3587 - ICE Whistle Blown, Sheinbaum's Gamble and State of the Union w/ Alexander Avina

Summary

The Majority Report with Sam Seder – Episode 3587

ICE Whistle Blown, Sheinbaum's Gamble and State of the Union w/ Alexander Avina
Date: February 24, 2026
Host: Sam Seder
Guests: Alexander Avina (Historian), Todd Stormer (Commentator)
Contributors: Emma Viglin, Brian

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles three interwoven themes in contemporary politics:

1. The breaking ICE whistleblower testimony illuminating the erosion of legal protections in US immigration enforcement.
2. The political and historical context of Mexico’s crackdown on the Jalisco cartel (with expert insights from historian Alexander Avina), including the response of new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and the implications for US-Mexico relations.
3. A preview and sharp critique of the US State of the Union address by President Trump, centering on Democratic response strategy, intra-party dynamics, and how political storytelling shapes public perception.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

ICE Whistleblower Revelations

Summary:
A former ICE instructor, Ryan Schwenk, delivered explosive testimony about ICE’s unconstitutional directives and dangerously abbreviated training programs for new agents under the Trump administration.

Details & Insights:

• Lack of Training: ICE slashed 240 hours from its 584-hour basic training program. Cut material included courses on the Constitution, the legal system, firearms, use of force, and lawful arrests ([09:06] Ryan Schwenk, [11:32] discussion).
  • "DHS leadership has dismantled the academic and practical tests that we need to know if cadets can safely and lawfully perform their job... DHS told the public that new cadets receive all the training they need... This is a lie." — Ryan Schwenk ([09:06])
• Orders to Violate the Constitution: Schwenk was instructed to teach recruits to enter homes without judicial warrants, violating Fourth Amendment protections. Only “administrative warrants” (essentially memos, not judicial warrants) were required ([09:06] Schwenk, [13:05] Brian).
• Political Motivation & Paramilitarization:
  • The purpose of short-circuiting training is not merely expediency but to deliberately ensure fewer constraints on ICE agents, making the agency a paramilitary wing usable for intimidation, particularly leading into the election season ([15:34] Sam Seder, [13:05] Brian).
    • "ICE is not a law enforcement agency as much as it is a paramilitary force that backs up the fascist administration and serves as an intimidating tactic at polling sites." — Brian ([13:05])
  • Recruitment is drawing from extremist, far-right organizations willing to use force.
• Historical Analogy:
  • Sam compares the dismantling of constraints at ICE to how the US torture scandal developed during the Iraq war—not through explicit orders to torture, but the removal of prohibitions and oversight ([12:00]).

The Right’s Response and Political Spin

• Senator Mike Lee’s “Cartel Masks” Tweet:
  • Example of rightwing attempts to collapse cartel violence with US immigrant populations and justify ICE’s actions.
    • "Cartel hitmen wear masks. Leftists aren't complaining." — Mike Lee’s Tweet ([19:18])
  • Immediate Democratic responses highlight the absurdity of the conflation and reinforce the call for law enforcement accountability ([19:51] Brian Schatz, [20:12] Chuck Schumer).

Mexico’s Crackdown on the Jalisco Cartel

Guest Expert: Alexander Avina ([28:18]–[37:46])

Historical & Political Context:

• US Pressure:
  • Heightened GOP rhetoric (calls for US military action against cartels) and recent actions in Venezuela have pressured Mexico’s government. Trump has personally pressured and publicly commented on Sheinbaum's approach to cartels.
• The Operation against El Mencho:
  • Killing of cartel leader El Mencho triggered widespread retaliatory violence ("narco bloqueos") across 15 Mexican states, burning vehicles and causing dozens of casualties ([30:33] Avina).
    • "The unprecedented scale of it... happened in 15 states... more than 250 narco bloqueos." — Avina ([30:33])
• Morena’s Approach & the Limits of “Hugs Not Bullets”:
  • The ruling Morena party campaigned against militarized drug policing (“hugs not bullets”), but, in practice, has continued militarization due to political and external pressures ([31:16] Avina).
  • True roots of the violence: Massive US demand for drugs and US-sourced firearms fueling cartel power ([33:01] Avina).
• Cartel Tactics & Social Embedding:
  • Cartel violence avoids targeting civilians when possible, to maintain social legitimacy and political power at the local level ([35:04] Avina).
• Risks for Sheinbaum:
  • Tightrope between asserting Mexican sovereignty and appeasing the US:
    • No “boots on the ground” from the US, but continues intelligence-sharing ([36:20] Avina).
    • The kingpin strategy merely fragments cartels, leading to short-term escalations and long-term instability.

Notable Quote:
"This will not be resolved... unless it is a transnational approach... the main driver of this violence in Mexico is the insatiable US demand for illicit drugs." — Alexander Avina ([33:01])

[CLIP: Mexico’s Defense Secretary]

• 80% of weapons seized from cartels are US-made ([38:21]).

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Trump’s State of the Union & The Democrats’ Dilemma

State of the Union Preview:

• Trump’s approval is at historic lows:
  • “Approval is now 32%. 68% say he hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems... The most negative reading… in either of his terms.” ([41:25] Seder)
• Key issues:
  • Trump will tout tariffs with misleading rhetoric; no direct benefits for ordinary Americans, only for corporations and speculators ([44:15] Seder, [46:46] Brian).
  • Economic indicators are flat or down, with inequality increasing (“K-shaped economy”).
• Democrats are planning dual responses:
  • Centrist CIA-alum Abigail Spanberger at Colonial Williamsburg as the official response; progressive Summer Lee representing the Progressive Caucus ([49:36] Seder).

Critique of Democratic Storytelling Strategy

Analysis (w/ Todd Stormer):

• The choice of Spanberger and Williamsburg signals a return-to-normalcy narrative—comforting “purple” suburban voters by emphasizing continuity rather than transformation ([52:38] Stormer).
  • "By putting her [Spanberger] in Colonial Williamsburg... That the system still works, that the patriotic story is still valid, that we don't need to burn it down or rethink it, we just need to restore it… it's like saying, vote for us and we'll make it 2016 or 2008 again… and that's just a fantasy." — Todd Stormer ([52:38])
• The restoration/normalcy strategy is contrasted with possible alternative responses:
  • Examples: Ilhan Omar in Minneapolis (real-time battleground), Mamdani at the NYC Tenement Museum (immigrant progress narrative), or the mayor of Philadelphia at a historic site acknowledging real historical struggles ([55:58]–[58:09]).

Democratic Party’s Strategic Blind Spots:

• The party continues to center privileged, moderate voices, ignoring surging energy among progressives and left coalitions.
• Focus groups show moderates are seen as the “status quo,” a losing message in the current environment ([66:10] Brian).
• There’s a marked disconnect between establishment messaging (restore the past) and the real dramatic stakes (fighting for justice, democracy, economic redistribution) ([64:00]–[65:54]).

