The Long Game with Jake Sullivan & Jon Finer

Episode: “Rage in Tehran, Lasers in Texas”
Date: February 13, 2026
Guest: Yeganeh Torbati, Washington Post journalist and Iran expert

Episode Overview

This week’s episode explores Iran’s most turbulent and repressive period in decades, drawing on first-hand reporting and analysis from journalist Yeganeh Torbati, recently laid off from The Washington Post. The hosts, senior White House aides Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer, dissect the human and political cost of Iran’s brutal crackdown, geopolitical implications for regional diplomacy and US policy, and whether external intervention is desired or possible. In the lighter second half, Jake and Jon untangle the odd saga of a party balloon shot down in Texas by military-grade lasers, reflecting on government coordination and the emerging challenge of drone defense.

1. Iran’s Darkest Hour: Reporting from the Ground

(01:42 – 13:33)

• Yeganeh Torbati’s Experience:

  • Yeganeh recounts being hired by the Post for full-time Iran coverage, only to witness an immediate Israeli strike on Iran and—soon after—her layoff.
  • She emphasizes the immense gulf between Iranian society and the ruling state, the critical age of the Supreme Leader (now near 87), and the unreformed nature of the regime.
  • Her recent work focused on reconstructing state violence during internet blackouts (notably the Rash massacre) and amplifying ordinary Iranians’ voices despite reporting obstacles.

  "January was an incredibly difficult month to be covering Iran news...The images that I've seen are just gonna stay with me probably forever, unfortunately."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (06:16)

• Loss of Foreign Correspondents:

  • Jon Finer describes the irreplaceable value of open-source on-the-ground reporting in a country lacking a US diplomatic presence.
  • Laments not just the layoffs, but the void in nuanced understanding of Iranian civil life, politics, and raw emotion.

2. Iranian Society & Government: A Blood-Soaked Divide

(13:33 – 17:08)

• Atmosphere in Iran:

  • Described as “the darkest time” since the 1980s, with widespread killings and surging public rage, exacerbated by the suppression of communication.

  "There's a rage that I haven't seen before from people who are not violent people...I could rip Khamenei apart with my bare hands if I saw him."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (12:16)

• Regime Stability:

  • Despite economic collapse and public fury, the regime remains cohesive and capable of violent repression.
  • Street protests are brutally quashed; no organized opposition has emerged due to systematic decimation of civic groups.
  • Economic mismanagement is ongoing; sanctions relief is the only conceivable path to improvement, but leaders show no intent to compromise.

3. US-Iran Diplomacy: Stalemate & Red Lines

(17:08 – 25:46)

• Current Situation:

  • President Trump threatened military action if protesters are slaughtered—and then, after a mass crackdown, the US pivoted to renewed talks.
  • Iranian expectations are mostly about sanctions relief and preserving capabilities in uranium enrichment and missile development.
  • The US, under unpredictable leadership, is unclear in its demands and unwilling to accept less than far-reaching Iranian concessions.

  "I think in some ways it's even easier to talk about what the Iranians want than what the US wants, because I feel like President Trump sort of signals different things."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (18:45)

  "They will not give up enrichment...not give up their missile program. And if they won't do those two things, the question is, would Trump basically accept something less than that?"
  — Jake Sullivan (22:29)

• Regime Mindset:

  • Hardliners, especially among younger Revolutionary Guard members, feel Iran has been insufficiently aggressive; pressure on leaders to project deterrence.

  "There's a sense that Iran has not done enough to signal deterrence and that's why it's facing all of these defeats."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (25:21)

4. Risks and Scenarios: Will Strikes Work?

(25:46 – 34:06)

• Potential US or Israeli Military Action:

  • If strikes are limited (e.g., against military/nuclear sites), Iran likely restrains its response; true regime-change attempts would result in severe escalation.
  • The regime’s ideological core and patronage networks are sustaining pillars; decapitation wouldn’t guarantee democratic reform.

  "This regime will do what it needs...It is able to stay in power through ideological commitment and comfortable livings for supporters..."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (28:04)

• Regional Diplomacy:

  • For the first time, Middle East regional players (notably Qatar and Turkey) are mediating between the US and Iran to forestall military strikes.
  • Netanyahu’s hurried US visit underscores Israel’s anxiety, but the regional calculus is shifting as countries realign post-2020s.

  "The Turks have been very against some kind of US strike and have been playing a big role...that probably saved the Iranians from at least a military strike in the last few weeks."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (33:30)

5. Inside Iran: The Hope and Despair of Military Intervention

(35:22 – 42:30)

• Iranians’ Expectations and Betrayal:

  • Many ordinary Iranians, at least those willing to talk to Western reporters, have at times welcomed Israeli or US strikes out of desperation and exhaustion with repression.
  • Trump’s public threats gave hope for regime change but resulted in immense disillusionment when no action was taken.
  • Street protests radicalized quickly after electoral disappointments, feeding a feeling that all peaceful reform avenues are closed.

