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Joel Klatt
Foreign.
Todd McShay
It's a two for one special today on the McShay Show. We start with all the NFL draft buzz, quarterbacks and otherwise. Then we shift our focus to the College Football playoff with our FanDuel picks of the week and special guest Joel Klatt to break down all four of the first round games. It's a Thursday, so I'm feeling a rough draft draft in the air and just 126 days until the NFL draft. Mitch, you good?
Mitch McDonough
I'm good, man.
Todd McShay
Roll that sweet beat, Tuck. We got a fun one and a full one today. Steve, buckle up. All right, can't wait. All right, we got draft buzz. We got Joel clapp, we got FanDuel picks of the week. You and I are going to have a little competition. We'll get into that later. And here we go. I know. But first I want to let everyone know the McShay report is out. If you don't subscribe. What are you doing? Google it. The McShay Report. Subscribe. The McShay show is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. Plus, don't miss out on holiday offers and surprises all month long. Download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com McShay to get started, must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. M. I see that. That little smirk of you.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah. What are you doing, though?
Todd McShay
What are you doing? It's draft season, too. If you weren't involved during this college football season, shame on you. But now it's draft season. Like, I can't help you. Yeah. And we got some exciting things to announce. We're. We're building here. We're growing. We're building and we're excited about it and we appreciate all your support on YouTube, on Spotify, on Apple, on anywhere else you get your podcast men. Tell the folks real quickly, how do you, how do you support this show? If you want to go find the.
Mitch McDonough
McShay show on YouTube, hit the the subscribe button. Make sure you set up the alerts. Please hit the like buttons if you're listening. No, no one seems to like to take the the time to hit the like button. It's pretty easy. You can find us on Apple. Wherever you find your podcast on Spotify, you're going to find the McShay show and again, consider subscribing to the McShay Report. I'm at you, Goodmensch. M U E N C h and he's shade 13 for all the social stuff.
Todd McShay
There you go. He's the best in the business for a reason, folks.
Mitch McDonough
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Todd McShay
Let's get into it. Draft buzz and this is going to be consistent. This is a rough. We're going to start, we're going to do the rough draft portion of today's show first and then we're going to get to the College Football Playoff because it's that time of year and I love that we're jam packed. The buzz just about.
Mitch McDonough
I love that I get to react to this by the way, that we, I, you. We do not get on the phone. We do not talk about, hey, I'm gonna say this today, man. This is what I heard. I love that I get to hear it with everyone else at the same time.
Todd McShay
Well, the first part is a little bit more interactive. Not to disappoint you. You're gonna have to pull your weight on this.
Mitch McDonough
We'll see. Okay.
Todd McShay
The second part, yes, you might do some reacting. The first part I want to get to, I kind of compile. The list is growing. We've seen it shrink with underclassmen in recent years. The January 14th date is on the calendar, the NFL calendar. Excuse me, for underclassmen who need to, who need to declare by that date, those are underclassmen that are still not playing in the are not still playing in the College Football Playoff. And then about a week later, right after the College Football Playoff, I think it's a few days until you have, if you've played in the national championship, you have a few days after to get with all your folks, make the decision and declare or not. Right at that point they, they go through the list. They, they iron it out. They make sure everything, everyone's on, on board and it's like a 72 hour period and then they get it out to all 32 NFL teams. That's when the list becomes official. We'll guide you through every step of the way. Okay. But what I'm noticing this year and I I'm not forecasting that it's going to be a bigger group of underclassmen than we've seen the last couple years with the nil in incentivizing players to come back to school the transfer portal giving opportunity to players who maybe didn't have their best years or things didn't work out or they're, they just don't feel like they're ready to go to leave for the NFL to maybe transfer to another school where they get a different, maybe better opportunity. But right now I'm seeing a list that keeps growing and I think we're headed toward I, I don't want to give an exact number but it used to be in the 90s and some years in the hundreds and recently it's been like the 50s and 60s. Right, right. And I think that's a good thing. I don't like history. I agree Y the younger players leaving for the NFL, the per percentages of success in the league dip and there's a lot of bad information too coming from a lot of bad agents. Not all agents are bad but there are a lot of bad agents that are not good at their job and give false, false information for their own sake. So with all that said I want to I, I, I've sent this list to Tucker to create a graphic. These are just the big name guys guys that you probably if you're a college football fan recognize at first jump and I if you're listen if you're driving in your car you're, you're listening and not watching wherever you're doing that a lister the offensive guys Jeremiah Lovett, running back also running back LJ Martin, Notre Dame, BYU respectively. The third running back that I included in there's Emmett Johnson, a guy who's getting a lot of traction NFL scouting circles coming out of Nebraska then at wide receiver four guys Jordan Tyson, Arizona State Antonio Williams, Clemson Jacoby Lane, USC Chris Brazil, the second CB2 from Tennessee, one of my kind of sneaky favorites. Then Caleb Lomu not fanu but Lomu who we talked about maybe would be better served with another year in college head coaches Whittingham is, is you know moving on and you wonder if you know with new program or just the the allure of not the deepest class of offensive tackles that he's he's going to throw his hat. Name in the hat or hat in the ring. I should say name in the hat. Guess you could do that too, picking out of a hat. Defensive side edges, two of them that are of note right now. Keldrick Falk from Auburn and TJ Parker, Clemson interior defensive lineman 2 as well. Peter woods from Clemson, Caleb Banks from Florida. Off the ball, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. From Texas. Then you got six defensive backs, three cornerbacks. Jermad McCoy who didn't play this year with the ACL injury from Tennessee or didn't play much. Right. At all. At all. Sorry, I was thinking the other injuries. Avion Terrell from Clemson and Brandon Sissy from, from South Carolina. And then it's C say.
Mitch McDonough
I watched him today and I looked up his name. It's C say cc. Yep.
Todd McShay
Yeah. C, say. I thought it was to say. Okay, then it's Jalen Kilgore from, also from South Carolina. Michael Taff from Texas and Kamari Ramsey. Those three are from at the safety position. So that was a long list. It gives you a sense that there's, there's a lot of good players coming in from the underclassman rank. All of those guys are first or second day guys that I mentioned. I'm pretty confident. Okay, maybe a couple of the running backs go fourth round, which is essential, which is the equivalent for other positions of going on day two. I should just right before people start hitting me up at MC, at McShay 13.
Mitch McDonough
That was my immediate reaction to pick on you for that one.
Todd McShay
But yep, I'll, I'll start with you. Any names jump out, whether it's surprises or intriguing, anything that jumps out to you.
Mitch McDonough
I mean there's a bunch, to be honest with you. Right. I'll start with Jermyn McCoy. You mentioned not playing this year. Caleb Banks, the defensive tackle from Florida, only played three games. I thought maybe those injury concerns that they, they might go back, you know that that's something that you don't have any real tape from this year. And you're still going to come out both super talented players. Then moving on. You mentioned Caleb Lomo from Utah. I mean that's obviously going to grab my attention. He's the second offensive tackle on my board. I think he has a chance to be a very early first round pick. But I agree with you. This is a kid who could have got, gone back, gotten stronger, you know, refined a little bit more. He's the left tackle by the way. Spencer Fano is my number one offensive tackle, is Utah' tackle, that's something that, that jumped out to me. I am fascinated with the receiver and corner classes right now. Antonio Williams is someone that I think has flown under the radar. I've not watched a lot of his tape this year because he missed most of the first three games, if not all of the first three games. But he's a really talented player. I want to go back and watch and see what he's done this year. Jacobe Lane, I was surprised that he came out, but a talented dude who is a big play threat in his flash at times when kind of overshadowed. Overshadowed by Mai Lemon. I mean, that's interesting to me. And then looking at the corners, I got to be honest with you, I don't know what to make of it yet. And I, I think that's okay because it's the middle of December. I watched C today and felt like I was going to see a guy that was going to really blow me away, and that was not the case. Not that he's not a talented player, not that I don't think he's going to go early, but I watched every target from this year and I wasn't, I wasn't saying I wasn't seeing a player that I would have told to like, you're going to be a definitive first round pick and you should come out this year. I just didn't see that.
Todd McShay
So there's all of that C say you're talking about.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, I watching today, I liked him.
Todd McShay
Yeah. I don't think he's. Yeah, go ahead.
Mitch McDonough
One other thing I'll throw out at you because I believe this happened and correct me if I'm wrong, with both Cam Ward and Carson Beck is. These guys could still change their mind. Right. I mean, didn't Ward and Beck say they were going?
Joel Klatt
Right.
Mitch McDonough
So something to mention here. Now, I don't know if I've seen it with a position player. That's what we're talking about now. I don't know if that's happened. You know, of course it could have, but it's something to keep an eye on these guys. This is not set in stone until those deadlines hit. There might be guys who are still. Their agents are going to, you know. You know, I know we're talking about going to the draft, but Tennessee just called and they're offering this. So it's kind of a fluid list. This is the, this is a great time of year and a terrible time of year because it's overwhelming in terms of all the information you're getting. And people declaring, and then all you're going to find out, people are going to go back and then, you know, we're still doing the College Football Playoff. And that's, you know, something I really want to focus on. All that stuff is going on. So there's just a lot in terms of information right now.
