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- [00:00]
Matt Jones
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- [00:57]
Crystal Ball
21 terms and conditions apply.
- [00:59]
Ryan
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- [01:30]
Unknown
Lenovo.
- [01:34]
Ryan
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- [02:05]
Unknown
All right, welcome everybody. It is episode two of the Matt Jones show and for this episode I thought I would bring on someone with ties to Louisville, Kentucky. I met this woman in Louisville many years ago when we tried to do a project and it was a lot of fun. Crystal Ball. She has been on everything from MSNBC to a number of different podcasts. She does Breaking Points with Crystal and Sagar. I think I got that right.
- [02:33]
Crystal Ball
You nailed it.
- [02:33]
Unknown
I think I got that right and has been on everything I Mean, she's been on every. If there's a channel. Crystal, you've been on it at some point. Joe Rogan podcast. You've been everywhere. Nice to have you on.
- [02:45]
Crystal Ball
It's nice to see you, Matt. It's a pleasure. It wasn't that many years ago, was it? I don't know.
- [02:49]
Unknown
You know, it does feel like. It doesn't feel like that. We used to go to lunch in Louisville at the Thai Place on Frankfort Avenue and argue about things, and now we're 15 years later, and here we are.
- [03:02]
Crystal Ball
Yep. Indeed. Well, it's a pleasure and I'm honored to be guest number two. I didn't get the number one slot, but I'll take number two.
- [03:07]
Unknown
Well, yeah, Bomani was on my first one, so I decided to have him back again. Now, let me. You do politics, but what I really like about you is, is even though you're on the left like me, you come at things from a different perspective. So if somebody was to say to you, crystal, explain your sort of political ideology in a short phrase, how would you explain it?
- [03:33]
Crystal Ball
I mean, I would describe myself as populist left. So for me, and a sort of economic analysis is really central to the way I view politics. And that doesn't mean that other things aren't important, that I don't focus on other things. Certainly right now in Trump 2.0, I'm focusing on a lot to do with deportations to due process and all those sorts of things as well. But, you know, at my core, that's. That's kind of where I come from. And, you know, it's. It's informed by this. Another thing I think you and I both have in common. Like, you know, I'm from a rural area. I'm from an area that is much more conservative. So I think that has affected my political views of, you know, having that kind of outsider perspective, viewing things a little differently. And then what was really formative for me was I lived in the industrial Midwest, very close to East Palestine, where there was that horrific train explosion.
- [04:21]
Unknown
In Ohio.
- [04:22]
Crystal Ball
All of that. Yeah, in Ohio. And, you know, that area was completely decimated by this bipartisan agenda for NAFTA and for, you know, opening up permanent normal trade relations with China. And it really was a bipartisan project. And I saw the way that town after town there was just devastated and the impact that had on people's lives. And so that really kind of opened up my eyes to the political system and has made it so. Even though, you know, I'm definitely on the left, there's no doubt about that. You know, I tend to vote for, you know, I vote for Democrats because they're more aligned with my view than others. It's also given me a sort of critical eye towards both parties, I would say.
- [05:03]
Unknown
Yeah, you definitely are critical towards both parties. But I love that you said populist left, because I don't think there's a lot of people like you and I for real in this, in politics. And what I mean by that is for you and I, the working class, I think, has always been the centerpiece of what we believe in. And people will say that, but then they don't necessarily actually do the things that lead to it. I mean, when I try to think of people in the Democratic Party, now, if you're just talking on economics, maybe John Fetterman, Bernie has parts of it, but then parts of it can go the other way, in my opinion. Do you, do you agree with me that there are not a lot of people, first of all, there are not a lot of politicians that are Democrats in office. From the places we're talking about rural America, there's just not anywhere. Right?
- [06:00]
Crystal Ball
Yeah. Yeah, I think that I agree with pieces of that. So I'm much more, you know, of a Bernie bro than, than you are. And I actually can't stand John Fetterman because I think he cares more about a foreign country than he does about his own constituents. With his obsession about.
- [06:15]
Unknown
Did you feel that way before was a, like before he was a senator? Because that has become a big thing with him running.
- [06:21]
Crystal Ball
I mean, I think, I genuinely think his stroke has changed his personality based on the reporting that's out there. And he is very different from when he was mayor of Braddock and when he was lieutenant governor and when he was running for the Senate. So, no, I had high hopes for John Federer. I was very excited. I will say I, you know, I overlooked some things about him because I loved, I loved that he came out of this blue collar, working class background, that he had this ability to relate to people that, you know, I thought is pretty unique in a Democratic Party that's mostly populated by, by lawyers and, you know, a lot of folks who don't have that like, direct working class touch and connect. But I think he's been just a completely different politician than, than what I expected when he was running. And like I said, from the reporting from his staffers, from his own, you know, wife, it seems like the stroke genuinely did. He's even acknowledged this in some ways has genuinely changed his approach and the things that he's focused on. But, you know, I think we have a system where politicians on both sides of the aisle oftentimes are more in touch with the interests of wealthy donors than they are with the constituents that they purport to serve. Now, I happen to think in this Trump administration, we've seen an extraordinary acceleration of what was already a fundamental sort of, you know, tilted towards the rich system. When you've got the richest man on the planet with all this power, when you've got all of these billionaires lined up behind Trump, when you have Trump himself using the presidency as a tool for him to make personal business deals and, you know, benefit his own family, personally, I think you've seen an acceleration of those trends, but I think the seeds of it were planted in both parties long ago.
- [08:10]
Unknown
But why do you think he's so popular, though? I mean, this is the question I get asked you, and I end up in these groups of, like, liberal intellectuals, none of whom have ever spent much time in places like Kentucky or rural Ohio. And yet they opine and they go. A lot of these people like Trump, they're voting against their interests. And I try to articulate why. I think they do. Most people listening to this have probably heard my articulation. What would be yours? Why do you think Trump is so popular in these areas when what you're saying, I think, is objectively correct?