Notable Exchanges:

• "There's a fine line between 'protect democracy' and 'protect the established order.'... The word democracy does not mean what they think it means to people. It just means more of whatever has been bad." — Seder ([61:05]–[62:07])
• "When they hear moderate, they hear status quo... and it's proven in Virginia [Spanberger's win] that it isn't about being too woke but about the status quo." — Brian ([66:10])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• ICE Whistleblower:
  "DHS told the public that new cadets receive all the training they need... This is a lie." — Ryan Schwenk ([09:06])
• Alexander Avina on Drug War:
  "The so-called war on drugs in Mexico is a global conflict... this will not be resolved... unless there is a transnational approach." — Avina ([33:01])
• Democratic Establishment Critique:
  "Present Spanberger as the future that returns us to the past… The calculation here is entirely about November… it's the adult in the room strategy." — Todd Stormer ([52:38])
• Sam Seder on Political Storytelling:
  "The real story is there are people fighting against masked thugs, or we are saving immigrants and building a new coalition... all of these stories have drama, have a protagonist and antagonist." ([64:00])
• Brian on Party Targeting:
  "They pretend that it was just the transphobia... but what that ad signified was: 'she's for they/them, the status quo, not for trans people.' I'm for you, the real issue is the status quo." ([66:10])

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Timestamps for Critical Segments

• ICE Whistleblower Testimony & Discussion: [09:06] – [21:02]
• Senator Mike Lee/Cartel Masks Tweet & Democrat Reactions: [19:18] – [20:28]
• Alexander Avina Interview: Mexican Drug War, US Pressure, Cartel Violence: [28:18] – [37:46]
• Mexico Defense Secretary Clip (US-sourced cartel weapons): [38:21]
• Trump’s State of the Union, Poll Numbers, Tariffs: [41:25] – [46:46]
• Democratic Response Strategy, Storytelling, Todd Stormer Analysis: [52:38] – [61:05]
• Political Storytelling & Critique of Nostalgia: [63:52] – [66:10]

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Tone & Style

• Irreverent yet incisive: The hosts blend sharp analysis with regular sarcasm, inside jokes, and banter (“Ominous lot to get to today”; “We can do this by appealing to an aesthetic and to a simpler time…”).
• Quotable, candid, and critical of both Republican and Democratic parties, especially regarding the emptiness of centrist narratives.

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For Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

• Illuminates the real-world dismantling of legal norms and oversight inside ICE, at a moment of peak political crisis and polarization.
• Provides transnational context for US-Mexico policies, clarifying why the war on drugs, cartel violence, and US domestic policy are inextricably linked.
• Sharp, accessible critique of political messaging and the echoes of “restoration” narratives vs. the energy and meaning of direct justice-driven organizing.

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If you missed the episode, this summary gives you the major revelations, arguments, and moments—plus the receipts (quotes + timestamps)—to join the conversation.

Transcript

[Sam Seder]

Hi folks. As you know, I just got back from vacation on vacation last week. Did I go out and go to a wine store to pick out a bunch of different wines for me to have apres ski and well, ultimately because of injuries, pre and apres ski and during ski or what would have been ski, really snowboarding. No, I didn't. But I did go on vacation with several bottles of great red wine. Where did I get it? Naked Wines. I'm a big fan of things like, like Sangiovese or a Syrah or Shiraz.

[Brian]

Their Syrah was very good.

[Sam Seder]

Yes, well, they have multiple ones. This podcast is sponsored by Naked Wines. Naked Wines is a wine club that directly connects you to the world's best winemakers. So you can get world class wine delivered straight to your door. If you use our code Majority for the code and the password@naked wines.com you will get $100 off your first order. That's 6 bottles of wine for just 39.99. Honestly had a couple of bottles over vacation. They're delish, they're fantastic. They're a great value. I've told you many times. My sister used to work for some Italian wine vineyards. So she's a bit of a wine snob. Not really a bit, but a quite a large wine snob and she approved. We had all of these at Thanksgiving. All sorts of. They have reds and whites. They have, I think they have like a rose and sparkling. But I'm more of a red guy. But I have friends who have love whites. We had a great Pinot Grigio and the, the key about Naked Wines is they cut out the middlemen. That is if you know anybody who's involved with wine sales. The markups are extraordinary. The Naked Wines brings you amazing wine straight from the winery at up to 60% less than you would pay in a store. Like I say, they cut out the extra costs. Like middleman markups, winemakers can basically sell almost directly to you through Naked Wines. Naked Wines has been around for over 15 years. They back over 90 independent winemakers around the globe to make the wine you love to drink. Get the best wine at the best price with Naked Wines. Now's the time to join Naked Wines community. Head to nakedwines.com Majority Click Enter Voucher. Put in our code Majority for both the code and the password. For a hundred dollars off your first order, that's six bottles of wine for only 39.99 with shipping included, that's $100 off your first six [e-mail] Majority use the code and password majority for six bottles of wine for 39.99. We'll put the link in the podcast and YouTube description now. Time for the show. It is Tuesday, February 24, 2026. My name is Sam Seder. This is the five time award winning Majority Report. We are broadcasting live steps from the industrially ravaged Gowanus Canal in the heartland of America, downtown Brooklyn, usa. On the program today, Alexander Avena, historian and associate professor at Arizona State University, contributing writer to the Foreign Exchange newsletter on the situation in Mexico. Meanwhile in this country, Trump to deliver the State of the Union tonight as his polling is at an all time low. DOJ removed Epstein files related to Trump sexually abusing minors. This story is just about breaking big now. Ex ICE whistleblower testifies that ICE lied to Congress among other horrible things. Trump still vacillating over an attack on Iran. Claims his top general says it'll be easy. Top general leaks that it won't. The first independent main Senate poll we've had in a while. UNH poll reports that Graham Platner up 64% to 26% over Mills. Also out polling Susan Collins. But we'll see about that. Trump regime takes next steps to dismantle the Department of Education. And the United states kills another three in a Caribbean boat strike that is now 137 people we've executed for boating. One in four people are behind on their student loans. And Jeanine Pirro gives up trying to prosecute Democratic lawmakers over their video. All this and more on today's Majority Report. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. Thanks so much for joining us.

[Brian]

News day Tuesday.

[Sam Seder]

News day Tuesday says Emma Viglin.

[Brian]

Hello. Hello.

[Sam Seder]

Hello, Brian. Flying solo on the board today.

[Emma Viglin]

Yeah, I had to restart the app. So if you're having problems with the app, it should be up and running now.

[Sam Seder]

Restart the app.

[Emma Viglin]

Start all our streams. And the app took a second to catch up to the restart, but it's working now. So just close it and reopen it and it will be working fine.

[Brian]

Well, my earpiece stopped working in the middle of head. Oh, it's back. Oh my God. And it's so loud. Okay, gotta turn it down. We're getting a new one. We're getting a new one, right? It's coming, coming in a few days.

[Sam Seder]

I mean, you know, we've, we've got to finance it, so.

[Brian]

Yes, right.

[Sam Seder]

We're doing approved talking to the bank for a business loan.

[Brian]

Four different installments on $30.

[Sam Seder]

Yeah, I mean we' we're working on it.

[Brian]

Okay, good.

[Sam Seder]

Emma was very, very nervous about bringing it up.

[Brian]

I don't like asking you to buy anything new because you give me crap about it every time.

[Sam Seder]

Oh, did you want a new one? Yeah. Well, it'll be new to you.

[Brian]

Maybe the duct tape, another four or five. We just need more duct tape and I'll figure it out.

