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CFP Picks: Indiana-Notre Dame, SMU-Penn State, Clemson-Texas, and Tennessee-Ohio State. Plus, Florida HC Billy Napier | The McShay Show
01:33:41
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- [00:00]
Todd McShay
It's the McShay show presented by FanDuel. It's time for the first 12 team playoff and you can bet on all of the action with FanDuel. Just think about all the opportunities we're going to have to bet on the College Football Playoff. We're talking about different conferences, home games for certain teams, the three or four week run that you're going to have to play. There's so much to earn if you're betting with FanDuel this College Football Playoff season. Why we love FanDuel there's so many markets like spreads over unders, national championship futures and so much more. This app is safe, secure and easy to use. When you win, you'll get paid instantly. Visit FanDuel.com McShay to download America's number one sportsbook. The Ringer is committed to responsible gambling. Visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and help lines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 and older and present in select states. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this message.
- [01:09]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Is a paid partnership with Apple Card. If you want to take control of your finances, Apple Card is where it starts. A credit card that can give you up to 3% daily cash back on every purchase. I have one. I can tell you this is true. I know and love Apple Card. So many places I can use it, especially during a busy time here with football, basketball, the holidays all at once. I can use my Apple Card on tickets to a game, a gift from my dad, or even tickets as a gift for my dad. Apply for an Apple Card today. It's easy. Just go to the wallet app on your iPhone. Again. That easy? Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch terms and more at applecard.com.
- [01:50]
Todd McShay
I'm a goal guy, Mensch.
- [01:52]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Don't I know it.
- [01:53]
Todd McShay
Listen, everyone in this business is going to have a College football playoff preview, right? We know that. But here's my goal today. I want to strike the perfect balance between having the most comprehensive breakdown we can have, but also the most efficient preview that you can find. I haven't even told you this yet, men, but we're going on the clock. 10 minutes per game. No messing around. And when we're done with each game, we're going to take a chunk out of FanDuel. Think you can handle it, men?
- [02:22]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I'll do my best.
- [02:24]
Todd McShay
I love your enthusiasm. Oh, and by the way, we've got Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier joining the show. You talk about a unique perspective he brings. His Gators faced off against three of the 12 College Football Playoff teams. The clock is ticking, Stevie boy. Tick, tick, tick. Play that beautiful beat. Here we go. All right, so here's how this thing's gonna go. Mention have kind of tasked each other with. With the opportunity, if you will, to take the most important thing that each team has to do. He's going to take one side, I'm going to take the other. In order to win this round, one matchup. Okay. In doing so, we decided to make sure we took opposite sides of the ball. So if I'm saying this is what let's say Texas has to do, you're going to say what Clemson has to do. But we're going to focus on opposite sides of the ball in doing this. We kind of put it all together, right? A season full of notes. Tape study this week. Like, we're not taking this lightly. I promise you. Tape study this week. Analytics that we're pulling in to help kind of support both of our sides. And then once we're done with that, we're each going to provide, let's call it key players. I hate one X factor for each game. One, you know, one player who's got. To me it's. If this player's doing his job and having a big game, it's pretty likely that, that the team that we're talking about is going to wind up winning the football game. And then the third part of it is, and I'm not joking here, I've done some research, Mensch. I want to absolutely boost the hell out of your fanduel accounts out there. So listen in as we go. We're going to break it down football wise. A lot of film study going to give you some key players that you got to watch that we've enjoyed on tape that we think are going to play critical roles. And then we're going to do this. We're going to. We're going to break the bank. All right, no more time to waste. Here we go. First game, men.
- [04:35]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Let's go.
- [04:36]
Todd McShay
Friday night, right? 8pm Indiana, Notre Dame. You're looking at the brackets there if you're watching on YouTube. Indiana, Notre Dame. Indiana, the ten seed. Notre Dame, the seven seed play playing in South Bend. Touchdown. Jesus. It's going to be an awesome scene. I mean, all four of these games. Weather probably going to be a factor, but don't. I don't think it's going to Affect either team more than the other. I mean, my goodness, they're from the same state. Of course it's not. Why don't you start it out? I'm taking Notre Dame in this game. You're going to take Indiana. Tell me how Indiana pulls off this upset and I should point this out. Notre Dame favored by seven and a half. I checked Fanduel this afternoon. Checked on my app. Favored by 7 1/2 points in this game. How does Indiana pull off the upset? And I'm starting the clock right now. I'm not messing around, bud. Ten minutes. I won't put it on. Yeah, maybe I will put on the noise.
- [05:28]
Billy Napier
All right.
- [05:28]
Todd McShay
Ready? Go.
- [05:29]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Okay. No one gives up fewer rushing yards per game than Indiana in the country. And you got to stop the wrong game if you're going to stop Notre Dame's offense. And if you're going to look at how you're going to stop really that Notre Dame offense, I think you want to go back and you want to look at that Northern Illinois tape because quarterback Riley Leonard from Notre Dame had a season low 16 rushing yards. I think it was their second rushing lowest rushing total as a, as a team. And some of it's obvious, some of it's just coach stuff, right? Guys were in gaps, everyone was playing gap sound. People were getting off blocks late. They were staying on the same level. They were making it really difficult for running back Jeremiah Love to get a clean look of where he should go. One of the things I really liked that I think Indiana can also do in this game is they brought strong side pressure that made it difficult. It made that. It made them set the edge even better than they already had been. It made it difficult for Notre Dame to get outside and get anything going on the perimeter. The other thing I'll say about this is I think Indiana's zone defenses could give Notre Dame problems. Why? One, I think Riley Leonard is better against man that he is against zone. I think he, he's not as effective when he has to to go against zone looks. I also think that when you're playing zone, you're not turning your back. Riley Leonard has been a really effective scrambler down the second half of the season. You're in a better position to, to shut that down on the back seven. And also I think it puts you in a better position to rally to quick hitters if they tackle well in space. I mean, this is a very good Indiana front. You look at this and there's three. They had three, all Big Ten defenders. You know, One at each level. I love CJ west up front. He wasn't even one of those guys, really. C.J. west Defensive yeah, he wasn't. It was m. Was.
- [07:07]
Todd McShay
Yep.
- [07:07]
Mel Kiper Jr.
The corner pawns. And then Aiden Fisher, the linebacker, who I think is another player to keep an eye on.
- [07:12]
Todd McShay
Okay.
- [07:12]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Because he's so instinctive, he's so rangy, he's so tough. But again, CJ west up front is going to be a problem for that interior offensive line. Look, it's going to come down to whether or not Notre Dame could run the ball, and that's been a strength for Indiana's defense. So that's a. It's a strength on strength matchup to me.
- [07:29]
Todd McShay
If they stop it, can they win is I guess, is the big question. And maybe it's not the Indiana game, maybe it's as we get deeper into the playoff, but I think that's the big question that, that a lot of people have, that have studied this Notre Dame team. Right.
- [07:40]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah. Can you tell that you've sped me up here, that I'm like trying to get all this out right now?
- [07:44]
Todd McShay
Yeah. I would try to rattle it off. 2m. 2 minutes and 5 seconds. I'm not trying to make it where you can't breathe. I'm just trying to make sure that we provide, provide those that are tuning in some efficiency here because I. It's all on me. I'm not a talker. Right. I'm not. I'm not a talker. But then like 55 minutes later, I'm on the same subject.
- [08:05]
Mel Kiper Jr.
So really quick, those own looks that I want to make up this point too. It forces Riley Leonard to be patient. If he forces the ball downfield, he's going to put it in harm's way. He's got to be patient and consistent. And I think that, that sometimes he struggles with that. He can make big plays. I think he's developed as a passer. But if you're going to make him dink and dunk down the field, he's more likely to make a mistake or for a drive to stall.
- [08:29]
Todd McShay
You think, you think if they force. Yeah, I, I've seen the patience at times and, and I think they're comfortable. You. They love throwing the. To the tight ends. They look. They like getting the backs involved. Like he, he, he. He's become better at taking the easier stuff, I think.
- [08:48]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I agree, I agree. But he's still, it's still an issue in terms of he will force that throw every once in a while, especially if this game is Tight, he'll get frustrated. I mean, he did at least in the Northern Illinois game where he got frustrated and tried to push the ball downfield.
- [09:02]
Todd McShay
All right. Other side of the ball. And I don't think if you've, if you've tuned into this show, if you've been, you know, one of our friends of the show here and have hung out for a while, you've probably heard me say it a couple times because I think it was just so obvious. Yeah, it's not always so obvious, just even watching on, like the game broadcast. But for Notre Dame, I think the number one thing, if they're going to win this football game and take care of business as a more than a touch, slightly more than a touchdown favorite, they've got to sell out and getting pressure on, on Curtis Rourke, the quarterback for Indiana. Rush 5, minimum obvious passing downs. Rush 5. And the reason I say that Ohio State and Michigan, okay, those were Indiana's two worst outings offensively. Right? And, and it's not surprise with an immobile quarterback in Rourke that they were also IU's worst pass protection days. Okay. I mean, we, I remember coming on live after that Indiana, Ohio State game earlier in the season. It was the first thing I said, like, that first drive was a thing of beauty. I was like, oh, we got a game on our hands. Like, we're all right. They can, they can block their front four. I, I, I'm telling you, I like those receivers. They got four receivers. Indiana does they, they could. If they could block the front four, these four receivers are going to be a problem. They were in the first drive. They drive down seven, nothing. They kind of hung around and fought for the first quarter. But after that first offensive drive, Ohio State was like, beat, beat our corners. And you did on the first drive. But, but we're going to make you get the ball out quickly to do it, right? And so here's what I looked up. Nearly half the time that Ohio State and Michigan, it wasn't just, it was, remember, it was Ohio State did a brilliant job after the first drive, but it had been done to a slightly lesser effect, but still effective. It had been done by Michigan. So nearly half the time, it was like 48 of the time that Ohio State and Michigan blitzed, meaning bringing five, not like zone blitz where you're dropping one, bringing one. I'm talking about pressures of, of more than four, four pass rushers. Okay. Nearly half the time they sent pressure, they sent a, a blitzer mensch. They got pressure on Rourke. That's Remarkable. That is not like if you're, if you're Indiana's offensive line, that's a nightmare. Compare that to the other 10 games Indiana played versus the blitz. I'm talking about the blitz. 20, right around 25. So cut that number in half. So it, it was, I mean, it was twice the, twice more effective in those, in those 10 games. But they did it with more consistency. Michigan did. They did it with more consistency. Ohio State did. And by the way, we talked about the X's and O's and Jimmy's and Joe's, they just, they just better, better Jimmies and Joes.