- [08:43]
Crystal Ball
I mean, I think it comes from a betrayal. I think it comes from 40 years of the rich getting super rich and wages being completely stagnant. I think it comes from an economic collapse in 2008. I think it comes from the media and the political class lying us into war with regard to a rock. I think it comes from this fundamental sense of betrayal. And so it reads as truth telling when you have someone who says things that are, you know, completely wild, and it feels like, okay, well, at least this person is different. And if the, you know, the people I hate hate him, maybe that speaks well to him.
- [09:21]
Unknown
See, I think that's huge. By the way, the people you hate hate him. Because I think a lot of the people like in Kentucky, they hate white liberals more than they hate anybody. Especially, like, coastal, academic white liberals. I think they hate them. And then the fact they hate Trump makes them love Trump more.
- [09:42]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, I think what I've. I felt very in touch with the, like, understanding where Trump voters were coming from in 2016. I really got it. It's harder for me to get it now because at this point, it's like, okay, but we saw what he did in office. He gave rich people a giant tax cut. Like he passed Paul Ryan's, you know, dream tax cut. That was his primary accomplishment in office. He didn't do the things that he claimed he was going to do. And so it's honestly, it's harder for me now to really understand the enduring popularity among his base. Now. I think it's also important to put in context he isn't that like, as a historic matter, he is the least popular president that we have had at this point in his presidency. And, you know, initially he was doing better than he did in his first term. At this point, his popularity levels have sunk to, you know, the level of sort of divisiveness that he experienced during his first term as well. But he demonstrates the fact that if you have this core group of committed supporters who are just absolutely ride or die. And when you have to. Your point about the Democratic Party, you know, a feckless party on the other side that's always just putting their finger in the wind and doesn't seem to really stand or be willing to fight for anything, who put up a candidate that I think was flawed in any number of ways, then that is going to create a large amount of political power. I think Trump has understood that perhaps better than anyone else. And listen, the other thing, Matt, like, he's freaking funny. Like, I wish he wasn't so damn funny.
- [11:21]
Unknown
You think that's a big part of it, the fact that he gets up there and it's like an entertainment show. I mean, he is. He is a television. He has been in the public spotlight since the 80s primarily as a figure of entertainment, even when he was a business person. And he just knows how to entertain, right?
- [11:37]
Crystal Ball
He knows how to tell a story. I mean, gets up there. He told that story about, like, his fat friend, who's a businessman, who was taking the fat shot.
- [11:43]
Unknown
He's fat. And a lot of people go, you know what? My friend is fat, too. And that's kind of like. It's a amazing. By just using normal language, Crystal, that everyday people do. They don't hear politicians talk like that, but that's how they talk.
- [11:57]
Crystal Ball
I think comedy is a superpower. Like, I think that's something you benefit from as well, because you're a very funny person, too, just naturally. And, you know, you see these comedians who have these giant podcasts now are really influential. The Tim Dillons, the Joe Rogans, the, you know, Theo Vaughn's of the world. And so I do think if you are Just a funny, genuinely funny person. You also get away with a hell of a lot more, I think you're right, than anyone else. And I think that's one of his secrets of success as well.
- [12:25]
Unknown
You know, you mentioned those guys on the podcast, so they. I think in 2024, the sort of Bro Sphere podcast did make some level of difference. Whether or not they made a huge difference will maybe never really been known. But the whole. Those guys you mentioned, I think Rogan, Theo, Vaughan, Portnoy, like that crew, I think did make a difference. So that has led to people going, well, how do we get to have a liberal Joe Rogan? And I've had people sort of reach out to me as like, can you. Do you think you could be the liberal Joe Rogan? And I said, you know, I don't. I don't know that it works that easily. Do you think it's ridiculous, or do you think there is. There should be a reach out by Democrats to find someone who can speak to, quote, unquote, bro culture?
- [13:09]
Crystal Ball
I mean, I don't think that it's something that can just be, like, crafted in a lab, you know, I mean, you have the audience that you have, because that's organic to you. If some billionaire had approached you out of nowhere and it's like, we're gonna make the bro pod. Like, I just.
- [13:22]
Unknown
They can, though, if they want. Like, I'll take it. I just. I don't know if it would work.
- [13:26]
Crystal Ball
See a story today that there are billionaires. Yeah. Who are going in this direction. So, hey, you never know, Matt. This could be your ticket. But, yeah. I mean, here's the other thing is, number one, it has to be an organic growth audience situation. And there are people who are liberal or on the left who do have significant audiences. And as one of those people, I can tell you the Democratic establishment has been terrified of going on our show. Basically, the only. I shouldn't say the only, but one of the only politicians from on the Democratic side who's willing to go on with us is Congressman Ro Khanna from California, who's great. He mixes up. He'll go on with anyone. But by and large, they've been very fearful of these spaces because they're a little bit less controlled now, I would say the interviews that those guys gave to.
- [14:18]
Unknown
Oh, they're weak. They're weak. They don't. They don't challenge him at all. They don't challenge him at all.
- [14:22]
Crystal Ball
Right. And so he knew that and felt like he could go on. And I do think he got something out of it because rather than people feeling like this is someone who's extreme and who's a break from the norm or the mainstream in American politics, you listen to him for three hours on Joe. We're, oh, this is just like a normal guy. What's everybody on about? And meanwhile, now that he's back in office, he's doing even more extreme things than I had anticipated. I was, you know, very much accused of Trump derangement syndrome going into this election. So I think it did serve his purpose. And I do think that it is incumbent, even if you are a comedian, if you're going to host someone who's so powerful to do a little prep and be able to do a little bit of pushback, you know. But on the other hand, I also think Democrats, like, this is the world we live in. You gotta be prepared to swim those ponds.