[Sam Seder]

It'll be new to you. Okay, let's put it that way. Ominous lot to get to today. We're going to be doing a, a little bit of a State of the Union primer. And it, and it looks as of now, the way our coverage is going to go is basically going to be me in my apartment, maybe half drunk. Honestly, if his speech is longer than like 45 minutes, it's going to be a problem. I'm more interested in how the Democrats respond and we're going to talk about that later in the program. Yesterday, a former ICE agent who was apparently the whistleblower who exposed the internal memo wherein ICE was communicating to its operatives that it no longer had to abide by the Fourth Amendment and, and that they did not need judicial warrants to crash into people's homes. He is now a former ICE agent. He may have been at the time. His name is Ryan Schwenk. He was not in an official congressional hearing, but rather a hearing held by Congressional Democrats. I think they, they get the meeting rooms. They don't have subpoena power, I don't believe, because they don't, they're not in the majority. But this is also a preview of. In the event that the Democrats take the House in the fall, we're going to be seeing a lot more of this type of thing and they're going to be able to bring in witnesses who are going to be a little bit hostile. This one obviously wanted the opportunity to speak about what he saw at dhs. Here is clip number two.

[Ryan Schwenk]

Week ago so that I could speak to you today. I am here because I am duty bound to report the legally required training program at the ICE Academy is deficient, defective and broken. Five months ago, I was asked to teach the law to new cadets at the ICE Academy in Glynco, Georgia, where ICE is training its new inexperienced recruits. I volunteered those without law enforcement training. I volunteered to take on this assignment based on my experience in law enforcement oversight, including at the state and local level. Prior to my work with ice, on my first day, I received secretive orders to teach new cadets to violate the Constitution by entering homes without a judicial warrant. For the last five months I watched ICE dismantle the training program, cutting 240 hours of vital classes from a 584 hour program. Classes that teach the Constitution, our legal system, firearms training, the use of force, lawful arrests, proper detention and the limits of officers authority. For example, they ceased all of the legal instructions regarding use of force. This means that cadets are not taught what it means to be objectively reasonable. The very standard which the law requires them to meet when deciding whether or not to use deadly force. Our jobs as instructors are to teach them so well that they can make split second decisions about what they can and cannot do in life or death situations. Yet in the name of churning out an endless stream of officers, DHS leadership has dismantled the academic and practical tests that we need to know if cadets can safely and lawfully perform their job. All to satisfy an administration demanding they train thousands of new officers before the end of the year. DHS told the public that new cadets receive all the training they need to perform their duties. That no critical material or standards have been cut. This is a lie.

[Todd Stormer]

Lie.

[Sam Seder]

This is important to understand. First off, we should say that the two ICE murderers that have the most acclaim, we know less about the other people have been killed in ICE detention, but the two murders that have been caught on videotape, who work for ice, both of them are longtime ICE employees. So they are not part of this next wave who have not even received even the training that the first guys who used excessive force did. But people should understand this. The way that we had the, the torture scandal during the Iraq invasion and subsequent to that was not that these soldiers were ordered to torture, although in some instances they, they got explicit green lights. But essentially what happened was all the shackles were removed. All of the discipline, all of the, the explicit warnings against torture, all the explicit orders against torture were removed. That's all it takes. And then just pressured to get results. And that's exactly the dynamic that we're seeing here with ice. We're not going to give you any constraints other than we need X amount of arrests and we need X amount

[Brian]

of intimidation and X amount of officers to fill the large cordless that he's talking about. Because it's instructive to view ICE not as a law enforcement agency that needs to have a certain number of personnel to do what it needs to do, but as a paramilitary force that backs up the fascist administration and is a. Both. It's a going to serve as an intimidating tactic at polling sites. I think we should anticipate that ahead of November. But also as just, you know, a paramilitary force that can go onto the streets, brutalize citizens on behalf of the administration. What this, he was a former instructor down in Georgia, this guy, he testified there that he was one of the two whistleblowers that received, that came out and said that they'd received those administrative, the secret orders regarding the administrative warrants, meaning we've spoken about this before on the show, but they call them administrative warrants. They are not, they're not a warrant. It's essentially a memo that says you can violate people's Fourth amendment rights and go into their homes. Warrants have to be signed by judges. Even the ones that are like, you know, basically rubber stamped like FISA under the war on terror, at least that had to be signed by a judge. That's, that's, it's not a warrant. They call it a warrant. It's not a warrant. And it just said, hey, you can enter private homes and violate the fourth Amendment regardless. And made it so that those orders were only verbal, so there was no paper trail. I mean, they're obvious about how criminal this is. And then he mentioned there that basically ice eliminated, eliminated 240 hours from their mandatory 580 hour training program and they specifically removed courses dealing with the use of force. So, and this is for the new recruits that we know they're calling from essentially Proud Boys and Patriot front and all of the biggest MAGA supporters that are excited to sign up for ice. Those are the people that receive the least amount of training. And to your most important point about this, the. The veterans of DHS and ICE still killed American citizens on our streets on video in front of everybody. So this isn't, should not be used to bolster the Cory Booker arguments in the DHS funding fight about more training and more body cameras. This should just underscore how horrible this new crop of ICE agents is going to be and what's coming ahead of us.

[Sam Seder]

It also shows what the intention to use these. I mean, a lot of people wondered like, you know, why would you go to Minneapolis in the dead of winter? And you know, obviously there was a compulsion to go there because you had a, you have a large Somali population. Donald Trump was really jazzed up about his racism was in high gear in terms of Ilhan Omar. Chris Ruffo, the CRT guy, the big Republican operative, had already started to seed the story of Al Shabaab, a terrorist organization tied in with the Medicare fraud story, et cetera, et cetera. So there's a lot of things there. But as A. But from a. Almost like a military perspective, invading the coldest region of the country at the coldest time of the year does not make a lot of sense unless you want to make the deployments that everyone else is going to have come. The summer seem a lot easier. And so, you know, summer is. They are aiming for the months from, like, May or June through the election. That is what's going on here. And so understand the lack of training is not because they're in a hurry. The lack of training is because they don't want these people to have constraints or any type of discipline that might come with training. So that's all deliberate. Meanwhile, one of the things, and we're going to be talking in a moment to Alexandra Avina about the. The historical context of what we're seeing in Mexico and what we're seeing go on right now after the killing of El Mencho, who was one of, if not, I think, Mexico's most wanted man. And what we're seeing across large swaths of Mexico in terms of the Jalisco cartel striking back, one of the things we've seen from the right is them saying, like, this is what DHS is doing. It's keeping this element out of the country, which, of course is absurd because we have seen ICE in action. And unless this cartel in Jalisco is made up of moms and dads and teenage kids or people who are working on roofs or, you know, trying to get day job, whatever it is, or American citizens for that matter, it's obviously not the same people. But they are so desperate to make this connection. Here is Senator Mike Lee. Let's just see Mike Lee's tweet first. If you can just zoom in on that one. What's that? It's in all of them. But I want to just focus on his tweet first where he writes. Okay, here it is. Mike Lee shows a picture of some Jalisco cartel wearing masks at a gas station, pouring gas on the ground. And then they ultimately light it. I've seen this video. It's pretty disturbing. But Mike Lee writes cartel hitmen wear masks. Leftists aren't complaining.

[Brian]

Now, that's not the point I think you want to make, buddy.

[Sam Seder]

Well, and it's. It's not the point he wanted to make. And many senators not known for their. Their crap posting were able to dunk on Mike Lee. But this shows, like, how this is, Senator. It shows how twisted their mentality is. But put up this. Let's do the series of it. Brian Schatz wrote in Mike, I would like ICE to have the same standards as a local police department, not cartel hitmen.

[Brian]

I mean, to be fair to Shatz, he might be the best Senate poster of all of the Democrats. So he got him here up against base Mike Lee.

