← The Majority Report with Sam Seder
The Majority Report with Sam Seder
3616 - Trump's Polling Collapses; What Tomorrow's Election May Mean w/ Daniel Nichanian
01:07:15
Loading summary
Transcript208 lines
- [00:00]
Emma Vigland
You are listening to a free version of Majority Report with Sam Steder. To support this show and get another 15 minutes of daily program, go to Majority FM please.
- [00:14]
Sam Seder
The Majority Report with Sam Cedar. It is Monday, November 3rd, 2025. My name is Sam Seder. This is the five time award winning Majority Report. We are broadcasting live steps from the industrially ravaged Gowanus Canal in the heartland of America, downtown Brooklyn, usa. On the program today, founder, editor in chief of Boltz magazine, Daniel Nikanian. The races to watch tomorrow, in addition of course to the New York City mayoral election. Meanwhile, Trump tacos sitting in for Wednesday's SCOTUS oral arguments on tariffs says he's not going to go now. New York City smashes records for early turnout times 5. Also some good news from Mamdani. In those numbers, young people came out in droves representing 56% of early voting. Meanwhile, the US kills another random three people on the Caribbean Sea. Don't know much about them, very likely just fishermen. Meanwhile, Trump at an all time low in, or I should say all time high in unfavorability, all time low for his second term in favorability. And however, Democrats remain unable to gain that support. Shut down a day away from the longest in U.S. history. As court ordered snap benefits are supposed to be issued today. Elections across the country tomorrow may very well set the tone for the midterms and also may very well be a predicate for Trump's military deployments. Judge meanwhile, federal judge meanwhile halt National Guards deployment In Oregon, an RFK Jr. FDA top drug regulator, I should say RFK Juniors FDA top drug regulator resigns after unspecified ethical concerns. All this and more on today's Majority Report. Welcome ladies and gentlemen. It is Monday.
- [03:15]
Emma Vigland
Monday. Yeah, I know.
- [03:16]
Sam Seder
In my action says Emma Vigland.
- [03:18]
Emma Vigland
Hello.
- [03:19]
Sam Seder
Of the Majority Report.
- [03:20]
Emma Vigland
Yes, that's me. Nice to see you.
- [03:23]
Sam Seder
See you.
- [03:23]
Emma Vigland
It's going to be a very, very good week.
- [03:25]
Sam Seder
Hopefully, hopefully, hopefully there's a big election tomorrow. The numbers over the weekend in terms of early voting were just massive. We will get into that later in the program.
- [03:40]
Emma Vigland
And there's also just huge races across the country too getting a little less attention like Omar Fateh in Minneapolis.
- [03:48]
Brian
In Minneapolis, Omar and Robin. And there's other great candidates running in Minneapolis too. Minneapolis definitely lock in.
- [03:55]
Emma Vigland
Katie Wilson, Ranked Choice Voting Seattle. Yeah.
- [03:58]
Sam Seder
Ranked choice voting. Very important to keep in mind.
- [04:01]
Daniel Nikanian
Don't Rick Fry.
- [04:02]
Emma Vigland
Yes.
- [04:05]
Sam Seder
Yeah. Do we know like sort of how.
- [04:07]
Emma Vigland
That'S working or that's the strategy I believe is don't rank Fry.
- [04:14]
Sam Seder
We have other races. We have one that's right across the. Which way is it? The west. The, the river to our west. Well, actually it's right across two rivers for us here. Year in New Jersey. And I suspect that it's going to be an interesting compare and contrast relative to what happens in New York City. Now, of course, New Jersey isn't as blue as New York City is, but in some respects the choice between Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo, with all due respect to Curtis Lewa, and I actually mean that I appreciate him sticking in the race, I have far more respect for Curtis Lewa than I do for Andrew Cuomo. But the disparity, I should say the contrast between Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo seems to me to be as big as perhaps Mickey Sherrill and.
- [05:12]
Emma Vigland
Cittarelli.
- [05:12]
Sam Seder
Cittarelli. Cittarelli. I honestly, I don't know how it's.
- [05:15]
Emma Vigland
Pronounced, but they had to be monetized. Obama, I mean, it's, it's interesting because that race is closer than it should be and Sheryl is just like a standard mainstream Democrat and it's been a fairly uninspiring campaign. So they have to bring in Obama at the 11th hour and note who doesn't need Obama and who does. Like, I think there's a tale of these two campaigns showing when you activate voters on that level and you're not just operating along the margins with risk averse tactics, you're able to have more comfortability going into election day.
- [05:49]
Sam Seder
And I think that's going to be a big part of our conversation on Wednesday. I mean, but we'll see. We don't know how this is going to turn out in the meanwhile. It is, we are on day 34 of the government shutdown, 35 being the record. We're definitely going to blow through that and we'll have more to say on the shutdown. Again, supposedly we're going to see SNAP benefits restored as of today, but one never knows with this administration. But what is clear is that we have this dynamic where Donald Trump, and honestly, like this is no surprise. The images that are we see on a daily basis of Trump's Gestapo, masked paramilitary squads going around beating up people, shooting people, ramming people's cars. That's a new tactic they have. If you follow ice, which you're perfectly legal for you to do, they now apparently have been doing some stuff like, well, slam on their brakes where they may even reverse. Always good to have your video camera rolling in those instances. People see these images on top of the fact that inflation is in no way improved. On top of the fact that you have. Different sectors of our economy are getting slammed because of the tariffs. On top of the fact that as far as we know, job numbers are probably gotten worse. We don't know because of the government shutdown. But certainly we're seeing more data that suggests people are having to look for second jobs. We're seeing layoffs from places like UPS and Amazon and the run up, up in the run up to what is ostensibly the busiest season of the year for outfits like this. Right. Deliveries and retail stores. This is where they make their money for the year. That's why they call it Black Friday. It is supposedly the day when all these businesses go from cash outflows into cash inflows for the year.
- [08:12]
Emma Vigland
We had a. There was stats. I saw that Matt Brunig posted stats. Some of these graph this chart from Moody's analytics showing that the top. And we've said this before on the show, but confirming the top 10% of earners are now responsible for 50% of consumption in this country. It's just the economy. There's an entirely different economy for the top 10, 20% and everybody else.
