The McShay Show – College Football Playoff Preview With Joel Klatt

Host: Todd McShay (with Mitch McDonough)
Special Guest: Joel Klatt
Air Date: December 18, 2025
Episode Theme: In-depth preview of the College Football Playoff (CFP), key NFL Draft prospect decisions, and analysis of potential early declarations—especially from top QBs like Dante Moore (Oregon) and Ty Simpson (Alabama).

Overview

This episode dives deep into the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, with Todd McShay and Mitch McDonough breaking down the playoff matchups, closely examining the latest NFL Draft buzz, player declarations, and potential returns, and discussing the pivotal decisions facing major QB prospects. Joel Klatt joins to provide sharp analysis on the College Football Playoff field, the state of top teams, and what fans should expect from the biggest games of the postseason.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL Draft Declarations and Buzz

(Starts ~03:30)

Growing List of Underclassmen

• McShay notes an unusual uptick in early declarations compared to recent years, possibly signaling a return to the 90–100 range seen before NIL and the transfer portal's new prominence.
• With NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals and transfer options, many players now have incentives to stay, but 2025's list of underclassmen going pro is "growing fast."
• Notable prospects mentioned:
  • RBs: Jeremiah Lovett (ND), LJ Martin (BYU), Emmett Johnson (Nebraska)
  • WRs: Jordan Tyson (ASU), Antonio Williams (Clemson), Jacoby Lane (USC)
  • OTs: Caleb Lomu (Utah)
  • Edges/IDL: Keldrick Falk (Auburn), TJ Parker/Peter Woods (Clemson), Caleb Banks (Florida)
  • LB/DBs: Anthony Hill Jr. (Texas), several corners/safeties from Clemson, South Carolina, Texas

On the NFL Advisory Committee

• McShay explains how underclassmen submit to the Advisory Committee for a grade (first round, second round, or return to school), which informs their decisions.
• "There are about 210 first-round draft picks if you ask all the agents each year," McShay quips (16:45).

Seniors Staying or Returning

• A few notable players are choosing to return to school, especially thanks to lucrative NIL offers (Bear Alexander at Oregon is highlighted).

QB Landscape and the Uncertainty Factor

• Many top underclassmen QBs remain undecided, with decisions to be made after the playoff, creating a "fluid" and tense environment.
• McDonough: “There’s urgency in this, man. Let’s just get to it.” (20:10)
• Persisting question: will Dante Moore and Ty Simpson declare or return?

2. Decisions Looming for Dante Moore & Ty Simpson

(20:10–40:26)

Market Context

• Next year’s draft class at QB is "sensational," whereas this year’s draft field is unexpectedly thin after transfer portal attrition and surprise returns.
• "It’s shaping up to be potentially one of the greatest quarterback classes in NFL draft history...” – Todd McShay (20:28)

McShay on Evaluation and Career Trajectory

• “History has shown us the failure rate for guys who have 17 starts, somewhere in that range, under 20 starts is significant enough to make a mature young man... say, ‘Maybe I go back to school.’” (28:00)
• On Dante Moore: “He’s mature truly beyond his years… but his offensive coordinator leaves… and there’s so much change… It’s not about money or fear of the SEC. It’s about: why am I going to take a risk if Oregon’s in flux?” (29:34)
• On Ty Simpson: “He’ll be 24 by the time he’s draft-eligible. And now… what am I even coming back to at Alabama? Is the coaching staff stable? … Very interesting dynamics.” (33:21)

Final Word of Advice

• “My advice: go back to school. Wherever that is, go back for another year… The odds of you having that unbelievably successful career… increases if you go back.” – McShay (35:48)
• McDonough agrees: “I don’t even think it’s an opinion. The proof is in the pudding.” (36:47)

3. College Football Playoff First Round Preview

(Starting 42:39, more depth from 56:22 with Joel Klatt)

CFP Game Picks (McShay & McDonough)

All lines and teams as of episode taping.

• Alabama (8-seed) at Oklahoma (1-seed): Line Oklahoma -1.5
  • Both pick Oklahoma
  • “It’s tough to beat a great team twice… that program [Alabama], I don’t know what’s going on there…” – McDonough (44:19)
• Texas A&M (7) vs Miami (10): Line A&M -3.5, in Arlington
  • Both pick Miami
  • “I like Miami to win… Even the money line,” – McDonough (47:20)
  • “I think Miami could win two games in a row in this playoff…” – McShay (48:01)
• Ole Miss (6) vs Tulane (11): Line -17.5 Ole Miss
  • Both pick Ole Miss to cover
  • “I think Ole Miss comes out and just blows the doors off Tulane to prove a point” – McDonough (50:08)
• Oregon (5 seed) vs JMU (12): Line Oregon -21.5
  • McDonough picks Oregon to cover; McShay picks JMU to cover for his FanDuel pick of the week

