Podcast Summary: The McShay Show

Episode: Rough Draft 1.2: Todd’s Midseason Big Board! Plus, Previewing Ole Miss–Oklahoma, Missouri–Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M–LSU
Date: October 23, 2025
Host: Todd McShay (with Steve)
Network: The Ringer

Overview

This episode marks the one-year anniversary of The McShay Show and features the much-anticipated release of Todd McShay’s initial 2026 NFL Draft Top 32 Big Board. Todd provides insights into his evaluation process, positional trends, and the prospects who've impressed him most so far. The episode then pivots to an in-depth debate segment, where Steve challenges Todd’s rankings in a lively “Too High, Too Low” game. Finally, the hosts break down and preview three key college football matchups: Ole Miss–Oklahoma, Missouri–Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M–LSU, focusing on the prospects to watch and NFL implications.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Releasing the Midseason Top 32 Big Board

• Context/Process:

  • This is Todd’s first Top 32 of the year, based primarily on tape study – “No durability and character concerns are involved. This is a tape based top 32.” (06:17)
  • Most prospects are already NIL millionaires, shifting pressures from coaches to families: “Now I’m dealing with parents who are pissed off because I’m telling them they should come back to school.” (06:53)

• Positional Strengths:

  • Wide receivers are exceptionally strong this year: “Eight wide receivers in the top 32. Absolutely did not expect that coming into the year.” (07:57)
  • Edge defenders remain a premium: “The edge class is outstanding again... I got seven guys in the top 32.” (08:19)
  • Four quarterbacks made the top 15, but all are underclassmen—a rarity and potential risk if they all return to school.

• Top-of-the-Board Dilemmas:

  • Debated safety Caleb Downs vs. edge rusher Reuben Bane for the #1 spot: “Do you go with the safety number one and Caleb Downs, or do you go with Ruben Bane, who's been probably the most dominant individual player in college football all year? That was a struggle for me.” (09:53)
  • Running backs and off-ball linebackers like Jeremiah Love and Arvell Reese rank surprisingly high, despite the NFL’s typical draft volatility for these positions.

2. Quarterback Evaluation & Debate

• Todd’s QB Rankings Shift:

  • Ty Simpson now sits as Todd’s #1 QB, overtaking Dante Moore and Lenora Sellers after a string of dominant games, most notably against Tennessee.
  • Todd stresses the importance of starts for QBs, referencing historical NFL data: “The vast majority of the 25 starters...had 36 starts, all but six of them.” (11:27)
  • Despite Simpson having only seven starts, Todd emphasizes intangible traits: “I'm coming to the realization this is just who he is...finding open receivers, just understanding the pocket...This guy’s doing it at a different level than anybody else and probably anybody else in the last couple years coming out for the NFL draft.” (13:07)

• Steve’s Counterpoint:

  • Draws Mac Jones comparison, concerned about historical risks of limited-start QBs, especially from programs stacked with talent:

    “All I hear about you is starts. So it should at least start...the Mac Jones story should scare the absolute out of you.” (19:32)

    • Also debates Lenora Sellers’ lower placement versus Ty Simpson, and whether Todd is holding true to his own stated principles.
    • Todd stands by his conviction:

      “I haven’t seen tape like this since Burrow.” (21:15)

• QB Futures:

  • Both agree that the top QBs (Simpson, Moore, Sellers, Mendoza) could all return to school, making 2026’s draft picture very volatile for GMs.

3. Wide Receiver & Offensive Tackle Evaluations

• Wide Receiver Rankings Debate:

  • Steve contests Todd’s high placement of USC’s Makai Lemon (#12), drawing parallels to 2024’s Jaylen Noel—another favorite of Todd’s but a third-round pick:

    “All I heard about last year was Jaylen Noel. Yeah. And so, so why wouldn’t you hear about. Why would you hear about Lemon? Not at 12.” (29:36)

  • Todd counters, defending Lemon’s versatility, but Steve still finds #12 "a little rich."
  • Steve prefers size and traits, highlighting Denzel Boston (6'4", 210), whom he has higher than Lemon, believing the league increasingly devalues sub-6’ receivers in the top half of the first round (33:02).

