Podcast Summary: The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Episode: Dan Ives: How To Pick Generational Tech Winners
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Wilfred Frost
Guest: Dan Ives (Managing Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wedbush Securities, Founder of Uncle Ives ETF, Chairman of Orbs)

Overview

This episode features renowned tech analyst Dan Ives discussing strategies for identifying "generational winners" in technology investing. The conversation traverses the evolution of the AI sector, lessons from past tech cycles, profiles of the leading innovators, the role of retail investors, and Dan Ives's current ventures including his AI-focused ETF and the Orbs authentication company. The tone is optimistic, insightful, and occasionally iconoclastic, delivering actionable wisdom for investors at all levels.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Anatomy of Tech Investing Success

• Beyond the Spreadsheet: Dan Ives emphasizes that great tech winners aren’t found through valuation alone.

  • “If you focus just on valuation, you’ve missed every transformational growth stock the last 20 years.” (A, 00:14 & 06:13)
  • Picking winners involves betting on innovative leaders (Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, Lisa Su, Alex Karp).

• Gut and Groundwork: More than models — it’s about spending time “feet on the street” worldwide, not “from the 25th floor of a New York City or London office building.” (A, 04:04)

• Navigating Downturns: Cites moments like the US-China tech tariff scare as true “gut check” events that test conviction in long-term tech trends. (A, 03:43 & 04:34)

  “That was more as a US citizen than as an analyst... those tariffs, what potentially that could do, that would have cut US tech off at the knees.” (A, 04:34)

2. AI: Not a Bubble Yet — “Still 10:30pm at the Party”

• Comparisons to the Dotcom Era:

  • Ives repeatedly references the late 1990s, asserting that we’re still early (“1996, not 1999”), since only 3% of US companies have adopted AI; Europe/Asia are even earlier. (A, 10:05)

  “The AI party started 9pm, it’s now 10:30pm, party goes till 4am… Bulls and bears meet up at 6am.” (A, 10:56)

• The Hyperscalers & The AI Stack:

  • Microsoft, Google, Amazon as hyperscale “foundation,” but second/third-tier companies (e.g., Palantir, Snowflake, MongoDB, CoreWeave) will reap vast rewards.
  • Each dollar of Nvidia spend translates to $8–$10 across the ecosystem. (A, 12:00)

• Winner Takes All?

  • Dan does not see AI as a winner-take-all space; expects multiple major players and “derivative” beneficiaries.

3. Profiles in Tech Leadership: Betting on CEOs

• Jensen Huang (Nvidia): The “godfather of AI,” praised for vision despite doubters in 2021–2022.
  • “He’s badass.” (B, 00:24 & 16:03)
• Satya Nadella (Microsoft):
  • “We’re not in the AI revolution if it’s not for Nadella recognizing OpenAI early.” (A, 08:40)
• Elon Musk (Tesla):
  • “Tesla is Musk. Musk is Tesla. But this is the most important chapter I think ever in Tesla’s growth story, the autonomous robotics future... you’re seeing a wartime CEO again.” (A, 00:57 & 26:58)
  • Ranks Musk #1 among living innovators.
• Tim Cook (Apple):
  • Criticizes Apple’s initial AI inertia, predicts “AI app store” and paid AI models, but remains bullish due to unmatched install base.
  • “Cook... is not going to hand the keys to whoever takes over Apple, with an AI strategy blowing in the wind.” (A, 25:25–26:25)
• TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor):
  • Called “the hearts and lungs of the whole supply chain,” underappreciated but essential. (A, 28:28)

4. Valuation and Market Risks

• Multiples in Context:

  • Nvidia at high 20s P/E, but the street is underestimating true growth by 25–30%.
  • Accepts that key tech stocks are expensive by past metrics, but “the growth is 4x.”

  “There’s two types of people. It’ll be like 1950 going to Vegas: ‘we’re gonna build the strip,’ or ‘it’s just desert.’” (A, 18:22)

• Bearish Concerns:

  • Addresses fears about AI “capex treadmill” (Meta/Nvidia), potential cloud overbuild, and political risk (TSMC/China).
  • On shorts: “It’s easy to be a short from the 25th floor… I want to see those shorts at fabs in Taiwan like we are.” (A, 20:15 & 21:34)

5. The Evolving Role of Retail Investors

• From "Thanksgiving Checkers" to Major Players:

  • Retail investors have caught up, due to democratized information and tech. Held onto stocks during panics while institutions bailed.
  • “Retail has a huge seat at the table.” (A, 31:34)

• AI & Market Arbitrage:

  • While AI closes some information gaps, belief in deep research and ground truth remains his differentiator.