- [08:36]
Sam Seder
20% is responsible for 80% of the consumption. This is the graph. I actually was, I actually like artistically speaking, I also sort of like the way I was. I saved this to maybe like just sort of frame it. But you can see that what's going on here in terms of the, of share spending. And you know, this is something that we've been talking about again, I think we mentioned this on Friday during the Biden, the Biden administration like the economic indicators that, that we have used to judge the health of the economy for a long time to the extent that they were accurate or not. You know, I think that's a separate question. There's a lot of questions about not even so much about being accurate, but as providing an accurate picture for what the economy is doing. But even in its own terms, those numbers seem to not tell us anything or tell us a lot less now because a smaller percentage of the population is driving so much of the economic activity that it is, it no longer means anything for the majority of people who are living in the country. And so you can't really assess. I mean, it's almost the same dynamic as, you know, when people would say United States is the place where princes and kings from around the world come to get their surgery.
- [10:19]
Emma Vigland
Yeah.
- [10:19]
Sam Seder
And like, oh, that's great. Except for that's not available for anybody else in the country. And so what's the value of measuring health care as a function of what it provides for? The richest 2% in the world in our economy, broadly speaking, is I think is in that same category. Now certainly, you know, they're saying this about the stock market, that a significant percentage, I don't know what it was, I think I read the other day. But like something like 80% of the gains have been a function of AI, which of course is at this point. It is not, it is not anything other than a speculative bubble in many respects.
- [11:04]
Emma Vigland
And so Nvidia's I think 15% of US market cap, that is not sustainable, that is not sustained and it just hit a record of valuation of I think 5 trillion. And that's all based on the bubble that you're talking about right now. It will burst. It will burst.
- [11:19]
Sam Seder
And, and so at the very least it does not give us a picture of what's going on in the country in terms of like how people's lived lives are. And so it is not a surprise that Donald Trump's numbers are in the toilet. What perhaps is more of a surprise is that it doesn't seem to be benefiting Donald Trump's supposed opposition. Here is David Chalian on cnn. It's not Harry Hampton, that guy, or Anton.
- [11:56]
David Chalian
The approval rating right now, John, sits at 37%. That is a low mark in this term for Donald Trump. His disapproval is at 63%. That's a high mark for his entire time as president, first and second term combined, I will say. Democrats and independents fleeing him, of course, Republicans still with him, which is why we'll see him doing these telerally tonight for the Republican candidates for governor. Take a look over the course of this year. You'll see down here, mid February, late February, he was at 47, 48% approval. That was a honeymoon period after the election. He's now been steadily going down all year long. Why? One of the reasons why it seems is that the American people think he's gone too far when using presidential power. 61% say so, way up from February. And deporting undocumented immigrants. 57% of Americans in this poll, John, say that he has gone too far in doing that. And in fact he said just the opposite on 60 Minutes last night.
- [12:53]
Sam Seder
You know, David, a great man called this poll sort of a mood ring for the country. And it does seem that voters are saying they're in a pretty bad mood.
- [13:01]
David Chalian
They are. It's a pretty sour American electorate out there. 32% of Americans say things are Going well in the country, John? 68%. 70 say they're going badly. This is clearly driven in large part by the economy, which is by far and away the most important issue for Americans. 47% say economy, cost of living, top issue. 26% say state of democracy. 10% say immigration. Seven, crime and safety.
- [13:28]
Sam Seder
Wait, wait, wait. Just go back. Just keep it up there and just go back a frame or two if you can. So we get. Yeah.
- [13:34]
Emma Vigland
The color of the mood ring.
- [13:36]
Sam Seder
Well, I mean, aside from like, I don't know why you have to say like the most important. Just say what's the mood point?
- [13:41]
Emma Vigland
I don't need to be bitchy about it.
- [13:43]
Sam Seder
Well, no, I'm saying why do they have to do that? Like treat everybody like they're four?
- [13:48]
Daniel Nikanian
I don't know.
- [13:49]
Sam Seder
But what I find fascinating is look at crime and safety is 7%. Now, healthcare, I imagine is going to shoot up because people over the past couple of days are getting their new numbers. And we'll talk about this later, but Brian even has a story of like.
- [14:10]
Daniel Nikanian
Of.
- [14:12]
Sam Seder
Someone he knows. I don't know how explicit you want. Deductible went from 500 to 6,000. That's. This is just catastrophic health insurance, which used to cost like 32 bucks a month because it doesn't cover anything unless you literally keep you out of bankruptcy. And even then it probably had a, an annual cap or a lifetime cap. Okay. So the deductible goes there and the premium goes from what? It goes from 500, which with tax credits was $40 a month, to $750 with no tax credits. Right. And that is. That was like we saw like the jump between 5. Whatever it was in 740 is the 26% that KFF had talked about. But without the subsidies, it's 100. Whatever it is. 114%. Yeah. Way more than that. Yep. All right, let's continue here. I just wanted to note that crime and safety thing because remember, we are two years out from that being like the story. Trent Agua is everywhere and they we're all going to die.
- [15:18]
Emma Vigland
Well, that's his. One of his best issues. He's underwater on every issue, basically. But crime and safety is, according to other polls, still where he's least underwater. But to give people a sense of what people's priorities are, at least on the national level, when you're talking about president, the presidency, crime and safety is going to matter more in a municipal election or in a mayoral race than it is going to matter for the president. So it's just like even on his best issue, that is a very low priority to people. And what is dragging his approval rating down the economy. There was a separate Washington Post Ipsos poll that showed that, that he's really, really underwater there. 62% disapprove of his handling of the economy to 37% approval. And that is the kind of thing that means something in terms of, like the overall popularity of the Republicans continue.
- [16:13]
David Chalian
With seven crime and safety. And so what does that mean in terms of Trump's policies affecting the U.S. economy? Well, 61% of Americans say it's, they've worsened the American economy. Only 27% say Trump's policies have improved the economy.
- [16:30]
Sam Seder
That's 61% is a tough number for Republicans facing election tomorrow and certainly for the president as he tries to improve his position heading into the midterms next year. Yeah, it does. That's very insightful. Let's look at the, those numbers from the. We've got it from the Post. Yeah. This is from the Washington Post ABC Ipsos poll. That is not the poll, but it is the way that Trump celebrated his numbers. I mean, this is, it's full on eat, you know, let him eat cake.
- [17:06]
Emma Vigland
This is what I was referencing earlier here.
