3597 - Iran Will Decide When This Ends; Justice Democrat in Illinois w/ Juan Cole, Kat Abughazaleh

Summary

---

The Majority Report with Sam Seder

Episode 3597 – Iran Will Decide When This Ends; Justice Democrat in Illinois
Release Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Sam Seder
Co-Host: Emma Vigeland
Guests: Kat Abughazaleh (IL-9 Democratic candidate), Professor Juan Cole (University of Michigan)

---

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the ongoing Iran war and its repercussions in the US and the Middle East, with a focus on who controls the endgame—spoiler: Iran. The hosts also spotlight the crowded Democratic primary in Illinois’s 9th Congressional District, featuring progressive candidate Kat Abughazaleh. The show’s latter half is a deep-dive with Middle East expert Professor Juan Cole into the reality on the ground in Iran, the region, and where US strategy may be faltering.

---

Key Segments & Timestamps

1. News and Commentary
   • [09:51–18:04] Trump’s bungling of the Iran war, the school bombing, and how the administration handles accountability.
   • [43:37–81:58] Interview with Professor Juan Cole on the Iran war: information blackout, regional strategy, and the shifting balance of power.
2. Interview: Kat Abughazaleh (IL-9 Candidate)
   • [25:09–42:34] Discussing the crowded Illinois primary, AIPAC money, progressive endorsements, and campaign tactics.

---

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iran War: Control, Catastrophe, and Attempts at Exit

(w/ Professor Juan Cole)

Information Blackouts and Media Control

• The hosts and Juan Cole highlight how media access and transparency have deteriorated since the Iraq War, now compounded by satellite imagery delays (e.g., Planet Labs holding Middle East shots for 14 days) and censorship from all sides.
• “You know, back in Iraq war days, I could go on the Internet and look at local Iraqi newspapers ... I find it difficult to do that in Iran because they're also highly controlled. ... We've become more and more of an oligarchy, both with regard to socioeconomic affairs, but also with regard to media.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 44:49)

Trump’s Incoherent Messaging & Market Manipulation

• Trump’s public statements fluctuate between escalation and seeking an exit from the conflict.
• Oil prices reflect the administration’s erratic messaging, dropping dramatically when Trump implies the war might be over.

“He seemed to have gone to like two different places yesterday. But the bottom line is he was floating towards the end of the day that he felt like the Iran war was, was done....This is a guy looking for an exit ramp.” (Sam Seder, 10:01)

US & Israeli Accountability—The School Bombing

• The hosts dissect Trump’s deflections after a US strike killed more than 100 schoolchildren in Tehran. Trump tried to blame other countries, suggesting that Tomahawk missiles could have come from elsewhere, a claim debunked in real-time:

“Iran doesn't have Tomahawks.” (Matt Leck, 13:57)

• Memorable quote:

“It is very in keeping with Trump to admire the power of the weapon used to inflict pain and harm and death upon little girls. Seems to be something that he really enjoys.” (Emma Vigeland, 13:39)

Iran’s Leverage: “Iran Will Decide When This Ends”

• Professor Cole makes clear that Iran now holds the cards, primarily via its ability to disrupt oil markets globally and its proven resilience to bombing campaigns.

“If you take 20% off the market, it doesn't go—the price doesn't go up 20% because both demand and production are inelastic....It's going to be a bidding war essentially for every gallon of gas.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 68:19–70:22)

• Juan Cole emphasizes that Iran’s strategy is to inflict a pain threshold on the US, Israel, and GCC allies until a new security arrangement is recognized.

“Iran is not going to put up with that. They're a big country and not a poor one. ... They want that message to get through, so they're not going to stand down until they get an understanding of that sort.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 61:36)

Regional Upheaval: GCC & Turkish Dynamics

• Iran’s strikes have not only hit US military targets, but also GCC oil infrastructure, threatening the financial stability of Dubai and others.
• The Saudis and Qataris are furious at being dragged into the conflict, and Iran’s actions have devalued the Abraham Accords as they seek new security guarantees.

“The Saudis are not going to put up with being vulnerable....I wouldn't be surprised, but the outcome of what Netanyahu has done is to push the entire region towards nuclearization.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 81:14)

2. Illinois’ 9th Congressional District: Progressives, AIPAC, and Digital Organizing

(w/ Kat Abughazaleh)

A Crowded Progressive Field

• There are 16 Democratic candidates in the race; Kat was the first to announce before the incumbent’s retirement.
• The top three candidates are polling closely; Kat is the only one refusing to engage with AIPAC.

“Of those three, I'm the only one that hasn't met with or submitted a position paper to AIPAC, which I thought was a low bar, but apparently not.” (Kat Abu Zela, 25:19)

AIPAC’s Influence and Negative Ads

• APAC’s dark money is targeting progressive candidates with attack ads, including AI-generated smears against Kat.

“The one who is backed by AIPAC, they just released their second attack ad against me and it's just as dumb as the first one.” (Kat Abu Zela, 26:15)

Grassroots Funding & Organizing

• Kat’s campaign is funded by over 60,000 mostly small donors; average donation: $32.
• She implements digital outreach via live streams as an alternative to traditional “call time” with wealthy donors, engaging the base in a less transactional way.
• Her coalition includes Justice Democrats, Ro Khanna, the Sunrise Movement, and nurses’ unions.

Debunking Myths about Jewish Voters and Palestine Advocacy

• The district has a significant Jewish population, but Kat finds broad support for Palestinian rights and opposition to genocide.

“Jewish people have consistently been the greatest allies in fighting for Palestinian liberation. ... The idea that just because you are Jewish you have to support the actions of the state of Israel or that they're one and the same is so offensive.” (Kat Abu Zela, 32:08)

Policy Focus and Personal Narrative

• As a journalist/researcher on the far right, Kat emphasizes mutual aid, impeachment, progressive power-building, and a creative approach to stalling right-wing agendas.
• She’s a dues-paying DSA member and is facing trial for protesting ICE, framing state repression as a badge of honor for effective organizing.

“I've been indicted for protesting ICE. My trial is May 26th. ... There’s a reason this administration is coming after me and ... it’s because ... they don't want me in power.” (Kat Abu Zela, 35:50)

---

Notable Quotes

“It's obvious on day one what had happened and just the idea that it gets strung out this long is in and of itself a victory for them because it is meant to essentially amateurize the horrors that we've created.”
— Sam Seder, [16:58]

“Iran is not Gaza. ... They want that message to get through, so they're not going to stand down until they get an understanding of that sort.”
— Professor Juan Cole, [61:36]

“This is an opportunity to get a seat and sort of move that seat to the left ... I always encourage people to vote for the candidate that they most support. But no, I don't think any coalescing will happen.”
— Kat Abughazaleh, [30:01]

---

Memorable Moments

• Trump on the Tehran School Bombing:
  Avoidance and misdirection, trying to blame Iran for a US Tomahawk strike that killed children, drawing scorn from all corners.
• Market Reactions:
  Oil prices crashing and rebounding in real time based on Trump’s press conferences.
• Kat’s Campaign Tactics:
  Skipping donor call hours in favor of campaign livestreams and crowdsourced digital outreach.
• Juan Cole’s Sobering Assessment:
  Oil disruption will hurt the global economy for months, Iran is setting the pace, and US/Israeli force will not bring a quick end.

---

Conclusion

This episode presents a stark assessment of American power and the limits of war—both militarily and in public narrative. Iran is dictating the terms, and the damage from oil supply shocks is only beginning. The Illinois 9th race illustrates the pressures—and opportunities—for unapologetic progressives to build movement infrastructure under the shadow of AIPAC dark money. Episode ends with a call for member support and a warning: the next months—and years—may look very different.

---

For more information or to support the show, visit Majority.FM or join the membership!

Transcript

[Sam Cedar]

Oh, hi. I was just thinking about that time I walked into a wine store and I'm like, what the hell is going on here? I don't know what to do. Actually, that happened probably about 100 times in my life, but I don't do that anymore because I have a great new way of finding great wines at a significant discount from what you would see in a wine store that is. Naked Wines makes it so much easier to choose and find great wines. This podcast is sponsored by Naked Wines and Naked Wines is a wine club that directly connects you to the world's best independent winemakers. So you can get world class wine delivered straight to your door. You can use our code Majority for the code and the [e-mail] and get $100 off your first order. That's six bottles of wine or for just 39. 99. I have had Naked Wines. Well, really, I guess over a year ago now. Wait, what? I don't even know what time it is. Thanksgiving. All of our Thanksgiving wines were. Were I bought from Naked Wines and still, like when I have a nice Syrah or a Pinot Grigio, if I'm looking for white, it's spring now. Of course I moved to white, but I wait until after Memorial Day to do that.

[Emma Vigeland]

Wow.

