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Todd McShay
The Senior bowl tagline is that the draft starts in mobile and that's in January. And in a lot of ways it does for the media, coaches and fans. But the fact of the matter is it starts right now for NFL scouts. So if our mission is to share the year round process with our team committed audience, we're sure as hell not going to go dark on you right now. Right? So as promised, It's Monday. It's May 19, and today we kick off our summer scouting series with a player that may or may not be a part of the 2026 draft class, Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Just 339 days until next year's NFL draft. Mench, you good?
Mel Kiper Jr.
I'm good man.
Todd McShay
All right, let's roll.
Mel Kiper Jr.
We're back.
Todd McShay
The bow has been put on the 2025 NFL Draft. We'll revisit it. We're going to have mailbags, we're going to answer questions. We've got a lot to get to in terms of kind of wrapping up what it looks like. I think come back in August to preview the season. Look at what the rookies, rookie players are doing in training camp. We've got a lot of intel, but now we turn the page right. We said it last week. Monday, we shove it down their throats and here we are and it's Monday. And I'm excited to share this. Honestly, we've spent a lot of time and I'm not going to go back to the dog Walking meeting that I had with our executive producer Connor Nevins. And Connor telling Marissa that hey, sometimes we got to protect people against themselves. And talking about me and the Mench calling me and pleading with me, let's do the right thing. Let's, let's. And finally all came together and it's, let's, let's dial back all these three year deep dive studies and all that. Let's. Like we promised in October 22nd when we started this thing, we're going to share the year round process that is scouting. So like when we talk to our buddies in the league right now, it's, it's getting ready for, for next year. It's like they're already, honest to God. Here's the funny thing. I'm not sure everyone knows. I'll talk to some scouts, some area scouts in April before the draft. And it's like, and it depends on the organization, but it's like, yeah, I'm kind of like, you know, they blocked me out. It's now a meeting of like the top people, right. And like I knew what the board looked like but, but essentially like it was my job to present my players, my cross checks, all of my information. And now it's the executives, the top, you know, the general manager, the head coach, the owner, in some situations, whoever that that leadership council would, would be, if you will. And so for some scouts, they were already in April starting in on the tape for next year. And obviously last year we have a pot. We probably like 40 to 50 players that we wrote up for last year's draft, they got a little nil scratch, maybe, maybe hit the transfer portal and decide to come back to school. So we got to jump on that. Just like NFL scouts have a jump on that. But right now it's about. All right, we got all this tape. Maybe it's three years of tape. Maybe it's two. Maybe in the case of Arch Manning, it's two starts and what was it, 233 snaps that he took, took last year.
Mel Kiper Jr.
We're going to get into 90 passing attempts, right? I think he had 90 passing attempts.
Todd McShay
90 passing, 107 drop backs, 90 passing attempts. Okay.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
And there was a key, a key clip, key play clip for arch of 70 plays. And then key plays, it's, it's plays where negative, positive. There was something impactful that, that if you're scouting a player, you're trying to get to know this player. Those are the plays where you have to put your eyes on it. Right. I do want to mention before we jump into Arch Manning and this is going to, this is kicking off our summer scouting series. We're going to go, we're going to go top to bottom. We're starting with Arch and we'll get into the reasons why we start with Arch in a second and we'll, we'll go through the potential QB1s. We'll go through kind of some of the position groups like the wide receiver group. A lot more talent this year. Anyone up in that elite tier. We, we'll talk about that. We're going to talk about some, some organizations and programs. I should say they're basically organizations now like Clemson. It's been out of the, haven't been in the same level. Kind of out of the limelight of the Georgia's and the Alabamas and the Michigans and the Ohio states in recent years. It's been almost a decade since we've talked about the talent level being up there with the other elite class. Well, they're back and we're going to break it down. We're going to, we're going to spend time, Steve and I watching tape to figure out like is it real or is it just because they got a bunch of upperclassmen. So this summer scouting series is something that Steve and I are proud of. We've been doing it for 20 plus years. We just haven't told anybody about it. We haven't had a, an outlet or a forum to ex. To walk everyone through it. And we promised each other when Steve and I were talking about this concept way prior to October 22nd when we started last year, we felt a responsibility if we're going to do this the right way to share our process which we've emulated the NFL scouting process as close as we can given it's just a two person staff. Right. And it's been great. It's been five people. It's been four people. We've had Pete Seusses and Joe Nagels and Jim Naggies and, and Dean Dalton's and Gary Hortons. We've had all sorts of people but from the Kevin Whitele. Kevin, obviously Kevin Whitel was the, the greatest of all.
Mel Kiper Jr.
That was the golden era.
Todd McShay
Yeah, yeah, the golden era. But, but we promised that we were going to do it this way. And here we are Monday, May 19th. And I'm excited to, to begin sharing for the next few months as we get ready for the college football season, for the NFL season, both 2025. What scouts are doing now, what our process is and I'm like, I think people are going to respond, well, why wouldn't you want to start to get this information now? Why wait until August? Why wait until October? Why wait until the. In Mobile in January? And it's a great, catchy line. It's, you know, and like I said, in the open, in a lot of ways, it's true. Because that's when the. The NFL coaches stop coaching the season. They're there, they start to scout with the scouts, general managers get more involved. The media starts to pay attention to the draft. The fans started pay paying attention to the draft. But people who are watching the show want to know now, and that's what we're going to start doing. I do want to mention. I want to mention this first before we get started on archmanning, our buddy Joe's back in the league. Bruh.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Joe took no time. Took no time.
Todd McShay
I had a great conversation with Joe, as did you. We talked to him personally, privately. We talked to him on the show, if you want to go. We had a great interview. Not. I hate saying interview. Joe's. Joe's a great friend of ours. Joe's a great friend of the. Of the show. And we had Joe on, and we had a bunch of laughs right before the draft. It was kind of like a mental release, and we were able to just kind of have some fun and talk about the process a little bit. If you want to check that out, it's on our YouTube page, the McShay Show. Okay. But when we talked to him privately, he was kind of, you know, like, we all have families. We, you know, a lot of us have kids. You and I both have kids. And. And families sometimes have to make a lot of sacrifices. And so an opportunity arose for Joe, and I texted him. I. I don't know that he's texted back yet, but. And so it's just a report that came out. Right. I shot him a text, and we'll maybe get some more information if there's even more that needs to be out there. But honestly, we're just saying this like, congratulations to Joe because I know part of the. Kind of giving back to the family, making sure that the kids are in a place that they want to be. They. They love their time in. In Philadelphia area, love their time with the Eagles was a critical part of building a Super bowl there with Howie Roseman and that staff. Now he gets to go back there. I kind of want to see. Is Joe going to help out on the offensive line, too? A little bit.
Mel Kiper Jr.
That'd be Interesting, huh? I'd love to see that.
Todd McShay
Just a. Just a dream of mine to see Joe in the trenches. They got a pretty good offensive line coach there, though. Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I was going to say, I'm not sure they need help, but it would be nice.
Todd McShay
No, I'm just saying. But Joe's going to be part of a. And then. I don't know exactly. You. You sent me the article, actually. Some senior scouting, senior advisor role. So it's perfect for Joe. He's not chasing the money. He's not chasing super bowl rings. He's got, what, three. Three of those, I think.
