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Todd McShay
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Mel Kiper Jr.
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Todd McShay
This is the McShay Show. Appreciate you all being here on tap today. We've got Fox lead college football analyst Joel Klatt here to preview his game and the biggest game in the college football slate, it's Ohio State. At Penn State, we might get into Shador Sanders and the NFL draft prospects as well. Beyond that, Mench and I are going to go through my top 12 in the college football rankings this week. He'll dissect it, I'll defend it. And finally, the quarterback position. Who's QB3? Forget about QB1. Who's QB3 in this year's NFL Draft class? It's Week 10 in college football, Week 9 in the NFL and men's just 179 days away from the 2025 NFL Draft. Men, you're good.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I'm good, man.
Todd McShay
All right, play that beat. Let's go. All right. I don't ever want to be the, that sits around and goes through. These are my top 12. And let's go through each team and look at who they're playing. You know, let's just not be that. Okay. But what I do want to do, we've got the playoff release coming up next week. The rankings, the first ranking show. Right. And I want to go first of all through some of the dynamics, like what's coming up. You've got the first, first official top 12 release on Tuesday, November 5th. It's coming up at 7pm Eastern Time. This is the first year, remember that there's a 12 team playoff and that since system replaced, you know, the, the BCS going back to 2014, the five highest ranked conference champions and the next seven highest ranked teams will be in the playoffs. So that's the dynamic, that's how it's going to flow, that's how it's going to work. And then let me read this off. The four highest ranked conference champions will be seeded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and will receive buys in the first round. Okay, you follow me here? Yep. Good. The remaining eight teams, I could tell by the look on your face, the remaining eight teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded five through 12 based on their, their, their final rankings. Okay. If the fifth conference champion is not ranked among the top 12 teams, it will be seated number 12. So that, with all of that stuff aside, I think we get the picture. Right. Right. Let's go through this. And again, I don't want to sit here and rank all the top 12 teams. For me personally, I've always looked at it like, how do you rank these teams? There's so much data out there. There's all these different, you know, the committee has all the things that they go through. I've always looked at it. Not to boil it down just to two things, but a heavy emphasis on these two things. The first is strength of record. You know, there's strength of schedule, there's all these different components and data points you can look at. But strength of record tells me without having to go and click through every single team, their schedule and who those teams have played like that does it for you. So to this point, who, who's played the strongest, you know, competition, who's been able to handle that competition on what level and all that thing and then combine that with the talent level. Right. What's the talent level of the team? And I think, I'm not put, I'm not saying that we're, we're the foremost authority and who has the most talented. But I think, you know, I put us up against a lot of people, we watch a lot of tape and we understand these rosters for the most part. So with that is the backdrop and it was a big backdrop and I apologize. I want to tear this thing one and two for me. Oregon, Georgia. Okay. Oregon fourth. Strength of record. Georgia first. Strength of record. Two of the premier teams in terms of talent. What we've seen on the field, I don't think anyone's going to. Going to disagree with that. So maybe you'd have Georgia one or. But. But exactly. There you go. So Oregon, Georgia, we're going to put as a top tier right now. What's interesting to me now is there's a second tier. Okay. And I'm going to list up the teams I have in this tier and I'm sure we'll have a graphic that goes up to support it and all that. But I'm going to list off these teams and we can just discuss where they belong from three through seven. Okay. Okay. I've got Miami at three, Penn State at four, Texas at five. A&M moving all the way up to six and then Ohio State at seven. Now the first thing that obviously jumps out to me about this is that at Penn State at 4, Ohio State at 7. We're going to get some answers this Saturday. Right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
So with Miami, Penn State, Texas, Texas A and M and Ohio State as my rankings, what jumps out to you mentioned?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Am worried about my recency bias and it just feels like after that Saturday night game, are you too low on a M? And when you look at their one loss, season over opener against a Notre Dame team.
Todd McShay
I bumped him up six, man.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I know, I know. But I'm looking at it from a big picture. You start looking at these other teams, Miami. You look at Miami and I'm not sure who, not only who, they've beaten a good Louisville team. Close game. They did Cal by one point. They're a. They're a replay that. A replay away from losing to Virginia Tech that. I mean, do you remember that game the catch late.
Todd McShay
Of course.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I mean that if that. Exactly. If that doesn't go their way. They've got a loss against Virginia Tech. I like Miami, I like their backfield. They got some talented receivers. They got Cam Ward, they got some guys to get after the quarterback. I look at their schedule and some of their wins and I wonder if three's not a little too high for them.
Todd McShay
I can live with that. I. I struggle with that. I mean, the strength of record is 2, but. But it doesn't take into account how close they were to losing two games, really. Right. So I, I can live with that. I think that's debatable. But. But I do. I do like this tier.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Like, even I'm good with the tier.
Todd McShay
Because. Because after this tier and we'll kind of get into a more. But we're talking about Tennessee, byu, Iowa State, Notre Dame, India. Like, to me, there's a clean. Tennessee is the one. And we can argue, does Tennessee belong in this tier? It's Arkansas loss.
Mel Kiper Jr.
The Arkansas loss makes it tough to put him in there.
Todd McShay
Yeah, And. And they'll have the opportunity. I mean, all they got to do is win at Georgia and take care of the rest.
Mel Kiper Jr.
That's all.
Todd McShay
That's all they do. And, and they'll. And they'll shut everybody up and, and, and, you know, and have the opportunity to be in the playoff.
Mel Kiper Jr.
But you do love the talent on that team, and we've talked about that team a fair amount. Quarterback is inconsistent, but uber talented. And you look at the way they run the ball, their, Their defensive depth up front. I mean, I think eight's fair. I don't think it's too high or too low. I think that's right where they should be.
Todd McShay
Yeah, I, Yeah, I think it's fair, too. I. The. The nice part about all this is with Penn State at 4 and Ohio State 7, we're going to get some answers. As I said this Saturday, Texas and Texas A M, there's a lot of ball to be played between now and. What is it, November 30, I want to say, when, when they face off. I also, like, don't be shocked, Mensch, if this, we see this as back to back. If we see them in the, in this game, the rivalry, you know, Texas, Texas A and M renewed and then. And then a week later in Atlanta.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right. I mean, I would love that. I mean, what more could you ask for?
Todd McShay
I mean, I mean, I love that there's. Georgia gets knocked off and has a second loss. A and M wins out to that point. Texas wins out to that point. Close game. You know, there's a chance. There's a chat. I'm not saying it's. It's probable, but there's a chance we could see a rematch. But regardless, at least we see those two teams, two of the top three SEC teams in this top seven that we're talking about will wind up going. Going up against one another.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, I would love that. I Mean, just, I think that's what's great about the conference realignments, is you can get these massive rematches between these powerhouses. So that, I mean, to me, that would be great.
Todd McShay
A M is fascinating to me, too, because we talked about it a lot on the Saturday night show, and I, I brought up with, with you and Rossillo. Marcel Reed, phenomenal, right? He comes into the game, seven points scored in, in three and a half or two and a half quarters and comes in and they score five touchdowns. He scored three touchdowns in his first, like, 12 plays. I think it was 12, 13 plays. And so. And like, talk about maybe the greatest, like, quarterback insertion since Nick Saban, you know, with the tuatanga by Loa, right? I mean, Jalen hurts. So it was a phenomenal move at the right time, and it worked brilliantly for Elko. But now you, you spin it forward. Are they gonna. He, he was only two of two passing, and we've seen him in other games. Like, there's, there's ability there, but how much do they trust him in the passing game? How balanced are they going to be in the passing game? Does he just take off? You know? Right. Maybe. Maybe he takes off and he's the next young star in college football. So, like, I want more info. Yeah. A and M for a long time was just so much bluster, right? Great recruiting classes, Jimbo Fisher, fast talking. Just didn't trust the program. Didn't trust them in big moments. Now I just look at them differently. Don't you? Yeah. This is a damn good football team. Like, coached. They're coached well. They're more disciplined. They've got all those five stars. Some of them took off and went to other places. And you know what? They probably weeded out some guys that they didn't want there. Right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
I mean, that's a defensive front. Watching that defensive front the other night.
Todd McShay
Nick Scorton has been. I mean, I know Abdul Carter's your guy, and I'm not, I'm not planting any flag today, right? But Nick Scorn is, is, if not the, the best, but is up there in the top two or three edge, edge defenders in the 20, 25 class. So I don't know. I just, I, I, all of a sudden I'm just, I'm so intrigued. I'm just being honest. I always looked at A M like, yeah, is there a better game? Is there a better game on? Like, I just kind of know what I'm gonna get. Like, something's gonna go wrong. Lack of discipline, not Playing up to the level. Frustrating to watch all that stuff, and it's not the case anymore. So this is going to be. It's going to be a fun final month of the season with, with A M in the mix, Texas in the mix, Georgia in the mix, Tennessee still in the mix like this. And, and you still have other really good teams. LSU is a really good team. They're not, They're. They're not gonna, they're not gonna win the sec. They're still a really good football team who could cause. Cause some problems. Ole Miss still a really good team. Could cause some problems.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Dangerous.
Todd McShay
Yeah. We knew the SEC was going to be phenomenal. And, and it is. And in many respects you could look at it and say, well, a little bit disappointing and Ole Miss hasn't played to the level. But. But it's still. Like, there's a lot of ball. Like it's that for the sec. The biggest takeaway for me is like, there's a lot of ball left. Right? There really is. And I, I circle that the two games. I circle Texas, Texas a M on the 30th. I don't have the date right now, but the Tennessee at Georgia is. Is going to be fascinating. And just looking at this week, Georgia, Florida, obviously the rivalry. Georgia's a 16 and a half point favorites, right? Texas, you know, Texas seven and one only. Their only loss. They've got, They've. They're idle this week. They've got the buy. I knew, right? Yeah. So 7 and 1 only lost to Georgia. They got a. And you know what? Let's just get to it for a minute and we'll get to quarterbacks later. I think this team desperately needs the buy. It's timed perfectly.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Oh, 100. I mean, look, Vanderbilt's played. Vanderbilt's, not your grandfather's Vanderbilt.
Joel Klatt
Right.
Todd McShay
They're.
Mel Kiper Jr.
They're a better team than they have historically been. But you lose to Georgia, a tough fashion, and then you go to Vanderbilt and you E1 out. I think it's time to, you know, and then you got Florida coming up. Who's not? Again, that's another team that's a different team than the team that lost to Miami in the open. Florida's kind of got their feet under them. They're a lot more competitive now. It's going to be. It's great for them to get that week off, get a little healthier, kind of, you know, just settle, settle in a little bit there and.
Todd McShay
Well, I, I studied the tape. We'll get to it when we get to the quarterbacks. And I studied the tape. Vanderbilt was a. Let's get through this. Healthy exercise for Steve Sarkin.
Joel Klatt
Right.
Todd McShay
I. I don't have to talk to Sark this week to know exactly what was going on. I watched the tape because I, you know, I watched a game, but I was watching three other games, but I watched a tape last night and it's like, ah, okay, I see. I see what's going on. You know, the Georgia loss. Your quarterback is not 100%. Let's protect this guy. Let's get out of here. Right? Short throws, bubble screens. I went 15, I think 15 plays into the. In the. It was a first throw beyond five yards down the field. Let's run the football. We're going to scheme them up like we're not here. We're not just throwing our helmets on the field. We're going to scheme them up and we're. But we're going to try to gain his confidence a little bit. Right. Quinn Ewers is, you know, been up and down since that injury, the oblique injury. Let's, let's get some confidence going, some efficient reads, get the ball out quickly, and let's, let's let the other athletes try to do what they can do so that we can. We can get out of here with a win. Did you.
