
Loading summary
Mensch
Foreign.
McShay
There's a lot going on. You get the College Football Playoff semifinals this week, but the NFL regular season just finished up. What does that mean? The NFL draft order is set for the top 16 picks, so it's time to mock 1.0 it right, Stevie boy?
Mensch
Can't wait.
McShay
All right. Also, 108 days till the NFL draft ment. You good? I'm good, man. Tucker, roll that beat, please. Beth Markman and Mike Cambrier came back, came to me one day at ESPN years ago, like a decade or so ago, you know, we should do a mock draft right after the draft order set. And then that wasn't enough. People got so starved they wanted to do a right after the end of the college football season. So we did one in December. But I always felt like this was the right time to do it. This is the first time that we officially have the draft order set. The McShay show is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live in your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. Plus, don't miss out on all the action during the rest of the college football playoffs. Download the FanDuel app or or head to FanDuel.com McShay to get started, must be 21 and older in present in select states or 18 and older and present in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. All right, breaking news. I'm jumping into our own show. Listen, Mench is 6. 5. He's over 250 pounds. We taped this during the Raven Steelers game. We tried to get this whole Mach 1.0 show recorded so that you could enjoy it first thing Monday morning. We wanted to be first to press 6am and you're probably watching it now at 6am or a little bit thereafter. And I'm really excited about what we presented. The only issue is we didn't have the foresight here. And I'll take all the blame for it. By the Ravens losing, they actually wind up with the 14th pick. So ignore what we say. When Tampa bay has the 14th pick, they actually pick 15. Everyone goes bumped down a little bit. I'll give you a bonus pick here. Mansour Delaine is my mock 1.0 pick for the Baltimore Ravens, picking at 14. If you want to read the entire mock draft, it's at the McShay Report. Okay? Google it. If you don't subscribe Already, Google the McShay Report. Subscribe to it. You can read the whole thing, all 32 picks in the correct order with text and a brief breakdown of every single pick right there on the McShay report. For the rest of the show, though, we get into a deep dive of every single pick in the top 15. And it turns out with Baltimore picking at 14, you get a bonus pick here. But I'm not waking the big guy 65250 plus at 1 in the morning to try to redo the entire show when every pick there is valid. So enjoy the rest of the show. If you want to read the McShay report, please do so. All 32 picks are there, but we have a great content here. And here's the rest of the show. Please enjoy. Like I started mocking up the mock a little bit. We after week 17, I'm like, how much can change? That was a fool's errand because like I had to adjust a lot of stuff and finalize the whole thing. So here we are Monday morning. College Football Playoff semifinals are coming up. By the way, the McShay report. It's real now, folks. It was cute. It's fun. Like a lot of stuff going on. Getting your head of the curve on Lane Kiffin. Before that on the Penn State situation, James Franklin, I think it was before that, lsu.
Mensch
Yeah, that's right. That's right. Timeline.
McShay
A lot of draft, you know, updates, a lot of different things during the season. But like here we go. And I got news for you folks. If you're not a subscriber to the McShay report, it's probably your last big moment to subscribe without having to fork over some cash yet. Subscribe. It's free. The whole the full mock draft is out right now. All 32 picks, yes, the order will change 17 through 32 as we go through the playoffs. But generally everyone's kind of where they're going to be in the draft order and the first 16 picks are set. So if you want to read the whole thing with my explanations, some player breakdowns, why teams are going in this direction, what other picks they possibly could take besides what I wind up giving giving them here. It's all in there and it's all free this time before we start rolling out some deals and all the other stuff. But that's all you got to know. Google the McShay Report. Subscribe. Just throw your email address in there. It shows up in Your inbox every single time it's waiting for you. You wake up in the morning, there it is. And we won't send stuff your way unless we feel it's important, especially this time of year. Okay, I'm fired up, Mitch. We got the draft and it changed like, like 7 o' clock Sunday night. Oh yeah, I'll get to the There was one pick that I wrestled with that almost like ruined my entire night if it wasn't ruined already. But let's get through here.
Mensch
The.
McShay
Vegas is number one and the jets are number two. And that's a departure from what we thought it was just a week ago. There's not going to be a trade exactly.
Mensch
We thought the Giants would be there. That would be the first pivot point in the, in the draft of what's going to happen here. Who's going to come up.
McShay
And we thought with the Giants picking it too. If Dante Moore is. Is involved in this draft, which remains to be seen. I mentioned the College Football Playoff semifinals Thursday and Friday night, by the way. We're going to be live the end of the show or the end of the game. We start our show Thursday night. We do the whole thing, last five, seven minutes of the game. We jump on, we react, we act like clowns. We reset and we give you a full. A full reaction show. And then we're going to re rack it Friday night. We didn't do that last year. I don't think. I don't think we did both games. We're doing both games this year. I can't remember. Maybe we did.
Mensch
I couldn't remember either. I. I was wondering if we did.
McShay
But we're going to be here Thursday night and Friday night. So this is a Fun Week. Mock 1.0 for the 2026 NFL Draft semifinal game Thursday night. Come join us live on YouTube. We'll send out the link on @mcshay13 for my X post you at you good mensch M ch on his Twitter handle and we'll get you all the information. But if you just go to the McShay show page on YouTube you can find it all there. I'm guessing the folks always trade back ATB and Cole, Marie and Haas and. And all the other gang. Jeremy.
Mensch
God.
McShay
And they might be on the chat now. So it's. We're getting fired up and we had, by the way, Saturday night after the quarter quarterfinals the largest audience we've ever had on our show. Which shows the growth, which shows people are kind of figuring out what we're doing here. And my appreciation is the rare time I'll speak for Steve. I. I know how appreciative he is for everyone who supported all this stuff. So thank you very much and hopefully it grows even bigger Thursday and Friday night.
