Dan Lefkovitz (2:54)

Okay. And you note in the paper that the success rates for active managers in fixed income are a lot higher than for active stock pickers.

Eric Jacobson (3:02)

They are. You know, I hesitate to say this is the data and this is how it is because I think there's a tendency to try and do that to prove a point. You know, at any given time you will find that there are going to be trailing periods where it looks much better for active or looks better for passive. There's underlying reasons for that that, you know, I kind of get into in the paper a little bit in terms of the way that indexes are concentrated and what have you. But the fact is, is that if you are not charging too much money and you have good, competent and not overly aggressive management on the bond side, generally speaking, you can outperform indexes reasonably well over periods of time. As long as you're dealing with areas of the bond market that have inefficiencies, the more inefficient the parts are, the super highly liquid parts like the treasury market, what have you, a little bit closer to stocks in terms of the way they operate. A little harder to beat, but it's definitely doable.

Dan Lefkovitz (3:59)

Okay. Okay. So the traditional argument that I think a lot of our listeners will be familiar with is that whereas stock indexes are dominated by the most successful companies, the biggest winners on the bond side, bond indexes are dominated by the most indebted. You do mention this argument in the paper, but it's not central to your argument, it seems.

Eric Jacobson (4:20)

Right. I mean, it's a key point. And I think it also depends on where you are in the different corners of the bond market and how it works. But it really is a truism across the board in the sense that the more debt the underlying entities take on, there's going to be some sort of additional risk in there and they do wind up dominating indexes. It's not the central reason, though. The central reason that I think it's important to understand that active investing in bonds can work well, is that overall, the bond market is extremely fragmented. It's got multiple sectors and subsectors. One thing I would just say is sort of a cornerstone to the point is this. When you look at stocks, we're generally talking about common stocks. A common stock is a common stock is a common stock. And what I mean by that is, in terms of structure, it is the sort of base, fundamental unit of ownership for a public company. And yes, there can occasionally be little tweaks and differences in some things, but generally speaking, it's the same thing. Bonds, even from the very same company, can have dozens of varieties, even more potentially depending on the banks and so forth sometimes. So even within the same sector and segment, just say corporate bonds, you can have dozens and dozens of different things going on from one bond to the next in terms of whether it's a call feature or some other issue that even affects the credit. And so you can't just go to the market and say, I want a bond from that company, expecting it to be the same as any other bond from that company. You can do that with a stock, and when you do, it's very easy. You know what you're getting. The trading is extremely, you know, people know about situations where you're talking about milliseconds of trading to get efficiency. It doesn't work like that with bonds at all. Because in order to be a competent buyer or seller of a bond, you need to know a lot about it. You need to know all of its features, you need to know everything there is to know about the credit. And that just. It's an entirely different situation.

Dan Lefkovitz (6:23)

So you talked about inefficiencies in the bond market and its fragmentation. What do you see as some of the most powerful levers that active bond managers can pull?

Eric Jacobson (6:33)

So it's an interesting way to pose the question because, you know, in terms of power, if you're talking about outperforming over long periods of time, it's almost like the turtle in the hare sort of question in the sense that to be a really good bond manager over long periods of time, the best thing you can do probably is try and find things to do in the marketplace that are what we might call structural trades areas of the bond market that there are generally either inefficiencies that are sort of common to that area, that because of some of the things I talked about, whether it's areas that investors tend not to go to. For example, there are a number of parts of the bond market where the securities are very complex, along the lines of what I mentioned a minute ago. That's especially so in parts of the mortgage market. What that does is it limits the audience for those securities because, you know, your average individual investor is not going to be buying them, whereas, you know, individuals trade stocks up and down all the time. You're not going to want to do that with a lot of these kinds of bonds. So when there's less of an audience, when the bond issues themselves sometimes might be a little smaller. So not only do you have something that's very different, but you have a smaller pool and a smaller set of investors, it's possible to find things that are a little bit cheaper than you would expect them to be just based on those factors. And if you know where to look, you can actually do that repeatedly. You're not going to make a ton of money overnight. But that's not really the idea. The idea is if you do this consistently, you can pick up a good amount. We think of it in terms of spread, usually how much you're going to make over a Treasury bond, for example, in terms of yield. But there are lots of ways to do that, and you chug along over time. A lot of people think that the way to do that, the big levers that you mentioned have to do with managing your interest rate sensitivity and trying to get out in front of a market where you expect interest rates to start rising. It's possible to do that, and you can have success periodically, but over long periods of time, that's very, very difficult. So making those big market decisions is a lot harder to do consistently over time. And so my whole story here really is about the fact that these inefficiencies give you an advantage of, you know, sort of slow and steady. Take advantage of them and do it over long periods of time. Don't cost too much while you're doing it, and, you know, you can outperform over long stretches.

Dan Lefkovitz (8:50)

And one thing that caught my eye in the paper, you talk about how the toolkit for bond investors has expanded in terms of using ETFs and using swaps. Can you talk about that?

