The McShay Show — Mock Draft 2.0 Episode Summary

Podcast: The McShay Show
Host: Todd “Steve” McShay
Co-host: Mitch Tucker
Episode Title: Mock Draft 2.0: Mendoza Trade Offers, Reese’s NFL Comp, and More Round 1 Takeaways
Date: February 9, 2026

Main Theme / Purpose

Todd McShay and Mitch Tucker unveil and dissect “Mock Draft 2.0,” focusing on the first 16 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft. The episode dives deep into prospect analysis, team needs, trade possibilities (especially with the #1 pick), and tactical shifts driven by lessons from last year’s draft and the upcoming, highly rated 2027 class. The hosts compare prospects, debate team strategies, and sprinkle the show with their banter, memorable analogies, and the newly-named “Mentions” segment, a rapid-fire Q&A mix of personal and football topics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Significance of Draft Class Context

• The 2026 draft lacks elite “can’t-miss” prospects, especially at QB and edge, compared to previous years.
• The 2027 class is already touted as potentially historic, impacting how teams value future picks and whether they might trade down or stockpile.

“This draft is actually better than people want to give it credit for because the only thing people can focus on is the quarterbacks aren’t great and the top 10 picks are not at positions of, you know, traditional value.”
— Steve McShay (09:50)

2. Pick-by-Pick Breakdown — First 10 Picks

(Detailed picks and insightful notes, including relevant quotes)

1. Las Vegas Raiders — Fernando Mendoza, QB

• Why Mendoza? Not as physically gifted as previous first-overall QBs but praised for “headiness,” obsessive work ethic, and mental processing.
• Tom Brady's Influence: Brady’s role in Raiders’ front office brings an affinity for “football nerd” QBs, likened to his own playing style.
• Trade Scenarios: Hosts debate if anyone will offer the kind of massive haul it would take for Vegas to pass on Mendoza.
  • Both suggest unless you're 100% convinced he’s “your guy,” consider trade offers—especially with 2027’s loaded QB class looming.
  • Minimum cost for a trade (especially from teams like the Jets or Browns): Current year’s first, a high first next year, plus more.
• Caution Against Giving Up 2027 Picks: McShay is adamant teams shouldn't mortgage the future for a non-generational QB.

“If a team trades a 2027 draft capital—first round pick in that class next year—for anything in this class, I will walk out…”
— Steve McShay (12:37)

2. New York Jets — Arvell Reese, LB/Edge

• Comparison: Draws Micah Parsons comps; could start as off-ball but projects as hybrid or future edge rusher.
• Jets Need Best Player Available: Reese will likely be a top-3 player on McShay’s board. Defensive focus is logical given roster need.

“I think the arc for Arvell Reese is going to be similar to that of Micah Parsons.”
— Steve McShay (12:52)

3. Arizona Cardinals — Francis Mauigoa, OT

• Reasoning: With both starting OTs set for free agency and no viable QB at 3, offensive line is priority.
• Player Debate: McShay prefers Mauigoa over Fano (Utah) for his size and system fit; Tucker's on board.
• Draft Value: Hard to pass on “good tackle” for RB or non-premium position, especially for rebuilding teams.

4. Tennessee Titans — David Bailey, Edge

• Not Expected Position by many, but Titans need pass rush help.
• Physical Tools/Questions: At 247 lbs in preseason—lighter than typical—but he’s proven against top competition.
• New Defensive Staff: With Rob Saleh as the new HC, investing in his preferred side of the ball makes sense.

5. New York Giants — Caleb Downs, S

• Surprise Selection: Passing on WR for a safety, given WR depth and no top-tier DT at this spot.
• “Bar Setter” and Leader: Cited need for higher standards and accountability.
• Analogies: Compared to Kyle Hamilton as a rare, worthy top-5 safety; not a consensus move, but justifiable.

6. Cleveland Browns — Spencer Fano, OT (Utah)

7. Washington Commanders — Rueben Bain, Edge (Miami)

8. New Orleans Saints — Jeremiah Love, RB

• Loomis’s RB History: “Hasn’t drafted one early in 15 years but definitely has precedent.”
• Supporting Young QB: Love paired with Tyler Shuck as a dynamic weapon.

9. Kansas City Chiefs — Carnell Tate, WR

• Need for Reliable WR: Mahomes needs “oatmeal” (consistent, dependable) receivers, especially after injury.
• Alternative Consideration: Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon TE) could also be a fit.

10. Cincinnati Bengals — Mansoor Delane, CB (LSU)

• Smartest CB in Draft: May not test elite physically, but renowned for football IQ and anticipation.
• Contrast: J. McCoy (Tennessee), more physically gifted but coming off injury.

3. Picks 11–16 and Noteworthy Debates

11. Miami Dolphins — J. McCoy, CB (Tennessee)

• Pro-ready, medical checks pending due to missed year.

12. Dallas Cowboys — Akheem Mesidor, Edge (Miami)

• Underrated Prospect: “I just don’t understand that… this kid might not be a first round pick.” — Tucker (41:09)
• Loves his violent hands and interior pressure ability.

