
Veeeeery busy day for us at the Majority Report today, with a new front of Israel's military rampage opening up with Iran, Donald Trump holding what turned out to be a rinky dinky military parade, political assassinations in Minnesota, No Kings...
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Sam Seder
You are listening to a free version of the Majority Report. Support this show@jointhemajorityreport.com and get an extra hour of content daily. It is Monday, June 16, 2025. My name is Sam Seder. This is the five time award winning Majority Report. We are broadcasting live steps from the industrially ravaged Gowanus Canal in the heartland of America, downtown Brooklyn, usa. On the program today, Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow in the American Statecraft program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on the war Israel started against Iran. Also on the program today, Trump's parade a flop. Meanwhile, no Kings protest draws millions across the country. Perhaps one of the largest single day protests in the country in decades. Meanwhile, alleged political assassin killer of two Minnesota Democrats and their spouses apprehended and arrested. Israel continuing to slaughter aid seekers in Gaza. Senate Republican committees set to take the next step in Trump's reverse Robin Hood tax bill. New polls Trump deportations unpopular genetic House Democratic ballot up by eight. Two top union leaders quit the dnc. Trump's FAA pick lied about having a commercial pilot license to fly airplanes. Yeah. G7 to meet in Alberta, Canada this week. And Trump to expand deportation in Democratic run cities while pulling back on farm workers, restaurant workers and meatpacking workers. Fancy that. All this. More on today's Majority Report. Welcome ladies and gentlemen. Thanks so much for joining us. Emma is not only out today, but she's married. We all went to the wedding, had a wonderful time. We'll wait and see if she wants to show pictures. That's not for us to do.
Matt Lech
It's not the opening segment for the show today.
Sam Seder
No, we'll wait and see. But she'll be back in a couple days before she goes off on her honeymoon. And for those who have been watching the show, listening to the show for some time, I want you to imagine Emma on the eve of her wedding when war starts between Iran and Israel. A would be, well, not a would be a right wing political assassin kills two Democrats in Minnesota has a long list of Democrats that they're looking to target. AOC shows up at Zoran's rally Friday night. The A court, I guess this was more on Thursday evening first said that Trump had no power to federalize the National Guard in the way he did. And then another court reversed it. We'll be talking to the attorney general of California tomorrow on the program. Briefly get an update on what's happening with that court case. And then of course, all the protests and the military marches that were going on just before her wedding literally had to take her phone and put it into a, Like a safe at the bottom of the ocean.
Matt Lech
Those begs comedians give you at the start of their show.
Sam Seder
Exactly. CPG says, I appreciate that. Even on her special week, Emma is able to dip in on the Matt Annie Lowry Twitter beef. True loyalty. Let's get into this parade stuff first. Donald Trump had this parade. There were a lot of people who were, you know, sort of, I don't know, worried is the way is the word. But we're sort of like a little bit concerned that it might, it might.
Matt Lech
Be disturbing, mainly because he was promising to roll over people, basically, if they got in his way.
Sam Seder
Yes. And there was a sense of, like, what's it going to look like if, like, you know, those. We've all seen those images from North Korea. It's intimidating, it's stark, it's fascistic. The level of, of, of training and dedication that is so clear amongst those military personnel. It would be foreboding. And just the idea of spending $45 million on this parade for Donald Trump, and it really was. Donald Trump, it turns out, was disturbing. And then it just turns out to be, like, sort of sad and pathetic. Here is a couple of clips of. This is. And I should make it clear, this is from Scripps Media. We did not add any audio or take out any.
Matt Lech
We didn't get Vic Berger to get in and do some Foley work.
Sam Seder
Exactly. You're not seeing, like, be prepared for throngs of people and tanks rolling down the street in Washington, D.C. yeah, there it is. I mean, you know, tanks are squeaky. You just would imagine at a big parade with throngs of people that you wouldn't be able to hear it. But not the case. This is a headline. Number one, just put this up. Trump military parade met with empty seats. Do we have that up? Trump military parade met with empty seats amid a nationwide protests. I'm sorry, did I say 45 million, $46 million parade. And literally it was almost for like, eight people.
Matt Lech
You want to just tack another million on there because he's number 47.
Sam Seder
Play number four. Now, these guys are. This looks like casual, like, it's like a casual stuff here.
Matt Lech
Not the tightest march. I don't know. I don't want to be too critical. I didn't join the military, but I've seen people march a bit tighter than.
Emma Vigland
That thanks to our sponsor, Coinbase.
Sam Seder
We did not put that in there either. We should tell you, I. Apparently, the military is now sponsored by Coinbase.
Matt Lech
I think they're looking at making some Palantir.
Sam Seder
We have that take. Play that clip that I sent here in the im. It should start right at the right time. I mean, oh, look at this image here. Pop this image up. You can see this is in the middle of the parade. And it honestly looks like you're at a, like a concert as they're, you know, just practicing. You know, the roadies are up there checking the instruments, or it's like, I don't know. Like, I don't know. At 10am on the morning of a.
Matt Lech
Bonnaroo, and it's kind of misty, so everyone's still in their tents.
Sam Seder
Play that clip that I sent in there yet. This one, you'll see this. This gives you a good vision of, like, how, first off, this was almost exclusively for Trump. You have, like, him sitting on the dais there. Like it. But watch these clips. And then you can see the bobbing of the heads. That's what tells me that the march is not going the way that maybe Trump wanted it to before our nation.
