Podcast Summary: “Trump’s Greenland Gambit”

The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer
Vox Media Podcast Network | January 23, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jake Sullivan (Biden’s National Security Advisor) and Jon Finer (Principal Deputy) unpack the renewed turmoil surrounding President Trump’s escalated push to acquire Greenland, as made newly relevant by his statements and actions at Davos. The conversation examines the roots and fallout of Trump’s “Greenland gambit,” its effect on Europe and NATO, and how it fits into a larger global context—especially vis-à-vis China and Russia. The episode also explores the dramatic speech by Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, and concludes with a “net assessment” of the first year of Trump’s second administration in great power competition.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Planes, Iran, and Setting the Stage

[00:50–04:45]

• The episode opens with a brief aside on the outdated state of U.S. government planes, including Air Force One, which forced Trump to return to base with mechanical issues en route to Davos, introducing the theme of U.S. prestige and operational capacity.
• Quick update on Iran: Despite a major crackdown on Iranian protesters, Trump—while threatening significant military action—has so far only ordered military buildups and set the “theater” for possible strikes. The hosts advise listeners to “watch this space.”
  • Quote Jake Sullivan [05:36]: “All of that's possible. I suspect we'll be back on this issue before too long... But for now, we could turn to the issue of this week.”

2. Greenland: How Did We Get Here?

[10:13–19:05]

• The heart of the episode: President Trump’s campaign to acquire Greenland from Denmark is elevated, with hints he would use force, and threats of tariffs against European countries uncooperative with U.S. aims.
  • Memorable quote Jake Sullivan [01:00]: “A lot of this really comes down to Trump's mindset: that to be a historic president, you need to add to the United States’ sovereign land, and that adding Greenland would put him in the history books.”
• Trump sends a letter to Norway’s prime minister (copying many European leaders), stating that due to not winning the Nobel Prize he will now focus “less purely on peace” and more on “complete and total control of Greenland.”
• U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on countries obstructing the Greenland acquisition (potentially jumping to 25% by June), and threatens 200% tariffs on French goods after Macron’s strong rebuttal.
• European reactions were divided: France resolutely opposed Trump; the UK declined to join counter-tariffs, and Poland distanced itself. Europe begins moving toward a collective response.
  • Quote Jake Sullivan [14:40]: “Overall, the immediate European reaction was somewhat divided... momentum was beginning to build for some European response.”

3. Davos – Trump Steps Back from the Brink

[16:45–24:00]

• At Davos, two key developments seem to rein in Trump’s aggression: the U.S. stock market dips on his Greenland threats, and European far-right parties (usually pro-Trump) condemn him for “commercial blackmail.”
• Danish pension funds quietly begin shifting out of U.S. Treasuries—significant as a warning sign to global markets.
• In his address, Trump claims he will not use force or war to seize Greenland, openly referencing the stock market:
  • Quote Jake Sullivan [20:09]: “He likes saying the quiet part out loud... he says, I mean, our stock market took the first dip yesterday because of Iceland... He kept calling Greenland ‘Iceland.’”
• Trump simultaneously derides NATO as useless, despite Denmark being one of America’s most active and loyal military allies over the last two decades.
  • Quote Jake Sullivan [22:44]: “NATO does nothing for us. NATO has never helped the United States. We’d be there for NATO, but NATO is essentially useless...”

4. Military Sled Dogs & U.S. Quirks

[23:53–25:40]

• Trump publicly mocks Denmark’s “dog sled troops” in Greenland; Jake and Jon clarify these Sirius Dog Sled Patrols have historical and strategic value dating back to WWII, debunking Trump’s dismissal and connecting to U.S. use of dolphins and sea lions in military harbor protection.

5. After Davos – What Now?

[29:31–34:03]

• Trump calls for immediate negotiations for the “U.S. acquisition of Greenland,” backing off on force but seeking talks centered on ownership, aligning with his worldview that defending allies only matters “if we own the land.”
  • Quote Jon Finer [29:31]: “He called for immediate negotiations to discuss... the U.S. acquisition of Greenland... the big question is how do the Europeans respond, and do they have alternatives to out-and-out sale?”
• Denmark and Greenland are open to negotiations for access, but not for ceding sovereignty—paralleling the recent collapse of alliance trust.
• Trump's focus isn’t just strategic but symbolic: he desires lasting presidential legacy via territorial acquisition.
  • Quote Jake Sullivan [36:05]: “A lot of this really comes down to Trump's mindset... that adding Greenland would put him in the annals, in the history books...”

