The McShay Show — 10 Truths from Week 4 of College Football & The 2026 NFL Draft’s Mendoza Line
Episode Overview
Date: September 22, 2025
Hosts: Todd McShay ("A"), Mitch ("B")
Podcast: The McShay Show, The Ringer
Theme:
Todd and Mitch deliver their "10 Truths" after a wild Week 4 in college football — their most confidently held takeaways about teams, players, and coaching trends. They then introduce a new recurring segment: The Mendoza Line, using Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza as a dividing line for the 2026 NFL Draft’s quarterback class — who’s above, who’s below, and what it means for team needs and NFL evaluation.
1. Main Themes & Purpose
- 10 Truths: The hosts each reveal five firmly held beliefs about teams, players, or units after a full month-plus of college football, using tape study, stats, and practical scouting experience.
- 2026 NFL Draft QB Mendoza Line: A look at where Fernando Mendoza stacks up among draft-eligible QBs for 2026 and what the line means for a “draftable” grade.
2. Key Discussion Points & Insights
A. Expanded College Football Playoff Race & Conference Power Structure
The Case for Three ACC Teams (05:17–10:35)
- Mitch: Boldly proclaims three ACC teams are playoff-bound, excluding Clemson, with Miami, Florida State, and Georgia Tech all having favorable paths.
- Quote: "Three ACC teams are going to the playoff, I think. And by the way, none of those three are Clemson. Unthinkable to begin the year." — B [05:17]
- Both discuss scenarios: Can Notre Dame get back in? How do Big Ten and SEC cannibalization factor?
- Todd pushes back: The SEC is too deep and dominant for the selection committee to let three ACC teams in.
- They dissect the comparative “tiers” of the Big Ten and SEC versus the ACC’s top and mid-tier teams.
The SEC’s Resurgence (10:36–16:49)
- Todd: "The SEC has reestablished its dominance in college football this year." — A [10:36]
- Runs down deep, competitive top and second-tier SEC teams, contrasting with depth drop-offs in other leagues.
- Names teams from Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Auburn, and others as legit threats.
Committee Logic & Playoff Expectation
- Agreement: Committee mistakes do happen and sometimes “the best” teams get left out due to system flaws.
- Quote: "If we don't have eight teams between the Big Ten and the SEC in that college football playoff, something went really wrong." — A [17:20]
B. Notable Team & Player Reactions from Week 4
LSU’s Make-or-Break Test (18:04–20:16)
- Mitch: LSU dropped in the polls — ultimately a good thing; the coming game at Ole Miss will reveal if they’re elite or a “paper tiger.”
- Praises DC Blake Baker’s transformation of the defense but highlights the ongoing issue with containing mobile quarterbacks.
Miami’s Defensive Transformation (20:16–25:09)
- Todd: Miami’s DC Corey Heatherman is a “perfect fit,” blending discipline with unleashing athleticism.
- Quote: “When the play is whistled dead, good luck finding me one where there’s not at least six Canes around that football.” — A [22:18]
- Spotlight on Reuben Bain Jr., Torre, Mesidor, and others for being “violent, relentless.”
Indiana’s Rapid Rise (25:21–30:57)
- Both: Indiana much improved from last year — offense is balanced (RB depth: Ellison, Lawton, Black, Hemby), Mendoza is a “perfect fit” at QB, and defense led by Mikel Camara and more.
- Can they manage the new expectations, especially with tough road games ahead?
- Todd: “Indiana is legit.” [29:16]
Texas Tech Earns “For Real” Status (31:06–36:16)
- Todd: This Texas Tech is a different, well-balanced team, with defense leading and backup QB Will Hammond possibly ousting the starter.
- Love for tight end Terence Carter and WR Jacoby Williams.
- Quote: “This Texas Tech team is for real. The two epiphanies I had this weekend: Indiana and Texas Tech are legitimate top 10, top 12 teams in the country.” — A [33:18]
- QB controversy: “I don’t want to be in Joey McGuire’s shoes… Hammond is better than Morton, period.” — A [36:16]
Oklahoma’s Defense Steps Up (37:05–38:46)
- Mitch: Oklahoma can run the brutal SEC gauntlet only if their defense continues excelling. Praises Venables and front seven depth.
- Stat: Tied for FBS lead with 16 sacks, but no turnovers yet — “that’s going to change.”
- Quote: “I think that Oklahoma defense is going to keep them in the title hunt as much as Matier does.” — B [38:38]
Michigan’s Defensive Front is Playoff-Caliber (42:27–46:02)
- Todd: Michigan “not there yet” on offense, but their veteran defensive front (Moore, Barham, Benny, Houseman, Guy) can “carry them to a one-loss record going into Ohio State.”
- Quote: “This Michigan defensive front is different... more senior defensive front guys with high grades than any other program in the country.” — A [42:27]
Arch Manning’s Up and Down Sam Houston State Game (46:03–50:16)
- Both critique and contextualize Manning’s viral on-field attitude; Todd: “It was good to see. … I don’t know a great quarterback out there who isn’t a little bit of a prick.”