Jacob Soboroff
And if it wasn't for this powerful, capable force we're seeing walking by the dead, we may have not had a United States of America. So I'm so grateful. I'm so grateful to have served. I'm so grateful for our soldiers that are marching today.
Sam Seder
I love a band.
Jacob Soboroff
I'm grateful for all our veterans, whether Navy, you name it, all the services. We have six services.
Sam Seder
Trump so badly wanted to do that salute. Now, look at, look at, look at.
Jacob Soboroff
A lot of people don't know this.
Sam Seder
Look at all the, like, the heads are bouncing up and down. Like it's, like, it doesn't look like.
Matt Lech
Right uniform.
Sam Seder
Right. Isn't that, like. Isn't it supposed to all happen at the same time? I don't know. I mean, I'm not, you know, can.
Matt Lech
You imagine the actual morale of some of those troops?
Sam Seder
My God. Yeah.
Unknown
You said people like. It might have been disturbing if it was super militaristic and sort of scary, but it might be disturbing if you're one of those people.
Sam Seder
Oh, I would imagine.
Matt Lech
At easement.
Sam Seder
At ease. I got to say it. I got to say it. And meanwhile, all of the people who I think Donald Trump expected would show up at his military parade, although he was, I guess, subsequently complaining that the. The fake weather news said it was 100% definitely going to rain, and it didn't, and he was mad about that. He thinks it's a plot to keep people away. It was scheduled to rain everywhere. I was in Riverhead New York. I don't know what, I don't know how many, 10, 20,000 people live there. I'm not sure, maybe 30 and maybe it's more, but I can't imagine it's much more than that. And there was, it was rainy. It was. There's about 35,000 people there in Riverhead, New York and there was 1500 people standing in the rain for the no kings protest. Meanwhile, around the country, according to the polling outfit strength in numbers, they crowdsourced data from the rallies as of midnight last night had analyzed about 40% of them. They counted 2.6 million people. So they're. The estimates that we're seeing now are anywhere from like 5, 6 million people nationally coming out in one day. That's a lot of people. Look at some of these pictures from around the country.
Matt Lech
Here's one from a St. Louis here, St. Louis from above.
Sam Seder
That's crazy.
Matt Lech
Full park there. Go back to Sam. There's also San Diego here. Russell, neck of the woods.
Sam Seder
Get that Atlantic piece up because that's gonna. There are photos across the country. There were over 2,000 protests that took place. And this is where.
Matt Lech
Demonstrators marching down the street in San Francisco.
Sam Seder
Here at San Francisco. This is, that looks like maybe Iowa, Des Moines, Iowa. I mean across there spelling out no king. That's impressive.
Matt Lech
It's in the San Francisco again. This looks like Chicago.
Sam Seder
I mean all across the country.
Matt Lech
Oh wow. This is a pretty packed one here in Chicago. Again, Daily Plaza.
Sam Seder
I mean that looks like Woodstock.
Matt Lech
Holy smokes. Huge folks going down in Cincinnati here.
Sam Seder
I mean these are, you know, these are pretty dramatic images.
Matt Lech
This is Idaho state capitol. Wow. A little bit more well attended than, than the military stuff it looks like.
Sam Seder
Meanwhile, of course there was some violence. We had at least one instance of somebody ramming their car into protesters, killing one the no kings. It's unclear to me whether that right wing terrorist in Minnesota was interested in attacking any no king protest. But that's what happened around the country, I think at the end. A humiliating day for Donald Trump. Here is an image of, or I should say a video. Jacob Sovereign off from NBC. He's covering the protests in L. A And you can see in the screen, it's split screen at first with the military parade and he starts off by saying completely peaceful. So he is, he's got the military behind him. He standed between the military and the protests and if there was any sense that the protesters were doing something that was a little bit aggressive, he'd be on the side. He would not be in between the two and watch what happens. This is. It's clear that to the extent that there was any violence between protesters and cops, it was purposefully initiated by the police here at Sobroff.
Emma Vigland
I want to reiterate, this looks very intimidating. This has remained 100% peaceful as far as I have seen. People are out here with their signs here. May I show your sign, ma' am? Can I. You said what your sign says.
Sam Seder
We are not criminals.
Matt Lech
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Emma Vigland
Let's go.
Sam Seder
Equal protest. We're not doing nothing wrong. We have the freedom of speech.
Emma Vigland
Go, go, go, go. Why don't you be careful, okay? You yourself so you can see. Whoa, whoa. They're messing with the horses, guys. Let's go, let's go, let's go. Let's back up here. Obviously, people are unhappy, Ari. People don't want to see horses trampling. Let's go, guys. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go, let's go, let's go. Hey, Ari, we're okay. We're going to keep going. Stay with us if you can. JP why move a little faster back. They're pushing people with horses, which obviously gets people freaked.
Sam Seder
Jacob, you're.
Emma Vigland
You're need to do.
Sam Seder
You're on camera, but. But take your time and space.
Emma Vigland
Let's go, let's go.
Sam Seder
Oh, let's go.
Emma Vigland
We're good, Ari. We're good, Ari.
Sam Seder
We're good.
Emma Vigland
We're good. We're good. Keep going.
Sam Seder
I want to reiterate, and you could hear. So at one point was. Was about to say to Ari Melber, like, I. I want to reiterate. It was completely peaceful until the cops started. Decided to trample people with horses and then start firing projectiles at them.
Matt Lech
Pushing people with a horse. Yeah. Not the best de Escalation technique.
Sam Seder
And also probably not the smartest PR move to do that as some as you have a reporter literally looking at the protesters saying 100% peace.
