← The Mark Moss Show
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- [00:00]
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This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human we believe in starting with your financial goals, not a formula. At Oppenheimer, we put the full strength of our long standing expertise to work understanding your life and your ambitions and designing the precise strategies that build and protect your wealth. With confidence across this generation and the next, put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth Management, Capital Markets Investment banking
- [00:34]
Chris Camillo
Amazon Health AI presents Painful Thoughts why did
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I search the Internet for answers to my cold sore problem? Now I'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of alarmingly graphic source in various stages of ooze. I can clear my search history, but I can never unsee that.
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Chris Camillo
Don't go down the rabbit hole. Amazon Health AI gets you the right care fast. Healthcare just got less painful.
- [01:05]
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Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real and so is the relief from EBGLIS. After an initial dosing phase, about 4 in 10 people taking EBGLIS achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin at 16 weeks. And most of those people maintain skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
- [01:23]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
EBGLIS Liberikizumab LBKZ, a 250 milligram injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies. Ebgliss can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to Ebglis. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Epglis. Before starting Epglis, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection searching for real relief.
- [01:57]
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- [02:35]
Chris Camillo
Every dollar in your life is potentially worth $100 in the future. Most professional investors are so caught up in the noise.
- [02:42]
Mark Moss
That's probably the single most important skill that we have moving into the AI age is being able to recognize patterns. And not everybody can do that.
- [02:50]
Chris Camillo
There is no such thing as a trade that is a sure thing. Probably my highest conviction trade that didn't work out wiped out a third of my li liquid net worth.
- [02:57]
Mark Moss
Most people think that there's risk with investing. So if I don't invest, I don't have risk.
- [03:03]
Chris Camillo
You'll probably end up in the worst scenario if you're completely resilient to taking risk in your life.
- [03:08]
Mark Moss
I think I saw some of your content talking about doing some trades against bitcoin.
- [03:13]
Chris Camillo
I've had the same thesis for about 10 years. I'm not sure it ever will change.
- [03:17]
Mark Moss
What's one prediction for 2030? It's about four years away that most people will think is absolutely crazy.
- [03:24]
Chris Camillo
We are going to see so much traction in.
- [03:28]
Mark Moss
All right, Chris, so let's kick this thing off. I've watched a bunch of videos of you. You've been making a lot of calls that have been right over the years. You've been audited, you've made a lot of money through non traditional ways. I'm excited to get into that. But give me a 60 second version of sort of how you've built your career, why it's different and how it works.
- [03:46]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, for the most part, I've just found opportunity in thinking differently and taking a different approach to business and investing. So you know, it all started back when I was a kid looking at places that other investors weren't looking right. So I established this kind of a methodology I now call social arbitrage investing, which is essentially trying to be smart in a different way than Wall Street. And it really entails trying to surface change in the world quickly. Whether that's like change in consumer behavior or culture or technology or politics, it really doesn't matter where the change is. But with change comes opportunity. So when you see the world changing, you try to connect the dots between that change and sectors or companies that would either benefit or be harmed by that change. Now sometimes those companies are publicly traded and there's an opportunity to trade stocks. Sometimes they're private. It makes it a little more difficult. Sometimes you'll end up starting a company to take advantage of that shift because you see that there's really no one monetizing that change, and there's an opportunity to actually start something from scratch. But it all starts with learning how to observe the world critically and to surface change and just see it as it's happening in real time before others see it and then connecting dots. So, like, none of that entails a tremendous amount of fundamental, you know, investment analysis where you have to have a financial pedigree. It doesn't really entail technical trading, which is fun for a few people, but I think most people are really intimidated by that. It's definitely neither of those worlds are for me. Yeah. And so I kind of found this new way to think about investing, and I firmly believe it's the optimal way to kind of gain alpha on Wall street and other investors. And I just think it's so cool because anybody can do it. Doesn't really matter what your background is. You could be a kid, you could be retired, you could be man, female. Right. It really doesn't matter who you are or what your job is. You just got to watch the world unfold and connect dots. Yeah. And that's really all that I've done for like 20 plus years, both in public and private markets and for myself and my own businesses.
- [06:07]
Mark Moss
You said it's something that anybody could do because it's not deep financial analysis, it's not technical analysis. Anybody could do it. But then you said it's just connecting dots. And so while you brush over that, that's probably the single most important skill that we have moving into the AI age is being able to recognize patterns. And not everybody can do that. It seems like the technical schooling that we've received have taken that ability away from people. And so the ability to connect dots and see those patterns isn't something everybody has. But I want to dig more into that. But let's just go back, because your story starts at like 13 years old. You were going to 7 11, and you saw some pattern there that you were able to take advantage of.
- [06:49]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, it was a bit of an OD kid. I was, you know, grinding at age 13, interested in money and making it big. Back in the day, that was not like a cool thing to do. Today it is like teenagers now. They're trading crypto, they're trading stocks.
- [07:05]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [07:06]
Chris Camillo
Like they're. They have side hustles and like, that's part of the culture of being like a kid. It definitely wasn't back in the day. Yeah. Back in the 90s. So for me it was. I would buy and sell and Arbitrage products at garage sales. I had realized that, that most garage sales and estate sales were being run in price by older women. And they were great at pricing like silver and female oriented products and items, but really bad at pricing anything that was male oriented. So whether it was a watch, whether it was like an old fan, like anything that was odd, they just discarded it. And I would look for those items at sales, buy them and then resell them to dealers that specialize in that particular it. This is pre ebay, of course, so it's kind of tough to do. But also no one was doing it. Now there's like a million people doing this with the. Gary Vee. Yeah, Gary Vee. Right. So I would start every morning getting Snapple iced tea at this local 711 just because I, you know, had caffeine. Just how I started, like at 5am before I hit the sales. And one morning I realized that, you know, the Snapple was reduced by like 75%. So instead of two refrigerators was like half of one. Spoke to the clerk who's like, yeah, there's more competing brands now. I think it was like Arizona Iced Tea and a couple others. It's like this how it's going to be from now on. So my older brother was a stockbroker. I was like, can I make money off of this? It's like, well, I mean, you could short Snapple. And he taught me how to short it. He bought some puts. I gave him $300, which is all the money I had from garage sales at the moment. Sure enough, it was the first time in the history of Snapple, which is like the hottest company in the stock market, that they had missed earnings. And this happened like a few weeks after I made that bet because inventory was building up in the channel because retailers like Seven Eleven were giving them less shelf space than they were previously because of new competition. What's so crazy about that is like anyone in the world could have seen that. Certainly, like if you're working on Wall street, you could have seen it. Right. Like the same thing that I saw. But most professional investors, institutional investors, are so caught up in the noise, so caught up in the herd mentality that sometimes they just can't see very simple things are right in front of their face.
- [09:18]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
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Chris Camillo
And like something clicked at that moment. I was like, wow, I can do this as a K kid now of course, like, I then went on a long string of learning all the investment analyses and trying everything else, which failed for me over many, many years.
- [09:34]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [09:34]
Chris Camillo
And then eventually my twenties came back to that style of investing that worked when I was a kid. You know, I coined it Social Arb. Wrote a book about it. Three years after I started. I became the top rank investor in the world on a portfolio tracking service called Covester. Got a book deal and just never stopped. And I've been doing it ever since. I think I'm on year 18 of social arb investing and I'm kind of somewhere north of 70% ish. Audited annualized portfolio returns average over an 18 year period, which is just obviously almost insane.
- [10:10]
Mark Moss
Better than the goat Stanley Druckenmiller?
- [10:12]
Chris Camillo
Yeah. Well, you know, to be fair, my account has stayed relatively small in the seven to eight figure range over that time. So I'm not having to manage, you know, a billion dollars. Yeah. And most of the profits I make every year between taxes, bills, and then I reinvest them in private companies, which was actually probably a mistake. I'm in about 160 private companies where I generate like average returns as opposed to 70 plus percent returns. So if I would have known that I could have kept up that type of a performance in public markets, I would have never pulled money out to put them in privates. I thought privates are where you make the big money.
- [10:47]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [10:48]
Chris Camillo
And, but yeah, it's been quite a run. I'm gonna try to do it for a few more years. I have fun with it.
