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- [00:06]
Daniel Jeremiah
Today is a big one, so we better get right to it. It's the quarterback deep dive for the 2026 NFL Draft. And guess what? There's just 38 days until this sucker kicks off.
- [00:17]
Steve Smith
Man, are you good? I'm great, man.
- [00:20]
Daniel Jeremiah
Oh, my favorite beat Tuck. I don't know if you're a fan of the show and you're watching and you've noticed the bags under my eyes, some of the frowns that men has been throwing at me from the other side of the room. It has been a grind this past month, and it's not just because it's draft season. That's always a grind. We've got a lot of exciting stuff come. I've been kind of hinting, leaving little seeds everywhere for the last month. And this is going to be my biggest seed because we're showing graphics today that will give you a glimpse into what's coming and stick with us one more week. Today's Monday. We're recording the show. Whether you're watching on Monday, we appreciate you watching on Netflix, on Spotify, listening, downloading on, on Apple or anywhere else you get your podcasts right, throw some likes and some subscribes, please. This is our time of year. We need to. We need to show the. The growth, right? But you'll see some of these quarterback graphics today as we go through the quarterback deep dive that we do annually before the draft. And we're excited. And the reason why I've had the bags and kind of look like I'm. I've aged 10 years in the last last three months. And why Dan's behind the. The scenes, like working around the clock, and he's got some attitude that you guys don't get to see. And Mench is giving me attitude. Everyone's giving me attitude in my life, including everyone at home because of what we've been doing behind the scenes, grinding away in the lab, getting prepared for what we're going to drop on you on Monday. Get excited, folks, and we'll give you more details on Wednesday. And then Monday, all of a sudden, there's a whole new world with the McShay show and everything involved with it, and we are fired up. Also on Monday, Mach 3.0. It's going to be a just. We're going to blast it out there. Let's go. So there's a lot coming, but we got to get in these quarterbacks. Okay.
- [02:25]
Steve Smith
Yeah, I can't wait.
- [02:27]
Daniel Jeremiah
I did a lot of research in the last 48 hours after watching tape on all of these guys. Every single throw. I sound like Ron Jaworski back in the day. Watch every single throw from these guys. But like just, you know, getting our, getting the this, the reports ready and getting ready for this show, it's what we do every year. I want to start with this mensch, this class starting. Starting with Fernando Mendoza. And I'll show you my rankings in a minute. I've got 10, 10 quarterbacks ranked. There's about 11 I think they could get drafted, maybe a couple other on the fringe. Mendoza very clearly at the top. Everyone expected to be the number one overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. This class, you know, everyone's kind of going back to. It's kind of like Kenny Pickett's year. So every if it's not as great a class as 20, 24, everyone's like, oh, it's the Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis here, right?
- [03:17]
Steve Smith
Yep.
- [03:19]
Daniel Jeremiah
It's not that I think last year, it's actually not that dissimilar. Cam Ward is the number one overall pick. And then maybe a lot of varying opinions on the rest of the guys. A chance for a second quarterback to come off the board. But you're not sitting here today in the ides of March convinced that it will be with Ty Simpson and then a bunch of date day two, you know, later day two and day three guys. Yeah. And if you want to go back historically and this when I talk to GMs, it's interesting. You talk to whether it's Schefter or Breer or you know, or Rich Eisen, Colin Cowherd, they, they like how we on the show and, and I think historically, what I've done in the past with espn, give some context. Right. And for some, you know, to contextualize this class if you want to go deeper. Oh, he's just comparing it to last year. I had to go back to 2008 where I felt like there's some similarities. And the interesting part is if you had to give me, if you said, what's your NFL comp, your best quarterback? NFL comp in this class, I'd say Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan and Fernando Mendoza. Okay. And so that's not even the jump jumping off point, but it is interesting. But back in 2008, we had Matt Ryan as the number number one quarterback off the board. He was actually the third pick to the Atlanta Falcons. Okay. Then you had Joe Flacco go in the bottom half of the first round at 18. I don't know that Ty Simpson is going to go as high as 18. We'll see how this process plays out and we'll talk about Ty Simpson. Deep dive after that, the next quarterback taken. There were two of them in the second round. You had Brian Braum, Chad Henny. Okay. Then you got to the third round as Kevin o'. Connell. And then there was this wait until the fifth round where we had four guys go, John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson, who's still in the league miraculously, and Eric Ainge. All the talent in the world, but had some issues. And then, and then a few more guys in the sixth and seventh round with 13 quarterbacks drafted. So where's the similarities? I think the similarities lie in that it's one, maybe two in the first. It's a couple guys who could go in the second. We'll get to those guys today. Maybe a third rounder sneaks in. So we'd give you five in the first two days. And then you got a bunch of guys on day two starting probably in the fifth round because their teams are going to wait. Okay. And I did some more historical context on day two. Day three picks that we'll get into after we get to our top two guys who could be first round picks. Certainly one of them in Mendoza. But let's get to it right now. Okay?
- [05:56]
Steve Smith
Okay.
- [05:58]
Daniel Jeremiah
Fernando Mendoza. Let me give you a little backdrop. I'll get your, your opinions just off the top, what are the things that stand out? I want to focus today more on because we did this last year and I feel like it was an hour and 40 minute show and we did every single note that we had on every single guy. And there's other outlets that we're going to announce soon where you can get all that stuff. Today I want to focus on what matters. What are the conversations that are having happening in draft rooms as they're analyzing these guys? What are the reasons, Give me a reason or two or three why this quarterback can succeed and if he doesn't. This is a question that you always, the GMs always want to know if he doesn't succeed, why, why will it be? Tell me right now. Okay, so let's keep with that in mind. Let's give you a little background on Fernando Mendoz. I think everyone at this point kind of knows the story, but he's a grandson of Cuban immigrants. Right. Grows up in the Miami area. He was a two star recruit coming out of high school at Christopher Columbus High School in Miami, Florida. Originally committed to non scholarship Yale.
- [07:00]
Steve Smith
Right.
- [07:01]
Daniel Jeremiah
Tells you, tells you a little bit about his, his brain, his Intelligence and. And his academic. Right. Then flips to Cal when he gets a late scholarship offer. His only offer. It's wild. Coming out of college, a scholarship offer was at Cal, and it was kind of last minute. So he goes there. Red shirts in 2022, 2023, he starts eight games. Then he starts 11 in 2024. After that 2024 season, you and I watched the tape, right?
- [07:29]
Steve Smith
Yeah.
- [07:30]
Daniel Jeremiah
And we were first to market, I promise you. I even watched, I saw a clip on social media about Mike Mayock, our bud, right? From the old NFL, networking about. Nobody knew anything about this guy last year. And I understand that, like, national, conceptually, like nationally. But remember, we had Pete Thamble reaching out, saying, hey, I've talked to some GMs, and I heard you. You know, I was tuned into the McShay show, and you guys. You guys have a potential first round. And I'm kind of getting that maybe that could be the case. So I. I feel like while we were first to market, I also, rightfully so, was very late on being like, yeah, I'll put my chips in on this guy, you know?
- [08:14]
Steve Smith
Yeah.
- [08:16]
Daniel Jeremiah
And we'll get to that. We'll get to that in a minute. Let's talk about him. What do we have in Mendoza? Like, just up the 30, 000 foot view? Six foot. What is he, 6, 604? Oh, man. If you're watching on Netflix, Spotify, you can see the graphic. Just a little taste of what's coming. Okay. Their spider graph, the combine results, 36 games played, 35 starts. That makes me happy. Looks clean. It's so clean, man. I'm so proud of what we're doing. And everyone who's put their. I mean, the amount of work that's gone into all this. Okay, so you got 604, 6046 at six, four and three quarters, 236 pounds, nine and a half inch hand span. Okay. So he checks every box. From that standpoint, he's gifted, man. Like, it's what you want in a quarterback. Tall, thick. He's. He's actually thicked out. He was about 220. Linear frame. It was more like. Is he Sam Bradford or now Matt Ryan? I think this is what kind of the mat. What's that thicked out?
- [09:29]
Steve Smith
I haven't heard that one yet.
- [09:30]
Daniel Jeremiah
There we go. But he's got. So he's got this blend of size, hand span, straight line speed, arm strength. Right. Kind of what you look for is the prototype. Okay. I want, before I get into my report, and thoughts and I've got a deep dive on a few things there. General thoughts from Steve Mensch on Fernando Mendoza. If I said give me the longer than elevator pitch, but you got a couple minutes to come into my office and tell me where are you on Mendoza?