Mel Kiper Jr.
So he wouldn't mind a couple more rings? I think he still wants.
Todd McShay
Of course not. I'm just saying now it's about a little bit. Let's take a couple years and make sure my family's taken care of. And. And let's. Let's do it. We talked to Howie Roseman, too. That's another interview. These GM interviews have been awesome. We're gonna ramp it back up next after next season, the Decision Maker series. But. But just talking to Howie, how many times did he reference Joe and his, like, appreciation for him and like, the stories that he told? And that's another thing you can check out on our. On our YouTube page. Thank you, everyone, for being here. Thank you for downloading for. For supporting. Thank you for the likes. Thank you for everything that you do. Subscribing, as you can see, men has always been better at this than me, but. But also thank you for subscribing to the. The McShay report. And we had another one drop this morning. And I. I provided like Dan. Dan comer or like Mr. Mr. Everything, right? We talked through a bunch of stuff last night. I was watching Arts before I left. I went away for the weekend with my family. Came back last night. Get back off the ferry drive. Everyone coming back home. Sunday night traffic coming back from the Cape. I get here and I got to finish up the Arch tape notes, and we work through a bunch of notes and the McShave. It's kind of cool. He just decided to keep. I've got a bunch of crazy notes in there with exclamation points and all caps and, like, the way I write in the note and. And I don't know, check it out. It's kind of cool because it's. It's raw. This is. Thank you.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I like it. I like it. I mean, I was saying, honestly, before you even came on, we were. I was talking to the rest of the guys before you came On. I said, that was one of the things I loved about it. It's just your notes. We don't get it. Like, we don't need to get into this. He threw the ball downfield with great velocity and fierceness, and he didn't know, like, he rolled his left, flicked it downfield 40 yards. He did this. And that's. That's an NFL play, you know, just. Just because that's what you're writing, you're not fleshing this thing out. And by the way, GMs don't want to hear all that. You know, give it to me. If you can say in 10 words, I don't want 50, man. Just give me the. The. We're not. This is not, you know, who's going to be the best writer in the world. We're not Shakespeare. We're not any of that crap. We are just trying to convey what we saw, what we think of a player. And that's what I really liked about him, by the way. It's as short as that. That was. I mean, you went in on it, man. This is like, there's about four I printed out. I have, like, four pages of notes on Arch Manning on a guy who had 90 passing attempts. And I think it's a really good look and honest look, a, you know, well rounded, complete look at who this player is and where he is in the process. Honestly, I hate giving you compliments. I think it's funny when people comment and say, like, I'm really propping you up because most of the show I'm just tearing you down. I'm like, oh, it must be the first episode I hate.
Todd McShay
Certainly off camera, you're always, yes, with the Machine Report.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It was really good this week. This is a great addition of it.
Todd McShay
Well, first of all, thank you. And second of all, it seems like a perfect, perfect time to just dive right in. Let me start, Let me start with this. On Arch Manning. I. I want to make it perfectly clear. A couple things. I want to make it perfectly clear. We're doing this as a foundation because. Because there's, like, the face of college football next year is going to be Arch Manning to start, right? And because of the Manning name, because of Texas, because of Sark, because of all of it. It's going to. He's. He and Texas are going to be one of the biggest storylines. In addition, there's already speculation about, Is it the 2026 NFL Draft? Is it 2027 NFL Draft? Where. How high could it go? Could it be the number one Overall pick all those things. So we just started. We started the summer scouting series with Arch Manning because why not? Like we're. I'm not here to hide from topics. I'm here to talk about them openly and let's have a discussion. So here's where I want to start on this mensch and then you can take it wherever you want. And I just want about men's. Watched the tape. I watched a tape. We have not talked on purpose. And we're going to continue to do it.
Mel Kiper Jr.
We usually do that, right? Yeah.
Todd McShay
Exact way. Because it would just be like us in a hotel room or getting on the phone and when we're just talking about players, Men comes in and he's got his angle and what he saw. Just like any. Like a scout from the west coast could have a concept on a player and then the cross check from the Southeast could have a concept on a player, an idea or a grade that's different. And then you talk it through and you're. It doesn't mean you're going to meet in the middle. But the decision maker, the general manager has got both sides. And then he's. He's watched his tape, he's talked to his sort. So like this is the healthy part of the evaluation process. And so I want to start with this with Arch. This is kind of my. All right, I'm done with his tape. It wasn't a ton of tape, but what's out there I'm done with. And the first thing when I was kind of wrapping up that I started to think was if he wasn't a Manning and if he had different financial circumstances and if he were to go on and show the same level of improvement and growth that I saw from him in a short period of time earlier in the season when he was finishing a game against was it utsa, and then when he started a game against Louisiana Monroe and started the next game against Mississippi State, if I were, you know, crystal ball it. And even without the crystal ball, based off of my experience in history studying players like, I see that growth in a short period of time. And so if his name isn't Manning and if he doesn't have the financial circumstances that he does and if I saw and seeing what I saw on tape and the growth that I expect to see him have, that's not guaranteed. But. But based off of those three factors, I'm telling you right now, men, this is my biggest takeaway. I'd have no problem. I'd sleep easy at night writing in arch Manning number one overall prospect in the 2026 draft, even though I saw 70 key plays, even though I saw 90 pass attempts. And it's just not enough. But it's a projection prospects. You have to have projections now. But the truth of the matter is he is a man. Truth of the matter is his family's fine whether he's in the NFL or not financially. His dad's Cooper. His dad's not Eli. His dad's not Peyton. So their finances. Finances probably aren't as good. They're pretty good. They're not hurting for a paycheck. They don't. And that's not always the case with these prospects. Right. And. And furthering it, even if ours were to break off from the Manning family, I don't know exactly what the nil money is. There's different numbers that are reported, but it's several million dollars that he's going to make at Texas as the Longhorn starting quarterback in 2025. So he personally, even if like you broke the Manning name off, if it was Arch Smith, he's just fine. Okay. And then there's the history of the Mannings, of Eli coming back and surprising a lot of people for his last year at Ole Miss with Coach Cutcliffe. Same with Peyton Manning. They were surprises that now we were in college. But I remember going back and reading about it and talking to Gary Horton, our mentor and, and like the big. The great debate was what it was. It was Ryan Lee versus Peyton Manning. So they, they are as well equipped as any family to understand and have shown through, through history, through proof that they value the importance of learning and starting games in college. It's the old parcels theory and I think it's actually, I forget was the number 24 or 25 starts, whatever that number was, minimum of that number starts, needs to be a college graduate, all those things. Well, what's happened now? There was a period in time, if you remember, that's like Mark Sanchez was 13 starts and, and, and Vince Young didn't quite have his enough starts. And Mitch Trub was 13 starts. Most recently Anthony Richardson 13 starts. None of it has played out very well with those guys. And more so there's po positive evidence that Moore starts in college. Doesn't always, but it typically correlates with NFL readiness at that position. Bo Nix is a shining example. He had the most starts of any college player coming out of Oregon after transferring from Auburn. Of any college player at the time, it was 63 or 64 starts.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah. Only Dylan Gabriel beat it.