Mel Kiper Jr.
What did you think about the two picks? Or you want to get into that later on?
Todd McShay
Yeah, we can get. I mean, you know, the first one was on the rpo, a little bit lazy from Quinn. Defender did a great job last second popping his arm up. Right. Second one was another tip pass. Right. I'm sure I'm blanking right now. I saw it last night, but it was another ball batted in the air. Right. Okay. Not horrible. He could, he could have avoided them. Not horrible, though.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's one of those things when I was watching him because I watched that game. I haven't watched the tape, but I watched the game and I thought the numbers were better than what I was seeing.
Todd McShay
Oh, totally. You know what I mean, dude? His first, like, his first eight or nine throws were, Were behind the line of scrimmage or like, there was one. His first touchdown was a quick out. You know, it was like three.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I didn't come out of that from.
Todd McShay
The other half, so it was a longer throw, but it was still. It was quick game.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I didn't come out of the game and say, oh, he's back. Oh, this is the guy we thought we were going to see. I wasn't disappointed. I wasn't I didn't think the wheels are coming off or anything like that.
Todd McShay
But, but I, but I very much saw a head coach who also is the offensive play caller.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
Let's get out of here live and let's, let's get back to that bye week. We need, we need some, we need to get some things squared away and we need our quarterback to be right for this final stretch. So I'm, I'm fascinated to see Texas coming off the buy. What is, what does the product look like? Is it is a lot more like what we saw early in the season? Yeah. Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
And then until the Texas A and M game, they're, they're in good position. If they can get by Florida, who I think they should get by. I think, you know, they should win that game. They go at Arkansas, Kentucky at home and then the big game, the at Texas A M will give us a lot of answers in terms of what this team's really going to be at the end of the year. Can I, can I get into a couple of the guys you left out? A couple of the teams you left out of the top 12?
Todd McShay
Please do.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Did you consider.
Todd McShay
Well, I haven't even. I mean.
Mel Kiper Jr.
All right, you want to finish up, go ahead, get into your other teams.
Todd McShay
I mean, if, if the audience is going to try to. Not most people are a thinker listening or listening, not watching or whatever the numbers are. But Tennessee we mentioned at 8, BYU at 9. This is the third tier. BYU at 9, Iowa State at 10, Notre Dame at 11 and Indiana at 12. So where, where's your.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I don't, the only one. I don't really have a. I, I, I. Byu. I think the, the Kansas State game. I think that they're a, they're a solid nine. They're a team that coming into the year you just didn't see being this good. I watched a little bit of their defense the other day. They have a couple guys on their front that have a chance to get drafted. They're, that they're a solid nine. I, I don't mind that one. Oh, Iowa State.
Todd McShay
BYU is tricky. I mean they, it is. They beat a good SMU 7 and 1.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
That's a good SMU team.
Mel Kiper Jr.
They've got a couple of.
Todd McShay
Nobody really knows. Just right smoked Kansas State. They didn't just beat and Kansas State is 7 and 1. So that's two teams that you've beaten handily and they deserve to be in there. And, and they have not lost another game, handled ucf. I mean UCF is falling apart. But. But they were, but they were underdogs. They were two underdogs going into that game. And now that the rest of their games are winnable, like, I didn't know a damn thing outside of a couple draft prospects, a damn thing about BYU coming in this year. Right. And I'm looking at their schedule, bud. Utah, Kansas, Arizona State. Is that right? I wrote Kansas twice. I'm an idiot. I mean, this is why you don't, you don't do shows. Okay, whatever their fourth game is. But, but I wrote down all four of them are winnable.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Houston, Utah, Kansas, Arizona State, Houston distracted.
Todd McShay
Monday night in the background, the World Series. So, yeah, I don't know. I. I think they're a fascinating team, probably because of Indiana and some of the other big, big time storylines. I think BYU is kind of getting overlooked this year and Iowa State, both in the Big 12. I agree.
Mel Kiper Jr.
And I don't necessarily. When I was asking you about the two teams that you. That aren't in there, I'm not sure that I would have gotten them in either. I just think it's worth the conversation. You know what I mean? Iowa State's the one team that I think has some talent. I love the two receivers, Higgins and Noel.
Todd McShay
Yeah. Good players, NFL players. Right.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Higgins is a bigger kind of vertical threat, makes contested catches. Noel is the, the smaller slot, kind of built like a running back, but I, I want to watch more of him. But what I've seen so far, he's got some real juice, man. He is explosive. And he made a catch in the North Dakota game that if they're not playing North Dakota might be the catch of the year. It was. He was between two defenders. He's only 5 11, but he's coming down with a ball he had no business catching. So they got some talent. I just don't. I'm not sure I would have them that high based on. On their record. I think their, their biggest win is against. They beat Iowa at Iowa by a point.
Todd McShay
Yep.
Mel Kiper Jr.
So I think there's maybe an argument.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Maybe they're just an argument to having him in there.
Todd McShay
Yeah, I wrote down my notes. Like, best wins, Iowa and ucf. Question mark, question mark. Right. Three points. And the good news is they play Kansas State at the end of the year. I mean, they've got Texas Tech, Kansas, Cincinnati, Utah. I'm not saying they're going to win all of them, but they're all games I believe they'll be favored in. And then Kansas State at the end. So that will weed itself out. What's interesting is the BYU component because they've already beaten Kansas State. They don't play Colorado, you know, and Colorado doesn't play Iowa State or byu. So it's kind of an interesting. I haven't. This is the first time I've really, like, taken a deep dive into the Big 12. And it's only important. Quite honest. Like I said on ROSO the other day, like Tennessee, how deep do you go in the sec? Before you say I don't know if they would win the Big 12.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
I went deep, man.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Todd McShay
I mean, obviously Georgia, I had Texas, Texas A M, Tennessee, Ole Miss. There was one other team that I had. And, and, and I, and I honestly, I don't know if South Carolina might win it. Yeah. So I think you could even.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I mean, you talk about the Big 12. I'm just going to be upfront about. One of the teams I was going to bring up is Clemson. And I don't think they should be in the top 12.
Todd McShay
Not right now, but I think, I think when we get there, if they keep playing like they're playing, I think. I think Clemson will absolutely be in the College Football Playoff. I know I shouldn't say absolutely, but they have the team to belong in the College Football Playoff.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
You know, Miami, we'll see how that plays out.
Mel Kiper Jr.
So. Yeah, that was the other team.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I feel like you're sleeping on Boise State.
Todd McShay
Well, am I?
Mel Kiper Jr.
That's tough. Right? That UNLV team's good.
Todd McShay
But. But you got to remember, we started the segment off because I'm terrible with logistics and all the rules, and I'm just not a rules guy.
Mel Kiper Jr.
You've never been a rules guy?
Todd McShay
No, it's just not my thing. But, But I read all that stuff so people could follow along. But, but we are talking about, you know, the number one, not, you know, not Power four team is gonna gets in, so.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, I mean, they went to Oregon and lost by three. I mean, that's. I know that's earlier in the year and that's when we're all kind of. We're all kind of worried about Oregon, remember?
Todd McShay
Yes.
Mel Kiper Jr.
You know, is this going to be the team that we thought they were going to be coming into the year? And I think a big reason for that was Boise State gave them everything they wanted, everything they could take and more. So when you're looking at that, I don't know, I just think that I get it because the, the week to week, it's not the grind that you're going to get in the SEC or the Big Ten. But that being said, pretty good team. And. And no one has more sacks this year than Boise State. 35 sacks in seven games.
Todd McShay
All right, I'm just reading this again because again, this is not, not my jam. I don't always get the details right when it comes to little things like this. The remaining eight teams is how it reads. And after the top four seats, the remaining eight teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded five through 12 based on their final ranking. If the fifth conference champion, which we're talking right now, potentially Boise State is not ranked among the top 12 teams. So if it comes in, it's ranked 14th or 15th, it bumps up and becomes the 12th seed in the, in the playoff. There we go. All right, Last thing on this Big Ten. Fascinating to me. You got Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan. Not the factor we expected to be Oregon. When I look at Oregon, like, I don't see a way in the world that they're not in. They've got, you know, they've got the wins. Boise State, all of a sudden, that's a good win. Ohio State at home, best win of the year. You could put it up there with, you know, I'm not calling it. Resilo said. Texas, Georgia, I tend to agree, but one of the best wins we've seen in college football this year. Illinois just destroyed a ranked Illinois team. That's a good team. Not a great team, but a good team. Now they're at Michigan. They're at Michigan. It's their hardest remaining game at Michigan coming up. And then Maryland at Wisconsin and Washington. So Oregon is sitting pretty. Penn State, Ohio State, we talked about them. But, but beyond this game, you know, it's, they, they can all, you know, both teams, I think, have a chance to finish the season undefeated beyond this game. I really do. And then Indiana, they're the intriguing one. 10th strength of record. Played like unbelievable brand of efficient football on both sides of the ball. Look at their record at Michigan State this week. Then they get Michigan at home, but then it's Ohio State, right? I don't know that a one loss Indiana is getting in. I'm not saying they won't, but I'm not convinced that a one loss Indiana is getting in and so that can they pull off a massive upset at Ohio State. So I just think the Big Ten is going to be fascinating.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I love the Indiana storyline. It's just great with Signetti going in there and what he's done and you know, we'll see what happens. But does it. Does it matter to you that they've handled everyone? That a Nebraska team that gave, you know, hung.
Todd McShay
Yeah, it matters.
Joel Klatt
Ohio State.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Ohio State. They won by 49. I mean, they are. They are. I don't even know what their closest game is. It might be 14 points. The. Their closest game so far has been 14 points. And again, I agree with you. We don't know enough yet.
Todd McShay
Right.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I think it's good that they're at 12, and that's great for Indiana to be a 12 right now, that we don't know anything about them until the Ohio State game, and I think maybe the Michigan game, too. But if I'm an Indiana fan, this has got to be the weirdest feeling ever. You're actually feeling good about Michigan coming into your place and being able to compete. Compete with that team. Yeah, that's a strange. Got to be a strange feeling for those fans. But I think the Ohio State game is everything for that Indiana team.
Todd McShay
All right. It was a good breakdown. We're not always going to do this, but I thought with, you know, coming up next week with the. With the playoff, you know, the rankings reveal the first. The first official one, it was time to kind of take a look at it. Obviously, like, so much ball left to play, but I feel like we're finally starting to see a little bit of the picture, the picture a little clearer, let's put it that way. Let's transition. The beauty of this show, Mensch, is that when we get hot on something and something's bothering one of us, something doesn't feel right, something's annoying, we can just instantly react. I don't have to call a producer. We don't have to set up a segment in the show. Like, we can just go. I want to discuss the quarterback position right now. Okay. And I know we already did it last week, but I. But I have a very different approach to this one today. Okay. You ever watch the show Newsroom?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah. Love Newsroom.
Todd McShay
Aaron Sorkin, great show. I know his weaknesses and there's some parts of shows, and I get it. And I know there's a whole, you know, chat room out there getting ready to pounce on this, but I kind.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Of like, see Newsroom coming up today, though.
Todd McShay
I know. I kind of like Aaron Sorkin. His shows, a sucker for them. Like, you know, West Wing, Newsroom, Sports Night. Okay. The whole premise of Newsroom, the whole premise was let's not worry about being the first to report the news. Let's get the news. Right. Right. I want that to be our show. Okay. Truly. Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Not even who reported it first, but not to let any kind of sponsors or no outside influence about what their stories were was kind of the deal.