Mensch
All right. Yeah. Thank you.
McShay
Brass Tax man.
Mensch
Let's get into it, man.
McShay
And we'll. I never know the mechanics, how we want to do this, right. We're going to go through the first 15 picks here. The rest of it you can get in the McShay report and I don't want to rip off. Let's go through the first two picks now and then Tucker can show the graphic for the rest of the. Of the 15 picks and then we can have a discussion and you can pick it apart. I mean it.
Mensch
There's no waiting for the fireworks in this one, by the way. I feel like in a lot, you know, a lot of mock drafts, you know, this is chalk for the first two, three, four picks. And then you might get a. You might get something that's juicy. This one right out of the gate. There's going to be. It's going to be a great debate.
McShay
There are two quarterbacks in the first round. Ty Simpson will find out if he declares or doesn't declare. He was. We all think he should go back to school for another year. Didn't finish the season. You wait the way you want to. We know the two quarterbacks. Fernando Mendoza just won the Heisman Trophy. He just beat. He just in the. In the Big Ten championship. Ohio State.
Mensch
Yep. And annihilated Alabama.
McShay
Just annihilated Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Heisman Trophy winner, presumptive number one overall pick. Not here. Dante Moore is my first overall pick going to the Las Vegas Raiders. Why is the question. There's a lot to get into and I want to actually just have a good conversation here because I think it's important and I'm not going to bury the lead, obviously. If Dante Moore from Oregon goes one, Fernando Mendoza goes two to the New York jets and. And truth be told, I had the jets trading up when I was kind of, you know, pre mocking it up after week 17. Just taking a look at different scenarios. I thought the jets are the most likely with all the ammunition they have this year and next year to make that move up wherever they were. They don't have to now. Works out well.
Mensch
It's great for them.
McShay
Yeah. What wasn't great for them was getting their ass handed to them against Buffalo after. After getting their ass handed, they ran out of asses. The last several weeks, let's put it.
Mensch
This is good though. This is. In the long run, it's good that they don't have to give up all these. Now they could build without having to give up any of those assets because, I mean, they need everything. They need everything.
McShay
So here's the conversation I want to have with you. And it's preliminary. We don't know if Dante Moore is going to be in this draft or not. And technically Mendoza hasn't declared, but we all know he's going to be. Here's how I see it. If I had to go win a game in the NFL, or if I had to, if you said my entire career and family's income was riding on. Okay, scheme aside, same scheme, scheme neutral. One of these two quarterbacks has got to go win you the most games in one season as a rookie. Who would it be? I would take Mendoza right now. The. Right now I think Mendoza has grown exponentially off of the. The young man that I saw at Cal in 2024 on tape, cutting down on, on critical errors and turnover, turnover worthy type plays. And I'm talking the film study, not the, you know, whatever, whatever analytics you're looking at. I'm talking about putting the ball in harm's way. I think the best thing that happened to him in going to Indiana was that he got with a coach who's maniacal about the details about the team and how your decisions affect the whole team, not just one offensive drive. And what we're trying to do here and the understanding of ball security and the importance of doing all the little things. And you matched up a person who's in, in Coach Signetti, Kurt Signetti, who's, who's just like wound as tight is like, like he's Nick Saban type tight in terms of the details and the process with a young man who was kind of starved for that. He loves the details. He loves the process, he loves putting in the work. He's a nerd. Listen to his interviews. And I mean that like in the best possible way.
Mensch
Right?
McShay
The things that matter so greatly in the NFL. And Peyton Manning's like fun and the fun commercial guy and, and Brady's like the cool. I got all, you know, private jets and all these awesome things and Art Basel and at the end of the day they are like insane nerds for the game of football. And that's, that's a compliment. And Mendoza has a lot of those qualities. He's a young pup, but he's got those qualities. And so it Watching him this year prosper, it was the perfect marriage of, of a man, a young man who was looking into be a sponge for all this stuff and a proven coach at different levels, but proven now at the highest level that has made a career. Google him winning because of the details and the process. And so I love that about him and I love 6, 4, 6, 5, whatever. We'll see what he is at the, at the combine. I love 220. I love a guy who can run some. I love a guy who's got a lot of juice in the ball and I love a guy who's tough as fucking nails, who takes that hit in the first game of Ohio State and bounces right back up. Who takes two sacks in the first series at Alabama, in the Rose bowl unconscious right back up. You know, I love the clutch moments. Oregon, Iowa, Penn State all on the road. Ohio State 4th down or whatever it was the down the field throw late fourth quarter down the right rail. I love all of it. So if the pick is Vegas takes Mendoza, I'm like great off and running. Here we go. But here's the question that we need to discuss a lot between now and the draft. If Moore is in the draft, if you're building long term and you have the infrastructure in place and I don't know if the Raiders do, can Tom Brady help an organization with a general manager, with an owner, can they get the right structure in place? And if Brady's big mission football wise post career is to help young quarterbacks develop in the league, Bring these guys in who he's gone on rants. Colin Cowherd different places about quarterbacks aren't being developed properly in college. They need to come in, they need to sit, they need to learn. And I don't know if Gino Smith would be the guy or somebody else would be the guy, but if you told me that you'd have a year like Patrick Mahomes had a year to sit back and watch and learn and be a part of the whole process and figure all the things out. And you gave, gave me the 10 year career of the best pure passer in all of college football. A guy who throws such a catchable ball that it's like watching, it's like listen like reading poetry or looking at some like fine art if you're into that kind of thing with classical music playing, I mean that's Dante Moore. We said a lot of the same things about CJ Stroud too. And Stroud's had some ups and some downs and you know.
