The McShay Show | A CFP Title Game Preview With Todd Blackledge and Chris “The Bear” Fallica

Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Todd McShay & crew (Steve, Mench)
Guests: Todd Blackledge, Chris “The Bear” Fallica
Main Topic: In-depth preview of the College Football Playoff national championship game: Indiana vs. Miami

Episode Overview

This episode of The McShay Show delivers a comprehensive preview of the upcoming College Football Playoff national championship between Indiana and Miami. Host Todd McShay and his co-hosts are joined by two of the sport’s most respected voices—game analyst Todd Blackledge and gambling expert Chris “The Bear” Fallica. The crew breaks down the key matchups, coaching strategies, storylines, and betting angles for the title game, painting a vivid picture of why Indiana and Miami are such compelling finalists.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Stage: Why This Title Game Is Special

• Indiana’s remarkable rise under head coach Curt Cignetti and the culture shift from his JMU imports was highlighted.
• Miami, returning to national relevance after a long journey back, features a revitalized program under Mario Cristobal.
• Both programs are lauded for their defensive prowess and physical style of play—a rare, classic championship matchup.

X’s & O’s: Tactical Matchups That Will Decide the Game

1. Miami Offense vs. Indiana Defense

• Key players: Miami OC Shannon Dawson, QB Carson Beck vs. Indiana DC Brian Haynes
• Indiana’s defense “moves as one organism”—rarely out of position, excellent at limiting YAC, and highly disciplined.
• Miami’s offense thrives with Carson Beck’s patience and decision-making but must resist the urge for risky big plays:

  “Can Carson Beck stay patient when they take away the big play...and not revert to some of his bad habits?” – Mench (04:46)

• Indiana’s ability to disguise pressure and play sound zone coverage is a huge challenge for Miami.

2. Indiana Offense vs. Miami Defense

• Miami’s defensive line is more talented and physically imposing than most, featuring stars like Bain and Messador.
• Indiana's offensive line is coached by the revered Bob Bostad, crucial to their efficiency:

  “My man knows how to coach offensive linemen... They take good players and coach them to a level few in college reach.” – Steve (11:22)

• The game could be won in the trenches, with Miami looking to stop Indiana’s Heisman-winning QB Mendoza and power running.

3. Strength-on-Strength: Defensive Showdown

• Both defenses are elite. The consensus: Indiana’s defense might even outshine Miami’s.

  “As good as Miami’s defense is...I just think Indiana is on a slightly higher level.” – Mench (13:41)

• Zone vs. man schemes, simulated pressures (especially by Indiana), and discipline will determine the pace and style.

Coaching & Culture: The “Secret Sauce” Behind Indiana’s Success

• Curt Cignetti’s impact goes beyond tactics; it’s a cultural overhaul
• Blackledge details how Cignetti brought staff and players who set high expectations and focused on small details:

  “They just don’t do things that so many teams do to get themselves beat. They do all the little things in situational football.” – Todd Blackledge (18:12)

• Fast, penalty-averse, turnover-conscious—Indiana doesn’t make mistakes.
• The continuity of Cignetti’s staff (same coordinators for 15 years across three programs) is a differentiator.

Quarterback Play: Mendoza (Indiana) vs. Beck (Miami)

• Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): Praised for intelligence, fast processing, preparation, and off-script playmaking.

  “He makes things look easy right now. But that’s attributed to his preparation, ability to process, knowing where he wants to go.” – Todd Blackledge (20:53)

• Carson Beck (Miami): Entering on a hot streak, experienced, increasingly trusted not to commit costly errors.

  “I’m seeing a different Beck than I saw at Georgia...more fun, more energy, playing a little more loose.” – Steve (37:28)

Keys to Victory & What to Watch For

• Win the trenches: Both teams must establish and defend the run to control tempo.
• Don’t beat yourself: Indiana’s discipline is legendary; Miami must avoid turnovers and penalties.
• Coaching chess match: Both sides will be adjusting and adding wrinkles. Miami DC Heatherman’s prior relationship with Cignetti is noteworthy.
• Skill matchups: Indiana’s DB Ponds vs. Miami’s Malachi Tony (superstar WR), and Miami’s ability to limit Mendoza’s comfort.
• Start of the game: Early momentum and response to adversity could dictate the play-calling and outcome.

  “I think the start of this game will give us a good indication of what we’re going to get.” – Mench (40:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[Indiana’s defense] is 11 players, but they move as one organism...It is fascinating to watch on tape.” – Mench (06:15)
• “They [Indiana] don’t have the five stars, the four stars...but you have to appreciate and applaud coaching.” – Todd Blackledge (31:10)
• “This is going to be a fascinating watch.” – Steve (13:18)
• “They have to be aggressive, but in being aggressive, can’t afford critical mistakes.” – Todd Blackledge (41:43)
• “Malachi Tony...might be the most popular athlete in South Florida, outside of Messi.” – Chris Felica (56:36)
• “If Miami wins, you’re probably going to see a couple of stories about the losses sportsbooks took on Miami futures.” – Chris Felica (70:15)

Betting Angles & Predictions

Spread & Prop Bets

• Opening spread moved from Miami +5.5 to +8.5—consensus among the crew is that this line undervalues Miami.

  “That spread’s way too big to me. I think it’s going to be a much closer game.” – Mench (59:12)

• Prop pick: Over 104.5 Miami rushing yards; especially relevant given Bear’s read on Miami’s game plan (60:12, 73:13).

“Bear’s” Betting Philosophy & History

• Loaded up on Miami futures at long odds.
• Suggests a possible parlay play: Miami +8.5 & over on rushing yards.
• Cautions not to get greedy; play props and spreads individually (74:04).

Game Prediction

• Blackledge: Indiana edges Miami in a close one—“I think it’s a magical season for them, and I think they’re going to find a way to get one more.” (40:25)
• Consensus: Game should be tight, decided in the trenches, with turnovers and discipline as wildcards.

Segment Timestamps

• 04:46 - Key tactical discussion: Miami offense vs. Indiana defense
• 11:22 - The Bob Bostad effect on Indiana’s offensive line
• 17:27 - Todd Blackledge joins; breaks down Indiana’s transformation under Cignetti
• 20:53 - Detailed analysis of Mendoza’s evolution and impact
• 26:42 - Trench warfare: Where the game will be won
• 29:03 - Indiana’s defensive plan for Malachi Tony
• 41:43 - The fine line Miami must walk: Aggression without mistakes
• 47:21 - Chris Felica (“The Bear”) joins for a gambling, Miami history, and fan perspective
• 52:32 - Bear & crew debate spread movement and reasons Miami is undervalued
• 60:12; 73:13 - Best bet/prop: Miami rushing total over (104.5-107.5 yds)
• 66:45 - Intersection of soccer & college football among the crew

Episode Highlights & Tone

• Plenty of good-natured ribbing, deep coaching admiration, and insights into both team cultures.
• The show balances technical schematic talk with fan and betting perspectives—fun, respectful, enthusiastic, and loaded with expertise.
• Blackledge is analytical and measured; Fallica is animated and betting-savvy; the hosts keep the energy lively and accessible.

Final Takeaways

• This game is a true clash of elite defenses, rugged offensive lines, and two very different program stories.
• Indiana’s discipline, staff continuity, and unique defensive style give them an edge.
• Miami’s talent, recent form, and motivational edge cannot be overlooked—especially given the betting market underrating them.
• The result could hinge on early momentum, turnovers, and which line asserts itself.
• Both guests and hosts are expecting a tightly contested, physical, classic title game—well worth tuning in for.

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