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The McShay Show
CFP Semifinal Preview: Penn State–Notre Dame and Texas–Ohio State. Plus, the Patriots Fumble the Top Pick and Talking Titans QB Options
01:28:21
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- [00:00]
Todd McShay
It's the McShay show, presented by FanDuel. It's time for the first 12 team playoff and you can bet on all of the action with FanDuel. Just think about all the opportunities we're going to have to bet on the College Football Playoff. We're talking about different conferences, home games for certain teams, the three or four week run that you're going to have to play. There's so much to earn if you're betting with FanDuel this College Football Playoff season. Why we love FanDuel why we there's so many markets like spreads over unders, national championship futures, and so much more. This app is safe, secure and easy to use. When you win, you'll get paid instantly. Visit FanDuel.com McShay to download America's number one sportsbook. The Ringer is committed to responsible gambling. Visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and help lines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 and older and present in select states. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com well, the Patriots spit away the number one overall pick.
- [01:13]
Steve Levy
Yeah, they find ways to lose even when they win, man.
- [01:16]
Todd McShay
Listen, there are more questions than answers. Also at the quarterback position in this year's class. Plus Penn State, Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State. It's the College Football Playoff semifinals and the NFL playoffs are here, too. Not to mention the top of the order is finally set with just 107 days until the NFL draft. Mensch, you good?
- [01:39]
Steve Levy
I'm good, man.
- [01:40]
Todd McShay
All right, here we go. Cheer me up. We're acutely aware of what goes on inside a football building, right? M like, yeah, it's a bubble. You're purposely isolated. You want the only messaging that you get as a football player to be from the coaching staff. The blinders are on, right? And so what happened with the New England Patriots and winning this final game and losing the number one overall draft pick? It's not shocking in that every player that's on that field is playing to win. They're playing to win. For themselves, for their families, for their teammates. They're playing to put good tape out there in the in the universe, if you will, for their own coaching staff, the next coaching staff, if they're free agents, the possibility and opportunity to go play somewhere else. So it's no one is ever going to tell a football player to go out and give 75% find a way to lose. It's just not how it works. And the coaching staff's the same. Like, you're not going to tell Gerard Mayo, you're not going to tell Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator, hey, come up with a scheme that's just not going to quite work, right? No, you're just not going to do it. That's why this is a top down situation. It was a top down situation for the New England Patriots going into week 18, game 17. Knowing that we have, we currently possess in our hands the number one overall pick. It's up to us to maintain that number one overall pick. We have two assets in this organization. The first is Drake May. And it's the hardest asset to find for an NFL team. Finding your quarterback and getting him young. It's one thing to have a guy on a second contract where you're paying him and it's killing your, your salary cap. It's another to have it a rookie and he's taking up a fraction of your con of your salary cap because the rookie contracts and the collective bargaining agreement that occurred several years ago, that put a cap on that. And so it's one thing to kind of tank a season. You think back to major league, you know, and we've seen it in previous years like, all right, let's not chew up a lot of salary cap which the Patriots didn't. They have the largest salary cap in, in, in the NFL. It's a. And we'll get to that in a little bit. It's another thing, Steve, to have to lose one game, that becomes trickier. But the Kansas City Chiefs did a beautiful job of doing it. I mean, did you see that list of players that did not play for the Chiefs? Right. In addition, did you watch that game against the Broncos? And I'm not saying they were purposely trying to tank, but they were purposely protecting their organization in not starting all of those players, making sure they got the rest, throwing out cover two and cover three all day long, not blitzing. Very vanilla offensive game plan. Denver just rolled through them.
- [05:03]
Steve Levy
Yeah, they understood the assignment. They got what they needed to do.
- [05:07]
Todd McShay
The organization, though, understood the assignment. It's not the 52, 53 players that were dressed, playing in that game. It's not their assignment. I want, I want to be perfectly clear. Yes, Drake May did not start, as I mentioned last week. He should not start the final game. Patriots need this first pick. Okay. But the organization didn't do enough. And by that I mean from the top down. Robert Kraft, the owner, the Kraft family, everyone involved at the top did not do Enough to make sure they secured that number one overall pick. And you say, well, how could they have done it? Well, yeah, start. Not starting. Drake May was, was part of it. And obviously Joe Milton goes out and has a phenomenal game, and that adds some, some value. I mean, no one expected him to have one of the highest QBRs in the entire NFL season this year. Like, it just, it didn't. It. But, but if you know and you can't tell me during 2Q1 of 1 of the better performances the Patriots had all season long that Robert Kraft is up there writing out, typing out to his, you know, his, his assistant, hey, let's dictate a press release. I don't like what's going on in the field. It's not what happened. The press release was written. The decision was made. Gerard Mayo was not going to be the head coach of the New England Patriots after this season, and Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator, was not going to be the offensive coordinator moving forward. So why are they coaching in this game?
- [06:36]
Steve Levy
Right, that's, that's the biggest question I have. I mean, why not let them go? Because again, they are even more motivated now to stick it to, you know, maybe that's not the way of saying it, but like, you know, have a great performance, they're looking for their next job. They're. That motivation is that much higher. Why not get rid of them? I don't, I, I really don't understand if you're already going to make that move. And, and don't tell me. I have a really hard time buying the fact that Gerard Mayo didn't have some kind of sense that that might be it. Don't tell me that he was, he was coaching thinking that he was going to be there with the Patriots long term. He just living in this area. I, you know, I'm in Southern New Hampshire. I'm in Patriots country. You knew from the local coverage that he was in trouble. The, all of, all of the smoke. There was a lot of smoke about him not being back next year. So he had an idea that this could be it. So he's not thinking about what's best for this team long term. You got, I look at it, you have to make that move. You have to let him go before this game. And just so this doesn't happen, this cannot.
- [07:40]
Todd McShay
And whoever you're putting in position, you're not saying, please go out and lose the game. You're. You're elevating someone on the staff who has an understanding that let's go out. Let's play hard. Let, let's, let's put a product on the field that, that we're proud of in terms of effort. Let's give the opportunity to a bunch of young guys maybe that haven't played in these, these roles as starters or, or sub package and let's see what we got. This can be a very helpful game in terms of evaluating tape on who we want to keep moving forward. But let's also, let's go out there and do what the Chiefs did offensively and defensively from a scheme standpoint so that we're seeing what we got on the field, we're giving great effort, but we're not going to go and put our, our most creative offensive or defensive performance on the field. I, I go back to this and, and I want to, I want to preface it with, like, this was a rare once in a lifetime opportunity. It was. You know, at the time, Bryce Young appeared to be, you know, and, and, and for a while this season, Bryce Young did not appear like he's the guy. It looked like an epic disaster for the Carolina Panthers. But, you know, as the season progressed and he came back in as a starter, it looks like he could be their guy. But at the time, that's all that, all that matters. At the time, Bryce Young appeared to be a really promising quarterback prospect that the Carolina Panthers thought that they could build their organization around. Okay, but it's not like it was last year's class with Caleb Williams, right, and Jaden Daniels and Drake May and even JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix and Michael Penix. But you don't have to go far back to figure to get the most recent example of a team having the first overall pick in the Chicago Bears and what the trade value turned out to be. It was an epic haul. And I'm not saying the Patriots sitting at one with Shador Sanders and Cam Ward would get, would get the identical haul, but it was a hell of a haul. And the Patriots may have, and we'll get in the quarterbacks in a minute, may have gotten a really good haul. Not same level, but a really good haul to get out of that number one pick. If there was a team like the Titans or the Browns or the Giants or the Raiders or the jets or the Saints that tried to move up and I just want to go back and again, I'm not saying they would have gotten this, but they would have gotten a lot. In all likelihood, you go back to 2023, just a couple drafts ago, the Bears move out of that number one spot and they, they move back from one to nine. So they get the ninth overall pick in that 2023 draft. They get a second round selection in that draft. So now they've got two, two second round picks. It was a 61st overall pick, which originally was the 49ers. So now you're picking at nine and 61. They got a first round pick in the next draft, which is 2024, and a second round pick in this upcoming draft. And yeah, it hasn't turned out to be as great as we thought at the time, but they also got D.J. moore, potentially a number one wide receiver. That's a lot, man. And the Patriots wouldn't have gotten that probably, but they would have gotten, probably, they would have gotten, you know, they would have swapped first rounders. They probably would have gotten like a second this year and, and maybe a first next year. Whether, even if it was moving down like a couple spots.
- [11:08]
Steve Levy
Yeah, it's simple math. You're going to get more for one than you are going to get it for four. Like, even if it's not that hall, I mean, you just, by moving that far back, you really limit what you can get in a trade. I mean, it's just that simple.