- [10:54]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [10:54]
Chris Camillo
Like a lot of people do it, which is cool because like Social Arb investing has become a thing like fundamental investing or technical. And that was kind of always my dream that other people would pick up on this.
- [11:04]
Mark Moss
Yeah, yeah. I mean it's a simple concept. So it's. The principles are few, but the methods are many. So the, the principles recognizing price discrepancy or the arbitrage, as you said, I remember as a kid, and you're absolutely right, like the kid. The life my kids have today is just so different. Back when I was a kid, it was like you just middle class and you had like one pair of shoes and a couple pairs of jeans and like there wasn't, we didn't have trillions of dollars being printed and floating around the economy and you didn't think about money as much. But I remember my, my mom taking us to, my sisters and I, we lived by the school and we would go to, I think it was like Sam's Club or Price Club back then. And we could buy candy in bulk and then we'd set up a little table out front of the house and as the kids came by school, we just sell it and we just arb the difference. Right. So it's like those, those. Those are there all the time, but you can take it to a different level, I guess, is kind of what you're saying. Now we have a lot of tools. So you're talking about social arb. So is that more like using social media? You've talked about, like using TikTok, like how you're using TikTok to sort of see what that's doing.
- [12:06]
Chris Camillo
Yeah. So it doesn't necessarily have to be social media, but that's where it works best. And I started doing this kind of pre. Similar to the way Peter lynch did it in the 80s. You go to the mall, you just observe. You observe what people are doing, what they're buying, what they're talking about. But your universe of information is like, really small. Now we have social media. Right. And all the world's conversations have become digital. So simply reading the world's conversations in real time to me is like the most golden alpha you'll ever get. Because Wall street historically leans on transactional data sets to get an edge on retail investors like us. They spend millions of dollars on credit card data, swipe data, so maybe a couple weeks before earnings, they kind of have a sense of how a brand's doing or how a company's doing. Well, what do people do before they purchase something? They talk about it. They talk about things that they want, they talk about things that they like, things that they hate. What are they doing that day? Where are they going? What are they buying? What's on their wish list? So there is no data that gives you in an edge that's closer to real time than conversational data. The problem is it's a little noisy. It's hard to interpret. You have to really get accustomed to. Like when people use words like obsessed. Those are good signals. But how many people does it take to say that, like, words like sold out everywhere are good kind of indicators that a product is starting to sell out? Does Wall street know that yet? So if you're. Social media is essentially the entire world talking in real time, and that happens in the comments of videos. And TikTok just happens to be the social media platform where people are most transparent and open and raw, and they're not trying to present a fake version of themselves like Instagram. So it's kind of the gold mine. It's not just watching the videos, but again, it's like the comments in the videos, because the video can be a Content creator, it could be an influencer, they might be getting paid, they might have a bias. But 3,000 comments, that's where it gets really interesting. And if you start seeing the same thing over and over again, said in different ways by different types of people, you can really catch on to like a shift that's happening. Whether it's a shift in brand preference or fashion or culture, buying behavior, interest, it's all happening in real time on social media.
- [14:47]
Mark Moss
Yeah. I was at a conference a year ago up in LA and I met somebody who's setting up these TikTok shops all across Canada and the US and so like whatever's trending, they'll just make the product and then they have these like retail shops that just sell trending TikTok stuff on there and just sort of like follow the trend like that. I thought that was pretty interesting.
- [15:05]
Chris Camillo
It's the same exact concept. So a lot of the guys that do that are essentially looking for change. When they see it, they're identifying how they can monetize it through the creation of businesses that sell things. I'm doing the same thing. I'm just doing it with trading. Right. So I'm looking. I'm only looking at the change where it's generally applying to at least one or more publicly traded companies that I can monetize through a trade.
- [15:30]
Mark Moss
Yeah. So let's talk about it in like more practical terms. So here we are, Friday of this week, maybe earlier this week, Monday, Tuesday, you were probably on Tick tock going through this. What did you see, what were you looking at and did you take any action based off of that?
- [15:44]
Chris Camillo
Yeah. So the top of the funnel is really big. I spent almost every night spending some amount of time reading TikTok comments occasionally. Quite often it's like four hours a night. Most of the time I don't find anything and sometimes when I do find something, you know, it doesn't meet all the criteria to actually become a trade. So the thing that I find might not be big enough needle mover for any one company. It might not be the most important thing happening at any one company. It might be something that is interesting but is already widely known by other investors. Right. So you have to kind of go through this process to assess is there an actual trade here? So, I mean, one of the more recent ones is kind of a fun one. Over the past couple of months, they're, you know, this little squishy toys that kind of come in and out of trends. Every couple of years there's a new one well, it's not really new. It's been around a while, but it just happened to go viral on Tick Tock and it has taken over the world by storm. It's now like the number one and two toy on Amazon and it's called Neato. So it's just kind of like a gel squishy, but they do a better job with the texture of it. It's just more firm than other squishies. So it has like a better impact on your, like your stress control. Right. So like it is sold out everywhere. Okay. And this Neato squishy toy is made by a very tiny private company. That private company is owned by a publicly traded holding company and it equates to about six and a half percent of the publicly traded holding companies net asset value because that holding company only makes money from dividends and from interest payments of the 26 companies it owns. So you have to ask yourself, okay, it's about six and a half percent of this company. If the sales triple, which I think they can easily this year, if the trend maintains over the next few months, especially if it maintains into this holiday season, that could be a really impactful moment for this boring holding company that essentially never has a company that goes trend worthy like. Yes. Right. And it could potentially impact this company by 20 to 40%, which is huge. Right. So that's just kind of one example of something that you see on TikTok and there's actually a picture publicly traded company that could benefit from it.
- [18:28]
Commercial Announcer
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- [18:47]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
MGLIS Libre Kizumab LBKZ, a 250 milligram per 2 milliliter injection. Egyptian is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin or topicals or who cannot use topical therapies. EBGLIS can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you are allergic to ebglis. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with ebglis. Before starting Ebglis, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
- [19:21]
Commercial Announcer
Ask your doctor about fgliss and visit evglis.lily.com or call 1-800-lilyrx or 1-800-545-5979.
- [19:28]
Chris Camillo
Amazon Pharmacy presents Painful Thoughts of course
- [19:34]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
I see my co worker in line at the pharmacy. Can you tell I'm picking up prescription hemorrhoid cream? I'm probably standing weird.
- [19:42]
Chris Camillo
Why is he smiling?
- [19:43]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
He knows he's going to call me Hemorrhoid Lloyd tomorrow.
- [19:47]
Podcast Sponsor Announcer
I know it.
- [19:48]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
I gotta quit my job.
- [19:50]
Chris Camillo
Next time avoid awkward conversations and get fast free delivery. With Amazon Pharmacy, healthcare just got less painful.
- [19:59]
Commercial Announcer
We believe in starting with your financial goals, not a formula. At Oppenheimer, we put the full strength of our long standing expertise to work understanding your life and your ambitions and designing the precise strategies that build and protect your wealth with confidence across this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth Management Capital Markets Investment Banking
- [20:29]
Podcast Sponsor Announcer
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comdisclosures all right,
- [21:30]
Mark Moss
stop what you're doing right now and book your travel to come join me in Las Vegas for the Bitcoin Conference. It's the biggest event of the year, the one I look forward to the most. Post every Single year, literally my entire year calendar is set around. It's the biggest event, the most culturally relevant event happening in the world. The top politicians, the top bankers, the top investors, the top entertainers. Everybody's going to be there. So come check it out. April 27th through the 29th, use my code, Mark Moss, to save 10%. And if you use my code to save 10%, send me a message on social media or email and I'll invite you to a private party I'm having at the event and I'll see you there. So then you find something that's trending. And as you said, as we kind of talked about with the TikTok store, some people might go, hey, maybe I should sell Squishies. So you could try that. Maybe find them on Alibaba, ship them over here, sell them that way, or find the company who's making them. Maybe do. Do they need to sort of have like some sort of like IP or some sort of dominance? Like it's not easy to rip them off for them to. For you just go to the next stage of a research.
- [22:35]
Chris Camillo
Not necessarily. Right. So that could be the situation, but at some point people are going to try to rip them off. They kind of already are.
