The McShay Show — 2026 QB Deep Dive: Mendoza’s Comp, a New QB3, the 2027 Factor, and More

The Ringer | March 16, 2026

Episode Overview

In this quarterback-centric deep dive, hosts Daniel Jeremiah and Steve Smith dissect the top QB prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft class. Drawing comparisons to earlier draft years and prospects, they break down the strengths, weaknesses, and unique traits that define this year's class. The conversation covers player comps (most notably, Matt Ryan for Fernando Mendoza), advances through the analysis of Ty Simpson and various day-two and day-three hopefuls, and closes with a look ahead to the highly anticipated 2027 QB class. Amid spirited debates and detailed analytics, they provide clarity on why this is a unique, if thin, year at the top of the QB board — and why the NFL may be laser-focused on the quarterbacks who aren’t even draft eligible yet.

Main Themes

• Evaluation and Ranking of the 2026 QB Class: Top prospects, their comps, strengths, and red flags.
• The “Matt Ryan–Mendoza” Comparison: Why Mendoza is the consensus top pick and what makes him special.
• Historic Context: Comparing the 2026 class to past draft classes, particularly 2008.
• Second-Tier and Developmental QBs: Strengths and risks for Ty Simpson, Cole Payton, Garrett Nussmeier, Carson Beck, Taylen Green, and others.
• Draft-Day Trends: Why most day two and three QBs fail, and which specific traits have predicted NFL success.
• Impact of the 2027 QB Class: How NFL teams are already maneuvering for next year’s much stronger class.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 2026 QB Class in Context

• Not a Star-Studded Class: Only Mendoza is considered a sure first-round QB. Others are seen as high-upside but riskier, with many likely falling to day two and three.
• Historical Parallel: The class likened to 2008 (Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco year), where one obvious high-end guy leads a group of varying prospects. “...one, maybe two [QBs] in the first [round]. It’s a couple guys who could go in the second...maybe a third rounder sneaks in.” — Daniel Jeremiah [03:19]
• Most Teams are Looking Ahead: Two to three NFL franchises are positioning for 2027, expected to be a historically deep QB class.

2. Fernando Mendoza – “The Matt Ryan Comp”

• Profile: 6'4¾", 236 lbs, 9½" hands; Cal QB, grandson of Cuban immigrants; two-star recruit turned late-blooming star.
• What Stands Out:
  • Toughness & “Onions” (guts): Shows up in big games, never wilts under pressure, repeatedly wins from behind.
  • Immaculate Mechanics: Despite long levers, has clean, repeatable throwing mechanics—“compulsively repetitious...almost Brady-like” — Daniel Jeremiah [14:34].
  • Situational Excellence: Not great for 3 quarters, but a ‘closer’ in the final 10 minutes, consistently delivering in high-leverage moments.
  • Comparison: “If you said, what’s your NFL comp, your best QB comp in this class, I’d say Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan and Fernando Mendoza.” — Daniel Jeremiah [03:19]
• Weaknesses:
  • Handling Sudden Pressure: Can panic when facing quick, inside pressure; lacks lateral agility; pressure-to-sack ratio (27.1 career, ballooned to 27.7 late season) is a red flag.
  • Sample Size: Main concern from league insiders—was he just a one-year wonder?
• Best Tape: “Mendoza vs. Ohio State in that Big Ten championship game was the best individual tape I’ve watched of any QB in this class.” [20:19]

Notable Quotes

• “He just makes plays when he needs to make plays. He steps up in big moments. He does not wilt when the brightest lights are on him.” — Steve Smith [09:57]
• “Toughness and onions, if you ask me.” — Daniel Jeremiah [11:06]
• “I’m really high on Mendoza… I would put him ahead of Cam Ward coming out.” — Daniel Jeremiah [23:03]

3. Ty Simpson – “High IQ, High-Risk”

• Profile: 6'1", 211 lbs, 9⅜" hands; former 5-star, one-year starter at Alabama after waiting behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe.
• Strengths:
  • Football Savant: Command, anticipation, aggressive (sometimes to a fault).
  • NFL-Ready Mind: “His brain is like a Beautiful Mind… He does all those things the right way.” — Daniel Jeremiah [25:19]
• Weaknesses:
  • Limited Experience (15 starts), durability concerns, smaller frame.
  • Regression Down the Stretch: Stats/decision-making fell off in biggest games, culminating with injuries and key teammate absences.
  • Throws: Too often failed to “just give his receiver a shot.”
• Projection: Late 1st at best, ideally as a developmental backup who can sit (e.g., Rams behind Stafford).
• Draft Philosophy: “Where you land matters for QBs more than any other position.” [35:24]

Notable Quotes

• “Simpson… absolutely was the better quarterback [than Mendoza] for [the] first nine games. [Mendoza’s] tape got significantly better in the biggest games down the stretch. Ty’s went in the opposite direction.” — Daniel Jeremiah [24:55]
• “His inability to stay healthy… all of those things — risky, man.” — Steve Smith [33:14]

4. QB Prospects Beyond Round 1: Pros & Cons

Cole Payton – “Underrated, Untapped Upside”

