3529 - Republicans Finesse Trump's Big Bad Bill w/ David Dayen

Summary

The Majority Report with Sam Seder
Episode 3529: Republicans Finesse Trump's Big Bad Bill w/ David Dayen
Release Date: July 1, 2025

---

Introduction

In Episode 3529 of The Majority Report with Sam Seder, host Sam Seder welcomes David Dayen, Executive Editor of The American Prospect and host of The Organized Money podcast. The primary focus of the episode is the recent passage of a significant Republican reconciliation bill in the Senate, its profound implications on social programs, energy policies, and the broader political landscape.

---

Overview of the Republican Reconciliation Bill

[03:00] Sam Seder:
The episode begins with Sam Seder outlining the basic framework of the Senate's reconciliation bill, highlighting it as the "largest cut to the safety net in decades." The bill encompasses extensive reductions in Medicaid, SNAP (food stamps), and eliminates numerous tax incentives for sustainable energy programs. Notably, an excise tax on wind and solar energy, initially part of the bill, was removed through a last-minute amendment.

---

Impacts on Social Programs

Medicaid Cuts

[09:42] Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky:
Governor Beshear passionately discusses the devastating effects of the bill on rural America. He states, "This would be absolutely devastating to Kentucky, but it's going to be devastating to all of rural America... almost 12 million people over the course of the next five years could lose their health insurance" ([09:42]). The projected impact includes the loss of Medicaid coverage for millions, resulting in increased uninsured rates and significant public health risks.

SNAP Cuts

[11:35] Sam Seder:
Sam references the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predictions, noting that "3 million more would not qualify for food stamps" ([11:35]). The reduction in SNAP benefits threatens food security for millions of Americans, exacerbating poverty and hunger issues.

Health Insurance Loss

The bill is projected to cause approximately 11.8 million Americans to become uninsured by 2034, with an estimated 100,000 lives at risk due to reduced access to healthcare ([14:14]).

---

Allocation of Funds in the Bill

ICE Hiring and Border Security

[14:35] Sam Seder:
Sam highlights that the bill allocates substantial funds to border security, including "$10,000 signing bonuses for 10,000 new Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers" and "$46 billion for the wall at Mexico" ([14:35]). Additionally, "$350 billion for Trump's border and national security agenda."

Defense Budget

The bill proposes a significant increase in the defense budget by approximately $100 billion, reflecting a shift in national priorities towards military expenditure.

Energy Programs

Originally, the bill included harsh penalties for sustainable energy projects, effectively stifacing growth in wind and solar sectors. However, the recent amendment removed the excise tax on these industries ([23:05] Sam Seder).

Space Exploration

A notable allocation includes billions for the Artemis moon mission and the exploration of Mars, underscoring the administration's commitment to space endeavors ([14:35] Sam Seder).

---

Political Dynamics and Challenges in Passing the Bill

Senate Passage vs. House Challenges

[21:00] Sam Seder:
Sam details the process of the bill's passage in the Senate, emphasizing the narrow margin by which it was approved. He explains that after its Senate approval, the bill faces significant hurdles in the House of Representatives, where alignment with the House Freedom Caucus is crucial for its passage ([21:00]).

House Freedom Caucus Opposition

[30:26] David Dayen:
David Dayen discusses the obstacles within the House, particularly the resistance from the House Freedom Caucus. The caucus demands stringent spending cuts and adherence to a fiscally conservative agenda, which the current bill fails to meet. This discord creates uncertainty about the bill's ultimate fate in the House ([30:26]).

Potential Loss of Votes

The discussion highlights that the House may lose up to three critical votes, potentially derailing the bill’s passage. Key figures like Tom Massie and David Valadao are mentioned as possible dissenters who could oppose the bill despite moderate pressures ([37:16] Sam Seder; [38:45] David Dayen).

---

Quotes and Insights

Andy Beshear on the Impact

[09:42] Andy Beshear:
"Each and every one of them is the second largest employer in the community that they're in. So just imagine you're a small business in that community and the second largest employer goes under, all the jobs evaporate."

Sam Seder on Medicaid and SNAP Cuts

[11:35] Sam Seder:
"The bill has not gotten any better... 11.8 million more Americans would become uninsured by early 2030s. 3 million more would not qualify for food stamps."

David Dayen on Legislative Tactics

[24:14] David Dayen:
"The gimmick is called the current policy baseline. And what that means is... under a current law baseline, it looks like it saves $500 billion over that 10-year period."

Sam Seder on Budget Scoring

[25:52] Sam Seder:
"It's like the functional equivalent of like I make a decision to rent a car for 10 years and I've been renting that car, I've been paying whatever it is, you know, leasing the car, I've been paying $350 a month. And then at the end of that 10 years, I say, well, it's not going to cost me anything to keep paying for this because I've been paying for it already, essentially."

David Dayen on AI Regulation

[29:05] David Dayen:
"The AI ban was going to be a 10-year moratorium on regulation of AI at the state level... it was removed by a 99 to 1 vote."

---

Specific Legislative Issues

AI Regulation Removal

[29:04] Sam Seder:
The bill originally included a 10-year moratorium on state-level AI regulation, which was ultimately stripped from the final bill through a decisive 99 to 1 vote, marking a significant rollback of potential AI oversight ([29:05] David Dayen).

Medicaid and SNAP Cost-Sharing for Alaska and Other States

[44:01] David Dayen:
David explains the peculiar provisions added to gain support from Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The bill includes cost-sharing requirements for SNAP in Alaska and nine other states with high error rates, creating inconsistencies and inefficiencies within the program ([44:01]).