- [22:44]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [22:44]
Chris Camillo
But this company has a lot of reputation. They have massive distribution. So. And if the sector stays really hot, even if there are competitors, you know, they don't have to stay on trend for two years. Right. They stay on trend for six to nine months. And that's a real needle mover for them. So, you know, but that's part of the risk. Part of the risk is that they can't make enough to take advantage of all the demand. And meanwhile other knockoff companies will come in with replica products. And this company that makes neato is never going to really have an opportunity to fully monetize this moment that they're having. Yeah, it's part of the risk. It's something that an investor we need to look into. So, you know, risk reward.
- [23:24]
Mark Moss
There was an article that I read a few months ago from Jeff park, and he said roughly the end of the value investor and the rise of the ideological investor. And he was basically saying, now the Benjamin Graham value investors is out. It's been gone for a while. And now we have investors that are more ideological driven. So like Budweiser does like a Dylan Levini thing, the stock plummets or, you know, Sydney Sweeney does the great jeans, and then their stock price goes up. And so we see people being driven different from that. Is that Similar, like looking at, like what market sentiment is saying, or is that something different than what you're observing?
- [24:00]
Chris Camillo
It's all part of it.
- [24:01]
Mark Moss
It's all part of it.
- [24:02]
Chris Camillo
Anything that has potential to be meaningful to a publicly traded company matters as a social arb investor.
- [24:09]
Mark Moss
Okay.
- [24:10]
Chris Camillo
So sometimes it's something that happens to a product or a brand that is going to drive a company's revenue up or drive their cost up. But sometimes it's, it's a perception thing. It's something that's going to put the company in a different light of customers. People are going to perceive that company as being better now than they were in the past, even if it doesn't necessarily move the needle of their revenue. That's all that actually matters.
- [24:39]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [24:39]
Chris Camillo
So does it move the revenue needle, does it move the cost needle or does it move the perception needle? It really doesn't matter as long as it's going to have an impact on that company that will ultimately lead to people either buying the stock or selling the stock because of that thing.
- [24:57]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [24:57]
Chris Camillo
As, as a social arb investor, that's all you care about.
- [25:01]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [25:02]
Chris Camillo
Right. Like you don't have to care if the thing is real. So if you have a situation where you determine that this trend is actually not going to move the needle for the company, but you also determine that other investors will believe it will move the needle, then that's a trade opportunity.
- [25:19]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [25:20]
Chris Camillo
To buy it. Other investors are going to think it's going to move the needle. You know, they inflate the stock. You don't really believe in it long term. So, you know, you exit.
- [25:29]
Mark Moss
Yes.
- [25:29]
Chris Camillo
Other investors, you know, make their bets. So there are lots of ways to play these things.
- [25:37]
Mark Moss
Sure. Tell us about maybe one of your biggest, biggest wins that maybe happened really fast. That was fun and exciting, you know,
- [25:45]
Chris Camillo
God, I've had, you know, I've had a lot of wins over the years. I've had about, I don't know, 70 wins over 18 years, I think is what I kind of counted. 70 big wins, you know, some of them.
- [25:56]
Mark Moss
Which actually sounds kind of like a low number over such a long period.
- [25:59]
Chris Camillo
It's just a handful of high conviction trades every year. Yeah, that, that really matter. I mean, you know, some of them are like, listen, you identify something like cloud computing in the early days, Right. I was in technology founder. So I was building technology companies and in the earliest days of aws, we using AWS at one of my companies and my business partner told me this is going to absolutely change the entire technology World. Yeah. And we were monitoring the mentioned frequency of the word cloud computing in AWS on technology forums, like on Reddit and other places. And we were seeing a massive acceleration in engineers having conversations around potentially migrating their company to the cloud, primarily through awb. So made a major investment in Amazon. Right. And that was already like one of the world's biggest companies. So it doesn't have to be something really niche and small. Sometimes it's something really big.
- [27:07]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [27:08]
Chris Camillo
If you go all the way back to my earliest days investing even a company like Apple, the earliest days of the iPhone. You know, people in New York, which is where most of Wall street was at the time, weren't able to really use the Apple the iPhone in year one because it only came on AT&T. And AT&T had terrible data coverage in Manhattan. So basically nobody owned an iPhone in Manhattan. Year one, for the most part.
- [27:35]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [27:36]
Chris Camillo
And if you're an institutional investor, it didn't really seem like they were getting the traction that they were because your friends, your colleagues generally weren't using iPhones for that reason.
- [27:47]
Mark Moss
And BlackBerry dominated the business.
- [27:48]
Chris Camillo
It's still. So there were a lot of factors. Correct. So there was an opportunity to arb what other people weren't seeing. Same thing with Tesla. If you didn't actually drive a Tesla in the mid to late 2000 teens, you probably didn't fully grasp the magic that was part of the EV movement and you didn't really understand how big and fast that movement was coming. Right. And you just had to experience it. So. So these are all like ARB opportunities because you were able to see something or experience something sooner than someone else. Even last year, you know, one of my biggest trades was Nvidia, which seems like, oh, everybody knew about Nvidia, but There was a 10 week span where something really interesting was happening with Nvidia almost every week. Like when Trump and the administration went over to the Middle east, you know, I probably did 50 hours of work on Nvidia the week prior and it became very obvious to me, based on signals that were coming out, that there was going to be a large deal announced in the Middle east to basically adopt Nvidia chips in data centers in exchange for things that were being given to the U.S. yeah. And there was so much noise in the market at the time, tariff noise, noise around geopolitics, that people just missed this very obvious thing. Well, he goes to the Middle east, the data center deal gets announced, Nvidia pops.
- [29:15]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [29:15]
Chris Camillo
And that there was some, there was a storyline like that every week where if you weren't consumed by all the noise in the market, it was something that anyone could have uncovered and realized there's a high probability that this narrative is going to result in increased interest in a company like Nvidia.
- [29:32]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [29:32]
Chris Camillo
During that time period. So there's a million of them.
- [29:36]
Mark Moss
What was one of your highest conviction ones that didn't work out?
- [29:40]
Chris Camillo
So probably my highest conviction trade that didn't work out wiped out a third of my liquid net worth in a few months. Prior to when the pandemic. Pandemic started. It was a company that owned Burger King, Popeyes and Tim Hortons in Canada. And I had a very strong thesis on Burger King and Popeyes because of the crispy chicken sandwich which had just come out at Popeyes.
- [30:03]
Mark Moss
Okay.
- [30:04]
Chris Camillo
And the impossible burger had just come out at Burger King. And I was doing a massive amount of research into both. And it was wild because I had come to the determination that both Popeyes and Burger King were both to have two of the best quarters in the history of the company, which is a massive anomaly. Right. But Tim Hortons was actually the majority of revenue for that holding company. And because of that, and it was more difficult to do research on Tim Hortons because there wasn't a whole lot happening at the company. They were Canadian. I just made an assumption that Tim Hortons was likely just to have a normal quarter. There was nothing really meaningful there that would move the needle for them. And so it seemed like a complete no brainer. Two of the three companies were going to have the best quarters ever. Yeah. One of the other, the other company that was like 50 some odd percent of the holding company was more likely than not just to have a normal quarter.
- [31:04]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [31:05]
Chris Camillo
That didn't happen. Right. Tim Hortons ended up having a disastrous quarter. In fact, they had made some changes which are almost impossible to detect, unfortunately. I, I didn't know that they were having a share a franchisee meeting for Tim Hortons in Florida that I could have gone to. And if I would have gone to that franchisee meeting a few weeks before earnings, I would have seen hundreds of the most concerned angry franchisee owners of Tim Hortons that all flew down from Canada and they were like going to war with the company because of all these changes that had taken place that were impacting their revenue. Well, that ultimately came out on earnings. And because Tim Hortons was such a big part of the company, even though Burger King and Popeyes had spectacular quarters, the stock actually went down and I lost a hundred percent of my levered options bet on that trade, which was about one third of my liquid net worth at the time, which was catastrophic. Painful.
- [32:08]
Mark Moss
Painful.
