The McShay Show: "Rough Draft 1.1: Todd’s 2026 QB Rankings (Midseason Edition)"

Date: October 16, 2025
Host: Todd McShay
Co-host: Steve (last name not provided)
Podcast: The Ringer

Episode Overview

In this flagship episode of "Rough Draft," Todd McShay unveils his first in-season 2026 NFL Draft quarterback rankings, sharing deep-dive evaluations, key insights from NFL front offices, and contextualizing each prospect’s development. The theme centers on how "game experience" is more critical than ever in the era of NIL and the transfer portal as McShay discusses each top QB's journey, strengths, weaknesses, and projection to the next level.

"The theme today for these quarterback rankings, and we're going to go through the top 10 and I'll mention some...is game experience."
— Todd McShay (08:02)

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New Quarterback Paradigm: Experience is King

(08:01 – 13:56)

• McShay dives deep into the importance of "number of starts," noting a dramatic trend: of 25 established NFL starters, only six had fewer than 30 college starts.
• Illustrates cautionary tales: Mark Sanchez, Mitch Trubisky, Trey Lance struggled in the NFL with minimal starts.
• Notes the anomaly/unicorns: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Drake May succeeded with fewer starts due to extraordinary talent.

“My point is 30’s now become kind of the number and maybe even growing…there were only six of the 25 (NFL QBs) that had fewer than 30 starts.”
— Todd McShay (10:30)

2. Todd McShay's 2026 NFL Draft QB Rankings (Midseason)

Top Tier: 1 & 1A

(13:58 – 25:32)

• Dante Moore (Oregon) – QB1 (11 career starts, 6'3", 206 lbs.)

  • "Best pure passer in college football."
  • "Smooth stroke...throws an incredibly catchable ball."
  • Oregon's supporting cast and offensive line have struggled, partially masking his true ability.
  • Room for growth: Needs to get quicker on some decisions.
  • Memorable moment: Poise in big games, e.g. Penn State whiteout victory.

• Lenora Sellers (South Carolina) – QB1A (18 career starts, 6'4", 237 lbs. approx.)

  • Similar early-career arc to Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen/Jalen Hurts.
  • "Uniquely gifted talent at the quarterback position. He makes plays and throws...that nobody else in this class can execute."
  • Marked growth in poise, pocket progression, and mechanics.
  • Key quote:

    “I think he’s more advanced as a passer than Lamar Jackson…than Jalen Hurts, when both of them were entering the NFL draft”
    — Todd McShay (24:16)

  • Steve agrees Sellers is his personal QB1.

The Next Group

• Ty Simpson (Alabama) – #3 (6 career starts, 6'2", 208 lbs.)
  (28:08 – 33:48)

  • "Stands out for mental processing, instincts, and urgency—surprisingly poised for his inexperience."
  • "He takes the fight to you defensively."
  • McShay draws favorable comparison to Baker Mayfield and highlights Simpson’s confidence and quick mental transitions.

• Fernando Mendoza (Cal) – #4 (25 starts, 6'5", 225 lbs.)
  (33:49 – 38:55)

  • Prototypical tools: Size, arm, movement; strong RPO (Run-Pass Option) ability.
  • "Presents...the opportunity to have a quarterback that challenges you defensively more than most."
  • Still building consistency, especially on intermediate throws.

• Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) – #5 (20 starts, 6’0”, 204 lbs.)
  (42:41 – 50:13)

  • "Best pre-snap processor in college football. Deadly accurate at times when he's in rhythm."
  • "Spitting image of Baker Mayfield... but without the same arm strength."
  • Recent oblique/stomach muscle injury impacted performance; tape shows arm strength returning after bye week.
  • Criticized for carelessness:

    "My man is careless with the football...starts to do that thing where...now we're slinging it and everything's working and all of a sudden it's not."
    — Steve (49:44)

Rounding Out the Top 10

(54:01 – 61:29)

• 6. John Matier (Oklahoma) – 17 starts

  • Gunslinger, aggressive; durability and decision-making under scrutiny.
  • Thumb injury has impacted recent play; six-game brutal stretch will define his draft fate.

• 7. Carson Beck (Miami) – 32 starts

  • Improved performance, especially against Miami; closely watched for growth back to top-tier status.

• 8. Cade Klubnik (Clemson) – 34 starts

  • Up-and-down year; has all the tools, but needs greater poise under pressure.