Eric Jacobson (9:00)

Sure. So, you know, I think that the closest thing that the average investor might have a sense of understanding is, you know, stock options. And the key to that, of course, is that if you have a stock, let's just say IBM, we'll use an old one there, and you have options on IBM. The idea is you can get market exposure in one way or another, whether it's long exposure where you're exposed to the stock going up and down, or short exposure where you're going to get the opposite effect. You can do that with options. So there's multiple ways really. Right. You have similar things in the bond market, except the menu is very wide. Right. So you do have options. But like in the mortgage market, for example, there are forward contracts. People perhaps have heard of credit default swaps. There's all kinds of credit default swaps. And some of them are sort of indexed in a way. Some of them are individual names. The bottom line is, is that for any different part of the fixed income area, you might have, for example, an ETF that focuses on that area. You might have futures contracts that can get you exposure to that area. There may be options down the line. There are options on swaps and there are things like that. And the reason that that's useful to understand is that a lot of those markets can be dislocated, even if by a little bit. Now, periodically, and sometimes there are structural market reasons. There's all kinds of reasons that this might happen that really do generate some sort of inefficiency. So for example, some of the big, well known bond managers that do a lot of business in bonds will often, for example, make a decision whether they're going to buy the bond or they're going to use what we would call a synthetic, like a derivative, like a credit default swap, to either get exposure to that bond or not. And a lot of times they'll just be making that decision as they go along based on whether one looks cheaper than the other, which happens quite a bit. And I think that can be scary to some people, especially when you start throwing around the word derivative. But there are ways to use derivatives that are not especially dangerous, and this is one of them, where you're really just, you're controlling your risk, but you're just trying to take advantage of efficiencies in the marketplace. As you alluded, that's actually a pretty good strategy.

Dan Lefkovitz (11:16)

You mentioned a number of historical case studies. The euro crisis around 2011, automobile debt in the early 2000s that sort of resulted in distortions in the market. Can you talk about those and the implications for indexes and active bond management?

Eric Jacobson (11:34)

Sure. So this is where the question about indebtedness and indexing comes in. And the point isn't necessarily that you shouldn't index, but it's important to understand that especially with fixed income. You mentioned, right at the get go, when you're looking at stock investing, you're really, in a sense, putting chips down on the American economy or the global economy, if you will. And the stock market, because you expect business to be successful over long periods of time, you expect it to grow. And the idea behind owning stocks is to get exposure to that underlying economic growth engine that drives the value of companies up. Well, in the bond market, the first thing to remember is when you just start and you move right over the bond market, you're really just talking about corporate bonds, right? But the fact is that you have government bonds as well. You've got securitized bonds, which focuses a lot on the mortgage market. And all of these areas are different than stocks because as you alluded, they're a form of debt, they're indebtedness. And so you asked about the Europe situation and the automakers. So the automakers are a really good example because you had a period of time early in the 2000s when automakers and suppliers and so forth were becoming very, very indebted for various reasons. And within the corporate bond indexes, they started to take up a larger and larger chunk of exposure. Now, if that were to happen in a stock index, you might argue, well, is the market overvalued or not? But the idea would be it's happening because they're doing well, and whether it's growth or anticipated growth or what have you. Whereas the reason that these companies became larger exposures in bond indexes is they were borrowing and borrowing and borrowing more money. And, you know, if you look at what happened at different periods, you'll find that, you know, it doesn't always happen this way. But if you look at GM and Ford as examples, they became very, very indebted and eventually they both filed for bankruptcy. And that was bad for the, for the indexes. And the point there really is, is that if you're just getting blanket exposure to the market, you're leaving yourself exposed to those kind of dynamics. And it's sort of the opposite thinking of, if you're going to do it with stocks. The idea, again, it's not necessarily you don't ever want to be exposed to indexes, but if you're an active manager and you're choosing among corporate borrowers as an example, and you're building a corporate bond portfolio, and you see that the auto companies, as an example, are really starting to come under strain. They're borrowing more money, they're becoming more indebted, they're more heavily leveraged. Those are not bonds you're going to look for. In fact, you're probably going to want to minimize your exposure to them in some way or another. And that's sort of a natural economic decision there. And that makes a big difference and kind of thing ideal to try and avoid if you can. And the key thing there is when you look at some of these other examples, you mentioned Europe at one point Greece became very, very indebted. And if you were in a European government index, for example, you're getting much more exposure to Greece as you go along because they're becoming more and more indebted. And it seems like sort of an obvious thing, but you don't want that to happen.

Dan Lefkovitz (14:58)

Okay. You also talk about the surge in treasury issuance after the 2008 financial crisis. What sort of implications did that have?