Todd McShay
Yeah. Typically it has been the quarterbacks, right?
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, I think so. Or at least, at least the most notable.
Todd McShay
A couple things stood out to me. I, I mentioned the, the first. The first part of it being how long that list was already. And, and right. Who, like, honestly, maybe, maybe it is the case where agents of college players are now saying, maybe it's a helpful tool to put your name in the ring as an NFL draft prospect. Maybe, maybe it will inflate your value with the team. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's a possibility. Although I have not heard that. It's just speculating right now. The other thing is 48 guys already, and that obviously doesn't include any player. And I just went through. And you could probably, I don't know how many were underclassmen, but there are dozens upon dozens of prospects playing for the 12 teams, but mostly the 10 teams that we talked about that are, that are, that are not group of five schools. There are dozens upon dozens and I don't know again, how many are underclassmen, but 48 seems like a lot as we sit here on December 17th, when the underclassman date, you know, the declaration date isn't until January 14th. So are we in for a massive number? We're gonna, we're gonna find out why.
Mitch McDonough
Get it out so early. Is there, Is it you. Are you saying, like, maybe it will get some other guys to go back if they see. I honestly, I don't know what's the, what's the mentality there?
Todd McShay
Just, just moving on. Just like I'm doing it. Let's, let's put our name in there. I'm going off to train. I want clarity on. I don't want to answer questions. I don't want there to be, you know, speculation. I'm, I've made a decision. Another thing, like, from a college perspective that stands out. Clemson, like T.J. parker, did not have the year he was expecting. He has another year to go back. He chose not to do so.
Mitch McDonough
You know what's interesting with him and some of these other players will be. See, see how it plays out is that the requirements for the Senior bowl have changed. And I saw that he's an accepted. He's accepted an Invite to go down to Mobile. So he's. Even though he didn't have the year that he, he wanted to have, he still has that opportunity to go down that week of practice and really show out and do what some other guys have done at that game, which is, you know, write the ship and really improve his draft stock. So keep that in mind. Years passed when this list came out. These guys weren't Senior bowl guys. Now some of these guys can go if they meet certain requirements.
Todd McShay
Yeah. And, and Kayla Banks is another one who's, who's accepted his invite to the senior. So I'm not saying anyone's made a bad decision. I'm not. I'm just saying there are, there are a couple guys. But just, just looking at Clemson, like specifically Antonio Williams, Peter Woods, TJ Parker, Avion Terrell, on top of the, the seniors, you know, that like Blake Miller, who's, who's going to be probably a top 50 pick at the offensive tackle position. Kate Clubnik, their quarterback. They're losing a lot from a pro program that underachieves. So that, that's interesting. Just on the college side, returning to school, the list is a lot smaller, as it always is, because there's not a lot of people who need to come out and declare and usually it's heavy in the quarterback.
Mitch McDonough
Do you mean, do you mean resigning?
Todd McShay
Resign? Yes.
Mitch McDonough
In today's modern age, I can't, I can't get my. I can't get my head wrapped around that one.
Todd McShay
I do love some of the names that come up that are returning that you're like, yeah, no, I mean what Clemson did get, one guy will help who was the Purdue transfer. He's returning to school next year. I like that these guys like Quincy Rhodes, the, the edge from Arkansas is returning, but the vast majority, Bear Alexander going back to Oregon, he had a really good year.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, that caught my attention. I thought he might come out, but.
Todd McShay
They pay well at Oregon. Phil Knight helps. But all of that said, I think the, the biggest news coming out are some of the quarterbacks returning.
Mitch McDonough
Yep.
Todd McShay
Now one on the fence. That's fascinating to me. He has made a. Brandon Storesby from Cincinnati who was red hot for a long period of time. And then things started to come off the rails towards the end of the year. Some interceptions, some. Some poor play, inconsistent play, I should say, but has NFL talent. He needs another year. Now he's come out and said, I'm exploring the NFL draft. You know, he's put his name into the advisory committee. But in the meantime, thanks Cincinnati. For all the, you know, for all the, all the, the time and the effort. But I'm, I'm going to put my name in the portal unless I get back a grade, maybe first or second round from the NFL draft advisory committee. And I'll remind everyone every time we bring it up with the advisory committee, it's a group that was put together. I think it could be a very helpful group. They, you're allowed, is it 3 or 5 per, per college to put names in to the advisory committee. They have people who are qualified that they deem qualified with scouting backgrounds to evaluate their tape, talk to people, get a sense of where they would be drafted and then they send back a report to those players that put their name in and it's, you get one of three answers, first round, second round or return to school. And that helps advise a lot of these young players who may be getting information because I get news for you. There are about 210 first round draft picks. If you ask all the agents that you talk, that people talk to every year, it's so true. But I find it interesting that Sorsby did the kind of hedge the bet like if I come back it ain't going to be at Cincinnati even though they, you know, we were on a run and things look good and it looks like we might be making the College Football Playoff at one point. So he's one to keep an eye on that has not officially decided whether he's in or out on the NFL draft. The guys who are returning that have made it official, Arch Manning, as we well know, Lenora Sellers, SC, both guys are projected first rounders in 2027. Sam Levitt not returning and also not returning to Arizona State. Lenora Sellers is returning to South Carolina. So as I talk to people, the Levitt news isn't surprising. As I talk to people, the Sellers news went from surprising to oh, they've put some parameters in and are taking care of him in a way that makes him feel comfortable coming back. Also Jaden Mayava returning to usc, which he should be. Aiden Chiles returning, but in the transfer portal, quite honestly, as he should be. And no disrespect to Pat Fitzgerald, but that's going to be a multi year reclamation project. Child has an opportunity to go play with a lot more talent and there's a lot of other players in the transfer portal. We're not here for that today. What I'm here for is that that those quarterbacks men, anything that stands out to you about the ones that are returning.
Mitch McDonough
Good moves. I mean, I mean just good. The right moves.
Todd McShay
Like I just feel like surprising.
Mitch McDonough
Right down.
Joel Klatt
Down.
Mitch McDonough
Well, I, I will say that I wouldn't say nothing surprising. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them came out because that's just the world we live in. I'm just happy. I, I guess I wouldn't say surprised. Not surprised. That's not really my reaction. It's just, you know, this is smart. I'm glad you guys are doing it. I was a little surprised that Levitt left Arizona State. That's a college football discussion we'll have at some other point. We're doing draft now. Yeah. So there was nothing really there that, that shocked me. But I think everyone wants to know the two, the two big names which are going to be Oregon's Dante Moore and Alabama's Ty Simpson, which we don't have. They have not officially said anything. Right.
Todd McShay
There's urgency in this, man. Let's just get to it. There's urgency, there's a. There's unique qualities to both of these situations. Dante Moore at Oregon and Ty Simpson at Alabama. The first thing that everyone has to realize is next year's class is sensational. And we said this year's class had a chance to be. And it turned out where it's not right now when you look at the, the landscape. Okay. And next year's class, we just talked about Arch Sellers, Mayava, Sam Levitt. Right. All those guys potentially lagway if he gets with the right place and is developed properly. That's not to mention even Julian saying, right, right. And there's a handful of others as well that are all going to be, if not first round, first couple rounds. You know, it's shaping up to be potentially one of the greatest quarterback classes in the history of the NFL draft. Certainly in my tenure here. And we just had a record breaking draft class with six drafted in the top 12, including Caleb Williams, who's come on strong. Jaden Daniels taking a step back with injuries. But Drake May, who continues to ascend to almost MVP level. And then beyond that, JJ McCarthy. Let's see how that plays out. Michael Penn with the injury this year, and Bo Nix is, by the way, quarterbacking. Whether you love them or you don't, a team that is number one seed in the AFC with two losses.
Mitch McDonough
Okay.
Todd McShay
But here's the landscape just so people understand. Next year you've got all those quarterbacks you're competing against. This year you have. If the draft was held today, the New York Giants are Picking it one. And boy, do you want to have the number one overall pick this year. If you'd love to. If you need a quarterback.
Mitch McDonough
Right.
Todd McShay
Honestly, this is a rare year where I would say you'd actually want it more. If you're a team that doesn't need a quarterback, the Giants would be picking it one right now. And I want you to hear me loud and clear when I say this. If the Giants were to finish and the percentages aren't good or if Tennessee were to finish with the number one overall pick, anyone but the Raiders who desperately need a quarterback now that the Geno Smith thing did not work out and they're going to gut that whole thing. Think about what you could have from a team and if it's just Fernando MENDOZA in the first round, you've got the Raiders sitting at 2, Cleveland sitting at 4. That's the draft was held today, the jets sitting at 5 and then the the Rams with that Atlanta traded pick sitting at 10. That's four in the top 10 which is actually less than normal. But three of those four Steve have multiple first round picks. And as we're doing this show, Makai Lemon just officially declared for the NFL draft. Welcome welcome to the show. We that was to be expected but follow me here. Three of those four, Cleveland, the Jets and the Rams have multiple first round picks. Now I think the Rams are more likely to try to maneuver get out of that 10th pick if anyone wants to move up and try to get a pick for 2027 because Matthew Stafford's I don't want to call it a renaissance but like Matthew Stafford's ability to play at an MVP level right now says to me less need as the general manager. We can push this back a year if that if it works out but one of those teams will be willing and yeah the jets have multiple first rounders next year but if they love Mendoza and there's not another quarterback in the mix in the first round which we we could be staring at, I would say it's around 5050 chance someone's going to pay a ransom to get that number one pick.