Todd McShay
Yeah. For Newsroom. For us. For us. Like, it's always. It's been the mission since day one. 20, 25 years. We've been doing this together since day one. Like, I'm not here for the, you know, draft. Twitter draft. X. He's my. He's my QB1. Like, I watch people. I have watched people all season long crawling over one another like, you know, bodies like sh. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Me, me, me, me. He's my QB1. I told you I had him a month. Like, I'm not. We're not here for that. Okay. We're not here for that. Carson Beck, coming in the year, everyone's QB1. Quinn Ewers has a great game against Michigan. He's my QB1. Jalen Milro, great first half against. Against Georgia. My QB1. Garrett Nussmeyer, great first half against LSU. Oh, I've had him QB1 for a month. He's my guy. No, why are we in a rush to get to be first to announce that he's my guy? I get it. Like, we have fun. That's my guy. Like, I get it. We have fun with that. And it's. It's a game that all scouts play and it goes. Goes on in personnel rooms. But when it comes to evaluating the quarterback position, like, this is a marathon man. And I'm far more interested in studying the tape and really evaluating what I'm. What I'm seeing. And then later in the process, I'll tell you my process. I talk. I talk to scouts and GMs early in the year, preseason and early in the year to get a feel. Like, what's the. Like, what. What are you guys thinking? What have I not seen where players I should look at? And then I'd like to go quiet this time of year because there's only one thing that matters if we're trying to do this job the right way. It's what these eyes and those eyes are seeing on tape. Okay? Right. And then we get past the season, and then it's about character, the background, the work ethic, talking to other. What if. What tape did you see? Did I miss something? We'll get to all that, but we don't need to plant a flag right now. I'm much more concerned about, hey, is it the right time for Garrett nme to. To leave early for the NFL, like in college. I never had to make a resume. I'm one of the few people. I've never had a completed resume. I still to this day have never completed a resume. But what I did do. Mensch. I got an opportunity to work an internship. Unpaid sleazebag motel in Arizona. Spent two months. Two months with Gary Horton learning how to scout. Right. Right. Things went well enough. He was a former NFL scout, started a company called the War Room. Things went well enough where he said, all right, go back to Richmond. I'd injured my back. I was done playing. I was helping out as a graduate assistant, undergraduate assistant, and doing all sorts of odd jobs that sucked. But I was getting a little bit of money towards school, and I was staying involved in the game, and I was learning from coaches, getting experience.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
Getting experience watching tape. And then I was also, at night, I took the university apartments. Everyone's playing beer pong.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I remember this.
Todd McShay
I got a closet set up, and I'm. I'm watching under the stairs. Like Harry Potter under the stairs. Exactly. So. So my point in all this is when I went and took that job in Midtown Manhattan for $12,000 my first year.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Unreal.
Todd McShay
And I went up to the 27th floor, the scary office with. With the marquee group that represented Michael Jordan and all these great stars. I. I was definitely intimidated by the beautiful offices overlooking Central Park. I was intimidated by the fact that David Falk was there, who represented Michael Jordan. But when I sat down in that office with Gary Horton and Jim Nagy, who's going to join us on Thursday, he's now the executive director of the. Of the Senior bowl, and went on beyond what we did together, went on to scout with the Patriots and Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs. Right. When I went into that room the first day, I was prepared. The content, what I was doing, I was prepared for. So I look at it that way. I'm not. I don't care about the grades. I don't care about the resume. I'm not that. I'm not trying to hire an Ivy League guy with who got, you know, a 3.8 GPA. I want to know if I'm going to hire someone, is this dude ready to come in and contribute to our organization? And for a quarterback, that's all that matters. I've changed my whole. My whole, you know, over time. It's not about, oh, he's the. He's the fifth best player in the draft. I. It's not about where you get drafted. It's about is he ready? And I just want you to look like the last go no further than last year. Right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
Jaden Daniels two different stops. I forget the exact number. Was it 52, 56 games played experience coming into last year. Jaden Daniels was. Was a third round, fourth round prospect.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Talk to any coming out of Arizona State you had. There's no way you could have projected that, but there's no way to kind of speak to your point. There's no way he reaches where what the level that he gets to at LSU if he doesn't go through everything that he went through at Arizona State.
Todd McShay
And, and Caleb Williams had to play a different brand of football, didn't have an offensive line, was running around, you know, sandlot football, all that stuff. But he. He was through some wars, right? That dude went through some wars and had to carry a team. And so yeah, he comes in and struggling early on and there's going to be some ups and downs. But you can tell that dude is battle tested, right? He's been Jaden Daniels battle tested. The guy like C.J. stroud I know was only two season, played a lot of big games. Right. Pressure was on. Talk to, you know, going to talk to Joel Clatt like Ryan Day. The pressure you. When you play in Columbus, pressure's on. So let's spin this all forward to what we're looking at this year. Okay. I think everyone would agree right now. Not. I don't care about everyone. You and I agree. Whether it's Shador Sanders one, Cam Ward two or vice versa, those two guys to me are the most prepared to step into the NFL and contribute to that organization like I was talking about. Right, Right.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, I think, I think that's completely fair. I mean you look at what Sanders has gone through and first of all, coming from the smaller school, every the expectations were we'll see how this goes. Coming from Jackson State, this is a big leap and I what was it? What was incredible about him last year? And you look at all the numbers and everything, what was incredible to me was he actually got better. He was better at Colorado his first year than he was at Jackson State his last year.
Todd McShay
More consistent.
Mel Kiper Jr.
He was at Jackson State. He was already a very accurate short intermediate passer. I thought his deep ball and I thought his processing improved in his first year at Colorado and now you're seeing him even elevated to another level. So to me, you know, camp wars right there. But I do think Shador is. He's got to be the odds on favorite to be Quarterback 1. Based on what we've seen so far.
Todd McShay
So, so with that aside, and I don't. I'm not here for the discussion about who's QB3 necessarily. Fair.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
I'm here for the discussion of which young man is ready to actually make the step into the NFL and contribute and is ready. And when he steps into that office on the 27th floor in Midtown Manhattan, is he ready? Is he, is he overwhelmed by what he's about to sit down and do? Or, or is. I've been here. I did the internship in Arizona. I, I worked under a staircase while everyone's outside partying till 4 in the morning, trying to get to deadlines for the sporting news back in the day like that I can only draw on my own experiences. And so when I, I went back and I specifically spent last night watching the three quarterbacks that I think most likely, if the draft were today and they all came into the draft, would be vying for that QB3 spot, if you will. Right right behind Shador Sanders, behind Cam Ward, that's Garrett Nussmeyer from lsu in no particular order, Jalen Milroe, Alabama and Quinn Ewers from Texas. And I know people are going to scream. What about Carson Beck? I, I would put him behind those guys right now. Okay, here's the question I have and I'll get into exactly what I saw on the tape with yours. Coming back is not an option. But getting rest of the bye week is. Is an option. And getting back to playing the down the stretch, specifically the A M and if they get into the SEC championship, get into the college football player playoff, playing the best brand of football that he can play, that is only going to help him. It's going to be more wars, more big time games, more defensive coverages that he sees, more fronts, more exotics, all.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Those things that's got more opportunities.
Todd McShay
Yeah, he's got more opportunities. With Jalen and Garrett, there's a good chance that they got four games left this year. Yeah, okay. Right, right. So like when a lot of people are worried about, you know, I've got to plant my flag. Garrett Nussmeyer, he was my number one qb. QB one. He's my guy. I'm more worried. I texted Jim Nagy last night. Hey Jim, what do you know about Garrett? What's like the family dynamic? What's. What, what's their process? Because, because he, Jim's got one of the most unique opportunities and responsibilities. Right. The entire NFL draft process. He's talking to coaches, players, agents, agents, parents, he knows what's really going on. And now, like, I. I talked to a lot of people who love this Garrett Nussmeier guy, right? You love what you see on tape with the it factor. You see the tools, the anticipation, the timing, the gunslinger mentality. No fear in the pocket. Climbing up the pocket, not bailing right, bailing left. There's a lot to like about this guy is just a competitor and as a quarterback prospect. But I get done with the tape and I say, I think he might want to come back next year. I hope he's not in a situation. And I know his dad's a coach, played the quarterback position, like, so. So my initial thought is, he's probably pretty grounded. We'll make the right decision. And Jim. Jim absolutely echoed that. I'm more worried about, is the guy going to be ready? Because these are human beings. They're like, I'm pulling for all these guys. And so when I watch. Garrett, let me take you through the tape. Okay. Missed a couple throws early. Right. Right. Make some throws harder than they should be. Changing arm angles, it's. I don't know if it's slop or as much as just, like, got this. Made some throws. You know what I mean? Like, made some.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I got it.
Todd McShay
Made some easier throws a little bit more difficult than they needed to be. Next note. Changes his arm slot really, really impressively. Doesn't always do it accurately, but, like, he can do it. Okay. I. Even that. That screen that he threw the last.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Exactly what you're talking about.
Todd McShay
Getting it batted down like when yours did in the game I was talking about against Vanderbilt. He's got. Just from the side. Right. So that stood out to me. Really good touch. The red zone. Touchdown throw to your boy Taylor. Mason Taylor, Great touch on that throw. Through two touchdown passes. Only one of them was caught to Mason Taylor, but the second one was just fair. Fading back pressure on him. Just a touch. We always talked about true touch. True touch is the ability in the red zone to drop that ball in the bucket and. Ain't an easy thing. Love his pocket mobility. Climbing the pocket. As I mentioned before, eyes down the field, urgency in the pocket. You know, there's. There's tempo to his game. Okay. Rolling to the right, had Lacy in a comeback. Got that one to midfield. Drills another comeback to the right side. Nice job climbing the pocket. Controlled control at the line of scrimmage that jumped out. He's. He's got a lot of control up there. Setting protections, checking out of plays. Love to see that quarterback you know coaches, son. Great ball to number three, but in the left side of the end zone. Throw. Great ball. Number three, young receiver, mistimed the jump. Incomplete pass strike on a cover two beater down the left, the left rail to Lacey. So like all these throw. These are. And the first half of this game, I'm seeing a lot of NFL stuff from Garrett Nussmeier. I'm seeing like stuff that translates. Right, right.
Mel Kiper Jr.
So coach, so Coach Nussmeyer calls you and he says, why you're seeing all this great stuff? And I'm seeing this. We all are. Right. Why should my son go back to school for another year?
Todd McShay
Joe Burrow, right? Jaden Daniels, Caleb Williams, right? Who else? I mean, we could go. You want the op. You want the opposite effect, right? How About Mark Sanchez, 13 starts. Mitch Trubisky, 13 starts. Anthony Richardson pulling himself out of the game. Tired. Maybe get. Gets bench this week some people saw, Orlovsky was saying, I haven't studied the tape this week, that the tape was a lot better than people are giving him, but struggling, not playing to the level. 13 starts. Right, right. So, so if Mr. Nussmeyer were to call me, I'd say let's, let's just look, let's, let's have a conversation. Let's just look.
Mel Kiper Jr.
As a, from the media standpoint, this is a conversation that, you know, I want to just make this point quickly. That would make me uncomfortable in the past because we don't understand family dynamics, financial situations with the NIL or nli, whatever it's called now. I don't even know.
Todd McShay
There's some, there's some, there's some money in Baton Rouge. Like there's some.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Not as big of a. It's not as big. Get some insurance. We talked, we talked about this the other day. It's not the same kind of risk that it was years ago. So there's that element to this decision making process as well.