• Profile: North Dakota State; 6’2”, 232 lbs, lefty, comped stylistically to Jalen Hurts/Tim Tebow, limited passing attempts, heavy runner, only 13 starts.
• Strengths:
  • Physicality & Toughness: Played through broken thumb at Senior Bowl.
  • Results, Not Technique: Despite “tight upper body, shot-put delivery,” consistently on time and on target.
• Concerns:
  • FCS Competition and “one year wonder;” huge leap to NFL.
  • Durability/Start Count: Missed time, only 13 starts.
• Draft Grade: Jeremiah would take him late second/third round due to upside, even if only as a “package QB” initially.
• Breakout Stat: “Cole Payton joins Drake Maye, Jaden Daniels, and Joe Burrow… with [elite] big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates.” — Daniel Jeremiah [53:21]

“[Cole Payton] is the most underrated QB in this class. I’d draft him in the second round.” — Daniel Jeremiah [48:28]

Garrett Nussmeier – “The Ultimate Backup with Flashes”

• Profile: LSU, son of a coach, 6’2”, 209 lbs, two-year starter, 23 starts.
• Strengths:
  • Processing & Instincts: Outstanding timing, pocket presence; “the floor is a decade-long backup, ceiling is more, especially in a West Coast system.” — Daniel Jeremiah [56:54]
• Concerns:
  • Small Frame & Durability Issues: Core injury hurt his 2025 tape.
  • Late-Game Turnover Risk: “Goes into renegade mode… reminds me, in some ways, of Baker Mayfield.” — Daniel Jeremiah [57:28]

Carson Beck – “Experience and Frame, But a Villain?”

• Profile: 6’5”, 233 lbs, 10” hands; Miami/Georgia, 43 starts.
• Strengths:
  • NFL Frame, Loads of Experience
  • Can get through progressions, win as a pocket passer.
• Weaknesses:
  • Turnover-Prone: Can press and spiral into mistakes.
  • Perceived Immaturity & Off-field Red Flags: “He is the villain… how he left Georgia, post-game comments, Lamborghinis, Cavender twins, etc.” — Steve Smith [63:53]
• Projection: Can win you games in a pinch, not seen as a long-term franchise guy.

Others: Taylen Green, Baron Morton, Drew Allar

• Taylen Green: Athletic, tons of starts, “different cat” as a runner, but big accuracy/decision concerns.
• Baron Morton: Tools and experience, valued in league circles for leadership and competitiveness.
• Drew Allar: Big, strong, won lots in college, but major accuracy issues on throws to receivers on the move.

5. Why Day Two and Day Three QBs Rarely Succeed

• “The One Out of Ten Rule”: In the past 10 years, 66 QBs selected after round one — only five have more than 32 starts (Dak, Hurts, Brissett, Minshew, Purdy):

  “92% of day two, day three QBs failed to become long-term starters.” — Daniel Jeremiah [39:29]

• Predictive Traits:
  • Processing speed
  • Short/intermediate accuracy
  • Durability
  • Long college careers (25+ starts)
  • Toughness/leadership
  • Example: Prescott, Purdy, Hurts all checked these boxes.

6. The 2027 Factor—The Next Great QB Class

• NFL Teams Strategizing for ‘27: At least two teams are already positioning to draft next year’s QBs.
• Headliners: Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and Brandon Sorsby—the “real prizes” (plus several others who’d be high picks if eligible this year).

  “Several teams… everything they've done this offseason — it's to get ready for next year because they're going to get their QB in 2027.” — Daniel Jeremiah [71:41]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Draft Value: “Where you land matters for QBs more than any other position.” [35:24]
• On Mendoza: “Toughness and onions, if you ask me.” — Daniel Jeremiah [11:06]
• On Day 2 Value: “At worst you’re getting a good backup — there’s value there. Look at what teams pay for backup QBs.” — Daniel Jeremiah [62:03]

Key Timestamps

• [03:19] Mendoza as Matt Ryan comp; historical class context (2008 draft parallel)
• [09:57] Mendoza “onions” moment — winning in key situations
• [14:34] Mendoza’s mechanics and repeatability praised
• [20:19] Ohio State tape called “best in class” for Mendoza
• [24:55] Ty Simpson’s first 9 games v. Mendoza; divergence late in season
• [35:24] Draft value depending on landing spot (“Arizona” scenario)
• [39:29] The “one out of ten” rule on day two/day three QBs
• [53:21] Cole Payton's elite big-throw stats
• [57:28] Nussmeier compared to “Baker Mayfield-mode” late in games
• [63:53] Carson Beck as “villain” and debate on his NFL role
• [71:41] Detailed explanation on why 2027 class is causing ripple effects now

Final Takeaways

• Mendoza is the only clear first-rounder in a weak QB class—comped directly to Matt Ryan and viewed as a “clutch” performer.
• Ty Simpson’s smarts and grit entice, but his body and resume worry. He’s a late first/second-round “bet” for a team with patience and infrastructure.
• Day 2/3 QB picks are lottery tickets, with history showing very few become NFL starters—traits like processing, durability, and starts are the best predictors.
• 2027 looms large: Teams are openly holding draft capital and roster space for next year’s blue chippers.
• Draft debates center on risk appetite: Do you bet on traits, tier-two experience, or try to wait for the next class?

For Those Skipping the Episode

This episode is a must-listen for anyone watching the 2026 QB market: it delivers in-depth scouting breakdowns, honest risk assessments, and crucial context on why teams may “wait until next year.” While Fernando Mendoza is the clear star and consensus #1, the true drama is how NFL teams are prepping for an even bigger QB wave in 2027.