial moment for U.S. grand strategy and global stability.

Sullivan, closing:

“We call this podcast The Long Game because it’s exactly those longer term implications and consequences that aren’t immediately apparent that end up coming home to roost.” (59:31)

For deeper insights and evolving coverage, Jake and Jon promise to revisit the oil question and the Saudi-UAE rivalry in future episodes.