- [11:23]
Todd McShay
And listen, I, I, I, I, I'm sure there, there are a bunch, bunch of people listening and watching who are like, get over it. Who cares? You know, you guys live in New England. I, I haven't rooted for the Patriots since I was like 17 years old. Okay, man, maybe 20. It's, it's not about new. This. If this could have been the Cardinals, the Jets, the Giants, the Eagles, it could have been any team, you know, and we'd be having this conversation because it's awkward and, and I started this whole conversation out with, we've been in the building, not in the NFL, but in college and high school. Like, you know how it works. No one is ever talking about we got to find a way to lose this game. It's not how it works, but there are ways. If you know, as an organization leader in, in business, sports, whatever, if you know that you're not moving on with the leadership that you have hired, then why put them out there in the most important situation for building this organization, Organization moving forward, forward also sit anyone.
- [12:25]
Steve Levy
Who has so much as a hangnail. Sit them all. I know they sat Hunter Henry and Christian Gonzalez, two of their better players.
- [12:32]
Todd McShay
Well, Christian Gonzalez was coming off of a, he was in concussion protocol, but.
- [12:36]
Steve Levy
Yes, okay, so at least, you know, there was those but anyone who has so much as a hangnail that is of, of importance to you, you sit them because you, you do it under the guise of, look, we need to protect these guys long term. God forbid one of these guys goes out and gets an ACL or tears an Achilles or, you know, something like that. We need to protect our ass next year. I mean, there were so many guys that they, I mean, I, I, they, I would have sat so many more players and they just didn't, they chose not to do it.
- [13:04]
Todd McShay
So, I mean, we can sit here and we can, we can bash it. Listen, Robert Kraft has done, done a lot of phenomenal things. And like, we grew up with the Patriots before Robert Kraft was in control of all this and like, mess, mess. So like, like the utmost respect. The crafts brought me in. I, for several years did the NFL draft they had for their season ticket holders. I would go down to New England in April and do a draft preview for their season ticket holders. I met Robert Kraft. I actually, it's a funny story. I, the first time I met Robert Kraft, I was there getting ready, you know, in my suit, getting ready to do a draft show and a draft event for the pre draft event for the Patriots. And, and I'm standing there, I'm cutting it up with Brusi, right? Teddy Brusi and I were talking, we become good friends over the years, working at ESPN together. And Robert Kraft comes up and, and Teddy and I are in the middle of a conversation and Teddy sees Robin. They give each other a big hug. Hadn't seen each other in a little while. And, and Teddy politely introduces me. I'm not sure if you guys have met. Ms. You know, Mr. Craft, this is, this is Todd McShay. He goes, oh, no, I'm, I'm well aware of who this is. And I was like, oh, I'm in trouble because, oh, I'm well aware who this is. And we just kind of paused and he looked at me, you know, he looked at Teddy. He wasn't even really looking at, you know, like, wasn't, he wanted to set. It was messaging. He purposely was not looking at me. He's looking at Teddy and he says, this is the guy who's going to come in and tell us all the things we've done wrong in the draft and all the things we should do in this draft to get our fan, our fan base all upset. And I was like, oh, boy, oh, boy. And Teddy jumped into his, his credit and it was like, no, no, no, he, he's one of Us like puts in the work, has respect. You know, he'll, you can trust him that he's going to do, do the right thing. And, and he kind of calmed down. And from that point on, we were, we were good. But, but I'm not saying this like I'm not sitting here and bashing Robert Kraft and the Kraft family. I'm truly not. I'm just saying it, it jumped out at me. It struck a chord that if you know you're going to move on from leadership, it's probably, it's the right thing to do. So prior to, but it's not how they chose to do business. And here we are. So, so let's move on from this. The draft order is in at the top. I think the first 18 teams, non playoff teams. The draft order is in. And for our purposes it's the thing in terms of now we know the team's picking at the top. Excuse me. And, and here you, if you're, if you're watching on YouTube and I'll stop down here and just say our numbers on YouTube have, have been skyrocketing recently and we recognize part of it is just we're getting closer to the draft and that's kind of our, our core here. But we want to thank everyone who is, who has joined us in the live reaction shows, Tuesdays and Thursday shows. And we just appreciate you being here. Please continue to, you know, to join as we continue to build this thing and like the views are outstanding. We got to get those subscription numbers up. So if, if you're, if you're watching on YouTube, just, just click a button for you for us, if you don't mind. Same with, you know, like subscribe all those sorts of things when you're watching on, when you're listening on, on Spotify, Amazon, where Apple, I should say, wherever you get your, your podcast. So with that said, if you're watching on YouTube, you're going to see the NFL draft order for, for 2025. And it starts with the Titans at one. It goes all the way down. I'll just read it real quick. Cleveland at 2, Giants at 3, Patriots at 4. They go from 1 to 4 with that win. Jaguars at 5, Raiders at 6, jets at 7, Panthers at 8, New Orleans Saints at 9. And the Chicago Bears back in the top 10 at that number 10 spot. We've also put their check mark for all the teams that need a quarterback. Right? Six, I think three, four. Yeah. Six of the top 10 need a quarterback. It's always the case whether it's five or seven or eight. What it's always a case where a higher percentage of, of teams drafting at the top and, and it makes all the sense of the world and having a quarterback need and I, we should mention like literally breaking news. I just got A note from Tucker 1050 that the Titans have fired their GM Ran Carthon. So it's obviously something that we'll, we'll continue to follow. They Titan, they fired Robinson their, their GM a handful of years ago as well. So now like a change in leadership. So we'll see how that all plays out. But with the six of the top 10 teams needing a quarterback, I just keep going back to this match. It's wildly different. Every phone conversation I have, whether it's a gm, a former gm, someone who has been in high ranking official in a personnel department who's now in television or podcasting an area scout doesn't matter. Like the conversations and this is what's different than most years, the conversations with people in the league are vastly different. In previous years, it's like I, I like Stroud a little bit more than I like Bryce Young or I think Jaden is the number one prospect at quarterback. And I had those conversations slightly ahead of, of Caleb, slightly ahead of Drake. Right. This year. The, like, the difference in the converse like some people I talk to are like I just don't trust Shador in his pocket instincts. You know what's so special about him? He doesn't have an elite arm. He's not a great runner and just an okay athlete. Like, but then there are other guys who are like, when I watch the tape, it's so clear the, the progression reads and, and how fast he's able to read Shador Sanders, how fast he's able to go through his progressions, his ability to create and his instincts as a passer when the initial play breaks down, his touch, his accuracy, you know, layering the ball. So like, and then with, with Cam, it's, you know, the offense he's played in, it's progressed. But, but is he ready for the NFL? Love his traits, physical traits, but the nonchalant stuff, we get a lot of lot to work with, to work on with him. He doesn't process as quickly as Shador. The conversations are wildly different from one person to the next. And that's, I don't want to say it's absolutely unique. Like it's happened before, but it, it's, it's rare. It doesn't happen a lot. Usually there's more consistency from one conversation to the next. And I say that with two caveats or two for. For two purposes. The first is I was really. I don't want to say surprise, but it was interesting. It was very interesting. That's the best word I can get. Like it. It really.
- [20:07]
Steve Levy
It packed.
- [20:08]
Todd McShay
Piqued my interest. FanDuel are tremendous supporters here at the McShay Show. FanDuel. I. I looked up and you can only in certain states get the draft. The draft odds. But. But FanDuel had Cam Ward at minus 125, the best odds to be the number one overall pick. Think about that. It's pretty wild. And Shador Sanders at plus 105. Not a big gap between the two. Neck and neck. But. But I. But I also am aware that it was Shador Higher earlier. And. And with the Titans getting that number one pick. And I've heard this. I haven't talked to anyone in Tennessee and it wouldn't have mattered because there's going to be a change in leadership there anyway. But. But it's interesting that all of this buzz about Tennessee and it's not surprising. I want to take people behind the curtain. Like, I've talked to many organizations after the draft. When did you know that that was your guy at quarterback? I think most recently, most famously, talking about Sean Payton with Bo Nicks, it was 17 throws into his pro day. Right. That's later in the process than where we are. That's in April or late March. Okay. I've also talked to Brett Veach and Andy Reid, had very candid conversations with them about Patrick Mahomes. They told me the act, like the app, like, actual backstory of how Brett was annoying. Was. Was annoying Andy Reid and kept like. Was harping on. We got this guy who just finished up. I think it was his freshman year, going into his sophomore year. He's our guy. He's our next. And then throughout his sophomore year, wasn't even eligible and was going into Andy's office three or four times, and Andy finally was like, get out of here. Like, we're talking about like. Like 22 months from now. Like, we got game. A game to prepare for. And he'd be walking to be like, watch this play. You know, so you make decisions organizationally on who your guy is at different portions, you know, depending on the class, depending on what you fall in love with at different portions of the process. And so I don't know if there are a lot of people in the Tennessee organization that that, like, were clear. It was clear cut because like top I know Warner organization. About two weeks ago I talked to a scout and he said yeah, I'm going in in early January for top 32 meetings. I think it was kind of going over the top prospects, whatever, top 32, top 50, whatever it was. So like they're not really even in like definitive meetings yet, but when you know, you know. And so clearly fanduel there's information out there the Tennessee likes Cam Ward more than Shador Sanders. But now that we're just getting this breaking news, general manager for the Titans ran Carthon fire. So how does that change things? Are the odds going to change in a week or so? So the whole thing's fascinating to me. So that's the first thing that's interesting and I want to get your opinion and all your thoughts on this. The second thing that's fascinating to me, vast majority of conversations I have with teams we wouldn't draft this guy in the top 10. We feel bad for teams drafting that need a quarterback in the top 10. This is not the year. It was the year when Stroud and Bryce were there. It was the year last year with my goodness, you know, six guys. Was it six guys in the top 12? Yes, six guys in the top 12. But this is not the year. And the comparisons have been made with the Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis and you know, in that class will Levis all that. I, I, I think it's, I don't know, it's slightly different but, but the, but the concept is there. But almost a lot of people I talk to mentor like no. And I just wonder if it's going to be a little bit more like because we said with Kenny Pickett and Willis and Levis, those guys, they'll quarterbacks climb, they'll go high and they didn't that year. And I just wonder this year if it will be different than that 2022 class with Pickett and Willis and Levis and Corral and all those guys. Or we'll just see what we normally see. The norm is the quarterbacks rise to the top. So what you got, bud?
