The McShay Show - Rough Draft 1.4: The Latest Risers, Fallers, and Behind-the-Scenes Intel on the 2026 QB Class

Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Todd McShay
Co-Host: Steve (last name not provided)

Episode Overview

In this flagship “Rough Draft” episode, Todd McShay and Steve deliver a candid, information-rich rundown of the latest NFL scouting intel as the 2026 Draft season heats up. They break down the biggest risers and fallers among draft prospects—especially on the defensive line and among next year’s quarterbacks—based on the freshest “tape and intel” from NFL scouts currently grinding on the road. The episode gives listeners rare behind-the-scenes details, shares off-the-record nuggets from scouts, and closes with an honest evaluation of potential QB draft classes, with a hard look at South Carolina’s Lenora Sellers.

Quick Reference: Key Segments & Timestamps

• Intro & Scouting Foundations: Tape and Intel
• Early Scoops & Miscellaneous Notes from NFL Scouts
• Quarterback Class Deep Dive: 2026 & Beyond
• Risers: Emerging Defensive and Offensive Talent
• Fallers: Honest Appraisals & Key Setbacks
• QB Class Future Outlook: 2026 vs. 2027

The Foundations: Tape and Intel [00:00 – 05:01]

• Todd McShay emphasizes that everything in NFL draft scouting comes down to two things: “tape and intel. Intel and tape. That's the foundation for NFL draft scouting.” [00:00]
• With the draft season firing up, McShay discusses how scouts have been away from home, deeply embedded in programs, and now are “a little ornery. They're a little bit more likely to just kind of drop the, the scoop on you and tell you how they're really feeling.” [01:32]
• The value of this episode is sharing the freshest, realest scouting information—“You’re not going to find what we’re about to share on this show... Google the McShay Report. Subscribe. This is the time of the year to jump in.” [05:04]

Scouting Scoops: Miscellaneous Notes [05:02 – 21:14]

McShay goes on a rapid-fire “miscellaneous notes” rant, sharing hard-to-get intel from scouts:

Notable Defensive and Offensive Line Insights

• Peter Woods (Clemson, DT): “Don’t jump off the train. If you like Mason Graham, why wouldn’t you like Peter Woods?” [05:36]
• Utah Tackles (Spencer Fano & Lō Lōmu): “Strong, strong indication he’d be best served to come back and play another year… but still think he could be a first round guy off of the traits and ascension.” [06:53]
• Francis Mauigoa (Miami, OT): Projected as a first rounder, “Worst case scenario... is he’s going to be an all-pro guard.” [07:19]
• Caleb Banks (Florida, DT): “Played had one. One game... he’s one of them. Like, top 20 wouldn’t surprise me.” [08:26]

Quarterbacks – Risers, Returners & Behind-the-Scenes

• Carson Beck (Georgia, QB): “I’m not ready to give up on Carson Beck yet... More good coming from Beck this year than the bad which is getting highly publicized.” [09:35]
• Fernando Mendoza (Cal, QB):
  • Likely to leave for the draft, but not locked.
  • “The Cal coach is not going to be his best asset... Not a dislike, just not as broken up about losing Mendoza as you’d think for a first round QB.” [11:35]
• Dante Moore (Oregon, QB): “Book it. He’s going to be back at Oregon next year and be paid handsomely to be that.” [13:12]
• Jets’ Draft Strategy: Revealed behind-the-curtain thinking—“The Jets... have an eye on that class in 2027 that could include Julian Sayin, Arch Manning, Ty Simpson, Dante Moore, Mateer, Sellers.” [13:44–14:09]
• Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee, QB):
  • “Don’t leave Nico out of that [2027 QB] class. Nico does special things... Special things that maybe some of those other guys can’t do.” [15:11]
• John Mateer (Oklahoma, QB): “Desperately needs to return for his NFL draft stock.” Concerns include “more panic ... inside the pocket than I want. Caffeine, caffeine inside the pocket.” [16:24]
• Lenora Sellers (South Carolina, QB):
  • “Has ascended... shown progress... but he has shown he’s not there yet. He could really benefit from another year.” [17:56]
  • Major behind-the-scenes note: Miami has “lurking” interest if Sellers were to transfer, with the resources “to come in with an offer that is very difficult to refuse.” [19:38]

“Lenora Sellers… there’s a strong opinion in NFL scouting circles... he will be back in school next year, that he absolutely needs to for his development to be ready when he’s called upon as a first round draft pick.” – McShay [18:11]

2026 QB Class: Behind-the-Scenes [10:12 – 21:43]

McShay and Steve expand—the 2026 class could lose its biggest names to another year of college development, setting up perhaps a record 2027 QB class:

• Most top underclassmen (Sellers, Matier, Moore, Simpson, Arch Manning, Julian Sayin, Nico) expected to return—only Mendoza seen as likely to enter the draft.
• Heavy discussion of why QB development (both on-field, maturity, and with NFL-style coaching) is better served with another year in college for most prospects.