Special Guest Analysis: Joel Klatt Joins the Show

(55:18–1:25:44)

1. Oklahoma–Alabama First Round Deep Dive

Main Points:

• Alabama is facing external distractions: QB uncertainty, coaching rumors (DeBoer/Michigan), and declining form.
• “The quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted… If their attention isn’t fully on that regiment and that structure, then you’re not preparing your best.”
  – Joel Klatt (58:12)
• Ty Simpson's stats in his last four games are massively concerning.
• Oklahoma, led by John Matier, has adjusted to a new identity after Matier's thumb injury: elite defense, special teams, and winning close, low-scoring games.
  • “Oklahoma right now is a version of Iowa.” – Klatt (63:19)
• Home environments in the first round provide a massive edge: “Last year it was enormous… Double-digit wins by all the home teams…”

2. Playoff Field Macro Analysis: Best-Offensing & Defensing Teams

Questions from McDonough:

• 2-minute drill scenario: “What offense do you want?”
  • Klatt: “Don’t you have to take Ryan Day calling plays, and Jeremiah Smith on the outside? I think you do... For a proven commodity, I would take Indiana.” (68:53)
• Best defense with the game on the line?
  • “Ohio State. Not even close.” (69:52)

3. State of the Playoff and College Football Cycles

• “In the last two years, it has swung back… The two best teams [Indiana, Ohio State] were the slowest tempos of anybody in the sport.” – Klatt (73:19)
• Focus has returned to elite defense, ball control, situational football, and experience at quarterback (74:08).

4. Concerns about Coordinator/Staff Turnover Impacting Playoff Teams

• Oregon’s loss of both coordinators is more concerning than Ohio State’s loss of Brian Hartline (since Day calls plays personally).
  • “Losing those guys is, I don’t think this week it’s going to hurt them… but later could be problematic.” (81:10)

5. Who’s Most Dangerous Outside the Top Three?

• FanDuel odds: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia are favorites. If choosing outside that group:
  • “Oregon. Watch out for Oregon… There’s something about this team. They’ve been the best rushing team on film… and it’s allowed Dante Moore to be a better player.” – Klatt (78:54)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the “fluid” QB Decision Landscape:
  • “This is a great time of year and a terrible time of year—overwhelming with all the information you’re getting.” – McDonough (11:44)
• On the 2025 Draft Pool:
  • “The supply in a year we thought was going to be really good turns out kind of sucks.” – McShay (38:19)
• On pressure for QBs to go pro/return:
  • “My advice: go back to school… The odds of you having that unbelievably successful career... increases.” – McShay (35:48)
• On Compartmentalizing in Football:
  • “I think that players and football in general does a great job of compartmentalizing your entire life, really… But the quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted.” – Klatt (58:24)
• On playoff experience at QB:
  • “Eight of the top 12 defenses in the country are represented in this College Football Playoff… You gotta have an experienced quarterback to operate this whole thing.” – McShay (71:39, 74:08)
• On Oregon:
  • “Oregon… been the best rushing team on film in the country… There’s something about this team.” – Klatt (78:56)
• Klatt on defensive talent:
  • “The last time we saw four first-round draft picks right down the middle was Miami [early 2000s]. Ohio State has it.” (70:09)

Timestamps – Key Segments

• Draft Declarations & Prospect Buzz: 03:30–19:30
• QB Decisions (Moore, Simpson): 20:10–40:26
• Playoff Game Picks: 42:39–52:43
• SPECIAL GUEST Joel Klatt joins: 55:18–1:25:44
  • OU-Alabama Breakdown: 56:22–65:29
  • Playoff Macro Field & Coach Departures: 66:30–82:10
  • Darkhorse Team To Watch: 78:54+
  • Roundtable Playoff Predictions: 82:19+

Episode Tone and Style

The show is a fast-paced, deeply analytical, banter-filled blend of draft intelligence, playoff speculation, and high-level CFB conversation. Todd McShay and Mitch McDonough bring humor and candor, while Joel Klatt serves up sharp, experienced insight with measured takes and the occasional spicy proclamation.

Takeaways for Non-Listeners

• The episode is essential for fans tracking both the College Football Playoff and NFL Draft, especially those curious about undecided QBs, team outlooks amidst coaching turmoil, and how underclassman decisions can shape the draft.
• The top storylines are quarterback uncertainty (especially Moore and Simpson), the evolving draft landscape, home-field advantages in the new playoff format, and how coaching staff transitions may upend title runs.
• Throughout, the discussion remains focused on actionable, forward-looking analysis designed for football junkies—full of inside info, perceivable trends, and a few hot takes.

If you are prepping for the playoff or closely following the draft, this episode delivers insight you won’t get anywhere else.