---

Political Maneuvering and Future Implications

[40:12] Sam Seder:
Sam reflects on the political strategy, noting that Republicans might leverage the impending 2026 elections to introduce another reconciliation bill focused solely on spending cuts, potentially reconciling with the Freedom Caucus demands ([42:55]).

[43:21] David Dayen:
David theorizes that Republicans are likely aware of their limited political capital and are attempting to enact as much as possible before potential electoral losses, suggesting a short-term, high-impact legislative strategy ([43:51]).

---

Conclusion and Call to Action

As the bill moves to the House, Sam Seder urges listeners, especially those in Republican districts, to contact their representatives to express opposition to the bill. He emphasizes the importance of voter engagement in influencing congressional votes and mitigating the bill's detrimental effects on social programs and healthcare ([50:21]).

Sam Seder:
"If you are in a Republican district, you can add some pressure to them. If it's a so-called moderate, tell them these cuts to Medicaid are absolutely unconscionable. And if it's in a Freedom Caucus, tell them that there's not enough cuts."

---

Notable Quotes Recap

• Andy Beshear:
  "If your rural hospital closes, you got to drive a couple hours just to see the doctor you used to see in your own community. If your parents get kicked off of their coverage and they're in long-term care costs, you got to bring them into your home and try to figure out how to keep them alive." ([09:42])

• Sam Seder:
  "It's like the functional equivalent of like I make a decision to rent a car for 10 years... I've been paying $350 a month. And then at the end of that 10 years, I say, well, it's not going to cost me anything to keep paying for this because I've been paying for it already, essentially." ([25:52])

• David Dayen:
  "The gimmick is called the current policy baseline... Under that current law baseline, it looks like it saves $500 billion over that 10-year period." ([24:14])

---

Final Thoughts

Episode 3529 of The Majority Report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Senate's Republican reconciliation bill, outlining its severe impacts on healthcare, food security, and fiscal policies. Through insightful discussions with David Dayen, Sam Seder elucidates the complexities of legislative tactics, the challenges within the House, and the broader implications for American socio-economic landscapes. The episode concludes with a strong call to action for listeners to engage in the democratic process to counteract the bill's far-reaching consequences.

---

For more in-depth analysis and ongoing updates, visit Majority.FM.

Transcript

[Sam Cedar]

Hey folks, Sommer is here. Let's talk about something that doesn't get enough attention and that is relaxation. Now people may find this hard to believe but I have trouble relaxing. So what helps me? Yes. Whoop. One of my Favorite sponsors, sunsetlake sabaday.com if you want to decompress this summer, Sunset Lake Saba day has you ready to go. Our friends at Sunset Lake are running a sitewide sale right now. 25% off site wide. 25% on all products. When you check out with the code July 4th, that's the word July and the number four with no spaces for me some of my biggest uses of Saba day to relax. Well, I use the good night oil every night to get to sleep. But on the weekends maybe after a big meal I'll have one of the pre rolls. I know others Matt will use some of the key for their buddy. Mix it in with other things that help you relax.

[Matt Lech]

It's a great product.

[Sam Cedar]

But they also have relaxed gummies. They have focus gummies too but that Brian doesn't. Brian's still recovering from how much focus he had. But they have all sorts of products. They got gummies that gum gummies with head say they got Gummy, they got Delta 9. They have Fudge Sabade coffee. You want to have that caffeine but you don't want to get too racy. Saba Day coffee plus you can relax more easily. Knowing our friends at Sunset Lake help support causes that we care about too. Carceral reform independent media outlets. They have provided obviously big supporters of this program. They've provided thousands of dollars to strike funds, direct aid for impoverished families on and on. And they're a great company, they've got a great product. Don't let this summer pass you by. De stress and decompress. When you head to sunsetlakesabade.com and use the coupon code July4. One word. Well, one word and one number. No spaces. July 4th it saves 25% sitewide. Sell ends July 7th at midnight Eastern time. Get on it. You want to try out these products, see their site for additional terms and conditions. And now time for the show the majority report with Sam Cedar. It is Tuesday, July 1, 2025. My name is Sam Cedar. This is the five time award winning Majority report. We are broadcasting live steps from the industrially ravaged Gowanus Canal in the heartland of America, downtown Brooklyn, usa. On the program today, reconciliation bill inching toward final vote in the Senate. David Dayen the American prospect will be here to give us the latest Meanwhile this Republican bill, regardless of what changes bring about over the next few minutes represents the largest cut to the safety net in decades. This bill also eliminates tax incentives for a whole host of sustainable energy programs. But late breaking the excise tax that it actually added to wind and solar was just voted out in an amendment moments ago. Meanwhile Musk and Trump, they're at it again. Let them fight. British Lancet Journal says USAID cuts may cause over 14 million deaths over the next five years. 14 million additional deaths Israel strikes a cafe in Gaza in addition to four schools and two hospitals that cafe known to serve journalists because it's one of the last places in Gaza with reliable Internet service. Last night Israel killed over 80 people. Meanwhile international charities and NGOs call for an end to the Israeli U S backed aid site because Israel has been using it as a killing field. Meanwhile Russia now paying unwitting or paying young Ukrainians to be unwitting suicide bombers. California law passed exempts certain housing projects from CQ the environmental major environmental bill I should say law in California. Duke loses NIH grants because they use the prefix trans in reference to things like disease transmission and transnational studies. Lastly new report flu shot during pregnancy associated with a 44% reduction in flu for babies under the 6 months old. All this and more on today's majority report. And I'm also just being told that today is Canada's birthday so happy birthday Canada. Perhaps in the fun half we'll give you a shofar if you call it, we'll see. Things are moving very very quickly right now in the Senate or I should say are happening as we speak as of this morning and working through the night on this record breaking vote A rama they had over something like 42 votes. The Senate Republicans have just, sorry literally three minutes ago passed their reconciliation mega bill. David Dane will be on in a moment or two to give us a sense of what's in it. I mean they were writing this thing up until the last minute and it will then head to the House where they will have to pass this version or perhaps huddle and work out some type of compromise. In the House reports were as late as last night. House Republicans were basically saying how did they manage to make this bill even effing worse and there's a bunch of Republican so called moderates who will almost guaranteed lose their seat if they pass this bill as is and we'll see whether or not they will actually vote for it. But just to give you a sense of how it's going to devastate. We're talking in the last version of this bill, almost a trillion dollars cut out of Medicaid upwards to 11 million. Almost 12 million people over the course of the next five years could lose their health insurance. We're talking tens of thousands, if not over 100,000 people will lose their lives. Millions of people will be kicked off of snap. It goes on and on. This pays for a huge hiring boost to ICE to build the wall at Mexico to build detention centers for immigrants. It increases the defense budget by something like $100 billion. Here is Andy Beshear, Kentucky governor on with Jen Psaki on MSNBC last night talking about this, what it's going to mean for rural America.