- [12:04]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
- [12:05]
Todd McShay
So if you're Notre Dame. Yeah, I look at this Notre Dame defense has relied heavily on its defensive line. It's front, forward to get pressures. And they haven't been great at it. More pressures than they have, obviously more pressures than sacks. But like the percentages are higher in terms of pressures than they have sacks. But this has not been a great pass rush defense, you know, per se. It really hasn't been. And you look at that defensive line, it's generated pressure on its own. But of the team's 30 sacks, 24 and a half have come from the defensive line. So what does that tell me? And I'm not saying that the linebackers have to get home and be the ones that are, you know, accumulating the sacks and the pressures, but I am saying that these linebackers are going to have to get more involved and be effective in terms of when they're turned loose. And then maybe the occasional cat blitz, the corner coming off the edge, safety getting involved, whatever it is. The, the back seven is going to have to be more involved, I think, in this game because you just, you can't back off of Rourke and let him do what he does best. You tell me, what is, what does Indiana do best? Indiana likes to run the ball, create balance and get Rourke a clean pocket. And they'll, they'll, they'll hit on some quick stuff. Their receivers are like just fearless over the middle, make tough catches, but all of a sudden they'll balance, balance, short game, intermediate game, but then they'll pop you for one. Right? So in this game, and it's also worth noting, excuse me, I'm still battling this cold. It's driving me nuts. Howard Cross, the defensive lineman for, for Notre Dame, is back. And again, it's got to be more than just the front four, but the front four is, is going to play a critical part in this. He had the high ankle sprain Missed the last three games. He, he's still second on the team men with, with what was it, four, four and a half or four sacks in just nine games played. All right, so, so getting him back, you would think if he, if he's close to 100% is going to be a big boost for this Notre Dame line. It's also worth, worth mentioning this. And I went back and watched these tapes. Notre Dame secondary, which is highly touted, right? And, and obviously Benjamin Morrison, I'll get to that in a second. Benjamin Morrison, the injury potential may not be a first rounder now because of the injury, but, but at least a second round draft pick, very high, highly regarded in the NFL. The secondary in, in against Notre Dame showed vulnerability. I thought Jaden Maeva, I think it is 360 passing yards, three touchdowns in that game. I, I saw some, some vulnerability there, right? Also allowed 264 pass yards and three touchdowns to get to Louisville. Why is that important? Why are those two games important? Because if you look at it, bud, those were the best two pass offenses that they faced. Think about it, right? Their biggest wins were versus run heavy offenses, right? A and M A M. Like yes, it was before they, they made the quarterback shift and it wasn't as run heavy, but it still was like Wigman wasn't effective in that game. And they ran the ball 38 times compared to 30 pass attempts in a game that they were trailing. You know, and, and then Georgia Tech, I mean that's all they do, run the football. Navy, army, you know what I mean?
- [15:35]
Billy Napier
Yeah.
- [15:36]
Todd McShay
So.
- [15:36]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right with you.
- [15:37]
Todd McShay
So the one thing that can kill you if you're Notre Dame and the one area that you're like, we've got some vulnerability is if we don't get to the quarterback, we might not be that great in the back end. Maybe we're not as good as everyone wants to say that we are. Right? So, and I, I do think it's worth mentioning like the true freshman, Leonard Moore. He's been really good, stepped, stepped up for with Benjamin Morrison ever since he went down. He's been better though. Like, I know he's, he's confident, he's aggressive, he's physical, he's good in coverage. He's like, he's good and he'll only get better with more experience. He's better versus the run though. And I think that secondary, like I said there, there's vulnerability there. So if you're Notre Dame, my big thing for Notre Dame in this game, you got to get to Rourke Take, take him out of his comfort zone, move him off his spot, take away that option in the passing game and then all of a sudden I, I think Notre Dame should, should be able to just grind it away on the offensive side with, with really the three headed monster, including Riley Leonard at the, in terms of the, the carries that are spread out in their run game. All right, Feature players, guys that if, if they're a player or more that like are critical to their team winning in this game. In your opinion based off of all the work you've done.
- [16:57]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I'll take the all Big Ten linebacker Aiden Fisher, who's great in coverage, who can rush the passer and it's going to have to be outstanding against the run. I'm taking a guy from Indiana's defense because you know that's that, that's the, the side I was taking of what they need to win. I think Aiden Fisher is a player to watch. I love CJ west up front. I think he's going to be really good too. But I think Aiden Fishing, Aiden Fisher, the number four, the linebacker, is a guy to keep an eye on. If he has a monster game, they have a chance.
- [17:22]
Todd McShay
I'm going to go with the Indiana receivers. Okay, you, you've got to get the ball to them and we've got to find, I mean even if it's getting the ball out. Two and a half seconds, two, you know, close to two seconds. However it is. Elijah shot Omar Cooper Jr. Who's a sophomore. The rest of these guys are seniors. They're veteran. Like this is it, right? Elijah Surat, big receiver. Omar Cooper Jr. Is a sophomore. Miles Price and Keshon Keyshawn Williams, they've combined for 20, 20 over 2200. Almost 2300 receiving yards this year, 143 receptions, 21 touchdowns. Surat and Cooper are the two to watch in terms of big plays because I think Indiana is going to need big plays in this game to keep up. They're averaging 19 yards per catch combined. So though to me, if the Indiana receivers are having a day, that means it's going to be a long, a long game. This is going to be absolutely a four quarter fight for Notre Dame. All right, prediction men, what do you got?
- [18:21]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I got Notre Dame. I think they cover and I think the reason is, is that their offensive lines had the same starting five since the Navy game. I think it's really, it settled that offensive line down, it steadied it. And I really like some of the players on the Indiana front. I just don't think they're very deep and there are some guys on the inside. Like James Carpenter is a very disruptive run defender. He's a really good interior pass rusher, but he's light. And I think they're gonna have some, some success moving those guys around. And I think that Notre Dame is going to run the ball well enough to ultimately control this game.
- [18:53]
Todd McShay
All right, there you see the numbers for FanDuel if you're watching along on, on YouTube. Seven and a half is. Is the spread like we said, minus 280 to. To. To win outright and over unders at 51 and a half. Notre Dame wins this game. But I'm going with the Indiana cover. I think it's a four quarter battle. I actually think this will be the best of the four College Football Playoff Round 1 games and it'll kick the thing off beautifully on night one. I also like the under 50 one and a half more than I actually probably like the COVID for Indiana. Frozen conditions. Indiana struggles to protect. Notre Dame struggles to throw the ball. I think this is gonna be a short game. I think like normally these games are grinding out like right around four hours, especially with the playoff and the commercials and all that. I think this is gonna be like a three and a half hour game. I think, I think Leonard Jeremiah Love is a dude. Jadarian Price, I mean, those guys have averaged almost 7 yards per carry together and have racked up 36 rushing touchdowns. So I like, I like to keep it on. No one wants to bet the under. Right. Well, that's where fandom's too short. Yeah, yeah, like, yeah, life's too short. But the over Iceman, Iceman, Elio and Bernoni, our good friend from Richmond, you know, overs, overs, overs the hockey. I get it. But I like the under in that game. All right, second game on the site, noon kickoff Saturday. We get what an unbelievable weekend this is. You get Friday night game, you go to bed around 1am after you've kind of cooled down and relaxed, you wake up the next morning, you got a little game day to get warmed up. Then right away, noon kick SMU at Penn State. I assume it's going to be a white out, right? Penn State's -6 and a half in this. And by the way, I blew through the 10, 10 minutes in the first one. That was all my fault.
- [20:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, we're gonna get the, we gotta get the Oscar music for you. We're gonna have to play you off.
- [20:49]
Todd McShay
Yeah, like Jimmy Valvano and he's like this Guy in the back, this guy. He thinks I care about some red light, this guy.
- [20:57]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I'm taking my time this round, I'll tell you that.
- [20:58]
Todd McShay
All right, I'm starting the clock again. We'll see if we can beat it here. SMU at Penn State minus six and a half noon, kickoff on Saturday. What do you got? Who? I'm covering smu. So you've got Penn State. In order to take care of business and move on to round two like most people expect they will, what does Penn State have to do?
- [21:18]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Don't overthink it, man. I don't want them to look at SMU and be like, SMU has been vulnerable to the pass, but really strong against the run. Your strength if you're Penn State is that running game. Run the ball, you're off.
- [21:30]
Todd McShay
Play to your strengths.
- [21:31]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Play to your strengths and don't, don't worry about, don't try to adjust your game plan to attack their weakness. I think you need to prove that you're the, you know, you're the big dog. You're the alpha on the block. That's what they should be doing. I want K John Allen to get 20 plus carries. I want them to run downhill. I, I love, like, one of the issues you have with SMU is they have underside too. Well, Singleton, you're going to mix in. Listen, you're going to get mixed in. Singleton, you're going to mix in Warren. The reason I like Allen, he's byob, baby. He's bringing his own block. He's so physical. You want to tackle him on his 20th carry when it's cold and it's windy.
- [22:06]
Todd McShay
It's.
- [22:07]
Mel Kiper Jr.
For those kids coming out of Texas. It's going to be, going to be interesting. Those kids have been really tough and played really hard all year, but that, that's a big back running downhill at you. I love that scheme and how much conflict it's going to put those linebackers in. You have guys, multiple guys. You can have four guys in the same backfield who could carry the ball at times. You have Drew Aller, the quarterback, to keep it. You'll have Ty Warren in there. You'll have Singleton and Allen in the same back.
- [22:32]
Todd McShay
You won't have Bo Perula for, for the short yardage, but no, you won't.