Todd McShay
And I just, just to educate people. Right. Like, it's not exactly this number. And again, I'm not about which draft pick they're going to be because I don't care if the first overall comes with a whole lot of pressure. And we've seen a lot of failures there. Number two overall, we've seen Robert Griffin, the third. Like there's every slot or every range in the draft, there's, there's been failures and just about every slot in every range in the draft, there's been successes. Okay. It's not about where you get drafted, but if we're but if Mr. Nussmeier and the family is just. And I truly believe it's not just about the money, it's about making the right decision to get him in a position where he does get to the NFL.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Exactly.
Todd McShay
He's prepared. He's as prepared as possible. Right. And so with that as the backdrop, if you're just looking financially, okay, every slot down is about $1 million. I haven't studied the cap, you know, the rookie, the rookie pool and cap this year, let's call it 35 million guaranteed for your, for your first contract. Okay. That's about what the first overall pick, maybe up to 38 million, whatever it is. But if you're the first overall pick, if we call it 35 million, you go down. Second pick is 34. Third picks, 33. Tenth pick is what about 25, 26 million. Big difference in money. But. And that's guaranteed money over five years.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Right.
Todd McShay
So you start to look at. All right, well, what's, what's nuts going to make as the LSU starting quarterback coming back? I don't know. But, but it sounds like the going rate is somewhere in like the 3 to 5 million dollar range for nil or NLI, whatever the hell they're calling it these days. But, but you know what I mean. So like yeah, insurance policy and get me, get me four, four million dollars for. To come back next year.
Mel Kiper Jr.
You know, you go potentially and listen, nothing you don't know, but you potentially go from being maybe the 16th pick this year, the 12th pick this year.
Todd McShay
Come back and be a guy. Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
First, first pick you're talking about.
Todd McShay
So, so middle of the first round, if that's 16 million to go in, fifth overall pick at 30 million over five making money.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's the right financial decision.
Todd McShay
Right. And that, and again, that's not what this is about. This isn't about the draft slot. This isn't about the money. But if, if money is a major factor in it, you can make an argument you're, you're better off financially to go back to school. Right.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Don't use this. This. We're not. This is not the main point. But don't use this as an excuse or a reason not to put yourself in the best position. Succeed that you don't. It shouldn't be a thing where players are feeling the pressure that I have to make this happen now.
Todd McShay
Exactly. And, and so, and that's. We only got to the first half. Those are all the good things. The second half. And we detailed it after sat on Saturday night show after the game, he was feeling himself as our producer, Connor, no question. Because that dude was like. You could tell as the game went on, the throws gone a little bit more like, you know, just a. You can tell with the quarterback, like, pep in the step. Like, yeah, I got this in the beginning. It was kind of like, all right, let's not. Let's not mess this up. Let's keep the thing rolling. And then all of a sudden it's like, let's take a. Like, I trust it. Let it rip. Feeling himself rolling out to the left, pressure on him in the face. Throws it up against the grain. It's exactly what you're told from I said the other night, nine years old on. Don't make that throw. He made that throw. All of a sudden, Elko inserts Marcel Reed and the whole thing turns around. But later in the game, there are two. Two instances, mixed coverages. One, the second interception, if I remember correctly. Second interception. It's a yes man coverage. Look. Slot slot corner on slot receiver. Man coverage. Look, slot corner comes off. They disguised it beautifully. Comes off of the slot slot receiver and has flat responsibility and did it after taking about three steps back, bailing back. And so Nuss Myers, pre snap read man, post snap read for, you know, drop man, because he's turning and run with the guy and then like that, right? Changes on him. And. And that. That slot corner is now covering the. Covering the. The flat. And it's an interception. Great design. But you know what happens when you get to game 26 as a starter, right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
You've seen it before.
Todd McShay
You've seen that before, and you've seen it probably three or four times, right? So when you walk into that office on the 27th floor in Midtown Manhattan and you're intimidated by everyone there, and you're overlooking Central park, you've seen it before. So you're like, you all right, Put your head down. Let's go to work. That's what I'm saying. With Nussmeier, okay. I think the future is brighter with more game experience going to the NFL. So we can plant a flag today if we want and say he's QB3. We could argue he's QB1 because I just love him the most. But let's have an educated conversation about what's best for him and organizationally, organizationally in the NFL, what's best for the organization. Right. I'm in another year, obviously. No guarantees, but let's get him coming out in the 2026 NFL Draft with 2730 starts. You know what I mean?
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's. It's a sound point. And, and look, we've seen this. To flip the script a little bit. It's. Can owners stop putting pressure on their organizations to draft quarterbacks that aren't ready to. It kind of changed the whole dynamic of how this is done, because these we have, like, you just look what happened with Bryce Young and Carolina. I feel like we've talked about this a couple times now at this point, but don't draft a quarterback when you're not ready to put him in a position to succeed. So there's, there's that side of this as well. So.
Todd McShay
And I know, I know we're going to talk to Joel Klatt, and I'm, you know, I'm fascinated by the. There's only one man out there, it appears, that's. That's willing to, In a long time, Coach prime, that's willing to make sure that his son goes to the right place because of that. And we'll have that conversation with him. I'm excited to talk to Joel Clad. I mean, the absolute pinnacle of what. What, what he does. Great insight, I'm sure. Coming up on. On Ohio State, Penn State, and I want to dive in a little bit. I got my first, like, ever from. From Coach Prime.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Instagram, big time.
Todd McShay
You want to talk about intentional? I. I'm certain Coach prime isn't sitting around watching, watching us on social media. So someone brought that to his attention and, like, yep, let's give that a. Like, let's let everyone know, like, this. This is happening. I am.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Send up that flare.
Todd McShay
Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. So what. So, viewers, we've talked about extensively what we think he needs. He's got the game reps. He's, He's. He's played great in all, just about every single big spot. Right. He's not himself right now. I don't see a physical injury. I see that he's. He's not letting it rip completely. And I see a coach in Coach Sark who I have the utmost. Like, Sark's my guy. I've known him better. Not around him, but, like, covered him. Pete Carroll was. I was fortunate enough at a young age to get access I didn't even deserve, you know, just Mike Godfrey, like, years ago and moving around with that team and getting to talk to a lot of people in that program. And I followed Sarkin. I've talked to Sark, I've sat in meetings with him. We've talked on the sidelines. I respect what he does with quarterbacks as much as anyone in the college game. When I watch that tape, I don't need to call Sark. I said it before. I don't need to call Sark. I don't need to find. I see what he's doing. Let's get out of this game. Let's protect our quarterback. Let's try to build up his confidence a little bit more after what was that shaky performance against Georgia. And let's get to the bye week. Let's get him right and then let's build and let's finish this thing strong. That's what that game was about. So he's in a different vein. Yours is different than Milroy and Nussmeyer, right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Because he doesn't have the opportunity.
Todd McShay
Ewers come is coming out. He's had all the wars. It's about getting him right so that he can play his best ball down the stretch. And so we'll see where that plays. But I will say this. Milro has more intriguing upside than any of these guys. Right? Jaylen Milroe has more intriguing upside than Quinn Ewers. He has more intriguing upside than Garrett Nussmeyer. You could argue he's got more intriguing upside than Shador Sanders and Cam Ward. You could argue. I'm not here to plant flags. I told you. But with Jalen, the ups and downs are hard to watch. We know he's a phenomenal athlete. We know when he takes off and running and he runs with a purpose and he's committed to running, he's as good as there is in terms of the quarterback class coming up. You know he's going to be a difference maker running the football in the NFL. We've seen it with guys like Josh Allen, Jalen Hertz, Lamar Jackson. The best example of all, like, you can enter the league as a phenomenal athlete who can extend plays and run and you can improve your accuracy. You can improve as a passer. That wasn't always the case because we were dealing with quarterbacks that didn't have that mobility who couldn't solve the question marks at the line of scrimmage with their ability to extend and take off and run the football. It's a different position now than it used to be. And so Jalen could get in the NFL and could overcome what he's dealing with in terms of not being comfortable in the pocket footwork, not being consistent. Games like the Georgia game, even the the Vanderbilt game, is like he was accurate throwing the football in the mo for the Most part. But there are games where he's not, you know, and even this last week, missed throws, played good. The offensive, like 500 yards. They shut out a ranked opponent. This isn't about Alabama. This is about Jalen Milro and his development. Where is he? Right. I think he would have a better chance to overcome the lack of experience than Garrett Nussmeier would. But Jalen Milroe is so far from being polished is for lack of a better word.
Mel Kiper Jr.
He.
Todd McShay
He just. He needs more work. He needs more work than, than. Than NME does in terms of being comfortable in the pocket, having his footwork right, Marrying his feet to his eyes. So. So with Milro, he. I've said it from the beginning and it won't change. He's the wild card in this group. There's no question about it. And we saw where Lamar Jackson was drafted. 32 Overall, Baltimore Ravens trade up. Go get him. Right? I think it was. That was Aussie's last draft trade up, right? Want to leave his mark. Hell of a mark for. Hell of a guy. I mean, Aussie's one of. One of our favorites. But, but.
Mel Kiper Jr.
So what's your instinct there? Are you saying that even though he could overcome these things, and I agree with that, what you're saying, I think.
Todd McShay
I dead on love, not just as a college football fan. I would love Jalen Milroy to come back for another year. Okay.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Just want to be clear about that. I agree with you.
Todd McShay
Everyone in Tuscaloosa loves this guy. Hardworking, good dude, cares about his teammates, has matured as a passer, has matured as a leader. I want to see another year of it. Now you're in year two with Caitlin DeBoer. Right? Now you're in year two of the system. Michael Penix is really helpful. You know what I mean?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Like, he's got a track record.
Todd McShay
Yeah, yeah.
Joel Klatt
Let's.
Todd McShay
Let's now, let's get a full off season where it's not the new coach coming in and Nick Saban leaving it where the focus can be on ball. All the focus can be on ball. Now I've got. I've got whether 13 wars or 14 or 15, 16 wards, whatever. It turns out to be behind me with this system. Now let's. Let's advance it now. Let's spend an offseason working on my footwork. Let's get more comfortable. I'm still going to be Jalen. I'm still going to be an absolute threat in a phenom running the football. But now I'm Going to add another element. That's what I want to see for Jalen. Forget about the draft, forget about the team's drafting, forget about, you know, the draft coverage, all that stuff for Jalen Milroe. I want to see another year of him developing so when he gets there, he's ready to contribute. He's exactly.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Couldn't agree more. And listen, Lamar Jackson deserves all the credit in the world for where he. With the player that he's developed into. It's. It's a credit to his work ethic. It's. It's an incredible story. But we also have to give credit to that staff and that organization for helping him really unlock that potential. So if you told me that Jalen Milro was going to end up in the same kind of spot as Lamar Jackson did when Baltimore got him at the end of the first round, I mean, that's, you know, it's a different conversation if you get into those specifics, but there's no guarantee of that.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Why take that risk? I. I think that. I think you're. You're right. You're better served going back and becoming the best football player that you can be going into the pros.
Todd McShay
These are the conversations I want to have on this show, and if they're too rational for you, then maybe this isn't the show for you. But if, but, but if you want more of, like, this kind of stuff, like these, you know, watch tape, study it, understand what we're looking at. Let's talk about it. Let's talk through. Like, these are the conversations you and I have on the phone. These are the conversations I have with NFL general managers. You know, like, this is the real stuff, and I'm just excited to be doing it with your brother. I, I hope you enjoy this show. If you're, if you're watching or listening, I don't know how, like, I know everyone I listen to on a podcast. Like, like, subscribe, download all that stuff.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Please do.