Matt Lech
Here's a woman's sign, and she almost gets trampled.
Sam Seder
That's what's going around, you know, and that is. I don't know if that's a function of, like, we've got to be far more aggressive because of we've got the military here. I don't know. But that's.
Matt Lech
Message from the top is clear.
Emma Vigland
Yep.
Sam Seder
And that's Los Angeles Sheriff's Department, as far as we can tell, but unclear for sure. All right, in a moment, we're going to be talking to Stephen Wertheim, senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the Israeli attack on Iran, which has kicked off what appears to be a growing war between the two of them. What the strategy is that Israel seems to be holding and how Donald Trump seems to have been just rolled throughout the entire process. We'll talk to him in a moment. First, a couple words from our sponsors. Delete Me is a product that I've been using for probably at least 10 years now, way before they became a sponsor. So it makes this easy for me. Delete Me makes it easy for you and for me, frankly and quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches and doxing are common enough to make everybody vulnerable. Delete Me knows your privacy is worth protecting you. You sign up, provide Delete Me with exactly what information you want deleted specific emails, addresses, relationships and their experts. Take it from there. Delete Me sends you phone numbers, whatever. Delete Me sends you regular personalized privacy reports showing what info they found, where they found it, what they had removed. They do this on a monthly basis because a lot of these data broker sites, they get repopulated and understand like, you know, it's, it's a question of if you want to keep your family, your business, you somewhat private from data broker sites, Delete Me regularly goes and scrubs them for you. If you're worried about ID theft or phishing scams, a lot of times hackers will buy information on the dark web, combine it with stuff that they find and brokerage data broker sites, they use that for phishing stuff. Hi Sam, it's Verizon. Send it to your email. How do they know my name? I don't. I don't have Verizon. That's, that's what data broker stuff ends up doing. Want to thank Delete Me for sponsoring today's episode with Delete Me. I protect both my personal privacy, privacy, my business, my family, all of it. And again, because these sites repopulate, Delete Me is constantly doing it. And then they send you reports as to where it is. Take control of your data. Keep your private life private by signing up for Delete Me now at a special discount for you today. Get 20% off your delete Me plan by texting the word majority to the number 64,000. Only way to get 20% off is to text majority to the number 64,000. That's majority to 64,000. Message and data rates may apply. We'll put a link in or I should say the, those instructions in the podcast and YouTube descriptions. Also sponsoring the program today, Magic Spoon, my favorite breakfast. And now they got these like bars that are awesome. It's all part of my less sugar program that I have instituted for myself which, you know, as long as we don't have cookies in the office, I'm okay. Every serving of Magic Spoon high protein cereal has 13 grams of protein, 0 grams of sugar and 4 net, 4 grams of net carbs. So it's good for you if you're, you know, doing like a low carb lifestyle. It's, it's good for you if you're trying to get less sugar. It's good for you if you're looking for more protein. And they come in flavors that will be reminiscent of your childhood. Fruity, cocoa, frosted. I think I'm probably not allowed to say what they're related to, but I think everybody can remember. Also Magic Spoon has these high protein treats. They're crispy, crunchy, airy, an easy way to get 12 grams of protein on the go. And again, no sugar, become a mouth watering flavors like marshmallow, chocolate, peanut butter, dark chocolate. Magic Spoon, great for the kids insofar as like they love it and you're not giving them a bunch of sugar. And the bars, same deal. And then I end up eating most of it anyways. Get $5 off your next order at magicspoon.com majorityreport or look for Magic Spoon on Amazon or in your nearest grocery store. It's catching on. That's magicspoon.com majority report. $5 off. Check it out. We will put a link in the podcast and YouTube descriptions. We're going to take a quick break and when we come back we'll be talking to Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Matt Lech
Sam.
Sam Seder
We are back. Sam Cedar on the Majority Report. Emma Vigland out today in her post marital bliss. Joining us now or returning to the program, Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Stephen, thanks so much for joining us.
Stephen Wertheim
Glad to be here.
Sam Seder
We are in I guess day four of what is now a full on war, it seems to me, between Israel and Iran. Let's go back, give us the sort of the background at least in terms of like the desire to attack Iran has been, I mean at least in my awareness, this was something that was on the agenda of neocons in the run up to the Iraq war. The idea is we're going to take Iraq, we're going to make that into a, you know, a democracy. We're going to be met with candy and flowers. Then Syria and Iran was on that list. Give us a sense of just like. Particularly from the perspective of the Israelis, but also in the context of the neoconservative movement.
Stephen Wertheim
Well, yeah, going back to the Iranian Revolution of 1979, you know, the United States, particularly neoconservatives, but, you know, many American policy elites have wanted to, you know, engage in this grudge match between the two countries. The Iranians have wanted to engage, the United States have wanted to engage. That's a bipartisan thing. But you're right that neoconservatives, you know, before 911 were thinking about Iran, Iraq. Of course, Iran and Iraq had a long war throughout the 1980s which weakened both sides.
Sam Seder
I mean, we certainly supplied Iraq with, I mean, some of the chemical warfare that we thought that they ostensibly had when or claimed that we had. They had when we invaded Iraq.
