The McShay Show — Mock Draft 1.0: Big Surprises at the Top, Quarterback Decisions, and First-Round Storylines
Podcast: The McShay Show
Host: Todd McShay, with Steve Mensch
Episode: Mock Draft 1.0: The Raiders’ QB Decision, an RB in the Top Three, and More First-Round Predictions
Date: January 5, 2026
Episode Overview
Todd McShay and Steve Mensch unveil their first 2026 NFL Mock Draft (Mock 1.0) moments after the regular NFL season ends and the top 16 picks are set. The discussion dives deep into their most surprising projections—including the Raiders’ quarterback conundrum, the possibility of a running back in the top three, debates about positional value, and the early themes shaping this draft class. They break down each of their top 15 picks with a mix of analysis, inside info, and classic McShay-Mensch banter.
Main Themes
- Unusual Top-of-the-Draft Questions: The draft order shakeup and an underwhelming "elite" tier leads to bold moves and heated discussion, especially about quarterbacks and top prospects.
- Quarterback Debate: Who should go #1 overall—Dante Moore or Heisman-winning Fernando Mendoza?
- Mock Draft Philosophy: Best player available vs. positional value, especially with RB and TE prospects.
- Early Positional Trends: Potential runs on tackles, linebackers, and non-premium positions, given the unique shape of this class.
Key Discussion Points
1. Mock Draft Process and Context
(00:05–05:44)
- The timing of the first real Mock Draft after the draft order is officially set: "I always felt like this was the right time to do it. This is the first time that we officially have the draft order set." (McShay, 00:22)
- A technical note: The Ravens’ pick moved after they lost, leading to an extra (bonus) pick in this episode.
2. Big Shocks at the Top: Raiders and Jets (QB at 1 & 2)
(05:46–18:15)
- The Raiders land the #1 overall pick—contrary to prior expectations (05:46).
- McShay’s major decision: Dante Moore (Oregon) as his #1 pick for the Raiders, even though Heisman-winning Mendoza is considered more "pro-ready".
- Mensch and McShay dissect both QBs’ games and readiness, making nuanced cases for each.
- Notable insight into the support structure and developmental urgency of the Raiders' organization with Tom Brady involved:
- “If Brady’s big mission football-wise post career is to help young quarterbacks... give me the 10-year career of the best pure passer in college football… that’s Dante Moore.” (McShay, 13:45)
- “If I had to go win a game in the NFL... I would take Mendoza right now.” (McShay, 10:25)
3. Landing Spots, QB Class Strength, and Franchise Fit
(18:15–26:47)
- If Moore stays in school, the Jets are in a "tough spot" at #2: “It's a thin quarterback class.” (Mensch, 18:17)
- Deep dive into why the Jets are viewed as a challenging destination for QBs—ownership dysfunction, repeated failure with young quarterbacks, and how it could impact agent/player decisions:
- “There’s not one single player in this entire draft... wants to be a New York Jet.” (McShay, 20:41)
- “All three [Jets QBs who failed] were talented. They were all young and inexperienced.” (McShay, 24:38)
- Observations about NIL, player empowerment, and the evolving draft/college landscape.
4. Pick #3 Stunner: RB Jeremiah Love to Arizona
(27:06–33:12)
- McShay reluctantly sticks to his mock and sends Notre Dame RB Jeremiah Love to Arizona at #3, given no QBs left and problematic tackle fits.
- Mensch argues for a tackle (Spencer Fano or similar) but McShay leans on Love’s rare individual talent and the absence of a true elite OT prospect.
- “I don’t want to take a running back... but yeah, they need an offensive tackle... Am I taking a guy who might be a guard at 3? How is that any different from taking a running back?” (McShay, 30:17)
5. Position Runs, Value, and Mock Pick Reactions
(33:12–43:33)
- Full rundown of picks 4–10 with hot takes from Mensch on value and fit.