Mensch
Yeah.
McShay
When Stroud has been great it's pretty special and we'll see this playoff run. What happens with Houston he I don't think he's quite playing at the level he was as a rookie but when he was and there's some moments like it can be really damn good. So I'm saying all that men to say and there's been some rumblings we've talked to some people and they've sent more the Raiders sent more people to the recent bowl game to watch more than maybe they've had at Indiana. But I do there is something too and I've heard it from multiple places now and I'm going to put this much stock in it but I'm not going to put no stock in it. Like I knew about the Jackson Dart stuff and that doesn't mean like I promise you I know I'm not guessing I know that Brian Dabel had to talk Joe Shane into but Joe Shane had some I think what his daughter went to school Ole Miss and they had they had spent more time there than anywhere else and Jackson Dartner so take it for what it's worth but it feels like there's some and I from talking to people I know in the league there are some people who view more as the greater upside chance to be something a little bit better than maybe Mendoza can be. So with all of that said I decided to make it I wanted people who read this or to watch this show to get the understanding that this is not Mendoz is definitively number one and if more comes out where's he going to go? Is it. Is it to the jets at two or you know this is going to be like and the beauty is tell.
Mensch
Them it starts this week. Yeah, it starts this week. Yeah.
McShay
Round two men feel together more. Right. So what are you.
Mensch
They're not going. They're not obviously they're going against the same defense about this week but those are both good defenses. Oregon's defense, you know their corners have struggled at times but that Oregon defense is still really good. That Indiana defense is really good. This is a great matchup prime time high stakes. I I hate to do this because it's not. It doesn't make for great TV or you know. But I agree with you on everything that you're saying. I take Mendoza now if I need to win now if I'm. If I'm planning long term and I think he's going to have the better career I'm taking more I that I see the Same things that you're talking about. I will say this. I did say it was great that the jets got the second pick, but if Dante Moore decides to return to school, that is not going to be the case. They are going to be in a, a tough situation there. It's going to be interesting if that happens.
McShay
For who? How do you mean? For the Jets.
Mensch
If Dante Moore returns to school, the Raiders will take Fernanda Mendoza and not even look back. I mean, Fernanda Mendoza is not a consolation prize. He. This is what's going to be great about this debate. Fernanda Mendoza is going to be a really good pro quarterback. In my mind, I think he's going to be really good. I just like Dante Moore a little bit. So if Dante Moore. Even if the Raiders favor Dante Moore over Mendoza right now, if Moore goes back, I don't think they, they would hesitate to take Mendoza. You know what I mean? What I'm saying is that if the jets, if only there's only one quarterback in this, then whoever's picking second is somehow picking second in a real bad spot because it's a thin quarterback class.
McShay
The Raiders organization right now is obviously in, in, in turmoil. If you're picking number one, overall, things are a mess. I want to, I want to take a detour here for a minute.
Mensch
Okay.
McShay
We've seen a lot of different stuff recently. Nil transfer portal, more communication between the college and the NFL, player empowerment and mostly in a good way, but also kind of signs towards maybe these young men who were quote unquote, raised in football differently. They feel more empowered because they are more empowered. I'm going to throw this out there. I literally, as you were talking, just thought about this concept. Underclassmen. I mean, young men of agence, like almost in middle school. Now, if you're representing Dante Moore for as with the Raiders, you know, you have an organization steep in history with an owner whose father steep in the like, like entrenched in the great history of the NFL. Trying to do the right thing, misguided at times, brings in Tom Brady, who can be a source of like, helping. Although this first go round was not pretty. But how much did Tom like. I feel like next year with a new coaching staff, as we all presume, Pete Carroll will be out and there will be a new staff. Would you or would you not, as the representation or the representative, the rep for Dante Moore, kind of reach out to the Raiders and say, hey, my clients trying to make a decision, give me. We can live with going to 30 of the 32 teams, maybe it's 31. I can't allow him to go the New York jets and I realize in 2027, maybe he's the seventh pick or the fifth pick or. Yeah, or maybe he's the first overall pick in. The jets have all that ammo and they can get him there, but I can't allow him to just. He's got an opportunity to go back to Oregon, probably make the same amount of money that he's going to make in his rookie contract. Phil Knight will make that happen. So I can allow my client to go back to Oregon and have another season with a new offensive coordinator because Will Stein's going to Kentucky or you can pretty much promise me that he's going to be the number one overall pick. Is that so far fetched? Because I know it's not. But we're not one single player in this entire draft, unless they grew up a Jets fan or have some kind of family tie, wants to be a New York Jet.
Mensch
I agree. I think there's a whole.
McShay
And that's an ownership thing. That's no. 1 that's there right now. Coaches, general manager, staff, like I know people, it's a gener.
Mensch
It's.
McShay
It is an ownership problem that, you know, I have a deep rooted issue with. But it ain't wrong. Just because it's deep rooted, it ain't wrong. Two things.
Mensch
I think that jets fans understandably get upset and I know they were upset when I said that, that, you know, it's a real concern about your quarterback going there. And it is. I think there's a, I think there's a newsletter there should talk about that offline, obviously, because I think we should go into detail about what the timeline is for the different coaches and the different quarterbacks that have gone through there and why it's such a concern regardless of the coaching staff. The second thing I'll say is the NCAA is in a really interesting spot right now. And when I look at college basketball, I don't understand why players are allowed to go back to college after declaring for the draft and what that looks like. And I'm wondering if players are going to start suing if they get drafted by a team that they don't like for the ability to go back or what that might look like. It's going to be interesting. It's more likely what you're talking about right now, though I do think, especially these agents, you know, you have a better feel for the agent community. And I don't know what kind of circles they, they travel in. Do college, do agents that represent college players, do they or do they have relationships with these front offices, with these organizations where they could call and say, oh yeah, so they must. Right?