Stephen Wertheim
Yeah, I mean, so the US Government, you know, considered Iraq to be the lesser of the two evils when the two sides were going head to head. But I think, you know, most importantly for understanding the present predicament, it's been the goal of, of Israel and particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, to try to shut down any amount of activity that could in the future be used by Iran to get a nuclear weapon and even more than that, to obstruct US Efforts which have now occurred on a bipartisan basis to reach a deal with Iran that would provide for international inspections to ensure that Iran could not make a nuclear weapon. So in this case, it isn't, you know, US Neocons that are pushing events, but rather the government of Israel which decided to, you know, it says it wanted to preempt an Iranian nuclear weapon, but Iran was some distance from being able to make a nuclear weapon. And in fact, both US And Israeli intelligence have recently said that Iran had not made a decision to pursue a nuclear weapon, though it had taken steps in that direction by highly enriching uranium. So Netanyahu wanted to preempt another round of U. S. Iran talks that might bring a new nuclear deal into fruition.
Sam Seder
But doesn't. I mean, there's something that is inherently contradictory there, it seems to me. And, and I wonder if Israel's fear of a nuclear Iran is also sort of a. A little bit of something we can all agree on, quality like a Paul Wolfowitz in the sense that we had a deal with Iran that was the jcpoa, that being, you know, the first Iran nuke deal that by all accounts Iran was adhering to. Right. They have expressed a, I mean, what appears to be, I mean, you know, I can. Different people can take it at face value or not, a reluctance to develop a nuclear weapon. And there were negotiations that by all accounts seemed to be not necessarily easy, but certainly being sincere that both sides were engaging in. And this seems designed completely to short circuit that which, you know, if I'm Iran right now, I'm thinking the biggest mistake we ever made was not developing a weapon when Trump shut this down, because none of this attack would happen if we had a nuke weapon. How, how is this really an attempt to forestall an Iranian nuclear weapon if this is launched in the midst of negotiations? That very well may have done that.
Stephen Wertheim
Well, Israel didn't want negotiations to happen. You know, you could say that maybe the Israelis didn't believe that what Iran agreed to would really prevent it ultimately from getting a nuclear weapon. But I agree with you, something else is going on here. Right? And I think that something else is in part the perceived opportunity that Israel had to go after Iran and weaken the regime, maybe even see if they could topple the regime. We don't quite know what Israel's war aims are right now and what they will evolve into. So, you know, Israel going back to the last year exchanged direct fire with Iran twice, severely weakened its air defense systems, the most advanced of which was a Russian supplied S300 which was able to knock out last October. That makes it easier for the Israelis to target Iran. Israel is also trying to go after Iran's retaliatory capabilities, its missile launchers, so that Iran will not be able to fire missiles and drones into Israel, although so far Iran has been able to do that and did some damage, although much less than Israel has done to Iran. In addition, Israel has disabled Iran aligned forces in the region that were a key part of Iran's own deterrent strategy against Israel. It successfully and over U.S. objections during the Biden administration, launched strikes at Hezbollah, which are quite similar to what it's doing right now to Iran, trying to paralyze the leadership. And that got Hezbollah to stop being able to fire rockets into northern Israel. And then it got some luck when Assad, who is aligned with Iran, when his regime melted away towards the end of the year. And so the Israelis saw that they might never get a better time to strike Iran than what they could do in the first half of this year. So it was coming up to a kind of now or never choice for them, I think, in their mind. And, yeah, they didn't want to go down the road of another jcpoa, this time with Donald Trump, who might actually be able to make it stick more than Obama, because ironically, Trump was the one who stupidly walked out of the JCPOA during his first term in the hopes of getting some kind of better deal that has never materialized. So I think, look, Israel has been traumatized after the October 7, 2023 attacks, much like the United States after 9 11. It's become less acceptant of risk from external enemies, much as the United States was more willing to do things that it previously wouldn't have done. And so now it's taken a big gamble, gone after Iran, and it's hoping that the United States will ultimately either continue to support Israel or even join in, which I think is a major risk, because ultimately to. To be able to knock back Iran's nuclear program, one has to hit in particular a site in Fordo and Iran buried deep in the mountains. And it's widely believed that only the United States has the capabilities to do that. I should also say, though, that even a US Even a direct US Strike, it may set back the Iranian program for maybe several years. But by the same token, as you mentioned, it may make Iran conclude that its mistake was to not actually proceed to make a nuclear weapon. And Iran can, as long as it has some scientists left, can, can do that and can be deceptive. It can pull out of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and it can speed toward a nuclear weapon.
Sam Seder
How much of this timing was also motivated by what's going on for Netanyahu domestically?
Stephen Wertheim
It's a good question. I mean, I don't know. He's already got a war on his hands in Gaza and also fighting in the West Bank. So, you know, I think the connection to Netanyahu's own political fate is a little clearer there. But it's true that Netanyahu has gone from looking dead in the water to escaping, you know, prosecution himself and surviving politically as the Israeli prime minister yet again because of the wars that he's prosecuted since October 7th. And for him to stop them completely, I think would then expose him to accountability within Israel. So how much you can pin to this singular act against Iran, I'm not, I'm not sure. But does he have a disturbing incentive to continue with military action? Yes.
Sam Seder
Getting back to the idea that Israel found this to be its most opportune time because Iranian proxies or Iranian allied forces that would normally respond on Iran's behalf or at least to some extent have been white. What capacity does Yemen have? I know that they fired some rockets. What capacity does Yemen have? And how concerned is Israel? I know that Israel, I think, also attacked Yemen, if I'm not mistaken. So how much. And is there any other sort of mechanism that Iran can deploy to attack Israel or. I imagine they're also, I mean, this is an open threat from Iran that if you assist in any way, and I want to get to that American role in a moment, but what are the other mechanisms that Iran has without having a Hezbollah or Syria or maybe even any type of, I mean, Western Iraq is usually not available to Iran, in my understanding that tends to be more Sunni. What, what do they have left?
