The McShay Show — April 8, 2026

Episode: Emptying the NFL Draft Notebook With Albert Breer

Host: Todd McShay | Guest: Albert Breer (SI/The MMQB)

[Presented by The Ringer]

Episode Overview

Todd McShay and special guest Albert Breer go deep on the latest NFL Draft buzz, dissecting inside intel on front-office thinking, top prospects, and the unique dynamics shaping the 2026 NFL Draft’s opening picks. With 15 days until draft night, they break down what’s real and what’s just noise, focusing on QB evaluations (notably the Raiders’ process with Fernando Mendoza), the Jets’ decision at No. 2, the persistent conundrum of draft value by position, and how several evolving league philosophies are impacting board decisions for the first dozen picks.
Note: Steve Muench is off this episode, grinding player reports.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Raiders’ Draft Process: Fernando Mendoza Locked at No. 1

[05:14] — [13:48]

• The Raiders’ conviction in Fernando Mendoza started early (“boots on the ground” across college campuses in fall 2025; multiple live games, including in harsh weather).
• GM John Spytek led comprehensive, multi-phase study:
  • Traveled to see Mendoza during tough weather games ([05:14]), key national matchups, bowl games, and the college title.
  • Simultaneous evals of Dante Moore and Ty Simpson—Moore staying in school essentially locked Mendoza as “the guy.”
  • Multiple in-person and virtual meetings, whiteboard work, dinners, pro day vigilance, and installation-style Zooms.
• Tom Brady’s hands-on role:
  • Brady’s tape study and unique eye for QB “makeup” (character, leadership).
  • Unique dynamic with face-to-face (first) meeting (“the last box to check”)—[09:31].
• Why Mendoza?
  • “Works his ass off. Is the personality different? Yeah, but he’s so comfortable in his own skin…” —Albert Breer [09:31]
  • Leadership/locker room fit considered last “check.”
  • “He’s got good—not great—physical tools... He really had to fight to find his place in college football...has the work ethic and the drive and all that stuff that Brady, I think, would really identify with.” —Albert Breer [10:31]
• Notable Quote:
  • “What was the most significant thing about the 30 visits? Probably getting face-to-face with Tom Brady.” —Albert Breer [09:31]

2. Jets’ No. 2 Dilemma: Proven Pass Rusher vs. Project & the QB Non-Plan

[15:52] — [25:34]

• The internal debate:
  • Take David Bailey—the “bird in hand,” proven, safe pass rusher (best in draft, even if “not great versus the run”), or
  • Roll dice on Arvell Reese—the “cyborg” with higher upside, but more projection/development required.
• “A couple months ago, my info was they’re gonna take Bailey...even though Reese may have a higher upside.” —Todd McShay [16:54]
• Aaron Glenn (DC) job security & coaching dynamics:
  • Need for immediate impact (“you need somebody to help us now...to engage the locker room...to make sure you get better results.”) —Breer [18:31]
  • Comparison: David Bailey’s discussion echoes past “frame/athleticism” questions around Aidan Hutchinson by the Lions.
• Long-term QB strategy:
  • Jets are “so committed to” the 2027 QB class, want a “competitive enough” 2026 QB (e.g. Geno Smith) to “not win too many games” and tank organically—but can’t appear to quit [21:13].
  • “The great majority of your locker room doesn’t give a shit about your three-year plan.” —Breer [23:19]
• Notable Quote:
  • “Bailey probably does that (provides hope and instant impact) more so than [Reese].” —McShay [24:50]

3. Cardinals at No. 3 and the Hybrid Defender Debate

[25:34] — [29:08]

• If Reese gets to 3, he’s likely the pick—“big need…would have been a really good fit for Jonathan Gannon” ([26:13]).
• Arizona’s bruised history with hybrids: “Does ownership bring up that Zaven Collins, Isaiah Simmons both sort of failed as hybrid picks?” —Breer [27:14]
• Cardinals open to moving back (“most of the teams in the top five would seriously consider moving out” —Breer [28:23]), but lack of star “prototypes” hurts trade-up market.
• Drafting off-ball LB/edge/safety/running back in the Top 10 is always a tough sell [29:08].

4. Running Back Value & Giants’ Pick at No. 5

[32:10] — [45:31]

• No “prototype” offensive tackles or wideouts at the top—discussion pivots to value at:
  • Jeremiah Love (RB): The rationale for going RB in the top 5:
    • League trend: market correction—elite contending teams grabbed Henry, Barkley, Jacobs on cheap vet deals; KC signed Kenneth Walker.
    • “It’s hard for me not to connect this to what Todd Gurley meant for Jared Goff...what Zeke Elliott meant to Dak Prescott” —Breer [40:05]
    • Three-down, weaponized skill backs like Love “keep a young QB on schedule,” expand the playbook, and take pressure off.
    • Pro comp: Marshall Faulk/A. Peterson style dual threat. Love averaged 10+ yards per catch, best pass-catcher among RBs in draft. —McShay [43:47]
• Giants (No. 5): Tone-setter for new regime, likely between Sonny Styles (LB/S, Ohio State) and Maui Noah (RT, Miami). Styles’ fit echoes Harbaugh’s Ravens tradition: “The offball linebacker has been a really important piece for Harbaugh over the years.” —Breer [45:52]
  • Maui Noah would be a departure from Harbaugh’s “skill and front seven” focus; recent OL investments (Jermaine Eluemunor) further complicate.
• High football IQ (Styles, Downs) is extra attractive in the top 5-10.