[Andy Beshear]

Well, first, you are entirely right that this would be absolutely devastating to Kentucky, but it's going to be devastating to all of rural America. You mentioned that it is basically going to fire because that's what Donald Trump and everybody who votes for this is doing. They are firing health care workers across the country. 20,000 in my state, 200,000 people in Kentucky and millions more aren't going to be able to get the treatments they need. They might not survive. And those 35 rural hospitals that are at risk of closing, Jen, each and every one of them is the second largest employer in the community that they're in. So just imagine you're a small business in that community and the second largest employer goes under, all the jobs evaporate. What happens? Your entire community's economy takes a major hit and all of a sudden you as a small business maybe laying some people off as well. But then take the families and how they're going to be impacted whether you're on Medicaid or on private insurance. If your rural hospital closes, you got to drive a couple hours just to see the doctor you used to see in your own community. If your parents get kicked off of their coverage and they're in long term care costs, you got to bring them into your home and try to figure out how to keep them alive. Half of Kentucky's kids are covered under Medicaid. They lose their coverage and you are scrambling over that next prescription. This is going to impact the life of every single American negatively. It is going to hammer our economy and it is wrong and it is mean. And I cannot believe that people refuse to do their job and represent their people that they were sent to Washington to represent and instead are just pledging fealty towards someone pushing such a damaging piece of legislation.

[Sam Cedar]

Hard to add to that, the CBO predicts. And again this was the scoring that took place last week, but certainly the bill has not gotten any better. 11.8 million more Americans would become uninsured by early 2000 and 30s. 3 million more would not qualify for food stamps. And this is to say nothing of the tax cuts for billionaires and millionaires and the tax increases for people who are living in poverty. I mean, it's astonishing. The highest tax cuts, or I should say as a percentage of the existing tax cuts happen in the more or less $150,000 and up. Folks in between will be getting a. Also a reduction in taxes, but we'll be paying for it in insurance rates. When you have so many people having to go to the emergency room, you'll be paying for it in terms of, I mean, a whole host of other. You'll be paying for it insofar as energy costs, day trip to the hospital, Medicaid patients may be paying a new $35 co payment. It however, you should be buoyed by the fact that there would be 10,000 new immigration and Customs Enforcement officers who will be getting a $10,000 signing bonus. $350 billion for Trump's border and national security agenda, $46 billion for the wall, $45 billion for 100,000 migrant detention facility beds. There's a tax credit, however, if you produce metallurgical coal and there are billions for the Artemis moon mission and the exploration of Mars.

[Matt Lech]

Do you see what the tribune of the working class, J.D. vance, said? The thing that will bankrupt this country? Oh, sorry. He called the stuff about Medicaid trivialities. Minutiae, I think, is the specific word. And what we really need to do is get these border provisions and money to ICE folks through.

[Sam Cedar]

Over 100,000 people will die because of the lack of health care. Now, of course, you know, we saw this the first time around in Covid Whatever here. Well, let's take a. In a moment, we're going to be talking to David Dayen about this. Like I say, the bill literally just passed moments ago. First word from our sponsor. This episode is sponsored by Liquid iv. Super easy for me to pitch this every day on this program. I drink at least one of these, particularly in the summer. And the best part is, not only does it keep my whistle wet while I do the show, but I actually feel it at the end of the day. Being hydrated is healthy. Doesn't matter how hot your summer gets. Liquid IV can help you be hydrated for the adventures ahead. Summer heat means it's the perfect time to try their New arctic raspberry flavor. Plus Liquid IV has sugar free solutions powered by Liv Hydro Science. For smart hydration, visit LiquidIV.com and use the code Majority Rep not majority report Majority Rep at checkout you will get 20% off your first order. For me I am all in on the sugar free versions of Liquid iv. They have like a raspberry lemonade. There's a, a melon, there's a lemon lime. They're fantastic. And they come in these little packets. Super easy to travel with if you're traveling. Great for, you know, flying and keep yourself hydrated if you're going out. Had a fun night the night before. You can find all of their best selling hydration multipliers of flavors online. And now you can try their newest flavor hydration multiplier Arctic Raspberry. They got more fun flavors too like cotton candy and popsicle firecracker. Just one stick plus 16 ounces of water hydrates you better than water alone. Powered by LIV Hydroscience, an optimized ratio of electrolytes, essential vitamins and clinically tested nutrients that turn ordinary water into extraordinary hydration. They have three times the electrolytes of the leading sports drink. Eight essential vitamins and nutrients always non gmo, vegan, gluten free, dairy free and soy free. Squeeze the most out of your summer with Liquid IV tear pour live more. Go to liquidiv.com get 20% off your first order with code majorityrep a checkout that's 20% off your first order with the code [e-mail] let's take a quick break and when we come back, we'll be talking to David Dayen.