- [17:08]
Sam Seder
And on that other poll, his disapproval numbers, I think were higher. So, you know, they're, they're around super high to amazingly high his disapproval numbers. But he's, you can go through this. I mean, we, we see that he's.
- [17:24]
Emma Vigland
Over 60% disapproval on the economy, managing the federal government and tariffs are his worst. He's ahead of where Biden is on Israel and Gaza. That is maybe actually besides crime, his.
- [17:38]
Sam Seder
Best still 52% disapproval still.
- [17:41]
Emma Vigland
But, and that is, I think, you know, the reason that he even has an advantage on that issue is because he did at the very least have the temporary ceasefire that keeps getting broken in the genocide. But it was something every, every issue is underwater. Every single issue. And the other. But the concerning part of that poll, which isn't in this graphic is, is that there was another question that they asked in terms of looking at the Democratic Party. And I know 11, I think you.
- [18:11]
Sam Seder
Can put this up.
- [18:12]
Emma Vigland
Yeah, it's, it's in the, the article 7 in 10 Democrat, 7 in 10 U.S. adults say the Democratic Party is out of touch versus 6 and 10 for Trump and the Republicans. Now, you made the great point before the show that a lot of that is driven by voters, Democratic voters themselves.
- [18:33]
Sam Seder
See the Democratic Party and apparently the polling shows keep going that the dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party is the primary thing is that they're not fighting Trump enough.
- [18:46]
Daniel Nikanian
Right.
- [18:47]
Sam Seder
And I mean, I think there, there's a lack of leadership.
- [18:50]
Emma Vigland
Yep.
- [18:51]
Sam Seder
Which is specifically the strategy that the Democrats are following. And, and, and their theory being that, like, well, at the end of the day, they're going to have to, you know, there's only two choices and they're going to have to vote for, for us. And that may work. It didn't work in 2024. No, I mean, it was the exact same strategy. Right. Like, we're not going to change anything. We represent, like, you know, stability. You don't want this crazy guy. Now, maybe, you know, when the crazy guy is there and you have the sort of secular party out of power, does. Well, maybe you can overcome the gerrymandering that's taking place. Maybe. But it's also possible that the Democratic voter has reached a point where they're sick of it. Like, you know, you look at the compromise numbers from. I've said this before in 2010, the number of Democrats that would say, do you want to compromise or do you want to fight the Republicans. Compromise would always win. And I think that's reversed now.
- [20:03]
Emma Vigland
Yeah.
- [20:04]
Sam Seder
Because it hasn't worked. You know, there's only so many times you can go to the table with the debt with the Republicans and negotiate with him. And, you know, I started just noodling around Schumer, you know, back in the 08 and 2010 and 2012 and 2016 archives, and he was so intent on negotiating all sorts of things and taking Ryan at face value and promote. I mean, it was just, you see where this all came from and desperately going to like giving more and more. And I will say to the credit of the Democrats today, they know they can't do this anymore because it's, you know, Trump is just out of control.
- [20:53]
Emma Vigland
Right. But it is one of the more underrated stories in American politics right now. Not on our show, but in the national press, which is the complete lack of credibility that the Democratic Party has with its own base right now. And that is why we're seeing the rise of Zoran Mamdani. It is why we are seeing the Graham Platner campaign soldiering on despite these efforts by the DSCC to do this oppo dump to clear the field.
- [21:18]
Brian
That's why Fateh has a chance against Fry in Minneapolis.
- [21:20]
Emma Vigland
Yes, it is the idea that Democratic voters do not believe that, one, that you're gonna fight Donald Trump, and two, that the candidates that you are selecting are going to beat Republicans because why would that be the case? Because we've seen it over and over again. And so the, the party and the like kind of more traditional players in the party are very slow to realize that they have basically lost the trust of a great majority of their base.
- [21:48]
Sam Seder
I mean if I was, if I was Janet Mills, I would be leaking that. I have a big fight with Gillibrand and Schumer to try and distance myself there. But.
- [21:57]
Emma Vigland
Well, she won't even release her medical records so I don't think she has much to leak at this point.
- [22:03]
Daniel Nikanian
Right.
- [22:04]
Sam Seder
I mean that's.
- [22:04]
Emma Vigland
She might be leaking. Swear.
- [22:06]
Sam Seder
Emma, how could you.
- [22:14]
Emma Vigland
Out of her diaper.
- [22:22]
Sam Seder
Let's let you thought that made it better?
- [22:24]
Emma Vigland
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I actually did think I made it better.
- [22:30]
Sam Seder
I can't even imagine where you were going with the first thing. Then in a moment we're going to be talking to Daniel Nikanian. He's the founder and editor of chief of Bolch magazine. Going to give us a breakdown as to what are the races that we should be keeping an eye on for tomorrow. Outside of the obvious ones, obviously. A couple words from our sponsors. This episode of Majority Report brought to you by Wild Grain. What is Wild Grain? It is the first baked from frozen subscription box for artisanal breads, seasonal pastries and fresh pastas. All their stuff bakes within 25 minutes. Obviously the pastas you boil. I got a squash ravioli that was absolutely delicious. I love it. It was fantastic. And well, let me go through what they say to say and then I'll talk about. Unlike store bought Wild Grain uses a slow fermentation process that's easier on your belly, richer in nutrients and antioxidants and made with simple ingredients you can pronounce. So all this stuff is like going to like an actual bakery that is, you know, I don't know, small time bakery, not like one that is, you know, shipping stuff that has to stay on the shelf for like six weeks in your, your supermarket. Wild Grains boxes are fully customizable. They're constantly adding seasonal and limited time products for you to enjoy. Right now they have tear and share cranberry pecan rolls, parmesan herb biscuits and apple pie bites. About a month or two ago I got a bunch of like apple cider donuts and pumpkin spice rolls. This is killing me to even talk.
- [24:23]
Emma Vigland
I know. Those apple cider donuts were amazing by.