- [22:35]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I would love that in the red zone. It would have been nice. That would have been a nice addition. But I'll say this, when you put linebackers in conflict, they're a little slower to react. You have smaller linebackers for Them. I went back and I watched the Boston College tape because they had some. They had some troubles with the Boston College running game. And when Boston College. Yes, SMU did. Sorry. And what Boston College did really well was pull offensive lineman and get up to the second level. And they also did great job with their inside zone, which kind of creates natural combo blocks and double teams to get up to the second level. I think Penn State can do the same. Don't overthink this. Feed those running backs. Don't try to turn Drew Aller. You know, don't give him 30 passing attempts in this game. Run, run, run.
- [23:17]
Todd McShay
All right.
- [23:18]
Billy Napier
Yeah.
- [23:18]
Todd McShay
And then play action to Tyler Warren. But I. I think Tyler Warren's gonna be kept a little bit in shape. It's interesting you say that because SMU has been pretty good against the run, you know, so. But trust. Trust what we've got.
- [23:33]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right?
- [23:33]
Todd McShay
Throw whatever you got at us. We're Penn State. Like, you're coming to our home.
- [23:36]
Mel Kiper Jr.
You haven't. You haven't seen what we can do yet. And I also. I'm very.
- [23:39]
Todd McShay
That's cute. You're good. You're good. Versus the run in the acc. That's cute.
- [23:43]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I have more respect for SMU than that, but.
- [23:46]
Todd McShay
Yeah, no, no, I'm. I'm saying I'm. You're talking about a mindset. You're talking about a mentality going into this game.
- [23:51]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yes.
- [23:52]
Todd McShay
And so the mentality is. That's cute. Like your. Your. Your run defense numbers are cute. Like, that's. But come on. Come on into Happy Valley. It's freezing cold. And. And we're going to play a different brand of football today. That's what you're saying. Yeah.
- [24:06]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Our offensive line, I think, is playing the best that it's played all year. Coming off that Oregon game, they should have a lot of confidence about their ability to move. Move, guys.
- [24:14]
Todd McShay
All right, I'm going to go the other side. Ball. What. What does SMU have to do? How can they pull off this upset? I already mentioned six and a half point dogs. SM&I. I studied this, man. It was kind of like, all right, what. What can you do? Because this is a challenge. Obviously, you're outmanned physically. They're bigger, they're stronger. You've had success running the football, but what can we go in and do and kind of shock them with? Because that's. What if you're going to pull off an upset. Yeah, you got to get turnovers, special teams, all those things. But what can we do to kind of shock the system a little bit. SMU is, has got a chance to win this game if Kevin Jennings can strike on early downs. That's my theory. Why do I say that? Let me explain. All right, first off, SMU is an inside zone running team. Okay. And you know how much I love Rashard Smith. I think, you know, we talked about the Tyrone Tracy late round guy who could be effective in the NFL, former wide receiver at running back, speed, explosiveness, all that. But they're an inside zone running team and they're like, they're back. They're, they're undersized compared to the defensive front. This is not a big physical offensive front. Their back, Brashard Smith, who I love, is undersized, right? And, and I, I think underappreciated, but he's undersized. He's a dynamo, but he's not someone that you're going to line up and go run at. This defense, Penn State excels if you really study them, they actually, I think, you know, as great as their edges are, including Abdul Carter, like they have some trouble at times like breaking on the outside, the, you know, contain and those sorts of things. But inside run, like they don't, they don't give that up. So, so what do we do? The mind spinning and I was going through this today sitting on a ferry, if you will. Try to think like, where do I go with this? When you watch on tape, Penn State will early on early downs, first and second down, a lot creep a guy up. They are like, you're not running the football on us. Early downs. Now we'll get to third down. We'll get creative, we'll do different things or we'll, we'll back off our safeties. We'll give you a two high shell with the two safeties. But first and second and especially on first downs. But first and second down, there's a tendency creep a guy up so he leaves a single, single high shell, single safety back there, right? And when they do that, they're vulnerable to the past. They can be vulnerable to the past. Now obviously you have to protect, but I, even then I started going through some of the numbers, I went to, pff. Kevin Jennings has been at his best against single high safeties. And now all of a sudden I'm like, okay, and that makes sense. What quarterback isn't better against single high safeties than the two high safeties Mel Kuiper are good for and tried to ban too high safeties from, from the NFL game? We get it. It makes it more difficult to throw down the field. There's like, of course. But he's been. But not. Not only has he been better, he's been. He ranked fourth among 133 passers match. I didn't know this, but it like it backs up what you see. Wow, fourth out of 133 passers in terms of single high save. What he does against single high safeties. Now listen, you can knock pff for like the run blocking grades. We. There are conversations there, but when I use analytics, I try to make sure, like, what's the stuff they can't muck up? What's up? There's a single safety. All right, like, what are the things that I can absolutely rely on? I can rely on that. Okay. And so now we, now we know he's like not only efficient, like one of the best in the country against that. So now early in downs, first and second down, they come out and. And instead of banging our head with the inside zone against this defensive front, let's take some shots. And yes, he's better intermediate than he is vertical. Jennings is. I've seen that on tape. But they need to be aggressive on first and second downs. They're not going to see many favorable single high safety looks on third and three plus. So why, why try to throw into that where your quarterback's not as effective and the defense is very effective when you can take some shots on early downs. One thing I like about the Mustang's offensive attack is that they have spread the ball out. So it's not about force feeding it to one guy on a certain down. It's about, okay, now I'm Jennings, take the snap, work that guy, negotiate the single high safety. Your single job is first of all at the line of scrimmage, recognize what we got, coverage. Then your second job is make sure you're negotiating him, keeping an eye on him, but also making him think, all right, I'm going right now. Come back to the left. I'm going left, whatever it is.
- [28:58]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
- [28:59]
Todd McShay
So that's going to be critical in this game as well. But those receivers, I talked about it, he spread the ball out. 10 different guys have at least 10 catches this season. More impressive, seven of them have at least 20 catches. Their leading receiver has 38. So this is all about what's open, not forcing it to somebody. Okay. An addendum to all this, though. Here's the addendum.
- [29:24]
Mel Kiper Jr.
They would wrap it up.
- [29:25]
Todd McShay
Jennings can't hold on to the ball too long, can't do it like he did against.
- [29:28]
Mel Kiper Jr.
No.
- [29:29]
Todd McShay
And I got another number I read today. I don't know if it's precisely accurate, but he was about 3.3 and a half seconds. He held the ball against Clemson. We saw. What did we see? You and I both talked about it after the game that night. Drifting. Drifting and like. And then started to feel ghost.
- [29:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [29:46]
Todd McShay
But it was like drifting back. Right, Right. So he can't hold up. Earlier in the season and most other games he's been better. But against, I think it was pit that I read, like, it was a 2.5 by comparison. So that's. That's a big addendum there. So there. There's going to be balance. They. It's. I'm not saying throw the ball every first and second down. It's got to be balanced, but they've got to identify those friendly passing opportunities, single high safeties when they can take advantage, and they've got to be aggressive on first and second down or else Penn State's just going to grind them to death in this game, I think. All right, player, just say one other.
- [30:21]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Thing really, really quickly about, About Jennings. One of the notes I did take that I had about the Penn State offense, offense is do not take your foot off the gas if you get ahead, man. I don't think that ACC championship game was a fluke. I think Jennings is going to play from kick to that final whistle and he's going to give you every. I don't care weather. I don't care about that atmosphere. If, If Penn State gets comfortable, they're in trouble because that kid, I think, will play until the bitter end.
- [30:50]
Todd McShay
Yeah. I mean, it's proven he's. No, he's a dog. He's an absolute dog. The more I watch, the more I just love. I just love the way he plays. Who jumps up for you? Who's the guy that has to have.
- [31:00]
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's the Pensado line. It's the pen. If they continue to play the way they did against Oregon, to me, and again, it wasn't clean. There was breakdowns in pass pro. There was a couple missed assignments in the run game, but overall was the most encouraging performance I had seen. They were. I mean, there were some seams against a very good Oregon front. And I thought they played with attitude. I thought they played with physicality, aggressiveness. To me, that was the most encouraging performance I had seen from that group all year. And it has me excited about what they. About them potentially making a run, especially with the path they have.
- [31:33]
Todd McShay
I'm gonna Go the other side of the ball. And I just mentioned how it's not about one receiver.
- [31:37]
Mel Kiper Jr.
But.
- [31:37]
Todd McShay
But I am encouraged by what I've seen recently from an SMU receiver, and I think he. He's going to have to have a big game. That's Roderick Daniels. He's the leading receiver with 38 catches. I mentioned that. That. But not much higher than the next cat's like 34, 30, 28, you know, but he's averaging 16 yards per catch. Not huge numbers. I get it. But he's really emerged in the last six games. 27 of those 38 catches have come in the last six. 459 yards in the last six. Not a big dude. Gonna get pushed around a little, but let's find ways to get him in space, like those intermediate crossing routes in cutting routes. Get him the ball in a little bit of space, and he can create small, quick 5 9, 185 somewhere in that range. He also, like, get the ball in his hands. They've used him running back, handed the ball off to him, slot receiver and in the return game as well. I think he's got to play a huge game if SMU is gonna. And all of them do, but I think he's gonna have to be the guy amongst a handful of guys that step up in the passing game. All right, who do you like in this one? I mentioned. I already. Let's pull up the FanDuel graphic here. I mentioned six and a half is. Is the spread minus 3:15 for Penn State. Oh, whoa. It shifted. It's eight and a half now. It's eight and a half. Sorry, FanDuel. Okay.
- [33:01]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I like Penn State again. I like the. I like the. The favorite to cover. I do. I just think they're going to be too big, too physical, too much. So, yeah, I'm taking Penn State.
- [33:12]
Todd McShay
All right.
- [33:15]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I love smu, man. I just. I just think Penn State's the. The better team at home by far.
- [33:20]
Todd McShay
Of the four games, I'm gonna. I'm gonna shoot straight. This is the one I'm. I'm least dogging on.
- [33:27]
Billy Napier
We.