[Sam Seder]

But even.

[Brian]

Even Chris Murphy. Yes.

[Sam Seder]

Oh, dear Mike, I literally couldn't make our argument better than you do. The bad guys wear masks, the good guys don't. Here's the big one. And.

[Brian]

Oh, buddy, retire Mike Lee.

[Sam Seder]

Yes. Cartel hitmen wear masks. That's why ICE shouldn't. Nailed it. Nailed it. Nailed it. Says Chuck Schumer.

[Brian]

Oh, that's literally like getting knocked out by the smallest kid on the playground. You've got to change schools.

[Sam Seder]

But even in that tweet, like, that's why I shouldn't. So maybe you guys should suggest. Yes. Like, I feel I'm uncomfortable with them wearing to tell you how to live. It's like, even in that moment, it's

[Brian]

a pull your pants up and take your mask off.

[Emma Viglin]

Softness to it.

[Brian]

Yeah, we. We got to go. Go to break.

[Sam Seder]

Yes.

[Brian]

Yes.

[Alexander Avenia]

Sorry.

[Sam Seder]

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[Brian]

It's okay.

[Sam Seder]

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We have seen across Jalisco, I mispronounced it before, which is typical of the way I do things. We have seen a lot of explosions, a lot of attacks, buildings set on fire. Give us just some background that historically speaking that has taken us to this moment where we are watching Sheinbaum respond to what appears to be US Pressure that comes in a couple of different forms. Just give us that historical context.

[Alexander Avenia]

Yeah, thanks for having me on again. I think the immediate context about three, four, maybe even five years of the GOP making threats about invading Mexico or doing unilateral military interventions in Mexico against the so called cartels. Trump, once Trump won, he made those pressure tactics even more explicit. He has this weird thing where he likes President Claudio Shane Bond, like, he speaks pretty well of her, but then he'll say things like, well, the cartels run Mexico and she's too scared to confront them. And then in the context of what just happened in Venezuela at the end of last year with the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro, using the specter of narco terrorism to justify that illegal action. I think all of these things are being taken into account by the current Mexican government, and that probably had some sort of influence or factor in the decision to go after the head of the Jalisco cartel on Sunday, also known as El Mencho. The violence that we saw on Sunday, that's pretty much a narco script that we've seen the last 15, 20 years. When a big leader is either captured or killed, his gunslingers will go out and provoke chaos, you know, as a projection of violence, as a projection of force, to perhaps their audience be not just Mexican citizens, but other rival drug trafficking organizations that may want to move during a moment that they sense of weakness. The unprecedented scale of it, though, was that it happened in 15 states. We had something like more than 250. They call them narcoloquos, like where they block roads, entrances to towns and cities by burning, by lighting vehicles on fire. I think 25 National Guard soldiers were killed, less in the military operation to take out El Mencho, but more in trying to put down the narco bloqueos in the state of Jalisco. So today things seem to have calmed down. But in places like Jalisco and Michoacan in the state of Guerrero, they've. They closed schools yesterday statewide. I don't know if they've reopened them today. So those tactics we've seen before, but the scale of it was, I mean, I think does show the. The type of power that the Jalisco cartel can. Can wield.

[Brian]

Well, it also shows the power, I would say, of the Mexican state. Right. And I think that was also part of the. The calculus here. If you could just explain how Morena Amlo's party, Claudia Sheinbaum's predecessor, and then Sheinbaum herself, how that party maybe has embraced some more nationalism than maybe us leftist groups or movements would understand, and how showing this kind of force against the cartels is a way to perhaps in Sheinbaum's mind, stave off calls for US intervention and show we can handle this ourselves only with information sharing from the United States.

[Alexander Avenia]

Yeah, a large reason why Morena as a party won landslide Electoral victories in 2018 with Lopez Obrador. 2024 with Claudia Scheinbaum is a popular reaction against the latest war on drugs of the Mexican government under then Felipe Calderon. Started in 2006, which has led to like more than 300,000 homicides. Right now I think it's an estimated 130 enforced disappearances. So part of the reason why Amlo Lopez Obrador even won in 2018 was to say we're going to try a different approach to the issue of drug traffick trafficking and drug trafficking organizations. And he coined this, I think at this point it's a rather unfortunate terms, abrazos Nova Lazo. So hugs not bullets. But once he got into office that did not, that remained at the discursive level. It was not implemented really in the form of policies other than some of the social welfare policies that Morena has implemented, which have reduced levels of extreme inequality and raise minimum wages since 2018. But there's this weird dynamic where in the mind of the Mexican political opposition and in many American politicians, the idea that just because Amlo said we're going to try this hugs not bullets approach, they think that the actually was implemented when in reality we still see a mostly militarized approach to the interdiction of drugs as opposed to looking at the deeper structural roots. And to do that you would have to go to the US because the main driver of this violence in Mexico is the insatiable US demand for illicit drugs. For we're that 5% of the world's population and we consume more than 80% of licit and illicit drugs globally. There's, that's a huge imbalance that we should probably think about why that exists as opposed to just focusing on launching a war on drugs against and our guns in Mexico. And that's the other aspect, right?

[Ryan Schwenk]

Yes.

[Alexander Avenia]

The other aspect is as the Secretary of Defense said in the press conference yesterday morning, that at least 80% of the weapons that the Jalisco cartel use or uses come from the United States. 25,000 weapons from 2006 to 2018 came from Israel. So this is in many sense this, the so called war on drugs in Mexico is a global conflict and this will not be resolved. Shane Bomb and Lopez Obrador can institute the most progressive radical left wing approaches to drugs and drug interdiction. But if there's, if this is not a transnational approach, then it's not going to work. And this is what we see, this is part of the reason why we see so much death in parts of Mexico that don't get a lot of attention media wise until Something like Sunday happens.

[Sam Seder]

I want to just go back in terms of, like, the Jalisco Cartel's response. 25 National Guardsmen killed. But as far as I can tell from the reporting, no civilians killed. What. What a. If you know, differently, I, you know, correct me on that. But if not, that seems to be rather deliberate. And if so, why?

[Alexander Avenia]

That's a, That's a really good question. I've seen estimates between 60 and 70 fatalities total, including the National Guards, fighters, the, the narcos, and even some civilians, mostly in the state of Jalisco, and dozens of injuries. So we do have instances of civilians getting caught in the crossfire and being killed or hurt especially, but they don't

[Sam Seder]

seem to be targeted. They don't. I mean, I'm not minimizing these civilian deaths. I'm not minimizing any of these deaths. But I mean, as a, as a strategy, it seems like, you know, the Jalisco cartel is, you know, they're lighting places on fire, but it seems like they are, at the very least, consciously not lighting places on fire that are full of civilians. That there is also a sort of almost like a public relations element to this.

[Alexander Avenia]

There is, I think that's, that's partly, that partly explains it. The other part is, again, most of these things in the past have happened when a leader is captured. So the tactic there is to prevent the circulation of vehicles. Right. So if you can start lighting buses and cars on fire and putting them on roads and streets, the idea is that you prevent the Mexican military or security apparatuses from getting the capture narco out the incident. In this case, though, they, they, they killed El Mencho during the operation or at least fatally wounded him, and he died somehow during the transportation to Mexico City, based on the reporting that you choose. But, yeah, they're not going to. They're not going to. You know, these drug trafficking organizations are embedded in the social fabric in these different provinces and localities. Part of the reasons why they survive is because they've been able to establish themselves as a political, social and economic force at the local level. Right. So by just indiscriminately firing upon civilians would kind of undermine their own social position within, within some of these geographies in Mexico, particularly in rural Mexico.