5. “Combo” and Value Plays: Browns at No. 6, Early Wide Receiver/OL/DB Market

[49:31] — [54:24]

• Cleveland wants the best “combo” of OT/WR with picks 6 and 24.
  • Consensus: Carnell Tate (WR) = only plug-and-play, true 1st-round grade wideout; other WRs (Lemon, Tyson, Cooper) sparkier but polarizing [53:13].
  • Spencer Fano (OT, Utah) cited for athleticism but short arms and limited LT tape; worry he’s not worth pick 6.
• WR Market overall: “There’s a bunch of good receivers, but...Tate is the guy.” —McShay [52:51]

6. Teams/Landing Spots in Picks 7–12:

[54:47] — [62:01]

• Washington (7): Styles a clean fit for Dan Quinn’s defense (athletic, rangy LB type).
• Saints/Bengals (8/10): Edge rushers (Reuben Bain) and corners (McCoy, Delane) are prime targets.
  • Both McCoy and Delane now solid top-12 picks.
• Dolphins/Cowboys (11/12): Corners and Carnell Tate could fall to them if board breaks right.
• Chiefs (late teens): Unlikely to take a corner; trust Steve Spagnuolo’s CB development system.

7. Safety Position Value & Caleb Downs Conundrum

[61:18] — [63:06]

• Can Downs fall to 12? Yes—safety value rarely justifies top-10 pick unless the prospect is a rare athlete/off-the-charts size (cf. Hamilton/D. James).
• Downs is “probably the best football player in the draft...[but] not an exceptional athlete, now you’ve got a bigger-picture question.”
  • “He’s so fundamentally sound and so smart and so dialed in...just a frickin’ good...probably the best football player in the draft.”—Albert Breer [64:17]

8. Quarterback Class, Day 2/3 Expectations, and Development

[70:49] — [83:57]

• Don’t be surprised if only two QBs and two RBs go by Day 3 (Mendoza and Simpson at QB; Love and Price at RB) —Breer [71:44].
• QB philosophy: If he’s not a top-40 “starter projection,” teams wait due to position’s unique allocation burden [72:02].
• Ty Simpson: “You see Simpson do more NFL things on tape...but Mendoza is further along in his development arc.” —Breer [81:28]
• Simpson’s comp: “Brock Purdy” (high football IQ, less raw talent than Mendoza), but lottery ticket upside depends heavily on system/fit.
• Expansion on QB development: Third-year breakout trend (Mendoza, Cam Ward, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow). Unpolished, volatile, but huge upside if trajectory continues—harder to trust in Simpson, who lacks a full arc of development [78:54–80:39].

Notable Quotes & Moments

“He’s got good—not great—physical tools…and he crushes it…has the work ethic and the drive that Brady, I think, would really identify with.”
—Albert Breer on Fernando Mendoza [10:31]

“The great majority of your locker room doesn’t give a shit about your three-year plan.”
—Albert Breer on tanking in pro football [23:19]

“What prototype? There’s no Joe Alt. No Miles Garrett, no Julio Jones, no Calvin Johnson this year.”
—McShay on limited blue-chip top-of-board prospects [28:39]

“It’s hard for me not to connect this to what Todd Gurley meant for Jared Goff…what Zeke Elliott meant to Dak Prescott…”
—Breer about the value of offense-shaping RBs [40:05]

“I think Tate is the…stamp him. Six isn’t too high. Anything below ten is a steal.”
—McShay on Carnell Tate [52:51]

“If you have those questions about Lemon, about Tyson, about Tate, does Kenyon Sadiq have a better chance to be a top-five tight end than any of these guys have of being a top-five receiver?”
—Breer exploring bold Chiefs scenario [66:50]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Raiders’ Process & Mendoza: [05:14]–[13:48]
• Jets at No. 2 Debate: [15:52]–[25:34]
• Cardinals at No. 3, Reese, Arizona trade-down market: [25:34]–[29:08]
• RB/Tackle/WR/Hybrid Value Comments: [32:10]–[54:24]
• Washington and Defensive Value at 7+: [54:47]–[62:01]
• Safety/Downs Position Value: [61:18]–[65:09]
• Chiefs at Late-First Round: [65:22]–[68:25]
• “Don’t Be Surprised If…” Final Thoughts: [68:33]–[83:57]

Bold “Don’t Be Surprised If” Segment

• McShay: WRs go later than expected; size/length/edge-valued players like Keldrick Falk (Auburn) and Zion Young (Missouri) sneak into late 1st [68:32–70:49].
• Breer: Only 2 QBs & 2 RBs before Day 3 (see breakdown in section 8 above).

Tone, Style & Dynamics

• Informal but expert, loaded with anecdotes from front-office convos and player workouts.
• Overt insider banter: “I didn’t expect to keep you this long, I apologize.” —McShay [84:11]
• Candid on what’s “noise” versus legit, with skepticism toward groupthink and public narrative around the draft.

Conclusion

This episode is a deep-dive, information-packed look at how NFL front offices are making early first-round decisions in a year light on “prototype” blue-chippers but rich with unique positional debates. Raiders/Mendoza’s process, Jets’ pragmatic approach, new definitions of positional value, and the ebb and flow of league trends in running backs and hybrid defenders emerge as key themes, all punctuated by Breer and McShay’s plugged-in, candid dialogue.

(Ads, intros, and outros omitted)