Liftoff with Keith Newman

Episode: Opening the Private Markets: Carine Schneider on Democratization, Regulation & Future of Investing

Air Date: September 10, 2025
Guest: Carine Schneider, Founding Partner, Compass Strategic Advisors
Host: Keith Newman

Episode Overview

In this episode, Keith Newman sits down with Carine Schneider, a pioneer in private market democratization, to discuss how access to private investing is evolving in the U.S. and globally. They dive into regulatory shifts, such as the new executive order allowing 401(k)s to invest in private market funds, the rise of AI in deal analysis, and the growing presence of both large institutions and startups in the private investment space. Carine shares stories from her 40-year career in stock plans and business consulting, offering insights on how relationships, changing legislation, and tech are shaping wealth creation for the next generation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Update the Book on Private Market Democratization?

[02:21–04:56]

• Carine describes writing the first version of her book in 2001, just after COVID, in a period of regulatory uncertainty.
• Four years later, rapid changes in government, the SEC, and global regulation made much of her original book outdated.
• Example: The UK’s PICES initiative incentivizes proper private market investing by offering tax advantages, inspired by U.S.-style markets.
  • "If you do it right, you can really save on tax in the UK ... I think the first time the government has really stepped in." [03:45, Carine]
• U.S. regulatory changes: Trump’s recent executive order now allows 401(k)s to invest in private market opportunities.

2. Democratizing Private Market Access

[04:56–07:40]

• Carine recounts her early advocacy for private market access, facing skepticism even among professionals.
• Common misconception: Private markets are too risky and exclusive for average investors.
• Parallel to ETFs and crypto:
  • "We can invest in a lot of things, but mom and pops ... generally can't participate in the private market. ... 98% of people do not qualify." [06:36, Carine]
• The 401(k) shift opens new opportunity, but Carine notes it will take time for structures and funds to form for broad participation.

3. Barriers to Investing via 401(k): How Will It Work?

[07:40–09:26]

• Direct investing in startups like OpenAI remains restricted (requires accredited investor status and self-directed IRAs).
• Practically: 401(k) providers will launch funds containing shares in private unicorns, creating “private market funds” within retirement accounts.
  • No hard allocation limit foreseen—investors could dedicate up to 98% of their 401(k) to these funds, depending on fund availability.

4. Risks, Oversight, and Disclosure in Private Markets

[09:26–10:45]

• Major concern for fund managers: Private companies lack the stringent disclosure requirements of public markets.
• Fiduciary risk: Fund managers may be criticized for poor picks with less data available.
  • "The amount of disclosure in the private market is nowhere close to what you get in the public market." [09:36, Carine]
• Emergence of AI-powered analysis tools (e.g., Charlie Capital) to help evaluate private company data.

5. The History and Impact of Stock Plans

[11:05–13:44]

• Carine discusses her new project exploring 40 years of stock plan evolution and how it transformed Silicon Valley and global innovation.
  • "Without stock plans, there's no Bezos, there's no Zuckerberg ... this life changing wealth ... is amazing what that has done to innovation and the world." [11:44, Carine]
• Stock plans enabled founders, executives, and employees alike to benefit from transformative wealth creation.

6. Changing Ecosystem: Big Players & Startups in Private Markets

[13:44–14:30]

• Large financial institutions (Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, DTCC) are now moving into the private market, not just startups.
• Infrastructure, regulation, and technology are maturing, moving the industry from “spreadsheets and email” to institutional-grade systems.
  • “There might be some regulation needed, there might be some structure needed. Up until now, we've all kind of been handling this on spreadsheets and email ... maybe we need to get to the next level.” [14:08, Carine]

7. AI’s Role in Investment Analysis

[14:30–15:27]

• AI tools now provide sophisticated, data-driven recommendations distinguishing between great and mediocre investment opportunities.
  • Example: AI distinguished two similar-looking companies by subtle, significant differences—a level of diligence a human might miss.
  • “As an investor you’re like, now I get it, now I’m much better educated—not good for the company that ... came back negative because you could die as a company much quicker than you used to be able to.” [15:17, Carine]

8. Compass Strategic Advisors: Fractional Strategy and Global Growth

[16:03–18:38]