Eric Jacobson (15:08)

So this is a tricky one because I think a lot of people start to think and they talk in terms of bubbles. And it's a whole different conversation when you get to treasury bonds because you're really the issuance of treasury bonds and the price levels are based on much bigger picture issues with the economy and government policy. But the fact of the matter is that and other things have happened since then, too. But when the government starts to borrow more and Treasuries take up a bigger, bigger chunk of the market, especially if the government is borrowing at longer maturities, that literally changes the face of the market. And that can be a very big deal to bond investors because over the course of decades, if you think, well, I'm going to own these bonds, I'm going to own bonds for stability or at least some sort of hedge against what's going on in stocks, you generally have an idea. This is how much volatility I'm willing to accept. And this is how bond indexes generally look. And so I'm going to try and get that kind of exposure. Well, at times during which either the government has borrowed a lot more and the government bonds have taken up larger chunks of the indexes, or we've also seen cases where corporate borrowers have started borrowing at the longer end of the maturity spectrum. It has literally changed the face of the entire quote, unquote bond market as it's measured by indexes. And we've gone through a period of time where if you just look at the bond market as a whole, that takes into account those large markets, the treasury market, the corporate market, it's more sensitive to interest rate risk now than it was just a few years ago. It's gone up and down a little bit since the financial crisis, but it really came together a lot. Eventually, when the treasury market grew, the corporate market grew and shifted to longer maturities, and those sort of took over in terms of the flavor of the index being a lot more. When I say the index indexes that cover the broad bond market having much more interest rate sensitivity.

Dan Lefkovitz (17:05)

Right. Our colleague Christine Benz, the anchor host of this podcast, wrote an article recently about how investors seem to be taking a really tactical approach to fixed income investing. Swapping in and out of cash, taking bets on interest rates. Yet the investor return data show that they haven't done a great job of timing their purchases and sales. Why do you think that is?

Eric Jacobson (17:28)

It's just really, really hard to get the timing right under any circumstances. Back in the 80s and early 90s, especially because you had interest rates get to really long extremes. During the mid-80s, for example, late 70s, early 80s, there was a sense that you could do this, you could bet against interest rates, et cetera. There are all kinds of reasons. It became a lot more clear in the mid-90s, for example, a lot of institutional investors said, you know what, this is not a great thing to do because if you're wrong and you bet against interest rates too strongly, the payoff isn't good enough on the upside and it can be really bad on the downside, and it's very hard to do it well consistently. There have been a few managers over the decades that have done reasonably well with it. Very, very, very few. One of them was Bill Gross at Pimco. He hasn't been managing money publicly for about 10 years, but even he made mistakes sometimes. The thing that a lot of people didn't realize is he did it in a pretty measured way. And it wasn't the only lever that he was pulling in terms of how to manage bond money. Even though he had a big reputation for making good interest rate beyond that, it's not something that you can really do well consistently over and over again over long periods of time. Certainly when those bets are bigger, I'm not going to say it's like predicting the weather. There's a little bit more to it than that. But there's lots of reasons that interest rates move back and forth. And it's not always that easy to sense what those are going to be. And I sort of jumped right into that explanation. I know you were talking about going in bonds and cash, but that's really what. What a lot of people are focused on is, are interest rates too low are words, they're going to go up. It's also very common. We don't Hear much about it lately, but it's common for people to try and time the high yield bond market and jump in one month, jump out the other month, et cetera. But as you alluded, it's very hard to do that consistently because ultimately what you're dealing with are market dynamics and trading dynamics that they may not necessarily be anchored in anything super fundamental at any given moment. They may have a lot to do with market temperament and swings in expectations. Doing that is more of speculation than it is investing in some ways.

Dan Lefkovitz (19:36)

Yeah, well, 2022 seems to be an example. I mean, it kind of looks obvious in retrospect. Yields rose dramatically and the Fed and other central banks were responding to inflation by jacking up interest rates. But it seems to have caught a.

Eric Jacobson (19:49)