[Sam Cedar]

No, but, but no. I'm a red wine guy, but I'm not a big, like, fruity California wine guy. Although they have some great California wines, but they have all sorts of wines. And here's the key. My sister, as you probably know, used to work for wineries in Italy 10 years ago or. And she is a huge wine snob. Not only has she enjoyed these Naked Wines, which I, I gotta say I was shocked because I've never, ever.

[Emma Vigeland]

And at Thanksgiving, that's.

[Sam Cedar]

I have never bought, prior to this, I never had a bottle of wine. I mean, there's a whole host of things where she says, this is not no good while you're doing this. But she loved these wines. And the thing that she told me is where I guess I knew that she had told me this ages ago. The markup is massive. There are so many middle people, if you will, in between a winery, and by the time that it gets to your dinner table or your wine store, that prices get marked up and marked up. And the beautiful thing about Naked Wines is they bring you wine, amazing wines straight from the winery at up to 60% less than you would pay in a store. Like I say, they cut out all these extras like middleman markups. And so winemakers can pass those savings onto you without skimping on quality. Naked's wines had been around for over 15 years, backs over 90 independent winemakers around the world to make the wine you love to drink. Get the best wine at the best price. With Naked Wines, now's the time to join the Naked Wines community. Head to nakedwines.com Majority Enter Click Enter voucher Put in our code Majority for both the code and the password and you get a hundred dollars off your first order. That's six bottles for only 39.99 with shipping included. That's $100 off your first six bottles. At naked wines.com/majority use the code and use Majority as the code and password for six bottles of wine at 39.99. We'll put this in the podcast in the YouTube description now time for the show. It is Tuesday, March 10, 2026. My name is Sam Cedar. This is the five time award winning Majority Report. We are broadcasting live steps from the industrially ravaged Gowanus Canal in the heartland of America, downtown Brooklyn, usa. On the program today, Kat Abu Gazella, running for Illinois's 9th congressional district in the Democratic primary, which is happening in a week. Is it March 17?

[Emma Vigeland]

I believe so, yeah.

[Sam Cedar]

Also joining us, Professor Juan Cole, professor of history at the University of Michigan, founder and editor, chief of Informed comment, author of multiple books, Middle east expert. We'll be talking about the Iran war. Speaking of the Iran war, Trump increasingly incoherent as his advisers beg him to end the war or at the very least assuage the markets. Meanwhile, five Democrats go around Chuck Schumer and threaten to shut down the Senate over war hearings. First two days of Iran war cost at least $5.6 billion just in the bombs alone. Doge Trump delaying Texas Senate race endorsement to leverage a Senate vote on the SAVE Act. He really, really wants to make it harder to vote because he thinks that's going to help him in the midterms. I don't think so. Speaking of midterms or elections, there's a special election in deep red Georgia today to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene. There are 14 candidates. There's no primary. Three of them are Democrats. It was a plus 28 Trump district, but who knows. Meanwhile, Mike Johnson facing in an even narrower margin as a California representative. Kevin Kiley now claims he's an independent. He's seen the light.

[Emma Vigeland]

We rarely, rarely get that in reverse.

[Sam Cedar]

What's that? That an independent.

[Emma Vigeland]

Republicans going independent.

[Sam Cedar]

Oh, well, he's a little nervous about his seat.

[Emma Vigeland]

Oh yeah.

[Sam Cedar]

States ask Judge to continue their monopoly claims versus Live Nation after Trump lets them off the hook. I'm sure they didn't pay for that pardon. DOJ's Ed Martin facing ethics charges and Pete Hegseth spending millions of dollars, huh? On lobster tails. All this and more on today's Majority Report. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. Thanks so much for joining us.

[Emma Vigeland]

It is News Day Tuesday.

[Sam Cedar]

News day Tuesday. Yeah.

[Emma Vigeland]

And the lobster tail thing, they really think they're in Mad Men and they don't understand that that is supposed to be a critique behavior.

[Sam Cedar]

Yes. No. I mean, look, Hegseth realizes he is already gone further than he was ever destined to go.

[Emma Vigeland]

I know.

[Sam Cedar]

And now I'm happy to be here.

[Emma Vigeland]

Energy just oozes off of him anytime he's in front of a camera.

[Sam Cedar]

He's playing with the house money now.

[Emma Vigeland]

Yeah.

[Sam Cedar]

That's his attitude. It doesn't matter.

[Emma Vigeland]

And he gets to cash in at some defense contractor on board seat where he'll show up four times a year maybe, unless he's had a, a rough night the night before and get paid $1 million carefully.

[Matt Leck]

If you're at a hotel with him.

[Sam Cedar]

Folks are asking me. I think I mentioned this yesterday on the program. Mike Lawler, staffer says, Sam, were you supposed to debate Olivia Rheingold last night? She posted a video on this morning talking about how she was supposed to. We will play that video. I was supposed to be on CNN last night, but I got bumped because Donald Trump and his war. It was a very ridiculous segment about. About tweets. No, no, no. Instagram likes that Mamdani's wife had made prior to him being mayor. For the most part. I had no problem. I mean like, I would subscribe to, I think like 90%. I don't. 95%, 98%. Just like without even any debate. I'm not on Instagram. I don't know how to exactly work it. So it's, it's not a one to one comparison. But the idea that this was going to be a cable news segment was even more sort of like prioritizing it

[Emma Vigeland]

in the midst of. And I mean, let alone the fact that Zoran was just the victim of an attempted attack by a bomb that was lobbed at Gracie Mansion.

[Sam Cedar]

It's unclear if he was the attempted victim. It's unclear.

[Emma Vigeland]

Okay. Well, there were Islamophobia, big protests outside that were the impetus for said bomb.

[Sam Cedar]

So either way, not seeing the show refresh. But of course, you wouldn't know to do that because technical troubles abound. But let's let's get to this. Donald Trump and the, you know, I think the biggest story is not that I got bumped from CNN last night. Donald Trump went on the television program yesterday, or I should say, to start to give updates on the Iran war. He seemed to have gone to like two different places yesterday. But the bottom line is he was floating towards the end of the day that he felt like the Iran war was, was done. Now, I'm, I'm quite convinced that he's trying to figure a way out of it. We had talked about this yesterday. I think we had even played the, I can't remember his spokesperson's name now. Levitt, Levitt, Caroline Levitt, saying, well, Donald Trump will decide when they have unconditionally surrendered, regardless of what they say. He decides whether it's an unconditional surrender, which suggested to us that this is a guy looking for an exit ramp. And certainly he's getting a lot more pressure as the price of oil goes. I don't know what they thought was going to happen. We'll talk to Professor Juan Cole about this.

[Emma Vigeland]

But like it was at $120 a barrel to start Monday. And then when Trump goes on and filibusters about how he wants to end the war, he says, at least, although their actions don't seem to match that rhetoric, then it fell to $90. So the question is, is how much is this psychopath just going out there and trying to manipulate the market to make himself look better and still engaging in these bloodthirsty war crimes whenever he wants to the next morning?

[Sam Cedar]

I mean, my guess is, is that they want to get out. They realize this is going to be a problem and they're trying to figure out how to get out of this situation because, and we'll talk more about this with Professor Cole. It's unclear that Iran at this point thinks it's in their best interest to disengage because, but we'll, you know, like I say, we will talk to Juan Cole about that. But here is Donald Trump, and this is fascinating. First off, note that his energy was incredibly low during this. But aside from that, he sort of gives up the ghost pretty quick. But let's play this. First time he's asked this question. It's in regards to the bombing of a school, elementary school in Tehran where at least 100 school children were killed and approximately 175 people in total were killed by the United States. And here's Donald Trump trying to dance around that for a moment. This number.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Yeah, good.

[Reporter]

Please Go ahead.

[Sam Cedar]

There's a footage that shows an American missile strike and a Tomahawk missile likely destroyed that Iranian girls school. So will the Americans, will the US Accept any responsibility?

[Reporter]

Well, I haven't seen it. And I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, is sold and used by other countries. You know that. And whether it's Iran who also has some Tomahawks, I wish they had more. But whether it's Iran or somebody else, the fact that a Tomahawk. A Tomahawk is very generic. It's sold to other countries, but that's being investigated right now.

[Emma Vigeland]

Yeah, all the other countries have Tomahawks or other countries bombing Iran. But, you know, it is very in keeping with Trump to admire the power of the weapon used to inflict pain and harm and death upon little girls. Seems to be something that he really enjoys.

[Matt Leck]

Iran doesn't have Tomahawks.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Right.

[Sam Cedar]

They do not have Tomahawk missiles unless we have been secretly selling them to Iran. But the point being that, like, it's obviously conceivable that we have sold Tomahawks to other countries, but for instance, like Australia or United, you know, Britain, Japan and Netherlands I believe are other. But none of these people are engaged in a bombing campaign against Iran.