Mitch McDonough
Right.
Todd McShay
So that so, so that's a backdrop to keep in mind the other part. If you're Dante Moore and Ty Simpson specifically Moore's season went like this rocket ship then lulled in the middle and then has taken back off. Simpson was rocket ship including four straight wins in the SEC or against rant opponents and then all of a sudden no run game. Where's. Where's Ryan Williams, my star receiver what's going on? And I'm starting to press and I've been sacked 26 times or something like that. I'm holding on the ball too long, I'm feeling the pressure. I'm ball security inside the pocket. Five straight games with fumbles. So it is been like chipped away at. But now here we are as the first round of the College Football Playoff begins and I'm talking to people and those people are saying, hey, Todd, they legitimately haven't made decisions because yes, they'll say all the right things. They're focused on what's going to, what's happening. But just like Drew Aller a year ago, and unfortunately for Aller, he probably made the wrong decision and should have just left for the NFL draft. And maybe he's a second round pick a year ago, which would have been a no offense, a big mistake. But there were enough people in the skeleton community, including one of the lists in the preseason that are contracted out by NFL teams where they had a first round great on him. But we talked about it prior to the College Football Playoff last year. Hey, what if, what if Aller plays great, right?
Mitch McDonough
It goes on this route, makes a.
Todd McShay
Run and what if he's like dealing, could he. And then, yeah, they won a game, but, but he didn't. It wasn't anything where, you know, and he winds up coming back to school and all the other players came back and the season didn't go the way they wanted. So when you're, when you're more and you're Simpson, you kind of keep that in mind. But then it's the, hey, let, let, let's see how this thing goes. Because if I put two or three tapes out there that are awesome and I'm playing my best ball at the end, at the end here. And now I've got instead of, for, for Simpson. He has 13 starts. What if he winds up with 16 now and his last three were great and they get Jam Morris back and, and, and they get a run game to balance things out and Ryan Williams shows back up.
Mitch McDonough
Jam Miller. We cannot get his name right, but go ahead.
Todd McShay
I knew, as I said, I didn't.
Mitch McDonough
Want to break up your momentum, but.
Todd McShay
I had Bam Morris, Bam Miller, Jam Miller. Unbelievable.
Mitch McDonough
He's a dude, by the way. I love the way he runs. Like it's just.
Todd McShay
But it's Maui Noah. But it's Maui Noah, the offensive tackle from Miami.
Mitch McDonough
That's right.
Todd McShay
So.
Mitch McDonough
That's right.
Todd McShay
Fool me nine times, you won't get me a tenth. All Right. But my point is, in talking to people who are, who have information on this, neither one has made a decision. There's some leaning according to what I'm hearing. Okay, for let's go to Moore specifically. This was a non issue, an absolute non issue. And I want to remind people that, that Dante Moore is 20 years old. I believe he turns 21 later this month in December. We can look that up. But he's 20 years old at the moment. He's just a pup. He started, what, 12 games this year. They didn't play in the championship. So 12 games plus the five. He has 17 starts. He's mature truly beyond his years. Turns 21 in May. Yeah, that's right. It was right after the draft. That's what it was. So he turns 21 in May. When he's drafted, he'll be 20 years old. If he leaves early, you can go back and you can play another 13, 14, 15 next year. And now you're in that 30 range where all the top quarterbacks, almost all the top quarterbacks we talked about only like two or three quarterbacks that you would consider in the top 15. And the NFL had fewer than 30, what was it, 33 starts or something like that. But even those guys had like 26, you know, 23, 26. So history has shown us the failure rate for guys who have 17 starts somewhere in that range under fewer than 20 starts is significant enough to make a mature young man who is getting paid Phil Knight money to say, you know what? Yes, I lose out on getting one year closer to the second contract where guys are making 40, whatever million a year at the quarterback position. But what if I don't get to that second contract in the NFL as a good starting quarterback in the league? What if I Trabisky it? Yeah, what if? You know what I mean? And what if, what if because I wasn't ready by the time that second contract comes up, I'm no more than a backup? You know, we, we've got Mark Sanchez, we've got Trubisky, we've got Anthony Richardson.
Mitch McDonough
Yes.
Todd McShay
All of them under 20 starts, didn't sustain it. You know, so he. But he's got good people, from what I'm told in his, in his corner and he's a mature young man. I keep getting told this like, he's not going to make. He's not rushed. He is not in a rush. But then his offensive coordinator leaves Will Stein, who has been key in his development. Okay. And so I did some digging on this. He had A very close. He has a very close relationship with Stein. He. It's understanding. There's understanding why he left. Happy for him. No ill will. We'll miss him terribly. There's been some reports of maybe he goes to Kentucky with him. No, it's not happening and it's not about money. It's not about fear of playing in the SEC as some SEC folks would like to think. It's about why am I going to go take a risk in the SEC with a program that does not yet. Maybe it will but it can't keep up talent wise with everybody else in that conference. Just about everybody else in that conference. Especially now the Vanderbilt starting to roll. And then the new offensive coordinator who was hired within who was who was a co offensive coordinator promoted when Wilstein departed and then and now now he's the guy. He's the in house promotion. It's Drew Drew Meringer. There's familiarity, the continuity from what I hear the a nod from Dante Moore that that works. Don't want a lot of change if I'm coming back. So all these factors are in play and meanwhile Oregon's getting ready to to play JMU and then try to advance in the College Football Playoff. But a decision has not been made. Ty Simpson. Look up the, the five star recruit. I, I broke down his name and I only, I only have Russell but find out what, what his name is please for me for Alabama. Ty Simpson. Compare this to Moore who also has not made a decision. Here's what Ty Simpson's up against. Fewer starts than Dante Moore. Didn't finish the season strong. Keelan Russell. Thank you. Didn't finish the season strong. Okay head coach. Where there just seems to be too much buzz and speculation in Michigan and.
Mitch McDonough
Glad you're getting to it man.
Todd McShay
Okay.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah there's a lot of smoke. There's a lot of smoke right now with that program.
Todd McShay
They're in the College Football Playoff and there's still smoke coming off that game in the SEC championship coming off of a four or five game stretch where he just like you could see the decline and the wear on on Ty Simpson. People in Remember I talked to you about Brian Kelly and I said I have close relationships at places and I don't. I'm not, I'm not coming and reporting anything but there's an underswell of some stuff going on where if it, if we hit hit a tipping point that it could be like that then there's also the fact that is Deborah as happy as he thought he might be being the head coach at Alabama. So now you're Ty Simpson and ty, who's not 20 years old. Ty is 23 years old. He's the one who turns 23 next month, later this month, I think it is. He'll be 24. Now that quarterbacks nowadays, they. They play forever, right? I mean, look at. Right Grandpa Rivers, right?
Mitch McDonough
Unbelievable story.
Todd McShay
Yes. But my point is, it's not. It. It's not like you're a running back or, or a, you know, a corner or a wide receiver is going to lose your legs. Like, quarterbacks can play a longer time. So it's not like, oh, he's 23. He's going to be. That means he'll be 24 when he's in the draft in 2027. That doesn't factor in hugely, but I'm telling. I'm giving you the information I'm getting. It's something that's being thought about, but more so it's the stability or lack thereof. What's going on in Alabama with the. If I do come back, is it going to be the. You know, is it the same coaching staff? And if it is or if it isn't, what's the. Is there a chance that. That this Russell Keelan. Russell winds up being the guy that everyone wants, even if I'm the starter, if the second I make so like that. And I'm not saying he's saying that, but there's. There's an element of, what am I even coming back to? There's an element of, do I just transfer if I decide not to go? Which is why it's. It's Heisman front runner just six weeks ago. These are the things that I'm hearing.
Mitch McDonough
This new college football crazy world that we're in right now, it's creating very interesting dynamics of, like, these relationship dynamics are fascinating to me because, like, look at Laning. You're getting ready to make a playoff run. You're getting ready for the portal. You're getting like, all this stuff is going on and then your coordinators leaving, both your coordinators leaving. So you're dealing with multiple players, by the way. Dante Moore is obviously the most important, I would say. But there's other players who, you know, their coordinators leaving, and they're looking at maybe leaving. All this stuff is going on, and you got to manage all that. You got to go to Dante Moore and say, we have a plan. This is why you should be here. This is why you should stay. This is why you can continue to develop here. I Mean, it's. Again, to go back to the conversation that we had with Jake Rosenberg from the athlete group. It is a different world. You need help here. As a head coach, you need help here. And I just. I keep thinking about that conversation because it keeps popping up. And it's when you start to think about what a head coach has to do if you're a championship contender, with dealing with coordinators leaving, dealing with players deciding between the draft and dealing with the portal. These guys have to make decisions before I even think that.