  "Our eyes are just fixed on the sky, just waiting for something to happen."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (36:57)

  "People kind of staying up at night when they hear news of like a. A ship moving closer to the coast...just waiting to see if that will happen."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (37:06)

• Aftermath of Strikes:

  • 12-Day War/Israel’s prior strikes did not produce mass anti-government protests; civilians suffered, infrastructure was damaged, and regime survived. Many lost hope in outside intervention as a strategy.

6. Future Scenarios: If the Regime Falls

(42:30 – 48:12)

• Regime Collapse What Next?

  • The most organized forces are still the government’s own militias (Basij, Revolutionary Guard); unions and civic groups are too repressed to seize power democratically.
  • Possibilities include a military-led government (like Egypt or Pakistan), a “compromise” clerical leader from the Khomeini family, or a perpetuation of dynastic politics in another guise.

  "Who's organized right now?...The Iranian government has done what it can...to repress any kind of organized group that could pose any sort of threat."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (43:43)

• Successor Politics:

  • Speculation exists about potential successors: Hassan Rouhani (cleric, former President), Hassan Khomeini (reformist descendant of the revolutionary founder), or Mojtaba Khamenei (Supreme Leader’s son).
  • Succession via family undermines the regime’s own ideological claims.

  "This government was supposed to replace a hereditary system that passed power on from a father to a son. But I guess that's how some of these revolutionary systems go..."
  — Yeganeh Torbati (47:48)

7. Book Preview — “Stolen: Betrayal and Hope in Modern Iran”

(48:12 – 49:24)

• Yeganeh Torbati’s upcoming book will narrate the history and contradictions of post-1979 Iran through the lens of everyday lives, not just elite politics. Release date: June 2, 2026.

8. “Lasers in Texas”: Bureaucratic Snafu & Drone Defense

(52:30 – 62:29)

• FAA Airspace Drama (El Paso):

  • The FAA abruptly closed and then reopened Southwest Texas airspace due to the Pentagon’s secret plans to test a high-powered laser anti-drone defense system.
  • CBP, using borrowed Pentagon tech, mistakenly shot down a party balloon instead of a cartel drone.
  • The incident exposes deep interagency communication failures, leading to wild speculation about war, cartel attacks, and executive retaliation.
  • The hosts reflect on the seriousness of drone threats (including false positives—recalling 2024’s “drone scare”) and on the strategic value of laser weapons, which promise cheaper, inexhaustible defense compared to missile interceptors.
  • Note: future episode promised on the “great balloon shootdown” of 2024.

  "They blasted a party balloon with a high powered counter drone laser out of the sky."
  — Jake Sullivan (53:36)

  "In an administration that struggles...to work in a cohesive, coherent fashion, these kinds of things can be quite disruptive..."
  — John Finer (57:04)

9. Lighter Ending: Olympic Host Advantage & Whiteboard Competitions

(62:29 – 66:08)

• Jake observes the host nation Olympics “home court advantage” effect—with Italy surging in medals.

• The hosts reminisce about promoting Olympic standings in their West Wing office, bantering about hockey rivalries and national pride.

  "Italy, which has never been a country that has contended in the Winter Olympics at the top of medal count..."
  — Jake Sullivan (63:08)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “The gap has really never been wider between Iranian society and the state.” — Yeganeh Torbati (05:59)
• “This is the darkest moment that I think Iranians are living through.” — Yeganeh Torbati (11:16)
• “I don’t see evidence that the government itself is seeing kind of its forces fall away. It seems quite solid and able to repress these protests...” — Yeganeh Torbati (16:48)
• “People kind of staying up at night...just waiting to see if that [an attack] will happen.” — Yeganeh Torbati (37:06)
• “They blasted a party balloon with a high powered counter drone laser out of the sky.” — Jake Sullivan (53:36)

Key Takeaways

• Iran’s regime has survived its harshest crisis in decades through violence, cohesion, and lack of organized opposition; prospects for reform or collapse are dim.
• Regional diplomacy is more multilayered than during earlier nuclear talks, with Qatar, Turkey, and others acting as mediators.
• Many Iranians, deeply embittered, have lost faith in internal reform—some even hope for outside intervention, but are repeatedly disillusioned.
• The US government’s coordination failures, illustrated comically but tellingly in the Texas “laser balloon” incident, pose real operational and communication risks.
• Technological advances in drone and counter-drone warfare are crucial, but so is sober governance.
• Olympic success tells us as much about investment and organization as talent—a lesson less trivial than it sounds.

For Listeners Who Haven't Tuned In

This episode offers a rare, unvarnished look at the landscape of modern Iran—its traumatized people, ruthless leadership, and the regional chessboard—grounded in lived experience and insider analysis. The second half matches world-historical stakes with government-cafeteria comedy (lasers! balloons!), revealing how modern tactical threats, diplomatic frictions, and absurdities all coexist in today’s “long game.”