- [33:28]
Todd McShay
We already won money on Friday night. We already, like, just stuck a little. A little dagger. Wait till the next two games. We're gonna. We're gonna. Finishing touches. Okay. But I, I. And I do worry about all those Miami kids and Texas kids from smu. I don't know which which there are more of in Miami or. Or Texas, it feels like, but I worry about in these temperatures. But it is a noon kick, so it ain't gonna be that bad. Right? Penn State though. And this, now that's gonna be cold, man.
- [33:59]
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's gonna be cool.
- [34:00]
Todd McShay
I know it's gonna be cold, but.
- [34:02]
Mel Kiper Jr.
And windy.
- [34:04]
Todd McShay
But Penn State won by just one point against Minnesota, beat USC by three. Only be Bowling Green by a touchdown at home earlier in the year. I know it's a different vibe playing Bowling Green earlier in the year than it is, than it is in a college football playoff home game. Probably a whiteout and all the madness. But I just, I think the way I said, like you talked about it before, the way SMU is going to fight four quarters with Jennings, I think they could backdoor cover this thing and make it a little bit, you know, especially eight and a half.
- [34:33]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [34:34]
Todd McShay
All right, so there we are. All right. Number three game, Clemson at Texas. It's a 4:00 game. As you see there. We're talking about Clemson. They didn't sneak in. They won their way in, but certainly was not in a conference with. With SMU in the year it had and Miami in the year it had. We certainly did not think that Clemson was going to be one of these 12 teams, but here we are. And hats off to Clemson. This is the biggest spread in the. In round one. This is Texas minus 11 and a half, 4pm Eastern kick on Saturday. Started out mentioned. You take Clemson. How do they pull off this upset?
- [35:12]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I think offense coordinator Garrett Riley and quarterback Gay Club. They have to be near perfect. And I'll start with Riley. Like you're not going to line up and just run the ball against Texas. I mean, Phil Moffel, the running back from Clemson is averaging 2.4 yards per carry over the last four games. Yeah, their offensive line does not match up well with Texas's defensive front, especially on the interior where Mafa's at his best. So what are you going to do? You're gonna have designed quarterback runs. You're going to get your court, you're going to get your wide receivers involved. Misdirection. You're going to supplement the running game with a short passing game. He's going to have to be perfect in terms of the game plan and as a play caller, I think he'll do other things. Like he's got to buck all his tendencies. If he goes in there and runs the same play that he's been running in the same situation out of the same formations, they're going to be in pro, they're going to be in trouble. They have to buck tendencies. They gotta move the Pocket a little bit for clubnick. And then Club Nick's got to be near perfect against a team that is, you know, 10th in the country in sacks, third in the country in interceptions. I think most importantly for him is if he sees a running lane, take it. I want to see him make plays with his feet. I don't care if it's like 4 yards. Maybe he gets a 15 yarder, maybe he breaks one. He's done that before. We've seen that. He's going to have to make plays like he did early against SMU where he tucks the ball and looks like he's going to run. Oh, he finds a receiver downfield for a touchdown. He's gonna have to do those kind of the. Pull the rabbit out of his. Of the hat for him because look, I just think they are, you know, this was the hardest one for me. They are so overmatched when I look at the trenches that that's my concern. Concern. So it's going to take a heroic effort from Clubnik and it's going to take a perfect game from their play caller and game planner.
- [36:49]
Todd McShay
I don't disagree. And I mean, why not shine if you're Club Nick? I mean, this is, this is your shot. Great. By the way, he's been great even.
- [36:58]
Mel Kiper Jr.
In the SMU game. I was surprised at how much pressure that he was making plays with guys in his face. He was making plays with his feet. I was. I mean, he has won me over late in the season with how well he's played. It's just too bad that, I mean, I don't think they're talented enough up front to really compete with the, the elites in college football.
- [37:14]
Todd McShay
Right now for Texas, I'm gonna go kind of with the opposite mindset, if you will, from what you said with Penn State. Let's just do what we do best. Dare him to beat us. I think Texas is going to come out and attack. Okay. And there's a few reasons why. Now I want to preface this like this is. It's gonna seem a little like contrarian to, to what everyone might think. It's like, oh, we're bigger, we got a great offensive line. Let's. Let's run the football. Let's be balanced. Let's thinking let's just get out of Dodge, right? And. And Texas has been great at that. How many times have we watched a Texas game at the end and we were just unsatisfied, right? Like, you know, there's more out there, right?
- [37:58]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Vanderbilt jumps to mind. I think Arkansas was another game like that. Yeah, I mean those are just those games.
- [38:02]
Todd McShay
Yeah, right. I think you come out guns blazing if you're Texas and Clemson's defense. Like, listen, Clemson secondary is fun to watch. I didn't realize, I'm not studying draft prospects in that group. That's a. They get some pops, they've got some pups in that secondary, but they're, they come from like great breeding, you know, like these, they're, they're. They came ready to play. And the beauty and the fun part of watching a mensch is that Clemson trusts these guys. They play a ton of man to man coverage. It's like I've read somewhere it's like the, I don't know, the top, like 15 in the, in the nation or something. Very high percentage of man to man coverage. And they're doing that with young guy. You would think they'd mix in zone, you know, take some pressure off these young guys. They haven't, they've thrown into the wolves and they've held up. You look at Avion, Terrell, Ashton Hampton, Jaden Lucas. Those guys combine those three guys. Eighteen pass breakups and five interceptions this year. So it's kind of been the strength or one of the strengths of this Clemson team. Conversely, Quinn Ewers numbers versus owner so much superior than they are versus man coverage. I mean, interesting. You'd expect him to be good versus zone. He's a veteran quarterback. He's seen it all. He shouldn't be confused. But you got a lot of. And I know the. They don't have what they had a year ago. Right. With. With Xavier Worthy and A.D. mitchell, but they still got a ton of talented receivers and speed and athleticism. Right. And so you would think we'd be winning one on ones and exploiting guys in man coverage. They haven't. It's been inconsistent. He's been inconsistent.
- [39:42]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [39:43]
Todd McShay
Right. Okay, so how does Texas win? I think by winning their one on ones on the outside. Okay. And, and, and why lean into it since it's the strength of Clemson's defense? Because I saw Texas in a loss to Georgia.
- [40:01]
Mel Kiper Jr.
This is breakout. Yeah.
- [40:03]
Todd McShay
Break out at wide receiver. I mean like it was, it was like finally, all right, we got our dudes and guess what? It wasn't Isaiah Bond. Isaiah Bond was a freaking liability. I mean, you go back and look at like frustrating all season, but a liability. Against Georgia he had the drop, slash the drop that turned into an interception. And it was an illegal shift on that play by him. So it was two Errors on that play. Then offensive pass interference a little bit later. Then almost immediately after the offensive pass interference had a second penalty. You know, right there.
- [40:39]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [40:41]
Todd McShay
I don't know if It's. He's not 100% healthy and he's. And he's pressing. I don't know if Isaiah Bond is. It's in his head. I do think that a little bit of time off can only help, whether it's physical or mental or a little bit of both. But even without him. Okay, I'm going after Clemson. What I saw from them, the Trio, Matthew Golden, DeAndre Moore and Silas Bolden, they were awesome in that game. 312 receiving yards on 19 catches and a touchdown. We just haven't seen that with Golden. Best deep threat of all of them. Get this. You ready? 13 of the 20 passes that are have been attempted. That's not a big number. 13 of 20 passes attempted beyond 25 yards this year. He's been on the receiving end or the targeted end, I should say. Seven of those 13 have been catches and three of those seven catches went for touchdowns. So he's going to be your big play guy. He has been your big play guy. We saw it against Georgia. We've seen it throughout the year. DeAndre Moore, more of a kind of like your efficiency guy. But he stepped up and he was, he was a compliment in that this last game to Golden. He needs to continue to have that role. And then Silas, Bold. I know he only had two catches, but my God, he took over that fourth offensive drive for, for Texas. I mean like, he's like a lightning bolt. A tiny one. 168 pounds, but he's a lightning bolt.
- [42:07]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Just bouncing some gunner home.
- [42:10]
Todd McShay
So. Yes. So listen, I. 60% of the throws for yours this year have been within five yards of the line of scrimmage. But when we've seen in first quarters, when they come out on the script, know what they want to do and attack, they've had success. I think they need to bring that mentality until this game's out of reach. I'll be interested to see who jumps out to you player.
- [42:33]
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's the skill guys for. For Clemson. Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. The tight end, Jake Brining stole. I think these guys can make some plays. I think they have talent at those positions. It's about getting the ball. But I will say this. They got to catch everything clean. No. Anything that go, any drops, any kind of deflection is like chum in the water for that Texas defense. They will Be all over it in a, in a drop or a deflection could quickly turn into an interception. So I think they're gonna have to get those guys in space. I think they're, have to get them involved in the running game. Williams and Wesco. And I think for that, for those reasons, those three guys could be a big part of this game. If Clemson has any chance. I think they've got to make plays.
- [43:12]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I, I mean I could say Gunner Helm, I think he'll be a part of it. But I got to go back to that trio of receivers. And truthfully, if you're going to get man to man coverage, Golden's got to be the guy. He was the guy last game. He's been the guy a couple times this year. Can't trust Isaiah Bond. If you get it from him, great. I mean then we're, then we're off and running. But I, I think that Matthew golden is going to have to be the guy. He, he's emerging. Call that last game his emergence, whatever you want to call it. But he, we're going, we're going after Clemson and, and Golden's going to be my primary prediction. I guess I get some fun ones here. Go ahead, you start.
- [43:54]
Mel Kiper Jr.
What does that mean?
- [43:56]
Todd McShay
I'm excited.
- [43:57]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Look, it's a big number. It's 11 and a half, right?
- [44:00]
Todd McShay
Yes. Yes. Texas minus 11 and a half, minus 450 is the money line.
- [44:05]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I got everyone covering.
- [44:07]
Todd McShay
I got 51. Yeah, you suck. 51 and a half is the, is the over. Under.