Lot of people off guard. Yeah, it's a very, very difficult period to look back on because what sometimes happens in bond markets is you can get to what we think of as kind of extremes. For example, when interest rates get and start thinking, well, it's obvious they're going to go up and it's going to create problems, there's going to be a crash, et cetera. The problem with bond markets, especially when you are talking about those that are anchored toward government bonds, is that sometimes those trends are structural. In a sense they happen for a reason that doesn't change for a very long time. So for example, after the financial crisis, almost immediately in fact, or during the financial crisis, people were already talking about how indebted the government was going to get and how low interest rates were going to be and how it was going to turn into a bubble. And we had to really be worried about interest rates rising. Very shortly after the financial crisis, in fact, it generated so much angst and so forth, there were whole new kinds of funds that were created to try and take advantage of that by saying, well, we're going to keep interest rates low, we're going to do everything else, but we're going to protect you from rising interest rates because inevitably they're going to spike up. Well, that inevitability lasted for years and years. There were reasons that interest rates stayed low for a very long time after that. And knowing exactly when they're going to spike up is very difficult. And so if you had position your portfolio as an example after the financial crisis, expecting that interest rates are going to spike at any time, in other words, we're going to have a bear market like we had in 2022, you would have sat on the sidelines for years and it would have cost you not just in terms of depending on how you did it, it would cost you in terms of the opportunity cost, but also, you know, in a bond world you can actually pay in a sense if you're buying bonds and then hedging out the interest rate risk that's costing you. So that can happen with credit markets too. Now eventually credit markets, when they do have sort of a bubble situation like we're talking about, those are a little more likely to pop because they're a little more drawn by market forces rather than big, big economic forces and central bank decisions. But even then, bubbles can last a whole lot longer than people realize and there's always a risk of staying out too long. I think the problem with 2022 is that you hit a couple things all happen at one time. Covid really, really changed the dynamics of everything because of all the central bank intervention and so forth. So yes, could we look back and say, well, it should have been obvious that this was going to happen, but the problem is you'd have to really, really know an awful lot about inflation. You would have had to been right and you would have had to really, really know how soon it was going to happen. So yeah. After the financial crisis, were you right in thinking that eventually interest rates were going to have to go up? Yeah, but it took, I don't know, more than a decade, decade and a half. So that's really hard work.

Dan Lefkovitz (22:57)

So let me ask you this, Eric. Do you think that going passive and fixed income is a mistake for investors?

Eric Jacobson (23:03)

I don't. I think if you are looking for some sort of core exposure to especially very high quality, highly liquid parts of the bond market and you're not going to pay very much at all because hopefully most index funds are going to be pretty cheap. You can get a pretty good exposure that way and not really give much up. For the most part though, you're going to be talking about Treasuries and high quality corporate bonds and maybe sort of the, the broad mortgage bond market. But there are a lot of things that are going to be left out if you just buy your sort of plain vanilla core market exposure that you're not going to get exposure to in the bond market. A lot of people may have heard of Clos, their collateralized loan oblig. There are other parts of the bond market that, and I'd have to go down a long list on the mortgage side of things that had become more and more popular with active managers, but just don't really exist in the big indexes and even in sort of niche things. It's very hard to get index exposure to them. I mentioned those. There's also non agency mortgages that are not anything like they were 15 years ago after the financial crisis. There are different kinds now that are, I'm not going to say they're automatically safer because anything, you know, there's, there's all kinds of risks that can develop, but they give lots and lots of choices and opportunities to active managers that you're just not going to get in a core index. So again, I'm definitely not against fixed income indexing at all. But you certainly want it to be cheap and you want to recognize that you're not going to have the breadth of market that you might get by being more active. And you also want to recognize that because of the way the bond market has evolved since the financial crisis in the last several years, you may be taking on more interest rate risk than you thought were because say five, 10 years ago the bond market was probably a little bit less rate sensitive than it is today. So you just want to make sure you understand that or if you're working with a financial planner, that they're taking that into account.

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Dan Lefkovitz (25:29)

We've talked a lot on this podcast about the rise of private markets and how more capital formation is happening outside of public stock and bond exchanges. We've talked a lot about the equity side, but. But I wanted to ask you about private debt. I imagine this is an area where you've seen a lot of change over the course of your career. Maybe first you could just talk about the nomenclature, the terminology people use private debt, people use private credit. How do you like to think about these terms?

Eric Jacobson (25:56)

Sure. Well, it's a really apt question because the term, if you look in the materials and you talk to people, you find out that really the term private debt, that really only means in the grand scheme of things that a piece of debt was originated or issued by a non bank actor. I'll say, but really a non bank institution use some sort of other party. And so the big firms that People are familiar with from the private equity space, for example, like Blackstone and KKR and Carlyle. These firms are not banks, but many of them are involved in helping essentially loan money to companies and selling that debt to other people. For example, that is in and of itself the word private debt. Now but when you get down below that, there are different kinds. You mentioned the difference between private debt and private credit. Well, generally speaking, private credit, especially in today's world really just normally means what they will call direct lending to middle market companies. In other words, borrowing that is set up by these companies on behalf of. When I say these companies, I'm sorry, these big money managers, private equity companies also to lend money to smaller and mid sized companies rather than usually the very largest. And that kind of direct lending. And when that's done, that kind of debt is usually some sort of private placement. Not just privately issued, but privately placed, which means it can only be bond sold by certain investors. Generally speaking, depending on how it's structured, it can't be easily resold. And it usually is the kind of thing that once you buy it, it sits on your balance sheet or in your fund and it doesn't move after that. So it can be very illiquid. Now the trade off is you should make a lot more money in exchange for that. There are other parts of the private debt market though that aren't technically thought of as private credit. These have become very big sort of quietly in the last few years. You might hear the term asset backed finance. And basically what that is is a way that they find to take a pool of assets that are going to generate cash flows and build a security around it. Not entirely unlike mortgage securities you've heard about, maybe asset backed securities, commercial mortgage backed securities. The only difference is they're done in this sort of private space by a non bank actor. And they may be sort of specialized depending on what they're investing in. But I suspect people have heard over the years that at one point David Bowie securitized his record catalog and the royalties from that. Well, that is a form of asset backed security. And that is the kind of market that we're talking about here. It's sort of a customized asset backed finance market. But you're also finding that they're finding creative ways to do that with very, very large pools of assets. So even then when they create these asset backed finance deals, generally speaking, a lot of these, they put them together, they do it privately, but then they securitize it, which means they put those sort of legal Wrap around it and they make it easier to trade. And those tend to be a lot more fungible. That's not quite the right word, but much easier to trade and more liquid than you might anticipate. When someone says private and you're thinking of that direct lending, where it's just basically like a loan that stays in your portfolio and doesn't move, can be very, very different things.