McShay
They must. They have, there's, yeah, of course. I mean every general general manager has to deal with these agents to get all the deal, the deals done.
Mensch
Yeah.
McShay
It's not the power that we see with Jimmy Sexton and the coaches in college football. Not even there's not the rookie contracts is very little power. You saw Smart Stewart's agent try to flex some power against an organization that's, that's questionable in its structure and approach with the Cincinnati Bengals. And that didn't get everyone very far. You know what I mean? So I don't know.
Mensch
Listen, I think Baylor, the Baylor, I think it's the Baylor basketball team right now has a player that was drafted into the NBA and played in the NBA Development League and is now playing college basketball. I mean it is the Wild West. And I'm, I'm hesitant to really speak on it too much because I, I, but nothing's out of the question to me like it, it seems like anything can happen right now.
McShay
I did Write in the McShay Report and you can read all of it, but I, I did mention this thing as we're kind of going back and forth with Dante Moore going one in Mendoza too. I did say this. While I don't wish it on any quarterback or any player to go to the New York Jets, I do think Mendoza, in fact. All right, let's look at the quarterbacks that have gone to the jets have been early, early picks that have failed. All three of them lacked experience, were younger. All three were talented.
Mensch
Yep.
McShay
Sam Darnold, more talented than Mark Sanchez, more talented than Zach Wilson, but all three were talented.
Mensch
Yeah.
McShay
They were all young and they all inexperience. And so I, I, I would much rather if we're just talking about the good of what the good of the whole. I'd rather see a Dante Moore in, in with the Raiders with a part owner in Brady who's obsessed with trying to, you know, make sure that we're not shoving a young quarterback in there too early. And Mendoza, who I wrote about this, Mendoza is uniquely mature, understands who he is more than most quarterbacks coming out the growth, the things he's had to overcome in his life in football and beyond. I just see him and I've seen it honestly in the last couple months too now with the media exposure and the Heisman and he's just he's unapologetically and there's nothing to apologize. He's just himself and. And I think he. Because he's older and more mature and more game experience than Sam Darnold was at the time and Sanchez and Zach Wilson, I would give him a better shot of succeeding there than those guys had.
Mensch
That tracks for me that that adds up. And it's not that Dante Moore is mature for his age either. It's just.
McShay
Sorry. Dante Moore by the way, is. Is like renowned for his maturity. You know I'm talking.
Mensch
It's just a different thing.
McShay
Believably mature for their age. And for. But. But a little bit more game experience. There's definitely like 10 + game more games for Mendoza than. More and Mendoza now like with. I don't know, it just. It feels like he's. He's more football mature. Football experience mature than. Than Moore is at this point. But don't get that twisted at all. Like talk to anyone around more. He is. He's a special dude in terms of maturity and the way he handles things and his poise and all of it.
Mensch
That's what's gonna be interesting about this debate going forward. If Dante Moore does. If they both come out, I guess from the draft is it's going to be a lot of nuanced conversations because they're both such high end prospects in my mind.
McShay
Yeah. All right, here's where it goes.
Mensch
Gets really good here. I love it.
McShay
Yeah. Let's just go through pick three and then we can rattle off the rest.
Mensch
Okay.
McShay
I had Arizona picking at 5. This is. I'm just giving the mechanics. I promise transparency from October 20th, 22nd, 2024 is when we started the show. The very first thing I came out, I promised transparency because I've had to live behind these weird fake walls for my whole TV life. The transparency is when I started kind of mocking this thing up, getting prepared to do it and. And was Arizona's picking at 5, 5 or 6. Actually they might have been at. I think it was five. And Jeremiah Love sitting there, the running back from Notre Dame, arguably most talented indiv. Like one of the top two or three most talented individuals in this entire draft. Some people might even have him as number one overall prospect if you throw out the position. But he's a running back and he's sitting at 5 and that felt a little rich. But I was like, it's okay. This is a class and mind you big picture, this class has a lot of talent. It's just. It's void of elite pro. Like, the first 10 picks are not necessarily what you're dying to have for the top 10 picks, but.
Mensch
Right.
McShay
So at five, I felt a lot better. And then all of a sudden at like 5 o' clock on Sunday after the, the first game, the first set of the 1 o' clock games Eastern Time, Arizona's picking at 3. And I'm like, am I going to put a running back at 3?
Mensch
So you change the pick.
McShay
No.
Mensch
You'Re. I absolutely love you and I love it. It's. It's great.
McShay
I mean, because here, because here's what I looked at. I'm like, all right, what does Arizona need? First of all, they need a quarterback. Let's not bury the lead.
Mensch
They're taking a quarterback, right? If they could. If their quarterback's there, they're taking a quarterback.
McShay
Absolutely. But there isn't one there.
Mensch
Yeah.
McShay
In no world is there, Whether it's just Mendoza in this class or whether it's Mendoza and more, they're both gone. Unless, like, I'd be shocked if they're. If one of those two is available. And I love Ty Simpson and I see his future and you know how much I love Ty Simpson, but he's got to go back to school. And if he doesn't, I'm worried enough where I'm not taking him at three. And I'm from Kyler Murray, but I think this organization's moving on. They've signaled like we're moving on from Kyler Murray. And so in this scenario, it's maybe another year with Jacoby Brissette, maybe draft one in the second, third round. Maybe you hit on like, Garrett Nussmeier or, I don't know, or, or you. Or you try to trade back. But who's trying to trade up in a draft that I just told you doesn't have elite talent at the top? So now I'm looking at. And I'm saying I don't want to take a running back. I don't care how good he is at 3. But yeah, they need an offensive tackle and they drafted Paris Johnson. They moved him from right to left tackle. And their two right tackles who did not play well this year, Beam. And who's William?