Todd McShay
We're just starting out. We're like the little engine that could. We're gonna put, you know, chug away at this thing, but please pass the word on if you can. But I'm, But I'm most excited, to be honest with you, with the guests we've got upcoming. Joel Klatt, like, the fact that he'd take time to sit down with us and take precious time out of this week, getting ready for Penn State. Ohio State means the world to us. So. So next up on the show, Joel Klatt, Fox Sports lead analyst. Also the Joel Klatt Show. You can get it where you get podcasts and we're gonna have a great conversation with them.
Joel Klatt
This episode is brought to you by.
Mel Kiper Jr.
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Todd McShay
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Joel Klatt
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Todd McShay
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Mel Kiper Jr.
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Todd McShay
Vitamin Water is a registered trademark of Glasso. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for Career Day and said he was a big roas man. Then he told everyone how much he.
Joel Klatt
Loved calculating his return on ad spend.
Todd McShay
My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn you'll be able to reach people who do. Get a hundred dollar credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.comcampaign to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com campaign. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn the place to be to be the McShay show is brought to you by FanDuel. Keep your college football season going with a win on FanDuel, because right now new customers can kick off the season with 150 bucks in bonus bets. Just place any $5 bet and you'll get 150 bucks in bonus bets if you win. Use your bets on spreads, live bets, overs, unders and so much more. Just visit FanDuel.com McShay to download America's number one sports book. Must be 21 or older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in D.C. first online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com Gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit rg-help.com well, we always appreciate this guy's time, but especially this week. Biggest game of the year so far. Ohio State. Penn State. We've got it on Fox right after noon kickoff. We've got the big noon. We've got the the the man himself, Joel Klatt, the lead analyst for college football for Fox. And first of all, let's start here. Joel, I've done a bunch of big games. Like I know the feeling, but when what's the difference in terms of this week compared to some of the other weeks and how exciting is it for you, just personally knowing that, like, all eyes of the college football world are going to be on you? It's the big game going to Penn State, like, the history, the rivalry, all those sorts of things leading up to this one.
Joel Klatt
Well, let's just say I'm not as worried about blowout material this week, you know, as. As maybe some other weeks. And I know. I know you know the feeling, but this one is. This one is obviously special, and I've been looking forward to this game ever since the off season. And, and I also, because I think what people maybe don't realize that are just fans of this sport is that when we have these contracts, you know, ESPN has their contract, CBS has their contract. NBC has their contract. Fox, we have our contract. Well, I end up seeing these specific teams a lot, and I end up seeing these specific coaches a lot, and I see them in the off season. And so what. What ends up happening is like, I know every single storyline and even the personal ones. You know, I know what James is feeling this weekend because of what has happened the three previous years in terms of losing to Michigan and Ohio State. And that feeling and that narrative surrounding him and his program that he can't win this specific game. I know what Ryan is up against at Ohio State and the narrative that, that his fan base kind of builds up. And, and so it's not just the game, which in and of itself is incredible, but it's all the underlying subtext of what's going on in these games, their fan bases. That's what ends up, like, becoming so interesting for me and, and elevates the game really to. To a status that is. Is hard to explain. Both of these programs and these coaches specifically, desperately need to win Saturday, and those are the best games to do. You've done them, I've done them. You know, when you know that each team will. Will literally do anything, do whatever it takes to win, that's when you know you're about to see something special.
Todd McShay
Well, let's. Let's start with Ryan Day in Ohio State. You know, Herb street always calls it the lunatic fringe. As an alumni, he can, you know, he can get away with that.
Joel Klatt
Yeah, that's right. I'm not gonna. Yeah, exactly.
Todd McShay
There's certain things you can say based on your background. Right?
Joel Klatt
That's right.
Todd McShay
You know, he says it's like 10, 15, whatever it is, but the other 85, they're just great college football fans. They love their program, but that lunatic fringe is always the loudest Whether it's politics, sports, doesn't matter. And you look at the record 62 and 9, Joel, for Ryan Day at Ohio State. But the Michigan game, you know, that that's obviously why we're hearing some of the noise that we're hearing. I know Ryan Day pretty well. You know, go back to Chip Kelly with mention. I actually played at Richmond, played against Chip all the way back in the days at unh, and Ryan Day was there. So I know those. I know these human beings.
Joel Klatt
Yeah.
Todd McShay
What do you expect from Ryan Day when you fly in, you meet with him this week? What do you expect kind of the mindset to be?
Joel Klatt
Well, I will tell you, I first met him when he was just a coordinator, and Urban Meyer had hired him from San Francisco. And from that point to this point, this job, that fan base ages you a little bit, and it grows you up in the sport of football. And I think he would even be the first to say that you really have no idea until you're in it, because it's somewhat of a cauldron or a reckoning, if you will. You know, I remember, and I'm sure you've heard this, too, Todd, like a lot of the people that played for Saban or coached under Saban would say, every day is a reckoning. Well, for. For. For Ohio State. And Urban would even say this as well. Coach Meyer, he would say, like, at Ohio State, every day is fourth and one. Or, you know, another way of putting that is every day is a reckoning. And you can feel that, you know, on Ryan's shoulders.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Joel Klatt
Here's the one thing that I think, and you mentioned the record 62 and 9, which is staggering. I mean, it's like, what are we doing? Right. Like, this is. This is incredible. It's. It's an elite program, and it's not always the case that somebody can take over a program that is at the top of college football, and then they can keep it there and maintain it and in some ways move it even forward, which is what Ryan has been able to do now. He's been a snap or two away from winning a national championship, being beating some of those teams in those big games. And that certainly weighs on him. One of the things that I've talked with him about is this. This idea that the more, you know, the more you realize you need to learn, you know, and as. And I think that this. This is true in life as well. I've certainly gone through it personally, but it's like the smarter you become, the more you realize you don't know.
Todd McShay
Yeah. You don't have all the answers, right?
Joel Klatt
That's exactly right. And the less you know, the more you think you have everything figured out. I think that the exact same thing can be said for coaches. And when he was a young coach, even a young head coach, I think that there was an idea of, like, no, I know what this is, and I know how to do this, and we're going to run through it. And the reality is, you look around college football and its history, and the reality is, the greatest coaches in our sports history took a while to win at the top end. You know, I mean, even Nick Saban, he had to go through the Michigan State years and then get to LSU. And it wasn't until he was into his 50s that he began that run at Alabama. Same with Pete Carroll. The same thing. Tom Osborne took, What was it, 20 years to win a national championship. It took Urban Meyer, you know, growing through Bowling Green in Utah and then getting to Florida. Yeah. You know, and this idea that you just become a head coach and then you win a national championship is not historically accurate. You know, Bob Stoops ruined it for everybody. You know, Ruined it for everybody. So we've talked about that, and he is now at. At that point where he will. And this is where, you know, that he's comfortable with it. He will say to me, like, I learn every year, and those learning experiences are going to pay off. I. He's going to win at the top end at some point, and. And what he's got to continue to do is keep putting his team at the doorstep. Because you do this enough, and eventually you're going to break down that door. And I'm, you know, I know that that's a big overarching answer, but.
Todd McShay
No, it's great.
Joel Klatt
I really believe that.
Todd McShay
Yeah. You can tell by men's beard he's a former offensive lineman. I know he's clamoring to ask Ohio.
Joel Klatt
We'Re going to get into the O line. I know we are.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I can't wait. So anyone who watched that game knows that the Ohio State left tackle making his first start for the injured Josh Simmons was in over his head. Just did not play well, both in the run game and in pass protection. But I, you know, I. I go back and watch that tape, and I thought there were other issues up front. I thought that the right guard didn't have the right guard was a little bit of an issue for them. There were some execution issues. And I was wondering if you were just seeing Some of the same things. And what you thought, what's. What's the fix here? What are they going to do to fix this?
Joel Klatt
Yeah. So, yes to, to answer, you know, the first part of your question, there were major issues, and not just Zen Mahalski, the, The kid who came in at left tackle, although he did struggle. And I think those were the most, I think, glaring and obvious. But there were some other things going on with the offensive line, namely in this idea of. It's hard for me not having played the position to understand really, like, what does it mean technically when an O line, not a specific offensive lineman, but an O line is playing well together. There's a cohesiveness to the movement of those five guys that when, when, when they're playing well, it. It is. It's like beautiful. You know, it's almost like, like dance steps. Like everybody's foot steps at the same time and their hands move at the same time and you're like, man, this is incredible.
Mel Kiper Jr.
You know, he does.
Joel Klatt
And it's easier for me to be honest. And Todd, I think, you know, maybe you can relate to this. It's easier for me in the draft process to just look at a player up front and be like, okay, what does he do versus tell me why this offensive line is so good? It's because it's very hard to explain. And there's that cohesiveness. Like, for instance, I did Indiana the previous week. Indiana, I would say up front. Probably not as individually talented as what Ohio State is up front. And yet their offensive line played better as a group, and they're more cohesive as a group. They're more connected to the structure of the offense and what the offense is trying to do and the rhythm of what the offense is trying to do. Because it's not just that everybody is moving with a cohesiveness, but it's also that they're moving in conjunction with backs and protections and wide receivers and pictures and timing and that everything just kind of looks correct. I don't see that with Ohio State. And now you're going to change things up. I'm expecting. I don't know this to be a fact, and I haven't talked to them yet. Obviously, I'm expecting Donovan Jackson to bump out the left tackle. He's an all American guard that now all of a sudden. And by the way, he. He is not one of these linemen and guys, you know that this happens all over. It's like, oh, he's played all over the offensive line. He's played at center and guard. And you know, he's bounced around through his few years. I can't think of there. There was a guy last year. Gosh, who was it in the draft? Anyways, this happens where your best offensive lineman ends up playing all the different positions. That hasn't been Donovan. Donovan has been a guard. Right. His entire career. And so bumping out for different world out there. It's a totally different world, by the way. And it's a different world just period at Happy Valley. Holy cow. Right?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Todd McShay
With Abdul Carter coming.
Joel Klatt
And with Abdul Carter coming, I always go back to calling the Michigan Penn State game a year ago. And you know, everybody has an opinion on Michigan's 32 straight runs in that game. We. All right. And it was like, oh, they went bully ball. And you know, Michigan. Oh, look at that. They can run. Do you. They ran the ball 32 straight times because they couldn't block Chop Robinson.
Todd McShay
Right.
Joel Klatt
It was impossible. He ran around the right tackle twice on the first two series and like JJ barely got the ball away and he was on rhythm. And so it was a panic move. I mean, I don't know how else to explain it, but it was like, okay, screw it. Extra offensive lineman, extra tight ends. Let's create wits. It's the safest route. That's exactly route. Right. So now let's back up. Okay. So you asked about the Ohio State offensive line. So now you're going to bump a true guard out to tackle and who knows who's going to play guard. Exactly.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Now you're weaker in the middle.
Joel Klatt
That's a problem.
Todd McShay
Right.