Todd McShay
But that was after the fact at the time when he came out he was. He had the most and most people in the league had him as a second round. Had a second round grade on him or some. A grade that was equivalent to a second round draft pick.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I think that's fair. Yeah.
Todd McShay
And Sean Payton didn't see it that way. Sean Payton didn't see it with, with R.J. harvey. Sean Payton didn't see it with, with your boy Pat Bryant. And like when Sean, when Sean sees exact. When he has a vis. Clear vision of what's going to work. He saw that in, in B Knicks and Bo Nick came in and because he was so experienced and he had been through wars and he had failed and he had picked himself up the off the mat and he fought back and he finished successful. He saw all those things. He's like that's my guy. And even Jaden Daniels. Jaden Daniels, people forget he was like third, fourth round prospect, some people thought fifth going into his final year at lsu became the number two overall pick and now he's an absolute sensation for the Washington Commanders. On the flip side, Caleb Williams didn't have as many starts as Jaden or. Or Bo Nix. Right. Drake may actually didn't have as many starts. Yep. They still had more than like the parcels number. But my point in saying all of this is the Manning family has been validated in their decisions to promote Peyton and promote Eli going back for their final years of school. When they came in the league. It wasn't all and by the way, Eli really struggled as a rookie. Peyton had struggles as a rookie. But they were ready to endure those struggles because it wasn't their 19th start after high school. Their first start in the NFL wasn't their 19th or 20th or 14th start after high school. You know what I mean? So you factor all those things in and, and I want to. We'll come back to it at the end and we'll talk about Seth Wickersham, our good friend who by the way is a friend of the show and has been very supportive of us. I'm not even sure I've shared that with you and some of the stories with Caleb Williams and, and kind of and, and, and Archie and we can get to all that later. But my point in prefacing all of this as we get into the scouting report is we're doing this to prepare for the season. We're doing this to prepare as a foundation for Arches Arch's scouting report and whether it's for 2026 or 2027 I don't care at this point because we'd go back and do this later anyway. And, and we. For our own purposes, as part of our process that we're sharing with you, the audience, we're doing it now because we would mention. I would be doing this now regardless. Start a foundation report, circle back at the end of the season, write that report. And even if Arch isn't ready, decides, I'll see you in 2027. We still got a full season as a starter and we got 2024. The two games he started and the 233 snaps he took. That's part of the process. That's why we're doing it. So the floor is now yours. M. Because I obviously, I know I can hear a layer in my. My sweet. A layer my daughter in my ear every time I do this. 22 minutes in and I've barely let you say. Say a word. Let. Let Menchi talk. Would you let Menchi talk? So here you. You tell me what your initial thoughts, whatever, wherever you want to take this. You get started on Arch and what you saw on his tape.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I just. I just want to ag. Address a couple of things you said, one I agree with wholeheartedly, one I have reservations about. Okay.
Todd McShay
Okay.
Mel Kiper Jr.
You are. I think. I don't even think it's a debate. I don't think you can debate how well the Mannings have handled this situation. When you look at his. At Arch Manning's recruitment out of high school, coming out of Isadore Newman, where his uncles played, where his dad played, the way they handled the recruitment, I think has been great for him. I think they're putting him in the best position to succeed. Pairing him with Steve Sarkeesian, the head coach of Texas, is a great move for them. They are. You're. You are. You can be more right about a point you've made on this show. He is in the best position for a quarterback to develop and succeed. I want to get back really quickly to you saying if he wasn't a Manning, and it really doesn't have much to do with this, whether or not he's a Manning, but being comfortable about penciling him in as the top prospect in the 2026 draft. Right? Is that what you said?
Todd McShay
Yes.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I. Man, I'm not ready. I. And we're gonna get into this now. I'm not ready to go there. I just don't. Haven't seen enough. I need more. We do this, I've done this. I think other evaluators have done this. Where you. I get. It's a little bit of a projection, and I get it, and I get that.
Todd McShay
No, it's a lot. It's a lot of a projection. Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
So let's start here. Let's start here with why people are gonna make that projection. And you make this point in the McShay report, I'm gonna echo it right now. The tools are all there, man. 6, 4, 2, 20 is what he's listed on the school website. I'm guessing he's every bit that big when you watch how strong his base is in the pocket. Yeah. The way he throws with that strong base, I mean, he's shaking off grown man. Grown men at times. In these limited snaps we've seen, he is shaking guys off. He throws with a strong base. He gets good zip on the ball. His mobility, I. I want him to run more this year. I want him to make more plays with his feet now. I don't want him to turn into a guy who's always running, but when you see him take off, you get excited about what he can do as a runner. Okay, so you're talking about mobility. You're talking about size, you're talking about arm talent. Check, check, check, check. All of the tools for him to become an elite quarterback are there. So I think that's where you would start with his evaluation. Would you agree?
Todd McShay
Absolutely. And that's where I started. Yeah. And. And. And I. I'll add to that here, so we can just kind of check off the box of tools. The ball snaps off his hand. I'm. Again, I think I wrote in the McShay report, like, it's not the MO. It's not Lamar mobility. It's not. It's not the arm strength of Josh Allen. Okay. But, like, it's check plus, plus for both, because it's a combination. Talking about mobility for a second, it's a combination of, like. It's not lateral right, but it's. It's smooth, athletic, slippery enough. Strong, as you mentioned, strong. I. Like, there are times where guys are kind of hanging on him, but there's, like, a level of, like. Not, like, Josh Allen just kicks your ass as a pass rusher sometimes. Just like, the kind of Roethlisberger, like, rips you off. Like, it's hard to bring down. He's more hard to bring down because he's got a. He's got a level of, like, strength, and that will continue to develop. But it's also this, like, slipperiness. He's coordinated, very coordinated for his Frame.
Mel Kiper Jr.
A good example of that really quickly is that Mississippi State throw these. Todd lists a bunch of throws. I mean it's 10 plus throws in the McShay report about.
Todd McShay
He.
Mel Kiper Jr.
This is what I'm seeing on this throw. This is what I'm concerned about. This is what I'm excited about it. There's a throw with five minutes left in the third quarter of the Mississippi State game where he kind of slides and then climbs and then makes an accurate throw to the cross. The deep crosser.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
And you look at that play and I don't know how's an evaluator like, damn. Like that's, I mean that's NFL stuff. Yeah, there we go, man. That if you can do that a consistent basis, you're gonna, you're gonna have a long ass career in the NFL, man.
Todd McShay
But then there's also that balance and.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Slipperiness, by the way. Sorry.
Todd McShay
No, absolutely. And then there's also the flick the wrist 50 yards, right? And like, like the 4 14, 47, fourth quarter, UTSA first or second play of the fourth quarter against UTSA. There's stuff his uncles couldn't do, right? Yeah, he's got, you know, and like he's got Cooper's, like, He's Cooper's son. 11:15, second quarter, UTSA one cut and go. Like dude has wheels. I wrote clearly Cooper's. Cooper was the athlete. Cooper was a receiver, right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
He was. Yeah, that's right. I don't think people realize that.