- [15:10]
Unknown
Totally agree with you. And that, yeah, I think part of it is 98% of politicians, right or left, are not normal human beings. You almost have to be a psychopath to be in office. And I'm not even kidding about that. Like, you have to go through this where your family, your friends every. I mean, you, you and I have talked about when I was considering running for Senate and I knew what was going to, not just to me, but to everyone around me, and I wasn't willing to put my people through that. You almost have to be a psychopath to be like, yes, I want my family to be scrutinized. Yes, I want everything I say. So take that aside. You almost have to be a psychopath. Then most of those people are not interesting. They're not just compelling human beings as human beings, usually. And then those podcasts. The thing about a Theo, like Theo Vaughn is clearly right wing, but when he tells a story about eating pie, I can't help but laugh. You know what I mean? Like, the way he does it. And I just think the folks on our side, we try to be so issue oriented and you're an exception to this. It makes us hard. It makes it hard for us to just do what normal people do and sit and talk.
- [16:19]
Crystal Ball
I mean, I don't know how normal I am. Like, I'm a complete, you know, political nerd, whatever, like doing my thing. But I think your point is, is well taken. And, you know, I. So I also think Democrats, they haven't adjusted to the new media ecosystem and they also haven't. They're so risk averse.
- [16:39]
Unknown
Yes.
- [16:40]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, they're really terrified of saying the wrong thing. And having a bad news cycle. And what Trump and some other Republicans have recognized is even if it's a bad news cycle, if people move on, you move on. People move on. And if they're talking about you and you're driving the news cycle, that's actually better than just being boring and forgotten. So, you know, I think there's now, I do think now you're starting to see some Democrats try to like, you know, so who's good at it ones is Pete? I mean, I.
- [17:09]
Unknown
Do you think Pete's good at it?
- [17:11]
Crystal Ball
I do think Pete is good at it. Now, I'm not a big Pete fan. I think he is kind of psychopathic. But anyway, he is good at it. He goes on, you know, he went on what he wants.
- [17:21]
Unknown
And I actually thought he did a good job with Andrew Schwartz, and he.
- [17:23]
Crystal Ball
Did a good job there. Gavin Newsom launched his own podcast. I mean, that guy is.
- [17:29]
Unknown
But if you were to drive up what a sleazy politician looks like, wouldn't you pick him?
- [17:33]
Crystal Ball
Oh, absolutely. He looks like. I've always thought he looks like a vampire, you know, like from a vampire movie. Right?
- [17:41]
Unknown
Yeah. So I was down in London, Kentucky, where the tornado hit a couple days ago, and I was, I was driving around and, you know, that's my home area.
- [17:53]
Crystal Ball
And I. Oh, I didn't realize you're from that area.
- [17:54]
Unknown
Well, I'm from like, 45 minutes away, Middlesborough. I'm from southeast Kentucky. And London was kind of the big city when I was, when I was growing up. So I, I look around in Appalachia, and this would also be true in the Rust Belt. And, you know, I sort of wonder, is there anything that can be done to help economically? Leave aside all the reasons we were screwed, and There are many NAFTA's, one, the way we turned our backs on coal miners is one. But let's start in 2025, and let's say Matt Jones and Crystal Ball were in charge of policy to help turn around rural America. What would you suggest should be done?
- [18:39]
Crystal Ball
It's not easy. It's not an easy answer. But, I mean, here's where I actually think that there has been a shift in consensus that is positive that is now endangered by the excesses of Trump. And let me tell you what I mean by that. So Trump in his first term put some tariffs on China. I supported that because I think we should have a domestic manufacturing base. I think we should have incentives to locate those facilities in rural parts of the country and in industrial Midwestern parts. Of the country that have been left behind. I actually think that Governor Bashir has done a pretty good job with attracting a good bit of that investment to Kentucky. But you would, you would be able to speak to that more than, than I would be able to. That broke some of the, just blanket, you know, free trade, just up the gdp, doesn't matter who's getting screwed in the mix. That broke some of that consensus. And Joe Biden, although he didn't tout it effectively because he was like half dead and you know, it wasn't effectively sold to say the least, built on that and actually paired a protectionist trade policy with industrial policy. Just meaning that there were investments, there was, there were incentives for companies to invest. And for the first time really in our lifetimes, there was an increase in manufacturing jobs and a lot of that was going to rural areas, not so much the industrial Midwest, although there were some of that.
- [20:10]
Unknown
But you know, Kentucky Electric Battery, that's where we've seen it in like in Elizabeth, Smithtown and Bowling Green, these electric battery factor manufacturing, which in theory could be very good for that part of the state.
- [20:22]
Crystal Ball
Absolutely. And these are the, you know, this is the direction the world is going in. If you look at China, they are investing massive amounts in technological development both in terms of AI. And their electric car market is absolutely crushing us. Like the only reason anyone buys American EVs at this point is because you cannot get a Chinese one because their product is so much better and cheaper.
- [20:48]
Unknown
And they're crushing us in all of this AI, electric cars, I mean everything with this high level technology. Would you agree their development is killing us right now?
- [20:58]
Crystal Ball
Astounding. Yeah, that's, that's exactly right. And so in any case, I mean, I think that is the kernel of the answer is you have to do some, some protectionist trade policy. You have to pair it with industrial policy. And then I think you much need a much broader, you know, universalist. Like I think everyone should have health care and actually that would be a great thing for business because right now businesses have to carry half of the cost of private health care. And it's a huge cost for them. It's part of why labor in the US is much more expensive than other part of why. So I think, you know, you need to have some of that precarity taken out of American society as well. And I think you need to tax the rich more and use it to pay things for things like health care for everybody so that when people get sick they can go to the doctor that to Me is the direction. And when I say that I think Trump's agenda now is imperiling. It is when he came in and released his insane random tariffs across the board on this one and 50% on Lesotho. And we're going to, you know, tariff an island that only has penguins on it, and China tariffs are going to be 145%. You have, you are very much in danger of killing any view of protectionist trade policy, any, like, acceptance of tariffs whatsoever. And again, I'm someone who supported his original tariffs. I supported the Biden expansion of those tariffs and industrial policy. I'm starting to sound like some, you know, CNBC free trader because I'm so opposed to the way that he has done this. And I think it is creating a huge backlash across the board against anything that could actually be fruitful in this direction. And that's, that's one of the things that I'm actually really concerned about right now.
