The McShay Show: Playoff QB Confidence Rankings Episode Summary

Episode Title: Playoff QB Confidence Rankings: Dillon Gabriel the Consensus No. 1, Texas’s Dynamic Duo, and Carson Beck Injury Concerns
Release Date: December 10, 2024
Host/Author: The Ringer’s Todd McShay

Introduction

In this episode of The McShay Show, Todd McShay delves into the intricacies of quarterback confidence rankings as the College Football Playoff (CFP) approaches. Featuring a comprehensive analysis of the top 12 quarterbacks, Todd explores their strengths, weaknesses, and overall impact on their respective teams' playoff prospects. Additionally, the episode addresses critical concerns surrounding Carson Beck's injury and the dynamic quarterback duo from Texas.

Methodology and Ranking Process

Todd outlines his systematic approach to ranking quarterbacks, emphasizing the importance of assessing each QB's ability to elevate their team, perform under pressure, and minimize liabilities such as turnovers. Collaborating with his colleague Mensch, Todd evaluates a 94-page document detailing each quarterback's performance metrics, enabling a balanced and informed ranking process.

Todd (02:15): "When making a run at the college Football national championship, you've got to have the correct arm, if you will."

Detailed Quarterback Rankings

12. Maddox Madsen (Boise State) Madsen, affectionately known as "Mad Dog," thrives on play action and effectively leverages his mobility outside the pocket. Despite his impressive performance, Todd notes limitations in size and arm strength, suggesting Boise State's playoff berth is more a testament to their robust defense and strong run game than solely Madsen's prowess.

Todd (08:02): "They have a great defense and he stepped up in moments. He's been big in big moments."

11. Sam Levitt (Arizona State) Levitt is commended for his arm strength and mobility, adding significant value to Arizona State's offense. However, concerns remain regarding the team's reliance on their running game and the absence of key wide receivers, which could impact Levitt's effectiveness in high-stakes playoff scenarios.

B (09:03): "He's a young kid who's developed and I think gotten better seemingly every week."

10. Curtis Rourke (Indiana) Rourke boasts high efficiency and touchdown-to-interception ratios but faces criticism for his lack of mobility. Todd worries about Indiana's ability to protect Rourke effectively against formidable defenses, potentially limiting his impact in the playoffs.

Todd (18:03): "His lack of mobility paired with the struggles that Indiana is capable of having in this College Football Playoff first game against Notre Dame."

9. Carson Beck / Gunner Stockton (Georgia) The uncertainty surrounding Carson Beck's elbow injury places the Georgia quarterback situation at a precarious ninth spot. Todd highlights Beck's potential to significantly elevate Georgia if healthy, but questions remain about his reliability and Stockton's readiness as a backup.

Todd (19:25): "There's too much uncertainty. There's just too much uncertainty."

8. Riley Leonard (Notre Dame) Leonard's dual-threat capability as a passer and runner makes him a valuable asset for Notre Dame. Todd praises his competitiveness and ability to exploit defenses but notes weaknesses in the passing game, particularly against strong defensive teams.

Riley Leonard (22:31): "He's very low on the list of guys."

7. Kevin Jennings (SMU) Jennings, despite being a relatively inexperienced starter, showcases a resilient and aggressive playing style. Todd values his ability to make pivotal plays and his importance to SMU's success, though concerns about his tenure against tougher defenses persist.

Todd (35:33): "He's got to have a chance to improve his stock."

6. Will Howard (Ohio State) Howard embodies toughness and competitiveness but suffers from inconsistency, particularly in high-pressure games. Todd appreciates his physicality and leadership but remains cautious about his performance against elite defenses.

B (45:01): "I have some current concerns about how this came down this year."

5. Drew Aller (Penn State) Aller is lauded for his arm strength and significant improvement over the season. Despite limited receiving options, his ability to make decisive plays under pressure earns him the fifth spot. Todd emphasizes his growth and the trust Penn State places in his capabilities.

Todd (55:10): "He really can carry that Tennessee team."