[Emma Vigeland]

And what if they were just generics? Like when you get the CVS brand of your Band Aid, we do a

[Sam Cedar]

lot of white label Tomahawks. So they become other types of.

[Emma Vigeland]

I could barely muster a joke.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Who are you selling this?

[Sam Cedar]

Slingshots. Some people market them as slingshots. We call them Tomahawks. Yeah, catapults. Some, some people sell them as catapults. A reporter decided to do a follow up question and note that the reporter was a white male. So. Well, the question gets answered.

[Emma Vigeland]

But credit, credit, credit here. This is guys from the New York Times, Sean McCreesh. And this is perhaps besides Kaitlan Collins, like the only good question I've seen like posed to Donald Trump in recent weeks. And some.

[Sam Cedar]

Yeah, you just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war. But you're the only person in your government saying this. Even your defense secretary wouldn't say that when he was asked, standing over your shoulder on your plane on Saturday. Why are you the only person saying this?

[Reporter]

Because I just don't know enough about it. I think it's something that I was told is under investigation. But Tomahawks are, are used by others. As you know, numerous other nations have tomahawks. They buy them from us. But I will certainly whatever the report shows. I'm willing to live with that report.

[Sam Cedar]

I bet you are.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Yeah.

[Emma Vigeland]

You know the. There's nobody, as the reporter asked, no Republicans. It seems like not even his own sec here. This is John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana. This was his quote. It was terrible. We made a mistake. Other countries do that sort of thing intentionally like Russia. Interesting. We would never do that intentionally. I think the department is investigating it now and I'm sorry. I'm just so sorry it happened. It was a mistake. Spare me your pearl clutching Kennedy as you vote to send endless arms to Israel. Cuz that would be the more prescient example here. Like we civilized folk are above this kind of thing. No, no, no. We just outsource it to Israel and subcontract our child killing out to them. This time we just have. This time this was us. We just did it more directly because the President got his rocks off about killing and hurting little girls. Again seems to be a theme.

[Sam Cedar]

I don't know anything about it, but to the extent that I do, I'll blame other people. I don't know. It's obvious on day one what had happened and just the idea that it gets strung out this long is in and of itself a victory for them because it is meant to essentially amateurize the horrors that we've created. When we look at Israel, they're doing the same thing too with Israel now, where Israel supposedly was the ones who blew up these refinery and depots outside of Tehran that have essentially doomed millions of people to the potential for new cancers and diseases as petroleum rain rains down upon them. And they blame Israel.

[Emma Vigeland]

But I just, just quickly one more point. Without prosecuting the Bush war criminals, this is how what we've enabled that this is, this is what we've wrought.

[Sam Cedar]

All right, we got to take a. In a moment we'll, we'll be talking to Kat Abuzela and Professor Juan Cole. First, couple words from our sponsors. One is from Delete Me. It's a company that we've been. That I've been using for at least 10 years. Delete me makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. Delete Me does all the hard work of wiping you and your family's personal information from data broker websites. I've been using delete me for 10 years. Obviously doing this job, I don't want all my personal information floating around. Delete Me is great. They send you like a monthly digest of basically what they found, where they found it, and what they deleted because you got to keep on it. Because the broker, the, the data brokers keep re reconstituting your information. But the protection is not just for people who do stuff like this. The way that hackers work, they find information on the dark web. They combine it with information they can buy for a couple of bucks at a data broker. Then they steal your identity or they buy stuff from a data broker. They find out your, your cousin's name, your, your parents name, your phone number, some past addresses, they send you an email, and that's how they do their phishing scams. This is a great way to protect yourself and also, frankly, a great way to protect maybe some of your elder parents. You guys are all too young for this, and I'm not making any aspersions, but when your parents get to be a certain age, you want to basically wall stuff off, if you know what I'm talking about. Data brokers make a profit off your data. Your data is a commodity. Anyone on the web can buy your private details. This can lead to identity theft, like I said, phishing attempts, and harassment. But now you can protect your privacy with Delete Me. What do data brokers do? They get your name, your contact information, sometimes Social Security number, your home address, and even information about your family members could all be compiled by these data brokers and sold online. Thanks to Delete Me for sponsoring the Majority report. Take control of your data. Keep your private life private by signing up for Delete Me now at a special discount for our listeners. Get 20% off your delete Me plan when you go and join delete me.com/majority. Use the promo code Majority at checkout. The only way to get 20% off go to join deleteme.com/majority. Enter code majority at checkout. That's joinedelete me.com/majority code. Is majority also sponsoring the program today? Cozy Earth. What is comfort that carries you from morning to night? Feel like cozy Earth crafts every piece with care. From soft supportive socks for your steps through the day to breathable comforters that help you rest deeply at night. Every detail is intentional, so your every day feels quietly elevated. In fact, this is literally my experience. I am right now wearing a pair of cozy earth socks.

[Emma Vigeland]

Wow.

[Sam Cedar]

To Brian. He made me get up and go look at his socks. I. I have a lace. Nothing to do but they, they're, they're sharp looking too though, aren't they? They are like half maroon, half gold. University of Minnesota colors. Well, I'm not concerned about that, but Gophers, Boston College. Boston College.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Yeah.

[Sam Cedar]

I'm not a fan of Boston College too. I'm a Holy Cross guy, but that's not the point. They're incredibly soft. I was telling Brian these socks do not get into my drawer. They are in constant. As soon as I wash them and fold them, I leave them on my bed and I wear them next. They're like, they're, they're in that type of cycle. There's no downtime for the child cycle. It's sort of, it's maybe a little bit. But I mean I really like these socks. They're the first ones I wear when, when I do my laundry. And of course I have Cozy Earth sheets. I have Cozy Earth comforter. I have, my favorite hoodie is a Cozy Earth hoodie. I got the joggers. I don't wear the joggers that much, you know, because I, I get into a jag with my pants. But, but when I need a jogger, I wear those joggers. But I wear the, the hoodie is amazing. The joggers are amazing too. But I just, and the socks, obviously. As you can tell, I am in love with my Cozy Earth socks. I may go all Cozy Earth socks.

[Emma Vigeland]

Nice.

[Sam Cedar]

I may even like, I, I rarely will get rid of socks unless they're. They got a hole in them. But I want to go Cozy Earth. Crafted with intention to support those are the comforters crafted with intention to support deeper rest. Designed with naturally breathable temperature regulating materials, these luxuriously soft comforters help your body settle, cool and calm. Gently supported through the night. And Cozy Earth purchases are risk free. They have 100 night sleep trial. Try them out. If you don't love them, return them. Hassle free 10 year warranty. Because once you feel this level of comfort, you want it to last a decade. Thanks to Cozy Earth for sponsoring this episode and for my socks, my comforter, my sheets. Discover how care in every detail transforms simple routines into moments of true comfort and ease. Head to cozy earth.com use code majority report for up to 20% off. That's code majority report for up to 20 percent off. And if you get a post purchase survey be sure to mention you heard about Cozy Earth right here. Experience the craft behind the comfort. Make every day feel intentional.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Quick break.

[Sam Cedar]

When we come back, Kat Abuzala running for Illinois's 9th congressional district. Sam, We are back. Sam Cedar, Emma Viglin on the Majority Report. It is a pleasure to welcome to the program Kat Abu Zela, running for Illinois's 9th congressional district in a primary. Cat that has how many Democratic candidates vying for this?

[Kat Abu Zela]

Sixteen.

[Emma Vigeland]

Wow.

[Kat Abu Zela]

I love the laughing in the background.

[Sam Cedar]

No, that's insane. Why so many candidates? Do you have an idea?

[Kat Abu Zela]

Like, I mean, I love it. It's a competitive primary. I was the first one to launch and the only one to launch before the incumbent announced her retirement. And I actually said, because there hasn't been a competitive primary in this district since before I was born. I was like, hey, if anyone wants to run, I will help you file the FEC paperwork. No one in this race took me up on it. But I am very glad that we have a competitive primary. And right now there are three highest polling candidates. I am in a close second, single digits from first, and of those three, I'm the only one that hasn't met with or submitted a position paper to apac, which I thought was a low bar, but apparently not.

[Sam Cedar]

Okay, well, that is, I, that's impressive that there, I mean, it's impressive to me that there are candidates, Democratic primary candidates, who are sort of like openly courting aipac. That seems nuts to me at this stage.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yeah, it really is. And the one who is backed by apac, they just released their second attack ad against me and it's just as dumb as the first one. But the other candidate who is now speaking out against apac, which. Great, that's awesome. Claims that he met with them because he meets with everyone, even people he disagrees with. And personally, I don't think AIPAC is someone you should meet with, even if it is a differing position. Genocide and manipulating elections isn't a differing position. That is where I draw the line, at least.