- [24:25]
Sam Seder
The way and had a bunch of croissants and I was baking those up for Saul. I mean like it's like, when do you get a chance to get like a warm croissant? They're fantastic and great for the holiday. You want to make fresh baked bread for Thanksgiving. This is the way to do it. Because it comes frozen, pop it in the oven for less than 25 minutes, comes out, and it is honestly the best fresh made bread you've ever had. Super convenient, super delicious. I gotta say, those cranberry pecan rolls, I can't get out of my head now. It makes you look like an expert at baker, but it also, you know, like, again, you provide great stuff and it's also a great gift going into both Thanksgiving and Christmas. For a limited time, Wild Grain offering our listeners $30 off your first box, plus free croissants in every box when you go to wildgrain.com majority to start your subscription. You heard me. Free croissants in every box. That's $30 off your first box when you go to wildgrain.com majority. Honestly, check this out. Also, all the packing, I know this has nothing to do with it, but all the packaging stuff was very easy recyclable, which always is important to me. Also sponsoring the program today, Cozy Earth. Before the show, Emma was talking about her Cozy Earth pajamas. And it was completely insane, to be fair. Yes, go ahead, you can tell the story.
- [26:21]
Emma Vigland
Okay. Well, I'd gotten these as gifts for people and I got rave reviews and I just got my first pair and I'm a little OCD about, you know, some things and neurotic some things. So, you know, issues with controller, superstitions, things like that. Got it. Okay. So I can only sleep in no matter what the weather is, no matter a big T shirt and shorts or boxers. That's all I can do. I can't sleep in pants. I literally will not fall asleep the first time. I've fallen asleep in like a pajama set. It was the short sleeve and long pants. In like a really long time was those Cozy Earth pajamas that I tried over the weekend and I couldn't believe it. So I've broken my obsessive compulsiveness. And I have to thank Cozy Earth because it's so dang comfortable.
- [27:06]
Sam Seder
That is everything that I think about the universe. Cozy Earth is going to be very, very excited that their new tagline is break your ocd. I will say, honestly, I mean, that conversation started because I was like, I really have gotten obsessive about my Cozy Earth sheets because they are really, honestly comfortable and temperature regulating this time of year is very difficult. Because they start to turn the heat on in the buildings.
- [27:39]
Emma Vigland
Yeah.
- [27:40]
Sam Seder
And, and then it's just like a balancing act because you can't, you can't finesse the heat. You got to open up the windows and blah blah, blah. It's all but all their stuff, I mean my favorite is the sweatshirt and I mean the hoodie. But I don't know, it's, it's like a competition for, for itself. But all of their stuff is made out of viscose, which is from bamboo. They also have something called the bubble Cuddle blanket. I have not tried this but apparently it's the ultimate holiday gift for cozy moments. Bubble Cuddle blanket combines comfort and style with its distinctively textured bubble design and ultra soft faux fur feel. Featuring an extended plush pile in midway construction. Perfect for snuggling by the fire, movie nights with family or adding a touch of luxury to any room. A gift that makes every day feel like a special occasion. Look, here's the bottom line. 100 night sleep trial. You try them out. If you don't love them, you return them. Hassle free 10 year warranty. Because you feel this level of comfort, you're going to want it to last a decade. Believe me, I have had sheets that have worn out. And thanks to Cozy Earth for sponsoring this episode. Black Friday has come early at Cozy Earth. Right now you can stack my Code Majority report on top of their site wide sale giving you up to 40% off in savings. That's cozyeart.com's code is majority report for up to 40% off in savings. These deals won't last. So start your holiday shopping today. If you get a post purchase survey, be sure to mention you heard about Cozy Earth on the Majority Report. Wrap the ones you love in luxury with Cozy Earth. Great gifts. Honestly, great gifts. Very reasonable. All right, quick break. When we come back, Daniel Nikakian, founder and editor of Boltz magazine. It's we are back. Sam Cedar, Emma Vigland on the Majority Report. Want to welcome to the program Daniel Nikanian, founder, editor in chief of Bolts magazine. I should say welcome back, Daniel. I think we've been having these conversations now for many years. Many, many years. Yeah, I think it predates bolts actually. But be that as it may you put out, I don't know if there's anybody anywhere who puts out a more comprehensive voting guide for races that I know you don't quite go down to dog catcher, but pretty close and, but, but ones that also have become increasingly important. I mean remember you did this during the, the first Trump administration because the relationship between sheriffs very often and ICE is hugely important. And it's become even more important when the potential of ICE as a federal militia, I don't know what else, you know, secret police grows, the disposition of various local leaders is going to become a lot more important. So on top of obviously the big races that we know about, this stuff is really helpful and important. So that's my long winded way of saying welcome back to the program.
- [32:34]
Daniel Nikanian
Thanks for having me.
- [32:35]
Sam Seder
Again, let's start with obviously we have a big race in New York City. Everybody, I think, who listens to this program knows that we got a let's, why don't we start with government governors and then we'll work our way down and the implications of these races. And we'll work our way down because we have a governor's, a couple of governors race, they're going to be important. And also a couple of state House races that are going to be really important in terms of control. Where do we go with the governor's races?
- [33:09]
Daniel Nikanian
Yeah, well, I think first I want to emphasize what you're saying. I think the point of this guide of this conversations we're having is to sort of help break down for people that state elections, local elections, of course, have a lot of stakes that are very contextual, very local, but for the very same issues for which you care about the federal government, the White House, immigration, housing, criminal justice, voting rights, the threats to democracy, that's really where so much is happening at the local level, at the state level. And that's very hard because there's so many states, so many cities, so many counties, and where am I going to look? What are the stakes? What are the hotspots? And so that's sort of where we break down. And the funnel this year starts right with governor races in Virginia and in New Jersey, in both cases, open races where the governor is not running for reelection, one Democrat, one Republican incumbent heading out that Democrats seem to be favored at this moment to win both races, which will be a flip in Virginia and a hold in Jersey. Obviously, there is some suspense, as people who follow this can know, maybe a little more in New Jersey than in Virginia, but heading into the final day will be an upset for Republicans to pull off either seat, I believe.
- [34:34]
Sam Seder
And part of this story, too, I should say, obviously, in some weird ways, the more local you get, the more material the implications of who gets elected on the, on the, on the lived experience of people in these localities, particularly in light of all the ice stuff and other issues and who's going to make up for cuts in federal funding and whatnot. But we also have sort of like a, a narrative thing that's happening within the context of the Democratic Party. We were just talking about polling where Democratic voters in particular, I mean, Republicans are always going to be this way, but Democratic voters and independents perceive a lack of a fight by the Democrats but also a lack of leadership. And it seems to me that at the very least in New Jersey that's a Hopefully it doesn't prevent Mikey Sheryl from winning, but there does seem to be like a drag on her campaign.