- [44:12]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Wait till the last one. The last one's my, my curveball, I guess. But yeah, no, I think Texas covers. I just, Look, I don't. I think Clemson fans think I hate Clemson. I don't. I mean Clay Club Kate, Club Nick has really grown on me.
- [44:24]
Todd McShay
I just, I'm surprised it took this long to come up. I didn't even think about it when I said you cut, you cover Clemson. How they pull off the upset here. I didn't even think about it. Club Clemson fans are, are like skipping.
- [44:35]
Billy Napier
Yeah.
- [44:35]
Todd McShay
Past year. Like, I don't want to hear a. What's the deal with not a word out of your mouth. Mention about Clemson. I'm sitting.
- [44:43]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I can't. Listen. I can't speak highly enough about Club Nick down the stretch. Man. I, I really am impressed. But again, I don't, I don't think they're a well rounded enough team to, to beat a Texas.
- [44:55]
Todd McShay
Are you ready for this? Get your notes page out on your phone. Okay. Or get a Pen and paper. Because you're old.
- [45:01]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I got it. I got it.
- [45:03]
Todd McShay
I'm not gonna say it twice, Mitch. Okay. Few things you got to keep in mind for this matchup. Number one, I don't see Clemson putting a lot of. A lot of points on the board. I just don't see score. I really don't. I could. I think the over under on Clemson is 19 and a half. I would go under. I think this could be like a 13, 16 point full game performance from Clemson. Okay, got it. But take Texas. I agree with you. You might. You might suck, but you're right on this one. You're Mr. Chalk. But this time you're right. Take Texas. Texas is going to pull this one out. I also think it's going to be low scoring. So anything you're doing on Fanduel, if you're looking like. Look in my eyes. Do you think I'm messing around here? A couple times, we'll give you some heaters. And we've been. We've been. We were right, like five out of four out of six times, I think. But this time, run with me here. Texas wins. Low scoring. With everything you do. Okay, here's one that's real specific. This is my number two. I guess that the first one was really two things. My number two. And this is the most important one. This one messed up. Mitch, you're gonna think I'm sick. Consider the third quarter under ten and a half points. People are watching like, what the is wrong with McShay? What happened to him? She all right? I just. You know how I am. I like a rabbit hole. I get into the. And don't wait.
- [46:29]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Don't wait for the first half to unfold. Just take it right now.
- [46:33]
Todd McShay
Let me skip to the third point. Okay?
- [46:35]
Mel Kiper Jr.
All right, here we go.
- [46:36]
Todd McShay
And I'll come. This is a rally. Every time I watch tape or watch a game of Texas, it's the same thing. Come out aggressive. There's the offense. I see it. If they get. If they get a sniff of a lead, like a half a point lead, if they get any kind of lead, it's like, all right. Trust our defense. We're good. We're good. Don't put the ball. It's like, all right, we're up by three. Gutter down, okay? And so in the second half, it's like every time I come out and watch a third quarter of a Texas game, it's like, what happened? Where's the aggressiveness? Where are the shots? And then all of a sudden, what happens Then they let teams back in and then now they're going to get a little bit aggressive in the fourth quarter. The third quarter is the money spot. I went back and looked. You ready for this match? I am sick.
- [47:30]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Of all the things you're going to talk about tonight.
- [47:32]
Todd McShay
This was I know excited about. I this is the upset special.
- [47:35]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Like I found something, I uncovered something.
- [47:37]
Todd McShay
There have been more than 10 points scored at just twice in the third quarter of Texas's last 12 games. And the. And the spread is 10 and a half. Take the under trend right there. That's a cold trend. And now and then my going back to my third point. We're rotating here but they all play together. Point point two and point three. Point three is keep an eye on this in game. If you are a sicko and you're in and you're betting the in game stuff if 10 if Texas gets a lead unless they're going to go completely against what they've done all season long and what Sark believes in and and the belief they have in that defense start going under for everything. They are going to run the football and trust their defense and it's gonna. That game's gonna end fast if they get a lead in the second half. All right, fourth game. I feel like I gotta take a shower after that. Tennessee at Ohio State definitely the, you know just the big Name matchup. The 8 vs. 9 Ohio State. All the storylines coming in. Tennessee buying, buying up all the tickets, you know all the drama you could imagine. Let's bottom line this thing. Ohio State's -7 and a half. It's the night game, prime time game. We're coming on. Let me remind everyone right after this game you think this is fun tonight. Like we're coming on Saturday night. This is the I promise you of all the stuff we've done over the last two and a half months this is the one I'm most excited about. Like the opportunity to come on and just live reaction. We obviously will have it in the can from the night before but three games back to back to back where we can actually focus. It's not like a normal Saturday where it's like 17 games and I wasn't watching Alabama. Now they're in a dog fight against Vanderbilt.
- [49:17]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Chasing games.
- [49:18]
Todd McShay
Yeah chasing games like, like a gambler. But after the game we're going to be on live reaction show on YouTube. I'll tweet it out. Mitchell tweeted out at at scouts inch that's M U E N C H for those not watching on. On YouTube now, but we'll be on YouTube and can't wait to have everyone join us there. We'll answer some questions. We'll be there. Now Tennessee, Ohio State. As I said, 8pm minus seven and a half. Ohio State. What does Ohio State have to do to right the ship after that disastrous Michigan game?
- [49:54]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Look, man, I. This was a tough one for me. They've not. They've not run the ball the last two games. Both games are at home. They didn't run the ball well against Indiana. I know that game's a blowout, but go back and look at those numbers. If Henderson doesn't break that long run at the end of the game. They didn't really run the ball that well consistently, consistently again against Indiana. Didn't run the ball well against Michigan. But here's the thing. They got to stay committed to the run. So it's some of the other stuff that we've already talked about in other games they're gonna have to get.
- [50:19]
Todd McShay
And. And it's. And I truly believe because they don't trust their protection.
- [50:24]
Mel Kiper Jr.
They don't. There's a lot of issues. I mean I think their. Their offensive line is a mess. We've talked about it all year. They lost a potential first tackle off the board in Simmons. The guy Seth McLaughlin I think won the Remington Award as the best center in the country and he's gone. I mean they are a different offensive line up front. They have a hard time creating lanes in the run game. And now you're facing a Tennessee front that's super talented. I think Chip Kelly's got his work cut out for him in this game.
- [50:51]
Todd McShay
And some timer just went off by the way for all three games keep going.
- [50:59]
Mel Kiper Jr.
That I think he'll. He can do in this game is. Well one I'll say this. They need to get Jeremiah Smith involved somehow and I know it's going to be tough against that pass rush. You have the most talented receiver in the country. I think you got to take some shots downfield and a little steal a little bit from your book. You do it on early downs. You do it on. On at times. The Tennessee's not expecting it. So they don't tee off on you because they're going to have a hard time holding up. But you've got to take some shots downfield with Jeremiah Smith. I like the way that the Kelly will. The Chip will reduce receivers inside so they're kind of right next to the tight end. It's kind of tough to sort it out they run some mess routes.
- [51:36]
Todd McShay
I could see them taking it like a shot or two really early in this game to Jared.
- [51:40]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I think, listen, if they hit one of those, that place goes nuts. It kind of could change the complexion of the game. I think they absolutely have to do it. Could back off the run defense a little bit, which they need to do. I think that's a big part of what they're gonna have to do. And then listen to this. You. As tough as I think it's going to be to run the ball, they have had success. You talked about the Penn State defense, that Ohio State game. They, you know, Ohio State had some success getting outside on some speed, option stuff. Some, some pitches. They could do that. I think Tennessee's defense is going to have the speed to kind of defend those runs well. So it's going to be tough flooding. But they have to stay committed to this. Listen to this stat. Over the past two seasons, Will Howard is 3, 6 in games with 30 or more passing attempts. This year, 30 more passing attempts. 30 or more passing attempts twice. Michigan and Oregon, the only.
- [52:34]
Todd McShay
Start that over again. Start. Let's hear that. Slow it down. Let's let, let it sink in like a sponge.
- [52:41]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Over the past two seasons, okay, Will Howard is 3 and 6 in games that he has thrown with 30 or more passing attempts. Okay. This year he, he had the win against Michigan State, but he lost to Oregon and Michigan. The only teams he beat last year were Troy and ucf. The other losses are mostly against ranked teams. So when. And a lot of them were last year at Kansas State. Granted, not the same team that he's on now, but you. I don't think they want him throwing the ball more than 30 times.
- [53:13]
Todd McShay
The problem is they'd like to make 24.
- [53:17]
Mel Kiper Jr.
And there's other things involved. So you say to yourself, you know, run Hitches, run quick hitters. We threw a pick six against Penn State because he was throwing a quick hitter. He threw a pick in the red zone against Michigan just trying to get the ball out quickly. He's had some issues there as well. I mean, they're going to have to. Again, this is, you know, it's very similar to what I said about the Clemson offense coordinator is the same thing with Chip Kelly at Ohio State. He's going to have to have a hell of a game. In terms of his play calling, in terms of the game planning, I think that they, It's a tall mountain for them to climb.
- [53:47]
Todd McShay
I don't understand.
- [53:47]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I want you to explain this to me. I don't understand the spread in this game because they're at Ohio State.
- [53:54]
Todd McShay
You done it. Get it. We'll get back to it.
- [53:57]
Billy Napier
All right.
- [53:58]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I. I just want. I'll tell you this, too. They need Caleb Downs to have a big night. Return of the ball, man. They need Caleb Downs to put them in. So you.
- [54:05]
Todd McShay
You almost feel like. Listening to you. It feels like almost desperation for Ohio State.
- [54:10]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I listen to this.
- [54:11]
Todd McShay
This is like they're gonna pull a rabbit out of the hat, remember?
- [54:14]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Does this sound familiar at all? When. When Tennessee was going into Georgia and I was like, georgia's dead. Georgia's done. I've been watching the tape, man. Georgia doesn't look like the same Georgia that I've seen in the years past. And you're like, pump the brakes, mensch. I. I'm. I should learn my lesson. I have not learned my lesson. I'm still going with Tennessee. I still like Tennessee to go on their way.
- [54:33]
Todd McShay
All right, well, you. You also jumped the gun on the.
