The McShay Show: Scouting Garrett Nussmeier – Is He Baker Mayfield 2.0?

Episode Title: Scouting Garrett Nussmeier: Is He Baker Mayfield 2.0?
Release Date: May 22, 2025
Host: Todd McShay
Co-Host: Mitch

Introduction

In this episode of The McShay Show, NFL Draft and College Football Analyst Todd McShay dives deep into the potential of LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. The discussion revolves around whether Nussmeier could be the next Baker Mayfield, drawing comparisons and evaluating his readiness for the NFL Draft.

Background on Garrett Nussmeier

Garrett Nussmeier stands at 6 feet, 200 pounds, entering his fifth year at LSU and his second year as a starter. Over his collegiate career, he has amassed impressive statistics:

• 31 games played, 14 starts
• 10-4 record as a starter
• 31 fourth-quarter wins, including the Reliaquest Bowl against Wisconsin in 2023, where he was named MVP.

In his last season:

• Completion Rate: 64-64.2%
• Passing Yards: Over 4,000
• Touchdowns: 29
• Interceptions: 12
• Notable Injury: Missed six plays due to a shoulder injury against Oklahoma but returned to help secure a victory (Timestamps: [09:55]-[10:36]).

Notable Accomplishments:

• First-Year Starter Records: Most prolific first-year starting quarterback season in LSU history, surpassing previous records in passing yards, completions, attempts, touchdowns, and total offense ([10:39]).
• Leadership: Three-time team captain, demonstrating strong leadership and communication skills pre-snap and during gameplay.

Evaluation Criteria: The McShay’s Framework for Quarterbacks

Todd McShay outlines the assessment framework used to evaluate quarterbacks, focusing on both universal and position-specific traits:

1. Universal Traits:

   • Production
   • Durability
   • Intangibles
   • Medical Status

2. Quarterback-Specific Traits:

   • Mental Makeup: Confidence, aggressiveness, leadership.
   • Accuracy: Precision in passing, touch, and placement.
   • Load to Arrival (LTA): Quickness from decision to ball release, combining release speed and arm strength.
   • Mobility: Pocket mobility and running ability.

These traits are rated on a scale from 1 (Elite) to 5 (Marginal).

Detailed Evaluation of Garrett Nussmeier

A. Mental Makeup

• Confidence and Aggressiveness: Nussmeier exhibits high confidence and relentlessness on the field, similar to Baker Mayfield. His leadership is evident through his command of the offense and pre-snap communication ([13:45]-[17:59]).

  • Notable Quote:
    Todd McShay ([13:50]): "Man, I, I freaking love his confidence. And it's, it, and it started like the Baker stuff."

• Areas for Improvement: Needs to balance aggressiveness with situational awareness to avoid being a "traitor to his own team."

• Grade: Todd assigns a Grade of 2 for mental makeup, praising his leadership but noting occasional lapses in decision-making ([22:33]-[23:34]).

B. Accuracy

• Strengths: Demonstrates exceptional anticipation and touch, capable of making precise throws under pressure. His ability to anticipate receiver movements and defender positions sets him apart.

  • Notable Quote:
    Todd McShay ([35:30]): "He has the anticipation and the touch under duress in the red area is, I mean that's, that's impressive."

• Weaknesses: Occasional inaccuracies on incomplete platforms and dump-offs when under pressure.

  • Notable Quote:
    Mitch ([27:06]): "He misses within the strike zone occasionally, especially when he doesn't set his feet."

• Grade: Todd assigns an A1 for overall production but discusses areas needing refinement. Mitch rates accuracy as a 2, suggesting room for improvement ([37:06]-[38:55]).

C. Load to Arrival (LTA)

• Strengths: Quick release combined with solid arm strength, allowing him to make timely throws without excessive strain.

  • Notable Quote:
    Todd McShay ([37:13]): "I gave him a two because I absolutely think he has the ability to throw with accuracy, touch, and the lead receivers and anticipation that very few guys we study coming out of college have."

• Weaknesses: Not classified as having elite arm strength; some off-platform throws lose energy.

• Grade: Both Todd and Mitch rate LTA as a 2, recognizing solid but not elite performance ([37:13]-[38:55]).