[Sam Seder]

One final question. And in terms of, like, where are the dangers for Sheinbaum in terms of looking like she is responding too much to the United States?

[Alexander Avenia]

I mean, that's the, that's the trick of asserting Mexican sovereignty when you live next to the United States for, like, the past 200 years. I mean, this is, this is an ongoing challenge that Shane Bomb and every single one of her predecessors has faced. So I think right now there's very clear limits. So they were, they were clear about saying that the US Intelligence helped in the operation. But one limit right now it seems to be there's no, at least publicly, there's no US Boots on the ground in helping these operations. So I think that's one red line that the Shane Bomb administration has come down on in terms of again, trying to calibrate their, their protection of sovereignty vis a vis the United States. But if they keep. But again, but in the end, this is a symbolic political victory because as we know, this is not going to put a dent into the flow of illicit drugs into the United States. It's not going to put a dent into the flow of military grade US Weaponry down into Mexico. We've been through this before and the kingpin strategy is a disastrous policy. And in the short term, we'll probably see fragmentation and intensified levels of violence at the local level in Mexico, which may not even find its way into mainstream reporting. I mean, Sunday, the fact that they attacked Puerto Vallarta made it a big deal. The fact that they were attacking, you know, lighting cars on fire in the parking lot of a Costco apparently made, made it a thing online. But what worries me is that in the aftermath of El Mencho's death, that there's going to be fragmentation within this cartel and that'll manifest itself in the form of violence against local communities in the countryside.

[Sam Seder]

Alexander Avenia, thank you so much for your time today. Really appreciate it.

[Alexander Avenia]

Thank you guys.

[Brian]

Thanks so much.

[Sam Seder]

All right, folks, we're gonna, I think we also have, let's, oh, we can, let's, let's play this clip here. This is number four. It is Mexico's defense secretary making the argument that 80% of the weapons seized from cartels are of U.S. origin.

[Brian]

I'll read over these captions here. It has already been mentioned speaking of the strategy, general beginning of the administration, 23,000 weapons of been seized, 23,000 weapons, 80% are of US war. So in this case the proportion is roughly the same.

[Sam Seder]

Correct.

[Brian]

Referring to the weapons seized in that raid. It appears so. That's just the quote that we were referencing there. And a good, you know, it like the Sheinbaum is in a difficult position here. 1 I think because the violence of these cartels and the kidnappings that happens in Mexico is a real thing and they are very well armed because of the United States because of COVID action by the United States and Israel too, covert action and deals with some of these groups that we know that the US has engaged in all across the world, selling arms to groups that eventually commit terror attacks against Americans and

[Sam Seder]

it

[Brian]

creating extremist groups, but also just the infrastructure of the war on drugs, creating a black market for these cartels. And primarily, even though the Trump administration is constantly talking about narco terrorism, yes, the consumption of drugs here has resulted in many overdose deaths, even though fentanyl overdose deaths are on the decline. But the blowback is primarily felt by the people of Mexico and other folks south of the United States where these heavily armed by the US And Israel groups that are that crop up because of the black market created by our war on drugs inflict pain, kidnappings, killings all across their communities. And so like it is a security issue for Sheinbaum there in that sense. And her, she has in part due to the increased militarization from the United States, has adjusted her approach from her predecessor to being more of a nationalist, more militaristic against the cartels. Because Alexander talks about a little bit apparently, like, you know, there, there was an increase in violence recently on this front. So that's what this was in, in response to. And it's just a very different like, you know, you might see right wingers championing the fact that Sheinbaum is so popular and chose to act this aggressively and say like, oh, this is why this should be incorporated into our policies here when in reality this is blowback from us tough on crime policies.

[Sam Seder]

All right, let's turn. Just got a couple of minutes. Tonight, Donald Trump will be addressing the country. It's unclear how many Democrats are going to avoid the State of the Union tonight, but CNN and I just sent you a link to that. Brian, did a poll replay Donald Trump's approval rating? His approval is now 32% of Americans now say that Trump has the has had the right priorities. 68% says he hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems. As the president's most negative reading on that question to date either in either of his terms in office. At the Same time, Americans 61 to 38% say that Trump's policies will move the country in the wrong direction rather than the right one. Trump's job approval rating among all adults is at 36%. On top of which polling from G. Elliot Morris at the Strength in Numbers Verisite poll shows that Trump approval rating falls to a new low of 37%. So look this is not. We can't say for certain. Is it 36? Is it 36 and a half? The point is, he is extremely unpopular

[Brian]

and this chart is pretty good. Do we want to put this up for a sec? I mean, I like these visuals because it can help you see the net percentage change he's not gained with any group. I mean, I guess that's to be expected when you're in power, but -12 since this time last year with all adults. But lost ground with some of his stronger groups. Men. Yeah. Gosh, Anybody under the age of 50, massive swings.

[Sam Seder]

Sorry, guys.

[Brian]

Yeah. 65 and older still okay with him. I wonder why, when he goes out on the podium and is like, I want to make sure you're. How you don't lose any, any money on your homes that have exponentially increased in value. And screw anybody under 50 if they want to buy a home.

[Sam Seder]

Well, there's also data out, and I'm trying to think where I had that. That shows that a huge portion of our economy is driven by people who are over the age of 50. Right now. It's a problem because, of course, as

[Brian]

you find that check. Or did you find it?

[Sam Seder]

No. Okay, I have my stack of stuff, but so Donald Trump is going to get out there tonight and he is very likely to talk about all the great things that are going to come from tariffs. The new tariffs, not the old tariffs. We're going to end up having to give that money to financiers who purchased essentially the tariff refund rights. Some corporations will get it back. But here's what I will guarantee you. There will be no $2,000 rebate checks from the federal government. There will be no rebate checks from FedEx, who's now suing the government to get their, their tariff money back. There's not going to be any rebates from whatever it is that you paid extra for tariffs, the hundreds of billions of dollars in which Americans paid extra. None of that's coming back to you. We're going to see this whole tariff rebate thing, to the extent that it ever gets worked out, is just going to increase wealth inequality. It's. I mean, it is. It is literally, and this is part of the problem that we have largely in society, is that every government, and I say this only for the conservatives and the libertarians who are listening to the program and never seem to call in anymore. Every government picks winners and losers. Every government redistributes wealth. The question is, who are going to be the winners? Who are going to be the losers. And in which direction does the redistribution happen? New York State, New York City pays more money in taxes than it gets back from New York State. In this country, the money is redistributed to the wealthy. That's just simply the flow of what government does. And that is a problem. And there couldn't be a more naked example of this than tariffs, taxes paid by consumers and then rebated to the corporations.

[Brian]

I mean, that stole Americans money because the Trump administration wanted to violate the state spirit of the law and wanted to implement his tariffs in the way that he saw fit and wield maximum power. So he stole billions and billions of dollars from American consumers. And corporations are, if they're successful in their suits, about to keep that money. And the people that will get really rich are the clients of Cantor Fitzgerald who were a part of purchasing basically the bets against these tariffs.