Joel Klatt
Guys like so. So now this offensive line and this offense I think is going to have to have a completely different fingerprint that what than what Chip really wants. And I could see that last week against Indiana. Long long answer that. I'll try to boil down to this. I felt Chip calling the game last week for the rest of the season, he was forcing the run so heavily because he was thinking to himself, like, I've got to one, figure out what I've got up front and two, get them going. And so they were just running it and running it in. Nebraska is playing into their hands because for them after the previous week against Indiana, they were like hell or high water. We're going to allow them to run for 200 yards. So they're just like, bang, they're in there. Hut makers in there. Ty Robinson's in there. They're in the middle. They're not wide in their odd front, you know, care creating bubbles they're in tight, they're playing quality defense, they're getting after it. And Chip is like banging his head against a wall trying to run the football because he knows that he'd like to run the football for the rest of the season. And there's this little bit of anxiety about like, well, if we can't run it today, like, will we be able to run it in the future? I want to try to get some, some success. Then you look up at the end of the game, guys, and it's a four point game and Dylan Rayola is on the field with a chance to win the game. And Jeremiah Smith has had four targets. And you're like that, that can't happen. And, and it was because of the offensive line.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, the tar. I'm glad you brought up the targets. It was amazing to me that he wasn't targeted more in that game. And then you have, you have, you have one of the most talented backfields in the country. And if you can't get those guys going, I mean, it's a different team if they can't figure that O line out.
Joel Klatt
Yeah. And, and I know it's not the scheme. You know, Todd, you and I and, and Steve was your online background. We know that Chip, there is not a better run game offensive coach, I think in the sport than Chip Kelly. He's done it with all levels of offensive line and levels of back and he's been successful. You know, those two backs are incredible players with what they've got in their past. So that you start ticking away these variables of like, well, what's the problem here? Well, I know it's not the scheme. I know it's not the backs. And it's like, well, it's the, it's the five guys up front and they've got to figure that out.
Todd McShay
Well, obviously when you have a talent like Jeremiah Smith, their Chip will find ways. Right.
Joel Klatt
I guess before you finish, I'm going to like throw a question back because you know that it can be easy sometimes in our industry and, and with what we do to, to overstate sometimes, you know, with, with players because they could be like the best on their team or this year or things and you're wanting to try to categorize like I've tried to pump the brakes on this guy, but it's like, don't bother.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
Don't not. I have no, I have not seen this. This is he for me in my career is, is one of one for this age and that position. I've never Seen anything like it. And I've seen all of these guys come through Ohio State. Brian Hartline has seen all of these guys come through Ohio State.
Todd McShay
We just, we just had the greatest of all time, right? Like Marvin Harrison Jr. How do you. How do you find. But this guy's got a chance to maybe be even better.
Joel Klatt
I agree. I think that if he, if he were to just, like, continue to stay healthy and to continue to stay hungry, he will be, without question, a top two three wide receiver in the NFL sometime fairly soon. And if he stays healthy and hungry, like, he'll be in an all time great. Yeah, there's. There's no doubt.
Todd McShay
And what's crazy, he is.
Joel Klatt
He is ridiculous. I'm watching the film, dude. The guy is 6, 3, 2, 26, 3, 2, 20. And he's just blowing by guys at the second level with his second level release.
Todd McShay
Just.
Joel Klatt
And there. And I'm so. I asked him, I was like, hey, on the catapult, like, what is he touching? And they're like, oh, he touches 23.
Todd McShay
And. Oh, my gosh. Wow.
Mel Kiper Jr.
At that size.
Todd McShay
Yeah, Like, I look at him, you kind of like a young Julio Jones, but Julio Jones ran like a four or five something, you know.
Joel Klatt
Yeah, exactly. Exactly.
Todd McShay
Yeah, the. It's. It's fun to watch. And, and you look across the landscape, right? Like, Texas has got a great one. Alabama's got a great one with Ryan Williams. And they're like, they're all phenomenal. And they're. And I just. My brain, unfortunately, the way it's wired, I'm like, 20, 27. All right, 2027 draft, you know, like, we could. We could have like two or three receivers in the top five like these.
Joel Klatt
I agree. Well, and Smith, to me, it's like, if someone needs a quarterback, fine, they'll take a quarterback that year, but. Yeah, but he'll. He's the. He's already the best position. He might be the best position player this year.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
You know, like, if he could go to the draft, he. He could be like the second, third pick in the draft this year.
Todd McShay
I agree. I actually agree. And I'm very careful about those things.
Joel Klatt
I know they always come back to.
Todd McShay
Bite me, but I know I don't disagree. So. So how about the guy getting him the ball? I just, I love the stories. I guess it's just being on the road doing games for so long. You try to find the stories and things that are interesting. And Will Howard, you know, talking this week about, you know, he, like, down Downington West High school, born in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Wanted, you know, dream was to play at Penn State, which kind of got shunned by, by Penn State and recruiting. And now you got this shot. How excited are you to, to tell that story and what else can you shed a light on?
Joel Klatt
I love this, I love this storyline because this in a lot of ways, well, I just relate to it. You know, bottom line, I was a guy that wasn't recruited at the top end in football. In fact, I was just like a Division 2 recruit. You know, when I, when I came out of high school, I was a three sport player and I was very good baseball player and you know, was a Division 2 recruits, South Dakota State. I went up to Brookings, I went to North Dakota State, Northern Colorado and know that was, that was it. And I, and I wanted to play for Sonny Lubick at CSU so bad. Right? Like that was just, I was like, man, if. Because Colorado to me was like, wow, man, they're, they're like, you know, they're, they're too, they're too good for me. I go and I play baseball for three seasons and then I decided like, I need a degree, I need to change my life. And, and I was going to quit baseball. And so I decided to go to school, school at Colorado. I didn't quit baseball to go play football at Colorado.
Todd McShay
I didn't know this.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, I didn't know this either.
Joel Klatt
And, and then once that happened, the coaching staff was like, well, you got to walk on, you know, if you're going to be here and you have eligibility. And so I walked on at Colorado not thinking really anything of it. And then all of a sudden it's like, oh man, I could, I could play. I could, you know, and so all of a sudden that it starts to unfold that way and then I get to play and start against Colorado State. And dude, I used to be so jacked up for that game because I was like, these guys passed, like they didn't. And what they had done is there was a really good player that was a year younger than me in high school in our state. And then there were a couple of really good players that were in my grade and one of them went to Arizona State, I can't remember his name anyways. And then the other was Craig Oaks and Craig Oakes went to Colorado. And then the guy younger than me, CSU decided like, well, we want him. His name was Justin Holland. So they didn't offer me. And they never forget those names, right? Yes, exactly. So. And I Got to play Justin Holland, you know, in college. Like, I didn't forget, I didn't forget that. And I remember, like, I wanted to run across the field and, and say to Sonny Lubick, like, how do you like me now? Like, I was jacked up outside of what I would normally be for those games. So I, I give that personal anecdote to tell you. Like, I can't wait to see what Will does and, and to see how he reacts and, and plays. Because for him, he will always, not just because it's a big game, but he will always remember this opportunity to, to go and play against Penn State and the program that he, he desperately wanted to play for.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Do you remember your stat line in that Colorado State game? Do you remember what you threw for?
Joel Klatt
That was my very first start ever.
Todd McShay
I want to know.
Joel Klatt
Through they were ranked. Bradley Van Pelt was their quarterback.
Todd McShay
Oh, yeah.
Joel Klatt
And, and he was an older guy. They were favored. You know, everyone was like, Colorado's gonna start a walk on. Like, what are we doing? And we beat him. 42, 35. I threw for 417 yards.
Todd McShay
Yes, yes.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Tight game, too.
Todd McShay
I love it.
Joel Klatt
That's right.
Todd McShay
I love it, man.
Joel Klatt
You like me now, Sonny?
Todd McShay
Exactly, exactly. Oh, man, I love those stories. All right, so. So we're always looking here on this show at NFL talent and all that. Defensively, it's hard for me because Ohio State is loaded with veterans on defense.
Joel Klatt
Yeah.
Todd McShay
Everyone talks about how, you know, extremely talented this defense is, and it is. Right. But I look at, like, you go back over the history, like every year at Alabama when they were winning championships, it was like, all right, we just lost four, four first rounders on the defensive side of the draft, but they got three more coming back next year. Georgia has been the same way. It's like, oh, five guys in the top 57. Nine guys in the top 100. Right. This group, maybe there's one first rounder, you know, but, but a bunch of day two, you know, second, third, maybe fourth round picks loaded with talent, bunch of veterans. When everyone talks about elite, I don't know that they're elite by that standard, you know, that we've seen. But they're, they got a chance to be really good. What. I guess, what have you seen and who's jumped up for you on Ohio State's defense?
Joel Klatt
So the guys that you would come into this season saying they've got a chance to play themselves into the first round, haven't played that way yet, you know, and I. So that's that's the, I guess the, the part of the problem. These guys are very good pass rushers. Came in as, you know, two of the top five players in the country and it's just never quite gotten there, you know, in terms of dominance at the college level. They're very good, very create a lot of pressure. But the production numbers as far as getting to the quarterback aren't, aren't what the pressure numbers would indicate. You know, they're top five in the country and pressures and yet they're like 33rd in sacks. So that's that, you know, to me that's, that's an issue. You got to get home. The defensive tackles which they thought were going to be elite, Ty Leek, Williams being, being one of them, hasn't played like a first round player. You know, the corners who they thought could be first round corners haven't played like first round corners. So what you've got now is, is because, because of that I feel them starting to press schematically. See when your players are out there and they're playing at a really, really, really high level, you don't have to do much defensively. And that's, I think now Saban's always a bit of an anomaly because he was, he was going to be intricate in particular in the secondary anyways. Todd, you know, we watched these guys and they were in brackets and they're doing all sorts of different stuff in the, in the back end. But when I look at other defenses that I thought were, were ridiculously talented, they didn't have to do much. The 19 Ohio State defense schematically did not do much because those guys, and I'm talking about like the Chase Young Jeff Okuda defense, they didn't have to do much schematically and, and they were fine with that. I even go back to a team that I played against in 2005, that Texas team that won the national championship and they had two Thorpe Award winners in the back end and, and they had all these guys, they ran like two defenses, they ran like stack four, three. And then they would walk up Mike and, or excuse me, Sam and Will and run cover zero, double crash. And it was like that was it, you know, but it's like, well, fine, we're just better than you. Matt, Michigan's defense last year, it wasn't intricate necessarily. They would sit there and they did a great job schematically against Washington with what they did in, in their coverage. But, but to me, Jesse Minter, he understood that it was more about depth, playing a Lot of snaps and staying fresh up front. It was about maintaining levels of defense. Just make sure you're not giving up an easy touchdown. And then in the moments that you need it for the team, then you get aggressive. So we used to talk a lot about like he, he always said, this is Jesse Minter for Michigan's defensive coordinator a year ago. And he and I used to talk about this idea that in the third quarter he always felt like the way that they played, there was going to be one series where he could end the game in the third quarter and he thought it was always going to come. Like if we score on offense in the third quarter at any point either to take the lead or with the lead already and we score the next series, he was like a three and out, breaks their back, it's over. Because of our style, the time of possession. And you know, he understood that. So he, he used to take what I used to say about the boa constrictor and he would say that was our, our moment to squeeze.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
And then they would get aggressive and they would squeeze and then all of a sudden you get a three and out you get a punt. Now another long drive. Now you're into the fourth quarter and it's a two possession game and it's over. Right, right, right. And okay, so how does that relate to this Ohio State defense? Well, because their players, I don't feel like have played to the level that they thought that they would individually. As far as the production, they're having to manipulate the structure. When you manipulate the structure, you have the, you are more susceptible to the big play. And that's exactly what happened against Oregon. And then that's, I think they're going to be more susceptible to the big play moving forward because their answer after Oregon was more aggression. They did more things. You know, rather than a straight four man pass rush, they started to do stunts, twits, twists and blitz. And that's what they did on third down, which was a little bit different, you know, and that's going to promote more one, one on one coverage. And so we're going to see Denzel Burke and Davis and Nick Bonosa in their two corners. They're going to be on an island and we're going to see if they can hold up because they didn't against Oregon.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yes. Statistically they have 20 sacks and JT leads the team with four and a half. I mean they're, they're getting that pressure from all.
