The Marginal Revolution Podcast – "The 1970s Crime Wave"

Date: November 12, 2024
Hosts: Alex Tabarrok (A), Tyler Cowen (B)
Theme: Analyzing the Explosion of Crime in the 1960s–1990s America, Its Causes, Cultural Impact, and Policy Responses

Episode Overview

Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen dig deep into the 1970s American crime wave—a period that saw an unprecedented surge in violent crime, urban unrest, and social fear. They explore startling crime statistics, the rise of infamous serial killers, the societal effects of fear and violence, the influence of policy and economic shifts, and the lasting legacy of this era on US policies like mass incarceration. Throughout, the episode reflects on explanations for the crime wave, why it eventually receded, and lessons for today's policymakers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Magnitude and Nature of the 1970s Crime Wave

• Statistics and Impact

  • Homicide rates doubled between 1960 and 1980; violent crime more than tripled.
  • By 1991: 34 million crimes reported, including 6.4 million violent crimes.
  • If homicide rates had remained at 1960 levels, there would have been 200,000 fewer murder victims and 20 million fewer violent crime victims.
  • Violence became more impersonal; stranger violence and robberies increased even faster than domestic crimes.
    (A, 00:55)

• Societal Effects

  • Urban fear led to white and middle class Black flight to suburbs, growth of gated communities, private security, and demand for “shall issue” gun laws.
  • Policy responses like increased policing and mass incarceration shaped decades of American justice and social dynamics.

"Stranger violence...was newer, more difficult to avoid, and it generated more fear."
— Alex Tabarrok [01:48]

2. Extraordinary Crimes: Serial Killers, Bombings, and Hijackings

• Contagion Effect in Crime

  • Rise of serial killers (e.g. Son of Sam, Zodiac, Ted Bundy), bombings, and political assassinations (Kennedys, MLK).
  • Notions of “contagion” and demonstration effects (i.e., high-profile crimes inspire imitators). (B, 03:48)
  • Political bombings: In some years, more than one bombing per day (e.g., 278 bombings in 1970 vs. 7 in 1991). (A, 07:41)

• Plane Hijackings and Notorious Groups

  • Frequent plane hijackings: “Fly me to Cuba” became a cliché.
  • Weather Underground and New World Liberation Front engaged in high-profile bombings with political motives; few perpetrators caught. (A, 08:40)

• Urban Decay and Fire

  • NYC murder rates quadrupled (1960–72); fires ravaged buildings, with the South Bronx losing 97% of its structures.
  • Mass arson not primarily for insurance but for thrill or due to neglected infrastructure.
    (A, 10:31–11:40)

• Anecdotes & Pop Culture

  • “Welcome to Fear City” pamphlet (handed out by off-duty NYPD/firemen) captured the sense of urban doom and lawlessness. (A, 12:36)
  • 1977 NYC blackout: “A frenzy of looting”—looting and arson followed immediately, recalling images from films like "The Purge."
    (A, 14:14–14:59)

"People just seem to take the lights out as a signal to go crazy. In Brooklyn, no one thought that was weird when it happened."
— Alex Tabarrok [14:47]

Notable Quote:

"Serial killers start to dwindle by the 1990s...The contagion effect is gone. We don’t seem to understand these turning points very well."
— Tyler Cowen [04:06]

3. Connecting Crime and Mass Incarceration

• Roots of American Mass Incarceration
  • The U.S. did not always have high incarceration rates; mass imprisonment responded to the 1970s crime surge, not only racism.
  • Many Black leaders and victims demanded tougher sentences; policy calls for harsher punishment against muggers and drug pushers came from Black newspapers and organizations.
  • Eric Holder (future Attorney General) once called for “stop and frisk”—contradicting some modern narratives.
  • Crime was seen as a cross-racial crisis; both Black and white communities demanded tougher criminal justice.
  • As crime dropped, public misgivings about mass incarceration rose.

"The primary driver of mass imprisonment was not racism, it was violent crime."
— Alex Tabarrok [18:10]

4. Why Did Crime Increase So Drastically?

• Demographics

  • Population of youths aged 15–24 rose significantly (13% to 19% between 1960–80); explains only a fraction (10–20%) of the surge.
  • Crime as a “young person’s game”—but population changes alone insufficient to account for full rise. (A, 20:40–21:29)

• Declining Expected Punishment

  • As crime rose, prison populations, relative to reported crime, declined; overwhelmed justice system reduced deterrence.
  • Multiple equilibria: More crimes mean criminals are harder to catch, creating a feedback loop. (A, 21:45–24:22)