- [54:37]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I can't.
- [54:38]
Todd McShay
I'm sorry. No, that's fine. That's fine. I'll. I'll get back to.
- [54:40]
Mel Kiper Jr.
My brain's on fire.
- [54:41]
Todd McShay
How does Tennessee pull off this upset? I will answer that question since you weren't kind enough to ask it. Tennessee. Tennessee pulls off this upset. Let's put it this way. I'm gonna. I'm gonna phrase it better. Tennessee's only chance to pull off this upset is if they hit their shots. Like, this is a. This. This is. My opinion obviously differs from yours. This is a desperate situation for hitting the deep ball. Here's what's going to happen. You're right. I don't like. And I don't want to oversimplify things because it's not that simple. I get it, like, but I do know this. Tennessee is going to run the football, right? They're going to grind it away. They've got an awesome back in Dylan Sampson, and they're gonna do it. They're going to do it with. With relative success, but it ain't going to be enough to upset this Ohio State team just running the football. They're not going to. We're not going to look up and Sampson ran for 145 and on. On his back. They were able to win this game. It's just not going to happen. I also know this. They're gonna. They're gonna short game it. They're gonna throw all those little quick things that they do, and they're gonna. That's gonna be a supplement to their run game. They're gonna help grind it out. So it's gonna be grind on the ground with Sampton Sampson, grind to their receivers on the screens, right? Pick up the three, pick up the four. All that, that they do. But, but here's the deal. Josh Hypo to me is as good as anyone in the country. Anyone. And creating, whether it's a handful, whether it's one or two, a more than one, typically really good opportunity for his quarterback to hit a deep shot. Schemes it up, he lulls you. We're balanced. We're Tennessee. We're physical. We're more physical on defense now. We're more physical up front. On our offensive line. We got a physical back. We're gonna hit a bunch of screens, we're gonna stretch you out. So now you got to go 52 plus yards, you know, horizontally were physical, physical, physical. Short game, short and then pop. That's what happens, right? The difference is a few years back, Hendon Hooker was hitting those, those deep balls at an unbelievably high rate. And that's when they were leaving the nation in scoring. That's when they were like by far the most potent offense in college football. The problem is Nico. Super talented, unbelievably bright future ahead of him. He's not there yet. And the biggest, not the biggest, but the area, that's been shocking to me. We've talked about it over and over again early in games, missing wide open receivers down the field. He does that against Ohio State. They can't win. I'm convinced they cannot win. They've got to hit those shots early in the game. So you asked me the question, how does Tennessee pull off this upset? It seems simple, but when they get their deep shots, Nico's got to hit them. I also want to stress this. Ohio State's corners and secondary in coverage outside of Caleb Downs, overrated, physical. They can press you. They, they make some great plays here and there at times have been really good. But watch it like that Indiana tape was a perfect example, right? That first drive when, when the quarterback who was efficient passer of the football had time to throw. It was easy, right? It was, it was easy. So Denzel, Burke, Davison, Igbo Nelson, they're, they're like just watching them in coverage now, it'll be interesting, the matchups and all that, but I, I just think that there's vulnerability there. And so you combine what Hypo does schematically and what they have on the perimeter, which isn't great, but the fact that the corners for Ohio State are vulnerable. I think, I think this is a recipe. That's their best shot of pulling this off. So I also want to emphasize this. They can't come from behind and beat Ohio State. They just can't, period. Like if there's one thing in these four games that I am certain of. Ohio State gets 10 point lead. It's over. It's over. It plays into Ohio State strength. Their defense is too good. Michigan, even the Michigan game, they were damn good against Michigan. The defense damn good.
- [59:11]
Mel Kiper Jr.
This is. This is the most wrong you've been in a while.
- [59:15]
Todd McShay
Okay.
- [59:15]
Mel Kiper Jr.
We need to. Can't come back from 10 point. If they get. Let's put it this way. I think Ohio State comes out early. Let's say they hit that big shot. Let's say Ohio State jumps out to a 10 point early, second quarter lead. Do you think they can sustain putting points on the board like that?
- [59:30]
Todd McShay
No, but I don't think I. I.
- [59:31]
Mel Kiper Jr.
See climbs back in.
- [59:33]
Todd McShay
I think they did. They can run the football effectively enough. They can possess the ball. And. And I think that they can. They'll have success on defense. I mean, I just don't. If Tennessee's forced in a situation where they've got to throw from behind with Nico in that environment. A night game. Ohio State fans over the Michigan loss. Because we know how it goes. Two quarters in. We're leading a college football playoff game. Like everything's. Everything's hunky dory. I truly believe that Ohio State will shut them down. I truly believe I do. Okay, we'll see. I just maybe.
- [60:13]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I mean, listen, you tell me. I think Pox will tell me the same thing. Don't get caught up on the week to week in college stuff. But we are talking about Ohio State defense. That was the last time that they were on the field. They couldn't slow down Khalil Mullings enough to win a football game. I mean 32 carries, 116 yards and a touchdown.
- [60:33]
Todd McShay
Yeah, because they're offense sucked.
- [60:35]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Whose offense sucked?
- [60:37]
Todd McShay
Ohio States. Yes. And they kept putting them in shitty positions. Think about how shitty the positions they were in.
- [60:43]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I totally understand. Do you think that Ohio State's gonna be better against the Tennessee defense?
- [60:50]
Todd McShay
Yes.
- [60:52]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Interesting.
- [60:54]
Todd McShay
Potentially. I'm just saying they can't if they.
- [60:59]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Get up is what you're saying.
- [61:01]
Todd McShay
If they get up. I want to hear your prediction.
- [61:02]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Let's hear your prediction.
- [61:03]
Todd McShay
Well, can I give you my. My player that is gonna have to have a huge game and it plays into What I'm saying, and I've been holding on to it. Dante Thornton, 26 yards per catch. Six out of is 25 catches. Not a lot of catches, but six out of 25 gone for touchdowns. Okay, just. What. Here's the thing. No, this is why he's so critical to this game. When he doesn't show up or he's not a key part. And by key part, it's never six catches. 130. It's. It's like two catches, 90 yards. You know, he had one catch. He had one catch for 42 yards combined. In. In the two losses they had Georgia and Arkansas one for 42. When they don't get some juice from him in games that matter, they're. They're in trouble. So he's. He's going to play the biggest. He's six five, 214 pounds. They need. They need like three big catches from him in this game.
- [62:01]
Mel Kiper Jr.
He can do it. He's talented. But whether or not he does is kind of up in the air.
- [62:06]
Todd McShay
All right, you want prediction?
- [62:08]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, I do.
- [62:09]
Todd McShay
You gave me yours. You like 10. It's the only game out of the four that you've given the underdog and.
- [62:14]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Correct.
- [62:15]
Todd McShay
And it's the. The game that I am most certain that you're wrong. Ohio State wins big. Big. Wow. Yes. Get it out. Get that. Listen to me. If. First of all, first of all, and a lot of times the, the tape doesn't even matter. It's. It's like. It's understanding the, The. The gambling landscape, if you will. Right. Tennessee's the most bet side of the college football playoffs so far. That scares me.
- [62:50]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I know. That spread scares me too, but Andoul.
- [62:52]
Todd McShay
Is begging the public to take the points. With the SEC team against the. The Big Ten team. It's an Ohio State team that's splintered. They're a mess. Ryan Day is going to lose his job. People in Columbus want him. Want his head on a stake. They can't beat Michigan. Everything's a mess. Tennessee fans have bought all the tickets. It's going to be a Tennessee. They're bringing part of their band. They're going to run out to their music. Heard all this all week long. I've had enough. I've had enough. All right. Like, get the. Get the m. That's a Michigan thing. That's not an Ohio State. What they are all about and what they can be. Everyone seems to forget the roster they have and the talent they have. Okay, that's a Michigan problem. That Ohio State Has Buckeye's big in this game.
- [63:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
You just, you just told me how their corners are overrated. Their offensive line's a mess. They have good. They have good defensive line but not great pass rush.
- [63:53]
Todd McShay
You know the beauty of this is big boy.
- [63:55]
Mel Kiper Jr.
What's that?
- [63:56]
Todd McShay
You know, the beauty right after this game that would suck if it was a Friday night game because then. Because I'd have to wait a whole night and obviously I wouldn't wait, but to publicly hurt shame you, I won't have to wait but like nine minutes. I'll be the first. For the first time ever in the this show. I'll be the first one on the this. Yeah. I'll be early in the stream yard app that we use to put this on the air. I'm gonna be here like the. It won't stop. I won't need to watch the last five minutes of the game because it's gonna be over Ohio State big. Just my. Just my prediction. All right. This is fun. This is fun. We're gonna do it again for round two. We'll be back. As I mentioned, Saturday night, I appreciate everyone we mentioned. I truly appreciate. We don't say it enough. I suck at this hosting thing. I don't tell you to download and subscribe and, and tell a friend and all the stuff that you hear on all the podcasts. I probably should do it more, but it's just not who we are. But we appreciate you being here, truly. It's been a lot of fun. It's been a fun ride. I love that we get to finish it up with the 12 team college football Playoff. I love the fact that Saturday night we're here live and we'll be yelling at each other again next week. Getting in nine days, getting ready for these matchups. But I, but I also am excited about this. We're not done here. We got a chance and I promise full transparency on the show. And you're gonna get it. I'm not dressed like this. If you're watching on YouTube and this and this guy's. He's still got the same thing. I think he's got his bad birdie hat on. But he's. But he's definitely wearing a different top. I want to say he was in teal on Tuesday.
- [65:34]
Mel Kiper Jr.
This is one man. I try to match it up. Yeah.
- [65:36]
Todd McShay
Iris is getting the laundry done. I know it's not you. So Billy Napier, head coach of the. Of the Florida Gators.
- [65:45]
Mel Kiper Jr.
How.
- [65:45]
Todd McShay
I mean, how amazing is it that he had the time that he took the time, generous with his time to come talk to us. And there were two things I wanted to talk to him about. We're going to roll it into the interview right now. But just, just so you know, he's playing in a bowl game on, on Friday and he took the time in Tampa to sit down and talk to us. What I, I thought it was one of the, he's not going to win coach, but he didn't win coach of the year. And, and understandably. And, but I thought it was one of the most impressive coaching jobs that any coach did in all of college football. You and I have been on bad teams before. That gets sideways fast.