Dan Lefkovitz (29:09)

Okay, well, along with your colleagues on the Morningstar Manager research team, you've been covering funds that offer exposure to private credit to retail investors. These are mutual funds. ETFs. 40 Act. I want to start by asking you about an ETF that you've written about with the ticker PR I V. It was a joint vent between State street and Apollo. Can you talk about what happened there?

Eric Jacobson (29:31)

Sure. Well, this is a really good example because when they first started publicizing that this fund was coming, everybody was making a very big deal about the fact that it had private in the name. And like I said, people think of private, they tend to think of that direct, private credit, direct lending and that stuff is very illiquid. There's not a lot of public information about it. Like I said, it can't be easily traded among investors for contractual legal reasons. And to put a lot of that into a mutual fund or an ETF strikes many people as kind of risky because if it's not easily traded, it's not easily priced. Especially in the case of an etf, for example, where you have potentially cash flows going in and out very quickly and the fund company can't actually ever close an etf. It strikes people that that's going to be a big problem potentially. And the fact of the matter is, is that what they are doing, what they did do with the State Street ETF and a couple others that they've rolled out since is they have some of that private credit direct lending that I was talking about, but they actually hold a lot more of that asset backed finance stuff that I was referring to. So even though some of that asset backed finance stuff starts out kind of customized, it's a special deal and it's done not through a bank and not necessarily in a publicly syndicated market that we might talk about eventually. They package it up, they securitize it. Like I said, they get industry standard identifiers for Q numbers that we talk about. It may not be able to be sold on a one by one basis to an individual investor, but most stuff in big bond funds today isn't necessarily sold that way anyway. And as long as they do it that way, they get those industry identifiers and it's easy to trade them. They tend to be much more liquid than people expect. So ultimately the State street funds that I'm talking about are not nearly as risky and as illiquid, generally speaking as people I think thought initially. Now granted, they may not also be the high flyers that I think some people thought they might turn out to be also.

Dan Lefkovitz (31:34)

Okay, the team has written about something called level three assets as something that investors should be paying attention to. Can you talk about what those are?

Eric Jacobson (31:42)

Sure. So those private deals that I was talking about a minute ago that are not easily traded, they're privately placed as well. And when I say privately placed, I mean sort of directly to a buyer. You know, they're not registered with the sec, et cetera. Those are things that cannot be easily valued. And that's really what level three is all about. When we talk about level three, we're talking about fair value levels. And that construct is an accounting construct. And you know, accounting standards that are set by the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Regular companies, when they report their assets use this as well. And at a very sort of high level. Level one assets are things that are real easily priced because they're Exchange traded. Level 2 assets may not be traded on exchanges, but there's all kinds of ready inputs that you can use to price them. Whether it's looking at very similar securities, using quotes from broker dealers, all kinds of things like that. Level three is something that cannot valued what they call readily observable inputs. And that normally means that some level of actual hand pricing, if you will, has to be done by whoever is reporting the value of that asset. And when you get to that level, you can expect that that kind of thing is not going to be liquid. And so this is a perfect example that you mentioned when we look at the SSGA fund, because the, that direct lending, privately placed stuff almost by definition always has to be level three. And that's going to be potentially the least liquid stuff. The asset backed securities that we were talking about earlier that involve other pools of assets that are not just direct lending, but maybe the securitization of one of the big things lately was data centers. They put the data centers in what they call a special vehicle, if you will, and they sell interests in that to investors. That's a kind of asset backed security, an asset backed finance deal. And as long as it's wrapped up in the right packaging and it becomes easily sold, then you can put it in level two and you can quote the price on a regular basis much more easily, much more transparently. You expect that to be more liquid. The problem if you've got some sort of fund with lots and lots of level three exposure is that tells you that there's, there's a lot less transparency there. It also tells you that whatever prices they're using may have to be done somewhat manually and they may not compare perfectly to the prices that somebody else would put on them. And that's where you get that sort of stickiness of is this going to be a liquid, is this going to potentially create issues if they need to sell these?