- [09:58]
Steve Smith
I think you're bearing the lead and I know why you're doing it. You're. You're methodical in your approach to how you evaluate these players. And it's kind of like a building block. We start with that foundation of what's their background, you know, what's their height, weight, speed, all that stuff. I get it. But it, to me, it's bearing the lead. The first thing you start with Mendoza is. Is as you would say, the onions. I mean that's, that's where I would start with him, is what. How did he perform in big moments from the national championship game to being on the road against Penn State to being on the Iowa. Being in these situations where he had to step up and make plays in key moments and consistently did so. So to me, that's what separates him from the other quarterbacks in the class more than anything else. There's other things. Don't get me wrong, his frame is great, the mobility to go along with it. I think he's got a good arm talent. I think he is accurate when he can get the ball out on time. His first read is there. His preparation is outstanding. All of those things are true. But if you're asking me why I would take this kid first overall, I am starting with. He just makes plays when he needs to make plays. He's. He steps up in big moments. He does not, he does not wilt when the brightest lights are on him.
- [11:06]
Daniel Jeremiah
It's toughness and onions, if you ask me.
- [11:10]
Steve Smith
Great point.
- [11:10]
Daniel Jeremiah
I should have said toughness and onions. Toughness and onions. He's mentally tough, he's physically tough. You saw the Kate. I went back and watched that Ohio State game and I'll get to that in a minute. Kaden Curry with that first hit of the game, absolutely knocked his ass out. And throughout that game, it was a mission. Matt Patricia's defense was going to test him. Do you actually have. Because you played some solid defenses, you played some less thans, you haven't. No one's been able to get to you. They put bubble wrap around you. Rpo, quick game, quick reads, get the ball out, we are going to kick your ass and see if you have it in the tank. And you know what he did? Shoved it right back down their throat. There was a play later.
- [11:52]
Steve Smith
Yeah, same with Miami.
- [11:54]
Daniel Jeremiah
There was a play later in that Miami, in that Ohio State game. Curry again, he's dealing from his own end zone. Mendoza is, comes in. I was shocked. This one didn't get a penalty. The first one was absolutely clean. This one was a little late, Knocked his helmet, hits the ground, pops right back up. Curry got two massive shots and there were a bunch in between. Yeah, his toughness, and this is why he reminds me of Matt Ryan. The toughness and the moments. If you remember back to Matt Ryan, how many late game situations and maybe he didn't play great for three quarters. Maybe the team around him at Boston College wasn't great. There were moments, I think it was the Virginia Tech game burned into my brain watching that tape. What he did late in those games, the running around, the mobility and you think Matt Ryan, you don't think mobility, but at Boston College he was running around, he was extending when he making plays with his feet, his mind and his, his anticipation, throwing the football and most importantly his toughness and this, this knack for showing up big in big moments and, and you touched on, on a couple of them. But like the Iowa game, you watch that tape for three quarters, actually three and a half quarters, you're like, this is the first overall pick.
- [13:12]
Steve Smith
Yeah.
- [13:13]
Daniel Jeremiah
You watch the Oregon game for three and a half quarters. This, this guy. Nah, you watch the Penn State for three and a half quarters, like, nah, he doesn't have it. Then you watch the fourth quarter, the, the last 10 minutes or so of each of those games because I want to remind you, there was, there was a, the fourth quarter interception versus Iowa. There was a fourth quarter pick six against Oregon. There was a fourth quarter interception against Penn State, fourth quarter interceptions, one of which was a pick six in those regular season games. But then even in those games, they
- [13:52]
Steve Smith
were heating them up too. I mean you look at that Iowa game and they were just like, you know, you might beat us but you're, we're not going to let you just sit back in the pocket because we know you're going to pick us apart. And the in the game plan was clearly like we're going to just going to zero blitzes and just try to get to you. And he was taking shot after shot after shot and again steps up to Elijah Shirop when the game matter, when the in matter the most makes a play and they walk out of there with a win on the road.
- [14:18]
Daniel Jeremiah
And then Ohio State and then Miami in the College Football Playoff. Okay, all five of those Games I just mentioned, three regular season, two playoff. All away from home. Crowd, noise, environment, not, you know, although
- [14:32]
Steve Smith
Indiana traveled well in the playoff. Good for Indiana.
- [14:34]
Daniel Jeremiah
They did, they did. I'll give him that. I think there's something about him too that I noticed as I went back and I watch all these quarterbacks again. I watched the pressure drops. I go through all these different reels. Right. One of the things that hasn't been spoken about with him is a long levered guy. Talked about almost 6 foot 5, long legs, long arms, those long levered guys. It's hard to have repeatable mechanics. He's as good as I can Remember for a 6, 4 quarterback. He's almost Brady. Like in this instance, in terms of where Brady got with his lower and upper body in sync mechanics, it is compulsively repetitious, his stroke and that's why he's so damn accurate. Deep outs, you know, every, everything outside the numbers, even the intermediate back shoulders. Yeah, the back shoulder stuff is elite. Elite. It's like 1%. Okay, so you got all that. Then you've got a tall guy with instincts, prepared who has like, it's rapid fire. Watching his progressions, man. And it's not just 1, 2 to 3, it's 1, 2, 1, 1, 2. You know, it's like if you watch the behind the helmet stuff, the tight copy of just his, just his helmet, where it's going or if you're watching it from the other end zone and watching his eyes, He, he's got that. Okay, here's the part though. Why, and, and listen, I like that it was a year over year improvement. I do some people kind of old school, like, well, it's just one year and it was just a college football playoff. And. But then I, I would counter with. Okay, Jaden Daniels was a third, fourth round pick coming in and went number two overall. I would counter with. Cam Ward was a fifth round pick and then went one overall. Then you could counter that. Counter with. Yeah, but are you sure yet?
- [16:44]
Steve Smith
Right, right.
- [16:46]
Daniel Jeremiah
And like the. So there is an element when you talk to people in the league and I'm talking to people in the league who are like, I just don't love that it wasn't kind of like, you know, Drake may. Even though he didn't have his best years last year, we knew he was, he was one of those, he was one of those guys. He was one of them. Caleb Williams didn't have his best years last year, but he was one of them. There's something to that you know, most importantly, here's my biggest thing on Fernando that. That worries me. This is it. And I talked to a head coach in the NFL who's known for his quarterback development, quarterback understanding. And the thing that he said that scares him is that some. With some guys, with a lot of guys, you either have it or you don't. What worries me about Mendoza, and keep that framing in mind. When pressure comes on him quickly, he can run on a straight line. He is not okay. His ability to handle pressure that gets on him quickly is not where it needs to be. And it's a combination of. I see for all the mechanical, the eyes, the progressions and all the fast reads and the decisiveness, he has this moment of panic that you can see. And I think it's a byproduct of knowing I don't have that initial lateral agility, nimbleness with my feet to beat pressure when it gets there quickly up the middle, pressure or pressure that flashes quickly affects him. His interceptions, if you go back and look at him throwing off his back foot, rattled pressure, rolling, they. They're all tied together, man. And so when I talk to people in the league and I have my own 26 years of experience to go off of, the concern is, is this something that's correctable and why I can't give him a 96, a 95 grade? That's the. That's the part, man. That's the part. But then I finish. And if you want analytical support, Mendoza. Pressure to sack ratio, 18 to 18.9. 36 out of 57 draft eligible quarterbacks this year. Most concerning is that ratio ballooned to 27.7 in the team's final seven games when he actually played his best ball. And his career pressure to sack ratio finished at 27.1. Let me give some context. Ty Simpson, 16.7. And he had some issues with that regard. Garrett Nussmeier's 12.5. Sensational. And he's not nearly as like, mobile, you know, running. So keep that in context. But then you watch that Ohio State tape, Steve, and this is whether it's a trap or it's. You can look at it to two lenses. One is it's a trap. That and the. My, you know, or you can look at this other lens and say he just kept getting better. And that's the best of. And that's what we're going to continue to see, you know, But I want you. I want you to understand this Miami tape, I mean, Ohio State tape, it was the best individual Fernando Mendoza versus Ohio State in that Big Ten championship game was the best individual tape I've watched of any quarterback in this class. And you could actually argue of the last two classes, including Cam Ward, Jackson dart.