[Emma Vigeland]

Well, are you relying on small dollar donations? Right, that's your, your campaign is based on that.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yep. We are the only campaign in this race to be funded by majority small dollar donations.

[Emma Vigeland]

Which is interesting because, you know, I, you see how some of these candidates, it's almost like once they get the AIPAC tag, they become so politically toxic that they can't fundraise in another way. So then they become more reliant on aipac. We're seeing this with Haley Stevens in Michigan, but I'd imagine that that's something that's happening in your race as well.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Definitely. And it's kind of crazy because there are, I think there are people across the country that are, you know, Nice people maybe did good work before taking APAC support. But APAC knows it's toxic, which is why it operates now with dark money packs and it's made these candidates toxic as well. If they don't win, then that's always going to be a stain on their career.

[Emma Vigeland]

How did they run ads against you? What were the nature of the ads? Because we know that they're running, you know, In New Jersey 11, for example, they funded an ad campaign hitting Tom. Gosh, what was the name of the. From the left. And, and, and it ended up benefiting the actual left wing candidate in the race.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yeah. So they, they've attacked, they started attacking the, the person that's currently in first to single digits between us doing similarly to what happened in New Jersey 11, attacking him for not being pro Israel enough, despite saying that he'd fund the Iron Dome, that he supports anti BDS legislation at the federal level. And then I think in the past couple weeks they realized, oh shit, I'm going to win this thing. So they first released an ad that was AI generated that quoted my high school newspaper twice. And the whole idea was who is Kat Abu Ghazali? And the new ad that they released, which they released in the same text thread as their other dark money pack because APAC's getting sloppy is about how I'm a fake that takes money from Saudi arms dealers and billionaires and Republicans, which as far as the last two. Quite an allegation for AIPAC to make. Also wrong.

[Sam Cedar]

Yes, let's, let's get to endorsements. I mean, we're at the stage of the election. You're a week out from the election. The, you are in the top three essentially in all the polling that exists at this point. And a. Is there any sense that there's going to be a coalescing? There are other progressive candidates in this race. Is there going to be a coalescing from your perspective? Because this is an opportunity to get a seat and sort of move that seat to the left for lack of a better way of expressing this versus two people who are out there trying to, you know, court AIPAC in some fashion. What's your sense about that? Or do you have an opinion on that or what?

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yeah, so we're really lucky that we have multiple progressives in our race, but we don't have ranked choice voting here. We don't even have a runoff. So someone could win this race with 20%. And that means that essentially there are three candidates, the ones that we've been talking about that are the most viable. Of course I don't know what's going to happen. I don't think any vote is wasted. I always encourage people to vote for the candidate that they most support. But no, I don't think any coalescing will happen. I'll say on my side for organizations like that. I've been endorsed by in my application. I did commit to dropping out if it seemed like we didn't have a likely path to victory. But I think that everyone has the right to run for office, especially if they've fulfilled all the requirements. I mean, you go out there, you get those signatures, you're on the ballot.

[Sam Cedar]

Well, let's talk a little bit about those endorsements. You got quite a few of them from sort of progressive organizations. Tell us about a couple of.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yeah, so I've been endorsed by Justice Democrats. That one was pretty recently. As well as palpac, which is the Peace, Accountability and Leadership pac. In response to apac. I was one of, I believe, their first non incumbent endorsement, which is really exciting. I've been endorsed by Congressman Ro Khanna by if Not Now Chicago by the Sunrise Movement, both Chicago and national, the nurses union here, the Justice Coalition, State Representative Abdel Nasser Rashid, A lot of people this race has so many folks in it and it's gotten so messy that there's kind of this sense of I don't want to touch that race with a ten foot pole, but we're very proud of the coalition that we have built, especially as a grassroots campaign.

[Emma Vigeland]

Well, I had read on your site that your district is one of the more Jewish districts in the country, which I hadn't realized. I think there is this false notion from the national press and we saw this in Zoran Mamdani's race that in some way criticizing Israel's genocide is a liability with Jew voters. What have you found in your kind of stance on this and how your the people in your districts or potential districts have responded?

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yeah, that's absolutely not the case. You know, I'm despite everything about how I look, I'm Palestinian American. I have been advocating against this genocide for years. I've been advocating for Palestinian statehood essentially my entire life. And I remember when I launched my campaign, people saying that there is no way anyone would ever vote for me because there is such a large Jewish population here. In fact, Yoki, which is in the district, had the largest proportion of Holocaust survivors outside of Israel after the Holocaust. And I personally find that idea of they would never vote for a Palestinian so offensive. Especially when Jewish people have consistently been the greatest allies in fighting for Palestinian liberation. Our lives and our futures are inextricable from each other. And the idea that just because you are Jewish you have to support the actions of the state of Israel or that they're one and the same is the so offensive. And most people don't support what is happening in Gaza or the West Bank.

[Sam Cedar]

Give us a sense of like in the event that you do win and we should say this is a very blue district, the winner of the Democratic primary is going to end up being the congressperson from this district. Well, where do you see yourself concentrating? I mean members enter into Congress, there are committee assignments that they're looking for because they want to focus on a specific issue area. What would be yours?

[Kat Abu Zela]

So I am a researcher and journalist who covers the far right. I worked for Immediate Matters, Mother Jones, the Teo News and part of why I ran is because I was like, well they're going to do something. Democrats are going to do something after Trump is reelected. And then they didn't. So first off, it's about selling this president's agenda, however possible, working towards impeachment, conviction and removal, the abolition and prosecution of ICE and truly stalling this agenda however we can. We have to be more creative, whether it's in exploiting parliamentary procedure or using our resources in a different way. Like our campaign uses our office as a mutual aid hub. The Democratic Party is a massive donor base and we could be fulfilling people's material needs right now and also showing through our actions our values. Especially when people are so disillusioned in politics rather than just making a bunch of promises and talking like Gavin Newsom also from March 18th till election day in November, like you said, this is a very Democratic district. And so if we're able to win this, we're going to be using our resources and our platform to get progressives elected nationwide.

[Emma Vigeland]

Lastly, I know that there's a DSA endorsed candidate in your race, but as you're saying, your polling kind of puts you in the position where of the lefty candidates you're the one most likely to pull this off. What is your position on DSA despite not getting that endorsement? And do you feel that you could kind of embrace certain at least tactics from DSA or have alignment on policies with DSA going forward?

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yeah. First off, I am a dues paying member of dsa. I have been for my entire adult life. I should say that there are actually I don't believe there is a DSA endorsed candidate in my race. There was A recommended candidate for apologies Recommended yeah for a chapter that was in the farther suburbs trips which still fantastic for that candidate. We did not pursue the DSA endorsement because I believe that was happening around our indictment. Things have been crazy over here but I, I am a democratic socialist. I'm a dues paying DSA member and I have been for my entire adult life.

[Sam Cedar]

We should say the indictment was not on was one which I think you could take some pride in.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Oh yeah yeah yeah actually I was the last time I was supposed to come on here was after my arraignment and then yeah I. That was a little crazy so I've been indicted for protesting ICE. My trial is May 26th. If anyone is free it'll be really really stupid but yeah, I mean there's a reason this administration is coming after me and why I and some of the most effective critics of this administration have been indicted and it's because everyone I used to report on and win against Stephen Miller, Elon Musk, Tom Homan, they run our country now. They know me and they don't want me in power.

[Sam Cedar]

What I ask is I have watched the Breaking Points interview you did with Crystal Ball and Ryan Grim regarding a leaked email that from an adviser to you who has since left the campaign regarding characterizing you as an interventionist to the extent that we know what that means, I'm not sure but and also regarding your perspective on Taiwan. I would encourage people if they're really invested in this to go into that interview because it was, it was, it was about as in depth of a candidate interview I've seen on a very specific topic and but broadly speaking, just give us the broader answer for that. For those people who may be afraid that you are going to lead a a massive campaign in the House to, to not just perhaps get into a war with China.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Yeah, no, I mean look, war with any country and especially China is the last thing that I want when I talk about dropping strategic ambiguity specifically militarily, it's because we have a madman as the president. And if we have a president who is even somewhat predictable as pretty much all of them since Nixon in one way or another have been, I wouldn't dream of touching it. But I also firmly believe in self determination and if people disagree with me on this, that is fine. But this is, especially as a Palestinian person, extremely important to me. It's why I also don't believe in touching the one China policy politically. If the people of Taiwan democratically vote for reunification, we should absolutely support that. This stance that I have is not for China as a boogeyman or for control of Taiwan. This is specifically because of self determination. Once again, if you disagree with that, that is your stance. But that's important to me. And this is an act for deterrence. We need to be investing in diplomacy and we also need to be looking at China as a trade and innovation partner. But that's not possible with Republicans where they are now. And it's also not possible when any country is doing imperialism. That includes the United States, but it also includes Israel, it includes China, it includes Russia. Russia, imperialism and wars of aggression are bad. And I feel very strongly about that.