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Steve Levy
I'm leaning towards that. I feel like it's more like the picket class. I think teams are going to hold their water a little bit more and.
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Todd McShay
Maybe okay, but pull up the graphic again. I hear you. I, I hear you. But Tennessee, Cleveland, Giants top three picks all needed quarterback. And then right behind them at 6 and 7, Raiders and Jets need quarterbacks.
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Steve Levy
So there's a couple interesting things to get into here about how you don't you? I think it's a little narrow minded to say that the only way you can address that position right now is through the draft. I think there's a couple interesting, a few interesting free agents coming out. I think you explore some trade options for some younger guys. I want to ask you this. Would you. What would your market be? Would you take a swing on Aaron Rodgers if he's not in a Jets uniform next year?
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Todd McShay
No.
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Steve Levy
No. The play is falling off too much and the headaches too much.
- [25:19]
Todd McShay
We would, it would have to be in August. Quarterback injured. We have a playoff roster. That's the only way. Too much of a headache. Too, too, too much attention. All the drama that comes with and quite frankly, he's shown some flashes in the last few weeks and, and all that. And, and the hope is, if you're Aaron Rodgers or anyone considering it, that, that the Achilles is more healed.
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Steve Levy
Two years off.
- [25:44]
Todd McShay
Yeah, two years off. And it very likely will be. But, and I'm not saying he's ordinary, but without that mobility and the ability to extend what part of what made him so special and arguably the most talented and best quarterback in the league, though that argument was there even when Tom Brady was playing at a high level. I don't see it anymore. And, and I wonder at 41 years old or whatever, does that come back, you know, depending.
- [26:10]
Steve Levy
Much rather.
- [26:11]
Todd McShay
I'd much rather take. Bring in someone lesser profile, less money and take a chance on. And I, you and I talked about it. I mean I think you, you had some names but like I'm not g. I'm not banking on like a Zach Wilson or a Justin Field Locke or Justin Fields, but to bring him in and compete if we need him and a reclamation project. But here's the thing, like we've seen that this never occurred in the NFL, right? The Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold stuff never occurred in the NFL for decades. For as long as we've been in this scouting, it just didn't. It almost never occurred. And we're starting to see more of it. Geno Smith. Right. We're starting to see guys go to another place. But you're, you're kind of betting on that they had such a terrible situation where they were and then, and then with Baker, remember Baker got some time with McVeigh and that really helped him. And I know it was limited, but he got some time with McVeigh to kind of reset and, and we saw some flashes there. And then Canales did a nice job with him in year one and, and he is, he's taken off. We saw San Francisco Kyle Shanahan helping with, with Sam Darnold for, for a year.
- [27:27]
Steve Levy
Right.
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Todd McShay
Kind of get him right again. It was like I always say, like the injured bird and like nursing him back to health, you know, and then passing them along. Yeah, passing them along to it. And they, they've both gone to places that have been, you know, have had a certain level of commitment to him, but more importantly could continue that development. Right. It was like outpatient, you know, and, and, and, and I don't think anyone's arguing that Kevin OConnor is one of the best in the, in the NFL at developing quarterbacks. So you're banking, you've got to have a lot of circumstances that you believe in and you're mostly banking on that. You have the quarterback developer in house to, to do that. But I, I, I do think it will be a part of this offseason.
- [28:09]
Steve Levy
Here, here's what I'm saying to you as a gm. I hear the conversation right? You're talking about you want to win a Super Bowl. You are looking for long term success. I think the real conversation that we have right now is that there is a lack of talent at the quarterback position right now and you're looking to bridge a gap until some of these younger college quarterbacks. So I think our, you know, Nico from Tennessee, there's some guys that are gonna be coming out. I think they're gonna be raiola.
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Todd McShay
Yeah, bridge a gap and in the meantime, hope you strike gold and be.
- [28:38]
Steve Levy
Competitive and maybe strike gold. But you're looking to strike gold. I, I think you're managing your assets differently with that approach. If you're taking a realistic, logical approach to this, you're saying to yourself, do I really want to use a top five pick on a quarterback that maybe, that maybe is going to do well, or do I want to go after a guy that can make us maybe competitive for the next couple years? So, and address other holes in my roster. So one, we're in a better position to maybe attract that, that, that free agent quarterback later on. And two, you haven't wasted that high draft pick. You, you've used it wisely. And to me, that's kind of what I'm looking at. So I'll just turn it, I'll turn it around to you right now. Tennessee just called. They love the pod. They want to hire you as their gm. What are you doing with pick one right now?
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Todd McShay
It depends on what I've, depends on what I've been able to do. I'm bringing in a veteran regardless. I don't know if it's Drew Locke.
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Steve Levy
Exactly.
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Todd McShay
I'm bringing in a veteran regardless. I'm doing the same thing Minnesota did.
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Steve Levy
Right.
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Todd McShay
Unfortunately, there's. There's not many Sam Darnolds out there. Right. Go back to like Belichick kind of laughing. And I know he, he says a lot of things in spite when it comes to the jets, but, like, he's like. Someone asked him, are you surprised with Sam Darnold? He's like, no. He's like. In fact, nobody in the league was surprised. Except, except the jets in Carolina couldn't resist the shot. Yeah, yeah. But, but, but he's not wrong. Like, he's literally. He's not wrong because everyone I talk to in the league, it's like, God, if Sam just had had the right coaching and the right things around him, we all know his talent level, so I'm going that route for starters. And then. And then we're diving in on. Honestly, here, here's my. Here's my pecking order. We're going out. We're getting a veteran. I'm making damn sure that we've got a. Whoever we're hiring is the. As the next. Well, you're the Titan, so you're not. We're. We're going out. We're getting a veteran, number one. Number two, we're. We're shopping that pick. We're seeing what we can get for it. That's priority number two. Okay. If we don't get anything of value for that pick, because other teams in the, in the league kind of agree with the assessment, right, of the. Of the top quarterbacks. Then you stayed there. And now the really tricky part is, do you take a Travis Hunter over a quarterback? I don't think you do. I just don't think you do. Because. Because you gotta. You gotta take your cuts. And if you're right back there in the situation a year from now or two years from now, then you're right back there, you know? But, yeah, so you're on the clock.
- [31:23]
Steve Levy
What would you do? You got jammed. I'll tell you right now. We're on the clock in this situation. We're on the clock. We got jammed. I would, I would take a guy like Abdul Carter. I think you got to start. I think you got to build up front. I think you. I think. I think he's the best player in this draft. I think he's the most talented. I would take a guy like Abdul Card of The edge out of Penn State.
- [31:44]
Todd McShay
I think a lot of. I don't, I don't disagree. I, I think a lot of people need to go back and study the organizations that have built from the ground up. San Francisco, yeah, you can put it, you could put, you could have put a handful of quarterbacks in there and had similar success. And that's not taking anything away from Brock Purdy. But they were so damn good because of the way they drafted on the defensive line, the offensive line, then plugged in some, some skill guys. Detroit Lions, offensive line, like they were. They were miserable. They were suffering. Pen Sewell, you know, Aiden Hutchinson. Don't we need a quarterback? Yeah, but there isn't one. There isn't.
- [32:20]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [32:21]
Todd McShay
So. So let's do. I agree with you, Brad Holmes, John lynch, go. There's a lot of organizations that you can go back and. Actually, I shouldn't say a lot. There's a handful of organizations that have built this thing the right way. Seattle did back in the day, built this thing the right way. They drafted a quarterback in the third round, turned out to be Russell Wilson, and he was awesome for several years. But when you build the thing the right way, then you can plug in a quarterback from the third round.