- [22:39]
Unknown
I think that's a really, really great point. Let me ask you, okay, so people, my friends who don't follow politics on a day to day basis, but who, who care and tend to lean left. So these are the people I went to college with, right? They will say to me, like, is the world ending because of Trump? Like, they have a very doomsday after Trump won the second time, a very doomsday philosophy, but they don't follow it on the day to you just kind of hear these little things. And I say this, and I hope this is true. I want to see if you agree. I say I think Trump has a uniquely talented ability to win people over and that Trumpism really doesn't extend beyond him. When other people try to copy him, it doesn't work. So I have some confidence that when he exits the stage, which hopefully is in 2028, but when he exits stage, that there will not. We won't go back to what it was before. But there's not gonna be a figure that can captivate and people just do whatever that person says. That's my hope. Do you think that's naive or true?
- [23:48]
Crystal Ball
No, I think that's reasonable. Like, I don't think there's any world in which a J.D. vance or a Don Jr. Or whoever is supposed to be the heir apparent is able to pull this off. I mean, you could see it even with Ron DeSantis who was trying to do like a Trumpian thing, and people were just like, I just, you're a dork.
- [24:04]
Unknown
It doesn't work. Yes, you're a dork.
- [24:06]
Crystal Ball
Exactly. So I do think there is something unique about Trump's appeal that is really not replicable. I also think, look, I think that the first months of this administration have been genuinely terrifying. You know, I think the denial of due process, the idea that you could just pick someone up and lock them in a dungeon in El Salvador for life and, and assert that that's totally fine and good and something you want to continue doing, I think that's terrifying. I think Elon coming in with the, you know, with the chainsaw and just getting rid of random agencies that he doesn't like without consulting Congress. You know, I think that also was a. I mean, it was dramatically unconstitutional. I think that was also very terrifying. Also, just the fact of the richest man on earth with all of these conflicts of interest across all these agencies being handed all of this unilateral power, I think that was deeply disturbing. I think using the justification of a national emergency to completely upend the global economic order, I think that is very frightening. But I feel that a lot of this at this point has been sort of like, tried at its most maximalist and is being pulled back now.
- [25:30]
Unknown
I was about to say all three of those things you said, though, I think ended up being pretty unpopular. Like, if you poll, if you poll the deep rotation stuff, it's unpopular. Elon's now you don't even seem anymore. And they're not gonna. And they're not rolling him anywhere. The tariffs may be the most unpopular thing that he did. I do have some feeling that those things which I agree were. You hit the exact three things I thought were most scary all got pushed back. That's something to be confident about, right?
- [26:03]
Crystal Ball
That's. That's right. And I do think so with the tariffs. You know, I think that the, the bond market in particular freaked Trump out and he really has walked back now. That doesn't mean, look, we still have 30% tariffs on China. That's a lot. Think of how much 5% inflation hurt people. And you're talking about 30% on China, 10% on everything else. They're talking about imposing even greater percentages again, like there is going to be economic fallout and it will hit working class people the hardest. This will amount to a soon.
- [26:35]
Unknown
Do you think it will be soon, like in the next little bit?
- [26:39]
Crystal Ball
Yes, absolutely. There's no doubt that there will be some economic fallout. How great? I don't think anyone can really say so. I don't want to downplay it, but I do agree that on. In those three areas, he has Been sort of chastened, you know, the tariffs, we're not going back to 145% tariffs on China. That's not happening. Whatever his, whatever his plan was there, I personally think the plan with tariffs is just, he likes power. This makes him, every company have to come to him, every country have to come to him and he loves that. I think that's really what the tariffs are all about. But, you know, we're not going back to the most maximalist position there. I don't think on the deportations, they're going to try more things. And, you know, I think we have to be leery. You've got them out there say, hey, we might just suspend habeas corpus. But you do have at least the courts kind of checking them. The, the overall immigration policy is now way more unpopular. And, you know, so I think that the most maximalist aims there have also been maybe somewhat checked. And so, and Elon has, you know, basically done, he came out today. I don't know, political giving.
- [27:48]
Unknown
Yeah.
- [27:50]
Crystal Ball
Not Trump, right?
- [27:51]
Unknown
Yeah. I mean, he, I don't know anyone that doesn't think he's a complete weirdo now. Like, he, you talk about a dude who just set his personal image on fire, right?
- [28:03]
Crystal Ball
Yeah. Oh, yeah, absolutely.
- [28:05]
Unknown
Do you think he realizes that was a mistake?
- [28:08]
Crystal Ball
He set his political power on fire too when he, you know, when he threw all in on this Wisconsin Supreme Court race and he, he lost. And Doge is a, Doge is a laughingstock now. And here's again where you have to hold 2 thoughts in your mind. Does not save anyone any money. Actually, I think it's going to cost money because when you're talking about gutting the irs, that means, guess what, they're not going to be able to go after rich tax cheats. Like it's, it's seems to be a factor potentially. I don't know, you tell me if you followed this like Doge cuts hit the, you know, the weather service office that is was monitoring the tornado.
- [28:42]
Unknown
I mean, Bashir says that that was not anything about a factor that night. But in general, people like the weather service and they don't want to see it hit.
- [28:51]
Crystal Ball
Yes, exactly. They want to be getting warnings when it's appropriate to get warnings. They want to be able to fly and know that their plane is going to land and not crash into another plane. And so you have Doge, which has failed in terms of the metrics they set out of this dramatic cost cutting and efficiency effort. The government is less efficient now. Just try to get some question handled on your Social Security chat. Good luck. And they didn't save any money, but it did do a lot of damage. You know, there's genuine harm there to things that people rely on that they don't even think about.