- Note: Arch’s ball placement and mechanics still need work, but game reps show progress.
USC’s Jaden Mayava Flies Under the Radar (50:31–54:01)
- Todd: “Jaden Mayava at USC is the best quarterback in the country that nobody’s talking about.” [50:31]
- Throws for high completion and explosiveness, playing within Lincoln Riley’s play-action and power-run game.
- Emphasis on USC’s improved run-game balance and defense.
- Quote: “His game is play action and striking, and he has done that at an unbelievably high level so far.” — A [51:07]
C. The 2026 NFL Draft "Mendoza Line": Quarterback Class Reality Check
Setting the Line (54:04–58:02)
- Poll of 25 NFL execs (per Pete Thamel):
- Most have South Carolina’s Lenoris Sellers (8 votes) and LSU’s Nussmeier (7) as QB1-2, with Matier, Beck, Mendoza, Levitt, Arch Manning receiving votes beyond.
- McShay’s own ranking (58:00):
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)
- Lenoris Sellers (South Carolina)
- John Mater (Oklahoma)
- Carson Beck (Georgia)
- Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) — "The Mendoza line"
- Below: Taylen Green (Arkansas), Dante Moore (Oregon), Cade Klubnik, Sam Levitt, Drew Allar (Penn State)
- Quote: "If the Mendoza line for me is at 5, I got him ahead of a bunch… Mendoza could very easily become 3… depending on how he plays." — A [59:48]
- Mitch’s ranking:
- Sellers at number one “not even close,” followed by Mater, Dante Moore, Nussmeier, Beck, then Aller and Mendoza.
- On Mendoza: Great in that system and on RPOs, but, “When you get him off his first read and keep him in the pocket, it starts to be a problem.” — B [69:47]
- Concerns for other supposed top QBs:
- Cade Klubnik: "Below the Mendoza line… we've seen some more blemishes than I expected to see." — A [63:01]
- Drew Allar: "For a guy who's got that much arm strength, he's a shitty deep ball thrower. And I don't get it." — B [68:42]
- Dante Moore: Not ready in 2026, but talent is clear and upside if he waits.
- Both agree: Sellers is the only elite physical/processing combo, but both want him back in school in 2026 for at least 40 starts.
3. Timestamps for Important Segments
| Segment | Start Time | |---------------------------------------------|-------------| | Show open/10 Truths overview | 00:00 | | Three ACC teams playoff scenario | 05:17 | | SEC’s dominance, Big Ten vs. SEC debate | 10:36 | | LSU’s pivotal week, defensive leap | 18:04 | | Miami’s defense/Heatherman love | 20:16 | | Indiana’s full team leap | 25:21 | | Texas Tech is “for real” — QB debate | 31:06 | | Oklahoma’s defense & schedule | 37:05 | | Michigan’s defensive front praise | 42:27 | | Arch Manning’s performance | 46:03 | | USC/Mayava, Lincoln Riley system | 50:31 | | Mendoza Line: Defining the QB class | 54:04 | | McShay’s QB draftable “cut line” | 58:00 | | Mitch’s Mendoza line take | 66:47 | | Upcoming week, giant CFB slate prep | 71:02 | | Quick AP poll reaction | 72:42 |
4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
"Three ACC teams are going to the playoff, I think. And by the way, none of those three are Clemson. Unthinkable to begin the year." — Mitch [05:17]
"This SEC has reestablished its dominance in college football this year." — Todd [10:36]
"If we don't have eight teams between the Big Ten and the SEC in that college football playoff, something went really wrong." — Todd [17:20]
"When the play is whistled dead, good luck finding me one where there’s not at least six Canes around that football." — Todd [22:18]
"This Texas Tech team is for real. ... Indiana and Texas Tech are legitimate top 10, top 12 teams in the country." — Todd [33:18]
"Jaden Mayava at USC is the best quarterback in the country that nobody’s talking about." — Todd [50:31]
"If the Mendoza line for me is at 5, I got him ahead of a bunch…Mendoza could very easily become 3…depending on how he plays." — Todd [59:48]
"For a guy who's got that much arm strength, he's a shitty deep ball thrower. And I don't get it." — Mitch, on Drew Allar [68:42]
"Sellers could be the first overall pick if he comes out. I still hope he stays..." — Mitch [70:47]
5. Overall Takeaways
- The playoff race is more open — but the SEC’s depth is unmatched and will drive most of the bracket.
- Miami, Texas Tech, Indiana, and Oklahoma have become teams to watch, largely because of defense or unexpected offensive balance.
- The 2026 NFL Draft QB class is fluid — Sellers is the top prospect, but needs more seasoning, while Mendoza is the defining “draftable” line, with Klubnik, Allar, and others falling below expectations.
- The path to the playoff and NFL draft boards will hinge on performances in huge, high-leverage games coming in Week 5.
End of summary