Risers: Emerging Defensive and Offensive Talent [24:14 – 39:40]

Steve's Risers:

Amari Washington (DT, Oregon) [24:14]

• “Elite run defender who is scheme versatile and can play anywhere along your defensive line between the offensive tackles.”
• “Not putting him outside, but… he played nose, played defensive tackle, regardless of the front.”
• “First round talent… in the mix for one of the first defensive tackles drafted if he comes out this year.” [26:12]

Derek Moore (EDGE, Michigan) [28:37]

• “Two sacks in each of his last three games… really explodes off the ball, can beat you with speed and then transition to power.”
• “He excels as a wide nine rusher because he can bend and is explosive.”
• “I see a top 50 player who could be the fifth or sixth edge rusher off the board in what I think is a very good edge class.”

Todd’s Risers:

R Mason Thomas (EDGE, Oklahoma) [30:01]

• Former Day 3 projection, now getting Round 1 buzz.
• “His get off, his first step, how explosive he is… his hands are married to the feet… and he has made a decision pre snap on how he’s going to attack this offensive tackle.”
• “If I’m his parent, if I’m Venables, if I’m that staff, you now have a player to look at and say, that’s the fucking standard.” [34:36]

"The two best pass rushers in this class are... David Bailey from Texas and R Mason Thomas from Oklahoma." – McShay [35:37]

LJ Martin (RB, BYU) [38:19]

• “One of the best backs in the country and one of the top running backs in the 2026 draft, should he leave early… He’s what everyone wants.”
• “Can we get a super talented guy with acceleration, vision, patience and contact balance at six one plus, 220 plus. Please, please, dear Lord, make more of these.” [37:52]

Fallers: Honest Appraisals & Reality Checks [40:03 – 52:30]

Steve’s Faller:

Lenora Sellers (QB, South Carolina) [41:05]

• “Beginning of the year... encouraging. October... discouraging. Ole Miss tape [Nov 1]... alarming.”
• “Does not excuse your fundamentals falling apart and missing open receivers... that’s just not something that’s going to fly.”
• “If I’m being honest, he’s not where I want him to be to call him a potential first overall pick.” [44:29]
• Despite sliding, still “a guy who’s got a real shot to be the first overall pick” if he returns to college and develops further.

“This takes onions. This is what a real man looks like, ladies and gentlemen… standing up and being like, I know he can be, but he’s not there.” – McShay on Steve’s candid assessment of Sellers [41:32]

Todd’s Faller:

T.J. Parker (EDGE, Clemson) [47:04]

• Summer evaluation had him as a potential top 10–15 pick, “but I haven’t seen the growth.”
• “He’s dominating competition that... does not equate to the NFL... Leaves a lot of sacks on the table at the top of his rush, which defines pass rushers.”
• “Is this a ceiling?... That’s scary.” [48:48]
• “He has not taken those next steps… It’s time to look at who are the other guys.” [49:19]
• Now seen as second-round or fringe first-round, “not even a top five edge in this class anymore.” – Steve [51:36]

QB Class Future Outlook: 2026 vs. 2027 [45:05 – 47:03]

• Discussion of whether it’s okay for most top QBs to return, stacking the 2027 class with an “all-time” group of elite prospects.
• McShay fantasizes about attending the Manning Passing Academy with Steve and a potential embarrassment of quarterback riches.

“I would much rather have maybe the best quarterback class in the history of the NFL Draft in 2027.” – McShay [45:49]

“Whenever they’re ready is when we want them to come out. If it’s just Mendoza and a bunch of round two through seven guys this year, that’s fine too.” – McShay [47:04]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “Tape and intel. Intel and tape. That's the foundation for NFL draft scouting.” – McShay [00:00]
• “If I’m his parent... you now have a player to look at and say, that’s the fucking standard.” – McShay on R Mason Thomas [34:36]
• “This takes onions. This is what a real man looks like, ladies and gentlemen.” – McShay, praising Steve’s honesty on Sellers [41:32]
• “He’s not where I want him to be to call him a potential first overall pick. Now this is a lot. This is pretty raw for me.” – Steve on Lenora Sellers [44:29]

Conclusion & Outlook

This Rough Draft episode underscores just how dynamic the NFL draft landscape is at this stage of the season. McShay and Steve balance deep-dive tape study, boots-on-the-ground intelligence from scouts, and a willingness to challenge their own biases. The episode highlights the emerging dominance of big, athletic defensive linemen, the volatility of the running back and quarterback classes, and the patience required for talent to flourish—particularly at QB. Listeners come away with actionable names, nuanced scouting gaps, and a glimpse of the heated (and often ambivalent) internal debates that shape NFL draft boards.

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