- [35:42]
Daniel Nikanian
I mean, we're, it's sort of what, what we're sort of seeing different versions of the Democratic Party in New York City. On one hand where the left is ascendant and might win, and the other hand, more centrist incoming governors perhaps in Virginia. I think there's going to be a lot of debates. We're already seeing a lot of articles about which version of the party is going to win. We're seeing some back and forth exchanges between the Democrats in Virginia, Democrats in New York City. At the end of the day, these are very different places, very different electorates as well. And it's usually often been there's been an expectation that activists, for instance during the BLM protest, that activists in Minneapolis or New York or Philadelphia or wherever were thinking about their police practices should be thinking about the big picture of what will help Democrats win or lose at the national level. That's just not usually how this works. People who are doing activism in Minneapolis don't necessarily number one concern is not who's going to win in suburban Virginia and vice versa in a way. So that's sort of what we're seeing play out. But you know, some of it is also you mentioned a few times immigration and governors have very strong authority to limit what state and local enforcement can do with regards to that. There's also somewhere where we're going to see perhaps differences in how Democrats played out. We've seen in New Jersey and Virginia the Democratic candidates have said they'll sort of keep in place existing productions in New Jersey or strike down some of what the Republican governor has done in Virginia, but have been cautious about going very far and promising new protections. Whereas in New York, in New York City, of course, there's a very different, very different point in the campaign there on how people are talking about immigration.
- [37:37]
Sam Seder
Let's go to state judges in Pennsylvania is I guess, the biggest sort of like state judges race. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court is been very important in terms of like redistricting questions. And I mean we've seen this also in places like Wisconsin. There are three Democratic justices up for reelection in Pennsylvania. What are the implications of that? Could things flip? Right.
- [38:14]
Daniel Nikanian
I mean it's the race I'm most surprised hasn't gotten more attention at the level of the other ones because it is the swing state. It's the biggest swing state in the country. It's a Supreme Court that has had a lot to say in the past few years on election law specifically including rejecting President Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election at the time. So a big court and there are three Democrats running to stay on the court. And usually those are pretty sleepy elections because Pennsylvania has what's called a retention election. So it's not candidate A versus candidate B. It's just voters go and vote yes or no on keeping someone on the court. And those usually don't catch fire because there isn't an opponent. The default sort of is yes, but conservatives like in April, sort of like, oh, a big opportunity to change the makeup of this court and they've invested a lot more attention on these three races. So Democrats right now are 5:2 majority. And if Republicans were able to oust them, oust the three justices, it would erase Democrats edge on the court effectively to two, two and then there'd be a whole multi step fight about how to deal with the vacancies. But what's at stake really is the majority that Democrats have right now on the state Supreme Court of the biggest swing state in the country.
- [39:41]
Sam Seder
I saw Obama tweet out about this race, I think, which gives an indication that maybe, I mean, I imagine, I don't know this for a fact, but I imagine the DNC has a list of like of elections they're worried about and that's the ones that they give to Obama and say tweet about this.
- [40:04]
Daniel Nikanian
But you know, that itself in a way it's so not surprising that this race, given the stakes I just unpacked, would be on that list. I think for anyone who just follows this stuff, even going back to 2023, 2021, 2020, like State supreme courts who really are under the radar even when the stakes made so much sense for people to think about. I think what's really changed this on the one hand is the 2020 election and again Trump's effort to overturn that and state courts getting involved and then of course the Dobbs decision and how important that made state courts on the fight for abortion. And that has made these institutions that were always important just a lot more visible.
- [40:44]
Sam Seder
And I would add the Wisconsin race in the spring that Elon Musk went in and dumped millions of dollars into. And that really drew a lot of attention to the, you know, the relevance of this. But Democrats have always been, it seems to me, pretty bad when it comes to pointing out the relevance of, of court of court elections or just the implications of elections on courts. But let's go to legislative chambers. How many majorities are up in play across the country?
- [41:23]
Daniel Nikanian
So the two main places to watch, the two main chambers to watch are the Virginia House, the Virginia House, which is currently 5149 for Democrats. So it's very small majority. Democrats are trying to expand it. And if things go their way tomorrow, it looks like they'll be able to though as is obvious from the fact that the majority is so narrow, there is a chance, an outside chance of Republicans getting back to the chamber. But that's the most important in a way because if Democrats get to governorship, as we were talking about, they want full control of the state government. They want to be able to pass laws. They want to be able to, to pass laws on any issue people can think about. And that's the state House that's going to decide it. The other one is in New Jersey. The state House is also at play there. Every single seated at play Democrats have a large majority there. It'd be very, very surprising if Republicans flip it. That's not really on in conversation. But the exact there's like conservative, conservative Democrats in New Jersey, there's no progressive Democrats. That's a state with a large range of Democratic lawmakers. So just how easy it is for Democrat to pass laws to pass reforms, that's also at stake tomorrow. And the last, the third majority at stake is in Minnesota. In Minnesota, there's a few special elections that could possibly flip an extremely tight chamber. It would take a big upset for the special election to go where we to flip seats and for the chamber to flip. But it's still something that people should be watching.
- [43:03]
Sam Seder
Tomorrow we're talking the Minnesota Senate.
- [43:05]
Daniel Nikanian
Minnesota Senate, yes.
- [43:06]
Sam Seder
Okay. And so the big one, I mean there are all three irrelevant obviously. But it's also there's in addition, again, I guess we should say this every time in addition to the material implications of retaining a majority in the chamber or flipping a chamber is what it signals to Republican lawmakers who might be like running for Congress, oh, I'm in trouble. Like in these districts are There particular like, districts around the country that stick out for you as sort of like ones that. That frontline Republicans would be looking at and go, oh, shit, I'm in trouble.
- [44:03]
Daniel Nikanian
That's a great question. Just yesterday or over the weekend, we saw a Republican in Ohio who was running for a US House seat drop out of the race because he thought it was no longer a winnable race. And that was a district that just changed a little in the new map, Ohio Pass, but that had voted against Trump by only three points. So that's exactly the sort of thing you're asking, where could there be results where the mood shifts and candidates start changing their behavior, changing their decisions? I'm gonna go very down on the ballot. And just the first thing that came to mind, one thing we've talked a lot in recent years, is the gains that Trump or Republicans have made among voters of color, among Hispanic voters in particular. The immediate thing that came to mind is there was a lot of attention in 2023 when Republicans flipped a council seat in the Bronx. That was the first time they had won a City council seat in the Bronx since the 80s. And that at the time, created a lot of headlines about, oh, is this like, is this a sign of the things to come? And obviously, Trump made big gains in 2024, as we all know, and that seat, for instance, is up for grabs this year. Again, the Democrats are trying to slip it back. You know, it's not going to affect what's happening in the City Council, but there are a lot of seats like that that people will be watching as an indication of whether the trends we saw in 2021, 2023, are going to. Are going to be.