• Carine and her partner founded Compass to offer “fractional” high-level strategy expertise to founders and firms—helping companies enter new geographies, build products, or assemble advisory boards.
• Key service: Navigating regulatory and cultural complexities, leveraging deep connections (e.g., arranging meetings with SEC commissioners).
• “I don't really want to work for your company full time, but you could get a piece of me.” [16:10, Carine]

9. Value of Relationships in Business Growth

[19:41–22:38]

• Anecdote: Hosting networking dinners for foreign clients led to multi-million dollar U.S. deals.
  • “That $10,000 dinner ... has paid off in a multi-million dollar deal. ... You’ve got to plant the seeds and you can’t expect immediate ROI on everything that you do.” [20:52 & 21:18, Carine]
• The cumulative value of strong relationships, cultural fluency, and in-person human connection is irreplaceable, even as AI advances.

10. U.S. Market Subtleties and Global Business

[22:38–23:38]

• Cultural differences in business expectations can make or break deals; Carine highlights advising international clients on U.S. “vibe”.
  • “If you walk into Silicon Valley and you don't understand the vibe, you'll blow yourself up so quick and you'll never get another chance because memories are long here.” [23:27, Carine]

11. Market Outlook: IPOs, M&A, and Private Markets

[24:12–29:06]

• Keith’s hypothesis: More M&A and company shutdowns, but steady IPO growth. Carine agrees but notes trend accelerations.
• “Open window” for private markets from Sept 2025 through mid-2026, then probable slow-down ahead of U.S. midterms.
• Notable stat: 10% of all private market trading currently involves OpenAI; 19 AI-related private companies dominate active trading.
  • Public company investors may access private markets indirectly via large corporations’ stakes in unicorns (e.g., Microsoft and OpenAI).
• Regulatory warning: “One scandal away from new regulations”—recent bankruptcies and fallout (e.g., Ripple stock) watched closely.
  • "We're one scandal away from new regulations. ... So far, not much fallout. So maybe people just want to ignore this stuff." [28:55, Carine]

12. Resources for Tracking Private Market Trends

[27:36–29:06]

• NASDAQ Private Markets, Forge, and others provide valuable indexes and reports to watch private share trading trends.
• Forge, as a public company, offers unique visibility (“listen to Kelly Rodriguez’s earnings calls”).

Most Notable Quotes & Moments

• On democratizing access:
  “Mom and Pops, Main Street … generally can't participate in the private market. … 98% of people do not qualify to invest in that particular area.” [06:36, Carine]
• On stock plans’ impact:
  “Without stock plans, there's no Bezos, no Zuckerberg … this life changing wealth that a stock plan can bring … really is amazing what that has done to innovation and the world." [11:44, Carine]
• On AI-driven investment analysis:
  “Now you can go to the AI and say, I want to invest in a space company … the AI will have done the analysis … and the subtleties between the two companies I probably would not have ever picked up on.” [14:50 & 15:05, Carine]
• On the importance of relationships:
  “You couldn’t have sent your agent, your AI agent to that dinner.” [21:48, Keith]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:21] Book update motivation & global regulatory examples
• [04:56] Opening private markets & 401(k) changes
• [07:40] Mechanics of new 401(k) private investment rules
• [09:26] Concerns about oversight and disclosure
• [11:05] Reflections on stock plans and wealth creation
• [13:44] Market evolution: from startups to BlackRock and DTCC
• [14:30] How AI is disrupting private market analysis
• [16:03] Compass Strategic’s fractional strategy model
• [19:41] Real-life ROI from networking and relationship-building
• [22:38] Navigating global v. Silicon Valley business culture
• [24:12] IPO/M&A predictions and active AI trading in private markets
• [27:36] Where to find private market trend data
• [28:55] Regulatory risks and future book ideas

Conclusion

This episode delivers a thorough, nuanced look at the evolving landscape of private market investing, featuring Carine Schneider’s practical wisdom. As regulatory barriers lower and technology advances, the opportunities—and risks—for a wider range of investors are expanding rapidly. Human relationships, cultural understanding, and thoughtful advisory remain irreplaceable assets, even in a future shaped increasingly by AI and automation.