Todd McShay
Like, it's.
Mitch McDonough
It's crazy. It's. It's just a different world now.
Todd McShay
Here's what I know with both of these guys. They're both super talented. They both can play in the NFL. They both. And I've been asked what my opinion is by some people that might be around these situations. If I'm being honest, both of them. My advice, Go back to school. Wherever that is, go back to school for another year. Because at the end of the day, there's trends, there's analysis, there's. There's experience in this profession. And I promise you, Dante and Ty, I promise you, while you can leave now and can go on and have an unbelievably successful career, the odds of you having that unbelievably successful career that you want to have in the NFL and you'll strive and you'll work your ass off for every single day increases if you go back to school next year. I promise you.
Mitch McDonough
I 100 agree. I don't even think it's an opinion. I think it's. It's the data. It's the.
Todd McShay
It's not.
Mitch McDonough
The proof is in the pudding. I will say this, and I'll. I'll just come out and say it. I like both of these quarterbacks. I think you're right. Both could be successful at the NFL. Dante Moore has a much better chance if he comes out this year than a. Ty Simpson comes out this year. He's got some things that he's got to go back. Like, there's. Dante Moore has some more tools. There's. He's a more attractive candidate for a quarterback.
Todd McShay
I don't disagree. I love Ty. Love Ty Simpson.
Mitch McDonough
But I'm. I am. And I'm looking at that situation. I'm looking. All that smoke, and I'm like, I could see how this could lead to someone making a bad decision. I hope that's not the case. Even if it does need transferring, even.
Todd McShay
If it does point in all this, it's because of Deboer in Alabama and this five star and, and things are unsettled in Tuscaloosa and because of, of and leaving to Kentucky and I'm only 20, but I'm playing and then because of. The most important factor in all of this, don't forget, is what I started off with. There's four teams in the top 10, three of which have multiple first round picks that are desperately looking for their future quarterback. And there's currently one and he's not even officially declared, but he will be after this College Football Playoff, whenever that is for Indiana in Fernando Mendoza, who is a clear cut, no questions about it, first round pick, supply, demand.
Mitch McDonough
Agree.
Todd McShay
And the supply in a year we thought was going to be really good turns out kind of sucks. And so now, now if I'm, now if I'm tie and I know deep down in my heart I'm a coach's kid, I'm smart, I get all this information. I like, I've studied this my whole life. I was, I was, I worked to be, but also was destined to put myself in a situation like this. I know what the right information is. I know that if I go back to school for another year and keep getting better, I get a better chance of succeeding in the NFL. But if I, if I come back to school, is it at Alabama? If it is, is it tumultuous? Who's the head coach? Am I fighting off this five star every time I throw a pick, is everyone screaming Russell in the stadium, put in Russell. And I don't even think that's factoring in, but it's like what's more stable for me? And then I do come back and try to play, am I better off playing somewhere else? And then for more, it's again, very mature beyond 20 years old. And I keep getting told that, like, don't just because one's 23 turning 24 and one's 20 turning 21. Don't, don't get it twisted. These guys are both super mature, smart young men who have all this information. Todd, they will, they know what the right decision is. But there ain't no way. The Rams, I mean the, the Raiders, the Browns, the jets and the Rams and the top 10 picks, we're done with those. We get to pick 11. And you and I are sitting there in the LA studios ranting and raving about who's on the board at number 11. And if, if, if, whether it's More or Simpson, if they're on that, they would be still on the board if they're in that draft class in this upcoming draft class. I agree, it's fascinating. And by the way, as we prepare for the College Football Playoff starting on Friday with Alabama and Oklahoma, with Ty Simpson as the starting quarterback of Alabama, going up against John Matier for Oklahoma, there's a lot on the line, man.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, it's the high stakes football, man.
Todd McShay
Especially there's a lot on the line.
Mitch McDonough
Again, it's a draft show, but I mean the, there's a lot on the.
Todd McShay
Line for Al and we're going to transition now for the program for the pro. Like Debore wins at Norman. They go on even a couple game run. It's like, oh, everything's good here. Come on back, Ty. Let's go. They go out and they play like, like they played against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. I'm telling you, it, it's not going to be pretty and it's not going to be some soft landing spot where. Yeah. On the next year and that's going to add to the drama. And by the way, then, then we're on, we're like the, the 20th of December and the, the declaration dates on the, on the 14th and it's like, I don't know, I can't remember. It's just different. It's just different. But those two young men have, have a lot of pressure on them for the, for and, and they're focused and they're not thinking about any of this stuff. We're doing the thinking and the people around them are doing the thinking for them right now when it comes to this stuff so that when they're done with their job and their singular purpose, they can make an educated decision. But a whole lot of stuff is going to be at stake starting with that first game on Friday night. Oklahoma, Alabama. Fascinating calls, man. I had some fascinating calls. Yeah, I mean it seems like a good place to transition. Let's, let's run through these four games real quickly. We have Joel Clack coming up and as I mentioned off the top, we get so caught up in the buzz. I probably should have promoted it more. Doesn't matter. He's going to be here and everyone's going to get to see one of the preeminent college football analysts out there. He's covered, you know, a bunch of these teams playing in the College Football Playoff and knows the game, you know, as well as, as anyone out there when it comes to college football and, and what we're about to see and enter into in the college football playoffs. So we're Excited to talk to him. But before we do that, a couple of things I want to knock out. Okay. First off, I literally, on a whim, I was like, I love competing. Let's compete. We got four games.
Mitch McDonough
I know. And you had to go there.
Todd McShay
Go ahead. I know. And I text you like, five minutes before the show. Four games. We got four games this weekend. One on Friday. As I mentioned. Alabama, Oklahoma. I'm pulling my FanDuel app. I'm not, like, taking text. Here's my FanDuel app.
Mitch McDonough
It's so easy to get there, by the way. So easy. I mean, it took me three minutes to find everything I needed, download the.
Todd McShay
App, and get involved.
Mitch McDonough
Maybe not even.
Todd McShay
All right, so Alabama, Oklahoma. So the. The contest that I want to do and Tucker Dan behind the scenes, keep tabs on this. We're going to pick every game versus the spread for the College Football Playoff. Men versus McShay. You can ride or die with me or you can ride or die with men. She's got a better beard. He's nicer. He's. He's a fan favorite, so you're probably gonna ride with him. See how that turns out.
Mitch McDonough
Such a backhanded compliment.
Todd McShay
Alabama, Oklahoma. The spread is Oklahoma at home is the eight seed minus one and a half. And we don't have to go into deep breakdowns here, but give me. Give me who you like in that game and when. Stop me when we get through, when we get to the one that is your fan. Dual pick of the week at FD Sportsbook, by the way, and download the app because they, like. We have a lot of great people and we'll get to more of them here on the show that are a lot of great organizations that are keeping us rolling and something that a lot. Everyone here is getting behind and we appreciate it, but FanDuel has been the best partner, like, from the jump, man, and. And we appreciate it, but I also just love their app, you know?
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, it's great.
Todd McShay
Alabama, Oklahoma, minus one and a half. Oklahoma. Who you got?
Mitch McDonough
I got Oklahoma. I think it's really tough to beat a great team twice, and I think Alabama is a really good team, but I just. It's for the very reasons we just talked about. I am that program. I don't know what's going on there. There's a little too much uncertainty for me, and I. And I think this should be a very close game. I like Oklahoma at home because they're at home, and I also like the. Because of the uncertainty with what's going on in Alabama.
Todd McShay
I went back and looked. They had like twice as many first downs. Alabama did. They had the ball for 10 more minutes than Oklahoma did.
Mitch McDonough
I hear you.
Todd McShay
They had nearly twice as much offensive production as Oklahoma did. And yet for everything you just said, I'm taking Oklahoma too. Yeah, man, be no blood on this one. I just. Norman night game. We saw that Michigan game earlier in the year. You add all the stuff going on in Tuscaloosa and. And honestly, part of me is like, is this a sucker play? Because Alabama clearly knew it was in the College Football Playoff without that SEC.
Mitch McDonough
Championship, we're gonna see a different Alabama team. Yep.
Todd McShay
I promise you that. What I don't know is are we gonna see Ryan Williams?
Joel Klatt
Right.
Todd McShay
Because there is no run game. Even if. If Jam Jam Miller is back at 100, which it doesn't sound like he will be. And there's questions whether he'll play or not. I do think he'll wind up playing. And we know Josh Cuevas is back. He was at practice the other day doing limited stuff, but he's tracking and they say he's making great.
Mitch McDonough
Talented tight end.
Todd McShay
Yep. A lot of those guys. Was it 14 guys sat out the SEC championship game. I think it was for Alabama. Won't be the case here. Maybe just two or three, four at the most. And I don't even know that it will be that number. Am I also ridiculous to think they didn't play in the SEC championship game? You've got almost three weeks for mater to you. Do you know that in seven games since returning from the Texas game, John Matier's thrown four touchdown passes and seven interceptions?