[Matt Lech]

It's.

[Sam Cedar]

We are back. Sam Cedar on the Majority Report. Emma Viland out on her honeymoon. Yeah, classic. Want to welcome back to the program executive editor of the American Prospect, host.

[David Dayen]

Of the Wrap up, the weekly roundup and also the Organized Money podcast.

[Sam Cedar]

Oh, right, Exactly. All right, well, I'll get that straight.

[David Dayen]

Got a great one out today, Organized Money fm.

[Sam Cedar]

The Organized Money podcast is actually is. Is one of my rare listens. I don't listen to many other shows, but I always learn something from both you and Stoler on.

[David Dayen]

We got a great one today on Spotify. It's really good.

[Sam Cedar]

Folks should check that out. But in the meantime, the Senate reconciliation bill no longer called the one big beautiful bill. He really showed him.

[David Dayen]

Keep going, Chuck.

[Sam Cedar]

You can't call that officially that just passed and the final passage of the bill was released about 15 minutes ago. 900 some odd pages I wanted David Dayen on because I know by now he's read all 900 and whatnot pages of that bill. David, welcome back to the program.

[David Dayen]

Fortunately for me, it was only 887. Oh, all right.

[Sam Cedar]

Well that's why you got here. I was able to get read so early.

[David Dayen]

Yeah, I spot checked it. Let's, let's say that I think people.

[Sam Cedar]

Know the headline story. A trillion dollars, it appears to be cut from Medicaid. It is going to possibly cause the deaths of about 110,000 people over the course of the next 5, 10 years who would otherwise have health care. It's going to kick up to 12 million people off of Medicaid by 2034. 3 million off of SNAP.

[David Dayen]

You factor out the deaths that only kick, you know, 11.9 million people off.

[Sam Cedar]

I guess that's true.

[David Dayen]

Die. So, you know, don't be so harsh. As J.D. vance would say, it's only minutia.

[Sam Cedar]

Let's not get into the minutiae of this stuff. And then of course it assaults like the, any type of not so small advances we had made to deal with like decarbonizing our economy. It is shocking. At the last minute, apparently they got rid of the excise tax that would have actually taxed. Yeah, but talk about, explain this. I've mentioned it many times on the show. But when we get into like the deficit and the debt, the, the Senate did something and I don't understand how they got away with doing it without having to sort of fire the parliamentarian, which was an accounting trick that makes it seem like this is not adding huge trillions of dollars to the debt. Now I'm not necessarily so concerned about the debt as I am it completely obfuscating what the reality of this bill is?

[David Dayen]

Well, the reality is that they couldn't have passed the bill without this trick. So the gimmick is called the current policy baseline. And what that means is is that the Trump tax cuts, as you know, expire at the end of this year. And one of the big things in this bill extends those Trump tax cuts and makes them permanent and that under a current law, because the law is the tax cuts expire and so starting in 2026, they would pick up again. So under that current law baseline, that would cost almost $3.8 trillion over that 10 year period. Right. So what the Senate Republicans said is that, well actually that's just current policy. We're just extending what was already the policy of the United States. And so that actually costs $0. And that is the difference in this bill between a bill that will cost and we don't know about the final stuff like the killing of the excise tax. And there were some other changes. So we don't know the final number, but at least as of this weekend, the estimate was it cost $3.3 trillion over that decade, the bill that would add that much to the debt. Now, with the current policy baseline, it looks like it saves $500 billion over that 10 year period.

[Sam Cedar]

So it's like the functional equivalent of like I make a decision to rent a car for 10 years and I've been renting that car, I've been paying whatever it is, you know, leasing the car, I've been paying $350 a month. And then at the end of that 10 years, I say, well, it's not going to cost me anything to keep paying for this because I've been paying for it already, essentially.

[David Dayen]

I mean, you know, it does offer opportunities to the other side if they ever get back into power. For Democrats, I mean, if you conceive of this, and actually Republicans were asked this on the record and they conceded that this would happen. If you passed a bill that said we are imposing Medicare for All for a year or a week or a day, and then you subsequently pass a bill that says we are just extending Medicare for all to make it permanent, that permanence of Medicare for all would not cost any money.

[Sam Cedar]

Right.

[David Dayen]

So I am, I am ready in the project 2029 that I'm sure third way and you know, Anne Marie Slaughter are putting together for the Medicare for All for One Day act of 2029, which will then subsequently be followed up by making it permanent and costing no money.

[Sam Cedar]

That would be encouraging. But let me ask him one more question about the permanence of the tax cuts. When we say permanent, does that just mean that they're not set to sunset? I mean, how do they. Oh, and the way that they can make them permanent is as long as.