Stephen Wertheim
Yeah, I mean, it's hard to know right now in the very intense fog of war, you know, exactly where Iranian military capabilities stand. They have shown the ability, including last night, to send ballistic missiles into Israel to strike an oil refinery in Haifa to kill some number of Israeli civilians. Not sure that their targeting looks like it's in great shape. So that's very much influx. But they have, you know, extensive ballistic missile capability and they could continue to, to use that for, for as long as it's possible for them. But yeah, their proxies are, are down but not out. The Houthis can also join in, as they've done in exchanging fire with Israel before. And the Iranian aligned militias in Iraq, I think, are of particular concern. They could target US Service members in Iraq and Syria as well. So that's something to watch for. In addition, Iran could escalate by going after Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and it could try to block the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt oil. So I think if you think about what is Iran's strategy here, they don't have great moves in the short term, it seems to me. But if they're going to dig in and take a beating from Israel for a while, figuring that their population will unite rather than divide as a result, then I think they can make life difficult for the United States and Donald Trump as perhaps oil prices spike, there's a threat that US Service members will be targeted and a wider war that could draw in the United States directly, which President Trump doesn't want to happen. So, you know, that's something I think to look for. It's a little, unfortunately, it's a little bit easier for me to imagine a long term scenario right now. For this conflict than how we get out of it within days.
Sam Seder
How much you mentioned UAE and Saudi Arabia that Iran may attack. But it felt like in the. The past year or so, there has been some form of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who have been, at least as far as I can tell, for the last couple of decades, almost like, you know, waging a proxy war over the course of that full 20 years, it seems like. But there was some type of a rapprochement. How much. How much of that rapprochement was real? What are the possibilities that Saudi Arabia is sort of like, sitting on the sideline, maybe cheering Israel on, you know, in private, like, what's that dynamic?
Stephen Wertheim
So there was a real rapprochement may be, like, bordering on too strong a word, but there was a real re engagement, diplomatically, a movement toward a cold peace rather than a hot one. So there was real movement. And I think that's a good thing right now insofar as it will disincline Iran to strike those countries. And one big difference between the negotiations that led to the JCPOA under Obama and the current negotiations under Trump was that the Gulf states were opposed to the former but actually supported the latter. So that's maybe a bit of good news in terms of regional dynamics. But the flip side of that is it's going to be that much harder, I think, for there to be some kind of normalization between the Gulf states and Israel. So if you're thinking about, I think from an American perspective, there's always this, like, fantasy that, well, we get to some better place in the Middle east so the US Isn't drawn in. You know, can we knit together some kind of stable equilibrium? And we can fantasize about something right now, but it looks very, very far away. And ironically, if you think about the trip that Trump took to the Gulf, which was meant to be his first foreign trip of this term, you know, he kind of painted this story of a Middle east that was on the rise because old hatreds were being put aside and the US Wasn't doing nation building, regime change, wars anymore. It was going to be more transactional and favor peace and stability. Okay, that's interesting, but this is just not a region that is primed to break out in peace and stability anytime soon. It's very hard to see that happening from this current round of military conflict between Israel and Iran. But we keep telling ourselves that that's the story. You remember, the Biden administration also had its version of that story, which it promulgated just before the October 7th attacks. And then what? We're back into managing crises and risking the US Direct involvement in more conflict.
Sam Seder
How. What is your sense? I mean, there are two sort of, like, competing stories as to Trump's role in this. One is that he was buttering up the Iranians, making them feel confident following these negotiations and, you know, pursuing peace, and that it was all a ruse to make the Iranians confident so that the chief negotiator was sleeping in his own home, that several of the top leadership of the Iranian government were sleeping in their own homes so that Israel could take them out. The other story is that Trump had basically said, don't do it, but didn't say it forcefully enough. Netanyahu launched the attack. Everybody knows what's going to happen after that, and gave Trump a cover story that made him seem like a super agent, that he was actually just doing this to lull them into a false sense of security and not actually seeking peace. Which is the one that you think, or is there a different story that makes more sense? Because it seems to me if it is the case that he was doing this, I don't know how you negotiate anything ever again.
Stephen Wertheim
That's a problem. Yeah. So I don't know exactly what happened. I think it's a little bit of both. But I think mostly Trump was not leading the Iranians down a path over several months toward an Israeli strike on Iran. So in that sense, there may have been an element of ruse toward the very end in the day or two prior to the Israeli strike last week. But I suspect that that was it. And what it looks like is that, you know, Trump was sincere about trying to have nuclear negotiations. He did not want Israel to strike Iran, figuring that that would damage negotiations, which is probably correct, but that Netanyahu discussed this with Trump and got something that was not a red light, maybe he got a green light at some point. I'd say more likely, based on what's been reported, he got a yellow light from Trump. But Trump didn't say no or spell out consequences for Netanyahu if he went ahead. Perhaps Netanyahu convinced him that the strike would actually be good for talks. Trump believes in coercive diplomacy. He believes when he initiated these talks, he said there was a 60 day window. Now, he was seemingly willing to put that aside for the sake of talks which were supposed to occur yesterday. So, you know Trump, I wouldn't take that too seriously. But Trump believes in imposing pressure and negotiating at the point of a gun and so the Israeli strike might have occurred to him as somewhat in keeping with that strategy. And since the strikes began, he has repeatedly said that he still wants to get a deal, but it's going to be really difficult to get a deal because. Yes. Will the Iranians trust the United States? Will the Iranians believe that the United States can keep Israel from attacking Iran again? And can the Iranians agree to a deal that Israel would think is a win for itself? Seemingly that deal would have to be quite draconian for Iran, which would then entail significant political risk for the Iranian leadership because it would just look like a defeat and a humiliation. So hard to see how we put negotiations back together.