Mensch
Jonah Williams.
McShay
Jonah Williams. And. And, yeah, and beam set to be free agents.
Mensch
Yeah.
McShay
I love Francis, Maui Noah, but he's a, He's a really good right tackle or a Pro bowl guard, however you want to look at it. Am I taking a guy who might be a guard at three? How is that any different from taking a running back. You know what I mean? So I struggled with this one man.
Mensch
You rationalized.
McShay
What would you have done?
Mensch
I wouldn't, I would have taken Spencer Fano, the tackle from Utah because I think he's that good. I mean, you have him as your number two tackle, I'm guessing, on your board behind.
McShay
Now, I know this is a mock draft. Isn't necessarily rankings. I have not. I get it. But I also like I'm talking to people. I don't know.
Mensch
I like Fano there. I, I, I am.
McShay
I know you do. I don't know that that that represents what the league is saying right now. But I have, I've been talked to. Like this isn't. We're not in March, April. I haven't talked so as many people and we'll start that at the Senior bowl. But I've talked to people and I don't know. Anyway, I'll let you.
Mensch
I don't know how much you want to give away, but when I was looking at this, I wanted to look at recent draft cycles. In the last four cycles, at least three offensive tackles have gone in the top 15 picks. I don't see that changing this year. Unless you, unless you say Maui Noah is definitively a guard for you. And I'm not saying, I'm saying royal you. The royal you. If someone decides, oh, he's a guard, so he's not a tackle, so that doesn't count. Man. Like, whatever. You're nitpicking. I think there will be three offensive tackles taken in the top 15 picks. I think Spencer found is the best of the, of the group. I would.
McShay
Proctor being the third.
Mensch
I think Caleb Lomu is the third. I think he's that good. He's coming out.
McShay
No. Yeah, I know that.
Mensch
Yeah. I like him that much. I think Kaden Proctor and by the way, Kane Proctor is going to go on the first round. He'll be one of those guys that goes like in, like in the teens anyway. So maybe he will. But I think probably 18, 19, 20.
McShay
I've got him in the 20s in this mock.
Mensch
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised that I think that's, that's reasonable for him.
McShay
Again.
Mensch
We'll see early days, but that's what I would have done at this time. And I love Jeremiah. Love. I, I love the idea of them doing it because of a running back guy. I really am. But it's even for me. Even for me. I'm looking.
McShay
I know.
Mensch
Saying, oh, I didn't even go back.
McShay
And look at it. I know there's just not many in the top five ever. Like, Gurley was five.
Mensch
You think about Genti last year went six. That has really worked out well for them. And I don't think that's Genti's fault. I think, again, these are positions. Tight end, running back, you know, quarterback. Like, there's just. You have to have a structure around them for them to be successful. And I'm not sure if you don't have a right tackle that your running back's going to be worth the third pick. So I. I like it. I. And I look. And I especially like that you were aggressive because this is so out of character for you.
McShay
I know I came out hot, but you did it.
Mensch
You must love the player. You must love the player.
McShay
I do. I do, obviously. But there's no Joe all, like, even Will Campbell. A Great debate at 4 last year.
Mensch
Correct. I am not saying that. You're right. You are.
McShay
A lot of good tackles. They're like, there's depth.
Mensch
You're right. It's not as clean.
McShay
It's. Yeah. The McShay show is brought to you by FanDuel. The field is down to the final four and. And every play now decides who moves on. The college football semifinals are here. And with just two massive game days left before the championship, FanDuel is giving you something extra. That's right. All customers get a profit boost each College Football Playoff semifinal game day. That means more chances to level up your picks and turn big moments into even bigger wins. I'll tell you what a big win would be. I'll tell you what a big moment would be after going 6 and 2 in the college Football Playoff game. So far against the spread, I kind of like the Ducks plus four and a half. It started at three and a half and now it's four and a half. I think the Ducks are kind of just laying in the weeds a little bit. You got Dante Moore versus Mendoza, 1, 2 off the board in the NFL Draft. This is a chance for more to kind of redeem himself after losing at home against Mendoza in Indiana. Ducks are sneaky right now. I'm going to take those four and a half points. Even though I think Indiana could win this game. We'll see how it plays out. Visit FanDuel.com McShay to get your College College Football Playoff profit boost today. That's FanDuel.com McShay to get that playoff profit boost today, must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-gambler or visit rghelp.com call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. All right, so let's. I'll rip through the the rest of the top 10. Carnell Tate. Oh, no, sorry. Arvel Reese, linebacker, Ohio State. Going to Tennessee. Giants at 5. Carnell Tate, wide receiver, Ohio State, Cleveland at 6. There's my offensive tackle, Ma Noa Francis. Ma Noa from Miami. Washington at seven, edge, David Bailey. I feel good about this pick. I don't know that you do, but I don't. I'm not here for you. I'm here for. Number eight, New Orleans. I was throwing up watching my poor son Tate, who wanted the Buccaneers to get in the playoffs. Huge Baker Mayfield fan.
Mensch
Well, maybe they should win a game or two.