Mitch McDonough
I know, man, I know. Don't try to talk me out of it.
Todd McShay
I'm actually not. I'm saying I'm wondering if a few weeks to like maybe there was a resting period, maybe there was a little rehab period. Maybe it can't hurt. It can hurt.
Mitch McDonough
It can't, cannot hurt.
Todd McShay
So that's that. All right, next game, Miami. Texas A and M. A and M is minus three and a half. At home is the seven seed versus ten seed Miami. Miami. From the lowly accident, Miami with Carson Beck, some retread quarterback. Miami doesn't belong. Texas A M, they are put in a position to make a run in this thing because they shouldn't have been seated that low. So the committee took care of them. They're playing in Arlington, Texas. If they win this game at home, basically two home games to get to the semifinals. Who you got?
Mitch McDonough
I got Miami. They break Texas A and M hearts. They.
Todd McShay
They.
Mitch McDonough
You do too, right?
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Mitch McDonough
I just think I'm going with the. For me, this is the safe investment. I love A M. I've talked about them all year. They're just too volatile. I just don't know. I can't trust them. I don't. I cannot trust them. And when I'm competing against you, I need someone I can trust in the situation. And I. As crazy as this is to think about, by the way, because Miami really, we trusted Miami. I just feel like I can trust Beck a little bit more than Reed. I'm going Miami. I even like the money line here. Like, I know we're going to spreads, but I like to. I like Miami to just win this game.
Todd McShay
Plus 140. If you want to get involved, you know what else you can get involved in. I actually think Miami could win two games in a row in this college football playoff. I know it sounds crazy.
Mitch McDonough
Interesting.
Todd McShay
I know it sounds crazy. I think they're talented enough on the defensive side. They're getting C.J. daniels back at wide receiver and he played two catches in the. In the last regular season game against Pitt. But he was a big time factor. In his. In his absence, have been a couple other guys who have stepped up the experience thing. I know you and you and you and Stanford Steve have been busting my stones all week. I'll remind you and I'll read you the numbers again. Stanford Steve, 281 snaps. Carson Beck's the most experienced quarterback in the dance. I love you.
Mitch McDonough
This is so on brand for you.
Todd McShay
Did you put it.
Mitch McDonough
Do you have Miami winning in the. In the second round in your bracket?
Todd McShay
Yes.
Mitch McDonough
No, you don't.
Todd McShay
I swear.
Mitch McDonough
You do? Yes.
Todd McShay
I turned it in the other day.
Mitch McDonough
Wow.
Todd McShay
Plus 700. It was. When I made this, when I made this declaration the other day, you weren't there. It was an ad read for FanDuel +700. In my FanDuel ad read the other day, they say, all right, Steve, we're done with the show. You can go. I sit back and I do an ad read. I dropped in this nugget. All of a sudden that thing goes, that goes out. And now I asked Bill Simmons the other day what it was and he says, Plus 650. It's gone down moving lines. But I'm telling you, if you got a little scratch, I think Miami could be a. I can't believe it. I can't believe you did it.
Mitch McDonough
Good for you. That's usually your. Usually your move is oh, you watch out for this. And then you play. You go chalk when you. When you have to put your money where your mouth is.
Todd McShay
I just love how you and Stanford Siever are always busting me midweek on our text thread. And then. And then Signetti goes and coaches the. The best coaching job of anyone, huh?
Mitch McDonough
Okay, okay. All right.
Todd McShay
All right. Tulane. Ole Miss. Who you got? Sorry. Tulane at Ole Miss. Rematch of a 4510 game I believe is the final two. Lane 22. Lane is ranked 20. I was given the rankings. This should be the seats. Ole miss is the sixth seed and Ole Miss is favored by 17 and a half.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, I got them to cover. I think they're pissed off. I think they got something to prove in this game and they're a far more talented team. I don't think it was a fluke. I also, I got my eye on this. And something I want to ask Joel about too is these coaching changes and how they're going to affect teams. I mean, Tulane and JMU is one thing, but Oregon losing both coordinators, that's something I got in my eye. But again, Tulane's losing their head coach. He's going somewhere else. It's hard to be in two places at the same time. I think as much as these guys are trying to do it, I just don't see there's no formula here for me for Tulane to make this a tight game. I think Ole Miss comes out and just blows the doors off of Tulane to prove a point.
Todd McShay
I actually agree, too. This is the worst segment in the history of shows. Well, JMU ranked 24th coming in, 12 seed Oregon, 5 seed Oregon at home, 21 1/2 point favorite. Who you got?
Mitch McDonough
I'm terrified that JMU is going to somehow backdoor cover this, but I got Oregon. I think Oregon covers here, too.
Todd McShay
Ah, I got you on one.
Mitch McDonough
You do, huh?
Todd McShay
I got you on one. And you know what? This is my fanduel pick of the week.
Mitch McDonough
Here we go.
Todd McShay
Oh. Oh.
Mitch McDonough
My Ole Miss covering is my FanDuel pick of the week. And I don't usually like to go with that big of a spread for the pick of the week, but I like, really like Ole Miss in that game.
Todd McShay
Okay, so Ole Miss is your fanduel pick of the week -17 and a half over two, lane. Yes, and I agree with you on that one. Where we disagree is JMU. Oregon, you've got Oregon -21 and a half. And I'm dropping the FanDuel pick of the week right on your face. Men.
Mitch McDonough
I'm very uncomfortable with how you were.
Todd McShay
I think Chesney, I think Bob Chesney's a man of honor. I think Bob Chesney's trying to show the world. I don't think that they've got, they've got a passing game that's going to keep up. But I do think with their run game, with their defense, they're going to slow this thing down. They're going to frustrate Oregon maybe by 16, 17, but they did not, they're not getting to 22.
Mitch McDonough
They're not that backdoor cover. I still like, I like Oregon to cover. I still do it.
Todd McShay
So Those are our FanDuel picks of the week. All right. As promised, we'll get some real analysis on this show. Yeah, he's a real pro, as McDonough used to recite to me. Joel Clapp is coming up and we're excited to talk to him and we'll cover all four of those games. But now there's only one, there's only one play in that board that I can get an edge on you and it's, it's my FanDuel pick of the week. So it turns out okay. But hopefully in round two, we'll have a lot more disagreement.
Mitch McDonough
Be a little more interesting, but here.
Todd McShay
We go with Joel Clatt. The McShay show is brought to you by FanDuel. Game day hits different this time of year. The stakes rise, the crowds get Louder. And now FanDuel is giving you something extra. That's right, all customers get a profit boost every College Football Playoff game day. That means more chances to level up your picks and turn big moments into even bigger wins. So what are you waiting for? Visit fanduel.com mcshay to get your college playoff profit boost today must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 and older in present DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com call 1-888-78-97777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Scout Motors. As we get closer to the playoffs, everyone's focused on the future. Who's advancing, who's not. Scout Motors is focused on the future too. The all new Scout Terra and Scout Traveler will combine iconic heritage with reimagined engineering and design with plans for advanced four wheel drive and optional 35 inch tires. They'll be ready for whatever challenges come next, whether that's winter roads or no roads at all. Join the waitlist@scout motors.com concept vehicles not available for sale. Features and performance specifications are preliminary and subject to change. Joining the waitlist does not guarantee purchase. Visit scoutmotors.com for more details.
Mitch McDonough
This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. You'll find everything you need for the holidays at Whole Foods Market.
Todd McShay
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In a hurry, skip the crowds and order online for pickup and delivery and select zip codes. Shop for everything you need at a Whole Foods Market, your holiday headquarters. There he is, as promised. Mr. Klatt. What's going on, buddy?
Joel Klatt
Not much. Just. Just fending off Internet trolls the last few days.
Todd McShay
What'd you do now?
Joel Klatt
Oh, I had a horrendous take about the NCAA Basketball tournament. Worded it awful. I. My whole take is, is basically, and I, and I still believe this. If your objective is to crown the best team, then the NCAA basketball tournament is not a great structure. It's. It's a bad tournament. It's a great tournament for entertainment and to see which team can actually just win. That made for TV entertainment event. But it doesn't always give us the best basketball team. And obviously that's what we're trying to do in the College Football Playoff is we're trying to identify who's the best team of college football. So I said it, but I said it with, with dumber language. I said like, well, the NCAA basketball tournament's a joke. And it's like, well, of course that's going to be a headline. And everyone's like, well, that's a bad take. And I'm like, yeah. I also prefaced it by saying, hey, this is a bad hot take. And you know, people don't seem to want to see that now.
Todd McShay
They, they only, they only take the part that gets their headline.
Joel Klatt
But yeah, for sure.
Todd McShay
Well, we're glad you're here anyway and.
Joel Klatt
Good to be here.
Todd McShay
We can talk on football. Let's talk some football. And there's, there's two great matchups and then two lopsided matchups and we can get to a little bit of those if we. If we get there, but I'd much rather. Take your time. Let's start on Friday night, right? Oklahoma. Alabama. All right, man. You know what time it is?