[Sam Seder]

And so this is the dynamic now. What Trump is going to say tonight is he's going to try and talk about the, the economy in some way. I don't know how he could have any credibility left. It's been a year and a half and he's done nothing. Manufacturing numbers are down. Our GDP is basically where it was during Biden. Our employment numbers are actually weaker than they were in the final year of Biden. Inflation more or less at the same as it was in Biden. It's cooled off just a little bit and it, you know, remains to be seen. Again, we have this gap between jobs and gdp, although the last GDP numbers were pretty bad. And we're going to see what catches up. But in the meantime, the problem that people have, and tomorrow we're going to be talking about my console about this, the cost of goods that are staples, that are necessities is still too high relative to people's purchasing power. We have a K shaped economy where the wealthy are driving consumer spending, the wealthy are accruing, getting the value of all the increase in values of like home ownership, et cetera, et cetera. We literally do have those two Americas that old John Edwards talked about and others in the past. And so it's going to be interesting to see how he addresses that. And also if he even talks about ice, if he talks about, I mean, he will, I find it hard for him not to be like transgender everybody. We're no longer transgendering everybody.

[Brian]

He'll do that, but he's just gonna lie. He'll lie his way through immigration. He'll say we're taking the criminals out. He'll lie his way through the economy stuff. And they'll talk about the Dow, the Dow which has dipped below 50,000. I don't know if anybody's told Pam Bondi might break her heart. But yeah, he'll just lie because he only knows one move at this point, which is to counter message with a bunch of bs.

[Sam Seder]

It's gonna be interesting to see if he, if he avoids that. The. Granted, it'll be only marginally interesting. And the problem in terms of the coverage tonight is that I want to be drunkest for Trump, but I'm most interested in the two Democratic responses that we're going to see, or at least two, the Progressive Caucus Summer Lee is going to be addressing. And I'm very curious to see what she has to say. A really great congressperson, the Tim Duncan

[Brian]

of the Progressives, Matt once called her. And I think it's a great, it's a great fundamentals. Kind of goes about her business quietly and is always on point.

[Sam Seder]

Yep. The Democrats, it's really Chuck Schumer. You recall last year, Chuck Schumer had Elise Slotkin on because she was the rising star of the party at this time last year that didn't go so well. That project. They really tried. They really tried. Remember, like, there was this, like, rash of articles where she was going around and saying, like, she's the future, she's the future, and we need to get back to basics CIA stuff.

[Brian]

And, and what a coincidence. The future, according to Chuck Schumer is his exact politics, but with someone who's 30 years younger.

[Sam Seder]

Exactly. And this year they have done basically the same thing. A listener sent this video or a link to this video. This guy's on our list. Todd Stormer, I think is his name. He has written a book that's going to come out in June on, on the Resistance. And you know, some people are allergic to that word, but it's not the resistance as you know it, like historically, like actual resistance. And he breaks down the choice of Abigail Spanberger and the location, which is at Colonial Williamsburg. And here, I think this clip, if I remember correctly, this is where he's like going over some of those. That choice relative to last year. I'll expand on what he says because it really is fascinating. He goes over the potential other, other scenarios that Democrats could have chosen, but the Democratic establishment, it's Chuck Schumer went with the Chuck Schumer?

[Brian]

Yes. Wait, wasn't she also CIA? Spamberger?

[Sam Seder]

Oh, they're, they're good friends.

[Brian]

Wait, hold on. They're doing two in A row CIA, like deep state people.

[Sam Seder]

Oh, no, I think you have to.

[Brian]

Oh, right.

[Sam Seder]

I think. I think you have to.

[Brian]

I think.

[Sam Seder]

I think that's the rule.

[Brian]

That's the rule.

[Sam Seder]

Yeah. You're going to do CIA. Former CIA agents get to do two in a row. So neither one sticks out as being too CIA. Ish.

[Emma Viglin]

Right. Hiding in plain sight.

[Brian]

Oh, my God.

[Sam Seder]

But here is Stormer

[Todd Stormer]

Span partner, and they chose Colonial Williamsburg. And this isn't the first time. Last year, the Democrats picked Alyssa Slotkin to deliver the response to Trump's first address to Congress. Also a centrist, also a former CIA officer, Spanberger and Slotkin are actually friends. They went to Congress together in 2018. They shared an apartment on Capitol Hill. They're cut from the same cloth. So it's not a one time calculation. The Democrats have now chosen this type twice in a row. That's a pattern, not coincidence. Tells you something about what the party's leadership thinks the opposition to Trump should look like. What they look like now. Spanberger deserves all kinds of props. Hell, she's the first female governor of Virginia in its history and I'm a historian of this stuff, and that's a big deal. She checks the credential box too, and she's safe. The calculation here is entirely about November. We're eight months away from the midterms. The strategy isn't to incite a movement or to frame a revolution. It's to comfort purple voters. Forget about you folks on the left. It's the adult in the room strategy. A former CIA officer talking about affordability and norms doesn't scare the suburban voter, the mythical middle folks. But it does go deeper than just votes. By putting her in Colonial Williamsburg and making a specific argument about the country. That the system still works, that the patriotic story is still valid, that institutions still produce progress, that we don't need to burn it down or rethink it, we just need to restore it. Present Spanberger as the future that returns us to the past. It's like saying, vote for us and we'll make it 2016 or 2008 again. Which is appealing to a lot of people. They're tired. The chaos of the last few years. The idea of just going back to something that feels normal is seductive to many, especially to white people. And that's just a fantasy. Which brings us to the backdrop. Fantasy and Colonial Williamsburg seem to have a tendency of going together in those ends. So the timing's not accidental, right? It's America's 250th, you've heard that all over the place.

[Sam Seder]

Okay. He goes on, I mean, both parties. And just to paraphrase, he makes the argument that, like, yes, it is a fantasy. And we're returning to now, he doesn't critique necessarily the strategy as much as I will. He's not necessarily in favor of it.

[Brian]

He's just analyzing accurate analysis. Yeah.

[Sam Seder]

But the fact is, is that first off, we're at a midterm. The idea that the biggest gains can be made from turning former Republican voters into Democratic voters, I think is absurd. The biggest gains are going to be in getting Democratic voters who vote in on your elections to go out and vote more. The biggest gains are going to be from Republican voters just staying at home because they're just disgusted by this. Now, Stormer gives four other examples of what the Democrats could have chosen to run, which I think is really helpful. And, and they're, I don't want to say they're extreme examples, but, but, but he, he really draws them. In contrast, one would be Minneapolis. Instead of having it at Colonial Williamsburg, which is a fantasy, incidentally, that was, it was a town that was built in 1920.

[Brian]

So there's so many other patriotic sites in Virginia. Okay.

[Sam Seder]

But, but, but the point is it is a, like, it's almost like a Disney vacation.

[Ryan Schwenk]

Yeah.

[Sam Seder]

Of like what, like, you know, of sense, sentimentality. We're going to go back to this era that was always a fantasy in the first place.

[Brian]

Remember your class trip?

[Sam Seder]

You could have it at Minneapolis where, I mean, everybody knows what's gone on there, where it is a sign of both the strength of the people in Minneapolis and fighting against the worst parts of the Trump regime. You could have had Ilhan Omar, who was attacked herself, deliver this. Now, of course, Chuck Schumer would never allow this to happen, but it does give you, it's just an illustration as to how it could be different. You could have somebody else from Minnesota deliver the speech. You could theoretically have Abigail Spanberger go to Minneapolis. Now, she's not really part of that fight, but. Or you could have had Mamdani give the speech from a tenement museum in New York City saying, we're here about talking about progress.