Sam Seder
And Trump though reportedly has said do not go after Khamenei and which I guess ostensibly would be his way of being magnanimous, has the Israeli strikes. And maybe this is outside your portfolio, but in some places I have read that the strikes have been. Do not seem to have a strategy that one would take if one was looking for regime change in that it they have been. They have hit in sort of more popular places in Iran that they haven't been necessarily focused on, you know, taking out the weak antelope as it were like to create fissures within. Because there are already existing fissures within Iranian society. There is a, there has always been a significant both reform, I guess movement in Iran and perhaps even a. The counter revolutionary one to. And Iran has a, a history of both like well, autocratic dictators. But prior to that with Mosaddeq and the United States, CIA was very involved in getting rid of Mosaddeq. But there is a history of. Of some form of democracy there. It does not appear, at least from what I've read, that Israel has been attempting to attack in a way that it would exacerbate those fissures, but instead has attacked in such a way that has, that is appealed to national. That would create a sense of nationalism within Iran, which understandable. But what's your take on that?
Stephen Wertheim
I think it's hard to know what a viable strategy to attempt regime change through airstrikes would actually look like. That is not something that has succeeded before. There's some recent scholarship on this. So airstrikes just do not tend to be enough to produce regime change. Now you could argue that.
Sam Seder
They'Re so blunt. I mean it's like literally there's a force from coming from the sky and everybody is subjected to that. And it creates a sort of. It seems to me that it would create a Tightening of national bonds.
Stephen Wertheim
From what I've seen, that's what's happened. And I don't, I want to be cautious about trying to sort through the empirical information, but that is certainly what I would predict based on what I know about how conflicts like this, how they occur. And you know, it's also the case that Iran did not attack Israel first. So from an Iranian perspective, this looks like an aggressive Israeli attack on their country. You know, if you want to ascend, if you're looking to jockey for position in a post regime situation, you probably also want to look like a national patriot, right? And that means not welcoming strikes, aggressive strikes by Israel on your country. But you know, there's no clean way to try to take out a regime. So Israel has targeted leading regime figures who are often in populated areas and that creates so called collateral damage. And we'll also have to see whether we see escalating strikes in terms of the civilian damage. There were reports just before we spoke about a wider targeting of, of the capital city, Tehran.
Sam Seder
Where is Russia or China in this? I mean, are they, is there an attempt at the un Are they leading any type of attempt there? Are they weighing their options as to how they would weigh in in this situation? How do they react to this?
Stephen Wertheim
They, I think it's something of an opportunity for them in the court of international public opinion. You know, Trump said that he spoke to Vladimir Putin and Putin offered to mediate. So we'll see about that. But you know, the Security Council, whatever moves they make in the Security Council, it's going to be to just benefit from negative perceptions of a US Enabled Israeli strike. And obviously the US Would veto anything in the Security Council that they would put forward. Once again, US Involvement in a Middle Eastern conflict will damage the US Position more broadly in the world and also in the areas where US Policymakers themselves say are their strategic priority, namely East Asia. The United States is now going to beef up its military presence in the region, taking away from the pivot toward Asia that Pentagon planners in this administration had wanted to bring about. And we are, to put it mildly, not out of the woods in terms of a potential direct US Involvement in this war. And I want to emphasize that because I think one thing that the Israelis may be thinking about is they have a lot of success. And the quickest way to end the war comes to be seen as the United States providing the final strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. And so Netanyahu says, trump, if you'll just order that, which I don't have the capability to do, then Israel's willing to stop and you have a way out of this situation. And, you know, I think there's at least a decent chance that Trump would agree to that and hope that Iran backs down and doesn't retaliate directly, directly against the United States.
Sam Seder
How, how likely does it seem like Iran in that situation would not retaliate? And how likely do you think it is that that wouldn't inspire perhaps a whole new generation of international terror attacks?
Stephen Wertheim
Yeah. So for the short term, hard to say. It depends how weakened Iran has been and whether it just needs a timeout. But as you say, it's really hard to imagine that Iran rethinks its entire foreign policy from there and decides that it should just focus on building its economy and become pro Western and, you know, decide that it had been struck for just reasons. This is not the way states behave. This is not consistent with what we've seen from Iran for a long time. So I then worry about getting off to the races with a new round of violence, perhaps through different methods than what we've seen of late.
Sam Seder
It does not look like what happens from here in is necessarily going to be positive, unless for whatever reason, Israel decides that they're done. Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, thanks so much for your time today. Really appreciate it.
Stephen Wertheim
Sorry, it's always a bummer when I. Come on.
Sam Seder
You know, if it makes you feel any better, there's a lot of guests that we have on these days that, that. That tends to be the. The situation. But maybe we'll try and book you when. When peace breaks out. We'll make sure that you're the first person we call in that event so you can deliver some good news.
Matt Lech
It's a.
Stephen Wertheim
It's a deal. I'll be standing by my email.
Sam Seder
Thanks, Stephen. All right, folks, we got to take a break and head to the fun half. We got a lot of IMs ranging from folks in Wisconsin. 500 people came out in Twin Lakes, Wisconsin, which is a town of 6,000. Bingo. Dango wants to talk about the New York Times effectively endorsing Cuomo without explicitly saying it. The. There was a Zoran rally at a. An indoor rally, about 3,000 people, which.