[David Dayen]

They do them for 10 years, they're permanent. I mean, that, that's kind of under the budget scoring that we have. If you say these tax cuts are now permanent, the way that it's scored, it only looks at the ten year budget window.

[Sam Cedar]

But do they, they don't sunset.

[David Dayen]

They will not sunset and they don't.

[Sam Cedar]

Have to sunset because theoretically they don't exist.

[David Dayen]

Here's the funny thing. There are other taxes in this bill that do sunset. All of Trump's campaign promise taxes. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on interest on auto loans. It's not no tax on Social Security. It's a deduction for people over the age of 65. All of those are four years. They're only there for four years. Right. So they could then use this gimmick again if Republicans are still in power and say, oh, well, current law is no tax on tips, so we'll just extend that and it won't cost any money. So they are simultaneously using a current law baseline to shrink the perceived cost of certain taxes and using a current policy baseline to eliminate the cost of certain taxes in the course of the same bill.

[Sam Cedar]

Let's talk about the AI Bang.

[David Dayen]

Anything else?

[Sam Cedar]

Okay. Well, I mean, I guess, you know, the AI ban is gone. The ban on the ability to regulate AI is gone.

[David Dayen]

Just to be clear, it was going to be a 10 year moratorium on regulation of AI at the state level. And the way they were going to do this is they had a pot of money that states wouldn't be able to access unless they agreed to this moratorium. And there was a deal attempted by, you know, some senators on the Republican side who disagreed with this. They shrunk it for a bit and then that deal blew up. And then there was a vote last night to strip this moratorium from the bill and it passed 99 to 1. So big tech lobbyists who were pushing for this very heavily and hard obviously miscalculated severely that they would be able to muscle this through because literally almost every senator voted against it in the end.

[Sam Cedar]

Yeah, that's not very close. So that is, that is gone. What are the other, what are the things in the bill, as you can tell right now, that are going to be problems for the House? Now when this goes to the House, are they going to do a conference or is the House like sort of.

[David Dayen]

Just decides whether they're going to try? I mean, Mike Johnson, speaker, is going to try to pass this immediately. In fact, as is there. As is there is a Rules Committee session today and House members are expected back to Washington tomorrow to start voting on this. And you know, in a perfect world, Johnson would have this on the president's desk by July 4th. Now, is he going to be able to do that? Well, there are several things that the House Freedom Caucus had said we're absolutely not going to pass that are in this Senate bill. The first one is the House isn't going by this current policy baseline gimmick. And so they see red ink in this bill more than what they wanted in a, in, in the bill. So the, the, the House in their budget resolution said we can have no more than $2.5 trillion in tax cuts more than the spending cuts in the bill. If there is, if that relationship isn't maintained, you have to reduce the, the tax cuts. You have to, you have to change those in some way so that they aren't as costly. And that is not in here. That violates the budget resolution, and more important, it violates the promise that was made to the House Freedom Caucus that this would happen. And that's about 30 people. The House can only lose. Republicans only lose three votes in the House to pass this. So that's one is that it's too much taxation or too much, not enough spending cuts. The second is on the energy provisions. So you mentioned that there were these changes to the clean energy provisions that made them very, very harsh and would have made it almost impossible to produce a solar or wind project in this country because not only were the tax credits phased out very quickly, but there was this new excise tax on solar and wind projects that would have increased the cost of building a solar wind project to a degree that you couldn't, you couldn't ever pencil it out. Those were taken out at the last minute at the end of the bill. I think, also to get Lisa Murkowski's vote. Lisa Murkowski got a bounty of things, a bunch of gifts, including tax breaks for whaling captains in Alaska and tax breaks for Alaskan fishing villages. This is literally in the bill. But another thing she actually wanted is to. To weaken the phase out of these tax credits. So the tax on solar and wind is out. As long as you begin construction on a solar or wind project in the next year, you get the tax credit. You have to have that in service by 2027. So there's going to actually, if this bill passes, be a gold rush of solar and wind projects trying to get in under the wire within a year of passage of this enactment of the bill. However, this is exactly the thing that the House Freedom Caucus didn't want. As a result, as a condition of them passing the bill in the House, they wanted the energy tax credits much, much harsher, and they've rolled back to being weaker to a degree in the Senate version. So you put those two things together, and that's on the hard line. Deficit, hawk side, that's going to be a problem. And then the Medicaid cuts are still much more harsh in the Senate bill than they were in the House bill. Now there is a rural hospital fund that was doubled in the final version from 25 billion to 50 billion. But that's still a fraction of the nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years that are going to be in this bill. And there are some House moderates who have said these Medicaid cuts are a bridge too far. I can't vote for this bill. So you put that all together, they can only lose three votes. Tom Massie is one. He's not going to vote for this bill. Let's say they get one. You know, they minimize their losses to maybe one guy. There's a guy, David Valadao, who's in the Central Valley of California. His district has the second highest concentration of Medicaid recipients in the country. He's probably not voting for this bill. So that's two. So you can only lose one more and pass the bill on the House side, which means you have to accommodate the Freedom Caucus and make sure that they pass this version of the bill. Ultimately, what this comes down to is who's going to defy Donald Trump. Massie will, because he's done it all the time. Valadao voted for Trump's impeachment. He doesn't mind going against him. But who else is going to. Who else is going to say to Donald Trump, I'm not passing your agenda because I don't like this part or that part. They're going to have to prove to me that they're willing to do that.