- [32:51]
Steve Levy
Right?
- [32:51]
Todd McShay
Plug in Mr. Irrelevant. You can get a retread in Jared Goff that no one believes in. And every year you got to answer questions before and after the draft. If you're, if you're Brad Holmes, why didn't you take a quarterback? I don't know why everyone's saying that. Like, we've got our guy. So I don't disagree with you on that.
- [33:09]
Steve Levy
Yeah, I mean, I feel more comfortable doing that and then getting, signing a lock and then maybe targeting Jackson Dart in the middle rounds. So you bring in a guy who maybe you don't love, but you're getting him at a much later point in the draft and who could be a decent player going forward. I'll say this too, because I'll go on the record right now if you're telling me we're taking a quarterback like men, we're taking a quarterback. Which one are you going with? I'm still going with Sanders, but that gap has closed. I feel like Sanders, over the last five or six games, I don't know what the deal is. I don't know if he's playing it safer, not pushing the ball downfield. Some of the hits that he's taking, even like weird stuff like there's. I'm watching him on tape and he's Got opportunities to get out of bounds and he's kind of being a little lackadaisical. When he gets to the sideline, he ends up taking a hit because of it. The unnecessary contact. For a guy who's that big, who's going to be playing against much bigger and stronger men for more games, it, it does scare me. There are some things that are popping out about Sanders and I thought, you know, if you'd asked me a month ago, I was very comfortable saying that was. Sanders was clearly the number one. I think Ward has definitely closed that gap. Still going with Sanders over Ward, but it's going to be an interesting pre draft process.
- [34:17]
Todd McShay
Yeah, it's, it's the traits of Cam Ward.
- [34:20]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [34:21]
Todd McShay
The very clearly he, he's, he's got a, you know, stronger arm like the arm angles. Neither is a great runner. I'm not but like. But I think Cam, Cam can extend with a little bit more athletic ability, a little more strength. Yeah, it's going to be fascinating. It's going to be fun.
- [34:38]
Steve Levy
Right now, who you got right now.
- [34:41]
Todd McShay
It kind of depends on. It kind of depends on who I am. If I've got a team that can protect and a coach that can, can continue to do well with both. I need a coach that can develop. If I've got a team that I think we've built, we've built our offensive line and can protect. I think I'm going with Shador. I think he's, I don't want to say safer, but I know what I'm getting. I think I know he's a better pure passer in terms of layering the ball, ball placement, all those things. Cam is, is more, a little bit more of a project, but he's got better tools and so that, that's where I am on that. All right, this is fun. It's kind of just, I don't want to say an appetizer, but we're, we're warming up and we're, we're getting there. A couple weeks, this is going to be full blown NFL draft and I'm fired up for it. Like, never before have I or we had the platform to actually do what we do. The behind the scenes, the grunt work, the, the All Star games, the combine, the, the tape watching like four, five, six hours on every single player. 256 draft picks, 400 prospect evaluations. We had so much stuff that we can finally go through. When I was at my last, last spot for 15, 16 years, we were lucky to get to player 50 in the draft. We're going to get to so much more dive in. We've such a just it's just a better opportunity and a better platform, I should say, for diving into more rather than just focusing week in and week out on the top quarterbacks, top skill guys. We've got a lot to cover and I'm fired up for it. And I know you are too. The McShay show is brought to you by FanDuel football fans, Buckle up because for the first time ever, we've got five straight days of playoff football and FanDuel is celebrating with the great playoff payoff. That's a no sweat same game parlay every day for all five days. How about that? With a no sweat sgp, you can combine your bets from the same game for a chance at even bigger winnings. And if it doesn't hit, you'll get bonus bets back. Listen folks, of the two college Football Playoff semifinals, the Texas Ohio State Cotton Boll really jumps out at me. Every part of me as an analyst wants to say take Ohio State minus the five and a half, but I just can't do it. I like Texas. Maybe buy him, get that hook, get it up to six, whatever you have to do. But I'm told that over 80% of the tickets so far are on Ohio State. That means when the public's on one side, go with the opposite side. I also think the fast starts for Texas have been critical, but 143 against Arizona State in the first quarter, 217 second quarter versus Clemson, dominated Georgia in the first half, dominated a and M, so on and so forth. I think Texas is primed to counter that fast start that Ohio State has had in the last two college football playoff games. With a fast start of its own, this is going to be a tight one. Give me the six points. So not only do we get to watch five straight days of playoff football, but that's also five chances to win big. Just visit FanDuel.com McShay that's FanDuel.com McShray it's the great playoff payoff. And it's only on FanDuel. America's number one sportsbook must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 plus and present in D.C. opt in required minimum three leg parlay required refund issued as a non withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified. Restrictions apply including token expiration. See terms@sportsbook fanduel.com gambling problem call 1-800-gambler or visit rg d help.com I'm also fired up for these College Football Playoff semifinals and the first game Thursday night, 7:30pm Eastern time. Orange Bowl. Notre Dame Penn State kind of mirror images in a lot of ways. Physical teams, great in the fronts. Penn State's offensive line has been awesome recently. Defensive line is ferocious. Notre Dame dominant on the offensive line. Defensive, defensively is just really good. Neither team has weapons on the outside. Both teams have to kind of manufacture and create offense and rely on their run game and all, all those things. With that said, Notre Dame start off at minus two and a half on FanDuel I believe now is it minus one and a half. Two Big Questions personnel wise coming into this. Jeremiah Love, running back from Notre Dame. We saw him nicked up in the last game. He is the heart and soul of that Notre Dame offense. Without him or with a limited version of love, I'm concerned. Okay.
- [39:30]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [39:31]
Todd McShay
Love Jadarian Price think he's a, he's one of the great backups in college football and would start at most places high percentage of places in the country. But he's not Jeremiah Love. He's just not. And so that's something that absolutely has to be taken into consideration. Well, we won't get the true answer, you know, until, until game time. But, but oh, apparently Tucker just sent, sent a note over. Notre Dame's back up to minus two and a half. Okay, so Notre Dame back up to minus two and a half in that. I'm glad I, I'm glad I got it in at one and a half. Yesterday I went on my FanDuel app. I knocked that out. So I, I, I took Notre Dame minus one and a half. So I, I got that in before the, before the buzzer, if you will. So though, oh, the other injury. Sorry. Abdul Carter, Penn State right edge rusher. Saw him sideline for a portion of the of the last game. They're deep, they're fast, they're explosive. They've got dudes up front, but none of them is Abdul Carter. Okay. Yeah, that's going to be critically important as well. And again, we're not getting that information out of College Station and James Franklin. So we got to, you know, take your, take your chances. Hopefully you got a source there. Hopefully the you know someone in the, you know a guy. Yeah, someone in the, the training table is giving out information. I, I got that, I got that information from someone in the barber shop on cam or that he was only going to play the first half. It wasn't My directs, it was somebody else, but he. That person got it from someone in the barber shop. That's crazy. You never know where you're going to get your information from. So here's what I want to do. Like, what jumps out to you. You've studied the tape we've watched all season long, a million different angles, but we've also covered a million different angles. When. When Steve mentioned studying the. These teams on tape and preparing for this game, what are you. What, like you're jumping out of your skin? Like, what is most important in this game, in your opinion?
- [41:39]
Steve Levy
When you look at the College Football Playoff and the teams that are left, there's some good safety groups. That Texas group is really good. The Ohio State group, I think is the best. I think it's the best in the country. When you watch these Notre Dame safeties, man, that's a damn good starting tandem between Xavier Watts and a Don Shuler. And I knew about Watts. Watts is a playmaker. He's got 13 picks over the last two seasons. He's a guy that plays over the top a lot. In their scheme, he can do everything. Both of these guys, Shuler and Watts are interchangeable. I want to make that point that they can line up over tight ends. They can play one high, two high, three high, whatever you want to do, jump up and rob her. They play the run well. They're all, they're. They're both very versatile. But Watts is really that traditional free safety in the scheme, and Shuler's more that traditional strong safety. And Schuler's a guy to watch in this game, man, because when you're looking at Penn State, it starts and ends really with, you know, Ty Warren and those running backs, but really Ty Warren and I think Shuler is going to get a. Get some matchups with Warren. And I'm encouraged by the way he played against Delp in the. In the Georgia game. He's very physical in coverage. I do think the Ty Warren's a different animal, but what I'm excited about is that could be a battle back and forth. And now also when Warren runs those seam routes, he's going to see Watts over the top. And Aller's got to be really careful about his touch and timing on those throws because like I said, Watts is a thief. He can make a big play in this game. And the other thing I'll say is Warren's a good blocker. He has some trouble with down lineman, but when he gets up on safeties and linebackers, Shuler's tough, man. He's got some snap in his hands. And the other thing about him is he's really aggressive and instinctive. And you saw it again in the Georgia game where he forced the fumble in the red zone where he shot the gap and blew up the play in the backfield. Shuler's the guy is going to play again closer to the line of scrimmage. So to me, I'm not saying that I think Watts and Schuler can shut down Warren and they better be sound with their angles and they better be sound wrapping up with those two backs. But these are two talented safeties that have a chance to make an impact in that game and really go to war with the best players in the Penn State roster. And that's what's fun about it to me is that they could be a good back and forth and they can they make enough plays to slow down who's really a unicorn in college football this year in Ty Warren and slow down the great Ty Warren enough to give Notre Dame a chance to win this game.