[Sam Cedar]

Got a week left. Literally a week before the voting starts. Or I should say, is is there early voting in this district?

[Kat Abu Zela]

There is early voting and we also have same day voter registration here. So you can take your ID and a piece of mail that confirms your address on there and go to the polls. They will register you. They will give you a ballot. A lot of cases you don't even have to do a provisional ballot so your ballot can be counted. Then Election day is March 17. If you want to know more, if you live in the area, this district goes from Uptown Chicago up to Evanston, West Tuskokie, and then all the way to Algonquin and Crystal Lake. It's gerrymandered to hell. You go to catforillinois.com vote if you live in Illinois, please sign up for one of our Reach trainings, which is an app that essentially cross references your contacts with voter data so you can contact people you know to let them know to vote. If they're in the area. You can do that cat4illinois.com events or sign up for phone banking or door knocking. And then finally we need people to donate so we can keep up with the APAC ads that they've been blasting across platforms. If you can donate any [e-mail] that would be fantastic. With over 60,000 donors, our average donation is still just 32 bucks.

[Sam Cedar]

I'm looking at the, I'm looking at the polling here. There's a public policy polling from February 20th. There's an impact research from earlier in the month of February. You are in second place with essentially the same in both those polls. The guy who is leading BIS has dropped and essentially like this is, this is the, this is the race. There's. And so if folks want to get a progressive in there that's been endorsed by Justice Democrats, the Sunrise Movement, the teachers union, etc. Nurses, sorry, nurses union. This is an opportunity. Seven days to go, I imagine, you know, people knocking on doors is going to be hugely important in a race where you have so many candidates who

[Kat Abu Zela]

are running so many. And we could use any help we can. And like here's the thing, we are going to help elect progressives all across the country and all of those polls, polls, no matter what. I mean, no one knows what's going to happen in this race because there are so many variables mainly that we are targeting everyone, not just likely primary voters which skew older, whiter, affluent. We have a lot of young people in our coalition, a lot of immigrants, a lot of poor people. I'm a renter myself. We were the our own polling was the only one to include categories for renting. We need everyone and we can win this thing.

[Emma Vigeland]

And I just gotta say I didn't know that you were doing the live streams in place of calling hours for donations. We have an IM about that from Sean from PA saying it's a really good idea. Just something to I think for other candidates to note as like the people are trying to adapt to the digital age, that that could be a really interesting way to get people engaged. So and everyone's picking up their phone when they see a number that does not come up as a contact. So. Right.

[Kat Abu Zela]

And it sucks to constantly call rich people and beg for money, which is what every candidate in the of America has had to do. So we play Hades 2 instead.

[Sam Cedar]

Kate Abigella. We will put a link to Kate Cat at Cat for what is it Cat4illinois.com Fo R illinois.com all right, we'll put a link up there. Good luck.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Thank you so much, guys. Great to see you.

[Emma Vigeland]

Thanks so much.

[Sam Cedar]

Thanks for joining us.

[Emma Vigeland]

Good luck.

[Sam Cedar]

All right, folks, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we're going to be talking to Professor Juan Cole, professor of history at University of Michigan, founder and editor in chief of Informed Comment. We'll be right back after this. We are back. Sam Cedar, Emma Vigland on the Majority Report. It's a real pleasure to welcome back to the program Professor Juan Cole, professor of history and Middle East Studies at University of Michigan, founder and editor in chief of informed comment@informed comment.com professor, welcome back to the show.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Thanks so much for having me. Sam, it's great to see you.

[Sam Cedar]

So give us a sense, I mean what I really want to get to is, you know, sort of like what's going on in within Iran on some level because I have to say, I mean you and I had dozens of conversations about the Iraq war over the years, you know, starting, you know, over 20 years ago now. And there was a massive buildup. There was, you know, like a wind up, I should say, to the war. There were multiple countries involved across the globe. There was granted embedded reporters in Iraq, so, and there was occasionally independent reporters. We're just not getting like the same level of information, I guess. CNN has folks in Tehran, but we're not getting information outside of Israel. It's unclear. It seems much harder to access what's

[Professor Juan Cole]

going on big time. Well, I think, you know, I can remember, Sam, when we first started talking, there were these alarmist reports that all of our media was controlled by eight corporations. Yes, I think we're, we may be going towards one. And I, I, we've become more and more of an oligarchy, both with regard to socioeconomic affairs, but also with regard to media. And so the, the major, even the, when we started talking, Facebook didn't yet exist. And, and, and Twitter now has become X. They have algorithms that suppress things that they don't like and they suppress news, they suppress controversial postings. So the, the media landscape is, is very murky. And you know, back in Iraq war days, I could go on the Internet and look at local Iraqi newspapers from towns in Iraq. I find it difficult to do that in Iran because they're also highly controlled. And so it is a very different situation. But I think it's because our politics have shifted so heavily towards oligarchy.

[Sam Cedar]

That's fascinating. And I was hoping that you would still have access to those things, frankly.

[Emma Vigeland]

Well, but I want to mention this because we were right on the topic here. We had meant to ask you about this. How the satellite company Planet essentially delaying its imagery out of the Middle east by 14 days. This is a stark change in. I sent this in our chat. This is a stark change from how they'd approach the war in Ukraine where that satellite imagery was more readily available. I'm wondering what you take from this announcement because this also comes as the Israelis are heavily censoring information about the efficacy of Iranian strikes within Israel.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Well, I don't know the details of that satellite delay, but it certainly makes things murkier and probably deliberately so. You know, Israel is not actually a democracy and has very heavy military censorship. Sometimes newspapers appear with blanks in the front page because the military censors didn't let the news through. So we don't know, I don't think very much about what's actually going on on the ground in Israel. There are a few people like Ori Goldman have tweeted out when they're very heavily hit. But you would be arrested if you showed up with your iPhone trying to take a picture of the damage in the aftermath of an Iranian strike in Israel. So we don't know very much about that front. Lebanon we, we know more about, because the Lebanese are natural anarchists and they are sending out reports. But, and, and Iran itself of course, is, is a autocratic government and we don't know everything that's happening there. So it's a, it's very murky. But I mean, I, I think Emma, to, to. The overall picture of what's going on is not so hard to discern. The United States and Israel are bombing the bejesus out of Iran. They are attempting to afflict attrition on Iranian drone and missile launchers in order to make the country helpless. And they haven't succeeded. And moreover, Iran has figured out it may be a kind of self defeating strategy, but, but also an effective one of, of not only hitting at Israel or at US Bases, but of interfering with the commerce in petroleum and gas that comes out of the Persian conflict Gulf, which could throw the whole world into a deep recession.

[Sam Cedar]

All right, I want to, I want to get to that. Let's start, let's sort of like tick down this. Let's assume that, you know, sort of it is the case. I mean, we can see images, obviously we've seen images of like the, the petroleum rain. I don't know how else to describe it, which, you know, God knows the impact it's going to have on those 10 million people living in Tehran. I mean, I, you know, just in terms of like cancers down the road and whatnot. But based upon your understanding of Iran, how effective, like, and it seems almost impossible to, to, to glean what the Trump administration's goals are here. Israel. It seems a little bit more possible that they're looking for some type of like, Balkanization or internal strife in Iran which would theoretically preoccupy them for who knows how long. What, what are the chances of that? I mean, explain to us the difference between like the, the efficacy of the Iranian revolution in terms of creating a stable low to the ground regime, as opposed to what we would see in perhaps Latin American countries where you have like, sort of strong men come in and fall in military coups.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Yeah, Iran experienced a revolution in 1978. 79, which social scientists find that's, that's extremely important for the subsequent unfoldment of Politics is, it was a mass revolution. And in the aftermath they established a parliament which has representatives from all over the country. And in parliament they fight for their districts. So there's been enormous spread of education, rural schools, electrification, women's literacy has more than doubled. The whole country's literacy is quite high now. It is a mobilized population. And for all the discontents with this government, it's not like a one man dictatorship. There are regime supporters who form popular militias on the streets of all the cities in the country and there's a lot of internal spying and so forth forth, but there's also an ability to mobilize people. There are layers to this thing. So, you know, the Israelis think in ethnic terms and they, they hope to break Iran up ethnically, as they hoped to break Iraq up ethnically. But you know, 90% of the country is Shiite. And it's a little unlikely that, that appealing to these small Sunni ethnicities like the Kurds or the Baluch is going to do more than cause some local turbulence of a minor sort. And doing that also brings in the neighbors because Turkey is not going to be happy with a Kurdish resurgence in Iran. And Pakistan is petrified of the Baluts rising up because they'll rise up on both sides of the borders. So all you're doing is giving Iran allies. If you take that tact.