- [20:19]
Steve Smith
I see that. Yeah, I could see that first hit
- [20:22]
Daniel Jeremiah
he took against Curry to bouncing back right back in the game. Nothing happened. The mental and physical toughness even beyond that, even if that hit didn't happen, he was surgical and he was surgical under pressure, rolling, manipulating with his eyes, maneuvering in the pocket. And the, the short to intermediate stuff was absolutely clockwork precision. It was like a surgeon man. Six foot five quarterbacks at 225, 236 pounds. Now, don't have that kind of. Just in college don't have that kind of precision as a passer. Everything was lead them right. It was the best tape I've seen in the last two years of quarterbacks. And then the onions part after getting another hit in the end zone that I just talked about. Absolutely unflappable. That dagger he throws down the right rail to Charlie Becker. 241 remaining. Fourth quarter, it's third and six, their own 24 yard line. They're winning that game by three points. You don't convert on that play. You're punting back to Julian Saying and Jeremiah Smith and Carnell tate with about 210 left in that game. And I, you know, Indiana's defense was great all day game, all great all season. But you kind of feel like that's the moment where Ohio State at least ties it or it's the, it's the, it's the game winner. So that's, that's Mendoza.
- [22:08]
Steve Smith
So Matt Ryan's a pretty high comp. I'm surprised when I. What did you hold every record?
- [22:15]
Daniel Jeremiah
Matt Ryan's hall of Famer. Matt Ryan? Yeah.
- [22:19]
Steve Smith
I hate to put you on the spot. Did you look back and see what grade you gave Matt Ryan?
- [22:23]
Daniel Jeremiah
Oh, I want to say.
- [22:24]
Steve Smith
I know. Sorry.
- [22:25]
Daniel Jeremiah
90. No, it's okay. I think it was a 93, 94. Somewhere in that range. A little higher back in the day too. That was 2008, so it could have
- [22:32]
Steve Smith
been handed him out.
- [22:35]
Daniel Jeremiah
Handing them out.
- [22:36]
Steve Smith
I, I've said Jared Goff all along and I, I still don't hate that comp. But I, I'm coming around on the Matt Ryan thing because I don't know if people realize how, how his onions when he was at Boston College that last year, I mean there were several games where he was just making plays and willing the Eagles to victory. So I kind of like it. I just think that if it's. If Matt Ryan's the comp, you're high on Mendoza because Matt Ryan was an outstanding NFL quarterback.
- [23:04]
Daniel Jeremiah
I'm really high on Mendoza. I'm. I'm. I can't. Honestly, the more I watched of them, I would put him ahead of Cam Ward coming out.
- [23:13]
Steve Smith
Yeah.
- [23:14]
Daniel Jeremiah
Cam Ward's tools are greater, and I can't wait to see Cam Ward with some of the weapons they brought in with Brian Dable and everything that's going on in Tennessee because it's pretty cool to watch what they're doing. And Mike Borgonzi, who we talked to at the. At the combine, and, you know, Brian Dable's a bud and I just respect him. I'm excited to see what happens there. But I think I just. There's a trust level that I have with Mendoza. Even though there's this. There's this last little bit where I'm like, I. I don't think he's elite of elite, like tools wise. And I. I think he's just a notch, like, I can't. He's not a. He's not Drake May. He's not Caleb Williams. He's not Jaden Daniels, but Jaden James. The durability stuff, we always knew and we're. Yeah, they're just different, though.
- [24:01]
Steve Smith
I. And when you say like, not. I think Drake May is looking back on it is on a different level. I think Caleb's on a different level. I think Jaden's diff. Different. He's a different style of player, if that makes sense. They do it in different ways, and you style your offense around it and you. You build around what they do, what their strengths are. So I think Mendoza's, you know, he's. I think he's a very good quarterback prospect.
- [24:28]
Daniel Jeremiah
So let's transition to Ty Simpson, who's number two on the board. And I've been a huge Ty Simpson proponent. And I've gone back now and drilled in, as I always do this time of year, through pressure, you know, the pressure clip reel and like, really dug in. This is a QB confessional. There is a. There is a difference between Mendoza and Simpson. Okay? But I. But I. Even. Even going back and watching, I don't. I stand on as hard as you can stand on.
- [24:55]
Steve Smith
You.
- [24:56]
Daniel Jeremiah
You give me the tapes for the first nine games. For both of these quarterbacks, Ty Simpson absolutely was the better quarterback. Okay. He hadn't had Ohio State yet or Miami or the college football playoff run. Ty Simpson's tape got significantly better in the biggest games down the stretch. That's the difference. Mendoza. Sorry. Mendoza.
- [25:19]
Steve Smith
Okay.
- [25:20]
Daniel Jeremiah
Ty Simpson's unfortunately for him went in the opposite direction and we'll get to all that in a second. Ty Simpson, what do you have? 616011211 pounds, nine nine and three eight inch handspan. So he's an undersized quarterback, former five star guy from goes to Alabama. He waited three years to get his turn. Look at that beautiful scouting report right there. You see the 89 grade. I have this kind of fringe first round. Waited three years behind Bryce Young. Jalen Milroe played 16 games but attempted just 50 passes during the first three season. Then he takes over as a starter in 2020 the Crimson Tide to the second round of the College Football Playoff 114 record. Completed 64 1/2% of his throws. Touchdown interception ratio was awesome. 5.6 to 1. Dad's a college college head head coach Jason Simpson UT Martin for 20 years. Simpson as I said, undersized, inexperienced and I already if you want to go back to our Ty Simpson when he declared for the draft and go check it out on on probably YouTube or Spotify, you can I did a long breakdown about all the quarterbacks that were sub 25 starts versus the guys with 25 or more and how the vast majority of everyone in the league that's a good starter right now that you would consider in the top 15 starters are like 32, 33 starts or more coming out of college. So there's all that going against him. Lack of size, one year starter, inexperience obviously with with the one year as a starter just 15 starts and the one year he was a starter he struggled to stay healthy. He gets down to £190 Gastritis taking on all these hits. Get the rib injuries, get all sorts of things going on and I'll get to the to the why behind that in a little bit. On the positive side, Ty Simpson has as good a command and conviction pre snap and also his scheduling. What does that mean? Urgency depth of his drops, tie tying his feet, tying his feet to the play structure, right. The concept, understanding the timing of everything. Everything is scheduled perfect. It's like he, he, my gosh, you just see it in him. This kid was born with a football in his hand. He was around ball his whole life. He understands the inner workings of every play and what's expected and what the what the pre step motion is supposed to identify and when. Once it identifies that what then it leads to. His brain is like. It's like the Beautiful Mind. I love all those things about him. As a former quarterback, I just have such a level of respect. It's like an art. And when you deal with these, when you, when you've been around the game playing quarterback and when you've evaluated quarterbacks for 26 years and then you're spending a lot of time throughout my years at ESPN and throughout my career with hall of Fame quarterbacks and very good quarterbacks, you just. I don't know, when you evaluate quarterbacks, it becomes this, this art. It's like this respect level for the guys who do it the right way. He does all those things the right way. He's his ability to like manipulate the pocket, his anticipation as a passer. He trusts himself, man. He's aggressive and sometimes to a fault, but he will leave. Like he makes NFL throws. And I'm not talking about like 25 yard comebacks, you know, I'm talking about. And he actually has better energy on the ball than people think. He actually is more mobile than people think. But I'm talking about like you can't see it. You trust it. You lead a receiver. Like these throws that he's making, like that throw to Jeremy Bernard against Florida State, again, the left rail. Go look my Twitter x, it's at McShade 13. There's some things he does that very rarely. So you combine all those things and I promise you that aspect of his game I haven't seen since Joe Burrow in 2019. Now, Joe Burrow had a lot of starts. Joe Burrow went from Ohio State to LSU at two years starting. Joe Burrow played that last season and he finished the season strong. Joe Burrow is bigger. Joe Burrow has, was more durable. Okay, so don't get it twisted. I'm saying he's Joe Burrow. I'm not. I'm saying from all the aspects I just talked about, the scheduling, the conviction, the anticipation, the pocket maneuverability and just manipulation. That's what I see. His play declines, though there are a couple things. First of all, his play declined during the final six games of the season. He completed 61% of his throws. The final six games, four interceptions. The first nine, it was 67% with just one pick. Four factors. I looked at Alabama's run game, ranked 125th in the FBS. Atrocious. Brent Venables, defensive. The head coach who's also defensive coordinator at Oklahoma or whatever. Play caller. The defensive mind provided a blueprint print for defeating The Tides protection that game was on on November 15th. From that point on, protection did not hold up well. Simpson then number three, was dealing with a multitude of ailments, taking a lot of hits byproduct of the first two factors that I just mentioned and wound up down to 190, as I said with the guest radis by the Rose Bowl. And number four, his star wide receiver Ryan Williams all but disappeared. Just 13 catches for 161 yards and no touchdowns during the final six games of the season. Six of those catches were in the in the loss against Indiana. Okay, so those factors have to be considered. But I don't believe in excuses at the quarterback position. The final thing I'll say that concerns me, I don't like his inability or his trajectory on certain throws. The thing I, I always say what makes you brilliant also can be your fatal flaw. I believe that in life and I believe that especially at the quarterback position. With Simpson, everything is driving and drilling and anticipating and putting it on spots and aggressive right. And I love that about him. But there's a lot of throws where and this is what Joe Burrow did really well. This is what Jackson dart I talked about a lot last year did really well. There's a lot of throws require you to not put it. It's not. This is not a QB camp. Make it an ugly throw. Put it up for grabs a little bit. Defenders get his back to you. Put it up. We are not putting out a highlight reel on all the great throws you can make, Ty.