- [29:24]
Unknown
See, I think that's key. I think that's key because I think what happened with the things that were unpopular is that it is easy. The Republicans, I think, had the same problem we sometimes do with the Democrats of being out of touch. So on paper you say, okay, this looks like waste. But then when in West Virginia all the coal mine health services close, that then has effect in West Virginia. And all of a sudden these senators and governor from West Virginia are like, wait a minute now these are all coal miners. Same thing. When they cut Medicaid, the first hospitals that will go, the first ones are the ones in rural red states. They'll be the first ones to go. And the people in those towns, they know that. One of the reasons I think Josh Hawley is like, we cannot cut Medicaid. He's got a lot of small towns in Missouri that the hospitals will go away. So I think it's easy for the Elon Musk of the world to just go, oh, we'll just do this. It's waste. But then when it actually the ramifications happen, Crystal, then they have to pull back because like, then their actual constituents are like, wait a minute.
- [30:28]
Crystal Ball
That's right. That's right. No, they won't. They're cutting liheap, which is the heating assistance low income heating assistance program, which, you know, affects a lot of like rural communities. In Maine, for example, the coal miner health thing, I covered that closely. It's horrific. I mean, miners, yeah, I'm sure you probably know these statistics. They're getting contracting virulent black lung at younger and younger ages. And so, you know, the few things that have been put in place to, to track and to monitor and to that allow you to switch to a. That doesn't isn't, you know, is dust free. Those things have all been slashed. I mean, this has been, this is a disaster for coal miners and for those communities. The, you know, the weather service, important, FAA important, cancer research important in terms of disaster funds. West Virginia was denied some of the relief funds that they needed after those horrific floods that hit Kentucky and West Virginia in some of the poorest parts of the state and a state that, you know, already has been screwed into suffering so much. Washington, same thing, denied disaster relief funds. Arkansas was initially denied disaster relief funds, but since Their governor is Sarah Huckabee Sanders. She was able to go and petition the king and make her case and get her funds released. But, you know, these are things that have real consequences. Everyone feels. No one will deny that there is a waste that you could cut in the federal government. But let me tell you something, Matt. If you have no interest in looking for that waste in the Pentagon, you aren't serious. If you have no interest in looking for that waste with some of these Medicare fraudsters who happen to be also well connected, one of them is Republican Senator Rick Scott, then you have no interest in actually cutting waste. So this was never truly about cost cutting, in my opinion. Again, it was about power. I think it was an ideological project, because Elon Musk is an ideological radical who just does not think there should be government and certainly doesn't want that government checking in on his businesses to see whether or not they're complying with the law. So that's what this thing was really about. On that metric, perhaps it was a success. But in terms of delivering efficiency or cost cutting in any sort of reasonable way for American people, it's a failure. And the fact that you could turn anyone if you just say, oh, should the government be more efficient? Everyone would say, yes. The fact that you could turn that project into something that is dramatically unpopular is actually pretty incredible.
- [32:59]
Unknown
Do you think Andy Beshear here in Kentucky, do you think he could be president? Like, if you had asked me that two years ago, I would have thought that was the most ludicrous thing I'd ever heard. I used to say he's vanilla ice cream, but without sprinkles. And now maybe like. But now all of a sudden. First of all, I think he's gotten better at the PR part of this.
- [33:19]
Crystal Ball
I've noticed that.
- [33:20]
Unknown
I thought he was always good at the, like, governing part, but I think he's gotten better at the PR part. But then also the world. There's a part of the world that's kind of yearning for that. Okay, can we get to a time where we don't hate each other a little bit? You know, I will tell you, you look at the map of Kentucky and the governor's race in 2023, every place that got hit by a disaster where Bashir worked with them on the ground, and he won all of those counties, These are rural Trump counties, and he won them because they had had a reason to really deal with him. I'm still skeptical. You're national feels like Bashir's in more and more Places. Could he be president? Could he be the nominee?
- [34:03]
Crystal Ball
I think it's possible. I still hold on to a little bit of that skepticism.
- [34:08]
Unknown
You knew him when he lived here, when you lived here.
- [34:10]
Crystal Ball
Yeah. And I like him. I really admire what he's done in the state. I think it's remarkable. Here he is governor of Kentucky, a state that has trended dramatically to the right, and he's the most popular Democratic.
- [34:22]
Unknown
Governor in the country, second most popular governor, period.
- [34:25]
Crystal Ball
Period.
- [34:26]
Unknown
In America.
- [34:27]
Crystal Ball
You can't look at that and say, oh, this guy doesn't have a chance whatsoever. Obviously, he's doing some things. He's doing some things right now. If we go back to. And let me make the bull case for him and then I'll tell you my skepticism, which is a little bit similar to yours. But the bull case forum is he really is kind of the polar opposite of Trump. It comes off as this kind of humble guy. He's not super flashy. Here he is doing the work in a difficult place that's had his share of ups and downs, et cetera, and really has tried to be in touch with the people here and still for his values, too, in ways that could have been politically difficult for him here in the. So I think that's the bull case for him. The, the challenge for him is, you know, we're talking about this new media ecosystem and you got to be able to go on and you'll have a three hour conversation with some podcaster, et cetera. And I still feel like he has a lot of that caution in.
- [35:27]
Unknown
Yeah, for sure he does. I mean, he's cautious, Crystal, to come on our show. And like, I grabbed him at the.
- [35:33]
Crystal Ball
DNC and he was like, no, how could you?
- [35:35]
Unknown
I'm just gonna, who's gonna be more on your side than me? Like, I'm a Democrat in Kentucky. There are none of us. No one. Like, he is very. He'll do it. But like, they're very skeptical. And I'm like, man, if you can't handle me, then you're not going to be able to handle the national.
- [35:52]
Crystal Ball
I've tried to, I've tried to get him on our show, you know, he just won't do it. It's always a no. And, and like you said, like, you're not going to talk to us.
- [36:02]
Unknown
Yeah, I mean, we're on your side and you're not.
- [36:05]
Crystal Ball
Like, he know. Really knows you. He at least knows me a little bit, you know, and, but the difference.
- [36:10]
Unknown
Though is you and I are off the. What this is what worries me about him, he seems to be fine to go on the mainstream Democrat tour, but he seems scared to go on the off the beaten path tour. And if you can't do that with the more left, what are you going to do with the right? I mean, can you imagine a world he set with, with Dave Portnoy? I mean, it seems insane to think that.