• Lead Poisoning Hypothesis

  • Lead exposure impairs self-regulation; removal of lead in gasoline linked to crime decline in the 1990s.
  • Temporal and international data only partially support this theory. (A, 25:10–26:14)

• Rural-Urban Migration

  • Migration to cities broke down social bonds; higher anonymity led to more opportunity and incentives for crime. (A, 26:14–27:42)

• Deindustrialization and Drugs

  • Deindustrialization (factories moving, urban poverty) created “mini-labs” where crime spiked—e.g., Paterson, NJ, and Detroit.
  • Addictive drugs (heroin in the '70s, crack in the '80s/'90s): territory battles, drug-fueled thefts drove up violent crime. (B, 27:46–31:03)

"The single biggest effect, I think, is the drug trade and how the drug trade changed and became more potent..."
— Tyler Cowen [30:01]

• Cultural/Contagion Effects
  • Crime begets crime; peer effects and culture can rapidly shift the social baseline for criminality.
  • Social movements, like Mothers Against Drunk Driving, transformed drunk driving from a joke into a serious social taboo. (A, 31:56–33:43)

5. Lessons, Warnings, and Policy Reflections

• Unstable Equilibriums

  • Social change can rapidly flip—crime can surge or decline abruptly based on "contagion" mechanisms and peer behavior.
  • Modern car theft example: When vulnerabilities in Kias/Hyundais were exploited, thefts soared overnight despite existing social/legal structures. (A, 36:44–38:11)

• Why is Canada So Safe?

  • Urbanized, high immigration, but lower violent crime than US.
  • Factors: stricter gun laws, demographic/historical differences, less history of revolution/gun culture, possible climate influence, and immigrant selection.
    (A, 39:31–41:00)

6. How Should We Respond Today?

• On Policing

  • US is under-policed relative to need; more police (of high status and training) could help keep crime low.
  • The profession should be high-status and attract idealistic, community-focused recruits.
  • Technology (cameras, data-driven policing, hotspot interventions) provides new tools for legal, effective law enforcement. (A, 43:20–47:31)

• Legal/Procedural Challenges

  • Some criminal justice reforms (Miranda warnings, exclusionary rules) made policing harder in the '60s/'70s, but adaptation is possible.
  • Policing must balance rights protection with practical effectiveness.

• Surveillance and Privacy

  • Surveillance cameras, environmental design, and focused policing can reduce crime in high-risk spots without blanket repression.

• Complacency is Dangerous

  • The hosts repeatedly warn against taking today’s low crime rates for granted—history shows crime can erupt quickly with little warning.

"If we become complacent, then crime could explode once again...If that happened again, we would again be overwhelmed."
— Alex Tabarrok [49:44]

"We should not take our current low crime environment for granted. It could change quite a bit and fairly rapidly."
— Tyler Cowen [50:43]

Memorable Quotes

• "Stranger violence... was newer, more difficult to avoid, and it generated more fear."
  — Alex Tabarrok [01:48]

• "Serial killers start to dwindle by the 1990s... The contagion effect is gone. We don’t seem to understand these turning points very well."
  — Tyler Cowen [04:06]

• "The primary driver of mass imprisonment was not racism, it was violent crime."
  — Alex Tabarrok [18:10]

• "Crime exploded because crime exploded."
  — Alex Tabarrok [31:56] (in reference to contagion effects)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Historical crime stats and social consequences [00:55–03:24]
• Serial killers and demonstration effects [03:24–05:52]
• Bombings, urban fires, and NYC-specific tales [07:41–11:40]
• "Welcome to Fear City" pamphlet and the 1977 blackout [12:34–14:59]
• Mass incarceration policy origins [16:15–19:46]
• Why crime surged: demographic, economic, and cultural factors [20:40–33:43]
• Modern crime declines and fragile equilibrium [36:44–38:11]
• Why Canada is different [39:31–41:00]
• Policing and policy dilemmas [43:20–49:44]
• Closing warnings on complacency [50:43–end]

Takeaways

• The American crime wave of the '60s–'90s was transformative, fueled by economic, demographic, chemical, and cultural shifts—with “contagion” effects rendering prediction and control extremely difficult.
• Mass incarceration was a societal—not exclusively racist—response to the crisis.
• Crime could explode again, especially if vigilance and effective policing wane; society must not take current safety for granted.
• Solutions require a balanced, high-status police force, prudent reform, and innovations in crime-prevention.
• History’s abrupt swings in violence and public order serve as a cautionary tale for policymakers today.

Tone and Style

Informal but deeply informed, with anecdotes, sharp statistical context, and an occasional gallows humor. The hosts move fluidly between personal stories (growing up near NYC, a Canadian’s first visits), economic analysis, and sociological theory, always returning to a broad, policy-relevant perspective.