- [32:19]
Steve Smith
You're making plays. Yep.
- [32:21]
Daniel Jeremiah
Give your receivers an ability to make plays. And there are too many times where I'm writing down my notes as I'm watching the tape where it's like put the ball up, didn't let his receiver make a play, balls bouncing off the defender's helmet, stuff like that. So that's my full breakdown on Ty Simpson. Would I take him late one? Yeah, if I'm a team like Arizona and could trade back in for not a lot. Yeah. Pull a Giants thing and see what we got. But I really want him to. I really want him to sit for a year because even though he only started one year, I want him to like watch a starter prepare, get some reps, be ready even though you don't get a lot and come into some games. Just get a feel before we're throwing you out there as a starter in week one. Almost like the Jackson dart and that that's why day ball and the and the staff for the Giants brought in the two the two veteran quarterbacks. Right. Russell Wilson, Jameson Winston. So that's where I am on tie.
- [33:14]
Steve Smith
I think we have very similar pros and cons. I think our risk analysis here is a little bit different, if that makes sense. I think we're looking at the same information. I think we feel similarly about the tape and how much we like the player and how well he played early on and, and there it's easy to get excited about that. And then you're looking at those cons and you're seeing the lack of starts, you're seeing the smaller frame, you're seeing his inability to stay healthy. All of those things. Risky, man. It is.
- [33:43]
Daniel Jeremiah
I, I want to say this. I, I. When I went back and did the deep dive, I came down a little bit on his grade. Just a. Just a hair.
- [33:50]
Steve Smith
I'm not surprised. Yep.
- [33:51]
Daniel Jeremiah
And I also can contextually came to the. I would combine this year and last year's draft if you give me 2025 and 2026 quarterback drafts together. Combine the 25 and 26 draft. I am taking Mendoza, Cam Ward, Jackson Dart, Ty Simpson, in that order.
- [34:15]
Steve Smith
Ooh. I thought you might get Chuck ahead of him.
- [34:19]
Daniel Jeremiah
I, I was just going off of the order. I gotta go back and look. I, I would put. I would put Shuck and Simpson in this. Probably the same bucket.
- [34:27]
Steve Smith
Be close.
- [34:28]
Daniel Jeremiah
It would be.
- [34:29]
Steve Smith
I just.
- [34:30]
Daniel Jeremiah
And I, and I, and I really like Ty Simpson. Yeah. It might be shock. It might be shock. A. A touch higher, quite honestly.
- [34:38]
Steve Smith
I mean, I know he. He missed a lot of time with injuries, but Chuck had a lot of experience, too. It's just. I, I just. It's Simpson. I, I get the excitement, but. But the fear. The, the. It just scares me. All. All of these. You we talked about earlier, what's going to. Why would he fail? Well, lack of experience. He had some problems staying healthy. And he's a. He's not a small quarterback. 211 is not terrible, but he is a smaller quarterback. All of those things. I don't know, man. There's just too much to scare me about it. And I get it. Quarterbacks are so valuable. I, you know, I'm not saying you don't draft them early. I think first rounds too early. I talked myself into the Rams because I just thought that was such a great landing spot for him and he could play behind. He could sit behind Stafford and learn from McVeigh.
- [35:24]
Daniel Jeremiah
And that's a very different feel for. I have a very. On draft weekend. Yep. You. You put the Rams logo next to Ty Simpson. Correct. I have a very different outlook and feel for what's going to happen to his career than if you put an Arizona Cardinals helmet next to his name. Right. What makes sense for one team and
- [35:44]
Steve Smith
one player does not make sense Or
- [35:46]
Daniel Jeremiah
Cleveland Browns for that matter.
- [35:47]
Steve Smith
I mean, Arizona. We're, we're going to Arizona. I don't know, man. I don't like the expectation will be that he plays. I'm assuming, like, I don't, I, I just, I don't. There's a lot there. There's. He's a difficult evaluation because some of the tape is it's such at a high level and some of it's just not. And then again, all of the things
- [36:07]
Daniel Jeremiah
we've already mentioned, all the things we've
- [36:09]
Steve Smith
already mentioned, it just scares me so much that I have a hard time pulling the trigger in the first round on them.
- [36:15]
Daniel Jeremiah
I want to get to this. I did a really deep dive into the last 10 years of the draft in quarterbacks and then we'll get to a few guys that we like on, on day two, maybe early day three, and then kind of rip through the last guys. Right.
- [36:28]
Steve Smith
I've got some bones to pick with you.
- [36:30]
Daniel Jeremiah
Okay, great. And I'm, I'm probably unusually high on one of the guys that we're going to get to next. Yes.
- [36:37]
Steve Smith
But.
- [36:38]
Daniel Jeremiah
Okay. Yes, good. My major takeaway. I went to the last 10 years of the draft. I wanted to get a sense so I could be honest with our audience about what we're actually talking about here. And this is not the kind of ringing endorsement that makes you want to watch the watch or listen to the rest of the show as we get to guys that we, we truly believe are going to be day, day three picks. You ready for this, Steve?
- [37:00]
Steve Smith
Go ahead.
- [37:02]
Daniel Jeremiah
10 years, 2015 to 2024. Okay. 66 quarterbacks were drafted in rounds two through seven. So you're talking about 6.6. Between six and seven guys drafted. Of those guys, 32 plus career starts. Now there's some, there's a caveat here, especially with a guy like Malik Willis, Tyler Shuck. Right, Right. So that could, it could be two more. Five of those 66 currently have 32 starts, which would. Which to me, 32 starts, even it should be 34 now. But we've seen, you know, 16 games scheduled to go to 17. Whether it's 32 or 34 starts. All these guys are, are in that, that list anyway. It's five currently. Dak Prescott with 100 plus starts. Jalen Hurts with 70 plus Jacoby Brissette, Gardner Minshew and Brock Purdy. Wow. So really three of those guys. Would you consider three of them. Would you consider from rounds two through round seven like legitimate high end start. High end starters like top 15 in the league and that's Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts and Purdy. Like, like they are the starters of a journeyman who bounces around starts game. Jacoby Brissette's holding the is the placeholder again next year.
- [38:31]
Steve Smith
Right.
- [38:32]
Daniel Jeremiah
As it stands right now for Arizona, but certainly is not the long term, you know.
- [38:36]
Steve Smith
No,
- [38:39]
Daniel Jeremiah
it's pretty scary. Now Malik Willis could, could make that an additional one and he was signed and paid to do that and he will be. Tyler Schuck absolutely is trending in that direction.
- [38:49]
Steve Smith
Correct.
- [38:49]
Daniel Jeremiah
So you could have five guys in a decade drafted after round one, but that's one out of every two years who actually becomes the starter. Just go through our lads and click on their depth charts. Yeah, you can do it by position and just. And go down the list. Almost all former first round picks. Now a lot of those guys are busts that were first round picks too. But the vast majority of the league, so 92% of the day two, day three quarterbacks failed to become long term starters. 92%. So when we're talking about this guy, these guys coming up, it's one out of ten.
- [39:28]
Steve Smith
Right.
- [39:29]
Daniel Jeremiah
That will become like, that will become a Dak Prescott, a Jalen Hurts, a Brock Purdy or maybe a Malik Willis or maybe a Tyler Shuck. Okay. So keep that in mind. It's important.