- [32:09]
Chris Camillo
Very painful. But there's always things that, like, there's things that you know you don't know, and there's things that you don't know that you don't know. And there is no such thing as a trade that is a sure thing.
- [32:20]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [32:20]
Chris Camillo
Because there are always risk factors. And you just have to understand that going into every trade.
- [32:27]
Mark Moss
Yeah. Let's talk about the risk factor for us for a minute because I've heard you say that without the ability to take risk, you're not going to make any money. It's something I've said that I think the, that's what I, what I've observed is probably the single greatest ingredient to success is not your background or your education, it's your ability to take risk. So kind of the same thing. But how do you balance the need for needing to take risk? As you said, you're not going to make money without the risk. With what Warren Buffett would call the first two rules of investing and not losing money.
- [32:56]
Chris Camillo
Yeah. I. I mean, I don't understand how to be an. How to generate outsize returns without losing meaningful capital along the way. Occasion. Yeah, it's, it's. I haven't figured out how to do it, but I think if you're willing to take high conviction bets that are well researched over time and you're willing to utilize leverage, you will have bad times. But the good times far outweigh bad. The bad time.
- [33:31]
Mark Moss
Because they're asymmetric returns.
- [33:33]
Chris Camillo
Absolutely, they're asymmetric. So you listen, I think what Warren Buffett did, the time that he did it, I think, I think his story is more complex than people understand. Now, Warren Buffett wasn't just sitting there trading the stock market with public info.
- [33:53]
Mark Moss
Right.
- [33:53]
Chris Camillo
Like we all are. Right. Warren Buffett was incredibly intelligent, incredibly resourceful, and he basically maximized the opportunity that he had during his day to make investments that made sense at that time.
- [34:08]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [34:09]
Chris Camillo
I'm not sure the methodology and it's been kind of proven out, obviously with, with return data over the past couple decades has been as successful today. Right, right. Even with all of the massive amounts of access that his firm direct to the governments. Yeah. That no one else has. When you have that type of access and that type of information, you should be hitting it out of the park consistently forever. Right.
- [34:36]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [34:38]
Chris Camillo
So, you know, that said, I don't really think Warren Buffett is a good metric anymore for how to generate outsized returns, Especially if you're a retail investor in 2026. Yeah. And beyond.
- [34:52]
Mark Moss
Yeah. I mean, obviously Warren Buffett's lost a lot of money and you can, look, I referenced the goat, Stanley Druckenmiller, you know, the greatest of all time. 30 years without a losing year. But he lost, lost plenty of positions along the way. So I, I think, you know, while that's, that's a good cliche thing to say, the reality is everybody loses money. You're going to put money out, you're going to lose it. I think overall, try not to lose the farm necessarily on it. Right. Don't die. When Tony Robbins, I listened to him, you know, he's written now three or four books on, on finance and investing and he's interviewed, you know, 50 of the biggest billionaires in the world and he said the single biggest ingredient for those people's success is that they invest for asymmetric returns. So that they, you know, Paul Tudor Jones theory, which is like, hey, I'm gonna, I won't invest in something unless I have a 5 to 1 odds. So I could lose four of those and I could still make the return. And so I think kind of what you're saying is you, you're, you're betting big for big asymmetric upside and you lose a couple along the way, but that's limited to the one time downside. Well, unless you're using a lot of leverage on your options. But then when you hit those big, then you get those big outsized returns. Yeah.
- [35:57]
Chris Camillo
I mean it all comes down to understanding probabilities and outcomes.
- [36:01]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [36:02]
Chris Camillo
And yeah, that's, that's a huge part of it. There is no trade that has like a hundred percent probability of a good outcome. So if you're in a trade that has an 80% chance that you think you have high conviction of a good outcome and 20% chance of a bad outcome, that's a great trade. Or even if you think it's 50, 50, but if the good outcome will generate 3x or 4x and the bad outcome will simply wipe you out, that's also a great trade. So I do think it's exceptionally important to take, to really just understand what those probabilities look like on every trade that you make. Because often asymmetric opportunities are out there. They definitely are out there. But the way that our mind works is it will naturally go to a place where we overweight the risk. And because of that, people are just simply generally not willing to take risk even when the risk reward is in their favor. That's something that I preach all the time. And I think a great way to fix that is by bucketing your money better so that you actually have varying degrees of risk capital that are bucketed to take risk so that you're not second guessing yourself. When you make a 5050 bet where you 50% chance you lose all your money, but 50% chance you make four times your money.
- [37:29]
Mark Moss
Right.
- [37:30]
Chris Camillo
That's a bet you have to take every time. But you can't take that bet with everything. With everything. Right. Like you need to have allocated capital for those sorts of like risk reward scenarios. Right, right. It's really, it's key and people, most people don't understand that.
- [37:48]
Mark Moss
Yeah. Because in that scenario you, you use a bucket allocation and you do five of those investments and you lose two of them or you lose three of them, you're still going to come out ahead. I also think that most people think that there's risk with investing. So if I don't invest, I don't have risk. So you know, if I just stick to my 401k allocations on my paycheck, there's no risk in that. But if I do some other types of investing, there's too much risk. There's. As opposed to realizing that there's always risk in both of those scenarios. And if I just go to my 401k allocation and I'm in a 60, 40 portfolio and I average 6 and a half percent return, like I'm going to lose to inflation, that's guaranteed and there's no way to mitigate that risk. But if I take on some of these additional strategies, yes, it does increase my risk, but also return increases my return profile. But I can mitigate a lot of that risk, like you said, by bucketing and things like that. And so I think people think too linear. So like, like ah, that's too risky as opposed to thinking well what are the risks? And then how could I mitigate around those? I'm not sure if you agree with that.
- [38:52]
Chris Camillo
I, I 100 agree with you. Yeah, I mean I think the concept of taking risk and bucketing money for risk capital is one of the most important lessons that any human can learn. It's one of the biggest mistakes that people make. And you Absolutely, there's risk everywhere. As you just said said, not doing anything is probably the worst risk reward Right. Situation you'll ever be in.
- [39:16]
Mark Moss
Because you can't mitigate it.
- [39:17]
Chris Camillo
You can't mitigate it. And just think about it with every other part of your life. Right. Like you don't. If you don't take risk in your personal life, you might not end up with any friends. You might not ever end up with a significant other.
- [39:32]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [39:33]
Chris Camillo
You might not ever end up with a job. Like you just might end up in the. You'll probably end up in the worst scenario of any human if you're completely resilient to taking risk in your life.
- [39:44]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [39:44]
Chris Camillo
And it's absolutely no different when it comes to investing. Yeah, it's probably more important with investing than anything else in your life.
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Chris Camillo
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- [42:55]
Mark Moss
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- [44:37]
Chris Camillo
The easiest way to get around this is, you know, when I first started investing with social arb was 2007. I wrote a book in 2010 because I turned 20,000 to 2 million. Basically proving you can make a hundred times your money in three years by investing aggressively with leverage in high conviction things that you're seeing, you know, taking place in the world. Most people will not be able to replicate those returns, but I do think it is feasible and reasonable to think that you could 100x your returns over the course of your lifetime if you're investing aggressively with leverage. Right. So if you think that way, then every dollar in your life is potentially worth $100 in the future and that will open up so much money in your life because you're going to start to identify trade offs. Okay. I normally would never clip coupons, but hey, if that dollar coupon's a hundred dollars, I'm clipping it. Now the 50 cent coupons. 50. I'm clipping it. I'm clipping all these coupons. You know, like I really like my five dollar coffee. If it's a $500 coffee, I don't like it so much anymore. Maybe I only get it once or twice a week instead of seven days a week. And I make coffee at home the other five days.
- [45:51]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [45:52]
Chris Camillo
You will find so many trade offs in your life, it's, it's crazy. And the reason why this is important is because that opens up an opportunity for you to make trade offs and take the money that you are saving and rather than just not doing anything with that money, putting it in a high risk, high reward account. Because that's money that was out the window. It was money that you intended to spend. It's essentially gone anyway. But you made a very tiny sacrifice because you want to have the opportunity to make big money in your life, to truly be part of the investor class in a big way and to find massive amounts of wealth during your lifetime that is not restricted by the career path that you're on.