13. LA Rams — Ty Simpson, QB (Alabama)

• Polarizing Pick! Only 15 career starts, but strong Bama pedigree and a “coach’s son” who could thrive if allowed to learn behind Stafford.
• McShay admits: This may not be the actual pick, but warns that late-riser QBs often climb by draft day due to team desperation.

“Everything in history tells us this doesn’t end well for Ty Simpson. But maybe it ends well because he was at Alabama for four years… Maybe it does work…”
— Steve McShay (44:41)

14. Baltimore Ravens — Vega Ioane, G (Penn State)

• Interior line a need given free agent issues and poor guard play.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Sonny Styles, LB

• Physical, athletic, has “Michael Jordan” moments on high school basketball film.
• Perfect value here; not quite top 5 but tremendous upside.

16. Minnesota Vikings — Makai Lemon, WR

• 2026 receiver tier crowded, but consensus that several will go top 20 based on need and talent.

4. Draft Trends & Strategic Debate

• Lots of O-Linemen: Similar to previous year, expect 6+ tackles/guards in 1st round; “go for the double, not swing for fences.”
• Trading Up/Back: Teams may try to move back more than up unless there’s a run at key spots (OT, Edge).
• Positional Value Adjusts: With no “can’t miss” QBs, some “non-premium” positions go higher than usual (safety, RB).

5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On 2027 Draft Capital:

  “Straight to the psych ward if you’re willing to give up 2027 compensation for 2026.”
  — Steve McShay (10:48)

• Ty Simpson, McVay & Redshirt Plan:

  “It gives you a full year to develop that partnership and also for that young quarterback to watch Stafford and how he operates in that partnership with McVay...”
  — Steve McShay (45:25)

• Giants' Selection Philosophy:

  “Where’s the sheriff in town? Caleb Downs is a sheriff. Bar set higher, standard is different, accountability.”
  — Steve McShay (33:05)

• Banter about Pet Peeves:

  “My number one pet peeve is when someone bum rushes an elevator… it’s because I lived in Boston, New York my entire adult life.”
  — Steve McShay (60:23)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:06–04:30| Super Bowl wrap, mock draft intro, Mendoza top pick, Raiders trade scenarios | | 06:45–12:00| Deep dive on Mendoza trade value, future draft capital philosophy | | 12:52–14:50| Jets’ pick: Arvell Reese, linebacker-to-edge projection, positional value | | 15:00–18:15| Cardinals’ OT need, Mauigoa vs Fano debate | | 19:54–20:15| O-line draft trends versus previous classes | | 21:07–25:20| Mock picks 4–10 recap, Saints’ RB history, Chiefs WR needs | | 25:20–27:07| Bengals cornerback pick; medical questions on top CB prospects | | 27:11–31:20| Titans at 4 (Bailey), defensive philosophy, edge rusher size analysis | | 31:20–34:48| Giants’ pick, run defense vs. safety, top 5 safety debate | | 35:20–43:11| Picks 11–16 rundown, WR tiers, Messador praise, debates at G/C | | 43:46–48:54| Ty Simpson to Rams, QB market realities, developing behind Stafford | | 51:59–63:33| “Mentions” segment — personal Q&A, rapid-fire draft takes | | 62:45–63:33| Hardest position to evaluate: QB and corner debates |

“Mentions” Segment Highlights (51:59–63:33)

• Personal Q&A: Favorite coffee orders (French toast latte; almond milk), breakfast preference (Benedict/“Benny guy”), and pet peeves.
• Draft Quick Hits:
  • Player to watch at combine: Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon TE)
  • Hardest evaluations: QB and corner, given college scheme variability.
  • Under-the-radar/Day 2 o-line: Sam Hecht (Kansas State C).

Takeaways & Final Thoughts

1. Cautious Approach with High Picks: Play the value game, particularly with future-loaded classes and a lack of generational QBs. Don’t mortgage the future unless you’re absolutely sure.
2. O-Linemen and “Safe” Picks Will Dominate: Expect a “double, not home run” approach—get starters, especially up front.
3. QB Movement Still Inevitable: Even in weak classes, teams will get aggressive if they sense a fit (e.g., Ty Simpson’s rise mirrors past draft trends).
4. Team-Building Lessons: Defensive leaders, culture-setters, and account-ability types are at a premium, especially for struggling franchises.
5. Podcast Energy: Blends sharp football analysis, historical recall, and light friendship banter, making for a lively, insight-rich mid-offseason listen.

Full details, player breakdowns, and the rest of the first round are available in Todd’s newsletter, The McShay Report.

Notable Quotes Recap

• “If a team trades a 2027 draft capital—first round pick in that class next year—for anything in this class, I will walk out…” (12:37, McShay)
• “Caleb Downs is a sheriff. Bar set higher, standard is different, accountability.” (33:05, McShay)
• “I just don’t understand that… this kid might not be a first round pick.” (41:09, Tucker on Mesidor)
• “Everything in history tells us this doesn’t end well for Ty Simpson. But maybe it ends well…” (44:41, McShay)

Listen for:

• Draft philosophy debates
• Player comparisons (Parsons/Reese, Hamilton/Downs)
• Best food take (crab cake eggs benedict!)
• The unique blend of high-level football analysis and playful podcast chemistry

(This summary covers key content and insights, skipping ad reads and intro/outro segments.)