Mitch McDonough
What time is it? I'm sure you're gonna tell me.
Todd McShay
It's scout time, baby. I'm telling you. I'm getting mentioned. That beautiful beard up in New Hampshire in the mountains, down to the coast in a scout. Right, so now it's time for today's big game breakdown brought to you by Scout Motors. Love this new partnership we have with them and love the fact that we're gonna push so hard with Tucker that he's gonna find a way to get us up near the top of that list to get inside one of these beauties. And just like these breakdowns we're doing, Scout Motors is looking forward to iconic in the 70s, reimagined for tomorrow with plans for locking differentials. They'll be more than ready for the big leagues. I look at this, I do think one of the great benefits of being a football player and any, any athlete, to be honest, is you learn the skill of compartmentalizing, Right?
Joel Klatt
Yeah.
Todd McShay
And there can be all sorts of noise and nonsense and different stuff going on outside the building, but through the structure and then through. Through learned experiences, you. You figure out ways to kind of stay inside that bubble, isolate, push out all the externals and focus on what you need to do. It feels like in this game there's a lot of externals with Alabama. Is Ty Simpson staying or going? There's a five star recruit coming up. Kaylin DeBoer's names in the Michigan talk. Now, there's just the way they played against Georgia in the SEC championship game. I guess my question is, what are you expecting to see from this Alabama program where mid season, four ranked opponents in the sec, they were rolling.
Joel Klatt
Yeah.
Todd McShay
And everyone's talking Ty Simpson, Heisman, Alabama national championship. It feels very different right now.
Joel Klatt
Very different. I agree. I think that players and football in general does a great job of compartmentalizing your entire life, really, and allowing you to kind of leave things outside of the lines where they are and inside of the lines focused on what you're doing. Also the structure of just how you prepare for football games. You know, hey, listen, I study base downs on this day. I study third down on this day. And the practice. The regiment of football can get your mind off of distractions. However, I would say this, most coaches will tell you, and I do believe this to be true, that the quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted, because if your attention isn't fully on that regiment and that structure, then you're not preparing your best. So the question lies in just where are their heads at through the preparation process, getting ready for this game? And if it's fully on Oklahoma, then. Then they should be just fine. Now you bring up this. This idea or the. The question of how they're playing now, and it's not great. I'll just be, like, real candid with you. The last four games in particular, Ty Simpson has kind of fallen off of a cliff. He's below 60% completion percentage. They're barely throwing for over 200 yards per game. In their last four. He's got five turnovers, only five touchdowns. And. And they've got a, you know, a cupcake in there in the last four. Georgia put together a blueprint that everyone's going to look at when they watch the film and say, like, oh, this is how we're going to get after him. Florida State did the same thing. And I do. I was wondering, like, well, how can they look so good in one area of the season and so bad in another? And I think it comes in the idea of the unlocking. It's a Rubik's cube. A team is a Rubik's cube, and opposing coaches are trying to unlock the Rubik's cube. And for a lot of this season, it was hard to unlock. Well, how do you attack Alabama from a defensive to their offensive perspective? And that started to be unlocked. One thing we know about Bama, they don't run the football very well.
Todd McShay
No.
Joel Klatt
And. And they won't be that committed to running the football. So if you're not going to be balanced, then you're going to throw the football a lot. Well, if you throw the football a lot now, we can start zeroing in on your pressures. How. Or, excuse me, your protections. How do you protect the quarterback? You know, where do you slide? What. What triggers a remake? You know, all these, like, very nuanced things that as the season goes on, you start to unlock it because you see teams do things to them that hurt them. And then all of a sudden you get a game like Georgia and it's like, they don't have a chance. Now maybe Georgia's turning into the best team in the country that could be part of this as well. But I. But I also believe that Bama's got to break out of a funk in the middle of dealing with a bunch of distractions. So I Don't love where they're at just from a playing perspective or from a mentality perspective going into this game.
Todd McShay
And then on the flip side you've got John Mattier who, who again early, very early in the season it was. Oh, you know, I think he was the Heisman favorite a few weeks into.
Joel Klatt
The year after that Michigan game.
Todd McShay
Yeah, the Michigan game. And then he even. It was a close game against Auburn but he, he played great down the stretch and the defense has been the consistent. It's been one of the elite units in all of college football year. But Mater with the thumb injury in that the Red river game against Texas has just never been the same. And, and at least you can point to something tangible and say, well, he had thumb surgery in the middle of the season. Of course the accuracy is going to dip and maybe forcing some things at times. But they go into this game also not running the football very well, although a little bit better down the stretch. But Mattier, I was telling Steve earlier, I looked, I looked it up earlier, since that Texas game, it's been four, just four touchdown pass.
Joel Klatt
Yeah, that's is wild, isn't it?
Todd McShay
Seven interceptions in a seven game stretch for this guy who was like the number one transfer portal bringing his offensive coordinator and everything looks so great early on. What are you expecting to see? Maybe a few weeks with the thumb and a little rest and a little rehab and. Or is it. Is this just who Oklahoma is and this is what John Mateer is going to be until, until he gets an off season to, to adjust?
Joel Klatt
Yeah. You remember last year Curtis Rourke dealt with a very similar hand injury and I actually did the game that he heard it in, it was Nebraska at Indiana and he hurt his hand. He was never the same, you know, before that he, he was throwing the ball so well and so effectively and after that it just wasn't quite the same. Even though they had a successful season and wound up in the playoff. But certainly that hurt them against Notre Dame when they went on the road. I feel the same way about Mater. He has not been the same throw in the football, not nearly the same. And I think the accuracy is the one thing that when I watch, when I watch the tape and I watch his, his attempts, to me it just doesn't come out of his hand the same. I don't know if you feel the same way, but I totally agree there. It's, it's. Yeah, it's not, it's not there. So what they've had to do is, is learn as a team how to win in a different way. And I'll give them a lot of credit for this. And I think you guys will agree they have found a way to build into wins. Now, there's no program in America that does that better than Iowa over the years, right? They build themselves into success over multiple series by playing great defense, playing great special teams and getting themselves in a position where they can ultimately get some points. That's what Oklahoma is. Oklahoma right now is a version of Iowa. If they don't get an explosive touchdown or have some sort of turnover to create a short field, they don't score. And give them a lot of credit because they're leaning on two elite units. The defense is elite, the special teams is elite. And, and they're using that to go out and win games. The one thing that, that I would give them also in this game, and I think it's a massive advantage and it's something that we haven't had to deal with throughout the history of college football. And now this is something that we're just starting to get to analyze and, and walk ourselves through, is the impact of home playoff games. Last year it was enormous. Double digit wins by all the home teams in, in the first round of the playoff. What is the environment going to do to that pass rush, which led the country with 41 sacks, in particular against a team in Alabama that has shown that there are some holes in their protection plan. And you can get after Simpson. So the, the aggressive nature that Brent wants to play on defense and he will attack Todd, you know, I mean, oh my gosh, get after you, man. And I assume after watching that Georgia tape that it is just going to be like, I mean, just every snap, I think Simpson's gonna get some sort of pressure.
Todd McShay
All right, match. That was our big game breakdown. It was brought to you by our good friends at Scout Motors. They're all new. Scout Terra and Scout Traveler are all about combining iconic heritage with today's technology for whatever the future holds. Join the wait list@scoutmotors.com Men, I gotta get you in one of these things, man.
Mitch McDonough
I can't dare to dream, man. I don't even want to dare to dream.
Todd McShay
You got a dream. Be a dreamer, Mitch. Concept vehicles not available for sale. Features and performance specifications are preliminary and subject to change. Joining the wait list does not guarantee purchase, although we're hoping. Visit scoutmotors.com for more details.
Mitch McDonough
First of all, Merry Christmas. Joel always forgets to say, you know, forgets his manners. So Merry Christmas. I hope you and Your family are enjoying the season. But I wanted to ask you, unfortunately.
Todd McShay
For us, draft Santa over here. Yeah.
Mitch McDonough
I gotta call you out.
Joel Klatt
You got the white beard and everything.
Todd McShay
Exactly.
Mitch McDonough
So unfortunately for us, you're not calling any of these playoff games. Yeah. So, I mean, we're all missing out, I think. But if you're looking at this first round slate, I think there's probably two that you could toss out immediately. But out of the other two, which one would you want to call?
Joel Klatt
The one we were talking about. This.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
This Bama, Oklahoma game. There's so much familiarity tonight. Yeah. I mean, although I'm partial to noon kickoffs, guys, as you know. Yeah. You know, I mean, I think Kyle Field will also be. Will be great. But there's. There's something tell you, man, the palace on the prairie, when it gets going, it's really good. Not the Kyle Field isn't. Kyle Field is incredible as well. But like, there's something about this in particular. This is a culmination, remember now, I think this place is going to be on fire. I think this is a culmination from that Sunday morning when Lincoln Riley woke up and left them until like, this is their building.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Joel Klatt
And this is their reemergence onto the playoff stage, which is where they believe they belong every time.