Todd McShay
So he's got like, he's got, he's got, he's got grandpappy's creativity and ability to make plays like on the run, throw it. If you go back and watch the highlights of like the Saints with, with Archie Manning, he's got, he's got some of his, of, of his uncs in him. You know, Uncle Peyton and Eli with that, that one. Did you talk about climbing, sliding? You can see like Peyton, like Eli, like the, the mechanics and especially Peyton, you know, like the climb and the slide and. But he's got his, he's got his dads. I don't want to say it's a perfect blend of all the. He's like. But I'm just saying like he's got tools and, and the ball snaps off his hand and even like Peyton didn't have the greatest arm. He had a really good arm and the ball would come out kind of fluttering. All those like NFL films you go back. But there's some energy behind his throw. So I just, as we're talking about the traits. There's. There's this combination of size, slippery, strong ball explodes off his hand. Like, it's all there. It's all there, tools wise.
Mel Kiper Jr.
And there's also things about playing, just playing the position, being a quarterback, that are excited. There are times you're excited about where he is in the process in terms of, you know, manipulating the coverage with his eyes and finding reads and finding, you know, getting through his reads, finding guys late. But I think we're gonna get in this, too. There's room for improvement in terms of where he is. Right. Right. So do you want to get into that now, or. I will say there's one throw that reminded me of his Uncle Eli. And I remember watching. I shouldn't age myself like this, but I remember watching Eli Manning an Ole Miss, and this was an Eli Manning throw to me. There's a. There's a throw. It's not on your list, actually.
Todd McShay
It's.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's in the Florida game. It's in the 6:20 down the left, the left rail. Unbelievable. To the running back. He. He moves to his left, never sets his feet, and just lofts the ball over the. I think it was a linebacker. I might be wrong about it, but I think it was a linebacker running with the running back. The touch on that throw, because that was the thing about Eli coming out of Ole Miss. That was the thing that I loved about Eli. His touch was like no other quarterbacks in that draft. I had Roethlisberger and Rivers. That was a great draft. His touch was outstanding. Coming out of Ole Miss, and that. I saw that throw. I was like, that looks familiar to me. I've seen. I've seen that before.
Todd McShay
It's interesting in my notes because I, I. You get done with your notes. And I went through. I watched 233 snaps. No, I did the old Andy Whitel. Put the computer down. Get the.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Get smart.
Todd McShay
Get the freaking pen out of your hand. Would you just watch the tape and stop trying to make an assessment off of every play, you know? And so I just watched it. Kind of sat here and just watched it. Tried not to, like, let my brain go anywhere. Just watched it. Then I came back and did the key plays, and I went and watched some specific runs, some specific throws, right? So I got done with my notes, and I always like to go back and read the notes from beginning to end. And in this case, it was really enlightening. Okay. Because in the beginning, I'm writing things like hangs on. Hangs on. First read a tick too long. Identifies the crosser. Coming open snap, snaps off the ball. Sharp accurate ball to John Tay. Cook takes down inside the. He took the receiver, took it down inside the 10 yard line. That was 404 third quarter against Colorado State. But it's like every note that I had in there, there was a caveat, right? A great throw got inside the 10 yard line. But like, I need to see this ball come out earlier, right? And then like. And then the goal gets greedy, right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
He gets greedy a little bit. He, you know the saying, you'll never go broke taking a profit. There are times where he wants the, he wants that big hitter, he wants that, you know, he wants to turn into the big parlay instead of just taking the winner underneath where he can hit the back or the tight end and he'll force the ball downfield a little bit.
Todd McShay
I love this conversation. You know why? Because you might be right. I got more of a sense, especially Earl, like the Colorado State. And then he came in the game against utsa, didn't start that one, but that's when, that's when Quinn Ewers got like. I think the injury happened against Michigan. He couldn't finish that game, however it played out. But in the UTSA game and then I thought even early in the Louisiana Monroe game, I got the sense like, and I'm, I'm taking too many steps. But almost like that there's a level of understanding of the circumstance of like, let's not go in there and Sark probably drilling at home of let's not go in there and make some, some huge mistake. Let's protect the football. Let's not give it, turn this into a media frenzy where you go out, come out and make a few big mistakes. Let's. And maybe it wasn't even that. Maybe it was just an inexperienced quarterback seeing gut bullets fly for the first time in some kind of extended period of play. But I, I viewed it more as I think he really was locking on to his primary too long. And I also saw a young quarterback and I remember doing the same thing. And I've watched hundreds now, quarterbacks, especially early in their career in college, you want to see it? And Jaden Daniels, this is what the conversation I had with Brian Kelly before that Tennessee game when they got smoked. Let it rip, he said. We sit there and practice. Just let it rip. Trust your eyes. You can throw with anticipation. We see you do it. You're deadly accurate when you throw to a spot and let the receiver run to it. Do it. Trust. Trust the read Trust your receiver. Trust the concept. Let it rip. I saw a quarterback who was guarded against that, and I really thought I did.
Mel Kiper Jr.
And I. I thought he was ripping some, trying to rip some into some tight windows on. In breaking routes where he could have hit his back or tight end underneath.
Todd McShay
Okay, I. I did a better job.
Mel Kiper Jr.
By the way, the Georgia game, which is interesting. Now we're just going to keep going here. Yeah.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I actually thought he did a better job in the Georgia game of finding guys underneath and that. That he kind of calmed down a little bit there. Now, obviously that was a train wreck in terms of their protections. They were not picking up. There was a lot of free rushers in that game, and that's a different kind of a. A topic. But I did think he did a better job in that one specific area of his game of kind of taking what he got in the Georgia game.