[Sam Cedar]

I got a couple of questions. The. So there's 30 members of the House Freedom Caucus. If they had put down a real hard line on this, if they accept this, there's no point to them. Right. I mean, I'm just like, I'm trying to give people some sense of, like, how they can do this. If you live in a red district with the House Freedom Caucus, your congressperson does not know what your politics are. I would call that office and go, I put you in there for fiscal sanity. And if you could actually vote for this, there's no point in having a Freedom Caucus.

[David Dayen]

I'd like to see the delta of Majority Report viewers who live in hard right conservative districts. But maybe there are some.

[Sam Cedar]

Oh, we have a lot. You'd be surprised. In fact, those are some of the most intense audience members, because they have to. They have to basically be inside.

[David Dayen]

There's another thing that those Freedom Caucus members have to think about, and that is Elon Musk. So Elon Musk is very much against this bill, partially on the energy grounds, but also on the fact that it doesn't cut enough spending for his liking. Like he is a kind of a hard right Tea partier at this point, Elon Musk, and he is the world's richest man and he has a lot of money to fund primary challenges against Freedom Caucus members if they don't adhere to the deal that they set up just a few months ago.

[Sam Cedar]

So when you call those Freedom Caucus House members, say you are personally writing Elon Musk and asking him to fund a primary challenger to them. In terms of the, the, the House moderates, the COLA stuff that they wanted seems to be more or less close to what they wanted. They wanted 40,000 salt. I'm sorry.

[David Dayen]

So yeah, as far as the state and local tax deduction is concerned, they again, to make this look cheaper, did a partial change to that deduction cap. So the salt caucus wanted to change from you can write off $10,000 of your state and local taxes on your federal taxes. They wanted to up that to $40,000. That the ultimate deal is. That is true for only five years. So once again they use this current law baseline to make those look cheaper, even though they could now the precedent ascent, they can come back and make it permanent. And it would cost $0. Right. So one member of the Salt Caucus, this guy Nick LaLota in New York said, I don't agree with that. I'm not going to vote for that. But, but we kind of, you know, I'm a little skeptical of him as well, whether he'll actually defy Trump on that.

[Sam Cedar]

And those are now the three votes that they can afford to lose. Is Gerry Connolly seat filled?

[David Dayen]

It's not filled. They had a primary. The general election doesn't happen, I believe until September.

[Sam Cedar]

So it's only 3 votes they can afford to lose. Even without Connolly's vote in Connolly, even.

[David Dayen]

Raul Grahalva, even without there was another member of the House Democrats who died. Even with all three of those gone, they can only lose three votes. If those, if they were there, they would only need be able to lose two votes.

[Sam Cedar]

It would be nice if we didn't have so many people in the Democratic caucus pass away.

[David Dayen]

Yeah.

[Sam Cedar]

What do you think the chances are? I mean, it goes over to the House. It feels like that this is going to happen like that. It's unlikely that anybody's going to buck Donald Trump.

[David Dayen]

I mean, as I said, they have to show me that they're willing to do that before I would believe it. So maybe it'll happen if, if, if the Freedom Caucus actually believed in the principles they espouse this bill would not pass. Right. But I don't believe that they do. I, they have to show me that they're willing to buck Donald Trump. In order to do that.

[Sam Cedar]

I want to go back to the beginning of the year a little bit because when this first, like when the first budget resolution was passed, the one that sets up like sort of the, the umbrella to allow reconciliation to happen, there was a sense by all of this sort of like conventional wisdom, people like the top sort of like Democrats, that this was never going to pass, that they weren't going to be able to do it. And they were surprised that Johnson got it across the threshold. And I think to a certain extent the threat of Elon Musk primary was underestimated as an incentive factor.

[David Dayen]

Well, here's what I'd say. Going into 2025, Mike Johnson had no track record of legislative success. And we were coming out of a two year session where the caucus was so fractured and so divided that they couldn't even do basic things like hang on to a speaker. So there was some reason to believe that it was going to be problematic for Johnson to get the herd of cats in line. So I don't disagree with that. I think that, that it was certainly the conventional wisdom and there was good reason for it. There was actual evidence for that. What I think was underplayed is the degree to which the Republican Party is just Donald Trump's party. And if Donald Trump wants something, he's likely to get it. And so that has really, that has informed this entire process.

[Sam Cedar]

Once they pass this bill, it's basically done, right? I mean, their legislative session. I mean, I guess there's the, the 2026 budget, but it's largely the 26 budget.

[David Dayen]

There's, you know, the crypto bill only passed the Senate, so they got to figure out what to do in the House with that. There are some other things here and there that need to be done. But yes, this was the entire agenda. Now one thing that's being talked about, and this is particularly as an enticement to the Freedom Caucus is Mike Johnson has started floating, oh, we'll do another reconciliation bill in 2026 and we'll get you that, you know, you don't like that there aren't enough spending cuts in this one. That one will do all spending cuts and we'll get you the spending cuts you need in the 2026 version of the reconciliation bill. And that may be enough to get the Freedom Caucus on board. They'll say, oh, well, we're going to do this next year. Now, whether they actually do it next year, who knows?

[Sam Cedar]

But I was going to say, are they aware that 2026 is an election year? But it does, it does feel like the Republicans know that. I mean, the way that they govern, the way that they legislate, I should say they do it like they know they are going to get voted out of office no matter what in the next election. And so we're going to do as much as we can.

[David Dayen]

If you hear from some liberals, they'll say they're voting like they think they're never going to be voted out of office. And I don't necessarily subscribe to that. It's sort of a bit conspiratorial for me that they're not going to hold elections next year or something like that. But I think your way of framing it is more correct that when Republicans get in office, they realize they have limited political capital and they start spending it as fast as they can.