- [46:42]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [46:43]
Chris Camillo
And if you think that way, this account will start with literally a few dollars in it and it will grow. It will grow. It will probably grow massively over your lifetime and you will start to think totally differently about money.
- [46:58]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [46:59]
Chris Camillo
But again, it's impossible to take that money and to put 20% of that bucket in something that can go to zero if you're not treating that capital different and you're not thinking about it differently. So I like the idea of not taking your retirement money, not taking your vacation money necessarily, or your kids college education money, but finding new money in your life through this means of like thinking of every dollar as $100, which it absolutely reasonably can turn into. And hey, if it only turns into $40 or $50 in your life, it's still a huge win. Yeah, right. Every person should have this. I call it a big money account. It's. It's an account where you could truly make it big, whatever that means for you. And anyone has the opportunity to do that.
- [47:49]
Mark Moss
That. Yeah, yeah, I love that. The time value of money and thinking about if money could increase its purchasing power, you would think about every purchase differently. Most of the content I make is in the bitcoin space and we talk about, you know, if Bitcoin's purchasing power continues to increase like I believe it will, and then you start thinking in bitcoin terms, then you start thinking about how much this is going to be worth in the future and do I really need it that bad today or should I kind of wait? And so yeah, when you think about assigning that future value, it helps you make better decisions for sure. What if I think I saw some of your content talking about doing some trades against Bitcoin.
- [48:28]
Chris Camillo
So I have always had one thesis on crypto and bitcoin specifically and it has not changed.
- [48:36]
Mark Moss
Crypto specifically or Bitcoin specifically?
- [48:37]
Chris Camillo
I would say, well, just bitcoin. Okay. To simplify it. Yeah. I've had the same thesis for about 10 years. It hasn't changed. I'm not sure it ever will change. And the thesis is I don't have a strong viewp on bitcoin personally. And I don't think that it matters that I don't have a strong viewpoint because what matters is what other people think about bitcoin. Now you obviously have a big thesis on bitcoin. I don't need to believe in your thesis. All I need to believe is that you have a thesis. And it's very clear to me that this next generation of investors have a massive appetite for crypto, Bitcoin specifically. Right. They all have different reasons for that and I don't care what their reasons are. But I am convinced that for every gold bug of my generation and my parents generation that there are a hundred to a thousand x more investors in the younger generation that feel that way about bitcoin for one reason or another. Yeah. And if that is ground truth, then I want to be exposed to bitcoin because it's this generational trade where as the asset becomes institutionalized and becomes accepted and normalized, which it has been over the past few years, you can now so easily invest in it. As this wealth transfer takes place over the next 20 to 25 years, tens and tens of trillions of doll, the new generation is likely to allocate some piece of that capital to something like bitcoin.
- [50:28]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [50:29]
Chris Camillo
And so that's the only thesis that matters. Because of that, I have exposure, I want exposure in it because I feel like that's a really solid thesis. And I don't spend any time thinking about bitcoin or crypto at all. I actually think that there are traders in crypto that are way faster, way more intense and better than I am when it comes to crypto. And they use my methodology, social arb to trade crypto. I don't want to compete with them. Yeah, right. My competition in public equity markets is generally older, slower, more biased, more consumed by noise. And I can beat them and I believe I can continue to beat them going forward. So I just don't allocate much mind space.
- [51:19]
Mark Moss
Yeah, well, because your strategy is different and I just want to make this distinction for everybody listening. You said that you've only made about 70 trades in 18 years. You said a couple a year, so
- [51:30]
Chris Camillo
a few years, more than that now,
- [51:31]
Mark Moss
but yes, a few, A couple, whatever. A low amount and most people. And I think some of the people you're referencing, some, maybe some of the bitcoin traders are more like day traders and they're trading daily, maybe multiple times a day or multiple times a week or Something like that. And you're more of like a trend trader. Right? You're sort of like a swing, not even a swing trader, but. But you're just jumping on trends and then you have to allow that trend to develop. So you're trying to get in early, sounds like. And then you're allowing that trend to develop over time. And so like with bitcoin, you're saying, I recognize it's a big trend. Like I see the young people that are going to kind of push this like the old people did with gold. And you said this, you know, the money transfer is going to happen. And so this is like a long term trend. So it seems like your record is like, hey, I spot a trend early, I get in position, I allow it to develop as opposed to trying to trade it daily and then probably chewing up a bunch of capital being wrong a lot.
- [52:22]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, I think, think, I think trends is one word to use. It's probably not optimal for me. I like to think of what I do as having a clear sight line to the ground truth that exists right now in the present and to say based on that truth that I'm seeing, that is factual. The impact that is, that is likely to have on this company or this asset class. I try not to overly predict the future as much as I try to assess the reality of the present. So everything I told you about bitcoin is something that I'm seeing right now in young people, young investors. I see a massive percent of young investors that want to have varying degrees of exposure long term to bitcoin. The only thing that doesn't exist is they don't have a lot of capital yet because they're young, young. But their accounts are guaranteed to grow over the next 20 or 25 years, whether through their profession and adding to it. To it or through wealth transfer. Right, yeah. So to me it's just, it's factual. Now if I start to see young people caring less about bitcoin, they lose an interest in it. Something happens and it falls apart. I'll say that my thesis is no longer valid.
- [53:45]
Mark Moss
Sure, sure, yeah, it makes sense. I did a debate yesterday with Peter Schiff, gold versus Bitcoin. And he was trying to say, well, you know, bitcoin got the favorability of the Trump administration because of the voting bloc mobilized. And that's the only reason. And I'm like, so what you're saying is the amount of people are so big that they can now change the political climate. That seems pretty bullish to me and so kind of what you're seeing. And that's what he was saying. Let's jump over to another topic that's really big, something that I spent a lot of time thinking about. I'm guessing you spent a lot of time thinking about it, and that's AI, I think you were calling AI maybe the biggest thing that maybe has happened to humanity. On the other side of that, we got Michael Burry calling it the biggest bubble in humanity. How do you see that playing out?
- [54:34]
Chris Camillo
Well, let me just state that it could be both. Okay, so. So when you use a term like bubble, that could mean so many things, right?
- [54:43]
Mark Moss
Like, what stage of the bubble are we in?
- [54:46]
Chris Camillo
Okay. Like when you go through this big of a change, you're going to have a massive amount of creative destructionism. It's inevitable. We went through it during the dot com boom, right? When the opportunity is massive, everyone's trying to get a piece of it. They're over investing in the market. Companies are popping up that probably should never pop up. Some of them will work, most of them won't. So, yes, we, we do get this bubble. The, the bubble's intentional. We know we're over investing in the space. We don't. Investors don't have. They're willing to take on the risk that, hey, they're going to make some mistakes along the way, but they'd rather make mistakes and invest in it it and play in that space as opposed to not at all.
- [55:35]
Mark Moss
Like we talked about earlier, Some of your investments are going to work out.
- [55:38]
Chris Camillo
Not all of them, exactly. So both things can be true. I think it's factual that AI is the biggest thing we've experienced in our lifetime, at least in my lifetime that I've seen. And that just comes from seeing what AI can do right now. It's not based on some theoretical AGI in the future, just seeing what it's capable of right now. And I spend a tremendous amount of time deeply researching what engineers are actually building and saying and doing with AI right now in their jobs. So I think it's it. The writing's on the wall. It's inevitable how AI is going to change the world in such a massive way. Everything is going to shift. It's not going to happen overnight. Right. But everything will shift. And when you have that big of a change and when the change is coming fast as it is, that is going to present itself with maybe the largest opportunity we've ever seen as investors. Because industries will shift. We're already seeing it, right? Yeah, some industries will get destroyed. Other industries will get built, some companies will balloon, other companies will completely go away. So there's never been a more important time to be in tune with what's happening and to try to assess are there obvious winners and losers? Right. And placing your bets as an investor? Because we don't get opportunities like this very often. Sometimes we're just waiting for years and years and years. And think about what we've gone through the past 10 years where we've had the world's best engineers and the world's biggest companies with the most risk capital, basically choosing to put all of their efforts to making slight tweaks in the phone or slight tweaks in the ad algorithms. Right. That they're serving to us. So all of humanity, all of our best talent, was going towards slight tweaks in technology to like to serve as an ad better. I mean, are you kidding me? Now we have all of those same engineers working in this nascent space of AI with an uncapped amount of opportunity where we literally think we could maybe cure all the world's diseases. Right. We can create things, especially with robotics and automation, that can essentially build out infinite labor machines and change economies and allow us to do things we never thought would be possible before. Like, how is that not exciting, both as a human and an investor? Equally scary, because the bad things that can come from it. Right? But it's wild to me that so many people are resisting and fighting this obvious reality that's right in front of our face with AI.