- [43:58]
Todd McShay
Yeah, they'll have the opportunity based off of what we know. And I say that because Penn State is, is only targeted their wide receivers 35% of the time in the passing game. That's the lowest in the power 4. 35. Think about the passing game. Their receivers are only getting targeted. 35. That's 65% going to the tight ends and running backs. That's unusual to say the least. Okay, so with that said, obviously, as you just covered, stopping the, you know, limiting Ty Warren stopping, you know, shutting down kind of the middle of the field and some of the, the, the running back, tight end stuff is critical. But I, I'm saying I, Penn State's or Notre Dame safeties will get the opportunity to be aggressive in run support.
- [44:47]
Steve Levy
Right?
- [44:48]
Todd McShay
Because. Because they, that we know that Penn State's not going to, you know, they're only throwing the ball to the receivers in the perimeter and all that stuff. 35% of the time, it's all about the Penn State run game in this, in this one. To me, it really is that. And I, I talked about it when we did our live reaction show. The offensive line for Penn State keeps getting better. I, I'm. You're the O line guy. But I was obsessed with just how efficient and how, how well they work together in the, in the run game versus Boise State. But this is a different animal than Boise State. Boise State's pretty good up front. This is a different animal with Notre Dame. They are Disciplined. They. They're effective. They. They're strong and stout. Like, it's going to be tougher. What's interesting to me, and I always go back in college football seasons, or NFL seasons for that matter, what changed? Like, when you see something that's different and improved upon, what changed for Penn State? The biggest difference from that Ohio State game on is, Dave, I think they kind of finally came to their. To the realization as a, as a program, all right, let's stop trying to force something that we're not great at, and let's just lean into what we're great at. We've got the best tight end in college football in Tyler Warren. We've got a really good second tight end in Khalil Dinkins, who's probably. Who's a better run blocker. Let's just go to 12 personnel. One back, two tight ends. Let's ramp that up. Let's. Let's just lean into what we're good at. Okay? Let's stop trying to spread teams out and run the football, because they're not buying it anymore. Ohio State didn't buy it, okay? They got away with it against a lesser schedule for a long time, but they, but when Ohio State said, we're not buying it, James Franklin and the offensive staff, they came to a realization like, all right, we've got to win that game in order to do what we want to do this season. So what can we change? Let's lean into what we have. They're using 12 person. I read this from PFF Pro Football Focus. 12 personnel, 58% of the time since the Ohio State game. You just, you see it on tape. They're in. They're in two tight end sets a lot. 58%. That's up more than 20% than what they were the entire season through the Ohio State game. That's a significant difference. Okay, so they're leaning into that. And then the numbers that they get their third in 12, that 58% were in 12 personnel. That's third in the FBS. Their yards per carry since that Ohio State game, 18th in the FBS. 5.7 yards per carry. Explosive runs, first in the FBS, 26 of them. Rushing touchdowns, first in the FBS, 14 of them since that Ohio State game. That's going to be the difference in this game, man. 12 personnel versus those safeties you just talked about. Mano a mano. Line it up. Who's going to win? Who's going to be more effective? Is it. Is it Notre Dame getting off blocks or is it Penn State with their. Their blocking up front?
- [47:53]
Steve Levy
I agree. I mean, that's where it starts, really. I will say on the flip side, Notre Dame's not great at receiver either. Right. But I do think they're better at receiver than Penn State. And are they going to be? Because, listen, if Penn State has a similar performance like they did against Boise State in terms of rallying to the ball, in terms of their tackling, dude, they're terrible.
- [48:16]
Todd McShay
This is the best team in the country. That's a marginal tackling team.
- [48:21]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [48:22]
Todd McShay
They've been atrocious at times, but even in that game where they limited, they. Yeah, but they limited Astron Genti. Listen to this. They limited Ashton Genti to, I think, the season low 104 rushing yards. I think it was. Still had 16 forced missed tackles. Yeah, they rallied, but they also had such a singular focus on. On stopping the. The run. And it's not all that dissimilar against Notre Dame, but.
- [48:49]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [48:49]
Todd McShay
Their defensive line is so disruptive that like, even when they're. Even when the back is forcing missed tackles and they're missing tackles, that the D. The defensive line kind of throws the back off.
- [49:02]
Steve Levy
East West. Right.
- [49:03]
Todd McShay
Gets him East West. And so even if you miss the first tackle, you've got guys rallying because you've stopped. It's not like a Runway where guys are going. There's a lot of stop and start and force, you know, getting lateral and all that.
- [49:16]
Steve Levy
So they need a similar performance to what they did with Genti. I mean, you can give me all the missed tackles. I mean, at the end of the day, they bottled him up. To me, the question will be, will Riley Leonard in those. In those receivers be able to make some plays against, I think a secondary that's a little bit vulnerable if they.
- [49:34]
Todd McShay
Have to match up the number one thing. Good.
- [49:38]
Steve Levy
Right. I'm just interested to see how that unfolds. Go ahead.
- [49:41]
Todd McShay
I was just gonna say, if the number one thing in this is, is can Penn State run the football and that matchup, I would say number two is Riley Leonard's got to make some throws. I don't think he had 100 passing yards in the last game.
- [49:52]
Steve Levy
He did either.
- [49:53]
Todd McShay
And they didn't. They didn't need it. I mean, no, they were just. They were so dominant, so many areas. They. They got big plays and turnovers and. Excuse me, but they had a long reception in that game of 14 yards. Okay. To Jordan, face on. 14 yards. They're gonna need. Like if Face on had a 44 yard reception against Indiana two games ago in the first game of the College Football Playoff. They're going to need a couple of those. Truly. And maybe it's Bo Collins. Maybe. And Face On's their most dangerous receiver. And that's not saying a lot. It's like McElroe V are was it McElreavey, our offensive coordinator at Richmond when he was talking to an NFL scout said, I have the dubious distinction of being the offensive coordinator University of Richmond again. I'm proud to have the job, but I'm not proud of the job we're doing. Jordan Faison kind of has the dubious distinction of being the most explosive wide receiver on a very unexplosive Notre Dame wide receiver core. But I also think it'll be interesting to see because this game is so much about stopping the run and taking away the, the tight ends and the running backs for, for Penn State. Will the Penn State's pass rush be as effective? Like they'll get there. They're going to get there. They, they, they pressure opponents. Penn State does 41% of the time. That's, that's near the top of the nation. Okay.
- [51:25]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [51:26]
Todd McShay
But what's Abdul Carter's status? Their best addresser? That's number one. And number two because so much of the, the attack is that three headed monster in the run game of, of Love Price and Riley Leonard. Are they going to be able to pin their ears back? You know, so getting, getting Notre Dame and obvious passing downs, those sorts of things like all the cliche shit like it will be important. But I just, I wonder, I wonder how big of a factor. It's one of Penn State's best traits, their ability to rush the passer. Would that be neutralized a little bit simply because Notre Dame is not looking to, you know, to go spread things out, narrow it out.
- [52:07]
Steve Levy
Yeah. And you also have to keep Leonard in the pocket. You can't let him start to make plays with his feet and extend drives. And you know, there's that aspect of it too. A little bit of that mush rush where you can't just fly up field against a guy who's more of a pocket passer who's not going to extend plays and get out of that pocket. So there's that aspect of it.
- [52:23]
Todd McShay
Who you got Notre Dame and May and, and there are a couple biases that I'm fully willing to admit.
- [52:33]
Steve Levy
Here we go.