Dan Lefkovitz (34:20)

For example, you've been involved in the coverage of some semi liquid funds, interval funds and the like that don't offer daily liquidity but hold private debt. And some of these funds have really, really appealing yields. Obviously liquidity is something to pay attention to here. What do you think investors need to know about these types of strategies?

Eric Jacobson (34:40)

Well, the first level of things, hopefully that they do wind up knowing is that many of these that we're hearing about today are structured either as interval funds, tender offer funds, which the two are very similar, but they have different requirements of the managers who how much they either have to or not offer you to get your money back, or some of these BDCs or business development companies. But the most common thing that you see among them, the way that they're sold to investors today is you can purchase them at some periodic amount of time, depending on how it's structured. In some cases almost anytime you can buy them, but you can only get some of your money back at certain times where you requested it back from the company. And generally they in some cases not even obligated to send it back to you. If they're in a crisis situation, they don't feel they can or they have to just fulfill say only 5% of the requests, I'm sorry, 5% of their assets, for example. And whether you get your money back at that time depends a lot on what other investors are asking for their money back. Do they have to make decisions and give it to you what they would call pro rata, where everybody just gets a piece of what they asked for. But the most important part there, of course, is that it's not the same as a regular mutual fund. It's not like an etf. You cannot just get your money back right when you want it. You can't just cash it in. And in some cases you may have to wait months if you are trying to get your entire investment back. That could take very long time, depending on how it's structured and whether or not there are other investors trying to get their money back. That's sort of a high level thing that's critical for people to understand. You just don't want to use those as a substitute for regular mutual funds. The other issue's a little stickier right now because there's a lot of debate on how risky these underlying markets are. And there's a line of thinking that says if you're investing in the kind of private debt that we're talking about, but it's inside of these quote unquote semi liquid structures. You can't think of it the same way you do an ETF or a mutual fund. You're just not going to be able to get your money out overnight the way you can with those. In fact, by law, by regulatory law, they have to allow you to do that. That these semi liquid funds have all different kinds of rules and restrictions. You may not be able to get your money out for a month or a quarter or even longer, depending on what's going on. So you have to really be comfortable sort of putting that money aside and recognizing I can't think about that as emergency money in any way, shape or form, and it could take me a lot longer. Now there's a line of thinking in the industry among some people that because of those restrictions and the fact that the asset managers have so much control over when and how much money their investors get back, that that creates some sort of safety with those underlying assets. The problem is, is that as we've seen in these markets in the past, there are unintended consequences. And so, for example, if there are other large investors that have any exposure to some of these assets and they run into other problems that can cause them to have to dump things that have an effect on this or that, and it can cause problems in the underlying markets. These underlying debt markets could wind up in much rougher shape than we expect in the wrong kind of crisis. Now, a lot of people are arguing that we're in sort of a bubble now and it's going to be just like the financial Crisis was in 2008. I'm not saying that. I think whatever we wind up having the next several years is going to wind up being different. The problem is that there are things that go on behind the scenes that you just don't understand in terms of risk and how they connect to each other. So, you know, you'll hear people talk about the financial crisis, even people who knew that the housing market was starting to hit a point where it wasn't sustainable. Even what the Fed and the government didn't understand is they did not understand how much risk was deeper, deeper, deeper into the marketplace because of the way that investors had exposure to these things. They didn't realize how levered the banks were to each other. They didn't realize the level of derivatives that have been written on it. And I realize that that's kind of arcane stuff and it doesn't sound like it's the same, and I'm not saying that it is. But the bottom line is when you have risk in financial markets, especially when there's fixed income involved, there are connections and what they call transmission linkages that are really, really hard to see because the information's not public. You don't know what the relationships are sometimes between these companies. So I think it's just really important to understand that especially in areas of the market that are sort of newer, like this huge expansion of private debt, or areas of the market that don't have as much transparency, you always have to be ready for the possibility that something can happen that nobody anticipated. That doesn't mean you should never take those risks. But especially in an area like this where so much is just not transparent. I mean, that's sort of part and parcel of this whole private concept is that when we think of non private, we talk about public. We're usually talking about things that are related to the banking system and the broader economy that are more heavily regulated. These are things that the Fed and the treasury can see more easily. And so we saw what happened in the great financial crisis with mortgages and they had a reasonably good view of things and they still didn't see what was coming because they didn't understand all these under the covers, if you will. That's not really the best way to put it. But connections between things that were not easily visible to the public. Well, in this case they can see even less because these markets are much more lightly regulated, if at all, in many cases.

Dan Lefkovitz (40:09)

Yeah. But the team has assigned some medalist ratings to private debt focused interval funds. Who do you think is doing this?

