The McShay Show: “Tape Takes! Our Unfiltered Thoughts on Oregon–Penn State, Georgia-Alabama, LSU–Ole Miss, and More Week 5 Matchups”
Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Todd McShay & Steve (Mensch)
Podcast: The Ringer - The McShay Show
Episode Focus: Deep, tape-driven analysis and predictions on marquee Week 5 college football games and their NFL Draft implications; a sharp divergence from “hot takes” to a more grounded, film-driven discussion.
EPISODE OVERVIEW
The hosts roll out their first “Tape Takes”—raw, in-depth college football breakdowns driven by exhaustive film study. Todd and Steve dig deep into pivotal Week 5 matchups (Oregon–Penn State, Georgia-Alabama, LSU–Ole Miss), explore player-specific storylines with significant NFL Draft impact, and offer sharp insight on quarterbacks, defensive fronts, and emerging coaching talent. The show is peppered with trademark banter, plenty of strong opinions, and an unsparing look at current narratives in college football.
KEY DISCUSSION POINTS & INSIGHTS
1. John Matier’s Injury and Oklahoma’s Quarterback Situation
[04:55–12:39]
- John Matier (Oklahoma QB) “Heisman favorite now moving into the first round NFL draft talk” suffered a hand injury requiring surgery. He finished OU’s big win while injured, showing remarkable toughness ([06:04] McShay: “This son of a bitch was playing with a hand injury that required surgery and he finished the game!”).
- Timeline: Four weeks out expected; return could target the pivotal Oklahoma–Texas game.
- Backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr. has impressed the staff: “We’re going to be all right. Trust me, this guy’s ready to go.” ([09:37])
- NFL Draft Angle: Matier went from a “Day 2 guy” to a legitimate round-one candidate by betting on himself at Oklahoma with a brutally tough schedule: “It’s Joe Flacco before the Super Bowl year, a bet-on-yourself type opportunity.” ([10:42])
- Oklahoma’s playoff/committee implications: Early absence might be better long-term: “You’d much rather be in the middle of the season with your star player out and have him come back and finish strong.” ([07:39])
2. Oregon vs. Penn State: Quarterback Disparity and Matchup Dynamics
[13:02–30:44]
The Tale of Two QBs: Drew Aller vs. Dante Moore
-
Drew Aller (Penn State):
- Struggles beyond 10 yards, especially layering/touch throws: “The difference in level of play at the quarterback position between Aller and Dante Moore is staggering.” ([14:55])
- “Struggles to throw the football past 10 yards,” especially in big games. Tape and departures of top WRs support the narrative.
- Has drive, size, toughness – but lacks suddenness and the field-stretching ability for playoff runs against elite competition.
- “Receivers are the truth-tellers, man… it ain’t addition by subtraction.” ([18:24])
-
Dante Moore (Oregon):
- After just nine starts, already showing “anticipation and timing” rare for such inexperience. Throws a "catchable ball" with velocity, impressive pocket navigation ([24:13], [24:48]).
- Not the fastest, but sudden, “climbs the pocket” and excels in pressure moments.
- “Outside of John Matier, I don’t know that there’s another quarterback in the country doing it at a higher level than him.” ([24:35])
- Offensive weapons: Seven Oregon receivers averaging >14 ypc, tight end Sadiq “might be TE1 by the way” ([22:27]).
- Key Tape Sequence: Two-minute drive vs. Northwestern highlighted advanced touch, anticipation, and poise ([23:18–24:31]).
Supporting Cast & Scheming
- Penn State WRs: Limited big-play capability; none averaging over 12.8 ypc ([21:21]).
- Oregon’s support cast: True freshmen, multiple deep threats, tight end producing at an elite level.
- OC Will Stein (Oregon): Emerging coaching star, “doing things with the most important position in sports that’s not going on in a lot of places” ([30:10]).
Game Prediction
- McShay confident in Oregon: “I like Oregon to win this game… I think you can argue Penn State’s better, certainly at running back… But yeah, that’s it. My rant is over.” ([27:18])
- Mensch: “Give me Dante Moore over Dylan Gabriel. I just think Dante Moore is a more talented player… I think they’re better at quarterback this year.” ([28:16])
Notable Quote:
- [14:55] Todd McShay:
“The difference in level of play at the quarterback position between Aller and Dante Moore is staggering. It’s staggering, Steve. And I don’t say that lightly.”
3. Alabama vs. Georgia: Changing Rosters, Quarterbacks, and Defensive Identities
[32:20–42:23]
Quarterback Surprises & OL/DL Battles
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Ty Simpson (Alabama QB): “Vastly underrated Ty Simpson. He’s a good football player.” ([33:02])
-
Offensive focus: Alabama’s shift to a throwing team, especially since the return of star WR Ryan Williams.
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Alabama WRs: Outing vs. Wisconsin shows arsenal ready; Simpson "makes quick decisions, moves well."
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Alabama RBs: “They do not have Alabama running backs. That’s just the way it is.” ([39:39])
-
Georgia Defense:
- Lacks “dudes up front”—no Jordan Davis-level disruptors ([36:02])
- Secondary vulnerability: “Jonelle Aguirre had an interception, but gave up five catches on seven targets. Dalen Everett was solid… Daniel Harris, tough day…” ([36:35])
-
“This is not an elite Georgia defense based on what I’ve seen so far.” ([36:30])
Big Picture & Numbers
- Kirby Smart at home: 52–4 at Georgia (“Careful about going against this cat,” [40:40])
- Kirby vs. Alabama: 1–6 record, never beaten Bama in Athens.
- Key presence: Return of Alabama’s Tim Keenan on the DL changes run defense calculus.