- [52:34]
Todd McShay
I don't trust James Franklin. And for of you out there saying you just hate James Franklin, you hate Penn State, like nah, I mean it's, you know, I've voiced my opinion on all of it but like when it come. This is, this is business. This is business. And with business you make business decisions. And my business decision in part is made on James Franklin. Against top five teams, big pressure games, legit top tier opponents. And Notre Dame has proven that throughout the year and I think put some emphasis on that with the way they not only beat Georgia, but like how they handled Georgia. So that's, that's part of it. And secondly, the recency bias of watching that Notre Dame, they didn't have to empty the bag. They, yes, they had the, the brilliant special teams play where Marcus Freeman, you know, just waited for the perfect moment to, to bring out the offense. They caught him off the sides and threw the ball down the field, got the penalty, extended the drive and, and that was kind of it. But like they still were in complete control at that point. You know, I would, I mean it was, it was attainable for Georgia to come back, but they had controlled that game since like some point midway through the first half. I felt like Notre Dame completely controlled that football game. Also important to me and you can't predict turnovers, but to me this is going to be a close, tight game. I really believe that because they're two very similar teams. It should be a close tight game. Penn State, Penn State has been okay on the season, pretty good on the season with turnovers. We've seen some, some cracks at times, but they absolutely exploited Boise State. I think it was four turnovers in that game. Right, right. But Notre Dame, Notre Dame has done it all year long. 31 takeaways this year. Notre Dame has that's best in the FBS. Just as importantly, Notre Dame has 141 points off of turnovers this year. That's also best in the fbs low scoring game. Turnovers are always feel like they're the difference. I just those three things, I think Notre Dame is, is, is feeling it now. Playing with the most confidence played all year long. Penn State finds what like curious decisions here or there. You know, they do do that. Even the Boise State game, like the timeout, like there's, there's always one or two where you're like really? And so I, I just, my confidence level is higher in Notre Dame because of those three things. How about you?
- [55:08]
Steve Levy
Penn State by three. I look at that Georgia game, I look at that George game a little bit differently than you and I get what you're saying. It never really felt like they were in trouble, but let's be clear about it. I mean, Gunner Stockton was making his first start and they decide with the ball in their own 25 yard line with 30 seconds left in the half to, you know, try to have this kid make a play. Next thing you know, he fumbles. The Penn State's got the ball. I mean, Notre Dame's got the ball at the 13 yard line, go in and score. They get 10 point the end of that half. They got 10 points in less than a minute, basically because of George's inexperience a quarterback. And then you add on the kickoff return. They didn't run the, they didn't run the ball. Riley Leonard made some plays with his feet. Riley Leonard was impressive with the plays he made against that Georgia defense. But I wasn't over. I mean, everyone's talking about Boise State and SMU for Penn State, right? Who have they played? Who have they played? Easiest path. Easiest path. Well, Notre Dame got Indiana and then they got Georgia, a really good Georgia defense and then a Georgia offense that was starting a young kid at quarterback who was trying to make his first start. And I think that showed up at times. There were cracks there. I also worry about the loss of Riley Mills for Notre Dame's defense. I worry about the loss of Benjamin Morrison, which they've had more time to get over. I mean, they've played most of this without him. I get it. But Riley Mills is a big, big deal in the middle. I just feel like Penn State, if Abdul Carter plays again, the. That's the biggest, the biggest injury news hanging over this game. I think Penn State runs the ball well enough and if Abdul Carter plays, they are able to slow down Notre Dame enough and they have more talent. I think if you're looking at the roster, they have more talent. And I think that in a close game like this, Penn State finds a way to come out on top. I think it's gonna be a rock fight though. I think it's gonna be a low scoring brawl and I think it's gonna be fun to watch. If you're into that old school football. I think it's going to be a great game. But I think Penn State ekes it out and it heads to the national championship.
- [57:03]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I mean, the over under, I think is down to like 45 and a half.
- [57:06]
Steve Levy
Yeah.
- [57:08]
Todd McShay
And I think it started like 47 and a half and it's even come down. But. Go to FanDuel@fd sportsbook on on Twitter. Go to FanDuel. I think we gave you a lot there to work off of. If you're following me, you're, you're taking, you're taking Notre Dame minus the two and a half. I think also we've given you a lot of stuff to work off of in terms of like in game, you know, in game stuff and, you know, rushing, rushing lines and all that sort, all those sorts of things. But for the updated odds, obviously, get on your FanDuel app and, and let's, let's take care of some business. Right. Speaking of, of FanDuel Lines, the next game, Friday night, 7:30pm Cotton Ball. Everyone's like, home game for Texas. Yeah, Ohio State's gonna travel. You know, like, maybe it's 60, 40 at best, but I, that I'm not putting a ton of stock a little bit, but not a ton of stock into that. Ohio State, we saw it at 6 at one point on FanDuel. It is now kind of locked in for the last couple days from what I've seen at five -five and a half, Ohio State's favor by five and a half points versus Texas, 7:30pm very next night. And a reminder after, after the Orange Bowl, Thursday night, live reaction show. Once the second the game's over, we'll get into that. We'll start talking obviously about, about the potential of next matchup, who's playing. But, but mostly just break down what happened in that first game, Notre Dame versus Penn State. I'm sure we're gonna have a ton to talk about. So join us on YouTube after the game for that. And then again, we're back the very next night. No rest this week, Mitch. Friday night, we'll be right after this game, the Cotton bowl back on YouTube live reaction show like, literally once the game's over, well, give us like 5 minutes to get set up. Stop yelling at us. I know McShay's always ladies on McShay time. Like, I got it. But it takes a minute to like, walk from the living room up here, click some buttons, put the headset on, make sure men should. Good. Yeah, I'm good. And then, and then it takes from the second we're sitting there. Ready? It takes about three minutes or so. That's why you hear the music in the beginning. So please join us. We're looking forward to that. It's going to be two fun shows on Thursday night, Friday night following these semifinal games. But Ohio State -5 and a half, Texas. I'll start this one.
- [59:29]
Steve Levy
Okay.
- [59:32]
Todd McShay
To me, this is about the dudes. This game is about the dudes. And it's freaking rare that Texas gets on the field defensively and they don't have the best freshman on the field with Colin Simmons, their edge rusher who keeps getting better every week. Man, he's freaking terror. I love. But. But there's been no more important player in this College Football Playoff. You could say the best one game. Cam Scatter. Boo for. For Arizona State in a loss. He won MVP in that game against Texas. But the most important player so far in the College Football Playoff has easily, in my opinion, been Jeremiah Smith. It's not even my opinion. Like, get out of here. Against two top. Against two top 30 past defenses in Tennessee and Oregon, by any metric you want, they're. They're very good. They're in top 20, top 30 somewhere in that range. Past defenses Tennessee and Oregon. Listen to These numbers match. 13 catches, 290 yards and four touchdowns.
- [60:32]
Steve Levy
Unreal.
- [60:33]
Todd McShay
Unreal. And. And so much of it has been the departure from. We're going to line up and pound it. We don't care if it's Michigan with the, you know, the best defensive tackle tandem in. In the country. We got to run the football. This was Chip Kelly. Chip was brought in to, you know, exercise his run game. But I talked about the difference in personnel groupings to the 12 personnel for Penn State. What's been different since that Ohio State game? Well, for. For Ohio State, what's been different since Michigan. Two things. One has been they are running counter more. They are fizz. Like they're. They're. Instead of being that Chip Kelly zone team where you're moving in unison, they have incorporated counter, which has become so much more part of the college football and NFL running landscape, if you will, to make that kind of shift after the regular season. And to be as. Remember we were talking about like it was the first game or second game. I forget Ohio State, one of the two college football playoff games, I think it was Tennessee and certainly against Oregon. Like, more misdirection at the snap of the ball. Guards and tackles countering. Right.
- [61:44]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [61:44]
Todd McShay
And it's been effective. So that's been something that they've done that. That obviously in this game Texas is going to have to deal with. They have not. I actually there's another thing I read on Pro Football Focus. Like they've only faced like 80 or 50 or 80 somewhere in that range. Snaps of counter this year.
- [62:01]
Steve Levy
Just crazy.
- [62:02]
Todd McShay
Yeah. So not that they're not. They were apparently really successful in those snaps, but they haven't. They're not used to probably the amount that he's that Chip's going to throw at them. But but much more importantly the focus has been for Chip Kelly in this offense for Ohio State. We've got to get for the football and yes it's yes it's more aggressive in the passing tack in general and they've got like when you've got the best player in college football and Jeremiah Smith and you also as his as his counterpart Amica Abuka, depending on who you talk to in the NFL is either going to be a late first round pick or like top 40 picks overall. You get potentially two first rounders and a guy who would be the first pick in this year's draft, next year's draft presume possibly and maybe in 2027's draft when he's actually eligible. Eligible. Sorry. They've done the right thing and they my goodness, they're more dangerous. So here's the thing. I want you on Friday night as you're getting ready the highlight of the night will be joining mention I on the on the reaction show after this game. But the the the appetizer to that is I really want you to have all your drinks on the table, a cooler set up in the living room, appetizers laid out and scheduled. You don't need chip runs and all that. Especially when Ohio State's on the ball because this is a rarity, man. This is a luxury. We are being afforded the best matchup in the entire college football season with the Ohio State passing game as it currently is humming versus the best pass defense in college football. And I say that also with the caveat that Texas is not a man to man team. This is going to be a different animal. And yes, Jeremiah Smith and the numbers are good and you can look at the analytics and the metrics and all that. They're good versus zone like they but let's not kid ourselves. They were they absolutely annihilated Tennessee in man to man coverage and they did so in opportunities that yes, they created some stuff versus zone but it was all about Jeremiah Smith taking advantage of of personnel at differentials. Texas, I just love watching this Texas secondary. They've got dudes don't get me wrong today Barron's a stud. Their best three cover guys in the back end are Baron, Andrew Makuba and Michael Taft. And they've got a bunch of other I told you last week it feels like they have 12 different safeties who are supporting the run making plays and coverage. But Texas is in zone over 80% of the time. It's all about eyes and instincts. Squat and drive, baby. Like, they are so good at what they do. They're so good at what they do. So this is an opportunity to just sit back and watch what I think is the best matchup we've been afforded literally the entire college football season.