- [39:41]
Steve Smith
It is.
- [39:41]
Daniel Jeremiah
Okay. So I thought that was fascinating. Here's my other takeaway with those. I went back and did a deep dive and talked to a couple GMs over time. What's the most predictive traits? And you could argue there are a couple of them with Malik with the mobility and all of that and you could argue with, with you know, Dak maybe and Shuck with the size and the frame. All that. All that. But the most predict traits that carry out over those guys that actually defied the odds, the 8 percenters to become good long term starting quarterbacks in the league. Processing speed.
- [40:23]
Steve Smith
Wow, that's so tough to, so tough to gauge in today's college game. Man, it is so tough to predict.
- [40:30]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah. But we know that Nuss Meyer, Ty Simpson and Mendoza are three of the best processors and Beck is one of, you know, like so.
- [40:36]
Steve Smith
But it's tough. Go ahead.
- [40:38]
Daniel Jeremiah
Malik Willis was, that was probably one of his worst traits. So I'm not saying it, but if you're, if you're combining all this and trying to paint a picture.
- [40:45]
Steve Smith
Patrick Mahomes, famously the same thing. Famously. Patrick Mahomes, who told you that he couldn't read defenses when he got to
- [40:53]
Daniel Jeremiah
Kansas City, so couldn't yet. But when you talk to people in the league and when you. Actually, I got to talk to him at. In Bristol, Connecticut, and then. But can, can. And there's an instinct. So. So just keep that in mind. Processing speed, accuracy, short and intermediate.
- [41:13]
Steve Smith
Yep.
- [41:14]
Daniel Jeremiah
Durability, which now looks like Nussmeier Simpson. Okay. Durability, extensive college starts. So minimum 25. But. But we're talking 33 more. Birdie, a ton of starts. Dak Prescott, ton starts. Jalen Hurts, two different stops, Alabama and Oklahoma, ton of starts. Tyler Shock, ton of starts. Yeah, I can't remember Malik exactly, but he was at least a two year starter. Ton, you know. Yeah. And the, the competitiveness, toughness, leadership, like guys that you would stand on the table for, like embody it. Okay, I keep all that in mind because there's some guys like Baron Morton. Baron Morton kind of fits all those things except the durability, ideally, but the toughness and the bouncing back from injury and kind of found a way to fight it out. Carson Beck kind of fits all those things, believe it or not.
- [42:23]
Steve Smith
Oh, I believe it.
- [42:24]
Daniel Jeremiah
Okay.
- [42:24]
Steve Smith
I believe it.
- [42:28]
Daniel Jeremiah
So now I want to get.
- [42:29]
Steve Smith
Did you see Kiff Kiffin took a shot.
- [42:33]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yes. With the Cavender twins. Yeah, he can't help himself. All right, let's, let's, let's, let's get to these other three quarterbacks. The three other quarterbacks that I'm excited to talk about for this year's class. Okay.
- [42:44]
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- [43:14]
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- [43:44]
Daniel Jeremiah
This is the guy I've been dying to talk about. Cole Payton, North Dakota State mensch. I'm telling you, he's the most underrated quarterback in this, in this class and nationally. Did you see Cole Payton's scouting report there? Nationally, I don't think. I just don't hear anything about Cole Payton. Conversations with NFL GMs. This is kind of the guy and we got a, we got a first glimpse into him at the Senior bowl and really liked him as you see some of the tape here. And then I came back and I studied the tape and he grew on me. But you know what I had to get over. Let me describe someone to you, okay. 60232 30. Built like, kind of just like a, almost like an H back right lefty, tight upper body. Kind of a shot put delivery. Spent a lot of, a lot of early time in his career. RPO inverse veer running the football short yard. Was a fullback at the quarterback position. Who's that remind you of? Steve Jalen.
- [44:50]
Steve Smith
Hurts.
- [44:50]
Daniel Jeremiah
Is that you're talking about Tim Tebow.
- [44:52]
Steve Smith
Tim Tebow.
- [44:54]
Daniel Jeremiah
I had to get over it.
- [44:55]
Steve Smith
I'm watching Newton, I guess. Yeah, I get it.
- [44:58]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah, but, but that same frame, you know, weight room pumped up, inside runner, physical, all that stuff and this just tight upper body. Yeah, but then I, but then I, and it was after I watched him at the Senior bowl and by the way, he had a broken bone in his thumb and you would never have known it about at the Senior Bowl. Oh my gosh, is he tough. But then I'm watching him on tape and here's the thing with Cole Payton, it is not orthodox, okay. And yes, he's got a big learning curve. He's coming from FCS, North Dakota State. He also had 256 career past attempts in an RPO heavy offense. Not ideal. So you got to kind of manage that of where like what he can be versus what he is right now and what his, his experience is. All right? Then the other part is this upper body tightness and all that. You watch that and like it's hard to get over at first, but then the tape starts talking to you. And why is that? Because like I remember Mahomes, like his mechanics were atrocious and I knocked him too much. And it was. I told you, he was the one quarterback that made me go back and kind of revamp my whole outlook on evaluating quarterbacks. Todd, focus on the results, not what gets you there sometimes. And with Mahomes, you just talked about it earlier in the show. I sat down with him in the preseason when I was doing the preseason games for the Chiefs. He's like, I didn't know how to identify the mic like halfway through my rookie year. And you know, and, and, and you know, Andy's talking to me and, and Alex Smith is talking to me. So. And also the mechanics and they had kind of had to drill in. How. How does this all work? But the results were from the work. Like this submarine style for him was a righty 50 yards in the field, but he looked off balance and he's like, no, don't make that throw. And all of a sudden he's putting on a spot 50 yards down the field. And so with Cole, I'm watching and I'm like, okay, get over that. He looks like Tim Tebow. A player that I had honestly was. That was like a trying time.
- [47:11]
Steve Smith
It is very true.
- [47:12]
Daniel Jeremiah
Anthrax like time where people are sending like Baptist preachers were sending me hate mail to praying for my hatred and all this stuff. And Tim and I are good now, but that was hard. And so like, I had to kind of get over that. But now I'm watching him and what, what helped me get over it is that the backdrop of the Mahomes of what's the result? The result is this guy is drilling spots left and right in the pocket on time, off balance, pressure coming, extending. And I'm saying there's a lot of untapped stuff here. North Dakota State's had five guys drafted quarterback. I honestly can sit here and tell you he's the best of that group.
- [48:03]
Steve Smith
Better than Carson Wentz?
- [48:04]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yes. Okay.
- [48:06]
Steve Smith
All right. Where. This is going to be an interesting day. Okay, fine.
- [48:11]
Daniel Jeremiah
He's just not where Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz didn't have a ton of starts either. No, but here's the part with Cole Payton. You can bring him in and. Okay, show me value. What's the value if we use a second round pick or third round pick? I don't think I, I would draft him in the second round.
- [48:27]
Steve Smith
You're gonna draft him in the second round?
- [48:29]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yes.
- [48:30]
Steve Smith
Cool. Well, I don't know when, when we want to get into this, but I can't wait to get into it.
- [48:34]
Daniel Jeremiah
I know you weren't.
- [48:35]
Steve Smith
Okay, you're the starts guy. You're my starts guy. He's got to have a lot of starts, you know.
- [48:41]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yes. The difference is when I, When I bring in ty Simpson with 15 starts.
- [48:45]
Steve Smith
Yeah.
- [48:45]
Daniel Jeremiah
I, I can't. I can't. You. I can't use him for anything. I'm getting value like the way that Seattle tried to do with Jalen Melro last year. Short yardage, goal line package.
- [48:57]
Steve Smith
Great. You know who has four.
- [48:58]
Daniel Jeremiah
He's developing.
- [48:59]
Steve Smith
You know who has 46 starts and is way more of a threat as a runner. Even though I do think Peyton's a threat is a runner. I don't want to. I don't want this to get mixed up. I think you can use him that way. You know, has 46 starts.
- [49:10]
Daniel Jeremiah
Two.
- [49:12]
Steve Smith
Taylor Green.
- [49:13]
Daniel Jeremiah
Dude, you're. I get. But I'm. But I'm also telling you that the difference in tape Mensch is so drastic that.
- [49:22]
Steve Smith
Give me. When you're a break. When you're at Arkansas going against SEC defenses and you're at fcs, North Dakota State going against teams that have been gutted by the transfer portal and you have one of the best receivers in the FCS running around like it's, it's like back. It's like recess football. Give me a break, man. Like I. There's. There is a huge gap in talent of what Taylor Green's going against and what Cole Payton wins.