• 9. Sawyer Robertson (Texas Tech) – Starts not specified

  • “Hanging around the chicken coop”—underdog with upside, big game ahead.

• 10. Drew Aller (Penn State) – 35 starts

  • Evaluation complete due to season-ending injury; started strong but faded.

Honorable Mentions

• Names not exhaustively listed, but McShay teases ongoing movement and potential risers in the full McShay Report.

Notable Quotes & Insightful Moments

• On Letting Go as an Evaluator:

  "One of the hardest things as an evaluator to do is kind of let it go. Come to grips with what you saw in the summer isn't what you're seeing now. Let it go. You're not beholden to that."
  — Todd McShay (14:05)

• On Quarterbacks and the Transfer Portal/NIL:

  "It's a luxury now, Steve. It's a luxury that quarterbacks back in the day did not have."
  — Todd McShay (08:45)

• On Dante Moore’s resilience:

  "If Lenora Sellers and Dante Moore dropped into the 2026 NFL Draft tomorrow, they're not getting out of the top 10 picks, period."
  — Todd McShay (20:08)

• On the Importance of Game Experience for NFL Success:

  “This year’s class could be really good…or it could be another like last year. And if this year’s like last year, it means 2027 has got Dante Moore, Lenora Sellers, Ty Simpson, Arch Manning…”
  — Todd McShay (65:45)

Additional Segments

• Segment on Schedule Difficulty/Oklahoma’s John Matier:
  (56:26 – 60:51)
  McShay and Steve break down Matier’s intense upcoming schedule, which could swing his projection from first to second round.

  “No team in the country has a harder six pack of either opportunity or…that wagon that they roll out pre-game—I’ve seen that wagon flip over before and this season could take a real turn for the Sooners.”
  — Todd McShay (56:26)

• On Cade Klubnik’s Future: (61:32 – 64:43) Steve sees him as an early second-round flier given size, arm, experience, but McShay is more skeptical about long-term upside.

Key Timestamps

• 10:30 — McShay on importance of career starts
• 14:05 — On letting go as an evaluator
• 16:59 — Assessing challenges facing Dante Moore
• 20:08 — Moore & Sellers: future top 10 picks
• 23:59 — Sellers’ NFL arc compared to Lamar/Josh Allen/Hurts
• 32:33 — Ty Simpson's profile and NFL projection
• 42:41 — Mendoza’s RPO and field vision upside
• 44:16 — Nussmeier, injury details, and Baker Mayfield comparison
• 56:26 — John Matier’s brutal schedule
• 61:32 — Cade Klubnik: Early second-round outlook? Disagreement

Summary Table: McShay’s Top 10 QBs (Mid-Season 2025)

| Rank | Name | School | Career Starts | Highlights | McShay Notes | |------|-------------------|---------------|--------------|-----------------------------------------|---------------------------------------| | 1 | Dante Moore | Oregon | 11 | Best pure passer; smooth, catchable ball| Needs more experience, elite instincts| | 1A | Lenora Sellers | South Carolina| 18 | Dynamic arm/legs; big riser | Needs 1 more year, Lamar/Josh arc | | 3 | Ty Simpson | Alabama | 6 | Quick processor, urgent feet | Inexperience; advanced for # starts | | 4 | Fernando Mendoza | Cal | 25 | Prototypical build; RPO/arm strength | Needs intermediate consistency | | 5 | Garrett Nussmeier | LSU | 20 | Elite processor, accurate, swagger | Arm/injury concerns, reckless w/ ball | | 6 | John Matier | Oklahoma | 17 | Aggressive gunslinger, leader | Thumb/injury risk, tough schedule | | 7 | Carson Beck | Miami | 32 | Rising consistency, strong arm | Return to form, needs steady play | | 8 | Cade Klubnik | Clemson | 34 | Tools, experience, flashes | Needs composure, lower body strength | | 9 | Sawyer Robertson | Texas Tech | -- | Upside, underdog | Opportunity in big games | | 10 | Drew Aller | Penn State | 35 | Big frame, arm | Season-ending injury, evaluation done |

Closing Thoughts

Todd and Steve emphasize just how much this QB class could shift, with many potential early entrants possibly returning for 2027 due to NIL. The league’s needs and the prospects' decisions will shape not just the upcoming draft, but the NFL landscape for years.

"Who's coming, who's leaving...because this year's class could be like, really good... or it could be another like last year."
— Todd McShay (65:12)

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