- [64:53]
Steve Levy
Right. And it comes down to, I have no concerns about the skill players for Ohio State. Can, Will Howard continue to play at a high level? Can that offensive line continue to play at the high level that it's played at so far? And there's, you know, there's really no reason to believe that they can. I mean, they've, they've faced Tennessee and Oregon. They didn't have the, the Boise State and SMU matchups. They've played two quality opponents and have played really well. So I'm not, I'm not, you know, playing the card of, you know, earlier in the year I was very critical of Will Howard. I'm not saying that, but they need to continue to do what they've done over the last two games for, for Ohio State to have success.
- [65:29]
Todd McShay
What jumps out to you?
- [65:30]
Steve Levy
I'm going to flip side. You know who I'm going to talk about. You know, it's, I mean, listen, I texted you right away. I was like, look man, we could talk about a million things in this game, but you know, I want to talk about Caleb Downs. And you're like, yo, for it, you know, let's not overthink it, right? So I'm watching Caleb Downs and listen, we've seen him earlier this year. It was awesome watching him go against Ty Warren when Ohio State played Penn State and the one on one matchups they have, he can shut down or lock down the best tight end in the country. He's, he's capable of that. He could play center field over the top. He's got that kind of range. But there's. Watching the tape over the last two games, something that I've just really enjoyed is how Jim Knowles is using him. And, and when they go with too high looks and they are not playing as one of the two high safeties, they've got Hancock back there and they've.
- [66:19]
Todd McShay
Got Ransom, Jordan Hancock. Yep.
- [66:21]
Steve Levy
Yeah. And what they're doing with downs and.
- [66:23]
Todd McShay
Hancock was a cornerback that they moved to that, that frees right.
- [66:26]
Steve Levy
He's kind of that nickel and they're almost swapping him. And let me explain. One of the looks is Downs is essentially playing inside linebacker. Essentially. I say because he's about 8 yards deep the linebacker, he's in between that linebacker and safety depth. And what that really does is it allows him to keep everything in front of him, but still puts him closer to the line of scrimmage. So he's reacting to the run that much faster, he's breaking on underneath passes that much faster. And the other thing they're doing with these two safety, two high safety looks is they're lining him up at linebacker depth just with inside leverage on the safety. So any of those drag routes, any of those in breaking routes, he's already in a great position to play the ball. And two things that jump out to me in terms of what that means in this game is when you watch that RPO throw to, to Matthew golden, that long throw to start Texas, you know, to spark Texas offense in that, in that last game against Arizona State, that is a much tougher throw to make with downs in that kind of an alignment with him sitting in that window, it's a much tighter throw to make. And the other thing about it, and this is one of downs great strengths, is his range against the run, how fast he closes, his ability to break outside when you have that inside linebacker spot and Texas is trying to run that outside zone. Good luck, man. Yeah, that defensive line in front of him. Good luck, man. He closes so fast and he is so physical. I mean, I watched him, he took a, what I think is a bad angle in that Penn State game against Singleton where he went inside out instead of fighting over the top. And Singleton is an explosive runner, man, and Downs was still able to get there and make that play. So I think both in terms of the run and the pass or what Texas wants to do in terms. Also the other thing that I love about when he's inside the slot, you try to run those screens, those quick hitters to the outside that I think Texas wants to, you know, kind of get their offense going. Downs will blow those up, man. He will throw the blockers into the backfield. He will beat blocks, he will close. I just think when you're looking at him in that alignment, when, when Ohio State goes too high, watch for downs underneath and the kind of impact he can make in this game.
- [68:35]
Todd McShay
These are two teams that at some point during the season that we have both said, they, they leave me wanting.
- [68:43]
Steve Levy
Right, right.
- [68:44]
Todd McShay
Ohio State in certain games and especially after the Michigan game, they, they just, they, there's so much talent. They got all this fourth and fifth year players on the defensive side, all these second, third, fourth rounders and maybe you sprinkled in one or two first rounders, but they're not playing like first rounders all the time. It just left you wanting.
- [69:05]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [69:05]
Todd McShay
Texas. Still to this day, every game I watch, there's brilliance and then there's leave you wanting. There's. We, you know, there's more in there. For Ohio State, the last two games, all the stuff that we felt like, I know there's more in there. It's come out right. Yeah, Texas, I still have that feeling. But why is Ohio State. I mentioned on the offensive side some of the things. But on the defensive side for Ohio State, that's one very specific transition or difference in the College Football Playoff. Like Hancock played, I think it was 89 snaps at free safety the entire season prior to the playoff. And he's played 79 snaps in the first two games of the College Football Playoff at free safety. That's one thing that's different. But I'll just like simplify the easier thing to see on tape. 44, 33 and 91, they've been there 100 years combined fair. And they, and we've always talked about them. Are they first rounders, are they second rounders? What are they? Because we know the talents there. They're not elite edge rushers, but they're damn good football players. But I want to see a little more. Right. Ty Lee shows flashes, but I want to see a little more dominance. They've, they've played as previously advertised and what we thought that they could be these last two games. My goodness. JTT Jack Sawyer, like, good, good luck getting outside and running on them and more violence and like just down to down nastiness as pass rushers. Okay.
- [70:36]
Steve Levy
Yeah.
- [70:37]
Todd McShay
And, and Ty Leak has been dominant on the inside and there's been some other guys too.
- [70:42]
Steve Levy
He's been unreal.
- [70:43]
Todd McShay
He's been unreal. And I look at this Texas offensive line and you said it, you know, one point we were bashing like lsu, all these first rounders, they're not playing to their, you know, to what they're expected to be. There are several offensive lines that just weren't playing up to snuff in college football this year. But you always kind of said, look, don't, don't lump Texas in there. They've played well. But the last, the last few weeks we've seen some, some cracks.
- [71:08]
Steve Levy
Yeah.
- [71:09]
Todd McShay
Cam, Cam Williams, Cameron Williams, the right tackle, dinged up some mental errors from Both Kelvin Banks Jr. Who's, who could be the first offensive tackle taken in April. We've seen some mental errors. We've seen Kelvin Banks in and out of the lineup being dinged up. Cameron Williams out of the lineup, didn't play last week. That's going to be fascinating to watch because Texas is going to have to win in the trenches, I think, to win this game. Yeah.
- [71:36]
Steve Levy
As much as I've liked Texas's offensive line, there have been problematic games. Right. The Georgia games are, are problematic and that's against, you know, the best front they've faced. So here we go again. Can this offensive line that I think is really talented and is played at a high level at times, can they elevate? Are they healthy? Is Cameron Williams healthy enough? It looks like he's going to play. It's encouraging. Is he healthy enough? He's a better run blocker than Goosby who comes in and is saw is a solid backup. But they're not the same without those two offensive tackles in the lineup. So it'll be interesting to see if they can elevate their play against a defensive front that's playing with its hair on fire. And by the way, not only you, not only do you have to worry about those guys, the linebackers, Styles and Simon for Ohio State are all over the place right now. I mean, they are.
- [72:24]
Todd McShay
I told you last week, like there are two players that I know for sure. I need to go back and reevaluate based off of my, my preseason and early season tape study. They're different dudes right now, man.
- [72:36]
Steve Levy
Right. They are, they are fast, they are physical. They, they are angry. I mean, that whole Ohio State team is playing angry and you just see with the way they're playing now. I will say this. I do think that there's. That, that Texas is going to have to attack deep and their ability to hold up long enough to do it will be interesting. But I do think there's opportunities to either get a big play or draw a pass interference. I think they can attack those corners and they need to, they need to get Ohio State to back off because if they start dinking and dunking, they, it's going to be like a Starks feeding frenzy with that Ohio State defense. It's going to be a lot of three and outs, I think. So they're going to have to take some shots downfield like they did with some success in the, in the second Georgia game. So that to me will be one of the matchups that one of the really only areas that I feel really good about, the matchups for Texas, the Texas offense against Ohio State defense going in this game's on yours, no question in my mind.
