Podcast Summary: The McShay Show – CFP Semifinal Preview: Penn State–Notre Dame and Texas–Ohio State. Plus, the Patriots Fumble the Top Pick and Talking Titans QB Options

Released on January 7, 2025 by The Ringer

1. Introduction

In this episode of The McShay Show, NFL Draft and College Football Analyst Todd McShay, alongside co-host Steve Levy, delves deep into the latest happenings in both the NFL and college football landscapes. The discussion centers around the New England Patriots' recent losing of the number one overall draft pick, analyses of the upcoming College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinal games between Penn State–Notre Dame and Texas–Ohio State, and a detailed examination of quarterback prospects for the NFL Draft.

2. Patriots Lose the Number One Draft Pick

The episode kicks off with a critical analysis of the New England Patriots' decision-making, particularly focusing on their loss of the top draft pick.

• Steve Levy [01:13]: “Yeah, they find ways to lose even when they win, man.”

Todd McShay expresses skepticism about the Patriots' strategic choices, emphasizing that the organization failed to safeguard their number one pick despite having valuable assets like quarterback Drake May. He criticizes the leadership, including owner Robert Kraft, for not making decisive moves sooner, such as relieving head coach Gerard Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt before the final game.

• Todd McShay [05:07]: “The organization didn't do enough from the top down to secure that number one overall pick.”

McShay underscores the importance of maintaining organizational stability and trust in coaching staff to preserve high draft positions, suggesting that the Patriots' missteps could have been avoided with more proactive leadership.

3. NFL Draft Order Implications

The discussion shifts to the implications of the current NFL draft order, highlighting the top 12 non-playoff teams and their draft needs, particularly at the quarterback position.

Todd outlines the draft order:

1. Titans
2. Cleveland
3. Giants
4. Patriots
5. Jaguars
6. Raiders
7. Jets
8. Panthers
9. New Orleans Saints
10. Chicago Bears

He notes that six of the top ten teams are seeking a quarterback, stressing the high demand for this pivotal position.

• Todd McShay [11:08]: “Six of the top 10 need a quarterback. It’s always the case and makes perfect sense.”

The recent firing of the Titans' GM, Ran Carthon, introduces uncertainty regarding the number one pick's future, prompting questions about potential changes in team strategies.

4. NFL Quarterback Prospects: Shador Sanders vs. Cam Ward

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to evaluating quarterback prospects for the upcoming NFL Draft, primarily focusing on Shador Sanders and Cam Ward.

• Steve Levy [24:30]: “It’s simple math. You’re going to get more for one than you are going to get it for four.”

Todd discusses the strengths and weaknesses of both prospects. Shador Sanders is praised for his passing instincts and accuracy but criticized for his lack of elite athleticism. Conversely, Cam Ward is viewed as a more athletic project with greater physical tools but requires development in decision-making and quick processing.

• Todd McShay [34:20]: “Cam can extend with a little bit more athletic ability, a little more strength. But Sanders has a better pure passer in terms of layering the ball.”

The duo debates the viability of trading down versus holding firm on high picks, with Todd advocating for strategic asset management to maximize draft value.

5. College Football Playoff Semifinal Preview

The episode provides comprehensive previews of the two CFP semifinal games: Notre Dame vs. Penn State and Texas vs. Ohio State.

a. Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Both teams boast formidable offensive and defensive lines but lack significant depth in wide receiver talent, relying heavily on their run games.

• Todd McShay [39:29]: “Jeremiah Love is the heart and soul of that Notre Dame offense. Without him, I'm concerned.”

Key points include Notre Dame’s strong defensive safeties, Xavier Watts and Don Shuler, who pose significant challenges to Penn State’s running backs, particularly Ty Warren. McShay and Levy discuss the importance of turnovers, Notre Dame's aggressive defense, and punctual game management as critical factors that could tip the scales.

• Steve Levy [55:08]: “I think Penn State ekes it out and heads to the national championship.”

Levy predicts a close game but ultimately favors Penn State, citing their superior talent and ability to capitalize on turnovers.

b. Texas vs. Ohio State

This matchup features Ohio State's high-performing offense against Texas's staunch defense. The discussion highlights Ohio State's ability to pressure quarterbacks and Texas's strategic offensive plays.

• Steve Levy [73:40]: “I feel really comfortable about Ohio State winning this game.”

Todd emphasizes the significance of Texas's defense, particularly edge rusher Colin Simmons and the disruptive front line, in stifling Ohio State's quarterback, Quinn Ewers. The conversation also touches on potential adjustments in playcalling and the importance of aggressive offensive strategies from Texas to secure a victory.

• Todd McShay [82:33]: “Give me the six. I'm taking Texas.”

Despite acknowledging Ohio State's recent dominance, Todd expresses a slight tilt towards Texas for the win, reflecting confidence in Texas's defensive prowess and ability to challenge Ohio State's offense effectively.

6. Betting Analysis and Predictions

Throughout the episode, McShay and Levy intertwine their analysis with betting insights, leveraging FanDuel's odds and promoting responsible gambling.

• Todd McShay [20:07]: “FanDuel has Cam Ward at minus 125, the best odds to be the number one overall pick. Shador Sanders at plus 105.”

They discuss public betting trends, advising listeners to consider contrarian strategies—if the majority bets on one side, the listeners might find value in the opposite.

When previewing the CFP games, they provide betting lines and personal predictions:

• Notre Dame vs. Penn State: Both lean towards Penn State winning by a small margin.

• Texas vs. Ohio State: Mixed opinions with Steve favoring Ohio State and Todd slightly leaning towards Texas.

7. Conclusion

Todd and Steve wrap up the episode by highlighting upcoming shows, including live reaction segments post the semifinal games. They encourage listener engagement through subscriptions and participation in live discussions, underscoring their excitement for the impending NFL Draft and the culmination of the CFP season.

• Todd McShay [82:33]: “That's a wrap, man. That's it. We got an hour and 20 minutes right around there. Really important stuff.”

The episode concludes with reminders about responsible gambling and promotional content from FanDuel.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Levy [01:13]: “Yeah, they find ways to lose even when they win, man.”

• Todd McShay [05:07]: “The organization didn't do enough from the top down to secure that number one overall pick.”

• Todd McShay [34:20]: “Cam can extend with a little bit more athletic ability, a little more strength. But Sanders has a better pure passer in terms of layering the ball.”

• Steve Levy [55:08]: “I think Penn State ekes it out and heads to the national championship.”

• Todd McShay [82:33]: “That's a wrap, man. That's it. We got an hour and 20 minutes right around there. Really important stuff.”

This episode of The McShay Show offers an in-depth analysis of pivotal moments in the NFL and college football scenes, providing listeners with expert insights into team strategies, player performances, and draft implications. Whether you're a die-hard fan or a casual follower, Todd McShay and Steve Levy deliver engaging content that keeps you informed and entertained.