The McShay Show (The Ringer)

Episode: Our Top 150 Big Board Risers and Fallers. Plus, Don’t Be Surprised If …

Date: April 6, 2026
Hosts: Todd McShay & Steve Muench

Episode Overview

In this episode, Todd McShay and Steve Muench unveil their updated Top 150 NFL Draft Big Board, discuss notable risers and fallers, and dive into which players—at select positions—are getting late momentum or sliding as the NFL Draft approaches. They also debate the intricacies of positional value, the process of ranking prospects, and offer "Don't Be Surprised If..." predictions. The tone is fun, highly informed, sometimes combative, but always focused on giving listeners deep insight into NFL prospect evaluation and the latest draft buzz.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Table: The Updated Big Board

• [00:06] McShay opens by highlighting the recent release of their Top 150, which now features 100 full evaluations.
• [02:27] McShay emphasizes ongoing tweaks: recent pro days, new character intel, and durability issues are all causing late changes.
• Noted prospects moving: Zion Young (Edge) moving up (will be top 25), Avion Terrell (CB) likely dropping due to slow 40 time and injury concerns.

2. Defining Elite Grades: First- and Second-Round Locks

• [03:10] McShay lists 17 “first-round locks” in any draft, e.g. Jeremiah Love (RB, Notre Dame), Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State), Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana), Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State), and more.
• [06:15] 14 additional "fringe" first-rounders (would go 28-36 in great classes).
• [09:00] 16 prospects graded as definite second-rounders.

“That gives you 47 guys [who] would go in the first or second round, no matter how strong that position was in any NFL draft. It’s not a bad number. It’s kind of right down the middle.” – McShay ([09:21])

3. Debating Individual Player Evaluations

• Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon): The debate whether he's a first-round lock; McShay sees him as borderline, Muench argues he’s clearly in top tier despite size concerns.
• Steve on Sadiq: “He checks so many boxes. Do I wish he was 5-10 pounds heavier? Yeah. But… the talent is through the roof.” ([12:23])

4. Offensive Tackle & Position Clusters

• [15:31] Major movement at OT:

  • Blake Miller: 23 → 13
  • Kaden Proctor: 31 → 17
  • Caleb Lomu: 25 → 20
  • Max Iannotra: 38 → 24

• Muench acknowledges it makes sense for late movement due to positional value, but still feels some are too high—especially Proctor.

  “I’m going to go back and watch every single snap of [Proctor]...I want to make sure I’m buttoned up there.” – Muench ([16:41])

• McShay explains the internal “tug of war” between personal grades and league consensus, emphasizing how positional runs shape the process.

5. Wide Receiver Tiers and Notable Fallers

• Omar Cooper Jr. dropped from 17 → 30, Antonio Williams 39 → 55, Jeremy Bernard 50 → 78.

  • McShay re-watched Bernard and revised him down, seeing him more as a reliable #3 in the NFL.

  “I love the detail… the consistency… but he’s not like, you know… he’s a really good number three.” – McShay ([28:11])

• WR group: Carnell Tate is a “true first” in any draft, but others slide due to lack of elite traits (size, speed, positional value).

• Muench contends Bernard should be WR6 in this class, over Concepcion or Brazel.

6. Defensive Backs and Cluster Analysis

• Trade and Stukes (S, Arizona): Pushed just outside the top 50, but Muench thinks he’ll land in the top 50 by draft day ([32:22]).

• McShay explains difficulty with evaluative “Mendoza lines” like the Top 50—tough calls as the cluster grades are tight.

• Colton Hood, Malachi Lawrence, C.J. Allen, Anthony Hill: prospects where grades are splitting scouts and could slide or rise depending on team need and late intel.

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

On Board Accuracy and Bragging Rights

• [03:10] McShay:

“These will not move… last five years, no one has been more accurate in the top 186 out of 100 is what I've averaged—for the last five years. So even… I promise you it’s the most accurate board that’s out there.”

On Twitter vs. Real Intel

• McShay:

“There’s so much dumb information out there that’s just not accurate and doesn’t reflect what the tape tells us… or what NFL teams are telling us.” ([12:04])

Off-Color Running Jokes & Chemistry

• [18:29] The “Coke can” airplane debate and McShay’s Pepsi love draw playful banter.

  Muench: “That might be your worst take of the whole show.”
  McShay: “I’m Diet Pepsi all through and through. Lemon. Perfect.”
  Muench: “Too sweet.”

On Offensive Tackle Runs and Positional Value

• McShay:

“That’s driving the bus, buddy… There’s going to be two positional runs in the first round: offensive tackle and edge.” ([20:13], [22:23])

On Cornerback Debate: Jermad McCoy vs. Monsour Delane

• McShay argues McCoy is “best pure man-to-man cover” corner, while Delane is more complete ([47:32]-[48:22]).
• Muench:

“Delane is twice the corner McCoy is, in my mind.” ([47:35])

“Don’t Be Surprised If…” Segment

• [52:02]

  • Muench: “Don’t be surprised if Florida corner Devin Moore turns into one of the steals in this draft…”
  • McShay: “If you hit on him in round three… yeah, you got a big physical corner who can actually run...force multiplier in the locker room.”

• [56:00]

  • McShay: “Don’t be surprised if Sonny Styles and Carnell Tate both go in the top five…It’s different when you sit back and listen to people in the league. … There’s no yeah, buts.”

Noteworthy Timestamps

• [02:27-09:21] — Laying out elite grades, defining “true” first and second-rounders
• [15:12-23:22] — Offensive tackle movement and cluster philosophy
• [25:35-31:56] — Deep dive on wide receiver movement and Jeremy Bernard controversy
• [32:22-36:33] — Debate on defensive backs and just-missed-the-cut prospects
• [39:21-47:02] — Jermad McCoy’s injury, business decisions, and agent impact
• [52:02-55:44] — “Don’t Be Surprised If…” segment: deep sleeper and bold top-5 predictions
• [56:00-63:55] — Ohio State prospects Sonny Styles, Carnell Tate, and draft “landscape shaking” implications

Final Takeaways

• Top Risers: OTs (Miller, Proctor, Lomu, Iannotra), CB Colton Hood, S D’Angelo Pons, RB Jeremiah Love, WR Carnell Tate (now considered by McShay as a genuine top-5 possibility).
• Top Fallers: WRs (Omar Cooper Jr., Antonio Williams, Jeremy Bernard), S Avion Terrell (due to bad 40), some fringy linebackers and edges split among NFL circles.
• Draft Trends: Expect early runs at OT and Edge, league consensus heavily influences certain cluster movements, while “position you can get later” narrative is pushing receivers and interior linemen down.
• Debate Points: Real-time disagreements (McCoy vs. Delane; Sadiq’s draft ceiling); how to balance tape, traits, analytics, and league conversations.
• Under-the-Radar Names: Devin Moore (CB, Florida), D’Angelo Pons (DB), Trade and Stukes (S, Arizona).

Conclusion

This episode peels back the curtain on the ongoing, nuanced process of draft evaluations, with McShay and Muench offering listeners not just rankings, but street-level insight into NFL front office conversations, how personal grades meet league reality, and why certain prospects will rise or fall in the final days before the NFL draft. The chemistry oscillates between friendly banter and sharp disagreement, making for a dynamic, info-rich listen.

For the most detailed boards and evaluations, listeners are encouraged to check out the full Top 150 and upcoming 4.0 mock draft at theringer.com/mcshay.