Eric Jacobson (40:16)

Well, sure. Well, I think at this point those that we have favored are ones where we have some familiarity with them, the public has some familiarity with them. They've been doing it for a long time and they're not necessarily taking dramatic levels of risk. We've given a positive ratings to a Pimco fund, for example. A lot of people don't realize they've been involved in what are essentially these kinds of private deals for a long, long time, for years, sort of behind the scenes. And some of it is in that asset backed finance area as well. So even though it's technically private because it's involving non bank actors, they are these assets backed holdings that firms like Pimco and several of their competitors had been involved with over decades in terms of the securitized markets. So they have a track record doing that well. They have the staffing, they have huge resources to manage it well. And they're not taking what we would necessarily think of as undue risks in the way that they're managing the money. And I suspect as we go along here, you'll see more and more shops and funds that will think pretty highly of. But it's going to be critical for people to understand risks because we won't necessarily say you should never buy something because it has X amount of risk. But you want to understand that sort of the baseline here for these private assets is you've got to be much more conscious of what you're doing. You have to make sure you're buying it in the right vehicle, if you will. These kinds of things that have sort of limited liquidity or limited ability, get your money out are kind of important because you don't want them to be forced to sell something if it's not easily sold.

Dan Lefkovitz (41:56)

All right, well, let's shift gears again. You've been at morningstar now over 30 years. Before coming to Morningstar, you were working in the mutual fund industry and you said you really wanted to come to Morningstar because you wanted to work on behalf of investors. It'd be interesting to hear about some of the practices that were common at the time that gave you pause.

Eric Jacobson (42:14)

Sure. Well, it was really interesting to me as, I mean, that was my first entree into the industry. And what I didn't really appreciate was that there were different motivations for people. I was pretty young and maybe a little naive, but what I didn't realize is that you could be an asset manager and be in that business to do it, to make a living and make money. But the outcome for your investors might not be the first thing on your mind. I think at the time it's sort of a general sense. I think depending on the kinds of firms you're talking about, a lot of them are like, well, we're going to deliver this service. We're going to do it okay. We're going to do it as well as anybody else. Maybe average or a little Better. And as long as we do that and we're consistent, then we can make money and everybody's going to be happy. We don't need to be the best. We certainly don't need to even be almost the best. There were firms at the time especially, I feel that they were sort of looking at it as sort of a profitability sweet spot. They didn't want to have star managers, they didn't want to have to pay too much for the resources that they were using to generate money management outcomes and so forth. And they did that sort of as an economization, if you will. Just don't overpay and keep as much of the profits as you can while you sort of keep your investors happy enough, if you will. It was almost mediocrity by design. I don't mean to be too pejorative, but I can tell you that when I went through one of my trainings at one point they said, listen, all mutual funds are the same. The only thing that distinguishes us is the service that we give. Well, a little bit of a simplification to say the least. And that bothered me. I can also tell you I had what I viewed as sort of the good fortune of having worked at a shop that wasn't necessarily a bad actor per se, but they were doing things that a lot of other companies were doing at the time in terms of gimmicky bond funds. As an example, if you go back and look, this is already years ago, but there were things called option income funds. There were funds that did things sort of cross hedging currencies to try and get an advantage one way or the other. And these were all things that were generally designed to generate yield. And that's how they were sold to investors. This fund has a bigger yield than that fund. You should buy it. And invariably a lot of these things blew up. And it was almost like every couple of years they would have something blow up and then sort of start over and come up with another gimmicky product. And the reason that I found that so valuable is it taught me a whole lot of lessons that we don't see these things quite as often anymore. Because I think a lot of people learn their lesson lessons. It's a very big help to see them coming. We always talk about history, not repeating, but rhyming. When we start to see things where it's clear that the interest of investors is to get a lot of yield, we know that there's almost always going to be some sort of potential for I'M not going to say chicanery per se, but something that isn't quite what you hope it would be. It's not going to be best practice, for example, or is going to involve a lot more risk. I think think investors understand that they're going to get. So for me, it was really valuable lesson and it wasn't unique to the company I worked for. There were a good handful of them. A lot of the big names from that period of time in the early 90s had been doing a lot of the same things and eventually a lot of those practices got weeded out. But every X number of years you get a whole new generation of people that are coming up with products and they think they can sell them and they start to get designs on something that is a little too clever by half.

Dan Lefkovitz (45:37)

Yeah. And when you joined Morningstar, you were specifically on the closed end fund research team. Can you talk about why closed ends were carved out into their own team at that point?

Eric Jacobson (45:49)

Well, I think we tended to think back then and we still do to some degree, although it's starting to change a little bit in terms of the delivery vehicle. So if a mutual fund was different than a closed end fund, it was different from a stock, et cetera. We have a lot more varieties now. We have separate accounts, obviously. We have institutional accounts, collective investment trusts as a whole. Morningstar, we've started to try and cover them from a research perspective more broadly and a little bit less focused on what the vehicle is and more about what the strategy is. You still have to take those vehicle things into account. But it's helpful to understand that if a fund company or not just a fun company, but an asset manager, they may be managing the same style but in four different packages, that it's helpful to understand that. And sometimes it's helpful to understand that just in terms of should you be buying it in this packaging or not. So back then, I think the closed end universe was sort of a. It's existed for decades and decades and it really was built around, especially with bonds, about generally a lot of yield. They trade like stocks and they generate a lot of yield. And I think the audience for them historically has been a little different because of that. And back at that time, it was the province of a lot of older investors that were comfortable and used to buying things based on yield. And we had that audience was very specific at that time. And we like to joke. A lot of our favorite investors read it at the library. It was a very popular product on the shelves. A lot of libraries but we eventually started to fold it in together with the rest of our coverage as we saw that the market was sort of not expanding that much. And like I said, a lot of the same managers were running similar strategies in different formats.