Todd McShay
I saw. But yes, yes, I agree. I saw there were some cool things that I. That I, like, started to appreciate. Right. One of the cool things was, and I mentioned that 4. 404 remaining third quarter against Colorado State. It was 38 to nothing. The hanging on the tick too long, remember? And then. And then drilled it. Great throw. Sharp throw, accurate ball. Jonte Cook takes it inside the 10. They come back UTSA and now it's middle of the second quarter. It's or 12, 12, 19. Second quarter. Same concept as that one in the third quarter of Colorado State. Same concept. Rolling right a little bit again, but this time comes off the initial read faster and. And makes the completion. It's the same throw, same movement, same everything I saw to tick faster. And I'm like, that's cool because, you know, like. So they go and study the Colorado State tape. And like, you're gonna play, right? He's listening, Sark. And like, we gotta get this ball. We're tick late. Quarter count late. Let's go. I saw so like. And I saw little pieces of that as we went through, but then just a little bit later, same quarter, second quarter, UTSA. It was 415, Randy. Second quarter. Took a sack. All his fault. Locks onto his primary too long on the right side. He's got a cat blitz. Corner blitz coming off the backside edge. His. His protection. So it's his responsibility. And I'm watching it. I'm literally watching it. I'm like, oh, shit, here we go. And it was whack. And find me a quarterback from like Marino to. To Elway to the Mannings, to Brady to every great one. We. They it's all happened. And, and as you get older and you get more reps and you, you learn like the mental clock how to get the ball out. You. It's still going to happen every once in a while you're going to get fooled. But it happens fewer and farther between. Right? Yeah. I mean I, you take it wherever you want to go.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Well, I would say that that is an issue for him in terms of recognizing pressures and how he's going to beat those pressures. And there's a couple times where I thought he had numbers to one side of the field and he was locked on the other side of the field and pressure came in a certain direction. Just stuff like that. They're, you know, the nuances of the game. That's only, look, there's, they come with more experience. There was two things. There was that to me where you know the mental part of, you know, picking up pressures and, and then there's also. I thought that his, his, his ball placement was inconsistent to me and I give younger quarterbacks the benefit of the doubt with those. In terms of. I think it's different when you're the starter, you get to settle down, whereas when you go in, I don't know what necessarily a player's mentality is in that situation. They might be pressing a little bit, they might be over excited bit. I think that can affect your accuracy. I think that, you know, as you get more snaps, you're going to get better at reading pressures. All these things are related to inexperience and that's what I'm, I'm looking at him and a lot of the negatives to me are just inexperienced because again we already, we already talked about how he's got all the skills, but we don't. This is the thing about it and this is what goes back to my initial comments after you spoke. We don't know yet. My thought process is with you right now and that it is inexperience. And when he gets more snaps and when he gets to settle in and be the guy and he knows that he's the guy now, he's not coming in and filling in for Quinn Ewers like this is his team now and he's not worried about what he's going to do in terms of plays, he can go out, execute, figure out when he can push, when he can try to make plays downfield, all the stuff that comes with that will it all come together for him. There's certainly every reason in the world to be optimistic about it and to Be excited about it. I am excited about this player, but until I see it on a little more consistent basis, until I see some more, some more snaps. Because we've seen this before, not necessarily at this level. I think this is other quarterback studies on steroids, to be honest. But you know, if you look at Connor Wegman from Texas A and M last year he was in a lot of first round mocks and by the third or fourth game of the season he's on the bench and he's now playing for the Houston Cougars and he has. We'll see what he does this year. I'm excited to see what he does and if he can bounce back. But you don't know. And again, look at Texas's situation along the offensive line. Three, you could say four new starters. With Goosby, I think maybe it's three new starters. One, whatever. We want to look at it. There's a lot of things in flux at Texas with receivers and the offensive line. And how's that all going to come together for him and, and what's that going to mean in terms of his momentum and development? There's a lot of stuff here.
Todd McShay
Yeah. Yes.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's so many moving parts that have a hard time saying that he should be the first overall prospect.
Todd McShay
Understood. I'll come back to that in a second. And I don't think you're wrong. And that actually like I. There's. I'm not ignoring it. I just want to, I want to interject one thing that actually speaks exactly to what you're saying. I mentioned those 70 key plays right where. And they're like essentially you can watch the 233 plays and what you're going to wind up writing the notes on from those 70 key plays. It's important for our audience to understand 56 of those 70 key plays were against Colorado State, UTSA, Louisiana, Monroe and a putrid Mississippi State horrid 105 and.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Passing yards allowed per game last year.
Todd McShay
And I can remember telling like Nico Yamaliava, remember we were kind of making, making the joke and not laughing at him but kind of just like it is what it is like over overshooting the, the receiver down the field, throwing down the back of the end zone running free. And I said to you at that point this isn't like November. My, my goal like Mississippi State's defense is horrid. And they were. So the reason I say that is the 56 of those 70 clips were against those teams. Now there were 16 plays or no, sorry, 14 plays that were against Georgia the first time around. Five, but only five key plays. Florida, four key plays. A&M one, Georgia. Second time around, the SEC championship game. One, Clemson, CFP two, Ohio State, CFP one. Okay, and then let's, let's. Let's whittle it down a little bit further. Drill in. Six of those were running plays. Of those 14, six were running plays. Two worst design passes that were sacks. He was one of four passing and one was. One of the key plays was a handoff. The running back actually muffed the handoff. It wasn't his fault, but who cares? It was a handoff. Not a lot to go off of, right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
Yeah, not a lot to go off. So that's. That is like. That's slamming down the gavel for your point.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right?
Todd McShay
But I want to reopen it.
Mel Kiper Jr.
We're not that far off, by the way. I'm super excited about the player. I am super excited about the player. I just get. I get worried, man.
Todd McShay
Your honor. Like, I don't. I don't want a final judgment yet. Like, I still have a couple arguments to make, you know. No, but it's a very realistic, grounded point that you're making. It is. My point in leading this is. I'm not. And I didn't mention it. And I purposely didn't mention it. I would put him. But I would put him number one overall going into 2026, and I'd get more clicks on my mock draft and I'd get more clicks on my top 100. And I. And we could do all these shows on. Arch is going to be the number one. Even though we know in the back of our brains it's not likely, but it's just not the show we're doing. It's not the people we are. It's not how we've built the credibility in this business that we've built, right? So while I say I have enough because I know he's the most talented quarterback of the guys that we're going to be talking about in 2026, I'm not. I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna do it because, A, we haven't seen enough, but B, I want to look at the big picture. And the big picture is he is a Manning. He is making multiple million millions of dollars next year. He has Manning, Manning family funding. There is no rush. And. And I promise you, like, no one involved, from Archie to Eli to Peyton to Cooper, to Arch himself, because he's grown up in this family and he's learned to certainly Sark is in a rush. No one's in a rush. And here's the other thing to remember. We talk about the parcels. 23, 24, 25, whatever that number is. That numbers is. You would think in modern day that we would. Oh, the number's coming down. You could play 19. It's going up because guys, we're, we're stacking data each and every year. And so when we see a Jaden Daniels in the 56 starts or whatever he had, and we see a Bo Nicks in his 63 or 64 starts and we see the success they had as rookies and they were more successful than guys that didn't play as many had. Have as many starts. I want people to understand, Arch, even if they have a. What was the most games last year was Ohio State? Seventeen. I think 17 was the most.
Mel Kiper Jr.
That sounds right. Yes.
Todd McShay
I think let's call it 17. Let's say Texas goes on an awesome run, they win a national championship. He plays, he starts 17 games. You know how many starts you'd have going in the league?
Mel Kiper Jr.
16. Yeah, I know you're right.
Todd McShay
He, he. If he, if he started 17 games, let's say he won all of them. So he'd be 19. 0 as a starter. But you know how many starts he'd have?
Mel Kiper Jr.
19.
Todd McShay
19.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Todd McShay
And I don't. Yeah, my, my experience and I don't know, like, I met Peyton, I met Eli. I know, Honestly, I know Archie the best. Like, we text, we texted a lot of years about the man in camp and all that stuff and trying to help make sure he's got all the players there, but I know them through a lot of other people, too. And I have a lot of, like, good stories and experiences lived through the, the eyes and brains of other people. I just know, I just know that family when it comes to these type of matters. I don't pretend to know the Manning family and what goes on at dinner there, but I know, I know their, their view on, on, on football in the, in the world. And their grandson, who's this unbelievably talented player. We started this whole show off with his, his traits. His traits are phenomenal. I don't think that they're going to want him to go into the league after 19 starts. And it's probably more likely to be 16, 17 starts. Right. Do you.
Mel Kiper Jr.
There's one caveat to that. Right.