Joel Klatt
It just.
Mel Kiper Jr.
You look at the stats and you can see they've got DBs, safeties, linebackers. Those are the kind of guys they're rushing right now. So the, the numbers back it up.
Todd McShay
So, so let's look at it the opposite side now, right?
Joel Klatt
Yeah.
Todd McShay
Penn State. Where are we a quarterback? Obviously, you know, Drew Aller comes out, the injury, I know it's, it's always gonna be tight lipped and what's going to, gonna happen there? Bo Per Bulla, I think I'm pronouncing it right. You'll know better than me at this point. I like, I, I kind of liked him, man.
Joel Klatt
I do too. I would, I do too.
Todd McShay
Basically.
Joel Klatt
Basically. Think about what I just talked about. Man defense, single coverage. Well, guess what? Man defense hates a running quarterback. You know, that's when you give up explosive runs to the quarterback. And so in, in some ways I think Per Bulla might even be like a better matchup against Ohio State. I know that that's. Maybe people don't want to hear that that's not a knock against Drew Aller because I think he's incredibly talented. I really do. But, but when you've got, you know, traditional pass rushing defensive ends and you've got a defense that wants to play man coverage and be aggressive, man, a guy that can elude and create with his legs becomes so dangerous. So Prabula, I don't think it's the worst problem to have this, this week. Would you like Aller back? Probably. Because I think playing with both of those guys would actually be, you know, even more beneficial. But if you have to go with Bo Prabula, I don't think that's the worst thing in the world.
Todd McShay
Interesting. Ty Warren. I mean, he's, he's.
Joel Klatt
I love this guy.
Todd McShay
I love him too. All right, so back back at Richmond, you know, the center of the football universe. I know Spiders. Yeah, the Spiders. Frank Leonard was our coach, a tight end coach, and every year he's got a new title. He's at Penn State now and he just, he raves about, just loves the human being, the, the work ethic. And then you see the tape and he's phenomenal. We know what he is and we know what he can provide. We know how they're going to try to utilize him. Who else are you looking for though, who's got to have a big game for Penn State weapons?
Joel Klatt
Yeah, this is, this is a great question. And this is what, what James and I talk about a lot is that he thinks that what has really held them back is that they have not had that wide receiver step up and be able to just win in a big moment and stay on the field on the third down. He had to play that in Marvin Harrison two years ago. You watched that tape of Ohio State with Stroud and Harrison two years ago in Happy Valley, and it's like that Penn State team had a great chance. And then Marvin and Stroud just kind of took over the game and in particular on third down and Joey Porter couldn't cover him. And, you know, it's just like that's. They had an elite player elevate the rest of the team to a point of a win, and Penn State hasn't had that ability. So it's tougher on them to move the ball. They have to be with the chains. They don't have a guy that they can feel like is just going to win on the outside and get that elite wide receiver play. And then you. To me, I watched the USC film and I'm like, what allowed them to come back and win on some of those fourth downs? They got some wide receiver play and they got some. Some completions and big moments. Whether it was Trey Wallace or. Or Julian Fleming, these guys won in big moments. That's what they need. I'm pretty confident in everything else I'm going to get from Penn State. I know their defense is going to be aggressive and athletic and long and they're going to run, man. Like, that's what I'm going to get from the Nittany Lions. I know that I'm going to get a team that can run the football with two really strong backs. We'll get some RPOs or going to get the tight end moving all around. It's going to be creative with Andy Codal, Nikki. He'll take some of his shots. What I don't know is what level of production or play am I going to get on the outside. To me, that's where the entire game lands for Penn State. So I'm looking at those two names that I mentioned, Trey Wallace. I'm looking at Julian Fleming, maybe a couple of those other guys. Can they give Tyler Warren some help? Because I don't think you can go out and expect 17 catches again from Warren. Like, Ohio State's going to be ready for that. And Ohio State has better matchups than USC did on the tight end, namely Caleb Downs. You know, he's going to be there looking at 44. So those guys have to play big on the outside.
Todd McShay
This is the game, right? For the. For Franklin, right? He's. This is the One that they have not been able to win. He's been up for front about it in years past. Like, if they're going to take it to another level, this is the game, the type of game that they've got to win. If it's different, if the result is different this year, why will that be the case?
Joel Klatt
I just touched on wide receivers. I think one of those guys will have to make a big play. And then I look at that O line for. For Ohio State.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
And. And I'm thinking of this, like, if you just go to 30,000ft for a second and you're. You're James Franklin and you're Penn State and you don't have to see Michigan, you know, this year you don't have to see Oregon. And Ohio State's already lost a game in the Big Ten against Oregon. A second loss eliminates them from the Big Ten championship. Like now, they might still go to the playoff, but it with Indiana being undefeated, like, it eliminates them from the Big Ten championship game. So you've got a chance to really de facto eliminate the Buckeyes in the Big Ten. And they're going to come in with an absolute patchwork offensive line off of a game in which they only ran the football for 2.1 yards per carry. Like, this is it, man. Like, you are at home. I don't. And again, I know that there are injury issues. Yeah. You know, the quarterbacks banged up, denied. Dennis Sutton was banged up last. Last week. The other defensive end opposite Abdul Carter. But there are moments when it's like you just got. You just have to go out and you just have to do it. And Michigan had to cross that threshold a couple of years ago and finally beat Ohio State. And this is kind of one of those moments for Penn State. You've got to go do it. He hasn't. He hasn't beaten Penn State since that. Or, excuse me, Ohio state since that 16 year. Remember when they blocked the field goal? He kind of shaves his job. They go down and they end up winning the Big Ten championship that, that year. Not that there's a ton of pressure, you know, because they would still go to the playoff even if they lost this game. Like, but man, if you're going to do it, this is, this is it, man. I know this team is talented, but it's a defense that's reeling that has given up big plays. It's a team that's reeling because they don't know what's at the. On. On the offensive line. You gotta Win.
Todd McShay
Yeah, well, let's, let's switch real quick because you talked about Colorado. I just. While you're here, real quickly, Coach Prime. Yeah. And what's it been like, like watching your, your squad, what he's done for that program and I guess spinning, spinning it forward, like, what's the future look like for Colorado?
Joel Klatt
Man, those are, I feel like two very different questions.
Todd McShay
You know, I'm not good at this, man. We just started the show.
Joel Klatt
Oh, no. I love it. Let me take right now, right now. There is no other, other way to evaluate this than a. A complete and utter success. Yes, 1000%. Just to give you some perspective of where Colorado was, guys, before Dion walked In, they were 1 in 11. We understand that. It's like, okay, they were 1 in 11, but the level of bad was, was staggering. Their 11 losses in that year, they lost by an average of 29o. They lost seven games by 30 or more. Seven. So, so let's. Let me try to give some context in that. Okay. So I believe Northwestern was also 1 in 11 that year. And, and if you looked at which teams across the country lost by the greatest margin per game, I did this study and it's like Colorado lost by an average of 29. The next closest was Northwestern. Their average margin of defeat was 13. So you're like, you're doubling up the next closest team. I don't think people realize, like, how bad it was. And so he comes in and he's like, hey, listen, like, I'm going to change up the roster. And everyone's like, oh, man, I feel so bad for these kids. He didn't do anything that Lincoln Riley didn't do or Kurt Signetti hasn't done at Indiana. Like these guys change the roster, they come in and they completely blow up the roster. That's what it is. He just did it in a different way with cameras all around. And now everybody's got an opinion and now everybody wants to jump on and you know, they were better last year, certainly, but there was some glaring deficiencies, namely at the line of scrimmage. He made a couple of, I think, really good hires on the defensive side. Namely this young guy, Rob Livingston, who came in. He was the second secondary coach for the Cincinnati Bengals last year. Did not have play calling responsibilities. And he comes in to be a coordinator for the first time. And he's done a marvelous job, guys. Very much in the same vein of a Joe Brady. When he was hired to coordinate at lsu, he had not called plays for, what was it, the Saints Right, Todd? Yeah. The Saints at the time, Ryan Day didn't have play calling duties with San Francisco under Chip Kelly, he was a quarterback coach. But Urban Meyer hired Ryan Day. So like, that's the vein in which Deion hired Rob Livingston and he has been an absolute joy to watch. That defense all of a sudden plays really hard in the front seven. They've got a couple of safeties that I really like. They obviously can cover on the outside with Travis Hunter. The defensive line is playing great. Warren Sapson, assistant defensive line coach and everyone's like, oh wait, that wasn't a gimmick. He's actually getting them to play really hard and they rush the passer. And then on the offensive line they've got Phil Lodola, remember him from OU as their O line coach. And again, a little bit of an outside of the box higher. But that offensive line is so much better.
Todd McShay
They're actually protecting a little bit. I mean, I watch all the Scudor tapes. He's actually getting a little bit of time.
Joel Klatt
That's exactly right. And when you give a little time to him with those receivers, it becomes a really good offense.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
So now they're 6 and 2, they're 4 and 1 in the Big 12. They've got an outside shot to go to the Big 12 championship game, which then becomes a 60 minute coin flip to go to the College Football Playoff. And we're talking about a program that lost by an average of 29 two years ago. So I get like worked up because I'm like, where are you at now, haters? Like, what are you going to talk about now with this guy? You know, and it, it's not just flash. This is substance. This is substance. They're playing really quality football. And I do think Travis Hunter is going to deserve not only a trip to New York for the Heisman Trophy, but real consideration for that trophy. Yeah, I think Shador Sanders has to, has to. I think Shador Sanders at this point would absolutely be first team All American. Maybe Dylan Gabriel sneaks it from him because of his season, but like, look at what Shador is doing. So, you know, that's, that's a real thing, guys. And I'm really proud, I'm really proud of him. I was close to that process and I know it was outside of the box. And he has done incredible things for not only the university, but the community at large and then obviously the program as well.
Todd McShay
Yeah, that's great. So Shador, like, you know, all we're thinking about is first of all his. His tape has been damn good this year. Yeah, he's the best pure passer, in my opinion, in the country.
Joel Klatt
Yes. He's the closest thing that resembles a C.J. stroud.
Todd McShay
Yes. Yes. And. And having a little bit of protection this year, you. You can actually see him. Like, what translates. Right. I. I did find it funny, Dion. We had a clip the other day, and I was going on a rant like. Like, we're like, let's. Let's just start in dealing in reality of Shador may be dictated in terms of where he goes by. By Coach prime. And. And it is what it is. So let's start talking.
Joel Klatt
No, I mean, we had that with Elijah. You know, we have John Elway. Unprecedented, you know, and.
Todd McShay
And so I. I noticed that someone actually sent me a text and said, check out who liked your clip. It was Coach Prime. And I'm. I'm not naive enough to think that he's, you know, sitting around watching the McShay show in the first week, you know, Inception. So, like, there was some intention behind that, right?
Joel Klatt
Totally.
Todd McShay
What do you, like, you know, Coach prime, you know, Shador. You know how. I don't. I'm not going to put words in your mouth, but I think you know how this could play out and what their intentions are. How do you. What do you take us behind the scenes a little bit in terms of what you think the draft process might look like for.