[Sam Cedar]

Anything else we left on the table, I mean, this is going to be like a real world disaster for many people. Is there any. What was the last piece of legislation?

[David Dayen]

I will tell you the strangeness around the Murkowski deal. So Murkowski got, she got those little tax credits and everything, but she got two big things, which was to, this was in the original deal to increase the federal share of Medicaid for Alaska and to waive what is called the cost sharing of the SNAP program, which is more commonly known as food stamps for Alaska, whereby the state of Alaska would have to pay into a federal share of. Of to maintain that program. Typically, SNAP is entirely paid for at the federal level. This would be the first time states would have to participate, and states don't have that money. And it would lead to, you know, severe cuts to the SNAP program. So she wanted both of those. The parliamentarian threw both of those out. And they worked really hard to get the Medicaid thing back in, and it didn't work. The parliamentarian, literally, they were, they were. This was on C Span. The parliamentarian was standing at the desk with a handwritten amendment and there was a debate happening between staffers of the Republican and Democratic caucus. And the parliamentarian said, no, we can't do that Medicaid thing. However, they did get this cost sharing waiver for Alaska, but it's not just for Alaska because they, they, the parliamentarian threw it out, thinking, well, this is just a policy for one state. This is so you can get that. So they expanded that cost sharing to the 10 states with the highest payment error rates in SNAP, they get more time to before they do the cost sharing. That includes New York, that includes New Jersey, it includes Maryland, it includes Massachusetts, it includes Oregon, a host of blue states. Now, get this, this benefit along with Alaska because they needed it to buy Murkowski's vote. Now, so here's this program. The program is supposed to be, we're going to make it, make SNAP more efficient. So we're going to give you an incentive if you have low error rates in your program, and we're going to punish you if you have high error rates in your program. However, now, because the high error rates get an exemption, you're only punishing the people in the states in the middle. Now, in terms of error rates, the people on the low side don't have to pay the federal cost share. The people on the high side don't have to pay the federal cost share. Only the states in the middle have to pay, which makes no sense whatsoever. And as Amy Klobuchar said on the Senate floor, this is an incentive for more errors in Snap.

[Sam Cedar]

That's because it gets you into the top 10. It's almost like you want to. You're going to throw the last couple of games of a season so you get a higher lottery pick.

[David Dayen]

Yeah, there's tanking going on now. So it's a. This is the kind of backwards lawmaking that we've engaged in in order to, to, for Republicans to pass this bill.

[Sam Cedar]

What was the name in. I think it was during the Obama years, the Golden Gate Giveaway or whatever it was.

[David Dayen]

There was the Cornhusker kickback.

[Sam Cedar]

That's what it was. The Corn Husky. This is what that is.

[David Dayen]

It is what that is. And I call it the Alaska Gold Rush. But you could call it the Kodiak kickback, I assume. But the point is that Murkowski. Look, I mean, there is, there's a world in which every senator should be fighting for their state. And, you know, Josh Hawley looks like an idiot. He didn't get anything from Missouri the way that Murkowski did for Alaska. All of these other senators didn't fight as hard for their states as Murkowski did. And, you know, if they did, maybe we wouldn't have any of these Medicaid cuts or SNAP cuts.

[Sam Cedar]

Where does Josh Hawley's perspective on place him on the populist meter?

[David Dayen]

I think he's forfeited that completely by voting for this bill. He came out and gave this whiny speech about how this shouldn't be what the Republican Party is. We shouldn't be cutting Medicaid, even though he's voting to cut Medicaid. And it's a real leadership.

[Sam Cedar]

That's called leadership.

[David Dayen]

Now, his theory is, oh, I can cut off some of these taxes at the pass or cut off some of these Medicaid cuts down the road. And good luck to you on that one, Josh.

[Sam Cedar]

Well, he wanted to be able to make the changes from the inside and be one of the people who are voting. David Dayan, thanks so much for hopping on and walking us through this. It's the folks should be checking out the prospect on a daily basis to get, get this information in a way that nobody else has. Thanks so much. I really appreciate it.

[David Dayen]

Thank you.

[Sam Cedar]

All right, folks, before we go into the fun half the program, let's put up a Washington phone number. Again, this is one of those situations where if you live in a Republican district, you can actually, you know, make it make their vote a little bit more difficult. If you live in a Freedom Caucus or House Freedom Caucus district, you can make their vote a little more difficult. You can say, honestly, I'm gonna write Elon Musk and hope that he finances your primary. They have made, they have put their flag in the, in the ground as, as stalwart defenders of the deficit or debt. And now you can tell them, you know, what's happening. Do we have a number?

[Matt Lech]

Yeah, I'm looking for, I'm looking for a good 212-022-243121. I'm looking for a good way to display it, but that's the number 202-224-3121.

[Sam Cedar]

That's 202-224-3121. Also, we should tell you that the results are.

[Matt Lech]

Put it on a chiron.

[Sam Cedar]

Okay, we'll put up that number. And we should also tell you the results of the final results of the New York mayoral race is out. And it would appear it looked like Mamdani won by 7 percentage points the first round of voting. You'll recall, he did not cross the 50% threshold. So therefore, the final results would have to go into the ranked choice voting process. And it appears, sadly for Andrew Cuomo, that he lost in the second round by over 10 percentage points. Is that right, guys?

[Matt Lech]

56 to 44. I saw. It's exactly 12.

