Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Majority Report with Sam Seder
Episode: 3616 - Trump's Polling Collapses; What Tomorrow's Election May Mean w/ Daniel Nichanian
Date: November 3, 2025
Host: Sam Seder
Guest: Daniel Nichanian (Founder & Editor-in-Chief, Bolts magazine)
Other Panelists: Emma Vigland, Brian

Overview

This episode focuses on the rapidly deteriorating polling numbers of Donald Trump, the context for high early voter turnout, broad dissatisfaction across the electorate, and the political stakes of the upcoming elections—most notably gubernatorial, judicial, and mayoral races. The guest, Daniel Nichanian, provides a deep dive into down-ballot races and why their outcomes matter for both policy and national political dynamics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Collapsing Poll Numbers and Voter Sentiment

• Trump's Approval Hits Record Lows:
  Trump's favorability is at an all-time low; his disapproval is higher than ever, compounded by aggressive uses of federal power, paramilitary policing tactics, and economic mismanagement (tariffs, cost of living, etc.)
• Economic Polarization:
  The top 10-20% of earners now account for 50-80% of national consumption. This distorts traditional economic metrics, making mainstream accounts of economic health feel disconnected from most Americans’ realities.
  • "There's an entirely different economy for the top 10, 20% and everybody else." — Emma Vigland [08:12]
• Artificial intelligence bubble:
  Stock market growth is concentrated in a few AI companies, exacerbating the sense that national prosperity is out of reach for most.
  • "Nvidia's I think 15% of US market cap, that is not sustainable." — Emma Vigland [11:03]

2. Democratic Party Weakness and Voter Disillusionment

• Failure to Capitalize:
  Despite Trump's unpopularity, Democrats have not succeeded in garnering broad public support. The episode underscores a lack of "fight" and inspiring leadership among mainstream Democratic candidates.
• Polls Show Democratic Base Erosion:
  7 in 10 Americans, including a majority of Democratic voters, view the party as "out of touch." The dissatisfaction chiefly arises from perceptions of insufficient opposition to Trump rather than excessive division.
  • "Democratic voters do not believe that... you’re gonna fight Donald Trump..." — Emma Vigland [21:20]
• Shift in Democratic Sentiment:
  The last decade has seen Democratic voters swing from preferring compromise to demanding confrontation with Republicans, especially after repeated failures to achieve progress via negotiation.

3. Election Previews & Races to Watch

Gubernatorial Races

• Virginia & New Jersey:
  Both have open races with Democrats poised to win. Virginia represents a flip, New Jersey a hold, with potential narrative implications for the national party.
  • "Democrats seem to be favored... which will be a flip in Virginia and a hold in Jersey." — Daniel Nichanian [33:08]

Judicial Races

• Pennsylvania Supreme Court:
  Three Democratic justices face retention elections. If ousted, the court could become deadlocked or see its majority erased—directly impacting issues from redistricting to election law.
  • "It's the swing state. It's the biggest swing state in the country. It's a Supreme Court that has had a lot to say..." — Daniel Nichanian [38:13]

Legislative Chambers

• Virginia House:
  Democrats hold a slim majority (51-49) and need to hold/expand it for legislative control. Republican flips are possible but less likely.
• New Jersey House:
  Less competitive but critical for gauging strength, given the broad Democratic majority and ideological range.
• Minnesota Senate:
  Special elections could flip control, albeit unlikely.

Local Races

• City Council & County Executives:
  GOP gains in diverse urban districts (see Bronx City Council, PA swing counties, Long Island) are watched as indicators for 2026 congressional prospects.

Sheriff and Immigration Policy Races

• ICE Collaboration:
  County sheriffs play an outsized role in immigration enforcement. However, in many swing or blue-leaning areas, Republican sheriffs face little opposition—highlighting a missed opportunity for progressives.
  • "A big theme of our coverage at Bolt this year was... places we had already... identified... in most cases no one filed to run against an incumbent Republican sheriff..." — Daniel Nichanian [50:05]
• Bucks County, PA is a rare exception, where a Democrat is challenging a pro-ICE Republican incumbent.

Mayoralties

• New York City, Minneapolis, Seattle:
  Progressive-vs-centrist contests are seen as bellwethers for statewide/national trends, especially given historic turnout surges.
• Implications:
  Victories by left candidates (e.g., Mamdani in NYC) could shift power dynamics within state parties and set the tone for midterm policy debates.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"The approval rating right now... sits at 37%. That is a low mark in this term for Donald Trump. His disapproval is at 63%. That's a high mark for his entire time as president, first and second term combined..."
— David Chalian [11:55]

"Crime and safety is, according to other polls, still where he's least underwater... at least on the national level... crime and safety is going to matter more in a municipal election or a mayoral race..."
— Emma Vigland [15:17]

"...the complete lack of credibility that the Democratic Party has with its own base right now. And that is why we are seeing the rise of Zoran Mamdani..."
— Emma Vigland [20:53]

"There is some suspense, as people who follow this can know, maybe a little more in New Jersey than in Virginia, but heading into the final day will be an upset for Republicans to pull off either seat..."
— Daniel Nichanian [33:08]

"...the sort of stakes we were expecting to see elsewhere... Bucks County... a Republican sheriff... and a Democrat is running, saying he wants to end the contract [with ICE]."
— Daniel Nichanian [50:05]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:14: Episode intro, news recap, Trump unfavorable polling, NY early turnout
• 05:48: Shutdown, SNAP benefit uncertainty, negative social/economic dynamics
• 08:12: Economic inequality, top earners' consumption data
• 11:55: (Clip) CNN’s David Chalian on Trump’s plummeting poll numbers and electorate’s economic discontent
• 17:23: Trump’s underwater approval on most issues, including tariffs, federal management
• 18:10–20:53: Democratic Party "out of touch" poll, left-progressive momentum, dissatisfaction
• 32:33: Daniel Nichanian interview begins
• 33:08: Overview of governor’s races, national narrative stakes
• 38:13: Pennsylvania Supreme Court overview
• 41:22: State legislatures in play – Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota
• 44:03: Local/below-the-radar races as harbingers for 2026
• 50:05: Sheriffs, local ICE collaboration, enforcement as electoral stakes
• 53:22: Mayoral races: NYC, Minneapolis, Seattle as progressive v. centrist contests
• 57:08: Implications for future state-level power dynamics
• 57:41: Episode wrap-up, plugs for Bolts magazine and other MR content

Tone & Delivery

The show features Majority Report’s customary mix of irreverence, skepticism, and independent analysis. Sam Seder and Emma Vigland balance deep political commentary with banter, keeping the discussion accessible—Ironic humor surfaces frequently, especially when addressing mainstream media coverage, political leadership, or recurring Democratic timidity.

Conclusion

This episode offers a comprehensive rundown of the precarious political landscape on the eve of critical off-year elections: Trump’s base erodes amid economic malaise and aggressive policing, but Democrats seem unable to convert his unpopularity into a decisive advantage. Daniel Nichanian’s down-ballot expertise reveals just how much is at stake, especially in overlooked sheriff and judicial elections—and why local results may carry outsized weight for national politics and the 2026 cycle.

For more context and detailed breakdowns of local races, listeners are directed to Bolts magazine's election guides.