- [45:30]
Sam Seder
What seat is that? Do you remember what the. What.
- [45:32]
Daniel Nikanian
What number it is Number? I can tell you, in the three.
- [45:37]
Sam Seder
Spreadsheets that are right in front of.
- [45:39]
Daniel Nikanian
You, it is just three seconds. The 13th district in the Bronx. So that's an example, just as the kind of thing, blurry watching. I mean, obviously the margins in Virginia, in suburban Virginia, places that have been very affected by the cuts to the federal government will be. People will be watching for the effect of the shutdown and various things of that nature. And then a final one, I'll just flag again, at the very local level, there's executive races at the county level in some places that shifted dramatically. Right or blue to the right in 2024, in Pennsylvania swing counties, as well as on Long Island. And those are places that people will be watching as sort of on the periphery, on the margin, places where Republicans sort of surprised in 2024 and whether Democrats can wheel some of that back.
- [46:35]
Sam Seder
Okay, that's interesting. I mean, I would imagine the Bronx seat, the 13th district, there's 51, I think it's 51 city council members in New York. But I would imagine the Bronx one's going to be a little bit tainted or maybe not. I mean, it may end up giving us a very accurate picture. But by this mayoral race, which is breaking all records, at least for early voting, and I suspect it might break records. I mean, look, it broke records in the primary, it's broken records in the early voting. I suspect it's going to break like general election, general election numbers, I suspect. And so that may be, it may be a sign, but it may be one of those things where it's tough to know whether it was a sign until we're looking in retrospect.
- [47:28]
Daniel Nikanian
I mean, I think it's all like that in an off year because obviously no turnout is not what it was in 2024 anywhere, even in a very high turnout election by the standards of local races. And that is always a huge caveat, I think when you're talking about whether the vibes change and whether that has effect on how people behave, then who knows what people. That's just so much a matter of what people talk about, what the headlines mean. Another one to just throw in, Sam, is Georgia has two statewide races on the ballot. Extremely unusual. Georgia doesn't usually have statewide races on an off year. So who turns out where is very much the question mark. But Democrats haven't won a non federal statewide race like a state government statewide race since 20 years ago in Georgia. And they have a shot tomorrow if the Democrats flip those statewide seats. Is that a sign that Georgia is like anchored blue? Of course not. The number of voters can be so low compared to 2024. But in terms of the, in terms of the conversations it could generate in the state, in terms of the confidence it could give to Democrats want to run and whether it affects Republicans. Those are all, those are all fair, fair questions to ask.
- [48:43]
Sam Seder
Are there what are the elections that stick out for you in terms of ice? Because now we have detention centers that are growing up across the country in various areas. It seems to me like as much as ever the relationship between a lot of places, it's the sheriff that deals with the county. The relationship between the local authorities and ICE becomes really, really relevant because I think the flip side of how these elections could implicate the actions of the Democrats going into the midterms and the actions of frontline Republicans who might say, like, you know, we already have one or two who have broken off just in the past couple of days about SNAP benefits and about keeping the government open. It also might influence the thinking of the administration of like, okay, our plan to have a full on gestapo by June. We've got to push that up to April. I mean, so what, what races in your mind are the most relevant in the perspective of like the relationship between local leaders and ice?
- [50:05]
Daniel Nikanian
That's a great question and I'm glad you're asking me and talking about it in part because it feels like not many people are including in the Democratic Party. And I say that because a big theme of our coverage at BOLT this year was in January we identified some of the sheriff races that where there was ICE collaboration was quite literally at stake because a sheriff who runs the jail, who runs local patrols was actively collaborating with ice. Places that are sort of swingy or blue leaning. And we sort of were keeping an eye on them all year. And in most cases no one filed to run against an incumbent Republican sheriff in the places we had already at the beginning of the year identified. And some of our coverage this year has been to ask why. I think to ask what's going on. And I'm thinking of upstate New York or in southeast Virginia, places that either were swing last year or voted for Harris, a Republican sheriff who contracts with ice, and then he's running for reelection unopposed in the couple of places I'm thinking of. So that's, I mean, just pose. That has like the context first where this is still flying under the radar. In most cases, sheriffs are coasting on a post. One exception to that. And sheriffs again are placed to focus. They have a lot of authority to just contract with ICE without any control of the rest of the local government is Bucks county in Pennsylvania comes to mind. It's actually a large county in the suburbs of Philly, very tight in federal elections. There's a Republican sheriff there who's sort of going rogue and doing a little more probably than is than the sheriff is even allowed under local government rules. And there's currently like a fight between the county commission and the sheriff. But that's a place where clearly there's a contract with ice that's new. A Democrat is running, saying he wants to end the contract. That just kind of captures the sort of stakes we were expecting to see elsewhere. The other place I would look, maybe not as under the radar, but the governor's races are very clearly the stakes of what law enforcement at the state and local level does with ICE is very much at issue, especially in New Jersey, where the Republican candidate has really made it one of his core promises that he will immediately end the protections at the state level that the outgoing Democrats have put in place to prevent local sheriffs and local police departments from contracting with ice. So he has said he's going to go in and end that. So that's a very direct stake on ICE collaboration that's going to affect what the police. Police departments do and maybe final say, you know, in both in New Jersey. The reason the Republican candidate can even say this is that Democrats did not pass a law that protects that. A law that protects immigrants and that and that and that bans sheriff and police from. From doing certain types of contract a law as we've seen in other blue, blue states like Illinois or California. So New Jersey Democrats did not pass that law. And that's why it's really still hinging on who occupies the governor's mansion and whether they can do an executive order. So one thing to think about, no matter what happens tomorrow, is whether a law like that passes in New Jersey.
- [53:22]
Sam Seder
All right, lastly, mayors, obviously. Big race in New York City. There's a big race that we've been following at least in Minneapolis.
- [53:34]
Emma Vigland
Seattle too.