[Emma Vigeland]

Can you talk more?

[Sam Cedar]

I just want to just follow up on this one more question. We should say that the regime is obviously very brutal. I mean they've just killed anywhere from like, I don't know, it seems 4 to 10,000 people in those most recent protests. But what would do you do? We have a sense of how many people are finding, have bought into the sort of like the, the theocratic revolution that took place there.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Opinion polling such as it is, because it's difficult to do in an autocratic state, suggests that the, the, the regime's hardcore supporters are as few as 15%. People are not generally enthusiastic about this government. And we saw in mid January very masses of people in the streets. It looked like it was going towards a, a 1978 style revolution. And as you say, it was viciously repressed with very high casualties, they shot into crowds and, but, but now, you know, things have changed all around because if you, you can't come into the streets, if you're afraid of being bombed and the, the steam has been taken out of that movement and moreover, then your neighbors will look at you and say, what are you on the side of the Israelis? And so I think, you know, this Israeli and Trump intervention in Iran has squelched what, what was becoming a movement and quite unfortunately so it probably, it has strengthened the regime.

[Emma Vigeland]

I want to just go back to what you were saying about Turkey because Turkey is a NATO member and Israel has been threatening them openly. And then you also have, of course, the relationships with the GRCC countries in the United States that are, you know, financial in nature, perhaps less inextricable than our relationship with Israel, obviously. But Trump's financial involvement in the GRCC countries I think is also important here because it appears like Iran's strategy is directed towards perhaps targeting them because they know that they'll have more, it's more bang for their buck with drone attacks on GRCC countries than lobbing missiles into the Iron Dome that are most likely going to get intercepted. So could you expand on both Iran's relationship with Turkey and then also the other Gulf countries and how that changes the dynamic here?

[Sam Cedar]

Here?

[Professor Juan Cole]

Turkey, as you say, is a NATO member and they have used their levers in NATO to marginalize Israel. So because of the Gaza war, NATO is not conducting joint military exercises with Israel any longer on the grounds that Israel has violated the laws of war and is not a suitable partner. And the Israelis are furious about Turkey's access to the inner workings of Brussels and the way it can marginalize them. They would very much like to take Turkey down a peg. I think it's very difficult for them to do that because NATO has Article 5. An attack on one is an attack on all. If the Israelis attack Turkey, I think it will bring in at least some of Europe against, against Israel. So, you know, the Israelis talk big. They, you know, the cabinet members, not, not marginal people, people with real power. They'll talk about, oh, you know, eventually we may take Damascus or we have, we have to take Turkey down a peg. And Turkey is a huge country compared to Israel. There's 7 million Jews in Israel. They're, they're nearly 90 million Turks and they have an excellent military, high powered weapons and jets and, and the only thing they don't have is a nuclear weapon, but then they have an American nuclear umbrella. So I, I wouldn't pay too much attention to what the Israelis say about Turkey. It's just, it's, it's, it's threats. And the same thing can be said about Erdogan's empty threats against Israel from Turkey's side.

[Emma Vigeland]

But with regard to the Gulf countries, I meant, I, I said, I, I mixed up IRGC and I meant to say gcc, the Gulf countries Just clarifying that.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Yes, yes, the Gulf Cooperation Council. Yeah, you know, the Gulf Cooperation Council is, is the Arab oil monarchies. They're, they're largely, though they're Sunni and they have given the United States basically bases to protect themselves. Iran has been hitting those bases and in particular it has been hitting radar and communications technology. They're able, they've been able to take out. I'm an army brat, so I, I, I take no pleasure in saying this. I, I hope our guys are safe. But the, the Iranians have, have hit very expensive, hundreds of millions of dollars worth of radar and other communications technology on these bases in places like Kuwait in order to prevent the Americans from protecting Israel from Iranian missiles and drones. And they've been very effective at it. They have also hit hotels and airports and oil facilities in Bahrain and so forth. So it hasn't only been a matter of targeting the Americans the way the Iranians portray it. They've also tried to inflict some damage on civil society and the Gulf countries. But the main thing they've done is that the Gulf Arab states live on oil and gas. I mean, 20% of the world's supply of, of oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas comes out of, out of the Gulf. I don't, people don't, in America don't seem to understand how vulnerable we all are to this. It has been cut off effectively. Qatar, they don't have a place to store all this stuff. So if they can't export it, they have to stop exporting it. So the Gulf countries have been drawn into this by Iran as a way of punishing the United States. And it's going to work that we will, we will be punished.

[Sam Cedar]

Yeah, I mean, let's talk about this. I mean, you know, from what I've read, we're already two months out. If the war was to stop today, it would take at least two months for this to work its way through the system.

[Professor Juan Cole]

To

[Sam Cedar]

like you say you've got, if you can't export the oil, certainly can't store it in many of these facilities. You can store it to a certain extent, but also this becomes a vulnerability, I would imagine at one point. And so how much aside from like what this country, and perhaps the world is going to suffer from an economic standpoint, which is just going to increase both in terms of fuel and in terms of food, because a key, a couple of key elements of fertilizer is produced in the this region. What's going to happen? Like let's say this was to end tomorrow. And certainly it feels like Trump sort of is starting to realize, like, I may have gone in over my head here and there may be more problems than I thought this was going to be. But be that as it may, if it was to stop tomorrow, what is your sense of, like, how these GCC countries, are they going to say, you know what, maybe we shouldn't have these US Bases here like this? If the idea is that we were going to get protected. I mean, I think, you know, like, at one point their protection came from their own people, but it seems like they've sort of like figured that out, like, we're just going to have to disperse enough of the benefits to everybody so that as a regime we're secure. Then it became we're being protected from Iran. They clearly have basically marked themselves as a target because of this. So what happens? Are we going to see as much, like, I don't know, the UAE having comedy shows or whatever? Like, like, is it. Are we going to see a disinvestment?

[Professor Juan Cole]

Well, Dubai, I think, is what you're referring to with the comedy shows and the nice hotels and the. I've been Dubai. It's, it's a wonderful place and I really regret the damage being inflicted on it, but it's been economically destroyed. It's a finance hub and depends on expat labor. It depends on an illusion of security. And I don't know, this is, this is a heavy blow to it. I mean, it, it has had heavy blows before. The 2008 meltdown hurt it, but how it comes back from this is not clear to me. And so there may be permanent damage to the Gulf over this. I don't know what they're going to do about security going forward. There are two things to say. First of all, Iran is not going to relent until it gets a reset on its security. It's not going to put up with. It's not Gaza. The Israelis have this cynical phrase, they talk about mowing the grass. They used to bomb Gaza every once in a while. Iran is not going to put up with that. They're a big country and not a poor one. And they have capabilities which they're demonstrating. So they want to fight this to a point where everybody understands. You mess with us, us and you can't drive your car. You mess with us and you can't get in your car and go shopping for groceries. You can't go in your. Get in your car and go visit your aunt. You mess with us and your way of life is over. They want that message to get through, so they're not going to stand down until they get an understanding of that sort. And the Gulf, as you say, has put all of its eggs in the American basket. It some other countries have not like Djibouti, this small port on the Red Sea. They gave the Chinese a base along with the British and the Americans. And you may see something like that, that, that they may diversify their security arrangements. This whole thing could be an enormous boondoggle for the United States and a big boon for, for China.

[Emma Vigeland]

Well, I mean the, the fact that China already brokered these talks between the Iranians and the, a few years back is really important to note here. The other part is how this benefits, I think, both Russia and China because now you have these Asian countries that are going to be desperate for energy, for, for oil. They can go to Putin and he can charge them an inflated price. And on the China front, this gives them another, a partner in like the global, a, a global hegemon potentially eventually or superpower that is going to, you know, perhaps say we'll have your back in the way the Americans don't. They're just all in bed with the Israelis.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Oh, I guarantee you that at embassies in, in the Gulf, both the Russians and the Chinese are telling the people that the Americans are fickle and they're not really supporting you and they got you in all this trouble. You should come with us now. And I mean I've, I, I heard a Russian diplomat say these things to the Qataris nearly a decade ago already then, and, but, but it fell on deaf ears at that point. That's right, Emma. The other thing to say though is that China has been diversifying its energy. So 53% of automobile, new automobile sales in China last year were electric. And the energy analysts suspect that China has reached peak oil that every year from here on and it will use less. And this coming oil shock, because we haven't seen the real shock yet, the coming oil shock is a good argument for them to accelerate that process. They've got a program of buying up clunkers the way Obama did here. So they're trying to get the heavy gasoline used using vehicles off the streets and they've reduced their subsidies for the electric vehicles because it was costing the government a lot of money. But they may put them back or there may be other kinds of incentives. But I expect the Chinese to go even more heavily towards electrification of transport. Most oil is used for transport. So if China goes in this direction, you know, it Takes other countries with it. The Thais and the Indonesians and others are looking at these EVs and the Chinese EV technology is so far ahead of BYD.