- [49:49]
Daniel Jeremiah
Kaylin Green can't hit the broad side of a ball.
- [49:52]
Steve Smith
Not true.
- [49:53]
Daniel Jeremiah
Anticipation on anticipation throws. I liked what I saw in the progression from him at the Senior Bowl.
- [49:59]
Steve Smith
I like.
- [50:00]
Daniel Jeremiah
I. I think there's something there. His combine workout was legendary. He's a special, special athlete and yes, you can do so. You can do the same things and probably get a little bit more from him in short yardage, goal line and running package. But I can't trust him to throw the ball accurate. I'm not advocating and may. It may cost me the game if he throws the football.
- [50:17]
Steve Smith
I am not advocating for him advocating for you to. To draft Taylor Green in the first round. But if you're going to take a flyer and got some guy in the second round. You just told me all these things that are important starts. Right. You also said that durability is a thing. Right?
- [50:32]
Daniel Jeremiah
I said short to intermediate accuracy. I said hold on. I know you say those things.
- [50:38]
Steve Smith
You said processing. You said short. I understand all those things. You also said toughness and competitiveness. Durability and starts. You said durability and starts.
- [50:46]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yes. 13 starts. 13.
- [50:48]
Steve Smith
That's two of them. 13 starts.
- [50:50]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah, yeah, but he, but he also has played a lot of ball.
- [50:53]
Steve Smith
He missed eight games the year before with a, a show. A non throwing shoulder injury.
- [50:58]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yes, I understand. I mean but he had 30, 33 games played his first few years.
- [51:05]
Steve Smith
You can't do this. You can't do this. But I'm just going to throw it out there, even though I can't. Even though it's not something I should do. Put Taylor Green in that beautiful North Dakota State uniform. Let him run around.
- [51:16]
Daniel Jeremiah
He's not completing 72% of his throws with a 4 to 1 touchdown interception in that offense.
- [51:21]
Steve Smith
He might.
- [51:22]
Daniel Jeremiah
That. No, he's not. No, he's not. He's absolutely not. They're two different worlds. Steve.
- [51:28]
Steve Smith
Let's take a chance.
- [51:29]
Daniel Jeremiah
I want you to get the, the time stamp on this and clip it. Not for the draft. I don't care where they're drafted. Cole's gonna. Yeah, no, I don't.
- [51:36]
Steve Smith
I like that. I don't either. Who cares?
- [51:37]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah, actually, actually clip it for the draft but also clip this conversation. I knew you were gonna do that for 2029.
- [51:44]
Steve Smith
Yes, yes, please.
- [51:47]
Daniel Jeremiah
When I have a little bit more gray in my beard.
- [51:50]
Steve Smith
We're gonna take a flyer on the, the FCS kid who's a left handed kid who had a broken thumb at the Senior bowl, had a non throwing shoulder injury last year, had one start going into his senior year. Oh, by the way, that star was at running back. He was a running back. So like don't like I, I'm gonna take a chance. I get there. They're flawed. Both of them have their weaknesses. Right. Give me the, the statuesque big frame. I know they both have good frames, but Taylor Green's a different kind of cat. Dude who runs in the four threes, had four years of starting experience, two of them at Arkansas against SEC competition who I think made strides and again he has a long throwing motion. He puts the ball in harm's way. I. That all of that's true. I'm taking a chance on that kid. I'm taking a chance on that kid before some of the other guys. By the way, he's not even in the top six that you want to talk about, which is wild to me that you don't have Taylor Green up there with all these other quarterbacks.
- [52:47]
Daniel Jeremiah
I just told you, we just in 30 seconds told you what he is. He's a phenomenal athlete who's a developmental prospect who like his is. If you put together his, his, his past which Real all tailing Green. It's punch with the accuracy. Let me, let me. And let me end this conversation as we go on to Garrett Nussmeier and Carson Beckham. We know now there's no time limit on it, but we've way past what we wanted to do.
- [53:13]
Steve Smith
I got heated about that one. I like Cole Payton. I just don't understand.
- [53:16]
Daniel Jeremiah
Let me give you a nugget that you can stew on. Mensch.
- [53:19]
Steve Smith
Yep. Give it to me.
- [53:21]
Daniel Jeremiah
According to PFF stats, Cole Payton, albeit from the FCS ranks. So let's just get that out of there now. Joins Drake, May, Jaden Daniels and Joe Burrow since 2023 with the following three production or 2023 or 2013. I forget whatever it is, Joan joins those three with the following three production numbers in their best college season, which obviously was his only as a starter. Number one, big time throw rate from clean pocket of greater than 8%, turnover worthy play rate from a clean pocket of less than 1.5% and big time throw rate when blitzed of greater than 7%. There are three others that have had that and their names, as I just said, are Drake, May, because he doesn't have a first or last name. It's all one name. Jaden and Joe. All right. Garrett N. Is next on the list. And honestly, I'm a nuss guy. I've been a nuss guy since day one. I just love it. All the reasons I love Ty Simpson. I love Garrett. I love Garrett Nussmeier. Grew up around ball processing, understands the game. See that beautiful scouting report. I can't wait to unleash everything we're about to unleash next week on Monday. Mach 3.0 with every like we are going to roll out the world to you. It's why we're so stressed out and yelling at each other.
- [54:47]
Steve Smith
That's. That's far for the course this time of year.
- [54:49]
Daniel Jeremiah
It is 622039 and a quarter nine and an eighth inch handspan. Two year starter at LSU. The last year was regrettable and forgettable. Not regrettable, forgettable. Injured all year. Found out he had a core core muscle injury Garrett Nussmeier did in fall camp and fought through it. And it was so obvious on tape that honestly it was hard to glean much from the tape in 2025. But the 2024 tape was really good. But a roller coaster. Okay, yes. Five years there, two years as a start. All right. Completed over 64%, over 4, 64% over 4,000 yards, 29 touchdowns, but 12 interceptions in that one great year in 2024, a really good year. Son of the Saints coordinator and offensive coordinator and former NFL quarterback Doug Nussmeier. You can see it just like with Ty Simpson grew up around ball. We, we stood there on the field of the Senior bowl and the things that he senses and feels. Steve, as you see some of the clips from there are different. It's what separates him. He doesn't have the biggest arm, he's not the most mobile, he's not the biggest cat. He doesn't look like Taylor Green when he's standing next to him or even some of the other guys. But his instincts in the pocket are second to none in this class. He's got outstanding short intermediate ball placement from the timing to the anticipation. Leads receivers open, trusts his arm, trusts his eyes. He's just the, the beauty with Nussmeyer is the floor is he's a decade long backup who can come in and win some games, who is going to be awesome in the QB room and is going to just like you can rely on that. Okay. That's the floor. That to me is worth a third round pick and there's this ceiling of get him in the right system, a West coast system in a McVeigh, an O', Connell, a Shanahan LA floor. There's. And honestly you start to look at the branches of that tree and they're, they're positively infecting the, the rest of the garden in the NFL. Which is wonderful.
- [56:53]
Steve Smith
Yes.
- [56:54]
Daniel Jeremiah
Okay.
- [56:56]
Steve Smith
Give me any of those coaches for any of my quarterbacks by the way, thank you very much.
- [56:59]
Daniel Jeremiah
Absolute tough. This is nails in 2025 is an example. Also missed six plays after the shoulder injury against Oklahoma in 24 return to lead the team 3717 win. Never flinches in the pocket. This guy's got all those things but undersized durability concerns and no elite physical trait. Okay. That's concerning. And what makes us great can also be our greatest flaw. Our fatal flaw. Right.