• Offensive Tackle Talk:

  • Alabama OT Kaden Proctor’s placement at #23 is critiqued by Steve, who notes his improvement and rare physical tools:

    “He’s 6'7”, 366...I think teams are gonna be like, why was there a sluggish start the season? Why weren’t you ready?...I would have him in the top 15 overall.” (39:01)

  • Todd accepts the argument, acknowledging traits sometimes outweigh inconsistent tape.

4. Rapid Round: Key College Matchups and Prospect Watch

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma

• QB Focus: John Matier (Oklahoma)
  • Struggled post-injury, with accuracy and movement issues in recent tape “He just doesn’t look like himself...the missed throws were concerning.” (48:04)
  • This game is seen as a potential turning point for both Matier’s draft prospects and OU’s season.

Missouri vs. Vanderbilt

• QB Spotlight: Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt)
  • Electric college player, but seen as a late-round NFL prospect at best:

    “I think he’s a late round guy at best. I don’t think, I think there’s a good chance he doesn’t get drafted and gets a chance in a camp.” (53:13)

  • McShay reports some NFL interest in moving him to a different position (possibly RB or slot WR) due to his athleticism—compared loosely to Julian Edelman or Joshua Cribbs (54:34).

Texas A&M vs. LSU

• QB Conversation: Nussmeier (A&M)
  • Dealing with constant pressure and a struggling O-line:

    “When you're getting hit like that...It’s just really had an impact on him, I think.” (64:33)

  • Todd picks LSU to win in an upset at home, citing the unpredictable “Saturday night in Baton Rouge” atmosphere.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Todd on comfort with early Big Board:

  "No durability and character concerns are involved. This is a tape based top 32. Unfortunately, as we get closer...there’s all sorts of character information and misinformation." (06:17)

• On wide receiver depth:

  "If you think this year’s class is good, 2027 is going to be epic, crazy." (08:06)

• Steve, on the risk with Ty Simpson:

  "The Mac Jones story should scare the absolute out of you. And you’re lying if it doesn’t." (19:38)

• Todd, about Ty Simpson’s upside:

  "I haven’t seen tape like this since Burrow." (21:15)

• On the wide receiver archetype in the league:

  "The top five receivers in the league...Jackson Smith-Njigba, Jamar Chase, Puka Nacua, George Pickens...Amon-Ra St. Brown. Now, 12 seems a little early for that kind of body type [like Lemon]." (33:02)

• On Diego Pavia’s NFL position:

  "There is a feeling among scouts like wouldn’t mind trying them at a different position." (54:42)

• Steve on Nussmeier’s struggles:

  "I think the physical mental toll is really starting to take effect with him. I don’t think he’ll ever quit. But man, it’s, it’s been a tough year." (64:33)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Midseason Big Board Philosophy & Reveal: 05:17–12:32
• Quarterbacks Debate (Ty Simpson, Moore, Sellers, Starts): 12:32–25:35
• Wide Receiver/Traits vs. Production (Lemon, Boston): 27:23–34:34
• Offensive Tackle Debate (Kaden Proctor): 38:10–40:56
• Ole Miss–Oklahoma Preview & Matier QB Breakdown: 43:40–49:21
• Missouri–Vanderbilt & Diego Pavia Draft Value: 51:19–56:36
• Texas A&M–LSU, Nussmeier’s Struggles: 59:38–65:28

Overall Tone

The show is lively, friendly, and peppered with humor and inside-joke banter. Todd is bullish and unapologetic in his convictions but receptive to informed debate; Steve thrives as the devil’s advocate, pressing Todd to clarify inconsistencies or challenge the outlier picks—“If only we had that example in recent history. Oh wait, we do...” (18:41).

The hosts balance in-depth film study with meta-discussion about positional value and the realities NIL and the transfer portal have introduced into the draft world. Throughout, the tone is transparent and welcoming to critical feedback, directed both at themselves and each other.

For Further Detail

• Full Top 32, detailed prospect notes, and further breakdowns are available at the McShay Report.
• **Live game reactions and more draft talk ** streaming Saturday nights—a feature Todd highlights as their most fun content.

This summary captures all analysis, debate, player spotlights, and strategic draft context, equipping any listener (or would-be GM) with the core takeaways from the episode.