Dan Lefkovitz (47:38)

You mentioned Bill Gross earlier. You've had the privilege of interacting with some great investors, some titans of the mutual fund industry. What have been some of the most memorable experiences interacting with bond fund managers?

Eric Jacobson (47:51)

Well, I like to tell people I've had. I've had more than one try to get me fired. I've been very fortunate working for Morningstar. They've had our back since the beginning. One of the things I love about working here is we really prize that independence and research. And I don't have to be worried about, am I going to lose my job because I upset a manager. It's not fun. It's not fun to know that somebody was trying to get you fired. But it's happened a number of times. So I've got some of those drama stories, but one of my favorites, actually, I was thinking about is that we were talking about the financial crisis, and there was a time, real sort of in the middle of it. I think it was late 2008, and I was out in California for investment conference, and there was a fellow by the name of Dan Fuss. He's sort of a legendary fixed income investor from Illumis Sales. And we had agreed to do an interview on camera, but we were going to have breakfast first. And this was a period of time, I think it was before the TARP had been passed, if you will, by Congress. Some people may remember, I think it was about a $700 billion rescue package. And there was a period where the market was just all over the place out of fear that if they didn't pass, was going to wreck the economy, et cetera. And admittedly, I was young still, but I'd never seen anything like this before. And there was sort of a blood in the streets moment, and I didn't know what to expect. And we were all nervous. I had, you know, I had small children, and I was really anxious about the whole thing. And the funny contrast is I was in Southern California. It was beautiful outside, and there were palm trees. But I sat down to breakfast with Dan Fuss, and I had never seen a man so giddy about the investment markets. It was very sort of Warren Buffett moment, too. He was. At one point, he told me he was upset because nobody would sell him anything. He was excited because he saw big names that he had been following in the corporate market, for example, that had been beaten down in the sell off and he wanted to buy them. He had been waiting for these things to get cheap and he was ready to pounce. And his frustration was even though the prices were down in terms of how are they being marked in people's portfolios, there weren't people ready to sell. It wasn't as easy like with stocks like we talked about earlier, if nobody wanted to sell. It's really hard to buy, certainly in size if you want to spend millions of dollars. But it was really an interesting, instructive moment. Here's someone who had been through his lifetime of investing for decades and decades. What seemed to me perhaps the more precarious time in our lives in terms of a market crash or crashing market, if you will. But he was a dynal investor and he was there to invest and he was ready. He had been thinking about things very much the way sort of like I said before Warren Buffett thought about the world, he was waiting for this to happen and he was just giddy. And the contrast between that and my anxiety and the palm trees outside was, in hindsight, was kind of amusing. At the time I was a little more nervous.

Dan Lefkovitz (50:47)

Well, now you've got decades and decades of experience, Eric.

Eric Jacobson (50:50)

Yeah.

Dan Lefkovitz (50:52)

All right. Well, it's been great. It's been really instructive hearing about your experiences and all your insights. Thanks so much for joining us in Longview.

Eric Jacobson (50:59)

Thank you so much for having me. I really appreciate it. Dan.

Dan Lefkovitz (51:08)

Thank you for joining us on the Longview. If you could please take a moment to subscribe to and rate the podcast on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, you can follow me on social media, dan Lefkovitz on LinkedIn. George Cassidy is our engineer for the podcast and Kerry Greshik produces the show Notes each week. Finally, we'd love to get your feedback. If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us@thelongvieworningstar.com until until next time. Thanks for joining us.

Podcast Disclaimer Narrator (51:38)

This recording is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Opinions expressed are as of the date of recording and are subject to change without notice. The views and opinions of guests on this program are not necessarily those of Morningstar, Inc. And its affiliates, which together we refer to as Morningstar. Morningstar is not affiliated with guests or the business affiliates unless otherwise stated. Morningstar does not guarantee the accuracy or the completeness of the data presented herein. This recording is for informational purposes only and the information data analysis or opinion it includes or their use should not be considered investment or tax advice and therefore is not an offer to buy or sell a security. Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from or related to the information, data analyses or opinions, or their use. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal. Individuals should seriously consider if an investment is suitable for them by referencing their own financial position, investment objectives, and risk profile. Before making any investment decision, please consult a tax and or financial professional for advice specific to your individual circumstances.

Sam (possibly a technical or production staff member) (53:16)

Sam.