- [66:23]
Billy Napier
Yep.
- [66:23]
Todd McShay
To keep a team together with the expectations in Gainesville, all the stuff that goes into that and the sec, the pressures, all to keep a team like this. And you'll hear it throughout his interview. You can see why they stay level. Right. And I just, I have a great appreciation for the job he did this year. We want to talk, we're going to talk to him right now about that. And also, I mean, how cool is it that the week leading into the College Football Playoff we get to talk to a head coach who faced three of these teams, Tennessee, Texas and Georgia. And he takes the time on game week before a bowl game trying to go 8 and 5 and build momentum with the transfer portal going on, with recruiting going on. He takes the time to sit down and break down all three of those teams and what you got to do to beat them. So please don't miss this. So you want to be a marketer? It's easy. You just have to score a ton of leads and figure out a way to turn them all into customers. Plus manage a dozen channels, write a million blogs, and launch a hundred campaigns all at once. When that's done, simply make your socials.
- [67:25]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Go viral and bring in record profits.
- [67:28]
Todd McShay
No sweat. Okay, fine, it's a lot of Sweat. But with HubSpot's AI powered marketing tools, launching benchmark breaking campaigns is easier than ever. Get started@HubSpot.com marketers.
- [67:42]
Mel Kiper Jr.
This episode is brought to you by LifeLock. The holidays mean more travel, more shopping, more time online and more personal info in places that could expose you to identity theft. That's why LifeLock monitors millions of dollars data points every second. If your identity is stolen, their US based restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed or your money back. Give more holiday fun and less holiday worry with LifeLock. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit LifeLock.com podcast terms apply the McShay.
- [68:12]
Todd McShay
Show is brought to you by FanDuel. College football is coming to an end and with the 12 team playoff going on, you won't miss a moment of the action. And right now, all customers on FanDuel can score a profit boost for every first round matchup. Here's how it works. Place a bet on the game, apply your profit boost and enjoy boosted winnings when your bet hits. And the best part, you get paid instantly when you win. I'm just looking at the board right now. First round of the College Football Playoff. I think we might have a live dog in that Indiana matchup. IU at Notre Dame going to keep a close eye on that later this week in the McShay show. And also, how can you not get involved? Number eight, Ohio State hosting number nine, Tennessee. There's a lot of action on this college football board, so use your boost on bets like spreads, overs, unders method of first touchdown, and so much more. Don't wait. Visit FanDuel.com McShay to download America's number one sportsbook and make your playoff payoff even bigger. Must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in D.C. optin required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including any token expiration. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg d help.com Billy, we appreciate you joining the the McShay show here. We're kind of a maiden voyage. We appreciate your time. We know you're down in Tampa right now. I just, I wanted to run through this for you real quick. You ready? Miami A and M, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. Billy, that's seven, seven teams that were all in the College Football playoff mix in the last week or two weeks of the season. And really you knocked out one of them. And at one point you're down to your third string quarterback, a Yale transfer. Like you prepare as a coach for everything, but it certainly wasn't the plan going into the year. So you finished 75 the regular season. But my question to you is, in some ways, was this, was this the most rewarding season of coaching that you've ever had?
- [70:27]
Billy Napier
Well, I think it teaches you a lot about yourself, you know, I think it teaches you a lot about the people around you. I mean, I think you realize for me, I think it just helps you reset a little bit relative to purpose. It kind of finally got to a place where it's like, look, you know, I love the game I love everything the game teaches. Sometimes it doesn't go the way you want it to, and when it gets really, really challenging and really difficult, I think you got to go back to purpose. Why do you coach? You know, my dad was a high school football coach, so, yep, I think I leaned on that a little bit this year. And as a leader, you have an obligation to the people you lead, that being our players and our staff. And, you know, you really want to do the best job you can for those people. So that was kind of the focus for me through the tough times. Would say, don't forget your purpose, and you have an obligation to the people you lead.
- [71:22]
Todd McShay
We're all family members. We all have a personal life. Right. I just, like, I've spent time with Urban when he was down in Gainesville after he was coaching and working with ESPN for a year. And it's a bubble down there, you know, and it's the SEC and the pressures unlike anything you can imagine if you haven't experienced it. And I. Again, I. From where I said I can only imagine, but, like, you've got a wife, you've got three kids. How do you stay the course? How do you manage all those things when things aren't going well early in the season?
- [71:54]
Billy Napier
Well, again, I. You know, I've learned a long time ago, you know, the game is very conditional, and you need something in life that's not conditional. You know, for me, that's been a faith foundation to some degree. I think if you get too. Too much of your identity is in the profession, in the game. You know, that's where maybe you start making bad decisions. You know, I think you got to keep perspective, try to remain objective, take a deep breath, you know, and, you know, we're still coaching football. We're still leading young people. We still have an obligation to try to, you know, make decisions in the best interest of the team. I think we did that. You know, I think we made a lot of changes throughout the year. We continue to adapt. We. We had a relatively young team, but I. I do think we learned as we went, and I think ultimately we had really good kids, and that helped. You know, nobody pointed fingers. Nobody blamed anybody else. I think we took ownership. Everybody took ownership of what they could do better to help the team, and that's how we dug our way out of that hole. So I'm very thankful for the players and their attitude in the tough times.
- [73:08]
Todd McShay
Well, we've said it before on this show, and I think I've heard it echoed, like, what you were able to do as a leader, like, forget even the coaching and the. The SEC and the pressure, like, what you were able to do as a leader and to stay the course was. Was something that, you know, I. You impressed me, for whatever it's worth. And I think a lot of people out there just like, have an unbelievable respect for the way you handled the whole thing this entire year. And here you are, right, going to a bowl game, the Gasparillo Bowl. Obviously the SEC teams got knocked down a little bit. Your. Your goals are. Are higher moving forward, but I don't know, again from the outside looking in, like, in a very different feel. I remember like two years ago, you and I talked at the pro Day for Anthony Richardson, and I just remember back to that season. Anthony sat out that game getting ready for the NFL. I think Ventrell, Miller and some other guys getting ready for the NFL sat out this year. It feels like your players are opting in and there's how important against, you know, in the Gasparilla bowl versus Tulane, how important is this bowl game for your program? Kind of building for the next step?
- [74:14]
Billy Napier
Yeah, I think somewhere around mid season, you know, that first open date, you know, then we beat Central Florida, then we go to Tennessee and we play them to a tough overtime game where Graham Merch got hurt. And then here we go the next week, we really controlled the game against Kentucky. And at that point in time in college football, Kentucky had beat no Miss. Yep. They had played Georgia really close that same week. Tennessee beats Alabama. Alabama had beaten Georgia earlier in the year. And that's where I think that we kind of flipped the script. Our kids started to realize, like, look, we're not far off here. Like we can go toe to toe with anybody the rest of the way in that level of belief. DJ Agweight, the win against Kentucky, obviously we had to challenge the organization to raise their level or play it with a rookie quarterback. Everybody has got to raise their level of play, and I think we did that. We started to play complimentary football and I think that. That we have a young team that has carried over. We won three in a row to finish the year. Obviously, big wins against lsu, Ole Miss, Florida State. So we got some momentum for the first time since we've been here, and I think that we got a lot of good players coming back. So I think there's a. There's some buzz in the building that all the work that we've done in these first couple years is starting to pay off. So, you know, beliefs are powerful thing and I think there's hope for the future and certainly all of these young players, I think are, you know, not only talented, but I think they've got character and good leadership as well.
- [75:57]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Coach, you talk to us a little bit more about leg way. I mean, the tools are obvious, the frame, the arm strength. And then I think about some of the plays he made this year. The, the play, the, the touchdown pass to tie the Tennessee game and send it to overtime. You know, the 36 yard pass, I think against LSU to put the, put you guys up late. The Georgia touchdown early second quarter. This kid seems to embrace the moment. Can you talk to us a little bit about his progress and where you hope that progress goes next?
- [76:23]
Billy Napier
Well, first of all, he's an incredible, he has a, a great presence about him. You know, he's very humble, he's very grounded. You know, his parents did an unbelievable job. He's from Willis, Texas, small town northeast of Houston. And I think he's just old school values. You know, his mom and dad are just salt to the first people. And he's always kind of been the big fish in a little pond, you know, so that's not, it's not new to him, you know, and I think he, he's had the ability to not ever get entitled, you know, it doesn't affect him. I knew him before he exploded as a senior. You know, all of a sudden he becomes a Gatorade national player of the year and he just stayed. It didn't affect him. Now the way he treats people, the way he works, and I have an appreciation for that. Then, then he's a very talented young player. A ton of hype around him, but what does he do? He shows up. Graham Merch is the starting quarterback. You know, he kind of gets in his hip pocket. Graham is a consummate professional, the ultimate grinder, teammate leader, blue collar. So he had a chance to be around Graham and I think that really helped him kind of, hey, this is what it looks like.
- [77:40]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [77:41]
Billy Napier
And I think that contributed to his ability to play well this year. Now what you're describing is real like this. He has an innate ability to kind of raise his level of play. You know, he could have a little bit of a sloppy Thursday and then all of a sudden, you know, Friday ramps it up and the closer we get to kickoff, it's like, okay, I'm going to take mine and I'm going to beat yours. Yeah. I think those plays, they, they not only make a difference from a production standpoint, but the energy they bring to the team, you know, and I get to see a bunch of them every day of the week. So, yeah, he's talented, but I think his character has rubbed off. He's a great competitor on game day.