[Brian]

You know, go to the Statue of Liberty. Go to the Statue of Liberty and

[Sam Seder]

talk about nation of immigrants, different vision of what America is than what Donald Trump has and heighten the contrast. Heighten the contrast. Or you could have had the mayor of Philadelphia deliver the speech from George Washington's former home where Donald Trump tried to tear down, ordered the National Parks Service to take down the plaque about slaves being there and was ordered to replace it, bring it back by a federal judge. She could have been there to tie in sort of like this moment as a reconstruction. Or he said you could have had aoc, you know, from like a foreign policy place where she could have done

[Brian]

it from the Statue of Liberty as someone from New York, nation of immigrants, what have you.

[Sam Seder]

But he's just trying to sort of show the different ways where you could send a message internationally, like in Munich to, to say that there is a rise of authoritarianism. He just gives these illustrations to highlight the specific choice that Chuck Schumer made. And we talked about this yesterday, how during the 2016 election and to some extent in the 2024 election, Democrats really tried to, to finesse their constituency in such a way that it involved like, you know, Republican ish people and not working class Republicans, suburban Republicans, more white collar Republicans. And this has been a losing strategy for Democrats for an extended period of time. Really if you look at like, you know, Congress, if you look at states, et cetera, et cetera, that strategy has failed. We look at what has driven Donald Trump down in the polls and

[Brian]

a

[Sam Seder]

notion of like, of wanting calm and whatnot is, is an element to it. But you're not addressing the underlying thing. This is about in, you know, in Stormer's words, you know, sort of a restoration instead of a reconstruction. But we know restoration cannot happen. Joe Biden was the restoration candidate and he was thrown out.

[Brian]

And Kamala Harris ran on a semi restoration style campaign, including talking about democracy on the ballot, which is exactly what you're saying, which is our system is under threat by Donald Trump. And don't you want to preserve the system? And you know what the voters said about the system, system screwed us over. They said we would prefer fascism to the system. That is how badly the, our so called democracy in this country is broken and how shut out people are from active participation in that democracy, which includes the inability for any Democratic voters to weigh in on who the 2024 nominee to be until Kamala Harris was kind of thrust into it last minute. It includes the Democratic Party shutting out voters from and their desire to change course on the genocide in Gaza. It's a complete, I don't know, they're trying to do it with brute force again, the same strategy, the same people they're targeting. Because by the way, consultants get really rich when you micro target wealthier suburbanites. But if you have a turnout based operation that's involving volunteers and door knocking and people power that is a threat to the institution and the money that's behind the Democratic Party.

[Sam Seder]

Absolutely. I mean, from the consultant's perspective, when you're a hammer, everything is a nail. But in their instance, they're the, the things that are nail are media buys because they get their exact percent Vic. But if you think about like, you know, there's a fine line between protect democracy and protect the established order. And when, when Harris went around with Liz Cheney, they would say we're protecting democracy, but they were showing we're protecting the established order. Look at, here are the, here the two parties still exist and they are still fundamentally who they were. And we have joined together to fight

[Brian]

the insurgent and they had a credibility problem on the word democracy. Even so, though, I mean, Stephen.

[Sam Seder]

But the point is the word democracy does not mean, yes. What they think it means to people. It just means more of whatever has been bad.

[Brian]

But, but the reason it also doesn't mean that is because they would have had to demonstrate it to show that they are democratic, democratically responsive in the four years prior to this election or in the very least in the, in the two years.

[Sam Seder]

You mean in terms of like Biden,

[Brian]

Biden and the genocide?

[Sam Seder]

Yes.

[Brian]

I mean, like, like you. Democracy isn't just like a. In who are we making fun of? Andrew Schultz talking about the Constitution should have prevented Trump from doing all of this. Remember, he was making that argument as if the Constitution was a brick wall and not something that can be violated. And like, doesn't. It doesn't have like inherent guardrails in it. It feels like the same sort of argument here where it's like democracy as an ethic with outside of like any action to preserve it, really. From the Biden administration side, which included, I didn't even point to this Merrick Garland not prosecuting the coup attempters and the, the anti democratic forces within the fascist Republican Party. They didn't enforce democracy from a law enforcement perspective and they didn't practice it internally within their own party. And they sure, if as hell did not practice it with the American public as they committed genocide.

[Sam Seder]

Ta Nehisi Coates made the argument is if you're not going to stand up against the genocide, how are you going to stand up against, you know, anti democratic forces?

[Brian]

Well, that's more poetic than what I'm saying, but it's not even just like the ethic that he's talking about here. It's quite, quite literally, like it was not in their interest not to listen to the public. They don't have the money on their side in the same way the Republicans do. You. The Democrats cannot narrow their coalition any further because without people power, this is where we are. We're at.

[Sam Seder]

It's all consolidating on the right and the imagery of. By just simply looking back on nostalgia. If Colonial Williamsburg, as opposed to taking you right to where the fight is, one is sort of like, we can. We can do this by appealing to an esthetic and to a simpler time. And the other. The other vision for what your response to the State of the Union could be is here is where the fight is. This is what's happening right now. And we're gonna address this. Not a general aesthetic or feeling, but rather. And look, everybody says you need to tell a story. There is. What is the story of Colonial Williamsburg. It's like, when it's all in the past, it is not in the moment. There is no drama. It is a bad story. The real story is there are people here fighting against masked thugs. Or we are fighting against the misinformation that in the revising of history that is taking place in Philadelphia. Or we are saving immigrants and building a new coalition. Like all of these other stories are dramatic and have drama and have a protagonist and antagonist. Antagonist.

[Brian]

Not everyone would agree that you need to have an antagonist and tell a story.

[Sam Seder]

What's that?

[Brian]

Ezra Klein literally said that to you in your debate.

[Sam Seder]

Oh, yes.

[Brian]

I mean, but that's the wing of the party that he represents. He said that a story doesn't have to have villains. A political story.

[Sam Seder]

Right.

[Brian]

Which is like. I don't want to say what. I mean. I don't even. That's like literally the opposite of what politics is.

[Sam Seder]

I mean, to be fair to Ezra, you know, I am a. I have a professional history in writing dramatic and comedic strips.

[Brian]

Yeah.

[Sam Seder]

Know how to, like the things you need to for a story.

[Brian]

The other things I just want to make sure, like, we hit on from. Because that was a really good analysis of it. The comforting purple voters thing. We showed that focus group result from the New York Times yesterday. We're now the. Like, whatever a purple voter is. Okay. Let's refer to them as independents, because that's the. That's the growing political constituency in this country. People are more frequently identifying as independent. And when you talk to them, when they hear moderate, they hear status quo. That's what the focus group said. Now, we're going to need more data on that to be completely determinative on it. But I think, you know, we, like, you can make an assessment. And that's what we're doing. That's how it's coded. And it's continued to code in that way. And the results made it clear in 2024. They pretend that that one ad about Kamala Harris, she's for they them, I'm for you. Proves that it was just the transphobia. We'll get to Gavin Newsom later in the show. But, like, what that ad signified was she's for they them the status quo, not trans people. And I'm for you, they get that ad wrong. And that was proven in Virginia with Spanberger, because a year later, the Republican ran against Spanberger in that race on explicit transphobia, and Spanberger won historically in Virginia against that Republican. So it wasn't about being too woke. It was about the status quo element and leaning into the strategy that's. That's losing. And the other thing about Spamberger that's so annoying about her being selected beyond it being two CIA people in a row. Let's go for three in a row, next year. Is the fact that they are trying to brute force her victory into as significant as something as Zoran Mandani's when her situation could not have been more perfect. One, they ran on the idiotic transphobic strategy that I just laid out. The data would tell you that, one, Trump the election. It's not what happened to the. That there were a bunch of federal workers fired in her state by Trump himself that were extremely motivated to vote against him. And three, Zoran's election was a tide that lifted all boats across the country. And they don't want to. They don't want to acknowledge the affordability. Exactly. They stole that from him. And then they pretend like, oh, there's enthusiasm for these moderate CIA people. In the same way, across the river in Union City, you saw, like, this huge turnaround with young voters in New Jersey voting for progressive in that city. I don't think that that was like, you know, because people were just as enthusiastic about, like, every single Democrat. That's people who live in Jersey just miles away from the city, saying, like, let me check in. I'm inspired by this guy and his campaign in Manhattan, in New York City. I'm gonna. I'm gonna look into my local candidate. And I think that that happened across the country. So long rant. But, you know, but that's just the preview.