- Mensch is especially critical of Carnell Tate to the Giants at #5, citing their defensive needs. (39:06)
- On Chiefs taking TE Kenyon Sadiq at #9: “That would be the earliest a tight end has gone since Pitts... but this year’s draft's going to be funky. Our best players are running backs and tight ends and safeties and guards.” (McShay, 42:34)
- Mutual agreement this is an odd class: “A lot of starters, not a lot of pro bowlers in this draft is maybe the way to look at it.” (Mensch, 42:00)
6. Rounding Out the Top 15: Surprises and Fits
(43:33–49:59)
- Miami at #11: Keldrick Falk (edge, Auburn), a toolsy, raw, but super young prospect.
- Dallas at #12: Caleb Downs (S), “a leader, glue guy, always in the right position” — McShay loves the fit.
- Rams at #13: Spencer Fano, OT from Utah.
- Tampa Bay at #14: Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State), notable for two off-ball linebackers in the top 15—a rarity.
- Cleveland at #15: Peter Woods (DT, Clemson); McShay admits he’s too low, expects him to rise in later iterations.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
On Dante Moore vs. Mendoza:
- “If you told me... you’d have a year like Patrick Mahomes had... and you gave me the 10-year career of the best pure passer in all of college football... that's Dante Moore." – McShay, 13:45
- "If I had to win a game right now, I'd take Mendoza. But long term, I'm taking Moore." – Mensch, 17:26
On the Jets’ QB struggles and risk:
- “There’s not one single player in this entire draft, unless they grew up a Jets fan or have some kind of family tie, wants to be a New York Jet.” – McShay, 21:36
- “All three [Jets QBs who failed] were talented. They were all young and inexperienced.” – McShay, 24:38
On positional value in this draft:
- “This year’s draft's going to be funky. Our best players are running backs and tight ends and safeties and guards.” – McShay, 42:34
On a running back at #3:
- “Even for me. Even for me. I’m looking, saying, oh, I didn’t even go back... there’s just not many in the top five ever.” – Mensch, 32:31
On the entire class:
- “A lot of starters, not a lot of pro bowlers.” – Mensch, 42:00
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:05–05:44: Episode and mock draft order explanation; brief digression on publishing timing and technical notes.
- 05:46–18:15: Raiders and Jets at 1–2, QB dilemma explored—Dante Moore vs. Mendoza.
- 18:15–26:47: Franchise fit for QBs; Mendoza’s maturity, Jets’ pitfalls, agent leverage and power.
- 27:06–33:12: Cardinals’ #3 pick debate; RB Jeremiah Love over a tackle.
- 33:12–43:33: Picks 4–10, positional runs, Mensch’s critiques (notably Carnell Tate to Giants, Sadiq to Chiefs).
- 43:33–49:59: Picks 11–15 breakdown; linebacker and safety run; future risers.
- Throughout: McShay and Mensch’s banter, quick historical comps, and meta-commentary on how this draft feels different from recent years.
Quick Reference: Top 15 Mock Picks (in order, as discussed)
- Las Vegas Raiders: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
- New York Jets: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
- Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiah Love, RB, Notre Dame
- Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
- New York Giants: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
- Cleveland Browns: Francis Maui Noah, OT, Miami
- Washington: David Bailey, EDGE
- New Orleans Saints: Jordan Tyson, WR
- Kansas City Chiefs: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
- Cincinnati Bengals: Reuben Bain, EDGE
- Miami Dolphins: Keldrick Falk, EDGE, Auburn
- Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Downs, S
- Los Angeles Rams: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
- Cleveland (via trade): Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
Closing Notes
The episode ends with a reminder that earlier picks, especially in this uniquely-shaped draft class, spark unusually tough debates. McShay promises further updates as more information and declarations come in, teasing deeper dives into specific team/agent mechanics and player fits in future shows—and reminding listeners to join their live reactions after the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Listen if you enjoy: Draft strategy, scouting philosophy, insider NFL/front office context, debates on positional value, and getting ahead on the 2026 rookie class.
Stay tuned for: Mock Draft 2.0, evolving positional analysis, and live playoff coverage.