- [78:29]
Todd McShay
Coach, I'm curious. This time of year is kind of wild in college football. You're preparing for a bowl game. Some. Some schools are preparing for the College Football Playoff. We saw a report this week. Not a report. I mean, it's just. It's what happened. Beau Prabula, the backup quarterback for Penn State, is now in the transfer portal, won't be playing, wants to be at Penn State for the rest of the season, but Drew Aller is coming back. James Franklin obviously has been vocal, like any coach would be about, you know, the system and the timing of things. So just taking a step away, if I were to just say, all right, Billy, your. Your college football, you're the commissioner and you were to make one change or a couple of changes when it comes to specifically like the. The postseason post, regular season, off season, schedule, what can we change to make this where a guy like Beau Prabula doesn't have to decide on whether to finish out the season where he's been an integral part in, why Penn State is going to get to the playoff or go and take advantage of an opportunity that is awaiting him?
- [79:33]
Billy Napier
Well, we got a couple things right, in my opinion. I think moving up the signing day was a good decision. You know, we get the season over, we sign the high school group of players, we have a dead period where we can meet with our current players. I do think if you are in a conference championship game there, there is some conflict there. But for the most part, the Hayes in the barn at that point, from high school recruitment standpoint. And then, okay, here comes the post season and the portal, right? That. That's where you have a conflict. Now we're in what we call a quiet period where they can only come to your campus. Last year at this point, you could go on the road recruiting, right? And signing day was literally tomorrow. Okay? So, you know, we not only would be trying to retain players, but we also would have been on the road recruiting and the high school players would not have been done yet. So we did get two things right. I think that we have to consider making December a dead period, in my opinion, because then the players can't take official visits. That's going to push everything back to January. Now you take official visits, you know, once you kind of get into January. So most of the postseason is done once you get in January now there's going to be a handful of teams that are still in the playoffs that playing a New Year's Bowl. But you know, you got to compartmentalize your time, you know, and that's what I think. I mean, I think January needs to turn into portal official visit season, you know, and obviously extend the clock a little bit to get them into school. You know, I do think the players have some rights. They won't have as many rights going forward and revenue sharing because we're going to be very much a semi professional contractual agreements, there'll be a little bit more of a binding document there in some regard. But look, to me, what I tell our staff is I don't want to hear anybody complaining or making excuses. I think, you know, what we got to do is we got to be better at focusing on the task at hand, you know, got to have the ability to change gears not only within the, within the day, you know, you got to go from game planning to portal recruitment to player retention to practice to, you know, whatever the next challenge is. So look, it's how you separate yourself. We don't make the rules. We compete within the current rules. And then our job is just to try to build the best team as possible. So for me, it's kind of the ultimate challenge. You know, can we have a different level of focus and kind of focus on the task at hand and be, you know, I think that's the way we can separate ourselves to some degree.
- [82:29]
Todd McShay
It's all fascinating stuff. I mean, how quickly all of this is changing, you know, kind of right in front of our eyes. You mind humoring us for a couple minutes? I know the last thing you want to do is talk about past opponents from this season.
- [82:41]
Billy Napier
Yeah, sure.
- [82:42]
Todd McShay
With, with a bowl game coming up in the, you know, very soon. But you did face Tennessee, Georgia and Texas and they're all in the College Football Playoff and it's obviously a big focus. I'm curious, I just want to kind of go through quickly, what if you were to, you know, if Ryan Day was to call you, they're playing Tennessee, what kind of priority list? What would be at the top of the priority list against Tennessee? What do you have to do to have a chance to. To beat a really good Tennessee team?
- [83:12]
Billy Napier
Well, first of all, I think, you know, Tennessee judges got his, you know, he's made his name playing offense and creating explosive plays and scoring points. But don't overlook that Tennessee's really good on defense. I think they've done a good Job improving each year since he's been there. And the personnel is good. You know, the. The inside, interior, defensive line, the edge players. I think there are very multiple. The front variables, the pressures, and I think they're pretty sticky and coverage. So they play good defense, so you can't overlook that. You know, I think I've been impressed with how they've improved a little bit each year there. They're also very good in the kicking game. You know, I think they've got a really good identity in all six phases of kicking game. I think the coordinator does a good job. And then offensively, what we've learned is that you got to get the call in, you got to get your cleats in the ground and get aligned correctly and have good eye discipline and play the place, you know, so, you know, typically how you are able to handle the tempo and then keep the ball in front of you, make them go the distance. You know, I think they've got a good concept. We beat him two years ago and then obviously played them to a tight game this year, Graham getting injured in the game. But I respect. I do think they're physical, although they play with pace on offense. I think there's a physicality to their team, and I think the personnel is pretty good. So, you know, I think you better be ready for that defense, and I think in the kicking game, they can cause problems for you. We know Josh is always good and having his ways to create yards and points, but, you know, it's. It's a blueprint that's worked for him, and I. I think that, you know, I respect it.
- [85:08]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Coach, one of the things that jumped out to me in that game, and really against Georgia and Texas as well, was how many times you guys ran the ball against them. And I know some of that's injuries at quarterback, and that kind of dictates maybe what you're doing, but, I mean, it was. I think it was 40 runs against Tennessee, 38 against Georgia, 41 against Texas. These are. These are good run defenses, and you guys had some success. Can you talk about maybe that runhevy approach or that staying committed to the run and. And how important that is?
- [85:36]
Billy Napier
Yeah, well, both. All three of those teams, I think, presented different dynamics. You know, we're going to Tennessee, we're trying to stay on schedule. We're trying to negate the rushers they have. We're trying to shrink the game to some degree and limit their opportunities. And. And I do think that for us to have success, given the makeup of our Team in that game, we needed to do that, you know, and you know, I do think against Texas, we're playing with our third quarterback, you know, so. Right. You know, I think at some point there was kind of like, okay, what can we do? Well, and I felt like that ultimately, you know, we have the ability to run the ball. We proved that. So. But Georgia, I think we're playing with a rookie quarterback and we've, you know, we felt like, hey, look, the backs on our team are some of the better players. Georgia plays coverage. You know, they, they kind of, they, they're defending the pass. You know, most plays they're in an advantage in that regard. So you got to prove you can run it for them to put an extra guy in the box or start pressuring. And then that's what creates opportunities for the throw game. And again, you know, in our league, you know, second and long and third long are tough days, man. So, you know, the, the rush is real. You know, it's the National Football League to some degree. So staying on schedule is a big deal, you know, and I think, you know, if you can prove you can run it, it makes the throw game much simpler, much easier.
- [87:16]
Todd McShay
That's interesting on Georgia with, with their defense. And I'd ask you about the other side of the ball. We still don't know where they are with, with Carson Beck, but, but just a one last one against Texas. And you just touched on it too. You're, you're down to your third string quarterback, but kind of game planning for that and knowing what, you know, against Texas. What do you have to do against Texas to be successful?
- [87:40]
Billy Napier
Well, first of all, you got to tackle well in space. You know, I think the, the skill, the running back, the receiver group, you know, is very unique. I think they're quick, they're elusive, elite speed. You know, I think a lot of the completions are short to intermediate. There's a bunch of run after catch. So your ability to get the guy on the ground, you know, when you get those, you know, they throw it underneath a lot, they throw it to the perimeter a lot. So your ability to get those guys on the ground, we did not do that well. You know, I'd also think that you got to make the quarterback uncomfortable. You know, we weren't able to do that in our game, but I think you got to push the middle of that pocket. You got to hit him, you got to tip balls, you got to affect the guy in general. So sticky coverage affect the quarterback, get him off the spot, get him out of rhythm and then when they do throw it to the perimeter and underneath you got a rally in pursuit and get those guys on the ground. Now defensively, that front seven is stout. So you know, I think ultimately you gotta, gotta try to stay out of second, third, long. And you know, I think it's a race to 30 in our league. That's what I always say, right? 30 points. It's like playing in the National Football League.
- [89:04]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [89:05]
Billy Napier
So you got to take care of the ball and you can't give them anything. Any freebies, make them go the long field. And when you do get it into the red zone, you got to cash it in and get touchdowns and you got to force them to kick field goals.
- [89:19]
Todd McShay
It doesn't feel right. Taking up your time at, at your bowl game in Tampa, getting ready for the Gasparillo bowl versus Tulane to finish talking about Tennessee, Georgia and Texas. So let's take this opportunity. You always get an extra little extra time going into, into a bowl game. There's always, it seems like a player too, whether it's a youngster or a veteran player that's, that's just ready to emerge. There are a couple guys you want to highlight. Just whether it be their effort, their leadership, the promise they're showing guys that, that people nationally might want to just keep an eye on when they're watching this game on Friday. Friday.
- [89:53]
Billy Napier
Well, we're going to have, you know, there's going to be some opportunities for some players to play in this game. You know that typically their role will be a little bit bigger. I think up front we're going to move Cam James to jack and rotate him a little bit over there. I think cam James is six six, 270 pound player that's played F. He's one of our edge players. LJ McRae will get more snaps. He was one of the better defensive linemen in the country last year. Another 6, 6, 2, 6. The true freshman. Those two guys will have a little bit bigger role in the game. I'm excited to watch them. You're going to see Makai, Burrow, Deontre Robinson, Tavares Brown, all three are freshman defensive linemen that I think are going to play a little bit more in this game. And they all have talent. You know, I think they're all big, big time players offensively. You know, Bryce Lovett and Cam Waits are two young offensive linemen that would have a little bit bigger role in the game on the right side. So I'm excited to see them compete in just in general another game, another opportunity for the young quarterback Lagway. So I'm kind of excited to watch some of these young guys play in the game. Some of these guys are going to have more of a role than they've had in the past, and I think it presents a good opportunity to kind of build some momentum and learn from competing in the game.
- [91:23]
Todd McShay
Cool. Well, we're excited, too. We wish you the best of luck. And you know, once again, like anyone who's been around this game long enough to to see how things started and how things could have gone and how many, you know, frequently you can go the other way and get sideways fast. And to see what you did this year, just truly appreciation for that for you and for your staff, for your family. Hanging in there like everyone involved. Just really appreciate what, what you did this year and wish you the best of luck and look forward to talking to you soon. Billy.
- [91:54]
Billy Napier
Okay. Todd, Steve, thank you guys so much, man. Appreciate the opportunity.
- [91:58]
Todd McShay
You got it. Luck, coach. Good luck, coach.
- [92:01]
Billy Napier
All right. Yeah.
- [92:02]
Todd McShay
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