- [36:35]
Crystal Ball
Yeah.
- [36:35]
Unknown
So that's what makes me skeptical.
- [36:37]
Crystal Ball
I think Andy, to me, he seems like he's, he's a preparer, which I relate to on the same way, you know, he wants to know, okay, what are the questions going to be? How long is it going to go? What are the answers that I have planned out? And if it's outside of that, then it really feels like it's outside of his comfort zone. And so I think, I think he has gotten better. I noticed that too. And you know, when he was doing his kind of like VP audition tour, I was like, oh, okay, he's got better. Yeah, definitely. But I think if he's going to make that step to the top level, he needs to get out there and do some reps in a longer form and get comfortable in that space as well. Because I just, I think it's essential at this point. I just don't think that you will have a successful candidate again who can't.
- [37:20]
Unknown
I agree with that.
- [37:21]
Crystal Ball
Go on and feel comfortable in like a conversational one hour, two hour, whatever kind of a, you know, new media setting.
- [37:29]
Unknown
He's at his best when people are hurting. Like he really is. Like, he, he, he gives off a sense of empathy that I think is very rare in politicians. I think politicians really, I think I've always thought Obama was very good at that. Obama could go to a scene of a, of a, of a tragedy and really make people feel a certain way. And I think Andy is, is like that too. I give him a lot of credit for that. I mean, I think George W. Bush was actually pretty good at that. In various things, he made people feel that. I do think there's value.
- [37:59]
Crystal Ball
And you think that's the reason for his popularity in Kentucky?
- [38:04]
Unknown
Well, I mean, remember he got elected governor, and then two and a half months later, Covid hits, right? And he was on TV every day. And I think one of the things the COVID debates have become so much about, well, were the lockdowns too long, et cetera, all this stuff. What people forget is there were a group of old people that thought they were going to die, right? There were a group of old people that. And Andy Beshear in Kentucky, I don't know about, in other states, he made those people feel comfort. They would watch him every day at 5:00.
- [38:36]
Crystal Ball
Wow.
- [38:37]
Unknown
And they, and my mom, when he ran for reelection, said, he will do better with old people than you think, because there are old people sitting in nursing homes, et cetera, that feel like he tried to keep them alive.
- [38:47]
Crystal Ball
Wow.
- [38:48]
Unknown
And I genuinely think that was true. I think we. In the COVID debate, Crystal, I think we get lost in the vaccine. Was it. Should you have to take it? Did we lock down too long and forget that for people 75 or 70 and older, they thought they were going to die. Right. And he was one of those people who people felt like was trying to keep them alive.
- [39:10]
Crystal Ball
Interesting. Yeah, that's. That's very interesting because that cuts a lot against some of the national political narrative, which would say that, you know, that Democrats were. Are really being punished for the way they approached Covid. And, you know, I know Andy came under fire for.
- [39:27]
Unknown
Well, there's an age group. There's an age group that's different. Okay. So for people 40 to 60, especially who work in business, it radicalized them to the right. Like, I was a business owner here and it sucked trying to own a restaurant during that time. But there's a group older than that that genuinely thought they were on the front lines of death. And they. I think they value things like civility and some of that. And Andy represents it. Now, I'm skeptical whether that's translatable past Kentucky because people in these other states didn't seem during that time. You know what I mean? So I don't know if that will translate well.
- [40:04]
Crystal Ball
Interesting. That's really interesting because. Yeah, I mean, being, you know, on the outside now, looking in, I just thought, okay, well, he's brought a good amount of, like, jobs to the state. And I did think that those Covid press conferences were probably important just for making people feel like this is someone who, like they feel a direct connection to, they know, like a politician.
- [40:26]
Unknown
Yeah, it's hard.
- [40:26]
Crystal Ball
And Kentucky is. Kentucky is a unique state, too. I mean, it feels very like. It feels small. Like, it feels like you have a connection to all these people around you. So it's not hard to imagine people feeling like this direct connect to Andy. And of course, the Bashir family is well known and all those sorts of things to me, probably play in. Right.
- [40:44]
Unknown
Yeah, I think you're right. I think he. If he had just a little more spice to him, I think he could win. He just Needs to maybe get. I sit there and try to think about. Okay, let's say he were to go on the Breakfast Club with Charlemagne. I can't see it. I mean, I can't see it. I don't know how he would do it. How do you do it?
- [41:06]
Crystal Ball
He's got to lean into, though.
- [41:09]
Unknown
Yeah. Being a door. Yeah. Just lean into being a dork. I'm the dorkiest dork that ever dorked. Maybe he should do that.
- [41:15]
Crystal Ball
Kind of like awkward, normal. Like, that's very relatable. The guy who just won for prime minister in, in Canada, who's this like, super Carney Democrat. Yeah, Carney. Mark Carney. He was a central banker. Like, that's who he is. And one of the things that I've interviewed some Canadian, you know, journalists about that election and that was what they said about him is he didn't to like, you know how sometimes politicians, like, they'll put on like the checkered shirt and they'll go with their pickup track.
- [41:44]
Unknown
J.D. vance to me is the cringiest. Like, J.D. vance, like, tries to act like he's cool. Like, dude, that J.D. vance a whole nother thing. Because I knew him, like, he and I were friendly for a long time.
- [41:57]
Crystal Ball
Oh, really? I didn't realize that actually.