- [58:22]
Mark Moss
Well, when you study history, I study a lot of technological cycles in history. And there's about every 50 years with this technological revolution. We're on our sixth one in 300 years. But every cycle you have people that fight the technology. You have the, the luddites who, who fought the power loom because it was going to take away those jobs, and the candle makers and the buggy makers and, and every cycle it does, as you said, creative destruction. It does displace jobs. I'm curious, you know, your approach seems to be more, not trend driven, but socially arbitraging the movements. I guess we'll call it that as an observational impact investing observation versus like macroeconomic driven. So a lot of macroeconomic investors are warning of AI causing a big crash because it's going to displace so many jobs. And then the job losses will create tax receipts to plunge and the government, you know, on and on and on. I've been taking the counter on that because I think that fails to recognize a couple of Things number one, if my, as a business owner, my job is to grow, my job is to build, my job is to go climb mountains, to go solve problems. Right. And so I think a business owner, like those are, those, those are conclusions that analysts draw. But I think entrepreneurs and business owners go, if I can do twice as much with the same staff, like, let's go, why would I go? Well, then I'll just fire half my people. Yeah, right.
- [59:44]
Chris Camillo
I think it's called like Devin's paradox, Right. Or something like that. Right.
- [59:47]
Mark Moss
So like, why wouldn't I just go? So if, if my CFO or my CMO frees up four or five hours a week, why wouldn't I do those projects that have been on the back burner this whole time as to like, well, I'll put you to part time now. So I think that's number one. And then number two, I think that it also thinks of things like in a vacuum. So like it does get rid of a lot of jobs. But look at all the jobs that it creates at the same time. And the biggest example I can see, I just saw a chart of this yesterday. One of the biggest jobs that would be at risk would be software engineers. Claude says that they're using Claude code to build the code for cloud fraud. Software engineers are the number one job that are at risk. But job explosions are off the charts for hiring software engineers right now.
- [60:30]
Chris Camillo
Yeah. So you put 100 economists in a room and ask their opinion, you're going to get a hundred different opinions. I think the one truth studying history is the prevailing opinions probably will be wrong. Right. So I agree with you. I don't know for sure, but I firmly believe that while we might have bumps in the road and there might be some issues that we have to work through with people out of jobs due to AI and certain career paths, that everyone will come out ahead in the end. I think it will create more better jobs on the tail end of this than we had before it started. Because, you know, if you have AI and automation and robotics and it allows you to open up, you know, basically allows you to have a fast food restaurant with 2/3 less employees. Right. But now you could open up five times as many restaurants because they operate so efficiently. Right. So I think the bottleneck, if you talk to business owners, if you talk to CEOs, the biggest bottleneck is always cost of labor. And it's either cost of labor or it's just access to labor. Sometimes it's not even cost. You just cannot get enough qualified labor. And it's every conversation I have. I was just speaking to, you know, a prominent entrepreneur billionaire this last week who said, I was like, what is your biggest, you know, bottleneck to growth? This person is trying to like grow a big private business. And it was talent. I just can't get enough talent.
- [62:21]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [62:21]
Chris Camillo
And if to the degree that AI enables us to kind of free up that choke hold. Right. To. And even if it's taking people and, and allowing them to the time to educate themselves to play a bigger part, part in the world economy in, in roles where AI maybe isn't as optimal because we can do all the repetitive stuff.
- [62:44]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [62:44]
Chris Camillo
And even in the way that AI can educate you, like no one's talking about that.
- [62:48]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [62:48]
Chris Camillo
Like we have the Alpha School in Austin that's, you know, educating kids like 5x faster.
- [62:54]
Mark Moss
I just saw that school. Amazing what they're doing.
- [62:56]
Chris Camillo
Wild. Like that school should be a template for every school in the world.
- [63:02]
Mark Moss
I actually messaged him and I talked, asked him about that.
- [63:05]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, it's, it's, it's not getting enough attention.
- [63:08]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [63:08]
Chris Camillo
And if you just look at what we can do to educate people rapidly in the optimal way that that individual is accustomed to learning it, you know, we're going to get to a point where you can be taught just in the things that are interesting to you. So if all you care about is soccer, it will figure out how to teach you math using nothing but soccer references. Right. So it's just a complete game changer, I think, for leveling up the human population.
- [63:39]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [63:39]
Chris Camillo
And freeing up the human population to do more. Right. Like to do more interesting things. Again, if you look at the, if you look at CEOs and entrepreneurs, they want to build, they just need to get around this human bottleneck and this is what's going to enable us to do it. So I agree with you. I think everybody wins at the end and it'll be a bumpy road. There's no doubt about it. It won't be clean. Nothing ever is.
- [64:05]
Mark Moss
I think back to that. We want to do more. Like, I've been wanting to build my own software and app for a long time. I don't know anything about building software apps. I'm certainly not going to go vibe coded either. But now that I know people can, and I know that the barrier to entry has fallen so low. If I got somebody that knew how to use Claude code and knew how to vibe code, I could get them to build, build it. So now I'm looking to bring somebody on to do that. I'm looking to hire because now it's more accessible to me. Whereas before I wasn't going to hire because it was too far out of reach. And I think that's why we see those jobs blowing up. Because that barrier's been, been, been, you
- [64:42]
Chris Camillo
know, lowered and something that's not getting enough attention because I think there are only so many people who have been a founder who have grown a business from an idea to something meaningful. People don't fully appreciate the friction that exists between a highly creative entrepreneur that sees a problem and they have a way to solve that problem. But they have to rely on teams of engineers to basically interpret their solution and filter it down and delay it. And the complexities and the expense of actually implementing that solution through traditional code and processes. If you're able to remove, and maybe you're not fully removing those people, but you're making it a much more fluid kind of channel between the entrepreneur's brain and the end product. If you remove all that friction, which is happy right now. I mean there's many cases where entrepreneurs don't even have to hire someone. They could just do this on their own. Right. That is going to open up so much opportunity.
- [65:57]
Mark Moss
Exactly.
- [65:58]
Chris Camillo
Wild. And think about this. There are millions of problems that need to be solved. But most of those problems, you cannot come up with a solution that is cost productive in the old world, meaning the cost to hire the teams to raise the capital. The amount of money that you would make from that solution, even though the solution is great, doesn't make sense to create an entire company and raise capital to solve that problem. But in the world of AI, there are now, there's now an opportunity for us to solve millions of these problems with a single individual.
- [66:37]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [66:38]
Chris Camillo
Who by the way, they might not have employees, but they are their employees. Employee. Right. So like that person might have been laid off from a company and now they're managing a niche product that maybe generates hundreds of thousands of dollars of income a year.
- [66:52]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [66:52]
Chris Camillo
Which hopefully is more income they were generating in their old job.
- [66:55]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [66:56]
Chris Camillo
Solving a problem that would have never had made sense to build an entire old school company around.
- [67:02]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [67:02]
Chris Camillo
Because they can solve it in their bedroom with, you know, a small computer or just a small subscription to some cloud computing and some agentic AI.
- [67:14]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [67:14]
Chris Camillo
Like that's massive. That could be millions of people.