[Sam Seder]

Maybe it'll be very different. Maybe Spanberger will secretly go to. Instead of evoking a mythical founding town.

[Brian]

Oh, my God. Yes.

[Sam Seder]

And A. A time that was better Not. Not the time, of course, when there were slaves. When. When George Washington had to keep. He had George Washington maintain his slaves had to, like, leave the state for. For. I think for. For six. For a certain period of time. Like, every. Like, you had to re up the visa because I think you could only own slaves for a certain period. I can't remember exactly the story.

[Brian]

It's like living in Florida for six months in a day.

[Sam Seder]

Exactly.

[Brian]

Slaves.

[Sam Seder]

Exactly. Forget about that part. And it's not about the tricolor hats, cornered hats. It's really about just the feeling of, like, we could go back to that with electricity. But tonight we'll be watching that. And I mean, I should be. That's. That's.

[Brian]

I'll watch it.

[Sam Seder]

Well, I'm. I'm gonna be streaming.

[Brian]

Okay.

[Sam Seder]

Presumably.

[Brian]

Maybe I'll join you.

[Sam Seder]

Presumably at home. I have to figure out if.

[Brian]

If we can.

[Sam Seder]

If I know how to do that,

[Emma Viglin]

I'll be busy churning butter out of nostalgia.

[Sam Seder]

Maybe we can get on Zoom together, but I don't know how that would work, but maybe it would. I don't know. We'll figure it out. All right, folks, gonna head into the fun half of the program. Just a reminder, it's your support that makes the show possible and not just your membership. Although that. That definitely helps. But when you send a video of ours to your dad or your mom or your uncle, your aunt or your brother or your sister or your kid or your friend, that helps grow the show. When you give us a review on. Does itunes still exist? Apple Music, whatever platform. Give us a review.

[Brian]

Give us a.

[Sam Seder]

Like, if you're on Twitch, you can dedicate your subscription to us for the month. If you're a prime member, you know you're already paying for it. Do the poggers thing. Get a. You know, don't make me call for a hype train. And if you're on Rumble, you can.

[Brian]

Don't make me.

[Sam Seder]

You're on Rumble. You can go ask your friends to call in and harass us or. And I'm talking to all five of you on Rumble. If you're on Rumble, chances are you are a bot and you're inflating our numbers. If you're there,

[Emma Viglin]

you nailed it. It's literally five viewers right now.

[Sam Seder]

Thank you, guys. Really appreciate it. We do this for you. Join the majorityreport.com join themjorityreport.com. you can support the show that way as well. And of course, just coffee, co op, fair trade coffee, hot chocolate, Use the coupon code majority. You will get 10% off. Matt, I got.

[Emma Viglin]

Matt's here today after this show left. Reckoning is set to premiere at 2:30pm and it's Dave and Matt reflect on primary in Texas. Then Daniel Besner joins us to talk about the new essay collection he's edited with Michael Bernays called Cold War Liberalism.

[Sam Seder]

What? You got a problem with Bernays?

[Emma Viglin]

I was making sure I said it right. I didn't want to be like you and say croissant.

[Sam Seder]

Yeah. I appreciate that. Bear nays, I think is the way you would say that.

[Brian]

Yeah.

[Emma Viglin]

That's the sauce. Right?

[Brian]

Right.

[Sam Seder]

Yeah.

[Brian]

I'm hungry.

[Sam Seder]

See you in the fun half.

[Brian]

Eh.

[Sam Seder]

Three months from now, six months from now, nine months from now. And I don't think it's going to be the same as it looks like in six months from now. And I don't know if it's necessarily going to be better six months from now than it is three months from now. But I think around 18 months out we're going to look back and go like wow. What? What is that going on? It's nut. Wait a second. Hold on. Hold on for a second. Emma. Welcome to the program. Fun half. Matt.

[Ryan Schwenk]

Boo.

[Sam Seder]

Fun hack. What is up everyone? Fun half. No me. Keen.

[Brian]

You did it.

[Sam Seder]

Fun hack.

[Brian]

Let's go, Brandon.

[Alexander Avenia]

Let's go, Brandon.

[Sam Seder]

Fun hack. Bradley, you want to say hello? Sorry to disappoint everyone. I'm just a random guy. It's all the boys today.

[Brian]

Fundamentally false. No. I'm sorry.

[Ryan Schwenk]

Women.

[Sam Seder]

Stop talking for a second and let me finish.

[Brian]

Where is this coming from? Dude.

[Sam Seder]

But. Dude. You want to smoke this? 7A.

[Brian]

Yes. Hi.

[Sam Seder]

Me. Is it yes. Is this me? Is it me? It is you. If it's me.

[Alexander Avenia]

Hello.

[Sam Seder]

I think it is you. Who is you? No sound. Every single freaking day. What's on your mind? We can discuss free markets and we can discuss capitalism.

[Brian]

I'm gonna go snow white.

[Sam Seder]

Libertarians. They're so stupid. Though common sense says of course.

[Brian]

Gobbledygook.

[Sam Seder]

We nailed him.

[Brian]

So what? 79 plus 21 challenge.

[Sam Seder]

Matt.

[Alexander Avenia]

I'm positively quivering.

[Sam Seder]

I believe. 96. I want to say. 8572-1085-0113-8911.

[Todd Stormer]

For instance.

[Brian]

$3,400. $1,900. 5, 4.

[Sam Seder]

$3 trillion. Sold. It's a zero sum game.

[Brian]

Actually. You're making me think less.

[Sam Seder]

But let me say this. Call it satire. Sam goes in satire. On top of it all.

[Brian]

My favorite part about you is just like every day all day like everything you do.

[Sam Seder]

Without a doubt. Hey, buddy. We see you. All right, folks, folks, folks.

[Brian]

It's just the week being weeded out. Obviously. Yeah.

[Sam Seder]

Sun's out, guns out. I. I don't know.

[Brian]

But you should know,

[Sam Seder]

people just don't like to entertain ideas anymore. I have a question. Who cares? Our chat is enabled, folks. I love it.

[Brian]

I do love that.

[Sam Seder]

Gotta jump. Gotta be quick. I gotta jump. I'm losing it, bro. Two o', clock, we're already late and the guy's being a dick. So screw them. Sent to a gulag.

[Brian]

Outrageous.

[Sam Seder]

What is wrong with you? Love you. Bye. Love you. Bye. Bye.