- [53:36]
Sam Seder
Yeah. Tell us where some. You think it's like the most relevant mayoral races that also sort of like cross reference with it it being contested? I mean, I think in Boston, I think Wu is running again, but I don't think there's any real race there. It sounds like.
- [53:52]
Emma Vigland
Well, the Patriots owner ended up. Oh, yeah, right as his kid ran.
- [53:57]
Sam Seder
Oh, he dropped out and.
- [53:58]
Emma Vigland
He dropped out. Yeah.
- [54:01]
Sam Seder
Yeah. So that.
- [54:01]
Emma Vigland
She's very popular too.
- [54:03]
Sam Seder
That's what I'm saying. She's good. She's. She's gonna walk away with it. But where, where are the contested areas and where are the races that may implicate a statewide election? I mean, I imagine, you know, Mamdani is gonna. Could very well implicate the Hukul Delgado race, but that's gonna be more how they get on. But I would think in a small state, someone running in a big city, there could be some real implications in terms of the dynamic of the state in the midterms.
- [54:43]
Daniel Nikanian
Yeah. I think you already named the races that I would have started with. So the races you named Seattle, Minneapolis and New York and would have been Boston were sort of the four races where there was a battle within the people who run as Democrats between left and Center. One of them is done because as you were saying, Emma, the challenger in Boston dropped out. There's actually no one on the ballot tomorrow against Wu. So that one is done. And the other three are sort of that test of left versus center that's happening. And in many other races for mayor, sometimes there's a Democrat or Republican like in places like Pittsburgh. Or Pittsburgh or Cleveland. But they're such blue cities that we're not. No, they're not going to be a lot of competition there. I mean, one, one thing I will flag is that the half brother of JD JD Vance is running for mayor in Cincinnati against the incumbent. He's the half brother of events, is a Republican. The incumbent mayor is the Democrat. The Democrat is very favored to win in a blue city. So we're seeing that sort of, we're seeing that all around. There's a lot of states, a lot of races in upstate New York. They're actually interesting because they were very competitive in the primary and in Buffalo and a few other cities, we saw the progressive wing win races in the primary and they're very favored to win now in the general election. But we shouldn't, you know, just, just because the race was, was. Just because the race seems over in the primary doesn't mean that tomorrow is sort of the day that these people are going to win properly and, and build power. I think in New York that's particularly interesting because you were just saying that a win by, by the left in Mamdani in New York City would, by Mamdani, sorry, would affect state politics. He's going to have a allies coming into office in January in a bunch of other cities in New York State in the sense that there are people who sort of in the progressive end of local coalition that are going to come in office in New York State, cities which could shift conversations at the state level around the budget around and various sorts of conversation.
- [57:08]
Sam Seder
That's interesting. That's good to know. Let's hope you're right. Daniel Nikanian, founder, editor in chief of Bolts magazine, folks, should head over there and check out your cheat sheets. They're right on the front page. Just really helpful stuff. Really appreciate the reporting you've been doing about carcel reform and others as well over the years. Always a pleasure.
- [57:42]
Daniel Nikanian
Thanks so much. It's always fun.
- [57:44]
Sam Seder
All right, folks, we're going to head into the fun half of the program and have some fun. Just want to remind you a bunch of things. First of all, we got a discord. You can check that out. Majoritydiscord.com well over 15,000 people. We also, we have best of's at the end of the year. And now, ladies and gentlemen, because it's November, we begin our official request for the best of. Now here's the thing. It's the best of 2025, but you can include December in November of 2024 in your suggestions because. So the election, what's that? The presidential election. Yeah. Well it might be a little bit scared scarce around then depressing shows. Exactly. But so have at it. Send us an email@mainvancereportersmail.com put in the subject line best of and with your suggestions and we will tally them. Brian becomes a CPA for the final month of the year so that he looks at this stuff and it's official. It's all in a lock box. There's no. He's got fiduciary duties to make the best of. Be legit. Exactly. So excited. I will also say happy birthday to this show.
- [59:28]
Emma Vigland
Oh wow.
- [59:29]
Sam Seder
There's a lot of different like sort of days that we mark as anniversaries around here because you know the show started on Air America but this iteration of the show, I am told by Kyle started on November 2nd in 2010. And so this is the 15 year anniversary was yesterday.
- [59:54]
Brian
Was that like on election day or was there anything related to.
- [59:58]
Sam Seder
I think it was.
- [59:59]
Emma Vigland
Didn't we do the 20 year anniversary last year?
- [60:01]
Sam Seder
That was the 20 year anniversary of the show.
- [60:05]
Emma Vigland
Extremely confusing.
- [60:06]
Sam Seder
That's what I'm saying. I prefaced it by saying that.
- [60:08]
Daniel Nikanian
Yeah.
- [60:09]
Sam Seder
I don't understand. How was there an election on November 2nd? Maybe there was.
- [60:15]
Brian
To go back and listen in 2010.
- [60:17]
Sam Seder
I don't remember. I don't remember.
- [60:20]
Emma Vigland
Okay.
- [60:21]
Brian
The Tea Party midterms. That's right.
- [60:25]
Sam Seder
I, I guess that's what it was. I don't remember. I don't really remember but I figured I'd note that. So elections were on November 2, 2010.
- [60:35]
Daniel Nikanian
Oh.
- [60:35]
Sam Seder
So maybe that's when I started the show that that maybe made some sense.
- [60:38]
Emma Vigland
Well, that was a bloodbath.
- [60:41]
Sam Seder
Didn't go very well.
- [60:42]
Daniel Nikanian
Yeah.
- [60:43]
Brian
Rough start.
- [60:44]
Sam Seder
Yeah. Hasn't been necessarily glide path since then.
- [60:48]
Emma Vigland
No, no. Also today I was just reminded looking at the dates the final day for the pre order for the majority report shirts on shop.majorityreportradio.com so if you. And hat and charcoal hat. So limited edition. It's the final day that you can order pre order the M. Majority report shirts and hat.
- [61:10]
Sam Seder
I would get on that folks. I would get on that. That is a huge. I know there's a lot of couples that listen to this show. It is a great gift.
- [61:23]
Emma Vigland
Yes.
- [61:24]
Sam Seder
It is basically a way to say to your partner, I see you. I see you.
- [61:30]
Emma Vigland
I support your interests.