- [67:18]
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- [70:20]
Mark Moss
gotta tell you what I've been doing with my money lately. I moved my cash over to river and before you ask, yes, I still pay all my bills in dollars. Everything works the same. But here's the real difference. You see, river pays me 3.3% on my cash and they pay it in Bitcoin. So my money that was just sitting there doing nothing at all in the bank, it's now stacking Bitcoin while I sleep. And I started thinking like my bank takes my deposit deposits, they loan those deposits out, they make 12, 17, 24 and they pay me 0.04%. I mean, honestly, that's kind of a shakedown when you think about it. Now Rivers, FDIC insured, they use full reserve, they charge no fees. So I don't know why I didn't do this sooner. So click the link down below and get a hundred dollars in Bitcoin just for getting started. How do you think about or if are you, or how are you observing? Are you investing in the space or how are you observing it? Because, because it's moving so fast. Like a month ago the hottest thing was got to get a cloud bot and set up your own Mac Mini and build that out. And now this week, Claude releases their new co work cloud code with code work and like I don't even need it anymore. It's like, it's all like. We take the time, we buy the thing, we spend a month building it out and all of a sudden it's like obsolete. So it's like. Seems like it's happening so fast. So how do you think about investing through this space?
- [71:35]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, I mean, I think if you're an entrepreneur, it's easy to transition from, from, you know, cloudbot over to, you know, or from like Open Claw to like a different platform. So I don't think there's a big issue there if you're in an investor, it makes it really difficult.
- [71:50]
Mark Moss
Right.
- [71:50]
Chris Camillo
And like I no longer invest in private companies, I no longer invest in early stage companies because it's just too difficult to assess where all the moats are. And I don't understand if there's, if I can't assess the barrier to entry country, then it's hard to value a company. And if the world is moving so quickly with technology, it makes it impossible for me to pick winners at the early stage.
- [72:17]
Mark Moss
Right.
- [72:17]
Chris Camillo
So like a lot of other investors, I'm sticking to the knowns. Yeah, I'm sticking to a lot of the picks and the shovels. Investing in companies like Anthropic, for example, through proxies, companies that own, you know, a large share of Anthropic that might be publicly traded. I'm investing in companies of course, like Nvidia, companies like Amazon that I think will benefit from the overall kind of AI efficiency trade as opposed to investing a lot of money in highly speculative startups that might not even be around six months because the AI has kind of overrun.
- [72:55]
Mark Moss
Yeah, yeah, let's, let's pivot gears a little bit. You know, we're talking about AI, which we both agree you've said it's going to be the fastest, most transformative technology we've ever seen. Each technology is, but at the same time then it creates these pendulum swings. And so we had talked about earlier, before we started recording about some of the things you're focused on now, which is more like experiential in real life, like you run the Pokeman conventions, for example. So as we go more and more towards online reality or virtual reality, then there's more of this craving, nostalgia for in real life events, events with people, experiences, things like that. How are you thinking about that today? Is that part of this trend that you're picking up?
- [73:42]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, I think. And, and again, going, studying history, there's precedent for this. Right. So anytime we've had like a tech, a leap in technology or innovation, there seems to be a near equal thirst to adopt that for all the cool things that you can do that you could never do before. And also an interest in nostalgia and you know, the way things used to be because that's obviously very comfortable for us as humans. So I think that trend will likely continue. And you know, the opportunities in the nostalgia space are a little bit easier to wrap your head around because they kind of have some of the more traditional moats. So yeah, I helped fund and start a company called Collecticon about Four years ago, it's turned into the largest Pokemon trade show in the world. We'll do 20 shows this year. I own. I own some restaurants in my home city of Dallas, Chelsea Corner, Mila, Butterfingers, and opening up a new one, Sunshine Flowers, where it becomes a third space for people. Right. People that want to kind of unwind and not. Not be digitally connected. I think there will continue to be a thirst for that, even though the restaurant business is very hard other ways. I, you know, I think experiential travel will be a very large sector for many years.
- [75:11]
Mark Moss
Wouldn't all travel be experiential?
- [75:13]
Chris Camillo
Well, you know, yes, but I think just people really leaning in to just that level of connectivity. Right. So when you look at things like the private jet business, for example, and I'm kind of getting involved in that, I'm opening up a private jet brokerage showroom in Dallas. People want to maximize every minute of their free time. They want the party to start before they get to the destination. Yeah. So. So, you know, I say 15 years ago, the only people that flew private jets were CEOs and billionaires, and now, you know, it's crypto kids and trust fund kids and content creators and quite honestly, anybody that can afford it because it's part of that experience. Right. And people are valuing experiences, I think, more today than they ever have before because it's something that is just totally different. Different. And it's certainly something that's generational for me. You know, I've been grinding since I was 13. I've been, you know, most of my life has been in intangibles, so I'm pivoting towards doing fun businesses with my friends. Right. Things that I can have those experiences with, you know, in the back half of my life.
- [76:32]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [76:33]
Chris Camillo
I think everyone's trying to look for purpose. Right. And you know, my purpose has always been philanthropic, so I'm leaning into my charitable foundation, which I'm trying to build and doing good in the world. And I'm really spending a more time today strategizing how can we change the world of philanthropy to be more productive. Right. To be more intimately part of people's lives and something that we can trust.
- [76:59]
Mark Moss
Yeah. How do you think about that?
- [77:02]
Chris Camillo
I think that world has been on an island for too long. Right. And I think charity. Charity generally. Right. I think people just generally are not. Are too far removed from it, and they think it's something I live my life. Maybe I donate money, maybe I don't, but I don't really Trust a lot of things. So a lot of us will just donate money to things that are very close to us in our communities because we can see it and we could feel it. I would love people to become way more engaged with philanthropy from day one. Right. And to have it be a bigger part of their life and to have more people from the business world deeply engage in philanthropy. So we can kind of raise the degree of trust that we have in terms of our ability to donate time and money. Money that will actually have a real durable, lasting impact on the world and actually create change.
- [78:01]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [78:02]
Chris Camillo
As opposed to something that just maybe makes us feel good.
- [78:05]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [78:05]
Chris Camillo
Right. And so, like, I think there's a lot of work to be done. Yeah. In that model and no one's really out there trying.
- [78:14]
Mark Moss
Do you have any ideas?
- [78:16]
Chris Camillo
I. I'm in the very early stages of it, but I, I think, think we need intermediaries almost in the same way that, you know, you have. Not a lot of people have a wealth manager. Right. And that wealth manager kind of holds their hand through the journey of saving and investing and planning out their future. I foresee there being roles where, especially for the ultra high net worth, which is becoming a much larger portion of humanity today. Right. Like they're. The ultra high net worth worth demographic is massive today relative to what it was 20 years ago. Yeah. I think there needs to be maybe a channel and, you know, people there to kind of hold their hand through that process. Right. That are not necessarily incentivized for the end. Charity.
- [79:10]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [79:10]
Chris Camillo
Right. Like. Like, why don't. If we care about this so much and we should, like, why don't we treat it just as importantly as everything else in our life?
- [79:19]
Mark Moss
I think the thing is, years ago I was on a. I was flying first class and I'm sitting next to a guy, so he's, you know, well off. We kind of started talking. I don't talk to a lot of people when I'm flying typically, but we started talking and he was like a high end consultant and we kind of got into a little bit of politics and he's, you know, I'm for small government and less taxes and more freedom. He was for the opposite it. And we kind of got into charity and, you know, the government needs to take care of all these people and welfare and this and that. And I said, let me just ask you a personal question. You don't have to answer this, but just let me ask you a personal question. Like how much of your wealth do you give to charity? And he Kind of thought about for a second and then sort of was reluctant to answer. And he's like, none. And I'm like, that's why you think the government has to take our money to help other people, because you're not doing it. But that being said, this is an area I spent a lot of time thinking about. That being said, like, I don't think just giving money is the answer. Because, like. Like anyone who's had kids realizes, like, the best joy in life is having other people have joy. So when you. When your kids have the joy, it's better than any joy you could have on yourself. And so, like, when you go and you meet the kids. Just a few weeks ago, I was down in Mexico and went to this orphanage, and, you know, I saw the kids. I was actually talking to my daughter about this last night. I want to take her down there. And when you see the kids and you see where they're living and you see the joy from just a small little couple things.
- [80:37]
Chris Camillo
Things.