D. Mobility

• Strengths: Excellent pocket mobility, making him a moving target and allowing him to evade sacks effectively. Shows pro-level movement while maintaining balance and focus.

  • Notable Quote:
    Todd McShay ([39:36]): "He's a moving target, and he does so with a good base underneath him for the most part."

• Weaknesses: Limited running ability, particularly in high-stakes moments where effective sliding or additional mobility could be beneficial. Ball security issues when running.

• Grade: Todd assigns a 2, noting the need for enhanced running techniques and ball security ([39:44]-[43:50]).

Strengths of Garrett Nussmeier

• Anticipation and Touch: Exceptional ability to project the football's trajectory to his receivers, ensuring precise placements even under pressure.
• Leadership: Strong vocal leader and command of the offense, essential traits for an NFL quarterback.
• Decision-Making: Generally sound decisions with the ability to trust his reads, albeit with moments needing refinement.

Areas for Improvement

• Ball Security: Needs to reduce fumbles, as five fumbles can significantly impact game outcomes ([43:50]).
• Running Techniques: Improve sliding and decisive running to avoid unnecessary risks and maintain possession.
• Accuracy Under Pressure: Enhance accuracy on incomplete platforms and improve dump-offs to minimize turnovers.

Comparison to Baker Mayfield

Garrett Nussmeier is often compared to Baker Mayfield due to their similar aggressiveness and confidence levels. Both quarterbacks share a relentless drive and a knack for making decisive plays under pressure.

• Similar Traits: Leadership, pocket command, aggressive playstyle.
• Differences: Nussmeier exhibits stronger anticipation and touch, whereas Mayfield may have a slightly more developed running ability.

Notable Quote:
Todd McShay ([45:59]): "I believe that Brian Kelly does develop quarterbacks well. I now know that they have an offseason. I saw it with Jaden Daniels. And now I want to see it with Garrett Nussmeier."

Potential NFL Draft Outlook

Todd McShay is optimistic about Garrett Nussmeier's prospects in the NFL Draft, considering him a strong contender for the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Key factors supporting this projection include:

• Exceptional Skill Set: High grades in mental makeup, accuracy, and anticipation.
• Leadership Qualities: Proven ability to lead and command an offense.
• Development Potential: Opportunity to refine areas such as ball security and running techniques under a supportive coaching system.

Mitch adds:
Mitch ([46:06]): "He's got to be in the mix to be the first quarterback off the board. I saw the same things you did."

Conclusion

Todd McShay and Mitch conclude the episode with high expectations for Garrett Nussmeier, highlighting his potential to become a top-tier NFL quarterback. They emphasize the importance of continued development and the right support system to elevate his game to the next level.

Final Words from Todd:
Todd McShay ([45:53]-[46:06]): "I'm ready right this moment on May 21, 2025, to say Garrett Nussmeier is absolutely in the conversation for QB1 in 2026. I believe that he's going to be the first quarterback off the board in 2026."

Key Takeaways

• Garrett Nussmeier possesses the traits necessary to excel as an NFL quarterback, with standout skills in anticipation, accuracy, and leadership.
• Areas for Growth: Reducing turnovers, improving ball security, and enhancing running techniques will be crucial for his transition to the professional level.
• Future Prospects: With continued development and the right coaching, Nussmeier has the potential to be a top draft pick and a successful NFL quarterback.

Notable Quotes

• Todd McShay ([00:57]): "You know this man. Sometimes the tape just speaks to you. That was the case for me with Garrett Nussmeier, the LSU quarterback."
• Todd McShay ([13:50]): "Man, I, I freaking love his confidence."
• Mitch ([27:06]): "He misses within the strike zone occasionally, especially when he doesn't set his feet."
• Todd McShay ([35:30]): "He has the anticipation and the touch under duress in the red area is, I mean that's, that's impressive."
• Todd McShay ([45:53]): "I believe that Brian Kelly does develop quarterbacks well. ... I want to see it with Garrett Nussmeier."

This comprehensive analysis on The McShay Show offers insightful perspectives on Garrett Nussmeier's potential as an NFL quarterback, drawing meaningful comparisons and highlighting both his strengths and areas for improvement. For fans and scouts alike, this episode provides valuable information on one of college football's promising talents.