- [57:28]
Steve Smith
I hate how much I like that
- [57:29]
Daniel Jeremiah
saying but go ahead for him. While I love the confidence and the trusting and just the belief that he has. Garrett Nussmeier goes into absolute renegade mode in the fourth quarter of Gates games and I love it about him and it reminds me a lot of a quarterback in Tampa Bay who bounced around the league a little bit. Right. Baker Mayfield. He's the same thing that like it. Just like he's going to find a way even when he doesn't, you feel like he's doing Everything he can to find a way. I see that in him. But also like Baker, but with less arm strength and a little bit less juice. I'm not calling him Baker, Maeve. I'm saying this aspect of his game is similar. Okay. The problem is. And you love it, right, like you go fourth quarter, come from behind, win. He had, he had four of them in his first 14 starts. Mensch. But they also had these critical late game mistakes. Final drive interception, the loss to USC, the beginning of 2024. Right. Could have cost the South Carolina game. That was a comeback win, one of those four that I talked about. But he also threw, had a pick early. Early in the fourth quarter. Could have cost him that game. He goes through these turnover bouts at times that are concerning. He had six turnovers and consecutive losses against A and M and Alabama in 24. So lot to unravel there with Nuss Meyer. But I think the value is going to be there whether it's. And I think it's probably late second, early third. At worst you're getting a really good backup who's going to be awesome in your quarterback room for a long time. But I see some more in Nuss Meyer, but quite frankly, Ty Simpson's just a better version with less experience. True.
- [59:13]
Steve Smith
Also, you're getting us. My only has 23 starts, by the way.
- [59:17]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah.
- [59:18]
Steve Smith
So I just, I can't. I so agree. All year we've just talked about starts and how important this is and durability and how important it is. And I just, I don't know, man. I think all these. I do.
- [59:30]
Daniel Jeremiah
But I don't have a first round grade on any of these.
- [59:32]
Steve Smith
I understand those guys.
- [59:34]
Daniel Jeremiah
Only important. It's only important you go back and look, look, historically it's first round quarterbacks who've been taking. Because what happened. I don't care if you're the 32nd pick, if you're one of those first 32 at quarterback and then you put a number of starts next to it, that's sub 25. The history tells you you're going to have to be one of the great outliers in analytics in sports.
- [59:58]
Steve Smith
Yeah, I understand.
- [59:59]
Daniel Jeremiah
You get in the second, third round, there's. You're not forced into it. There's not an expectation. You don't have to play early and so it gives you more opportunity to develop. But you're looking for two or two.
- [60:12]
Steve Smith
This is what I'm saying you're looking for. I think you're looking for two distinct kinds of quarterbacks. When you get into this range, you're looking for a guy, let's do it like tailing Green versus a Garrett Nussmeier and Taylor Green is a guy that you're going to develop or a Cole Payton that you're going to develop who has a skill set that you think you can bring along and you might have something there. Garrett Nussmeier is the guy who's you're planning on bringing in. He's going to be a career backup in my opinion. Maybe, you know, start some games and can win some games for you. If he gets called upon and he's going to have you want that guy who's, you know, like the smartest guy in the room, he's going to help the starting quarterback, all of those things. Right. I would think starts would be important to that kind of a player.
- [60:52]
Daniel Jeremiah
I think starts to be important, yes, I agree. But also I told you that, that I, I told you that probably the greatest year of growth mentally for Mahomes was the year he sat behind Alex Smith and learned from Andy Reid and everyone there doesn't have Mahomes talent.
- [61:13]
Steve Smith
He's not going to go sit somewhere for a year and then turn into a starter.
- [61:17]
Daniel Jeremiah
You don't. Okay, all right. We view it.
- [61:21]
Steve Smith
He's not Baker saying if you give
- [61:22]
Daniel Jeremiah
me a third round pick, I'm not saying he's Baker me, if he was Baker Mayfield, he'd be the first overall pick in the draft. Man, we're talking about two different things. I'm saying there's going to be growth with Ty Simpson if he doesn't have to start right away. There's going to be growth with Garrett Nussmeier. There's going to be growth with Cole Payton if he can serve as a short yardage goal line certain package. And we don't see it a lot in the NFL, but teams are kind of looking at it more with more intrigue.
- [61:48]
Steve Smith
Do you think at two years from now the team that drafts Garrett Nussmeier is going to say we have our long term answer quarterback.
- [61:54]
Daniel Jeremiah
I'm saying in a league where it's the most important position, I'm saying you have to take your hacks. And now.
- [62:02]
Steve Smith
Absolutely.
- [62:03]
Daniel Jeremiah
When this class is dried up in guys that you believe are plug and play starters and impact players, when you get to pick 70 or whatever it is, that's when I'm like, it's worth the risk because the worst case I'm getting a really good backup and there's value there. Look at the money that these backups are getting. There's money, there's value there.
- [62:22]
Steve Smith
Right.
- [62:23]
Daniel Jeremiah
All right, Carson Beck. What do you have on Beck? I'm. You're pissing, you're like, you're just.
- [62:29]
Steve Smith
We're.
- [62:29]
Daniel Jeremiah
Sean Stellato is back in my life.
- [62:32]
Steve Smith
We're not, we're not that far off of where these guys are. I think it's the ranking like when not. I think when we're talking about these guys. Just to put this in a little bit of respective. We're not saying, I'm not saying that Taylor Green should be a first round guy. You're not saying that. I know you're not saying that.
- [62:44]
Daniel Jeremiah
Give me your top five quarterback rankings right now.
- [62:47]
Steve Smith
I would go. We're gonna get into him right now. Let me pull them up. It's obviously Mendoza Simpson's second, but it's not, he's not a first round guy by any stretch of the imagination.
- [63:01]
Daniel Jeremiah
I don't have a first true first round grade on him.
- [63:03]
Steve Smith
But yeah, I'm going tailing Green third. I just really believe that. Yep. And then I'm going, I'm probably going Carson Beck after that.
- [63:14]
Daniel Jeremiah
Wow.
- [63:14]
Steve Smith
And then I think it's between Nuss Meyer and Peyton because I think you can make an argument either way there depending on what you're looking for. But I'll go, I'll go Nussmeier
- [63:25]
Daniel Jeremiah
because
- [63:25]
Steve Smith
he's got at least got more starts against SEC competition. I'll just say that. Let's get into Carson Beck really quickly. I get it, man. I get the. Carson Beck is the villain and that's what he is. Let's just, let's be upfront about this, all the off the field stuff, how he left Georgia. You know, some of the comments in the post game rubbed me the wrong way and probably rubbed others the wrong way. He's the villain. And I think that's kind of.
- [63:51]
Daniel Jeremiah
You didn't even mention the Lamborghinis and the cabinet ones.
- [63:54]
Steve Smith
That's your thing, man. But I, I love that you do it. I, I honestly, that's what the people want. But anyways, he's the villain. He is the villain in this story. And then you add in the throwing in the injury to his elbow at the end of the 2024 season. You know, there's some injury things there. Then you throw on top of that that he presses. There's just games where he flat out presses and it turns into a, it can turn into a turnover fest. I mean where he can just start putting the ball up. And I hate that about his game. We're also talking about a guy who's 6 5, 233 pounds with 10 inch hands, who just took Miami to the national championship game, who has 43 starts, most of them at the SEC level, the other ones are at the ACC level. That thick, big frame. I think he's smart. I think he can get through his progressions. I think it was great that he had Malachi, Tony. I don't think he's had the best receivers over the course of his career. I just think you're looking at a guy we're talking about day two. You look at that frame, you look at that experience. I think when he's on a roll, when he's in rhythm and he's confident, he's a pretty damn good quarterback. I'm taking a chance on that kid over a guy who had 13 starts at the FCS level and was playing running back. Like, I just, I, I don't, I, I think that, and I'm not necessarily saying this about you, I think it's happened with me too. Like, I think it's happened, this can happen with evaluators. And you look at him, you're like, this kid just seems like a pain in the ass sometimes. And then you, then there's enough on tape to be to start picking at him and then the injury and all that stuff. But at the end of the day, the experience, the frame, the ability, I think you could do worse than taking Carson back in the second on the day too.
- [65:36]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah, you could do worse. I, I think day two, I, I, I, we've seen some, some links, whether it's the Steelers or some other organizations. I think there's absolutely interest in day two, I think not dissimilar to these other guys. Let's bring them in. Let's see what, let's see what we got and let's, let's try to develop them and if it cost us a third round pick, then great. Here's my comps for him. I think he's, they're shades of and there's somewhere, it's somewhere in between like a Tanner McKee and Aiden O'. Connell. I think that's what you're getting and I think it's going to be kind of the career. He can win you games as a starter when you need to. I'm not relying on that or I'm not, I'm not drafting with the belief that he's going to be the, you know, the next Dak Prescott or something like that or Jalen Hurts No, Purdy. But, but when they drafted those guys, that wasn't the belief either for, you know, so. Or else Dak wouldn't have gone in the fourth, Jalen wouldn't have gone the second or third. Second, second. And, and Purdy wouldn't have been Mr. Irrelevant. So. Yeah, you know, yeah. Throw up the Tucker. Throw up the, the, the graphics here. I do want to mention, as we listed and I mentioned the name, there is love for Baron Morton. And I know we famously love the backup quarterback at Texas Tech and his tools, and now they're going in a different direction through the portal. Anyway, but Baron Morton, because teams follow this stuff, man. When I, I give our audience some, some breadcrumbs and some of this stuff I come up with on my own and create. But I have a lot of conversations with people. 1 of 32 People in the league were making the decisions. When I bring up stuff like the processing speed, the accuracy, short to intermediate, the durability, the extensive college starts and the leadership, competitiveness and toughness. I do it because Baron Morton's going to get drafted ahead of some guys who are, who are just look the part, bigger, stronger, stronger arm, more mobile, all those things. Okay. And Luke Altmeyer might, who I've got at 10, might wind up in the league for a long time. Drew Aller is a guy that's.