Matt Lech
The Terminal 5 one.
Sam Seder
Yeah, I think it was, like, over the weekend.
Matt Lech
Yeah.
Sam Seder
I don't remember anything remotely like that during any Democratic primary for mayor. I just. I'm completely unaware of it.
Matt Lech
There was a joke tweet going around saying if you tweet out Zoran Mamdani, you instantly get like a thousand retweets. And it's not actually that far off. Like, it's. I posted the Breakfast Club clip of him talking about free buses and it's been seen by millions of people.
Sam Seder
It is, you know, it's hard to, in, in the main, it is hard to sort of to extrapolate because there are times where, you know, visibility simply does not equate votes. I've told the story many times. I was up in New Hampshire in 08, covering the Republican primary, and.
Stephen Wertheim
I.
Sam Seder
Remember going through Manchester in the Greater Manchester area and going, my God, Ron Paul, he could be a sleeper here. Because everywhere you look, there were people out there with Ron Paul signs. And it just turned out that everybody who voted for Ron Paul also held a sign. Yeah, they were just incredibly enthusiastic people. Now, the only thing I would say is that in the context of a primary, you know, the New Hampshire primary in 08, every. There's a lot of media attention and everybody in Manchester, New Hampshire, and New Hampshire for that matter is aware of it. Like, that's. That was their thing. A New York Democratic mayoral primary in the middle of the summer just generally does not create that level of enthusiasm or awareness. I mean, people. There are numerous times in the past where like the primary comes and goes and nobody knows it's even happened. And so this is unique.
Unknown
I think, I think that, that if my understanding is that rally was for volunteers also, which is wild because, you know, it's not just 3,000 people who like schlepped out to spend their Saturday that way. Those are people who, in addition to that have been volunteering to go knock on people's doors and hand out stuff. So it says something about the intensity and size of his volunteer army.
Sam Seder
Yeah, like 3,000 is a measurable number of votes that you would have in a primary, never mind volunteers in a mayoral primary. So we will see. I mean, Michael Bloomberg has opened up the coffers for Cuomo, as I imagine other right wing billionaires have. So we'll see. But early voting is now. You can go now and vote. I think it's every day, just about every day. You can search. Darn it, I had it. I can't remember.
Matt Lech
While you're looking for that, maybe will.
Sam Seder
You get the voting site and we'll put it on, but you can easily Google, where is my New York City Democratic primary polling place?
Unknown
Find your poll site.
Sam Seder
Find your poll site. Is that what it is?
Unknown
Yeah, the address is Vote Vote nyc But vote nyc.
Sam Seder
It's super easy.
Matt Lech
There should be some kind of penalty if your cost money spent for each vote exceeds a certain amount, which Cuomo is destined to do.
Sam Seder
Oh, my God. Yes. Also, before we head to the fun half, just want to say thank you to listener Ann. She had, I think it was. I don't know if we ever made it, but she had, I think it was the runner up in the, in the Virgonia sweeps that we had, Senza Virgona. And I can't remember what Senza means, but she sent this mug.
Unknown
I think it means ashes or ash. Right?
Sam Seder
I'm not sure, but somebody who speaks Italian might know.
Matt Lech
Without. It means without. So without shame.
Sam Seder
Oh, yes. Okay. Yeah. So it flips it on its head. It's beautiful. It's a beautiful mug. I think you can probably find them at her site. Check out pick tricks design.com pick P I C tricks T R I X design.com and folks, if you want to support this program, go to jointhemajorityreport.com when you do, you help this show survive and thrive. And then you get the free half. Free of commercials. And then you get to IMS on the fun half. Also, just coffee.co op, fair trade coffee, hot chocolate. Use the coupon code, majority get 10 off. Try the Mr. Blend. I wonder if they're going to keep the WTF blend there. They probably will. Why wouldn't they?
Matt Lech
You think we could take the market share?
Sam Seder
I mean, we could promote it and we could talk turkey over this thing. But Matt, left reckoning.
Matt Lech
Yeah, Left reckoning for patrons. Patreon.com leftreckoning David and I talked about one of the great essays on Israel, Palestine by Tony Jutt, came out in 2003 in the New York view of books called Israel the Alternative. I went into the history about it a little bit, but rereading it, it's one of the. One of the first things I ever read on the subject. I remember talking about it with Michael. He made a big impact on him, too. And it's one that I think it's hard to make a more concise argument. And it's crazy how well it's aged since.
Sam Seder
We should find.
Matt Lech
Tragically, it's aged since 2020.
Sam Seder
Janine and I had Tony in at.
Matt Lech
Least on two occasions before.
Sam Seder
Yeah. And I think we had him in about Israel in particular. We gotta dig up that stuff.
Matt Lech
Aging, to me is realizing that Tony Judd's way better essayist than Christopher Hitchens. Sorry. There you have it, folks.
Sam Seder
I tend to Agree with you. He was a very, very smart guy.
Matt Lech
Insane. His book, Post War, which is a huge tome like a history about Europe after World War II, is essential. If you have a. A credit on Audible or something, I'd pick that up.
Sam Seder
We should try and dig up some of those interviews these days. Maybe make that like a bonus members thing or occasionally roll them out. Folks. See you in the fun half. Three months from now, six months from now, nine months from now. And I don't think it's going to be the same as it looks like from now. And I don't know if it's necessarily gonna be better six months from now than it is three months from now, but I think around 18 months out, we're gonna look back and go like, wow. What? What is that going on? It's nuts. Wait a second. Hold on. Hold on for a second. Emma. Welcome to the program. Matt. What is up, everyone? Fun hat. No, M. Keen, you did it. Fun hat.