Todd McShay
Okay.
Mel Kiper Jr.
And I think it's about timing.
Unknown Speaker 2
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Mel Kiper Jr.
The jets have a terrible year and they have the first overall pick in the 2026 draft. I think Archman is going back to Texas. If he's gonna, if he's the guy that, if he could be the first overall pick, he's going back to Texas. Now if you go into that draft and you know that the Rams might be able to trade up to that first overall pick, or Minnesota has a terrible year and somehow ends up with the first overall pick, which I think is highly unlikely. But if you find a situation where you've got a play caller, you've got an organization, you've got decision makers that you like and think are a good landing spot for him, I think the game changes a little bit. I think you're, you're now looking at it a little bit differently and saying to yourself, we'd love for Arch to go back for another season, but then we don't really know where he's going to go. You give yourself that two year window, I think. Whereas if you go, if he. Let's say that arch has that 170 year, he has a great year. We still want him to go back for another season. We still want him to get more seasoning, more developing, all of that stuff. Sark is the best. Let's, let's do that. But all of a sudden Kevin o' Connell has the first overall pick in this draft and you don't know if you're going to get a guy like that the next, next time around. Then I'm starting to think a lot.
Todd McShay
About what about Sean McVeigh with two first round picks.
Mel Kiper Jr.
That's what I mean. Sean McVeigh said the same thing. If the Rams trade up too.
Todd McShay
Yeah, these are the names.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Who else you got? You got like Shanahan McVeigh.
Todd McShay
Yep.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Again, I like the chance. A lot happens in a single year in football, man. So much happens that I think there are, there are certain situations that seem unlikely now, but they could.
Todd McShay
Yeah. I'm not saying to totally rule it out. Like, I'm not saying. I absolutely know that he's not. I'm just saying I'm not ready to start getting clickbait and all that.
Mel Kiper Jr.
No, no, you're right. You're.
Todd McShay
You're throwing him in my 2026 way too early mock draft. And I promise you, when I come out in August and I do the appropriately, appropriately early mock draft after we've done all this tape study and I feel better about the players that I'm putting in the first round, I'm not putting them in there either because, no, as of right now, we don't know. But if you hear November and December.
Mel Kiper Jr.
That he might be, then you'll start adding him in. You're, you're going to do it based on the most likely of possibilities, what you're hearing, what you're seeing, all of that stuff right now, the odds are better that he goes back. I think I agree with you. I do think there's situations where he could come, could come out, but I think it's unlikely. Like you were saying, I, I think.
Todd McShay
I think developing a quarterback is a process.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yes.
Todd McShay
And I think that they've had all along and I don't think it's like some, some sinister plan that the Mannings have plotted and they've worked behind the scenes. Nah, that may come in 2026 or 2027 trying to get him on the right team. There was a massively failed attempt by Shador Sanders in his camp and his father specifically with, with Coach Prime. I think he would be willing to admit that at this point because they overvalued. They, they, they thought they had the hammer, that they could drop it and they just didn't. They never had the hammer. I'm saying at some point, based off of what I'm seeing, I think the Mannings are once again like they did with Eli. They had with Eli, they're going to have the hammer. And so you know, Seth Wickersham, that article was interesting. Seth, as I mentioned, friend of the show. I can't wait to read, to read the book that comes out and I wrote it down. It's a good name too. It's the Kings.
Mel Kiper Jr.
The American Kings. That biography of the quarterback.
Todd McShay
Yes. And so that's coming out soon. I'm excited to read it. But part of the article that came out and obviously they're trying to get attention for the book as they well should and I'm sure it's phenomenal. Like, Seth doesn't do anything half assed. Seth like gets great information, but part of that was talking about Caleb Williams and his, his father and reaching out to Archie because why wouldn't you? And the collective bargaining agreement and how it's, it's just not right. It's not American. And trying to circumvent the, the Bears drafting him and Caleb didn't want to go there. And honestly, for good reasons. Like, you got, you got a defensive coach in Eber Flutes, you've got Shane Waldron who just wasn't proven enough. And I, I remember having conversations saying. I'm not saying Waldron can't do it. Wouldn't, Wouldn't be the guy. Now they got the guy Ben Johnson. So that's all to come.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, I'm not, I'm not talking about manipulating it, by the way, or, or, or doing something. I'm just saying if you're reading the field and you have an opportunity for your, your grandson, your son, your, your nephew to go to a great spot, you maybe take advantage of that so you don't have to worry about all the stuff down the, down the road. You know what I mean? You could keep him in for another two years and then get into a situation where he's such an elite prospect that then you try to figure out where he's going to go with the same way that they did with Eli. I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is that if you, you can avoid all of that. If in the 2026 draft, some one of these teams goes up and, and is in a spot where you like where he's going to go, then maybe you consider him coming out. The other stuff we'll see, that's going to all unfold on its own in its own time.
Todd McShay
I don't disagree that it will, it will probably, there will probably be a conversation depending on those circ.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
And depending on how, how Arch plays this next season. But I think much more likely. And I, and I would be shocked if I talked to Archie this summer and he would never show. But like, if, if you were to get the actual behind this, if this wasn't like, this is about the process and the process of developing a quarterback who has the tools to be great. And we're both agreeing he's got the tools to be great. And so like, I can't imagine a human being in the world would have better circumstances to develop that talent and to bring that greatness out, whether it's what you know from, from the uncles that you can lean on to the grandfather you can lean on to the experience that they have to, to hand picking Coach Sarkeesian, who's one of the most, you know, put them in the very short list of the most like, like perfectly equipped human beings on this planet in the college game to develop as a head coach to the talent that Texas has to the resources, external and internal, that this young man has. And that's why I'm saying like I, I, I, I'm, I, I feel like I'm be shocked if he won't be the number one overall pick whatever year that is. But the Mannings are looking at this as a process. Just like you hear like Nick Saban, like, it's the process. And the, and that was step one. The 233 snaps, the 70 key plays, the 90 pass attempts, the 17 runs. That was step one. Step two is now. And you got to a lot of it. But this is what I wrote down. Step two is now you're the guy, okay? And all the pressures of being the guy because they didn't, I don't know how they did it, but they put him in some bubble wrap in Austin in that media market for that team with the struggles and the injuries that that starting quarterback was having and how like there were times when Quinn Ewers became a liability and certainly wasn't an asset. And they beautifully. It's one of the best things that Coach Sark did and he did a lot of phenomenal things to get in that Texas program where it got last year, wins and losses and the run and consistency.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's, it started with the high school recruitment. I mean, he's, he should be. His high school recruitment should have been all over the news every single day. They kept his Instagram on private. They, he had a Twitter account that he didn't use for like eight months. The head coach at Isadore Newman played with Cooper and Peyton knew the family well. They didn't let him do a lot of interviews. They didn't have a lot of public nil talk they have made. And by the way, you could criticize it, I think you could say that, you know, maybe you need to expose him a little bit more. I would say if that's my kid, I'm doing the exact same way. I would do it the exact same way. They've done it so far. They've done a good job of. Because, I mean, we've gone over it. His grandfather is Archie Manning, his uncle's hall of Fame quarterbacks. You look at this, the, the exposure, the how big of a story this kid is as a high school player coming out and trying to keep him grounded, trying to remind him that this is about becoming a better quarterback. It's not about branding. It's not about having your name all over the place. It's about being a better football player. And it's. To me, they've handled it super well up to this point. But now, you know, now it's a different story. Now you are the starting quarterback for the Texas Longhorns and it's going to be a different level exposure, and there's no reason to believe he won't be able to handle it. There's no reason that he's. That he's mature enough to step into that limelight. We'll see. We'll see. But there's no reason to be sitting here and be like, no, it's not going to work out.