- [67:48]
Steve Smith
Day three.
- [67:49]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah. Yes. Seventh round.
- [67:52]
Steve Smith
Yeah.
- [67:52]
Daniel Jeremiah
He's gonna be in my quarterback room for a minute, maybe a few minutes.
- [67:55]
Steve Smith
It might be a coach someday.
- [67:57]
Daniel Jeremiah
Drew Aller, a lot of people, if you're on social media right now and follow the media and, and I'm sure it doesn't come from nowhere. I'm sure there's a team or two out there that really like Drew Aller. And he is big and he looks the part and he's competitive and he won a lot of games at Penn State early on and he fought through and he led them to the College Football Playoff. And while he's sling it, he's athletic and coordinated, but he's not nimble at all. In fact, it's a major concern of mine. He's got a big time. He makes some throws that are beautiful. Go back and watch the summer. Nothing changed. In fact, it got worse. I said at that point in time when the Nationalists, the national scouting list, had him as, I think, the number one quarterback or number two behind Nuss Meyer and had like essentially a first round grade on Drew Eller. He has this visualization thing, man, that is really frustrating and hard to watch because for all those great things that I just told you about him. Big, strong arm, tough, coordinated, competitive, won some games. He's not accurate and he's not accurate. He is when the receivers come back to him or he's looking at it, maybe an incutter, but anytime that receiver is running at post corner, vertical wheel route, even the running back going flaring out of the backfield, he has this visualization thing where he can't find a way to put it in places with touch and lead a receiver. His accuracy on throws to receivers that are running away from him is as bad as I can remember. And so maybe he gets that fixed and I hope for him because he's a good young man. I hope it all works out for him and he's probably going to get drafted a lot higher than where I have him ranked. I think it was Tucker was number nine in that list because there are a lot of people out there that I'm reading, they're saying he's number three ahead of Cole Payton, ahead of Nuss Meyer, ahead of Carson Beck, ahead of Taylor Green. I just don't see it. So that's that class with the caveat that unfortunately maybe, maybe one of those guys in the second, in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds that get drafted that we just talked about, maybe one of those guys is going to be a multi year starter and a guy who becomes the guy for their, the NFL team that takes a swing at him. And this year's interesting and we'll leave it on this. I've never seen a year like this because every year there's hope for next year's class, right? Last year there was hope. Okay, more, yeah. But next year it's Nussmeier and it's, it's, it's Club Nick and we get this Mendoza guy who's kind of lurking and we've got Drew Aller and we've got all these guys, right? But we saw what happened this year and the truth of the matter was that like they were overrated and we were part of that problem in some certain regards. But we'll see. I do think that there's, there's, there's potential for this rounds two through seven to provide more value than in typical years. But even here we've been talking about it for months now and even when Adam Schefter comes out, it becomes a big deal. My buddy Chef Shefty, that team. And forget Shafter, forget everyone else. We literally were talking to general managers in the league, talking about that's the one position you do look ahead to the next year. And it's, it's absolutely factoring into the decisions. I talked to someone who's very knows like locked in. There are two organizations out there and I won't mention them right now, but I think it's very obvious. There are two organizations out there where everything they've done this offseason and maybe three, but two that I know definitively. I know the inner workings is to get ready for next year because they're going to get their quarterback next year. Two, two, definitively, maybe three organizations. Every personnel move they're making right now, starting from last year, has been for the 2027 class. And I'm telling you right now, guys in the league, it's Arch Manning, it's Dante Moore and it's Brandon Sorsby. Those are the top three. And then there are a bunch of guys and I will remind everybody that, that Jaden Daniels was a fit a fourth, a third to fifth and became the number two overall pick. And Cam Ward was a fifth and became the number one overall pick. And every year you can go through and the same thing happens. Well, we got a bunch of guys who are, who are first right now or maybe like you view as late first, early second, from CJ Carr in Notre Dame to Sellers, Julian Sellers at right. What am I saying?
- [72:26]
Steve Smith
Lenora Sellers at South Carolina.
- [72:28]
Daniel Jeremiah
Oh, no. Lenora Sellers and then saying, I'm sorry, I'm losing my mind. So there's a lot of names, CJ Carr, Sellers saying Chambliss, Darian Mensa going from Duke to, to Miami. And we've seen what that, what that's been like. Sam Levitt going from Arizona State.
- [72:50]
Steve Smith
Man, keep an eye on Levitt.
- [72:52]
Daniel Jeremiah
Okay? Maeva Matier, Mester maker, Stockton, Hoover, Imaliava. I'm telling you this. The, the league is very much several teams and certainly two and I think three are making moves because of next year's class. So factor that in. If these quarterbacks start dropping in this year's class, it's because it's fine. We like him. But what if he's there in the fourth? I'll take him. But if I'm going to spend a resource on a quarterback and it's going to be in 2027 because there's too many of those guys. You know, that's the mindset. I think these quarterbacks are going to drop. I think they're going to go later than we expect because of, because of 2027. They'd rather just Get a starter or a nickel corner or a number four receiver or a special teams, whatever it is, a rotational defensive lineman. Then use a second third round pick on a player on a quarterback this year when they, when they know next year that that same second or third round pick is going to get them a lot more value. You. That's the whole deal. That's what actual general managers in the NFL are talking about because I've had these conversations with them over the course of the last month and a half. So I wanted to finish with that because I think it's important and I've always said I want transparency and that's the deal. And that. So when it starts to happen and they start to fall on the quarterbacks in this year's draft when they're sitting there on night two and day three, that's the why behind it. Okay. Anything else Mitch?
- [74:29]
Steve Smith
No, it makes sense. I mean it's a combination of the two things. Right. I mean Mendoza is clearly the. The cleanest prospect at quarterback in this year's class. And you start getting into all these guys that we're arguing about. There's a reason we're arguing is because each one of them has a flaw. It's a, it's who do you prefer the most but it's not who do you prefer in the most in the first round, it's who you perform most on the second and third days of the draft. So it's a combination of two things
- [74:52]
Daniel Jeremiah
and the beauty is as I read that list from Arch to Moore to to source be to car to Sellers to saying the Chambliss, there's a bunch there where if they came out this year it would have been like yeah. Inexperienced to lump them in with all these guys were worried.
- [75:07]
Steve Smith
Yeah.
- [75:08]
Daniel Jeremiah
Now Arch, Arch is going to have the starts and the snaps and Dante is going to have the starts and the snaps and Soursby and Carr is a second year starter and saying is a second year starter and Sellers needs a third year as a starter.
- [75:20]
Steve Smith
Right.
- [75:20]
Daniel Jeremiah
And Chambliss is a second year starter in the FBS and Levitt with another year with Kiffin. It's going to be intriguing man because there's not going to be a lot of flaws with these guys and yes there's going to be two or three of them that something an injury happens or regression or something like that but then you're still left with five or six that now have that additional year and circumstance. Five or six that you put them into this like this bucket of. Yeah. They meet all the all those boxes we're checking off. I'm not pumped to turn the page on this draft because I think there's a ton of talent and I think it's actually a really underrated draft. But I'm telling you, when we turn the page on this draft in June, at some point, it is going to be one of the wildest, like 10 month runs that I've ever experienced in my 26 years of doing this. All leading up to being on the lawn in Washington, D.C. for the 2027 NFL Draft. All right, that's it for today. Match 5 stars even though you are a gigantic pain in my ass. But nobody who's worth their salt likes a yes man in their life and you are certainly not. So five stars.
- [76:31]
Steve Smith
Thanks, man.
- [76:33]
Daniel Jeremiah
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