- [61:31]
Sam Seder
I support your it's like I know you know who you are as a person and I did that by a getting your size right and getting in a majority or you get matching. Yeah, you could also do that. I would probably go with different colored shirts. But both wearing the shirt and you wear this wear the hat.
- [61:51]
Emma Vigland
Heterosexual couples, you could get one for Sam. The male can wear the Sam or majority of portrait classic and majority for the woman.
- [62:00]
Sam Seder
You could do that reverse.
- [62:02]
Emma Vigland
In this topsy turvy leftist world that we're trying to create where gender means.
- [62:07]
Sam Seder
Nothing, there's a whole lot of different things. Things make everyone trans.
- [62:11]
Emma Vigland
Yes.
- [62:12]
Sam Seder
Also gender for everybody. You can support this show by going to jointhemajorityreport.com become a member. When you do, you not only get the fun half, but you get free half free of commercials and you can IMs and you can also support the show. If you're watching us on Twitch, throw us your prime subscription. You already paid for it. You can just like click a button and we will get the that month's like the fraction of your prime subscription that goes to streaming. And if you're on Rumble, by all means keep rumble sizes.
- [62:59]
Emma Vigland
Yeah, Rumble along.
- [63:02]
Brian
Shout out pandemic anxiety. Our 1 stalwart.
- [63:05]
Sam Seder
Hey, we got seven going now.
- [63:06]
Brian
Damn, that's pretty much where we've been.
- [63:08]
Sam Seder
Want to say hi to all seven of you guys. You're I really appreciate you joining us.
- [63:13]
Brian
Mighty seven.
- [63:16]
Sam Seder
Also the AM Quickie amquickie.com get your news five days a week. Check that out as well.
- [63:26]
Brian
Matt left reckoning yeah patreon.com left reckoning David Griscom and I did a Sunday show. We got into Isaac Chotiner's interview with Karine Jean Pierre and talked about why people like Zoran Mamdani are the actual people to fight hate and not the sort of careerist folks that have been put at the top of the democratic party for two decades now. So check that out. Patreon.com left reckon.
- [63:56]
Sam Seder
Quick break, fun half. Three months from now, six months from now, nine months from now. And I don't think it's going to be the same as it looks like in six months from now. And I don't know if it's necessarily going to be better six months from now than it is three months from now, but I think around 18 months out, we're going to look back and go like, wow.
- [64:21]
Brian
What?
- [64:22]
Sam Seder
What is that going on? It's nuts. Wait a second. Hold on. Hold on for a second. Emma. Welcome to the program. Fun Half.
- [64:35]
David Chalian
Matt.
- [64:36]
Sam Seder
Fun hack. What is up, everyone? Fun Half. No. Me. Keen.
- [64:41]
Daniel Nikanian
You did it.
- [64:42]
Sam Seder
Fun Half.
- [64:44]
Emma Vigland
Let's go, Brandon.
- [64:45]
Sam Seder
Let's go, Brandon. Fun path. Bradley, you want to say hello? Sorry to disappoint everyone. I'm just a random guy. Guy. It's all the boys today.
- [64:55]
Daniel Nikanian
Fundamentally false.
- [64:56]
Emma Vigland
No. I'm sorry.
- [64:57]
Sam Seder
Women. Stop talking for a second and let me finish.
- [65:00]
Daniel Nikanian
Where is this coming from?
- [65:01]
Emma Vigland
Dude?
- [65:02]
Sam Seder
But. Dude, you want to smoke this? 7A.
- [65:06]
Emma Vigland
Yes.
- [65:09]
Daniel Nikanian
Hi. Me.
- [65:11]
Sam Seder
Miss me? Yes. Is this me? Is it me? It is you.
- [65:22]
Daniel Nikanian
Hello?
- [65:22]
Sam Seder
It's me. I think it is you. Who is you? No sound. Every single freaking day. What's on your mind?
- [65:31]
Emma Vigland
Sports.
- [65:32]
Daniel Nikanian
We can discuss free markets and we can discuss capitalism.
- [65:35]
Sam Seder
I'm gonna go smell libertarians. They're so stupid. Though common sense says of course.
- [65:40]
Emma Vigland
Gobbledygook.
- [65:41]
Sam Seder
We nailed him.
- [65:42]
Emma Vigland
So what's 79 plus 21?
- [65:44]
Sam Seder
Challenge. Mac. Positively quivering. I believe 96. I want to say. 8, 5, 7, 2, 1, 0. 8, 5, 5, 0, 1, 1 half.
- [65:52]
Daniel Nikanian
3, 8, 9, 11.
- [65:54]
Sam Seder
For instance.
- [65:54]
Emma Vigland
$3,400. $1,900. 5, 4.
- [65:58]
Sam Seder
$3 trillion. Sold. It's a zero sum game.
- [66:02]
Emma Vigland
Actually. You're making me think less.
- [66:04]
Sam Seder
But let me say this poop. You call it satire. Sam goes satire. On top of it all.
- [66:11]
Daniel Nikanian
My favorite part about you is just.
- [66:13]
Emma Vigland
Like every day, all day, like everything you do.
- [66:16]
Sam Seder
Without a doubt. Hey, buddy. We seen you. All right, folks, folks, Folks.
- [66:26]
Emma Vigland
It's just the week being weeded out. Obviously.
- [66:29]
Daniel Nikanian
Yeah.
- [66:29]
Sam Seder
Sun's out, guns out. I, I, I don't know.
- [66:35]
Daniel Nikanian
But you should know.
- [66:38]
Sam Seder
People just don't.
- [66:39]
Brian
Like to entertain ideas anymore.
- [66:40]
Sam Seder
I have a question. Who cares?
- [66:44]
Daniel Nikanian
Our chat is enabled, folks.
- [66:47]
Sam Seder
I love it.
- [66:47]
Emma Vigland
I do love that.
- [66:50]
Sam Seder
Gotta jump. Gotta be quick. I gotta jump. I'm losing it, bro. Two o', clock. We're already late and the guy's being a dick. So screw him. Sent to a gulag.
- [67:03]
Emma Vigland
Outrageous.
- [67:04]
Sam Seder
Like, what is wrong with you? Love you.
- [67:08]
Emma Vigland
Bye.
- [67:09]
Sam Seder
Love you.
- [67:11]
Daniel Nikanian
Bye.
- [67:11]
Sam Seder
Bye.