Unknown
Let's go, Brandon.
Sam Seder
Let's go, Brandon. Fun. Pat Bradley, you want to say hello?
Matt Lech
Sorry to disappoint everyone.
Sam Seder
I'm just a random guy. It's all the boys today.
Stephen Wertheim
Fundamentally false.
Unknown
No. I'm sorry. Women.
Sam Seder
Stop talking for a second. Let me finish. Where is this Coming. Coming from, dude. But. Dude, you want to smoke this? 7A. Yes. Hi. This thing. Yes. Is this me? Is it me? It is you.
Unknown
If it's me.
Sam Seder
Hello? If it's me, I think it is you who is you. Us. Out every single freaking day. What's on your mind? We can discuss free markets and we can discuss capitalism. I'm going to go snow white. Libertarians. They're so stupid. Though common sense says. Of course.
Unknown
Gobbledygook.
Sam Seder
We nailed him.
Unknown
So what's 79? 21.
Sam Seder
Challenge.
Stephen Wertheim
Ma, I'm positively quivering.
Sam Seder
I believe 96. I want to say 857, 210, 35, 500. One, one half.
Matt Lech
Three, eight, nine, 11.
Sam Seder
For instance.
Unknown
$3,400. $1,900.
Sam Seder
Five, four. $3 trillion. Sold. It's a zero sum game, actually.
Unknown
You're making me think less.
Sam Seder
But. But let me say, this poop.
Stephen Wertheim
You call it satire?
Sam Seder
Sam Goes to satire on top of it all. My favorite part about you is just like every day, all day, like everything you do. Without a doubt. Hey, buddy. We see you. All right, folks, folks, folks.
Unknown
It's just the week being weeded out. Obviously.
Sam Seder
Yeah. Sun's out, guns out. I. I don't know. But you should know, people just don't.
Matt Lech
Like to entertain ideas anymore.
Sam Seder
I have a question. Who cares?
Matt Lech
Our chat is enabled, folks.
Sam Seder
I love it.
Unknown
I do love that.
Sam Seder
Gotta jump. Gotta be quick. I gotta jump. I'm losing it, bro. 2 o' clock, we're already late and the guy's being a dick. So screw him. Sent to a gulag.
Unknown
Outrageous.
Sam Seder
Like, what is wrong with you?
Stephen Wertheim
Love you.
Sam Seder
Bye. Love you. Bye. Bye.
Detailed Summary of "The Majority Report with Sam Seder" (Episode 2519)
Podcast Information:
Sam Seder opens the episode with an overview of the day's major political events. He sets the stage by highlighting the juxtaposition of Donald Trump's highly anticipated but poorly attended military parade against the backdrop of massive nationwide protests advocating for the "No Kings" movement. Additionally, Seder touches on recent political violence, including the arrest of a political assassin in Minnesota, and previews an in-depth interview with Stephen Wertheim from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace regarding Israel's military actions against Iran.
Summary: Donald Trump organized a $46 million military parade intended to showcase his administration's strength and military prowess. Contrary to expectations, the event was a significant flop, drawing an almost negligible audience despite the substantial expenditure.
Key Points:
High Investment vs. Low Attendance:
Satirical Presentation:
Public Reaction:
Notable Quotes:
Summary: The "No Kings" movement orchestrated one of the largest single-day protests in the United States in decades, with estimates ranging from 2.6 million to 6 million participants nationwide. These protests were simultaneously occurring across various cities, demonstrating significant public dissent against Trump's administration.
Key Points:
Scale and Impact:
Visual Evidence:
Violence and Tensions:
Notable Quotes:
Notable Incidents:
Aggressive Policing Tactics:
Protester Resilience:
Summary: The episode covers the arrest of an alleged political assassin responsible for the deaths of two Minnesota Democrats and their spouses. This individual is suspected of targeting multiple Democratic figures, indicating a surge in politically motivated violence.
Key Points:
Details of the Arrest:
Impact on Political Climate:
Notable Quotes:
Summary: Sam Seder engages in a comprehensive discussion with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow at the American Statecraft Program, about the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. The conversation delves into the historical context, strategic motivations, and potential implications of Israel's recent military actions against Iran.
Key Points:
Iran-Iraq War Legacy:
Neoconservative Policy Agendas:
Notable Quotes:
Preemptive Strikes:
Military Actions:
Impact on Iranian Proxies:
Notable Quotes:
Trump’s Negotiation Stance:
Potential U.S. Support:
Consequences for Diplomacy:
Notable Quotes:
Proxy Warfare:
International Response:
Economic Consequences:
Notable Quotes:
Escalation Risks:
Diplomatic Fallout:
Regime Stability:
Notable Quotes:
Summary: Post-interview, Sam Seder transitions to lighter segments, addressing various political topics and engaging with listeners through social media interactions.
Key Points:
New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary:
Union Dynamics:
Polling and Public Opinion:
Controversies:
Notable Quotes:
Sam Seder wraps up the episode by reinforcing the significance of the day's events, particularly the contrast between Trump's failed parade and the massive "No Kings" protests. He encourages listeners to engage in political activism, stay informed, and support the show to continue providing independent analysis.
Notable Quotes:
Note: This summary intentionally excludes advertisement segments, comedic bits, and non-content discussions to focus solely on the key political topics and in-depth analysis presented during the episode.