6. Inside the Ives ETF (Ticker: IVE) and Orbs

• The Ives ETF:

  • Launched mid-2025, now over $1bn AUM, 30 “high conviction” AI-driven tech names — across chips, software, cybersecurity, infrastructure, and selected derivatives. (B, 33:40 & A, 33:59)

  • Rebalances quarterly, includes big and niche picks.

    • Sample Picks Discussed:
      • Iron: Energy for datacenters, “diamond in the rough.”
      • Pegasystems: IT tools for enterprise AI buildouts.
      • CoreWeave: Infrastructure for AI workloads.

  • High expected volatility, but outsized performance potential.

• Orbs:

  • Human-proof authentication via iris-scanning orbs — a Sam Altman-linked crypto/AI startup focused on enterprise identity.
  • “Early days in terms of this build-out... more of an AI tech company meets crypto.” (A, 38:08)

7. Crypto & Treasury Companies

• Sees crypto in “consolidation” not decline, expects increasing legitimation and lower volatility as institutional and governmental adoption grows. (A, 41:06)

8. Personal Resilience & Style

• Unapologetically Different:
  • Known for bright, distinctive clothing (now has his own line, danivesclothing.com).
  • “You have to have thick skin... when things are tough, don’t hide, be comfortable in your own skin.” (A, 42:23)

9. Final Investment Advice

“Understand your risk profile and build out your investment profile and stick to it... have your thesis, have your winners, have your process, but don’t let the nervous periods get you off your process.” (A, 44:38)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “If you focus just on valuation, you’ve missed every transformational growth stock the last 20 years.” – Dan Ives (00:14, 06:13)
• “You can’t call tech from the 25th floor... you got to be feet on the street.” – Dan Ives (04:04)
• “Tesla is Musk. Musk is Tesla. But this is the most important chapter I think ever in Tesla’s growth story, the autonomous robotics future.” – Dan Ives (00:57, 26:58)
• “We’ve said like this AI party started 9pm, it’s now 10:30pm, party goes to 4am.” – Dan Ives (10:56)
• “For every dollar spent on Nvidia chip, we estimate there’s an $8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of the tech.” – Dan Ives (12:00)
• “Retail has a huge seat at the table... They held stocks, institutional sold it.” – Dan Ives (31:34)
• “You have to have thick skin. If you are, I think, a little different... Don’t hide, be comfortable in your own skin.” – Dan Ives (42:23)
• “Have your thesis, have your winners, have your process, but don’t let the nervous periods get you off your process.” – Dan Ives (44:38)

Segment Timestamps

• [00:00–06:13] Philosophies on picking tech winners, leadership, and seeing beyond valuation
• [08:33–12:00] AI cycle positioning, market analogies, and winners in hyperscale/cloud
• [13:27–16:03] Large language models, OpenAI vs Gemini, and Nvidia’s competitive edge
• [18:06–21:34] Valuations, bear cases, risks, and the “realities” on the data center buildout
• [24:02–26:25] Apple’s challenge with AI, Tim Cook, future of the device and software
• [26:53–29:32] Tesla, Musk, and the next chapter for robotics/autonomy
• [30:36–34:55] Rise of retail investors, Ives ETF revealed
• [35:16–36:51] Specific ETF picks: Iron, Pegasystems, CoreWeave
• [37:12–39:07] Orbs: Human-proof authentication and AI/crypto convergence
• [39:46–41:55] Crypto market dynamics and future stability
• [42:23–44:38] Personal resilience, distinctiveness, clothing
• [44:38–end] Final investment advice

Conclusion: The Edge for Master Investors

This episode distills decades of tech investing wisdom with clear application to today’s AI-driven market. Dan Ives’s philosophy: Favor innovation and leadership over rigid valuation, do your own homework globally, and stick to your thesis through market noise. His stories and analogies offer vivid context for this extraordinary tech cycle, making this episode invaluable for investors seeking to pick the next “generational winners.”

End of Summary