[Sam Cedar]

Is that what it is? The, those things go 500 miles on a charge and they are significantly less expensive than your average U.S. car. And they're going to be making them in Canada soon too, right? I mean, within a couple of years. I mean. So, you know, I'm already thinking like, how do I get over to Canada and smuggle one of those in? But, but I want to get back to, to what you had said earlier in terms of Iran. This is the thing that I don't think has seemed to have seeped into American consciousness that we are at the point right now where we do not control the timeline of the, like, it's harder to tell because we haven't seen images coming out of Tel Aviv just you know, very sporadically. And the U.S. has, you know, the U.S. population has no idea of like, what's, what's going on in the Gulf. I mean, you know, the, it took three years before people knew, I think in Iraq that there were Sunni and Shia Muslims. And we're all waiting to see if Donald Trump decides to end the bombing. But what you're saying is that Iran is basically dictating the timetable of this from your perspective, like, how much pain, like, what are the pain thresholds that they can a, they impose on the United States and Israel and I guess to a certain extent the rest of the world. And where do you think that they'll decide? Like that's enough?

[Professor Juan Cole]

Yeah, well, as I said, I think they won't stop until they get, they're convinced that the world has gotten the message. It's, it's, they've taken our energy hostage. I don't know what you guys are paying for your, your gas bill last winter every, every month, especially in the cold snap in January, but imagine a doubling. Now, some analysts will tell you, well, the United States has its own natural gas from fracking and it has its own petroleum. And we mainly import from Canada and Mexico. So we're not dependent on the rest of the world. It doesn't work like that. It's one global market. I mean, it's segmented a little bit, but the price is, is tracked pretty closely between, say, Brent crude, which is the, the North Sea oil from Britain, and the West, West Texas, West Texas Petroleum, which is the American. You know, they go pretty much in tandem. So it's because it's one world market. If, if there's upward pressure on prices. It affects everybody. It doesn't matter whether you have oil or not. Not your oil becomes expensive because everybody wants it. If you take 20% off the market, it doesn't go, the price doesn't go up 20% because both demand and production are inelastic. It's very hard to produce a lot more oil, especially since the swing producers are in the Gulf. So you're going to compete for a lesser amount. Everybody's going to compete for it. And it's very hard to, to, to, to not use it. If you've already bought a gasoline car, then you got to buy gasoline. It doesn't, if you got to get to work that way, you don't have choices. You can't just absent yourself from that market. So demand is inelastic, supply is inelastic. If supply goes way down, then you've got more and more people competing for less and less oil.

[Sam Cedar]

It becomes a bidding war essentially for every gallon of gas.

[Professor Juan Cole]

It's exactly right. And it happens all over the world simultaneously. It is going to happen in the United States as well.

[Emma Vigeland]

Well, so in terms of like Iran dictating this timeline, then the question is how does Trump get to declare victory? Because we played a clip of Caroline Levitt yesterday saying that Trump can declare unilateral surrender and he gets to determine what that means, which basically means, like, they want to win the PR battle here. But I mean, if you have the son of Harmony as the leader and you still have the regime in place, I'm desperate for an off ramp for this, but I don't even know how Trump can spin this as a, even regime change victory at all because it's literally the son of the guy that he just killed.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Yeah, that's awkward.

[Emma Vigeland]

Yeah, yeah,

[Professor Juan Cole]

it's, it's as long as much about Khamenei is the, is the leader in Iran, Iran relations with, with the United States are going to be tough. They may improve when Trump goes out. But yeah, you know, I think the, the Iranians really, as you say, are the ones who will determine when all this ends. And it's not the, the Americans and the Israelis think, well, they have a limited number of missiles and missile launchers. We'll attrite them and after a while, they won't be able to do it anything. But it, it doesn't work like that. They have these Shahid drones which cost like 20 or $30,000 to make a piece. They can make 400 of them a week and they're making them as we speak. And they had a big stockpile of them. I don't know, 30,000, 50,000 is not clear. And many of them have, can be launched from under the sand. So it's very hard to see where they're being launched from. So they can go on hitting near neighbors, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and, and, and Saudi Arabia for a long time. You know, attrition is not going to happen anytime soon. And, and, and as I said again, the Americans don't understand who the Saudis and the Qataris really are in the world.

[Sam Cedar]

World.

[Professor Juan Cole]

They're like the world's country billionaires. You know how we're always complaining the billionaires are pushing us around and so forth. But these guys, I mean the Saudis have a trillion and a half dollar investment fund and trillion and a half dollars in, in, in reserves. They have like $3 trillion walking around money. This is not money that they need to build roads or run the country. I mean this is just, just loose change in their pockets. Imagine what you can buy with that. So they're not going to put up with this stuff. They're going to put enormous pressure on everybody to cut this out and to make a deal with Iran that everybody can live with. And of course they're peeved at Iran because Iran has attacked them and, and they're furious about it. But they also don't want to get involved in a war with Iran which they know they can't win. They're small countries, they have small populations. Iran can outlast them and it's nearby. Iran can even do guerrilla work against them. So they're going to be a major player in settling this thing. And they're very upset about Israel. People always think about them as potential allies of Israel. And the Israelis are hoping now the Iranians attack them, they'll swing around to Tel Aviv. I'm going to tell you they are furious. They are livid with Israel for dragging them into this, this and they're not going to have this going on, mowing the lawn every once in a while.

[Sam Cedar]

So in other words, is the Abraham Cords are those dead A B is, you know, MBS on the phone with Donald Trump and be like, thank you for letting me slide on the murdering of a journalist, but I'm going to need a little bit more, you need to shut this down type of thing. And well, and I guess like the third question is like, what was Israel thinking? Like I can understand frankly, Donald Trump people coming to him and saying you should do this. It's going to be Just like Venezuela, you're going to own part of Iranian oil and you're going to be, you're going to be the guy who beat Iran. And him going, okay, and just doing it and then finding out two weeks later, it doesn't feel right. But what, like, is Netanyahu just doing this just to keep Israel involved in a war for his own personal thing, or does he actually believe like, this could work out?

[Professor Juan Cole]

Well, Netanyahu is the victim of his own success. I mean, he's been in power a very long time and he has accomplished many of his goals over time. He, you know, has destroyed the Palestinians and reduced the Gaza peasants to, to fourth world status and deprived them of potable drinking water and so forth. And he's, he's whipped the Egyptians into shape. The Egyptians are basically cooperating with him and they're the major nearby military power and they, you know, the government in Syria, which was a, an enemy of Israel's, has been overthrown. Hezbollah has been taken down. So Netanyahu went from what he saw as victory to victory in not only is securing security for Israel because security actually in the long term would require good relations with neighbors, but in acquiring power and, and, and, and fear. And so he thought he can do to Iran what, what, what he's done to these others, to the other neighbors. And Iran is a different kettle of fish. It doesn't, doesn't work like that. He, he doesn't understand. Iran was. One of the problems with the Israeli elite is that although they are in the Middle east, they don't know very much about it. They're like, it's as if, you know, you had Polish people running the place. In fact, you know, of course, it's

[Emma Vigeland]

as if, it's as if the reality is what it is. But like, can you, can you talk more about Iran's, how Iran may react in terms of nuclearization that, you know, I know we probably have to let you go soon, but I, I was thinking about how the Kim Jong Un, right, that never promised to denuclearize, looking kind of good right now, especially when you see what happened when to Gaddafi after he made an agreement at the early part of the 21st century and then was impaled and assassinated. And now Iran, after they did a deal with the Americans, the JCPOA, okay, we're gonna bomb your entire leadership, kill 1300 people, including little girls, and also do kind of an act of ecocide and allow the bombing of this, these oil fields that are going to cause all this damage to the Population like what they are creating more incentives for more countries to create nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Oh, absolutely. Well, from the, from the inception when, when, when the French and the British connived at getting the Israelis a nuclear weapon, they set off an arms race in the Middle east on Iraq. Iraq had a nuclear program for this reason. And Iran, you know, this is controversial, but in my view, the Islamic Republic has never wanted a nuclear device. They were pursuing what is sometimes called the Japan option. As you know, Japan, everybody knows they have lots of plutonium and, and they're good at technology. So if they wanted to, to the Japanese could make a bomb pretty quickly. And everybody, and they hope that since everybody knows that it has a deterrent effect that North Koreans won't dare come for them because, you know, the response could be that, that Tokyo would suddenly be armed with nukes as well. So I think the Iranians were trying for that, but it didn't work. The, the Japan option didn't work. And they have a. Because it's a theocratic state. And Americans, oddly enough, don't understand this. Americans are much more religious than most industrialized democracies, but they still don't understand religion like the Iranians. The Iranian leadership always said it doesn't want a nuclear device because you can't use it without killing large numbers of innocent civilians. And that's against Islamic law of war. They genuinely believe that, that. And people push back against me. They said, well, they don't, obviously they don't genuinely believe it and they're hypocrites or they're lying or whatever. And I said, okay, does, does anybody believe that the Pope has a condom factory in the basement of the Vatican?