McShay
The Buccaneers decided to play one solid game, not even a good game in the last two months. And he needs New Orleans to beat Atlanta. And New Orleans did just about everything it could. Tyler Shuck threw the pick that. That cost him the field goal their field goal kicker had already.
Mensch
But.
McShay
But my biggest takeaway from it was Chris Olave's always got something, and I feel terrible for him. Terrible for him. There's always something. He's so talented, and now it's a blood clot, and we'll see how that plays out. But even with Olave, they need more weapons because they got their guy at quarterback. Nothing has been more apparent to me this year with this rookie class than the Saints have got their guy at quarterback. So remember, they.
Mensch
They traded Rashid Shahid in the middle of the season. So, yeah, they need a receiver. I mean, they gotta get one.
McShay
I want Jordan Tyson there, and we can get into the nitty gritty. My goodness. Remember, I bitched all summer long about if Jordan Tyson could just catch the ball. Do you know his. His. His rate, his drop rate went from 8.5, which I thought was generous.
Mensch
It was.
McShay
It felt like 15. Drop rate in 2024 to 1.6.
Mensch
Love that.
McShay
Outside of LASIK surgery, do you know there's only one way to do something like that, and it's the grind.
Mensch
I just love that. I love that. Yeah, you catch a thousand balls. I practice every day. Yep.
McShay
All right. Chiefs at 9. Interesting lot of retirement news. Potentially About Travis Kelce. Regardless. Kenyan Sadiq tight end Oregon. This is going to be a retooled Chiefs next year. Mahomes get, get him a difference maker.
Mensch
I'm holding my thoughts until the end.
McShay
Okay. Sorry. Cincinnati. Ruben Bane, you say? Oh, well, another guy who doesn't have great sack production. Ruben Bane going to the Bengals. Well, he's 23rd in the FBS with eight and a half sacks. Third among all P4 edge rushers. 23.7 pass rush win rate. Yeah, he's got short arms. I get it. But there I think edge. I mean honestly, give Cincinnati the best defensive player, please.
Mensch
All right.
McShay
There you go. So that rounds up four picks, four through 10. After Dante Moore, Oregon goes one to Vegas. Fernando Mendoza goes to Jets. Arizona. Overly aggressive pick by me, but I, I still kind of like it. Jeremiah love running back Notre Dame. What do you think? Match.
Mensch
Carnell Tate. Let's start there. Carnell Tate went so many, so many notes here. Carnell Tate, the Ohio State wide receiver who I love, I love you. You are constantly putting me in a position to act like I don't like the Ohio State receivers. Last year it was, I thought Igbuka was a second round guy. Oh, he's definitely a first round guy.
McShay
Carnell Tate at, at five. Yeah.
Mensch
They have a, they have a run defense that can't stop a nosebleed. They are the like the worst run defense in the league. And Peter woods is sitting there and you're gonna take Carnell Tate.
McShay
I get it. I like Peter woods. And you know what? It wouldn't shock me. I had Peter woods going a little bit later. I, but I had him going mid first round. I could see him in the top 10.
Mensch
Yep.
McShay
You know, his pass rush win rate went from 14 to 8.4. How do you get worse? How do you get worse?
Mensch
I hear you. I just, I, I, I think he's too good. I think he's too good there in terms of value meets need. That pick makes way too much sense for me. Other than, and I know they need a receiver, but I think they need other, other than a receiver. I think an offensive. There. I've, I've said this over and over again. They have one of the best left tackles in the league. Get a right tackle because you have a, you have a young stud running back and you have a quarterback who could be great if you.
McShay
I could live with Maui Noah there. I could even live. I honestly, I could live. I actually like Peter woods more than I think people in the league. I think you and I are kind of aligned. Like he's still a top 10 prospect for me. So I, I could see that. I just like, you get neighbors back, you add a car. I see the need, you know, is going to be NFL ready.
Mensch
Right.
McShay
Carnell Tate goes from 14 yards a catch to 17 and change a catch this year. Much more importantly for a quarterback who's still kind of working through it in his second year. His contested rate. Remember we talked during the. I'm like, I mean he's just catching the ball in traffic better. He's getting like the balls up in the air. And I frustrated this summer. I was like, I just wish he was a little like, like more alpha when the ball's in the air. He was 60% contested in 20, 24, 85.7 this year. That's a guy who's a big frame getting bigger, getting stronger and acting the dog. That's the difference I saw in Tate this year. The route running, yes, but acting the dog.
Mensch
I really like him. I really, I really like him. Unlike last year, I really like him in the first round. Five is rich and especially for a guy missed some time this year.
McShay
A guy now you got dart Year two, Scatter Boo's back. Neighbors is back. Carnell Tate. I don't know.
Mensch
And you're still giving up five point whatever yards per carry in a draft.
McShay
That I don't have. I don't have Campbell and I don't have Mason Graham and I don't have. And in last year's class we were even saying that those guys true Dexter Lawrence and they're not Joe Alt and they're not. It's. It's kind of gone like this before 2027 is the best draft in the history of mankind. Okay. Yeah, it already is.
Mensch
Like what you're saying, I think is I. And I would agree with this if this is what you're saying. A lot of starters, not a lot of pro bowlers in this, in this draft is maybe the way to look at it.
McShay
Probably, probably. But I also like, I feel like we say that a lot of years and then you look back and you're like, my gosh, did we underrate that draft. So like, let's, let's.
Mensch
We'll see.
McShay
Let's get through the process. What else you got?
Mensch
Hold on. 9 I Again, this is a pick that is a fun pick. Kenyan sneak to the Chiefs. That would be the earliest the tight end has gone since Pitts. Pitts went 4, I think to Atlanta and 21.
