The Marketing Millennials — Bathroom Break #95

"The Attribution Strategy Every Marketer Should Use"

Host: Daniel Murray
Guest/Co-host: Jay Schwedelson
Date: February 16, 2026

Episode Overview

In this brisk, high-energy "Bathroom Break" mini-episode, Daniel Murray and Jay Schwedelson cut through the clichés around marketing attribution. Together, they challenge the industry’s overreliance on last-touch and single-channel models, offering practical tips for marketers to measure true campaign impact—without falling for misleading data. The discussion blends humor, real-world tactics, and a refreshingly honest tone as they highlight actionable attribution strategies every marketer should consider.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Broken State of Attribution

• Both hosts agree that standard attribution measurement—especially last-touch—is deeply flawed.
• Jay (02:53): “In general, attribution measurement is complete garbage. Daniel, are you on the garbage train?”
• Daniel (02:59): Attribution should be used as “a compass” for directional guidance, not a turn-by-turn GPS dictating every move. He warns marketers against “using it just as the roadmap.”

The Perils of Last-Touch Attribution

• Daniel calls out the industry’s tendency to double down on channels like Google Search, simply because they often appear as the last step before conversion.
• Daniel (03:51): "Most people have done the research before they get to your site... There had to be an action before they came to your website. People don’t want to dig deeper into that."
• Jay predicts that, with the rise of AI tools and LLMs, the issue will only worsen:
• Jay (04:31): "There's going to be more last-touch attribution assigned to these AI tools, even though it's the same stupidity as assigning it to Google search."

Practical Attribution Tactics

1. Holdout Groups

• Jay introduces holdout testing as a powerful but underutilized measurement tactic:
  • Take a random 5–10% segment of your database and isolate it from campaigns (no emails, retargeting, or remarketing)
  • At campaign end, compare outcomes (new customers, conversions) between the marketed group and the holdout group
  • The “delta” is your true incremental lift
  • Jay (05:08): “Did our marketing have absolutely no impact? Because the holdout group performed exactly the same? The delta... is your real performance.”
  • Notable: Admits it's “not an exact science,” but "gives a much better view" of marketing effectiveness.

2. Geo-Based Testing

• Daniel shares experience using geographically isolated campaigns (e.g., out-of-home, radio, CTV) to measure lift:
  • Establish a baseline, then observe if there's an incremental lift in metrics like branded search.
  • Daniel (06:23): "Geotesting... will really tell you if something is lifting up in that area. It’s more expensive though."

3. Multi-Model Attribution

• Multiple models (multi-touch attribution, media mix modeling, incrementality testing) should run in parallel for a holistic view.
• Daniel highlights platform bias:
  • Daniel (07:50): “Facebook’s a walled garden, Google’s a walled garden. They're going to make it look better because that’s how you spend more on those platforms.”

4. Self-Reported Attribution

• Easiest tactic: Add a “Where did you hear about us?” field to site forms.
  • Yields directional insights on channel performance, straight from the customer.
  • Used to gauge the effectiveness of newer channels like YouTube.
  • Daniel (07:50): "It’s not exact science, but it works sometimes."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jay on Attribution Models (02:53):

  “In general, attribution measurement is complete garbage. Daniel, are you on the garbage train?”

• Daniel on Attribution as a Compass (02:59):

  “Attribution should be seen as a compass where you directionally can find some answers. But don’t use it as like a gps.”

• Jay on Holdout Groups (05:08):

  “The delta between your holdout group and the people you marketed to is your real performance.”

• Daniel on Platform Bias (07:50):

  “Facebook’s a walled garden, Google’s a walled garden... So actually, having multiple things going at a time and compare and trust it.”

• Jay on Self-Reported Attribution's Simplicity (07:20):

  “The easiest thing to do is just add like 'Where did you hear about us?' on your form...”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:39 — The Real Problem with Attribution: "Attribution measurement is complete garbage."
• 03:43 — Why Last-Touch Attribution Fails: Daniel's critique of over-investment in Google Search.
• 04:31 — The Coming AI Attribution Problem: Jay predicts AI tools will worsen last-touch bias.
• 05:08 — Holdout Group Testing Explained: Jay breaks down the how-to and value.
• 06:23 — Geo-Based Testing: Daniel explains geographic lift testing.
• 07:20 — Multi-Channel Problems: Assigning too much value to a single channel is a red flag.
• 07:50 — Multi-Model and Self-Reported Attribution: Practical tools for real-world marketers.

Tangent: Olympics & Curling (08:57–10:38)

• The show closes with a humorous digression about winter sports, with Jay and Daniel riffing on the relatability of Winter Olympic events.
  • Daniel (09:06): “I didn’t grow up in cold, so it’s so interesting to me how good people are on these things...”
  • Jay (09:46): “Here’s my problem with curling... I don’t believe those are the best curlers in the world... they’re just the people who tried curling.”
• Lighthearted banter wraps the episode, ending on a humorous, personable note.

Summary Takeaways

• Attribution is a directional tool, not an exact roadmap. Don’t fall for last-touch illusions; diversify your testing and measurement tactics.
• Holdout group experiments and geo-based lift tests—while imperfect—give a much more accurate picture of true campaign impact than dashboard attributions.
• A mix of modeling, including self-reported data, provides the best real-world feedback—and enables smarter spend and channel strategy.
• Stay skeptical of metrics handed to you by the channels themselves—their incentives aren’t aligned with your truth.
• Keep your approach flexible, empirical, and holistic—wisdom straight from marketers in the trenches.

For more actionable tips and unfiltered marketing wisdom, tune in weekly to The Marketing Millennials’ Bathroom Break series.