- [41:59]
Unknown
Well, when he wrote Hillbilly Elegy, I liked it, sort of. But then I also had critiques as a real Eastern Kentuckian. I felt like he was kind of being not a fake Eastern Kentuckian, but a part time Eastern Kentuckian. And I re. And I had some criticisms and he wrote me, I did not know who he was and said, I heard about your criticisms. Let's have a conversation. So we started what was basically a three or four year conversation where we could interact with each other on a very positive level. And I thought he took stuff from me and vice versa. We met each other on a couple of occasions. I thought he was awkward and weird, but I thought his heart was in the right place about Eastern Kentucky at the time. And I respected him. And he got involved in this App Harvest thing, which I'm kind of amazed Crystal didn't become a bigger scandal that he was involved because it's been a complete cluster and it never even came up on the presidential campaign. But I knew him through some of that and I appreciate what he's doing. And then all of a sudden he just decided, I want to be president. I've got to be pro Trump. And he just changed his personality overnight. And I wrote him some messages in 2021, 2022, expressing disappointment at some of the changes. And he engaged with me for a while. And I'll keep those conversations private because I think that's important when you have private conversations. But it ruined our relationship. And I have been extremely disappointed, not just in his actions, but in the change in who he's become, because I don't think that's who he was six years ago.
- [43:38]
Crystal Ball
It's a cautionary tale. It's a cautionary tale because people. He's not the only one who, you know, loses who they are in pursuit of power. You know, well, he's vice president, so.
- [43:47]
Unknown
Maybe they would say, like, I was right, you know, I mean, I don't know.
- [43:51]
Crystal Ball
But at what cost?
- [43:53]
Unknown
I don't know. I feel like he. I had really high hopes for him. And then when I was thinking about running for Senate, my interactions with him, I would take up for him sometimes on the radio, in the talk of Democratic circles. People were very adamantly negative to me about that because some people think hillbilly elegy is the worst thing in the world. And I've just been disappointed. He is not the person he was eight or nine years ago, and I hate that.
- [44:21]
Crystal Ball
So did he try to justify to you the turn of something other than just, well, this is what I got to do, or was it more just like, well, this is how the Republican Party is.
- [44:31]
Unknown
So he never. To be fair to him, he never just said, I'm just doing this. He would make the intellectual arguments. And then, you know, I will never do it. Because, like I said, I think when you have private conversations or private conversations, but if you were to go back and read our text and Twitter exchanges for years, you could watch the change in his personality play out in real time. I've done that. I went back and looked, and it's just all of a sudden it was like you were talking to a different person. And the la. And we kept having. The last time I spoke to him was when I congratulated on being picked for VP and he sent like a word answer, and that's the last time we've talked. But, you know, it is weird, though, because both if it was Bashir Vance.
- [45:19]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, that'd be interesting.
- [45:20]
Unknown
That's so weird because I know both of them and it would be so, so strange in a presidential race for that to be the case.
- [45:26]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, that would be. That would be interesting. Like, just the dynamics of. That would be.
- [45:29]
Unknown
Who's a real Kentuckian?
- [45:31]
Crystal Ball
Would be the fascinating.
- [45:32]
Unknown
Before we go, I want to Ask you about yourself, you ran or you began the process of running for office many years ago. What did that teach?
- [45:39]
Crystal Ball
I did.
- [45:40]
Unknown
What did that teach you?
- [45:41]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, I did run. What did it teach me? So this was 2010. It taught me, don't run as a Democrat in a massive Republican wave year.
- [45:50]
Unknown
Okay, yeah, that was a bad year for Democrats.
- [45:53]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, I mean I.
- [45:55]
Unknown
How old were you when you did that?
- [45:56]
Crystal Ball
You were young when I started. I was 27. I think I was 28 when I was younger.
- [46:01]
Unknown
And you ran for Congress at 27, right?
- [46:04]
Crystal Ball
I was pretty young, yeah. And what did it teach me? Most of the lessons it taught me were unfortunately kind of negative because I came in so naive, Matt, so idealistic. I had no idea what I was getting myself into. And it's a good thing I did because if I had known, I would never have done it. You were much, you know, smarter and much more like you were much savvier when you were considering a run. And yeah, I really thought like, oh sure, this is a pretty Republican district, but if I go in and talk to people and I've got a good agenda, whatever, and it just doesn't work that way. It's like, okay, what year is it? What is the partisan lean of your district? There's a lot of locked in partisanship that's just impossible to overcome. There's the probably the deepest lesson it taught me though, because I do think what we've experienced over the past number of years is there actually are more voters who are swing voters who are willing to move than and change, you know, ideological affiliation than I think we had been led to believe. But I'd say the deepest lesson it really taught me is just how frickin central the money is. The money is so central and it really, in my opinion, if you had to point at one root of all evil in our political system, it really is the corruption of the money that.
- [47:16]
Unknown
We Citizens United ruined American politics.
- [47:19]
Crystal Ball
I think that's a big part. There were some other decisions along the way, but it really is one of them. And Elon is the logical endpoint of that. You know, here's a guy who spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars to elect Donald Trump and as a reward he gets, he gets to cut USAID and Ty gets to gut the consumer financial like the anti scam agency, he gets to make sure that none of his companies are going to be regulated. Like he just gets to come in and run wild and have the President doing a Tesla ad on the White House lawn et CETERA and that's the most extreme version we've ever seen. Like, there is no other comparison to that in American history. You have to go back to, like, JP Morgan bailing out the government.
- [48:04]
Unknown
Yeah.
- [48:05]
Crystal Ball
You do have anything that's even remotely comparable. Right. But it is the logical endpoint of the Wild, Wild West. Money is speech, campaign, you know, open season, no campaign finance limits, whatever the system that we have at this point, I think Elon is the logical endpoint. And listen, if you love. If you're someone out there who likes Elon and, like, you're into him and you're into Doge, and that's. That's, you know, that's your thing just. Then imagine it's George Soros. Imagine it's Bill Gates. Imagine it's some other billionaire. Because it really is not so much about the individual person. It's about some of the richest people on the planet being able to use our country as their plaything. And that. That understanding, when you run for office and you spend so much of your time just, like, calling rich people and begging them to give you a little bit of cash, that really becomes very visceral for you.
- [48:56]
Unknown
When you ran, you had to take a lot of criticism over stupid stuff. And when I was thinking about it, I got the, you know, you get a company to research your background and learn everything about you, and I had to pay to learn all the stuff that I'd forgotten. And most of mine was like, you know, most of mine was, like, things I'd written many years ago or set on a podcast in 2007 and all that. And when you've talked as much as I have, there's a lot of that stuff out there.