Todd McShay
Now, everyone who's been. Has had his hands on, on this situation with Arch, with this development of Arch has been someone who's trusted and it's to get him to this very moment.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right?
Todd McShay
But now the bubble wrap comes off and now it's all on him. And while the Sanders family raced to the commercials and the social media and embrace that it's one way to do it, they. They have not. But now you can't protect them. And that's fine because. Because like all of us, we, we hit a certain point in our development, you know, fly away, fly away bird. Right. And. But it's not just even about that, but that's a big part of it. It's also about, all right, now we got week in, weekend, week in, week out grind and leveling up. It ain't going to be Colorado State, UTSA Ulm Ulm and Mississippi State's bad defense. It's going to be Georgia, Florida, whoever's on the schedule. You know, it's going to be Bama and like, whoever it is. So, so that's the second part. The third part is how do you handle the weekly installs? Right? And, and, and he had a. He had a tiny little, you know, install package every week. You know what I mean? Like. Right.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's not the same thing, man.
Todd McShay
It's not the same thing. So, so weekly installs and adjusting to these defenses that are great. Right? What do you like?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Who. Texas, you know who Texas opens up with?
Todd McShay
Who?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Ohio State.
Todd McShay
Perfect.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Here we go, man.
Todd McShay
The bubble wraps off and so. Yeah, and then, and then, and then.
Mel Kiper Jr.
How do we get Florida a couple weeks later? It's. Yeah, man, it's.
Todd McShay
So how do we speed. How do we speed up those reads with the. And I saw against Georgia, like, It was moving faster and he was relying more on his legs because he. You can't probably. You don't have the time you had against Ulm and utsa. Okay. And faster defenses like that Georgia stuff, it stood out. And, and how do you, how do you make NFL throws with anticipation? Consistently now I saw flashes, but now it's consistently. And it's week in, week out against that faster competition with more running through your brain, with media flocking to your locker room because you can't be protected anymore. You know, all of that. All things I'm certain he has been trained since childhood to be ready and has had the supporting cast unlike any other to handle this moment. And I believe he's going to. And that's why I could, I could put a stamp on him and be like, 20, 26, number one overall prospect. Come read my article. Come click on my top 100. Come click on my mock draft. But I'm not going to do it because I think there's a step three. Step three, if necessary. And I believe the Mannings view it as necessary unless otherwise notified. Is the 2026 season when you've got a rinse, refine and repeat. And that takes your starts from 17, 18, 19 to 35, 36 somewhere. You know what I mean? And, and, and, and, and you're now facing SEC coordinators who have seen you as a starter and now know your tendency. So now you, now we're playing a chess game. Now they know what you do well. Now they know that you like to bail out to your left or you, you 10 have a tendency to make this read on that look. Now they're going to throw more. So it's like last year was the 101 version. Now we're into like chemistry 102 or 201.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, that makes me up, too, when I was in college, but go ahead.
Todd McShay
Yeah. Then, then, then 2026 is going to become 301. And then I think the Mannings after you. If you pass step three, then it's, well, you don't have a choice. But at that point, Arch knows he's ready.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, that's where I hear you, man.
Todd McShay
Oh, Lance, I want to finish on this. It took me a while to figure out what the hat was because I look up.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yes.
Todd McShay
Screen and it's kind of in my eyes. I guess I'm starting too much tape. Peron's Gourmet Italian already. Marissa's family.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Todd McShay
Like there's some other sauces I won't mention. Name. I'M a. I'm the sauce guy in our family, right? And I met my wonderful fiance, Marissa, and. And I, I'm still the sauce guy in this house, but I am not the sauce guy in the family. The Peron.
Mel Kiper Jr.
No, no.
Todd McShay
Yeah. That's like generations, okay? Peron Perrone sauces are phenomenal. And Stevie, right, Mercer's dad, who's family amazing guy, took over for grand. His grandfather, who they had. They had restaurants all throughout Greenville. Like, they were the first major restaurants in Greenville. They had on the corner multiple restaurants and VIP clubs. Like, they're. They're like, they're. They're baked into the history of green.
Mel Kiper Jr.
The grandfather on the jar, right? That's a picture.
Todd McShay
The grand grandfather on the jar. I don't know if we can pull up the picture. Can you see it there?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yep, there he is.
Todd McShay
So looks like you go to Niro Peron Gourmet Italian dot com. You can. And they're now they're doing shipping all around the country. They're growing. They're kind of like this, this McShay show, like a mo. Like, you know, we got Greenville and Family, but the mom, the Mama's Classic Marinara, they just started like, that's their. And they've got five different sauces.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Signature sauce. Yeah.
Todd McShay
Oh. What do you think? Did you try it?
Mel Kiper Jr.
I loved it. I mean, I. They sent me a nice care package with this hat and the sauce. They.
Todd McShay
So the story is Michael. No, Michael, who's Marissa's brother, is kind of now like next in line. Like grandfather passed down to Steve. Now Michael's now working with him. Now they're opening up a. A storefront. They're gonna have food and, and all these, all the hats are awesome. I'll have to wear mine soon.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Todd McShay
So. So thank you, Michael.
Mel Kiper Jr.
And they're for big heads, man. If you're. If you're like me and you got a big head, that fits, man, I love that.
Todd McShay
Unlike the. So go ahead.
Mel Kiper Jr.
They sent the hat, they sent the sauce. Really nice note. I started making the sauce and my wife came down. Iris came down and was like, what smells so good? And then, you know, this is how you know it's good. Well, I shouldn't say that. If Iris likes it, you know, it's good. But I will say that the five year old, My five year old daughter Stella had the sauce and was like, this is awesome. I mean, she wanted more. Couldn't stop eating it. It's great. We just. I just threw. There's some great recipes on the website. I didn't have time or skill to do all that stuff, but you should check it out if you can. I just threw it on the pasta and it was. It was delicious, man. It was great.
Todd McShay
So we. We've got a little anecdote here. We've got a. Marissa's got her grandfather's cookbook. Right. Like any good Italian chef or, you know, it, like, like the best meatballs I've ever had. Like, it's just classic, the, like, the best of the best. But we try to follow these. These recipes, and there's like. It's like throwing, you know, throwing right into that pinch of this.
Mel Kiper Jr.
But.