Todd McShay
It is their right.
Joel Klatt
It is their right as Sooner fans. And so like that place. I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it right now. OU is going to be insane on Friday night.
Mitch McDonough
That's what's great about the first round is having those home games they should do in the second round too, I think.
Joel Klatt
Obviously. Obviously. Like if wins, Ohio State has to play him in Dallas.
Todd McShay
And what are we doing?
Joel Klatt
College football. What are we doing?
Mitch McDonough
Second round home games, Please. Let's get that fixed. Looking at the playoff field. Looking at the playoff field, kind of the total picture here. If you're a team that's down 4, I think we agree on what quarterback you want here. But you're down for two minutes left in the game. You get the ball in your own 25. What offense do you think is best suited to come through in that situation?
Joel Klatt
Oh, man.
Mitch McDonough
Right.
Joel Klatt
Well, I mean, candidly, we've only wish you.
Todd McShay
It's not just players.
Joel Klatt
Now. I'm. I'm fighting myself right now. This is what I.
Mitch McDonough
But I asked myself these questions. Well, I start to think too.
Joel Klatt
Are you saying from a personnel standpoint or a system standpoint or the whole thing.
Mitch McDonough
Coordinators, personnel, quarterback, obviously a big part of that.
Joel Klatt
This I am so Sorry, Kurt Signetti, he's going to listen to this and text me. I'm. I apologize. But don't you have to take Ryan Day calling plays and Jeremiah Smith on the outside like I. Yeah, right.
Mitch McDonough
I think you do. I think you do. Yeah.
Joel Klatt
But to be, to be totally fair, we haven't seen them, they haven't had to do that. And they got shut down in the last 40 minutes against Indiana. Meanwhile, Indiana, they score late in Austin in the fourth quarter, drive down the field and score. They score late at Iowa, drive down the field and score in the last two minutes. And then the game I witnessed firsthand against Penn State, it's second and 18 and they go right down the field with no timeouts. They score in the fourth quarter against Ohio State. So if you're asking me for a proven commodity, I would take Indiana.
Mitch McDonough
Interesting. I. That's the two I debated with too. And I'm going to flip the script. Same situation. Which defense do you want?
Joel Klatt
Ohio State. That's not even.
Mitch McDonough
I. Oh, wow. I think Indiana is interesting to me there, but. Yeah, I hear you. I hear you.
Joel Klatt
It is. But the, the personnel, they have four first round draft picks right down the middle. The last time, the last time, guys, the last time we saw four right down the middle was Miami.
Todd McShay
Oh 50604 with was 01 maybe it.
Joel Klatt
Might have been 01 early 2000s had four right down, right down the middle. This team has them right down the middle. And, and by the way, their corner, Davison Igbosin, he's playing well. He's playing well. You know, there's. I think he'll be a top 40 pick, guys.
Todd McShay
Yeah. Which I would not have expected coming into this year.
Joel Klatt
He still scared the penalties.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, the penalties still scare me, but they haven't. He's been much better this year. That's significant.
Todd McShay
Better. Yeah, it's. It's a fascinating feel and we did this the other day. I'm just gonna. Who cares? We're. We can talk Texas A and Miami later if we want or we don't have to. Last year we went into the playoffs, right? Dylan Gabriel, Quinn Ewers, Nico I. Amaliava, Cade Clubnik, Drew Aller, Will Howard, Kevin Jennings, Riley Leonard, Maddox Madsen, like Curtis Rourke. This year we've got. It's like in no order by the way, because I'll get yelled at. Fernando Mendoza, Julian Saying, Ty Simpson, Dante Moore, John Matier, Carson Beck, Gunner Stockton, Trinidad Chambliss, like Marcel Reed. That to me and then the fact that eight of the top 12 defenses in the country are represented in this college football playoff. Like, great defenses, great quarterbacks.
Joel Klatt
Yep.
Todd McShay
I'm. I just think it's going to be a wild ride. Yeah.
Joel Klatt
And. And, you know, I would put Baron Morton in there, you know.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
Because I, I, you know, I know you're. You're like, I'm with you. I think that this has a chance to be a really great playoff. And I will tell you, I think it's fascinating. I think football goes in cycles and in arcs, you know, and guys, remember, you know, Bama of 2000, was it 9, 11, 12. It was like, line it up, play insane defense and run the rock. Right. Like, that's how you won the national championship and recruit your butt off. And then all of a sudden, you know, Nick takes that style of team and he's like, hold on, what is. What is that over there? You know, that's Deshaun Watson and Clemson. And all of a sudden they're having to win 45, 42. And he's like, oh, my gosh. You know, and so all of a sudden it changes. And now all of a sudden it's like, he brings in Lane Kiffin, he modernizes the offense. And so all of college football went towards, hey, you might have to win a shootout. And so we're going to go faster. Tempo became, you know, really the norm across the entire sport. Ohio State was using it, Alabama was using. Everybody was using it. And what's fascinating to me is that in the last two years, it has swung back. You look at the two best teams in the country, at least in the regular season, Indiana and Ohio State. Did you guys know they were the slowest tempos of anybody in the sport? They ran the fewest snaps of anybody in college football.
Mitch McDonough
I didn't know that.
Joel Klatt
Yeah, and it's, It's. I think it's. I think it's a. It's a nod to the helmet communication, the, the. And also the idea of protecting your defense. So, like, for instance, Texas Tech will have played. I think it's 190 more defensive snaps than Ohio State and Indiana played this year. That's crazy, right? So we're seeing, you know, Michigan wins the national title last year, Ohio State wins it, or, excuse me, two years ago, now Ohio State wins it, and it's coming back to defense control, you know, control the game and situational football. And I think that's what ultimately is going to win out in this college football playoff. I think you have to be balanced. You better be a Solid team everywhere if you're going to win this thing.
Todd McShay
And you got to have an experienced quarterback mensch to operate this whole thing. Which is why I went on a rant the other day about Carson beck and his 2881 snaps and Baron Morton2530.
Joel Klatt
So are you in on Beck? I'd love get to that one. I really want to talk about that one. Are you in on Beck and Crystal Ball going on the road in a massive game and executing? That's the question.
Todd McShay
I actually am.
Joel Klatt
Okay.
Todd McShay
Because I think the other team is supremely talented. I think the quarterback is capable of the second half versus South Carolina. I think he's capable of some other. I don't trust Marcel Reed, if I'm being honest.
Joel Klatt
Sure.
Todd McShay
And it's, it's like, I mean, the.
Joel Klatt
Last three games are. Have not been great. They've had like eight turnovers.
Todd McShay
And I, I can still love the young man. I can think he's like unbelievable athlete. I can, I can see all the positives. But now in this moment against that defense and, and I do like the fact that, that Miami, they went through their Ruth. I don't like the comments from Carson Beck and I don't. But that doesn't mean that they weren't correct. And then talking to scouts in the league, being like, who are. Who I thought would be scouts are the angriest bunch of human beings in the world.
Joel Klatt
They hate every. They hate everyone.
Todd McShay
They'll fight, they. They'll find something wrong with everyone and multiple tricks. It's true. But to hear them going through the building and being like. And me being like, oh, here we go. I'm asking about Carson Beck and kind of Duck, you know, and a couple different scouts be like, you know what? He wasn't wrong. And I think he's trying to, you know, and so we have seen maturity in him. And so I don't love the, the, the fact that they're entering this playoff without a great, trusted run game.
Joel Klatt
Yep.
Todd McShay
I do like that they're getting a little healthier wide receiver. I like their defense a lot. I actually. Gun to head, I'm taking Miami to go win at. At Cockfield.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah, I like Miami. I like Miami to win that game too. But I am, I won't dance around it like McShay. I am terrified. I mean, I am terrified that Crystal Ball is going to make a decision that that makes me look like what, you know, we should.
Todd McShay
Oh, it's better.
Mitch McDonough
And Beck has that bad game. It's just, it is but, but Reed's.
Joel Klatt
Got that in his bag too, you know, like.
Mitch McDonough
Absolutely.
Joel Klatt
Don't you? Don't you? I. This is what I think it comes down to. Whichever quarterback can be clean. If, if. And I don't. I'm not even saying they have to play great. Just, just clean. Because I think clean. Both defenses are good. They. They both rush the passer well. A and M does it a little bit better. A and M is a little bit more balanced on offense. They can run it, you know, I think more efficiently, which should help Reed be in a position where he's not. He's not in a precarious spot having to throw the football the entire day. That's my fear for Miami, is that if they're unable to run the football because there's been games this year where they're well under three and a half yards per carry. Well, if that happens now, it's just a Beck game on the road in Kyle Field and that's terrifying. Against that pass rush. Cassius Howell is a man.
Todd McShay
Oh my God.
Joel Klatt
Man.
Todd McShay
Oh, yeah.