Joel Klatt
It'll look different than most draft processes because every process that they have had, whether it's Deion as a coach, Shador as a player, the way that they promote their own team, themselves, individually, it has looked different than anything prior that we've seen. So moving forward, we're about to see a draft process that looks different than anything that we've ever seen before, because that's been the precedent that they've set with everything that they've done. And that's not a bad thing. I think that Deion is incredibly smart. Like, he's. He is really smart. Everything he's done, ever since he's been in college. Think about inventing the primetime Persona and, like, what that you're. Like, this guy has been ahead of his game and ahead of the sport in general forever. He was ahead of the way you market yourself as a player. He was ahead, and he's now been ahead of the way you market yourself as a coach and as a program. And they will be ahead of what it means to go through the draft process when we know. We know unequivocally the most important part about a quarterback's ongoing success at the next level is fit.
Todd McShay
Right?
Joel Klatt
We know that. We know that they.
Todd McShay
Jaden Daniels, compare it to Bryce Young compared to Sam Darnold. His. His journey, like all of them, 100.
Joel Klatt
Baker Mayfield is the same way. You know, like, you can go on and on and on, and everybody is looking for these unicorns that. That are fit, independent, and it just doesn't happen. Yeah, it just doesn't happen, guys. And. And so if we think that they will just allow Shador to go to wherever, you know, the NFL wants to send him, we got another thing coming. That will not happen. There is. There is no chance on the face of the planet that Shadur winds up in someplace that they don't want him to be. And they will vet that process. They will vet the coordinators, they will vet the head coach. And more importantly, and this is where I think Dion's even, even better. It's not necessarily just about scheme fit and coaching fit, but organizational fit. Because as we know, at the next level, it is incredibly rare for an organization's team to have success when their front office is a mess.
Todd McShay
Yep.
Joel Klatt
Like the front office, ownership specifically. And ownership specifically. You don't see really bad owners win at the top end. You just don't see it really, in any sport, but certainly at the National Football League. And so they'll be ahead of that. There's. There's no. There's not a doubt in my mind that they will be ahead of that. And that's why I. And it's not even just teams that will be in the top 10 that could trade around. I start thinking a little bit outside the box of even, like, aging quarterbacks that are playing for coaches that we know are great coaches and working for great owners. I'm just going to throw. Throw this out. And I know this is wildly early. Wildly early.
Todd McShay
I love it. That's what we're here for.
Joel Klatt
Rams.
Mel Kiper Jr.
I knew he was going to say it. I knew he was going to say it's a. It's a great place for a young quarterback to go. I mean, Stafford's got two more years on the contract. He's, you know, he's 36 now.
Joel Klatt
I think it's. It's LA. It's Todd McShay, it's Dan Cronke. It's a. It's an older quarterback that knows he's not going to play forever.
Todd McShay
Right.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Great system, great coach, great guy to learn.
Todd McShay
And you know what? Yeah, you know what? Like, I'm Old school in a lot of ways. I'm here for it. I'm here for it. You know, it's entertaining.
Joel Klatt
Nothing else. This is going to be incredible to watch.
Todd McShay
It's going to be incredible. Incredible to watch. Right? We've never. And, like, you know, the Mannings were the difference. It's kind of like you talked about when he took the job and turned over the roster. Some people do it and it's just kind of accepted and it's. It's behind the scenes. They're gonna do it different than the Mannings did it. They're going to do it different with. Different than they're going to do. It's going to be in your face, and people are going to be screaming about it. All GMs who are on television are going to be pounding. You know, this isn't the process. I get it. But. But is he wrong?
Joel Klatt
No.
Todd McShay
Right.
Joel Klatt
Like, you know, he's not. He's not going to be wrong. You might.
Mel Kiper Jr.
It was your kid.
Joel Klatt
How would you handle it, exactly? If. If it was you, your kid, and you had this amount of leverage, wouldn't you use it?
Mel Kiper Jr.
Absolutely.
Joel Klatt
Of course.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Joel Klatt
Well, of course.
Todd McShay
I appreciate your time, man. I really do. You don't know it yet, or Mitch. He doesn't know it, but. But he's going to be a. A friend of the show. We're gonna.
Joel Klatt
Oh, nice.
Todd McShay
How. How. How lathered up is Gus Johnson gonna be on Saturday?
Joel Klatt
Oh, buddy. Well, he's. He's gonna be rested because we've had a lot of blowouts this year, you know, so, like, you're gonna get his best. There's no doubt.
Todd McShay
That's got to be a fun booth, man. We appreciate your time. Everyone needs to check out the. The Joel Clatt Show. Better college football show than our show. I can say that with confidence. We'll get there, though.
Joel Klatt
We'll get.
Todd McShay
No, we. We appreciate everything you do. We really looking forward to the call.
Joel Klatt
On Saturday and just happy for you, man. I'm. I'm really happy for you. I was excited to come on today because we didn't get to cross lines a lot at our, you know, at your previous spot and do anything together. And I was trying to think of.
Todd McShay
Last night when I. When I knew you were coming on one of the last times I think we've seen each other. Was it Oregon's pro day with, like, Mariota?
Joel Klatt
Yeah.
Todd McShay
You know, like, we have.
Joel Klatt
I think it was a random pro day. Yes.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
Todd McShay
Yeah. So it's great to see you. It's great to talk to you again. You too and and be well. Safe travel.
Joel Klatt
Good to meet you Steve.
Mel Kiper Jr.
Nice meeting you too.
Todd McShay
You gotta must be 21 plus and present in select states For Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18/ plus and present in D.C. gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.
Podcast Summary: The McShay Show – Episode featuring Joel Klatt
Episode Title: Joel Klatt on Ohio State–Penn State and Colorado’s Deion Sanders Success Story. Plus, McShay’s First College Football Playoff Ranking
Release Date: October 29, 2024
Hosts: Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr.
Guest: Joel Klatt, Fox Sports Lead College Football Analyst
[01:41] Todd McShay kicks off the episode by introducing Mel Kiper Jr. as his co-host. The primary focus is Todd's first-ever College Football Playoff ranking, which outlines his top 12 teams. He emphasizes the significance of the new 12-team playoff system, explaining the seeding process:
Todd elaborates:
"The strength of record combined with the talent level of the team forms the backbone of my rankings." [02:25]
Oregon and Georgia are placed at the top tiers due to their exemplary strength of record and talent. Mel Kiper Jr. expresses concerns about Miami's placement at number 3, questioning their performance consistency and close game losses.
Mel comments:
"Miami has a strong backfield and talented receivers, but their schedule and close losses make me wonder if number 3 is too high for them." [06:34]
Conversely, Texas A&M is moved up to number 6, reflecting a turnaround in their program's discipline and performance under new coaching. Mel supports this shift, highlighting the team's improved execution and defense.
[07:31] Mel Kiper Jr.:
"The talent on Texas A&M's team is undeniable. Their quarterback has become more consistent, and their defensive depth is impressive."
Todd outlines potential playoff scenarios, especially highlighting key matchups between Texas and Texas A&M, which could have significant implications for the playoff standings. Both hosts agree that these games will be pivotal in determining the final rankings.
Todd notes:
"With teams like Texas and Texas A&M in the mix, we're going to see some high-stakes games that could redefine the playoff landscape." [08:21]
A substantial portion of the episode delves into the evaluation of quarterbacks for the upcoming NFL Draft. Todd and Mel discuss various prospects, analyzing their readiness to transition to the professional level.
Todd emphasizes:
"Evaluating a quarterback isn't just about their college performance; it's about their readiness to contribute to an NFL organization." [16:07]
Key quarterbacks discussed include:
Mel concurs with Todd's assessment of Sanders and Ward, acknowledging their readiness and potential to contribute significantly to NFL teams.
[55:37] Todd McShay introduces Joel Klatt, focusing the conversation on the highly anticipated game between Ohio State and Penn State.
Joel Klatt shares his excitement and insights:
Joel states:
"This game is special not only because of the teams involved but also due to the underlying storylines and the immense pressure both programs are under to win." [58:48]
Key Topics Discussed:
Ryan Day’s Leadership at Ohio State:
Joel praises Day's ability to maintain a high standard, stating that "every day is a reckoning" for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State’s Offensive Line Issues:
They analyze the recent struggles of Ohio State’s offensive line, attributing problems to inconsistent performance by new starters and overall lack of cohesiveness.
Joel observes:
"The offensive line isn't performing as a unified group, leading to vulnerabilities in both run and pass protection." [66:57]
Penn State’s Quarterback Situation:
Discussing Penn State’s dilemma with their quarterback position, Joel highlights the potential impact of injuries and the importance of having a versatile and reliable QB.
Defensive Strategies:
Joel critiques Ohio State’s defense, noting that despite strong pass rush statistics, the actual sack numbers lag behind due to scheme weaknesses and lack of individual performances.
Joel remarks:
"Their defense is creating pressure, but the production isn't matching up because of how they're schematically playing." [80:07]
Joel’s Perspective on Key Players:
They discuss standout players like Travis Hunter, projected to be a Heisman contender, and Jeremiah Smith, whose performance could be pivotal.
Joel states:
"Travis Hunter is phenomenal, and if he continues this trajectory, he could easily be among the top wide receivers in the NFL soon." [73:16]
Joel Klatt delves into Colorado’s transformation under Deion Sanders, highlighting the significant improvements in both offense and defense. The hosts discuss how Sanders’ leadership and strategic hires have elevated the program from a struggling team to a contender.
Joel highlights:
"Colorado was 1-11 two years ago with an average loss margin of 29 points. Under Sanders, they've turned it around to 6-2, with a top-tier defense and a revamped offensive line." [87:25]
The discussion shifts to how the current season's performances will influence the NFL Draft, especially concerning quarterbacks and defensive players. Joel emphasizes the importance of organizational fit and readiness over draft position.
Joel advises:
"It's not just about where a quarterback is drafted, but about how ready they are to contribute to an NFL team immediately." [42:46]
Todd wraps up the episode by expressing gratitude to Joel Klatt for his insights and previewing upcoming episodes focused on key games and draft analyses. The hosts encourage listeners to subscribe and stay tuned for more in-depth football discussions.
Notable Quotes:
Todd McShay [16:07]:
"Evaluating a quarterback isn't just about their college performance; it's about their readiness to contribute to an NFL organization."
Mel Kiper Jr. [06:34]:
"Miami has a strong backfield and talented receivers, but their schedule and close losses make me wonder if number 3 is too high for them."
Joel Klatt [58:48]:
"This game is special not only because of the teams involved but also due to the underlying storylines and the immense pressure both programs are under to win."
Joel Klatt [66:57]:
"The offensive line isn't performing as a unified group, leading to vulnerabilities in both run and pass protection."
Joel Klatt [73:16]:
"Travis Hunter is phenomenal, and if he continues this trajectory, he could easily be among the top wide receivers in the NFL soon."
Joel Klatt [87:25]:
"Colorado was 1-11 two years ago with an average loss margin of 29 points. Under Sanders, they've turned it around to 6-2, with a top-tier defense and a revamped offensive line."
This episode of The McShay Show offers a comprehensive analysis of the current college football landscape, with a special focus on playoff rankings, key team performances, quarterback evaluations, and the strategic insights from Joel Klatt on one of the season's most anticipated games. Listeners gain valuable perspectives on team dynamics, player readiness for the NFL, and the transformative impact of coaching changes, particularly highlighting Colorado's resurgence under Deion Sanders.