6. Geopolitical Ramifications: Russia, China, and Canada’s New Path

[43:14–52:44]

• Russia is “cheering” the crisis as it sows NATO discord, drawing parallels to Crimea.
• China sees U.S. bullying as validating its own international narrative and as an opportunity to court spurned allies.
• Canada’s new PM Mark Carney, propelled to office by anti-Trump sentiment, visits China to forge economic ties and gives a bombshell Davos speech:
  • Quote Mark Carney (paraphrased by Sullivan) [44:38]: “We’re in the midst of a rupture, not a transition...”
  • Carney places the U.S. and China side-by-side as challenges requiring a “middle power” coalition, sees no returning to the old U.S.-Canada paradigm, and explicitly calls for Canadian—and global—strategic autonomy.
• Macron and other European leaders echo this turn toward strategic hedging and direct Chinese investment, further isolating the U.S.
  • Quote Jon Finer [49:14]: “America’s closest friend... is just now going in fundamentally different directions, with no reason to believe that’s going to change, even in the aftermath of this administration.”

7. Net Assessment: One Year of Trump and the Balance of Power

[57:43–76:03]

• Finer explains “net assessment” as a Pentagon-style analysis of the relative strengths and weaknesses of great powers (military, tech, economy, etc.).
• Case for Trump: Temporary reduction in U.S. trade deficit with China, AI strength (for now), increased European NATO defense spending, U.S. deals characterized as “making America win,” U.S. efforts to drive China/Russia/Iran/Cuba out of Venezuela.
  • Quote Jon Finer [60:45]: “They are trying to buy the U.S. time and a degree of calm to reduce our dependencies... to shore up our foundation of strength...”
• Case against: Many U.S. advantages (innovation, research, universities, ability to attract talent, allies) are being eroded by Trump’s approach. Technology sales (AI GPUs) help China close the gap. U.S. global leadership and alliance systems are fracturing. Belt and Road is resurging as U.S. development pullbacks create vacuums.
  • Quote Jake Sullivan [66:02]: “The alliance system that shored up so much of America’s inherent advantages… have been quite dramatically undermined.”
  • Quote Jon Finer [73:01]: “Belt and Road spent more than $200B, a 75% increase from 2024... as the U.S. has stepped back, a very fertile ground for China...”
• China’s view, per Tsinghua IR dean: The U.S. itself is becoming more authoritarian and empire-like, treating allies as resource extraction zones and eroding shared values.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote / Moment | |-----------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:00 | Sullivan | “Trump’s mindset... that adding Greenland would put him in the history books.” | | 20:09 | Sullivan | On Trump at Davos: “He likes saying the quiet part out loud...and kept calling Greenland ‘Iceland.’” | | 22:44 | Sullivan | “NATO does nothing for us...NATO is essentially useless from the point of view of the United States.” | | 29:31 | Finer | “He called for immediate negotiations...not just for access but for ownership.” | | 36:05 | Sullivan | “A lot of this really comes down to Trump's mindset...you need to add to the sovereign land of the United States” | | 44:38 | Sullivan | (Paraphrasing Carney) “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” | | 49:14 | Finer | “America’s closest friend...is now going in fundamentally different directions.” | | 66:02 | Sullivan | “The alliance system that shored up so much of America's inherent advantages...have been quite dramatically undermined.” | | 73:01 | Finer | “Belt and Road spent more than $200B... as the US has stepped back, a very fertile ground for China.” |

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:50–05:15] – Air Force One breakdown & Iran update
• [10:13–19:05] – The escalation of Trump’s Greenland strategy and European responses
• [16:45–24:00] – Davos: Trump walks back force, market pressure and intra-European right-wing backlash
• [25:40] – Allies’ animal military units (Denmark’s dog sleds/U.S. dolphins)
• [29:31–34:03] – What next for Greenland talks; Trump’s quest for legacy
• [43:14–57:43] – Broader geopolitical consequences: Russia, China, Canada’s “rupture” speech
• [57:43–76:03] – Net assessment: where the global balance stands after Trump’s first year

Tone & Style

Jake and Jon’s style is measured, analytical, and occasionally wry or self-deprecating. The dialogue is laced with behind-the-scenes anecdotes about government life, direct but respectful political critique, and a sense of historical perspective.

Takeaways for the Uninitiated

• Trump’s push for Greenland represents a new and fraught moment not only for U.S.–Danish relations but for wider transatlantic and great power politics.
• His wielding of tariffs and disregard for NATO are fraying America’s alliances and providing Russia and China with new opportunities.
• Canada’s official pivot away from default U.S. alignment, articulated by Mark Carney, signals a possible realigning of global alliances—potentially a historic break.
• While the Trump administration claims some wins, the hosts argue U.S. structural strengths are being eroded in ways that may be hard to recover, especially in alliances and innovation.
• The future of the U.S.-led world order, they warn, is more uncertain than at any moment in the last century.

Further Reading & Recommendations

• Jon Finer: Recommends satirical novels Our Man in Havana (Graham Greene) and Tailor of Panama (John Le Carré)—“even satire can be a better way to understand the moment.”
• Jake Sullivan: Jaber Crow (Wendell Berry, “about meaning and belonging to community”) and science-heavy sci-fi Project Hail Mary (Andy Weir).

For more analysis, subscribe to the show’s Substack or email them at longgamevoxmedia.com