[Sam Cedar]

No, I don't.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Because we take him at his word that he doesn't approve of birth control. He issued an encyclical. Well, the leader of Iran, Khamenei, issued a. Numerous encyclicals that making an atomic bomb is illegal in Islamic law. Now they've killed that guy. And the way Islamic law works in Iran is that the fatwas or the considered legal opinions of a dead jurisprudent don't count. So now the new guy has to make a fatwa, and we don't know what that's going to be. And it could well be that Iran goes towards nuclearization. It has a lot of underground facilities. It still has a lot of highly enriched uranium. And I also think that the Saudis will, the Saudis are not going to put up with, with being vulnerable. You know, the Israelis bombed Doha and Qatar last September. And that set off alarm bells all in the Gulf that we need better protection. So they went to Pakistan and said, would you protect us? And the Pakistan has a nuke. And the Pakistanis said yes. But now the Saudis are calling Islamabad every day and saying, what are you doing to protect us? You promised you would. And the Pakistanis don't want to get involved. So I wouldn't be surprised, but the outcome of what Netanyahu has done is to push the entire region towards nuclearization.

[Sam Cedar]

Professor Cole, it is always incredibly informative, informative to speak with you. Not always cheery, I have to say, but I suspect we'll be turning to you in the coming weeks, hopefully not the coming months about this, but it seems conceivable. Really appreciate your time, folks. Should also check out informed comment. It has been a read of mine now for 20 some odd years, which is also a little disturbing. But thank you so much for your time today. I really, really appreciate it.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Thanks so much. Sam, it's great to see you and nice to meet you.

[Emma Vigeland]

Emma, nice to meet you as well.

[Sam Cedar]

All right, folks, that's it for the first half of the program today, which of course ended up being the first 2/3 of the program. Or I don't. 5/4.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Sure.

[Sam Cedar]

Of the program. 4/5 of the program.

[Matt Leck]

It's the first 5 parts of the program.

[Emma Vigeland]

Yeah.

[Matt Leck]

Mathematics.

[Sam Cedar]

Well, listen, hey, I don't know if you work with lumber at all, but that's not so crazy. Go in and try and ask for a one and a one. One and one fifth with. On. On a board. Ain't happening. Six fifths. Got his ass, huh? You got his ass.

[Reporter]

Bam.

[Sam Cedar]

Folks, in the meantime, it's your sport that makes this show possible. Lizzy, he can't even talk right now. You can't even make an argument anymore, can you? Matt's getting very emotional. Matt is getting an emotional breakdown right now,

[Professor Juan Cole]

folks.

[Sam Cedar]

It's your support that makes this show possible. You can become a member @join the majorityreport.com when you do not only get the free show free of commercials, but you also get the fun half and you can IM us. And I don't know if we'll be taking phone calls today, but hopefully maybe tomorrow. Maybe tomorrow we'll only have one guest since we had so many and we'll get into calls early there tomorrow. But it's your support that keeps this show keeping on. You can help this show survive and thrive by going to join themjorityreport.com and becoming a member. Also Just Coffee Co Op, our longest sponsor. I was probably saying that, you know, just coffee. 17 years ago, maybe it was when we had Professor Cole on Break Room Live. Oh, we had him on. He was a regular guest on the Majority Report on Air America.

[Emma Vigeland]

Wow.

[Sam Cedar]

Just Coffee Co Op. Fair trade coffee, hot chocolate. Use the coupon code. Majority get 10% off. Get the Majority Report blend. Matt, what's happening in the Mat Leck media universe?

[Matt Leck]

Yeah, Left reckoning. Coming up right after the show today, more Iran coverage because it's all David and I can think about, frankly. So we talked with Kuba of this is Revolution, who's got a new series, what Fresh Hell, over on that YouTube channel. Talking about the View. He's in Warsaw. So we talked about the View from Europe a little bit. So check that out. And we also, I. I double dipped on my senator from North Dakota, Kevin Kramer being saying, citing the Bible as a reason we need to do this war in Iran. So check that out right after the show today.

[Sam Cedar]

You're not sold on that?

[Matt Leck]

I'm pretty skeptical, actually. Yeah.

[Sam Cedar]

Uncommon merganizer. I just want to get this. I want to make sure that we get this in the first half of the show. I'm currently capping off some wayne Scotting with 5454 PVC. That's what I asked for at the lumber yard.

[Emma Vigeland]

That's me thinking maybe I should. Maybe I should go work there again. Actually, never know. Oh, wait. Oh, we're still on air. Damn it. Oh, we're not.

[Sam Cedar]

Three months from now, six months from now, nine months from now. And I don't think it's going to be the same as it looks like in six months from now. And I don't know if it's necessarily going to be better six months from now than it is three months from now, but I think around 18 months out, we're gonna look back and go like, wow.

[Professor Juan Cole]

What?

[Sam Cedar]

What is that going on? It's nuts. Wait a second. Hold on for. Hold on for a second. Emma. Welcome to the program. What is up, everyone? Fun path. No, Mickey, you did it. Fun half.

[Emma Vigeland]

Let's go, Brandon.

[Sam Cedar]

Let's go, Brandon. Bradley, you want to say hello? Sorry to disappoint everyone. I'm just a random guy. It's all the boys today.

[Kat Abu Zela]

Fundamentally false.

[Emma Vigeland]

No. I'm sorry.

[Sam Cedar]

Women. Stop talking for a second.

[Emma Vigeland]

Let me finish. Where is this coming from, dude?

[Sam Cedar]

But.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Dude, you want to smoke this?

[Sam Cedar]

7A.

[Emma Vigeland]

Yes.

[Sam Cedar]

Hi, Mickey. You're safe. Yes.

[Reporter]

Is this me?

[Kat Abu Zela]

Is it me?

[Sam Cedar]

It is you. Is this me?

[Professor Juan Cole]

Hello?

[Sam Cedar]

It's me. I think it is you. Who is you? No sound. Every single freaking day. What's on your mind? We can discuss free markets and we can discuss capitalism. I'm gonna go snow white. Libertarians.

[Professor Juan Cole]

They're so stupid.

[Sam Cedar]

Though common sense says. Of course.

[Emma Vigeland]

Gobbledygook.

[Sam Cedar]

We nailed him.

[Emma Vigeland]

So what's 79 plus 21?

[Sam Cedar]

Challenge. Man. I'm positively quivering. I believe 96. I want to say. 8 5, 7, 210855, 011 half. 3 8, 911.

[Emma Vigeland]

For instance. $3,400. 1900. 5 4.

[Sam Cedar]

$3 trillion.

[Professor Juan Cole]

Sold.

[Sam Cedar]

It's a zero sum game.

[Emma Vigeland]

Actually. You're making me think less.

[Sam Cedar]

But let me say this. You call satire.

[Emma Vigeland]

Sam goes satire on top of it all.

[Kat Abu Zela]

My favorite part about you is just like every day, all day, like everything you do.

[Sam Cedar]

Without a doubt. Hey, buddy. We see you. All right, folks, folks, folks.

[Emma Vigeland]

It's just the week being weeded out. Obviously.

[Sam Cedar]

Yeah. Sun's out, guns out. I. I don't know.

[Emma Vigeland]

But you should know,

[Professor Juan Cole]

people just don't like to entertain ideas anymore.

[Sam Cedar]

I have a question. Who cares?

[Professor Juan Cole]

Our chat is enabled.

[Sam Cedar]

I love it.

[Emma Vigeland]

I do love that.

[Sam Cedar]

Gotta jump. Gotta be quick. I gotta jump.

[Professor Juan Cole]

I'm losing it, bro.

[Sam Cedar]

Two o', clock, we're already late and the guy's being a dick.

[Professor Juan Cole]

So screw him.

[Sam Cedar]

Sent to a gulag.

[Emma Vigeland]

Outrageous.

[Sam Cedar]

Like, what is wrong with you?

[Professor Juan Cole]

Love you.

[Sam Cedar]

Bye. Love you.

[Emma Vigeland]

Bye.

[Sam Cedar]

Bye.