- [80:37]
Mark Moss
That's. That's the thing, right? But, like, then what are those things that you would help? So then, like, what is the problem that you see in the world? Like, Disney entrepreneur would focus on? Like, what's the problem that I think I could solve? Tony Robbins is focused on feeding people. Maybe I want to help people have clean water. Maybe I want people to have education, right? So, like, what's the problem that I think? And, like, how could I solve that problem? And then, like, how could I be involved in that, right? And not just write a check? Because if you just write a time check, it's sort of like, dead and you don't really feel it. And I think. And then I. One layer more, I think about, like, I was kind of creating this movement years ago, and I haven't fully built it out. I haven't at the time, but maybe in the back half of my career I'll focus on. But it was a vacation with a purpose. So, like, I don't want to go do things I don't like, but if they're things I already like doing. So I was on a dirt. I ride. I ride dirt bikes through Mexico. So I was on a dirt bike trip, and we went to the orphanage. I'm on a surf trip, and then we go to. So I'm like, vacationing. I got spare time. Let me go to the orphanage and I can put things together that then make it fun. Versus, like, I was doing construction projects down in Puerto Escondido, Mexico, and I hate construction projects. And after that, I was like, hey, I told the guy that I was helping, I'm like, I'm never gonna do that again. I'll pay to hire people, but I ain't doing that. But then, like, we do other events for the kids and I love it. So, like, find something that you're passionate about, a problem you want to, to solve. Try to get involved personally, and I think that's where you get the real reward.
- [82:03]
Chris Camillo
I, I also think we don't have enough people that are truly innovative, aggressive, you know, leaders that from a very early age are going all in to solve these problems. And I, I, you know, transparently, and this is why it's on my mind. I, I had a huge opportunity last week. I've been working with, you know, the beast foundation, Mr. Beast for years, and they invited me to Ghana and I spent some time with them and him and basically seeing everything that they're doing there. Yeah. And they're taking such a data driven approach, a highly strategic approach to building sustainable, durable change to remove kids from child labor. And if you're not in the weeds kind of seeing this firsthand, you just wouldn't even believe it, but, you know, what they're doing is basically trying to build a template that can be replicated all around the world. And it's not something that I would have believed was even possible until I saw it with my own eyes. And to see young people. I think he's like 28. To see him dedicating that much of his life when he could be doing anything he wants. Right.
- [83:16]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [83:17]
Chris Camillo
And he's just in the weeds, needs trying to solve this very difficult problem because, yeah, we've donated money forever, but child labor, the needle hasn't moved at all.
- [83:28]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [83:28]
Chris Camillo
Why? And so, like, let's actually treat this problem like a business. Yeah. Let's try to actually figure out where is the solution, how can we solve this? Let's try to prove that we can solve this with hard data.
- [83:41]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [83:42]
Chris Camillo
And then replicate it. Because, listen, there's so much wealth in this world. If you can prove the model, I think the floodgates will open in terms of people saying, hey, I will financially support that if you can prove there's a sustainable difference. Right. As opposed to just writing a blank check to a school that maybe closes five years later because there was no one to follow up. And it really was never done in the right way to begin with.
- [84:08]
Mark Moss
Yeah.
- [84:10]
Chris Camillo
And so I think we have a long way to go when it comes to how we think about philanthropy and
- [84:15]
Mark Moss
like, But I think even that example, which is a great example, I remember a couple years ago he went and built a, dug a bunch of wells, water, you know, wells that was amazing. He got a lot of hate for that, which is crazy. The government was mad that he went to solve these problems. But I think, you know, back to this entrepreneur thing and, and as you said, most of these high net worth individuals have created wealth by solving problems. So it's like I'm going to announce, I'm going to go solve this problem, problem digging wells, feeding people, whatever it may be, and then other people will align. Just like you'd invest in a business. I agree. In Uber, I'll invest into Uber. So I agree in this business proposal that you have. I understand it's charity, but I recognize the problem, I see the problem that you do. I, I see your solution and I'll back it. So it sort of fits more of like a problem solution framework that business owners and entrepreneurs, high net worth individuals are used to as opposed to like Red Cross, you know, kind of a thing.
- [85:05]
Chris Camillo
And listen, also we're so concerned now that AI and robotics are going to displace human workers, which we don't agree with. But yeah, in the event that that was even remotely true, how many other problems do we have that we could reallocate resources towards to solve? Right. Being in, you know, philanthropic issues around the world. So it's like there are massive problems to solve still. And I think there's just massive opportunity there. And with the help of AI, we've never been a better, in a better place to be able to solve these problems now that we have all these tool sets for the first time in humanity.
- [85:45]
Mark Moss
Well, that's a good place to wrap it up. I want to ask one big question because you've, like I said, I watched a bunch of your content and you've made a bunch of predictions that have been good. What's one prediction for 2030? It's about four years away way that most people will think is, is absolutely crazy.
- [86:03]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, I think, you know, I've been heavily involved in robotics the last four years, humanoid robotics specifically. And there are a lot of naysayers that are saying this is never going to be real. I think Mark Cuban came out this week and said this is not the right form factor. You know, I'm almost a thousand hours of deep research into the sector and I've spent time with most of the leading companies in humanoid robotics. I do believe that on the long side, people's expectations and timelines are way off. Nothing is going to happen as quickly as people think it's going to happen. But I think 2030 is the year that we are going to see so much traction in full blown humanoid robotics. What I call the infinite labor machine that people will universally believe that we have have created, invented a scalable infinite labor machine that will radically change the earth, Radically change every industry. A third of of global GDP is physical human labor. Yeah. And it is the bottleneck for almost everything that we're trying to achieve in the world. And I think we will come to terms with the fact that the solution will be here by 2030. Just knowing the companies, knowing the trajectory that they're on, understanding where they are both on the hardware side and on the neural network foundation model side, which is the brain of the robot. I think give us three years, three to four years, people are not even going to believe how big of a deal this is going to be by 2003. So Elon talks about this. It's going to redefine economies. It's the biggest thing they ever had happened. Jensen starting to say the same thing. Yeah. Those that are on the inside can clearly see that while there are still numerous issues that need to be tackled on the hardware and on the foundation model side for robots, none of those issues are insurmountable. So there's not one single issue that we're like, I don't know how we're going to solve it.
- [88:20]
Mark Moss
Right.
- [88:20]
Chris Camillo
Even hands, which are very difficult. Yeah.
- [88:22]
Mark Moss
Elon said that's the hardest thing.
- [88:23]
Chris Camillo
It's the hardest thing. But like I saw hand yesterday even with a hand company and blew my mind. Like completely blew my mind. How quickly we're accelerating the development of hands. Are we there yet now where we can thread a needle with a robot hand? Absolutely not. Is the pressure sensing there? I mean, the human hand is so unbelievable. People just do not understand how unbelievable the sensory is in your fingers and the pressure points. We are not going to get there for a very long time, but we don't need to get there that quickly. Right. Like where hands are going in the next couple years is going to solve most of the applications that we need to be able to handle for physical robots. And we will have robots that will be able to essentially do almost anything by the 2000 and 30s and we'll have a clear sight line to that, I think globally by 2030. And it will shock people.
- [89:20]
Mark Moss
Yeah. Well, that's a big call. That's a real. That's a real big call. I mean, I know, Elon's calling for it as well. I have my doubts, but we're going to hold you to that one and we'll, we'll see where we're at after that. I'll just say, you know, for everyone listening, I mean, if Chris can turn 20,000 into 70 million by reading Tik Tok comments, then maybe you can't do the same. But you should be paying attention to what's going on. Spot the trends, connect the dots, and maybe you can have success as well. Anywhere that you want to send people to follow you.
- [89:49]
Chris Camillo
Yeah, just at Chris Camillo on X. And Dumb Money Live is our YouTube show. But Dumb Money TV has all the socials. And we just do this for fun. Like we don't monetize. We're just three friends. We, we just want to bring every investor in the world, every human on earth into the investor class. That, that's our goal. Goal. And we share. I share every idea I have publicly.
- [90:10]
Mark Moss
Yes.
- [90:10]
Chris Camillo
I just share it openly. Now, I'm not saying you should mirror my trades, but poke holes in my ideas, take them and do your own homework. And I like to collaborate with other investors on ideas. Yeah. Good.
- [90:23]
Mark Moss
All right, thanks so much.
- [90:28]
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Mark Moss
Find your next obsession on Prime Video.
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Mark Moss
We're not saying you need another obsession,
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Chris Camillo
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Chris Camillo
We've got bingeworthy series.
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