[Sam Cedar]

If I believe that, if I'm counting correctly, it is. That is 12, 12 points. What that's going to do, it doesn't change anything. And this again is the number that you can Contact your, your Congressperson 200.

[Matt Lech]

But it's the same number 202, 224.

[Sam Cedar]

3121 and and who should be calling that is if you are in a Republican district, I mean it's important to call your Democratic congress people too. Tell them they better take that vote, they better show up there. Nobody should be taking an early July 4th vacation. Make sure you're there for that vote. Apparently Jeffries is doing a caucus meeting this afternoon. But if you're in a Republican district, you can add some pressure to them. If it's a so called moderate, tell them these cuts to Medicaid are absolutely unconscionable. And if it's in a freedom caucus, tell them that there's not enough cuts. This hinky math where they're pretending like the baseline is different than it is, you see right through that. And in fact right now you're sitting down to write a handwritten letter to Elon Musk begging him to finance a primary of the of your congressperson. Meanwhile, Zoran Mandani in the second round wins by 12 percentage points in this mayoral election. The only thing that I think like the implications of this are if you're Andrew Cuomo and particularly there's a New Yorker, I think New York magazine article that's come out that shows just how lazy Cuomo is and incompetent. But if you are, if you're a big donor, you're not going to look at these numbers and be encouraged that you're going to get your money. There's going to be any type of return on investment. So that's pretty good stuff. We're going to head to the fun half folks. A reminder, it's your support that makes this show possible. You can become a member by going to join the MajorityReport.com when you do, you only get the free show free of commercials, but you also get the fun half. Also don't forget just coffee co op, fair trade coffee, hot chocolate. Use the coupon code. Majority get 10% off. They've got all sorts of different coffees there and they, they're a co op. They really support their farmers. Great company, great coffee, just coffee co op. You can get the majority report blend there. It's a wonderful conversation starter folks. Over you bring the coffee bag on the platter in which you serve the coffee. Also don't forget am quickie amquickie.com get the news in a very easy to read quick digest every morning to your email box amquickie.com Matt, what's happening on Left Reckoning?

[Matt Lech]

Yeah, tonight I Left Reckoning talking Zoran again with Ashik Siddiqui of the dsa. So look forward to that. And then also talking about another type of Democrat, Colin Allred, who has announced he's running again in Texas to make a lot of money for consultants again. So check this out tonight. Patreon.com LeftReckoning Quick break.

[Sam Cedar]

Fun half. Three months from now, six months from now, nine months from now. And I don't think it's going to be the same as it looks like in six months from now. And I don't know if it's necessarily going to be better six months from now than it is three months from now, but I think around 18 months out, we're going to look back and go like, wow, what? What is that going on? It's nuts. Wait a second. Hold on. Hold on for a sec. Emma. Welcome to the protest.

[David Dayen]

A Fun half.

[Sam Cedar]

Matt. What is up, everyone? No. McKee, you did it. Fun path.

[David Dayen]

Let's go, Brandon. Let's go, Brandon.

[Sam Cedar]

Fun path. Bradley, you want to say hello? Sorry to disappoint everyone. I'm just a random guy. It's all the boys today.

[David Dayen]

Fundamentally false. No. I'm sorry.

[Sam Cedar]

Women talking for a second. Let me finish.

[David Dayen]

Where is this coming from? Dude?

[Sam Cedar]

But. Dude, you want to smoke this seven egg? Yes. Yes. Is this me?

[David Dayen]

Is it me?

[Sam Cedar]

It is you?

[David Dayen]

Is this me?

[Sam Cedar]

Hello, that's me. I think it is you. Who is you?

[David Dayen]

No sound.

[Sam Cedar]

Every single freaking day. What's on your mind?

[David Dayen]

Sports. We can discuss free markets and we can discuss capitalism.

[Sam Cedar]

I'm gonna go libertarians. They're so stupid. Though common sense says of course.

[David Dayen]

Gobbledygook.

[Sam Cedar]

We nailed him.

[David Dayen]

So what's 79 plus 21? Challenge. Man, I'm positively quivering. I believe. 96. I want to say.

[Sam Cedar]

8572-1035-5501-1389, 11. For instance.

[David Dayen]

$3,400. $1,900. 5, 4.

[Sam Cedar]

$3 trillion.

[David Dayen]

Sold.

[Sam Cedar]

It's a zero sum game.

[David Dayen]

Actually. You're making me think less.

[Sam Cedar]

But. But let me say this poop.

[David Dayen]

You call it satire. Sam goes satire on top of it all. My favorite part about you is just.

[Sam Cedar]

Like every day, all day, like everything you do. Without a doubt. Hey, buddy. We see you. All right, folks, folks, folks.

[David Dayen]

It's just the week being weeded out. Obviously.

[Sam Cedar]

Yeah. Sun's out, guns out. I. I don't know.

[David Dayen]

But you should know.

[Sam Cedar]

People just don't like to entertain ideas. I have a question. Who cares?

[Matt Lech]

O chat is enabled, folks.

[Sam Cedar]

I love it.

[David Dayen]

I do love that.

[Sam Cedar]

Gotta jump. Gotta be quick. I gotta jump. I'm losing it, bro. 2 o' clock, we're already late and the guy's being a dick. So screw him. Sent to a gulag.

[David Dayen]

Outrageous.

[Sam Cedar]

Like, what is wrong with you? Love you.

[David Dayen]

Bye.

[Sam Cedar]

Love you.

[David Dayen]

Bye.

[Sam Cedar]

Bye.