4. Cade Klubnick (Clemson) Klubnick has shown notable improvement, particularly in his poise and decision-making within the pocket. Todd credits his enhanced performance to Clemson's offensive strategies and his role as a central figure in their success, especially during critical moments.

Todd (59:43): "If he's going to have ice water in his veins, making plays when it matters the most."

3. Nico Emilyava (Tennessee) Emilyava is recognized for his remarkable talent and upside. Despite early season struggles, his recent performances demonstrate his ability to lead and make impactful plays, positioning him as a top contender in the rankings.

Todd (62:30): "If he gets hot in that game, I think he could carry that Tennessee team."

2. Arch Manning / Quinn Ewers (Texas) Texas's quarterback duo is celebrated for their dynamic play styles and complementary skills. Manning's versatility and Ewers's experience provide Texas with a formidable offensive arsenal, making them the second most confident rankings heading into the playoffs.

Todd (77:56): "He's the Terminator. He's going to find the open guy every time."

1. Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) Dillon Gabriel secures the top spot as the consensus No. 1 quarterback. Todd highlights Gabriel's exceptional decision-making, quick release, and ability to execute under pressure. Despite physical limitations, Gabriel's performance-driven approach and leadership make him the most confident quarterback heading into the CFP.

Todd (75:40): "Everything is just so slow and simple and I don't need to be the guy who throws it 80 yards downfield because I know I can hit Tez Johnson on this much easier route."

Key Discussions and Debates

Throughout the episode, Todd and his colleague Mensch engage in spirited debates over specific rankings, notably the positions of Riley Leonard versus Will Howard. Mensch advocates for Leonard's higher placement based on his dual-threat capabilities and improved passing game, while Todd remains cautious due to Leonard's performance against tougher defenses.

Mensch (27:26): "I just think because of his strength, his ability to make plays with his feet, he's a great fit for what they do."

Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding Carson Beck's injury leads to significant discussion, reflecting on how his health could dramatically alter Georgia's playoff trajectory.

Todd (20:54): "Carson Beck's been up and down. But I can put him at number two."

Asked and Answered

In the latter part of the episode, Todd addresses listener questions, including:

1. Most Impactful Players on Draft Stock:
   Dylan Gabriel is identified as the quarterback with the most to gain, given his pivotal role in Oregon's successful offense.

   Todd (82:58): "I think Dylan Gabriel... he makes the offense operate because of one guy, and that's Dylan Gabriel."

2. Future of the College Football Playoff System:
   Todd expresses support for maintaining the 12-team format but acknowledges potential expansions. He criticizes the current seeding methodology, advocating for more accurate seeding based on team performance rather than automatic bids from non-Power 5 conferences.

   Todd (87:03): "We need to go seeding. There's no reason in the world that Arizona State should have a buy."

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Todd wraps up the episode by reiterating his confidence in Dillon Gabriel as the top quarterback and emphasizing the importance of assessing QBs beyond mere statistics. He underscores the evolving landscape of college football and the critical role quarterbacks play in leading their teams to the national championship.

Todd (89:42): "This is a hell of a stacked crowd at quarterback going into the College Football Playoff."

The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming shows focusing on NFL draft preparations and the anticipation of the forthcoming CFP games.

Notable Quotes

• Todd (08:02): "Madsen... it's clearly a lot of other areas are the reason why they're in this position. The College Football Playoff."
• B (09:03): "He may not win the game, but he's not going to lose it."
• Todd (22:31): "He's very low on the list of guys."
• Todd (35:33): "He's got to have a chance to improve his stock."
• B (45:01): "I have some current concerns about how this came down this year."
• Todd (55:10): "He really can carry that Tennessee team."
• Todd (75:40): "He's the Terminator. He's going to find the open guy every time."
• Mensch (27:26): "He's a great fit for what they do."
• Todd (82:58): "Dylan Gabriel... he makes the offense operate because of one guy."
• Todd (87:03): "We need to go seeding. There's no reason in the world that Arizona State should have a buy."

This comprehensive analysis by Todd McShay provides listeners with an in-depth understanding of the current quarterback landscape entering the College Football Playoff. By balancing statistical data with qualitative assessments, the episode offers valuable insights for fans and analysts alike.