Joel Klatt
Watching him get off the ball. And so I think about the crowd noise, the get off, that would be problematic, you know, so. So Miami better control this game. I think that if they don't get a lead early, it could get away from them because to me, A and M feels like a momentum team. They either have it all or they don't at all. You know, and we saw that in the South Carolina game. We saw it, you know, in the Texas game and even in the Notre Dame game a little bit like there were series where they didn't have anything and then their series was like, Notre Dame can't stop him at all. I think it's going to be a fascinating game, but it comes down to the quarterback making mistakes or not making mistakes, whoever can play clean. I don't think the quarterback has to be great in this game, to be honest with you. Just has to play clean.
Todd McShay
I'm going to rip through we're a fan duel show here and I'm not going to ask you to make any. Any bets. I'm not doing that. But Ohio State and Indiana are plus 195. And in the. And for Ohio State, Indiana's plus three. 10. George is plus 600. So those are the three favorites to win the whole thing. If you had to pick one of the. Everyone else is +850. And it dips down when you start with A m and beyond plus 1900. No chance. Right.
Joel Klatt
Okay.
Todd McShay
If you had to pick a. A Program not named Ohio State, Indiana or Georgia. Who you think could make a run and surprise even FanDuel. Which, which program would it be?
Joel Klatt
Oregon.
Mitch McDonough
Yes.
Joel Klatt
Watch out for Oregon.
Mitch McDonough
Yes.
Joel Klatt
I know that they've got some youth, and I know they've got a really difficult matchup in round two against Texas Tech. I, I, and I totally understand that, but it's just eerily quiet enough in Eugene right now where I'm like, right, okay. Because it is. You know what I mean? And I keep coming back to, you know what? No one's talking about that. Last year they saw it and it happened to them. They have a chip on their shoulder. Yeah, they, they saw. They went undefeated. They won the Big Ten. They get to the Rose bowl and then like, here's number four racing down the field the entire first half. And that, that happened to them. And I think ever since that day, they've been waiting for this day this week and the following, like, there's, there's something about this team. I think that they run it really well. The back half of the year, guys, they've been the, I think, the best rushing team on film in the country. You know, the stats will tell you whatever it is over the great backfield.
Mitch McDonough
Yep, great.
Joel Klatt
But in the second half of the year, they've been the best rushing team in the country, and it's allowed Dante Moore to become a better player. They've had to do that because they've been banged up at wide receiver. The only concern that I have is their really young in the secondary. And if they have to go up against an Ohio State at some point or if Morton gets going with Texas Tech or if Mendoza gets going with Surat, you know, that could be a little bit problematic for them. But of those teams outside of those, those top three that you mentioned, I think, I think it's Oregon. I would be very leery of how quiet it is out of Eugene, Oregon right now.
Todd McShay
I like that.
Mitch McDonough
Do you, do you worry at all about these coordinators leaving? I mean, obviously Oregon's losing both. And Heartline leaving Ohio State, I think, is a little easier to understand with day calling plays.
Joel Klatt
Yeah, I'm less concerned with Ohio State because Superpower is calling place, you know, and he probably was, was more involved than we even know, you know, this year as, as Brian was right place. In fact, I know, I know he.
Todd McShay
Was.
Joel Klatt
The Oregon one is much more difficult because Will and Tosh were empowered to run the entire unit.
Mitch McDonough
Right.
Joel Klatt
And so losing those guys is, is, I don't think this week it's going to hurt them, not just because of their opponent with JMU going up there, but because they've got a break and the portal is. Is a ways away. My fear for Oregon would be, you know, once they get to that second round and maybe beyond, when those coaches are trying to navigate an open transfer portal and prepare for a playoff game, that's when it becomes problematic just because of time. You just don't have enough time to do both. Hire staff, do all the things that you need to do at your future job. You know, maybe he would cut Tosh not loose, but, like, you know, let him have some rope because Dan can handle defense. But then what happens on the offensive side? Right. So the harder one is. Is Will. And. And what would happen on the offensive side?
Todd McShay
It's going to be a fun run. And yes, we're going to miss you calling a playoff game. We need to get that.
Joel Klatt
I would love that. That would be. That would be awesome.
Todd McShay
Well, something tells me we'll. We'll find a way at some point, but someday we. We appreciate you coming on with us. It's been a. It's been a fun season. It always is.
Joel Klatt
Yeah.
Todd McShay
But this one feels like we're. We're actually amping up for a wild ride in the playoff and. And it's. It's great to break it down with you. So.
Joel Klatt
Merry Christmas. Have you guys given your. Your pick yet for like, have you done a bracket or. I don't want to make you do that. Yeah, you have. Yeah. So I. I would be super fascinated. Who do you like in the. In the entire thing?
Todd McShay
There you go.
Joel Klatt
Mentioned you took Oregon just.
Mitch McDonough
I did. Yeah.
Joel Klatt
Because of the longer odds or you.
Mitch McDonough
Just for some of the same reasons that you're.
Todd McShay
No odds. Had to pick the bracket straight up.
Joel Klatt
And Todd who.
Todd McShay
I said Georgia.
Joel Klatt
I don't hate that either, man. They. Dude, that Bama. I don't know if Bama was just distracted or what, but that wasn't close.
Todd McShay
I've seen them defensively get incrementally better each and every week. And Gunner Stockton. I don't want to say he doesn't. He surprised me early in the season, but just the stability there. Yeah, I. I wonder about Ohio State. Ohio State's the most talented and certainly can do it.
Joel Klatt
I worry about their office. I worry about their offensive line a little bit and that. That reared its head in the short yardage and the red zone. But what makes me nervous for everyone else is that now Ryan got to go and fix that and it's kind of like losing to Michigan before last.
Todd McShay
Year, it's like, well, I completely.
Joel Klatt
What are they going to come out with now? Because if that was their only weakness and then I. I would, I'm still. I would take Ohio State guys because I just think that defense, that defense, it's the best defense I've covered. I didn't get to cover in person the like the 21 Georgia defense or the 11 Bama defense. So in person it's the best defense that I've. That I've covered in the smartest defense that I've covered.
Todd McShay
It is wild, man, to think it. You lose eight starters from a year ago, you bring a new coordinator. So it's not like a lot of these guys have. Were growing up in this system. And to see from the jump against Texas, like how quickly these new faces as starters, eight of them were like all in one unison. Like, you know, like, I don't know. It's. It's been special to watch the entire year and they have not let down.
Joel Klatt
They. They won a national championship with the eventual first pick in the draft on the bench in Arvell Reese. Like, that's wild.
Todd McShay
It doesn't make sense.
Mitch McDonough
There's no other way.
Todd McShay
I don't know if he'll be the.
Joel Klatt
First pick, but I would say he's the first non quarterback taken. You know, the quarterback is always a need thing like that dude is unreal on film. Unreal.
Todd McShay
Different planet. Yeah, totally different. And by the way, the second or third best non quarterback prospect might be the safety behind him. Yeah.
Mitch McDonough
Whoever just kind of like hasn't talked about much this year.
Todd McShay
Yeah. That's unbelievable.
Joel Klatt
That's right. And oh, by the way, the 15th pick in the draft is the nose tackle, so.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
Yeah. Have. Have fun. Yeah.
Todd McShay
All right.
Mitch McDonough
That second round, by the way, with the seating fix, with them fixing the seating, the second round is going to be awesome.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
Should I hope so? I hope so.
Todd McShay
All right, brother. Merry Christmas to you.
Joel Klatt
Merry Christmas to you guys.
Todd McShay
I saved my pleasantries for the end.
Mitch McDonough
Yeah. You weren't gonna say it.
Joel Klatt
Well done. Great to see you boys.
Todd McShay
See you soon. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + and present in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-ATE HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York. And Doug Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds of with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.
Mitch McDonough
Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
Todd McShay
Cut the camera.
Joel Klatt
They see us.
Todd McShay
Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Fairy Underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company Affiliates Excludes Massachusetts.
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Host: Todd McShay (with Mitch McDonough)
Special Guest: Joel Klatt
Air Date: December 18, 2025
Episode Theme: In-depth preview of the College Football Playoff (CFP), key NFL Draft prospect decisions, and analysis of potential early declarations—especially from top QBs like Dante Moore (Oregon) and Ty Simpson (Alabama).
This episode dives deep into the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, with Todd McShay and Mitch McDonough breaking down the playoff matchups, closely examining the latest NFL Draft buzz, player declarations, and potential returns, and discussing the pivotal decisions facing major QB prospects. Joel Klatt joins to provide sharp analysis on the College Football Playoff field, the state of top teams, and what fans should expect from the biggest games of the postseason.
(Starts ~03:30)
(20:10–40:26)
(Starting 42:39, more depth from 56:22 with Joel Klatt)
All lines and teams as of episode taping.
(55:18–1:25:44)
Main Points:
Questions from McDonough:
The show is a fast-paced, deeply analytical, banter-filled blend of draft intelligence, playoff speculation, and high-level CFB conversation. Todd McShay and Mitch McDonough bring humor and candor, while Joel Klatt serves up sharp, experienced insight with measured takes and the occasional spicy proclamation.
If you are prepping for the playoff or closely following the draft, this episode delivers insight you won’t get anywhere else.