Todd McShay
But beyond that, it's like we need veal and, and. And this. This kind of meat, but there's never any amounts, right? Because, like, when you. When you're. When you cook like that and you're brilliant at it, and it's passed down to Steve and now to Michael and, and Michael's helping take the business, and they're going to. They're going to grow it. And it's honestly, like, they're. They're my family now. And to see, like, Michael leave his. His profession and doing, like, the corporate and all that stuff and now, like, keeping it in the. It's so cool, right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Todd McShay
And they're just wonderful, wonderful people who have brought me into their family and have been nothing but supportive and loving the whole time. But it's cool to see them now, like, working together like it's a dream, right? Father and son taking over the grandfather's business and empire they had in Greenville, South Carolina, and now they're taking it national. Right. And so I love it. Not only should, but so it's just really cool to see that. And I'm. I'm psyched that you got the package, and I'm glad that now it's. It's in the Mensch family.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Oh, we'll be getting some more here.
Todd McShay
In the McShay family. And, yeah, if you can support them, please do. Like I. I tell Steve, I told Steve, get off my grill or you go cook it once. I, I don't mess around with food and sauces, but I do have to take a back seat to. To the Perrone family when it comes to sauces.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's good, man.
Todd McShay
And, and it's. It's really cool to see that now that you got a taste of it. And again, it's Peron. Perones. P E R O N E S Gourmet Italian is the website. So go. And if you're a supporter of the show. Let's support the Perons. Like they're. They're starting to take it to another level, just like we're trying to grow this to another level. So let's all get involved, help out, jump on, get, order some sauces. Maybe they'll throw my. Hey, Michael, I'm gonna get you in trouble already, buddy. Yeah, let's get. We'll get a code. Next show, we'll get a code. And if you order off of the McShay show and off of the. The billboard, that is Mensch. If you order off of the billboard that is mensch.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I'm not sure I feel about.
Todd McShay
Michael owes you a hat. All right, I promise that this wasn't going to take an hour. It's an hour and three minutes by my clock.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It was ours. It was.
Todd McShay
I love it. Summer scouting series has kicked off. Awesome way to start it. I think we've explained the whole thing. We'll be back on Thursday if you want to watch again. If you want to check out the full scouting. It's not even scouting. It's like my notes, and it's kind of fun to read through. It's kind of crazy, but it's an explanation and I appreciate that match, but it's the McShade report. Just Google it and subscribe. If you're not already subscribed, you can subscribe for free. If you want to get the whole thing, you gotta throw it in a little scratch for it. But we appreciate all the support. We love you, Perrones and, and I love you, Mensch for, for being part of the family and, and doing the right thing. So this is awesome. And we'll be back on Thursday. See you must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18+ and present in D.C. gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincenectic or visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit Gambling Helpline ma.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York, it.
Podcast Summary: The McShay Show – "Is Arch Manning the Real Deal? Let’s Check the Tape!"
Release Date: May 19, 2025
Host: Todd McShay
Analyst: Mel Kiper Jr.
Duration: Approximately 1 hour and 3 minutes
[01:06] Todd McShay
Todd McShay kicks off the episode by announcing the launch of the summer scouting series, focusing on providing an inside look into the NFL draft process well before the official events begin. He emphasizes that while the public perceives the draft to start in January, NFL scouts have been evaluating talent since now.
"We're sure as hell not going to go dark on you right now."
— Todd McShay [01:06]
[02:05] Todd McShay & Mel Kiper Jr.
The discussion shifts to Texas quarterback Arch Manning. McShay highlights Arch’s playing time, noting his 233 snaps, 90 passing attempts, and 107 dropbacks across key plays. They analyze his performance metrics to evaluate his readiness for the NFL.
"Arch Manning... has 90 passing attempts."
— Todd McShay [04:05]
[07:57] Todd McShay
McShay and Kiper discuss their scouting methodologies, drawing parallels between their evaluation processes and those used by NFL scouts. They stress the importance of cross-checking perspectives from different regions to form a holistic assessment of a player's potential.
"This is the healthy part of the evaluation process."
— Todd McShay [07:57]
[12:42] Mel Kiper Jr.
The analysts delve into Arch Manning’s gameplay, praising his physical tools—size, arm strength, and mobility. However, they also identify areas needing improvement, such as his ability to recognize defensive pressures and maintain consistent ball placement under duress.
"This is NFL stuff... if you can do that a consistent basis, you're gonna have a long ass career in the NFL, man."
— Mel Kiper Jr. [26:04]
Throughout [25:01]
A significant portion of the conversation revolves around the legacy of the Manning family. They compare Arch to his uncles Peyton and Eli, discussing how family support and historical precedents influence his development and draft projections. The discussion touches on the "parses theory," where extensive college starts correlate with NFL readiness.
"The history of the Mannings... It's the old parcels theory..."
— Todd McShay [25:01]
[38:00] Todd McShay & [22:32] Mel Kiper Jr.
A lively debate ensues regarding Arch’s potential as the number one overall pick in the 2026 draft. McShay advocates for his top position based on his undeniable talent and supportive environment, while Kiper urges caution, emphasizing the need for more consistent performance and experience before making such projections.
"I'd have no problem sleeping easy at night writing Arch Manning number one overall prospect."
— Todd McShay [25:42]
"I just don’t... I haven’t seen enough. I need more."
— Mel Kiper Jr. [22:32]
[43:09] Todd McShay & [44:36] Mel Kiper Jr.
They explore various future scenarios, including Arch potentially declaring for the draft earlier if certain team dynamics change (e.g., trades involving the Rams or Jets). The conversation underscores the unpredictability of draft projections and the multitude of variables that can influence a player's draft stock.
"I think developing a quarterback is a process."
— Todd McShay [46:57]
"It's so many moving parts that have a hard time saying that he should be the first overall prospect."
— Mel Kiper Jr. [37:58]
[50:24] Todd McShay
Todd wraps up by reiterating Arch Manning’s exceptional tools and the advantageous environment provided by the Manning family and Texas' coaching staff. While he remains optimistic about Arch’s future, McShay emphasizes the importance of observing his development over the upcoming season before finalizing draft projections.
"If you can do that a consistent basis, you're gonna have a long ass career in the NFL, man."
— Todd McShay [58:00]
"We do this to prepare as a foundation for Arch’s scouting report... a two year window."
— Mel Kiper Jr. [50:24]
Todd McShay [01:06]:
"As promised, It's Monday. It's May 19, and today we kick off our summer scouting series with a player that may or may not be a part of the 2026 draft class, Texas quarterback Arch Manning."
Mel Kiper Jr. [04:33]:
"We're going to get into 90 passing attempts, right? I think he had 90 passing attempts."
Todd McShay [25:42]:
"I'd have no problem sleeping easy at night writing Arch Manning number one overall prospect in the 2026 draft, even though I saw 70 key plays, even though I saw 90 pass attempts."
Mel Kiper Jr. [22:32]:
"I'm not ready. I just don't. And we're gonna get into this now. I'm not ready to go there."
In this episode, Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. provide an in-depth analysis of Arch Manning's capabilities and potential trajectory into the NFL. They balance their admiration for his natural talents and the structured support system provided by his family with a cautious approach that acknowledges the need for further performance consistency. The conversation offers listeners a nuanced perspective on what it takes to elevate a collegiate quarterback to top-tier NFL prospect status.
Note: This summary excludes advertisement segments and personal anecdotes unrelated to the core content of the episode to maintain focus on the primary discussion points.