McShay
You're gonna have to throw out some of your record book stuff. And I love, I love, I know, I know you know, I'm a big contact SC guy, but this year's draft's going to be funky. Our best players, I think it is. Our best players are running backs and tight ends and safeties and guards.
Mensch
Yes. You know what I mean?
McShay
Like, we might have to throw the like.
Mensch
And I love the idea of it. I love that Sadiq, oh my goodness. With Patrick Mahomes of what that could turn into. And it's great. I do think that the other one, I thought the two picks, I thought Kansas City because of Mahomes and because of how great that defense still is. I think Kansas City had a chance to make a fun pick here, get a talented player without having to really like, fill a need. I thought Jeremiah Love here, if he, if he doesn't go to Arizona, Jeremiah Love here would have been. No question.
McShay
No question.
Mensch
Would have been great. So either way, that was going to be a fun one. That's one. I, I'm gonna. That'll be enjoyable to see what happens there.
McShay
All right, so that rounds up. So let's go 11 through 15. Okay. Miami Dolphins blasted by the Patriots to finish off a roller coaster season. I went Keldrick Falk. I'm, I'm really intrigued. Like I need to dive back into his tape. I did early this season. I did all of last year. I want to see where we are exactly. But he's six, seven, he's 270 pounds. He's got length, he's got power, he's got agility. The sack production is not where you want it, but I also want Dolphins fans and anyone else who's interested in the draft to recognize this young man is one of the youngest players. I'll get a list later, but he's going to be among the two or three youngest players in the entire class. Okay, so give me 6, 7, 2, 70, whatever the exact measurables are at the combine and give me that youth and a player who's already a damn good run defender, active pressures, all those things. And I feel like I can mold them, you know?
Mensch
Yep.
McShay
All right. Dallas 12, one of the, let's just say five best football players, maybe three best football players in the entire class. Caleb Downs, his tape this year doesn't look any different than last year. It's just that Arvell Reese turned into superhuman for the most of the season. And when he wasn't superhuman, Sonny Stiles went from a good player to an absolutely Sensational player in front of him, and there were just new faces and yet a new coordinator, and it kind of lost in all the shuffle. But you go look at his tape, his stats, his grades, like everything that you want to look at anywhere you, you like to get your information from. It's all the same as last year. And last year he was like the face of college football on the defensive side. Last year, Caleb Downs was the face of a national championship defense that, mind you, sent eight upperclassmen to the NFL and he was the guy. Nothing's changed and. But do you think Dallas could use a leader, a glue guy, a guy who's always in the right position, who's unbelievably instinctive, who's going to cut down on big plays and make big plays? I just, I love that fit. If that. If Dallas would wind up going that way, then the Rams, I had Spencer Fano. I'd be interested if they could get a deal to move out of this pick. I'm certain they want to get involved next year. I. I know less. Sean. Those guys, like, they didn't. They weren't counting against Stafford, but they were planning for at some point. Human, like humans regress at a certain age. And it just so happens that Stafford was. If he's not the mvp, he's going to be the runner up to Drake. Drake. May. May. Sonny Styles, number 14. It's rich. I get it.
Mensch
That's two off the ball linebackers in your top 50, by the way. No, I, I'm shaking my head because I'm. It's this, it's this funky draft you're talking about. I'm gonna see if this, this is a developing story right now.
McShay
It's a developing story. It's going to throw a wrench into all of our trends.
Mensch
I had Styles in my top 15 as well.
McShay
Okay.
Mensch
In this, in this mock draft exercise.
McShay
That would be 14 to Tampa Bay. And if you're stuck watching Tampa Bay even when they're in a 5, 6 game losing streak because your son's obsessed, and you watch Jamal Dean and you watch like, man, they need defensive players. Yeah, they got a great safety in Winfield Jr. They get okay corners, they get a big Vita Vea, but they, they just need dudes up front in the front seven and the guys who could tackle. And then I had Peter woods, admittedly too low. Admittedly. But Miami took a defensive tackle, Dallas brought in Quinn and Williams. Tampa had Vita Vea and then also the Pittsburgh Clancy collage. Clancy. Yep. I just. When in Cincinnati like they need edge. So I kind of got stuck in a spot is if he. If he doesn't go, if woods doesn't go like you said. 5. Cleveland just took a defensive tackle, traded back a few spots with Jacksonville and took Mason Graham. He could go Washington 7. Anyway, so Peter woods falls, but with an * Mach 2.0. He will go higher. We'll get it sorted out, I believe. I also want to see him work out. I also want to talk to.
Mensch
Scouts. About.
McShay
What? Like the. Why early days, man, I know there's a lot.
Mensch
Going. It's early days. I think the other. The other thing that I point out in terms of early days, and I think a lot of this has to do with the Tennessee corner, Jamar J. McCoy, being out with a knee injury. I think some corners are going to be sneaking up into this top 15. They're going to Monster Delaine from LSU. I really like Chris Johnson from San Diego State. I'm not saying he's going to go that early, but this corner class as the. As we get closer and as we progress, I think there's going to be some corners up there. I love the Caleb Downs pick to Dallas because I think Miami at 11 is the basement for Downs. I don't think Miami, for some of the same reasons you said with Dallas, I don't think Miami is going to let him get by them. Regardless of the fact that they probably need a corner more than a safety, they're going to look at Caleb Downs and be. And say to themselves, we need. We need a guy who's going to change the. The environment around here, the. The. Whatever it is, you know what I'm trying to say? And they're going to snatch up downs. The tough thing about that with these staffs is we don't know who's going to be coaching in Miami. I highly doubt it's going to be Mike McDaniel. So you don't know what the fit is? I don't know. You think.