- [49:23]
Crystal Ball
I relate to that. Yeah.
- [49:24]
Unknown
And I remember at the time thinking, man, I. You know, I don't. Nothing was, like, terrible, but some of it might be a little embarrassing. And so do I want to do. I want to want to do that. I kind of wonder, though, now, even just six years later, if none of that stuff matters anymore. That, like, we've gotten to a point where we're going, we're getting generations that have grown up online. Everyone under 30 has something terribly embarrassing about them online, probably. And that all of those things that, you know, you had to deal with and that if I had run, maybe I would have had to deal with are just, like, not an issue anymore, that Trump has made it almost to where none of that stuff matters anymore. What do you think?
- [50:12]
Crystal Ball
I think that's right. I mean, if you go back and look at My campaign, quote, unquote scandal. Somebody released photos.
- [50:18]
Unknown
It was so ridiculous.
- [50:19]
Crystal Ball
In hindsight, it's embarrassingly tame. Like, it's actually embarrassing to talk about because it was such a big deal at the time. And it was hard. It was horrible for me. I went through it. When this came out, it was some photos of me goofing off at a party.
- [50:34]
Unknown
Like, literally, there are women every day that put that up. Every day voluntarily. And you had to deal with the press attacking you before I even knew you. I remember it happening. And the pictures now would seem so silly.
- [50:50]
Crystal Ball
No, I know one would. It's so hilarious. Like, oh, my God, a young woman having fun at a party, God forbid. But I mean, I think also my name is being so weird. Whatever it was, the whole thing now there is no way anyone would care at all. At all. Today I saw a congresswoman, Nancy Mace, who's out of her mind. She posted, like, today I will show my naked body. Like.
- [51:13]
Unknown
Like what she said, I'm going to show my naked body at a congressional hearing. That I don't know if she did or not, but, like, she said she was going to. And it's crazy. And it was like the number seven trend. Crystal. It wasn't even number one. It was number seven, was a congresswoman was like, yeah, I'm going to be naked at the hearing later today.
- [51:33]
Crystal Ball
Yeah. And I was like, all right, I guess so. You know, I mean, that lady's so messy that it is just. Just unreal. But, yeah, for her, they're just like, yeah, that's just Nancy Mace. What are you gonna do? Lauren Boebert, the whole Beetlejuice thing. I mean, you just. You could go on and on.
- [51:46]
Unknown
Think about Lauren Boebert. That was a woman that, I mean, let's be real, got, you know, gave a thing at a thing. Right. And like, the idea that you could survive giving a thing at a thing, crystalizing.
- [52:01]
Crystal Ball
She got reelected.
- [52:02]
Unknown
She got reelected. Yeah.
- [52:04]
Crystal Ball
So I don't know what you said in the past, Matt, Billy's cracking up about giving whatever, but I think you're good.
- [52:10]
Unknown
Well, I just did We. You know, I was like a young guy in the bl. In the world back then. The blog sphere especially was very misogynistic. It was very like, look at these hot women over here. And of course, I think it's almost now gone back in that direction. But in a Democratic primary, my worry was not the general election. If I did it, my worry was Democrat, a Democratic primary. Were there were. Because if you. I cringe When I look at how I was when I was doing that, I was 27, 26, and I spoke in a way that I would never speak now, but so I was cringe. Although you're right. Now, a lot of people would just embrace it and be like, I'm a bro, and I can't do that. But I don't even know if any of it would even matter now. It would probably only hurt you in a Democratic Party primary.
- [53:00]
Crystal Ball
Even in the Democratic primary at this point, because they're so desperate to appeal to the bros, they'd be like, oh, maybe this guy is on this.
- [53:07]
Unknown
Well, yeah, Cuomo's coming back. I mean, Cuomo's coming back. Like, I mean, that's crazy.
- [53:12]
Crystal Ball
And that's it. Yeah, don't. Don't worry about it.
- [53:14]
Unknown
Can we get Al Franken back? Is there any way that, you know.
- [53:18]
Crystal Ball
That'S been talked about? Because I think there's a Minnesota Senate seat that's opening up, and people floated him because he was a good senator. You know, we lost it.
- [53:26]
Unknown
And he's funny. He understands regular culture. I mean, even if it was like, so he actually. Honestly, it's kind of a shame we lost him, you know?
- [53:34]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, you never know. Now's his time. He could definitely make a comeback if he wanted to. I don't think anyone would care at this point.
- [53:40]
Unknown
The show is called Breaking Points. Crystal, you come at issues and often reach an opinion that a lot of people agree with but come at it a different way, which is what I've always appreciated about you, is what led us to argue at the various Thai restaurants on Frankfort Avenue. But it is also what makes you extremely interesting. Thank you very much for taking the time. It's great to see you.
- [54:03]
Crystal Ball
Oh, it was fun. It was great to see you, too, Matt. Made me miss. Made me miss you. Made me miss Kentucky and Louisville. I know it's hard to get. It's kind of hard to get to, like.
- [54:12]
Unknown
What do you mean, it's hard to get to. It's a plane. D.C. to Louisville. It's not that hard of a flight.
- [54:17]
Crystal Ball
I had three kids. You know, the radar's going out. Like, what am I supposed to do?
- [54:22]
Unknown
Well, that's a good point. We'll see you. Thanks to Crystal Ball for joining us. Hope you enjoyed episode two of the Matt Jones Show. If you haven't yet, go on your podcast platforms, your I heart, your apple, your sp. Subscribe to the Matt Jones show so that you won't miss an episode. Have a great Memorial Day. We'll see you next week. Okay. Have you heard about this? Last year, Degree changed the formula for their Cool Rush deodorant. Their fans rebelled and wanted the old scent back and Degree listened. That doesn't happen often. They admitted that they effed up and are bringing the original Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. There's a reason it's the number one men's antiperspirant and it's back in Walmart, Target and other stores for under $4. So try it and see what the fuss is about. Head to your local stores to try the OG Cool Rush for yourself.
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Matt Jones
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