Prediction:
Both hosts uncertain, feeling less sure about these two teams than usual by Week 5, but sense “this is going to be an interesting fight.”
Notable Quote:
- [36:30] Steve (Mensch):
“This is not, this is not an elite Georgia defense based on what I’ve seen so far.”
4. USC’s Defensive Transformation & Illinois OL Issues
[45:56–49:33]
- USC’s Defense (vs. Illinois):
- Danton Lynn’s scheme: “Exotic fronts… never know who’s coming or going… twisting guys, different coverages.”
- Key transfer safety: Bishop Fitzgerald, “just reads the quarterback. He’s got three picks this year.”
- Front seven: Transfer and young talent, including Eric Gentry (6’6” LB)—“He looks like a small forward, Cam Chancellor, but he can close.” ([47:58])
- Illinois Offensive Line:
- “We knew they sucked going in. We were going to go after them and they sucked as bad as we thought.” ([46:25])
- Illinois expected to struggle picking up edge pressure and interior disruption, especially as QB Luke Altmeyer holds the ball too long.
Pick:
USC “on the road, six and a half… I think Illinois is gonna drop the second one in a row.”
5. Ohio State–Washington: Demon Williams’ Emergence
[49:54–54:48]
- Demon Williams (Washington): Praised as a “special, special” QB, able to create with his arm and legs; watch for him “gassing” the Ohio State defense.
- “All he needs is like six, seven big-time plays to keep this thing frustrating for Ohio State. I think Ohio State’s walking into a war.” ([54:18])
- WRs: Chris Brazil, Denzel Boston, Jordan Tyson all make up a dangerous receiving corps.
- Both hosts emphasize: Washington is under-ranked nationally, “it’s because stupid people are not all, but there are too many stupid people.” ([54:23])
6. LSU–Ole Miss: Revising Preconceptions about Mobile QBs
[54:52–61:21]
- LSU historically struggles vs. mobile QBs, not solved by simply having Harold Perkins on the field: “Maybe it’s not Harold Perkins. Maybe it’s…more than that... it’s just football.”
- Defensive improvement: LSU rebuilt DL and secondary through the portal, “gap sound, tough players” ([56:14]), but still face challenge from Chambliss (mobile Ole Miss QB).
- Offense/Coaching: Lane Kiffin praised for offensive adaptability—“That’s genius.” ([59:39])
- Game context: Home teams dominate the rivalry, “would not surprise me if the Tigers were upset this weekend.” ([60:30])
7. Other Key Tape Takes
- Mississippi State’s Pass Defense Is a Mirage
- Stats impressive, but opponents (Southern Miss, Alcorn State, etc.) weak; issues exposed in details.
- “For a Power 5 school, that might have been the worst pass defense I’ve ever seen.” ([61:55])
- Predicting Tennessee to “roll them.”
- Auburn–Texas A&M: Covering Cam Coleman
- Texas A&M’s best CB, Will Lee, playing poorly. “If he doesn’t start playing up to his ability quickly, they’re gonna have a hard time covering on the back end… Cam Coleman’s a problem.” ([70:25])
- Notre Dame–Arkansas State & Playmaking QBs
- Contrast between Taylen Green (tall, tools, but turnover worthy) and Demon Williams. Notre Dame’s OL among best in country—“Their offensive line has been awesome.” ([75:29])
- Indiana–Iowa: Cautionary Game Script
- Indiana has “substantial edge in talent,” but if Iowa drags game out, “it could get interesting.” ([77:28])
NOTABLE QUOTES AND MOMENTS
- McShay on Analysis Philosophy:
“This is kind of our F U to hot takes. …I’m not here for the hot takes. You're not here for the hot takes, but I'm here for the tape takes.” ([03:44]) - On Oregon–Penn State QBs:
“The difference in level of play at the quarterback position between Aller and Dante Moore is staggering.” ([14:55]) - On Alabama RB Situation:
“They do not have Alabama running backs. That's just the way it is.” ([39:39]) - On Mississippi State Pass Defense:
“For a Power 5 school, that might have been the worst pass defense I've ever seen.” ([61:55]) - Lane Kiffin Gossip:
“Is there anything better than the SEC? Is there anything better than Lane?” ([58:14])
TIMESTAMPS FOR MAJOR SEGMENTS
- Matier Injury & OU Outlook: 04:55–12:39
- Oregon–Penn State (QB analysis): 13:02–30:44
- Alabama–Georgia (defense, QBs): 32:20–42:23
- USC Defense/Illinois OL: 45:56–49:33
- Ohio State–Washington, Demon Williams: 49:54–54:48
- LSU–Ole Miss Mobile QB Issue: 54:52–61:21
- Miss. State–Tennessee, Pass Defense: 61:55–68:04
- Auburn–A&M (Cam Coleman): 68:07–71:09
- Notre Dame Offensive Line, QB Differences: 71:42–76:08
- Indiana–Iowa Game Dynamics: 77:28–79:26
- FanDuel Picks and 9-leg Parlay: 79:54–85:27
FINAL NOTES — PICKS AND PARLAY
- Picks of the Week:
- Todd: Oregon -3.5
- Steve: USC -6.5
- 9-leg Parlay: Multiple alternate/spread line selections, built from their strongest tape-driven convictions for the super slate.
EPISODE TONE & STYLE
Blunt, bantering, and transparent. McShay and Mensch lean into detailed football jargon (“layering throws,” “COVID-three,” “catchable ball”), supply plenty of side commentary, and are unafraid to sharply critique conventional wisdom—no “hot take” shortcuts here, just film-room grittiness. There’s consistent deference to the tape, competition level, and context—plus an authentic love for the sport’s unique, unpredictable character.