McShay
So? Yeah, we'll see. We'll see. Maybe.
Mensch
Yeah. Regardless of that.
McShay
Though, coming in to put a stamp, a football stamp on who their next general manager is, right? Isn't that what I just.
Mensch
Read? Oh, man, I didn't. I did not see that. But I guess the worst things could happen. But regardless of what you're doing, Caleb Downs is going to be a guy. You're going to want your building someone. We're going to look at all these needs and safeties. Don't go high. Someone is going to Take that game. The top 12 picks, I.
McShay
Think.
Mensch
Yeah. And I had Sunny Styles going to Tampa, man, so I don't hate.
McShay
That. The two, the two cornerbacks I had going shortly thereafter, I won't give it away. If you want to, if you want to check out where they went, go to the McShay report, Google it. If you don't subscribe already, get involved. It's going to be a fun few month ride. Anything else of note before we let the folks go get on with their week? We'll see you Thursday night. We'll see you Friday night. Come join us. Live shows, Live reaction shows the last five, seven minutes of the game. We'll send out information as we get closer, but just count on us. It's going to be around like what, 11 o' clock at night. You're watching the final seven minutes of the game. Hop on, get involved in the chat, watch the game. And then we'll reset, we'll have Tucker play the music and we'll give a full reaction and then on we go. Good. Like our show. Hour and a half show, whatever it.
Mensch
Takes. You see Riley Leonard today played pretty well. He played pretty well against the Texans, man. Had a 55 yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce right out of the gate. It was, he was put on a.
McShay
Show. I was not watching that specifically, but I saw, I saw some, some, yeah, some clips. Is that what, is that what you.
Mensch
Got? Well, I was just, well, I was just thinking last year we were watching, at this time last year we were watching Riley Leonard for Notre Dame and saying, is this kid going to even get drafted? And then we started all. I think me and you both started to fall in love with him. The more we watched him, the more we, we heard about his leadership. And the next thing you know, the kids, yeah, get a start at the end of the season and it's kind of.
McShay
Cool. It's good for him. And that's why they started him and not Philip Rivers. Nothing.
Mensch
Gain. I'm done ripping your picks. I'm, I'm over it right.
McShay
Now. There it is, the last look. If you're watching on YouTube or Spotify. Dante Moore won Mendoza 2. Jeremiah Love. Real rich at running, but I'm good with it. In Tennessee, Carnell Tate, I stand on that business there, the New York Giants. Then we've got Maui Noah, the first offensive lineman coming from Miami going to the Browns at 6. Washington takes David Bailey, top edge rusher in this class. Jordan Tyson, wide receiver will be a debate. Is it Carnell Tate? Is it Jordan Tyson. I think the injuries for Tyson that he's got to get a clean medical. He missed like 14 or so games. Yeah. During his career there was 14 of 38 games. Knee, collarbone, hamstring. That's going to be a deal as we get closer. Kenyon Sadiq. A little rich for Mensch. Mensch wanted Jeremiah Love down in Kansas City with the with Mahomes 2.0, whatever that looks like. Reuben Bain. Edge going to the Bengals. Give him the best defensive player. Doesn't matter who it is. Keldrick Falk. I'm not sold yet on Falk, but he's going to be in this range. Edge from Auburn, young, young man. One of the youngest in the draft. But my goodness, does he have a skill set that can be developed. Caleb Downs, you just mentioned going to Dallas at 12. The Rams with that pick from Atlanta a year ago in the trade. Spencer Fano, Utah offensive tackle. Plug him at the right tackle where he played in college. Sonny Styles, the linebacker from Ohio. The other linebacker from Ohio State going 14 to the Bucks. And then the jets with their traded pick for Sauce Gardner. Get gets Peter woods, defensive tackle from Clemson. I hope everyone enjoyed this. It's been a blast. Mock 1.0. Go to the McShay Report. Google it. McShay Report. Subscribe we'll be back Thursday and Friday. As I mentioned 10 times in the show because I'm just excited and Mensch, I gotta be honest with you. It was 5.
Mensch
Stars.
McShay
Nice. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + and present in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-78-9-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-87-7-ATE HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New.
Podcast: The McShay Show
Host: Todd McShay, with Steve Mensch
Episode: Mock Draft 1.0: The Raiders’ QB Decision, an RB in the Top Three, and More First-Round Predictions
Date: January 5, 2026
Todd McShay and Steve Mensch unveil their first 2026 NFL Mock Draft (Mock 1.0) moments after the regular NFL season ends and the top 16 picks are set. The discussion dives deep into their most surprising projections—including the Raiders’ quarterback conundrum, the possibility of a running back in the top three, debates about positional value, and the early themes shaping this draft class. They break down each of their top 15 picks with a mix of analysis, inside info, and classic McShay-Mensch banter.
(00:05–05:44)
(05:46–18:15)
(18:15–26:47)
(27:06–33:12)
(33:12–43:33)
(43:33–49:59)
On Dante Moore vs. Mendoza:
On the Jets’ QB struggles and risk:
On positional value in this draft:
On a running back at #3:
On the entire class:
The episode ends with a reminder that earlier picks, especially in this uniquely-shaped draft class, spark unusually tough debates. McShay promises further updates as more information and declarations come in, teasing deeper dives into specific team/agent mechanics and player fits in future shows—and reminding listeners to join their live reactions after the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Listen if you enjoy: Draft strategy, scouting philosophy, insider NFL/front office context, debates on positional value, and getting ahead on the 2026 rookie class.
Stay tuned for: Mock Draft 2.0, evolving positional analysis, and live playoff coverage.