- [73:41]
Todd McShay
This game is on Quinn. Yours and Quinn Ewers is well documented. You talk about leaving you wanting all season long since that Michigan game. Yes, he had the oblique injury. He had the ankle injury. We can make excuses. I've said very clearly. I can see Steve Sarkeesian, the head coach and offensive play caller has protected him, has guided him along, put him in positions to succeed but not forced him to tap into everything that he's got. If we get the Quinn Ewers that we saw second, third, early fourth quarter against Arizona State and that we've seen in a lot of the middle of games throughout this year, Texas isn't going to win this game if we get the Quinn Ers we've seen on first, the first 10:15 play calls off the script and when there's been urgency when there's a when there's no choice in the matter and it's up to Quinn whether it's a huge drive in in the fourth quarter to to get a lead back extended, whether it's Arizona State when the game was on the line, you know, trying to get overtime and win that game in, in double overtime. There has got to be urgency in Quinn Ewers game and in Steve Sarkeesian play calling for four quarters that we have not seen all season long. That's their only chance to win this game. Matthew golden has stepped up. Dude, he has been, he's, he's eclipsed 65 receiving yard. He eclipsed 65 receiving yards just once in the first 10 games this season. Season. That's when they were trying to feed it to Isaiah Bond. Didn't know who they were, maybe didn't know what they had in golden. But Bond has been was a disaster when he was still on the field in the last couple of games and has been injured since and has not played and so for the last five times that Texas has taken the field, he's eclipsed 65 receiving yards including 162 against Georgia and 149 against Arizona State. That's our guy. Okay.
- [75:39]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [75:40]
Todd McShay
But beyond that you've got Gunner Helm at tight end who's not the most explosive but he is a reliable. Like when you need him on third downs and in big situations, he's there for you. You got Ryan Wingo who's got to step up and provide me more than one or two catches. He's got to couldn't agree more with you because he's that's on Sark and to a certain degree that's on Wingo. You're not a freshman anymore but like it's time to go. You got 15 games under your belt. It's time to go. And and you've got DeAndre Moore Jr. Who has been a very good compliment. He's not a huge difference maker but a very good like running his routes, getting in and out of breaks compliment. On the other side of of Matthew golden, the only chance that Texas has to pull off this upset, not the only but the the clearest path I see is they got to come out aggressively. They've got to attack like they have in the first 15 to 25 plays on the script and they, they've got to bring it to Ohio State. They've got to Ohio State's biggest personnel weakness in this game. You just said it and I'm going to reiterate it. Those corners, they're big, they're physical, good and run support. But they are exploitable for a lack of a better word.
- [76:52]
Steve Levy
Agree.
- [76:52]
Todd McShay
They're vulnerable. If you can utilize your quickness and your speed and your athleticism that you have, I don't know if Isaiah Bond's going to finally step in and and be ready to actually go. We played, you said a few snaps you saw him on the field made no impact. Against Arizona State that certainly could add But I also am not going to put him in there and start forcing the ball to him because I've got my guy in golden. We've got Wingo who we need more out of. We've got DeAndre Moore who I just mentioned so that that could be an added element for them. But this is, this game is on Quinn Ewers and it's on Steve Sarkeesian to force Quinn Ewers into a mindset that it's fourth quarter, we're down by four every I don't care if they're up 10. I don't care if they're Up 17. It's fourth quarter, we're down By 4. We need this drive every time because they're not going to be able to run the football effectively. We've seen it. There have been a couple games. There have been a couple games. We saw Contravian Wiser come out like 200 yards right around there. Rushing yards against Texas A and M. But this is not Texas A M. This is an unbelievably stout, disciplined team that what they do best is contain the outside and what Texas needs to be successful run the football is that outside zone ain't gonna work. So who do you got?
- [78:10]
Steve Levy
I I mean, I got Ohio State. I do think that Texas could cover. I went 28, 24. I just feel like Texas's defense plays with enough pride. Sark finds a way to try to keep it close. It wouldn't be surprising if it was a backdoor cover. I feel really comfortable about Ohio State winning this game and, and my. The analyst side of me says that they should cover comfortably, but my gut is telling me that the Texas finds a way to keep it a little bit closer than maybe people think.
- [78:40]
Todd McShay
Yeah. It's funny when. When we start talking about FanDuel and start talking about, you know, patting our. Our bank accounts and, and doing all the. The fun stuff, it's literally like two different brains.
- [78:51]
Steve Levy
Right?
- [78:52]
Todd McShay
It really is. Like, on the field, as you study the last two games, you study some trends and the personnel, all that stuff, Texas is clear. I mean, Ohio State is clearly has been the better team, but there's been no team all season long that Ohio State has faced that has had as much talent as Texas. Okay. And when you're. When you're evaluating who you're going to take, when you get on your FanDuel app and you're trying to. Trying to, you know, get your baby girl a new pair of shoes, you got to look at like, okay, what. What's important? Well, first of all, it's. It's at five and a half. Buy it to six if you got to, or wait to see if it gets back to six. I want Texas with the six. The second thing is I've got some information, some from. From some people that 82% of the tickets so far have been on. On Ohio State.
- [79:44]
Steve Levy
Wow.
- [79:45]
Todd McShay
And I think the recency bias and how they've played in the last couple games and how Texas is kind of sputtered and just kind of crashed and burned its way into the Runway. They landed. They're here. But like, that plane. We're not flying that plane for, like, four months while it's in the hangar, you know, but that's how it feels like, yeah, they're here, but I don't know. But this team's loaded. And Sark, as an offensive play caller will. Will have it ready, and they will find the holes in that too high safety look, and they'll find ways to exploit it. They will. A couple other things that stand out to me, if you're going to trust Texas, trust that defensive line. They've been absolutely dominant the vast majority of this year. Ohio State, for all of its greatness the last couple of weeks, if you Go back the last three weeks. They're giving up pressures. Okay, 34 pressures in their last three games. So that's been different. But it's also because they haven't thrown the ball more, but they're taking more deep shots. So.
- [80:43]
Steve Levy
Right.
- [80:43]
Todd McShay
It's understandable. But that offensive line, you. Is gettable. That offensive line is gettable. They played great the last couple weeks, but it's gettable. And Texas is averaging 17.2 pressures per game. They had 31 pressures mentch against Arizona State. So I. If you're going to trust something, trust the Texas defensive line. But I also want to say this. Ohio State has jumped its last two opponents. Jumped him, like, in an alley. No idea. It's coming, right? With a crowbar. Absolute crowbar. Dark alley off the side of the head. Tennessee and Oregon. Okay, I know it's dark, but, like, that's what it felt like. Like left stumbling, like, disoriented. Tennessee and Oregon, especially Oregon. But if there's a team out there that can. That can match a fast start and they can kind of, you know, quell that initial rush that Ohio State has shown it's had the last couple weeks, it's Texas. I want to go back. Fast starts have been. Have been Texas's game. It's continuing that momentum and not getting too conservative. And what happened from the late second quarter or third quarter on. But 14 to 3, they jumped Arizona State in the first quarter. Texas did Texas the week prior against Clemson, 217 in the second quarter. And at halftime it was 28 to 10, Texas 6. Nothing against Georgia does. Oh, that's not that big of a difference. Couple field goals. But remember, late in that first. Late in that second quarter, they had around 200. I think it was 197 total yards of offense. Georgia had six. Okay, go back before that. A&M, 17, nothing. First half, Texas 24, nothing. Kentucky the week before, Texas 10, nothing. First half versus Arkansas in a really sloppy game and so on and so forth.
- [82:33]
Steve Levy
Right?
- [82:34]
Todd McShay
Give me the six. I'm taking Texas. Give me the six. I'm not saying Ohio State's gonna lose. I. I actually think, like, every part, like you said, every part of the analyst in me sees a better Ohio State team that's peaking at the right time. And I believe we're going to see Ohio State in the national championship game. And Fanduel agrees. It's a huge. They're like, minus. I wish I had the numbers here. They're like minus 100 or 200 in terms of teams to win the national championship. Every other team is like plus 400 and greater, right? But I want the six points with Texas in this game. That's a wrap, man. That's it. We got an hour and 20 minutes right around there. Really important stuff. Kind of a building block for the, for the draft. Patriots don't get the first pick. Tennessee sitting there, brand new general manager, lot to talk about with these quarterbacks to door Sanders and Cam Ward with so much to look forward to when this college football playoff is off, is over and going down to the Senior Bowl. Our entire crew's going down there. We've got cameras we like. It's we're going to be a headache for Jim Nagy and, and, and Molly who is top assistant, all those sorts of things. But we're fired up for that. But in the meantime, please join us. We're really excited about Thursday and Friday night this week after the semi final games. Join us on YouTube. We'll be there as soon as humanly possible. You might have to wait a few minutes. You don't have to yell and scream. We're doing our best, but we will be there. Moments after the final gun goes off in Notre Dame, Penn State on Thursday night and then moments after the Cotton Bowl, Texas versus Ohio State. These are going to be true two great games and mention I will be there. You can yell at us, you can yell with us. We're gonna have a lot of fun. So appreciate everyone's support and we will see you on Thursday night. Must be 21 plus and present in select states For Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18+ and present in D.C. gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789 7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit Gambling Helpline ma.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York SA.