The Majority Report with Sam Seder

Episode 3597 – Iran Will Decide When This Ends; Justice Democrat in Illinois
Release Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Sam Seder
Co-Host: Emma Vigeland
Guests: Kat Abughazaleh (IL-9 Democratic candidate), Professor Juan Cole (University of Michigan)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the ongoing Iran war and its repercussions in the US and the Middle East, with a focus on who controls the endgame—spoiler: Iran. The hosts also spotlight the crowded Democratic primary in Illinois’s 9th Congressional District, featuring progressive candidate Kat Abughazaleh. The show’s latter half is a deep-dive with Middle East expert Professor Juan Cole into the reality on the ground in Iran, the region, and where US strategy may be faltering.

Key Segments & Timestamps

1. News and Commentary
   • [09:51–18:04] Trump’s bungling of the Iran war, the school bombing, and how the administration handles accountability.
   • [43:37–81:58] Interview with Professor Juan Cole on the Iran war: information blackout, regional strategy, and the shifting balance of power.
2. Interview: Kat Abughazaleh (IL-9 Candidate)
   • [25:09–42:34] Discussing the crowded Illinois primary, AIPAC money, progressive endorsements, and campaign tactics.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iran War: Control, Catastrophe, and Attempts at Exit

(w/ Professor Juan Cole)

Information Blackouts and Media Control

• The hosts and Juan Cole highlight how media access and transparency have deteriorated since the Iraq War, now compounded by satellite imagery delays (e.g., Planet Labs holding Middle East shots for 14 days) and censorship from all sides.
• “You know, back in Iraq war days, I could go on the Internet and look at local Iraqi newspapers ... I find it difficult to do that in Iran because they're also highly controlled. ... We've become more and more of an oligarchy, both with regard to socioeconomic affairs, but also with regard to media.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 44:49)

Trump’s Incoherent Messaging & Market Manipulation

• Trump’s public statements fluctuate between escalation and seeking an exit from the conflict.
• Oil prices reflect the administration’s erratic messaging, dropping dramatically when Trump implies the war might be over.

“He seemed to have gone to like two different places yesterday. But the bottom line is he was floating towards the end of the day that he felt like the Iran war was, was done....This is a guy looking for an exit ramp.” (Sam Seder, 10:01)

US & Israeli Accountability—The School Bombing

• The hosts dissect Trump’s deflections after a US strike killed more than 100 schoolchildren in Tehran. Trump tried to blame other countries, suggesting that Tomahawk missiles could have come from elsewhere, a claim debunked in real-time:

“Iran doesn't have Tomahawks.” (Matt Leck, 13:57)

• Memorable quote:

“It is very in keeping with Trump to admire the power of the weapon used to inflict pain and harm and death upon little girls. Seems to be something that he really enjoys.” (Emma Vigeland, 13:39)

Iran’s Leverage: “Iran Will Decide When This Ends”

• Professor Cole makes clear that Iran now holds the cards, primarily via its ability to disrupt oil markets globally and its proven resilience to bombing campaigns.

“If you take 20% off the market, it doesn't go—the price doesn't go up 20% because both demand and production are inelastic....It's going to be a bidding war essentially for every gallon of gas.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 68:19–70:22)

• Juan Cole emphasizes that Iran’s strategy is to inflict a pain threshold on the US, Israel, and GCC allies until a new security arrangement is recognized.

“Iran is not going to put up with that. They're a big country and not a poor one. ... They want that message to get through, so they're not going to stand down until they get an understanding of that sort.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 61:36)

Regional Upheaval: GCC & Turkish Dynamics

• Iran’s strikes have not only hit US military targets, but also GCC oil infrastructure, threatening the financial stability of Dubai and others.
• The Saudis and Qataris are furious at being dragged into the conflict, and Iran’s actions have devalued the Abraham Accords as they seek new security guarantees.

“The Saudis are not going to put up with being vulnerable....I wouldn't be surprised, but the outcome of what Netanyahu has done is to push the entire region towards nuclearization.” (Prof. Juan Cole, 81:14)

2. Illinois’ 9th Congressional District: Progressives, AIPAC, and Digital Organizing

(w/ Kat Abughazaleh)

A Crowded Progressive Field

• There are 16 Democratic candidates in the race; Kat was the first to announce before the incumbent’s retirement.
• The top three candidates are polling closely; Kat is the only one refusing to engage with AIPAC.

“Of those three, I'm the only one that hasn't met with or submitted a position paper to AIPAC, which I thought was a low bar, but apparently not.” (Kat Abu Zela, 25:19)

AIPAC’s Influence and Negative Ads

• APAC’s dark money is targeting progressive candidates with attack ads, including AI-generated smears against Kat.

“The one who is backed by AIPAC, they just released their second attack ad against me and it's just as dumb as the first one.” (Kat Abu Zela, 26:15)

Grassroots Funding & Organizing

• Kat’s campaign is funded by over 60,000 mostly small donors; average donation: $32.
• She implements digital outreach via live streams as an alternative to traditional “call time” with wealthy donors, engaging the base in a less transactional way.
• Her coalition includes Justice Democrats, Ro Khanna, the Sunrise Movement, and nurses’ unions.

Debunking Myths about Jewish Voters and Palestine Advocacy

• The district has a significant Jewish population, but Kat finds broad support for Palestinian rights and opposition to genocide.

“Jewish people have consistently been the greatest allies in fighting for Palestinian liberation. ... The idea that just because you are Jewish you have to support the actions of the state of Israel or that they're one and the same is so offensive.” (Kat Abu Zela, 32:08)

Policy Focus and Personal Narrative

• As a journalist/researcher on the far right, Kat emphasizes mutual aid, impeachment, progressive power-building, and a creative approach to stalling right-wing agendas.
• She’s a dues-paying DSA member and is facing trial for protesting ICE, framing state repression as a badge of honor for effective organizing.

“I've been indicted for protesting ICE. My trial is May 26th. ... There’s a reason this administration is coming after me and ... it’s because ... they don't want me in power.” (Kat Abu Zela, 35:50)

Notable Quotes

“It's obvious on day one what had happened and just the idea that it gets strung out this long is in and of itself a victory for them because it is meant to essentially amateurize the horrors that we've created.”
— Sam Seder, [16:58]

“Iran is not Gaza. ... They want that message to get through, so they're not going to stand down until they get an understanding of that sort.”
— Professor Juan Cole, [61:36]

“This is an opportunity to get a seat and sort of move that seat to the left ... I always encourage people to vote for the candidate that they most support. But no, I don't think any coalescing will happen.”
— Kat Abughazaleh, [30:01]

Memorable Moments

• Trump on the Tehran School Bombing:
  Avoidance and misdirection, trying to blame Iran for a US Tomahawk strike that killed children, drawing scorn from all corners.
• Market Reactions:
  Oil prices crashing and rebounding in real time based on Trump’s press conferences.
• Kat’s Campaign Tactics:
  Skipping donor call hours in favor of campaign livestreams and crowdsourced digital outreach.
• Juan Cole’s Sobering Assessment:
  Oil disruption will hurt the global economy for months, Iran is setting the pace, and US/Israeli force will not bring a quick end.

Conclusion

This episode presents a stark assessment of American power and the limits of war—both militarily and in public narrative. Iran is dictating the terms, and the damage from oil supply shocks is only beginning. The Illinois 9th race illustrates the pressures—and opportunities—for unapologetic progressives to build movement infrastructure under the shadow of AIPAC dark money. Episode ends with a call for member support and a warning: the next months—and years—may look very different.

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