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The McShay Show
The Case for South Carolina, Alabama’s Lifeline, and Other CFP Rankings Reactions
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- [00:00]
Todd McShay
The McShay show is presented by FanDuel. College Football Saturdays are packed with action and FanDuel is where you can score every game day. Let's face it, November is everything in college football. The playoff picture is starting to become more clear. This is the first year with the 12 team playoff and we have some critical matchups throughout this month. Why we Love fanduel There's so many markets like spreads over unders, national championship futures going to get a part of that and so much more. This app is safe, secure and easy to use. When you win, you'll get paid instantly. Visit FanDuel.com McShay to download America's number one sportsbook. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and help lines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 and older and present in select states. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RGH help.com this.
- [01:02]
Dan Orlovsky
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- [01:57]
Todd McShay
Wow. College the College Football Playoff rankings are in. Miami is out. Ole Miss is out. South Carolina is out. That to me is the jumping off point here. Msch. I mean this is. This is wild. And I let's start with this. Ward Manuel, who's the chair of the College Football Playoff committee, came out and said that essentially, and it was very confusing between he and Reese Davis at first. And I'm glad that Reese made two follow up questions to confirm what he was saying. But essentially the cluster won't change. The cluster being Alabama at 11, Miami at 12, Ole Miss at 13 and South Carolina at 14. And Ward Manuel went on to say teams in conference title games not playing cannot jump any teams not playing. So essentially, if SMU beats Clemson, Alabama gets the last at large bid over Miami. And it also means that Miami, as you're looking at the College Football Playoff rankings here, we'll get to the whole list In a second. But the thing that jumped out the most is that cluster. Right. Talking about Alabama at 11, Miami at 12. And then beyond that, which we don't have here on the. Well, we do down the bottom, the top two out 13, Ole Miss, 14, South Carolina. That won't change based off of any result, anything that happens in the conference championship game. So when you ask the question, why are we doing a instant reaction show, a college Football playoff rankings reaction show tonight and not waiting until next week for the final ones, that's the reason, Mensch, because this is the most important rankings reveal that we've had so far. Okay. Right. This sets the table. Ultimately, the college football playoffs or college football championship games coming up. The conference championship games will decide, you know, who's in, in the ACC in the Big 12. It will, it could affect the rankings to a certain degree. It could, obviously. Boise State vs. UNLV, the Mountain west championship. We know which teams will be in the winner of that game. Simple. The only thing that would. That will change based off of what Ward Manuel said Currently, if SMU ranked number eight beats Clemson ranked 17, then Alabama is in as the 11 seed. The Big 12 winner between 15, Arizona State and 16, Iowa State is in as the 12 seed. Right, right. And that means Boise State, if it wins the Mountain west championship, sitting at that number 10 ranking, will wind up actually being the fourth seed. Which is also intriguing. Right, because the Big 12 champion is. It's the four highest ranked conference champions. So here you look at the, at the first round matchups. You've got Arizona State versus Penn State. That's a 12 versus 5. If this, if this were to be the bracket, Arizona State, the. The highest ranked and favorite in that game would be the 12 seed. They, they come in, they'll play Penn State. 9 versus 8 would be Tennessee versus Ohio State. 11 versus 6 would be Alabama versus Notre Dame. And then finally, Indiana is a 10 seed, would play Georgia, the 7 seed. What are your thoughts, man? What jumps out at you first? Sorry it took a while there, but there was a lot to unpack.
- [05:41]
Louis Riddick
Yeah, definitely. If I'm South Carolina, I'm furious. And I think there's a strong argument for taking Alabama over South Carolina, or at least there is an argument. But if I'm South Carolina, I'm furious. And I'm looking at that and saying head to head, regardless of when you play, regardless how close it is, I mean, they lost to Alabama by two at Alabama, it doesn't matter where you play. Head to head is more important than how you finish your season and more importantly to me, whether or not you have a bad loss. Alabama lost to Oklahoma by 21 a couple weeks ago. They lost to Vanderbilt this year, Ole Miss, who's ranked ahead of them too, which I don't understand. I, I know they had some big wins, but they've also had some tough losses too, Florida and Kentucky. So, and you look at the South Carolina, you get into the Devils and the details, right? You look at that loss to LSU and their quarterback doesn't play the second half and they lose a tough one. There's some penalties in that game. And again, it's earlier in the year if we're trying to get the tick the guys, the teams that are, and I don't want to get into the hottest teams, but if we have similar resumes and you're looking at these, at these teams and you're saying to yourself, we don't have those bad losses, we've played really well down the stretch. I think South. South Carolina is the team with the biggest beef right now of not being in.
- [06:56]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I mean, you look there at the. Going off a strength of schedule, right? Strength of schedule, okay, Alabama's 10 or, sorry, strength of record, Alabama's 10. South Carolina is 11. Strength of schedule, South Carolina is 15, Alabama 16. So it's almost a wash between those two. Here, here's what. Well, let's first address what Ward Manuel said on why Alabama over Miami. Okay. Which I think is interesting because let's face it, let's just call it what it is, whether it's brand or not, whether it's the one Alabama in or not, what they leaned on and maybe what they decided upon, but what they leaned on and what their, their easy out is. And everyone knew all the talk the last couple days was if it's Alabama, they will absolutely lean on head to head. Okay? And they very clearly did. And they protected themselves too, if you will, by putting Ole Miss ahead of South Carolina. And yeah, I get it. There was a significant difference in, in that, in that game in terms of the result. So, so if they were going to go with that, they had to lean into it. Okay? But when, when Ward was answering why Alabama over Miami, he said it really came down to Alabama was 3 and 1 versus current top 25 teams. Miami was 01, Alabama was 6 and 1 versus 500 teams, teams that were over 500. Miami was 4 and 2. So, yeah, I get it. I don't, I don't have a problem at all with Alabama over Miami.
- [08:35]
Louis Riddick
I already said no, no, no problem whatsoever.
- [08:38]
Todd McShay
Our rankings reveal show the other night or sorry, in our Saturday night reaction show to all the games. I said I just don't know how in, in good conscience the committee can put that Miami defense in the College Football Playoff. Well, they, they've, they've ruled. It's been decided that defense does not deserve and will not be in the College Football Playoff. As much as both you and I and every talent evaluator out there wants to see Cam Ward and some of those other prospects on the offensive side for Miami play against better competition in a College Football Playoff game or, or multiple. Here's what I tweeted out the other day though, because I sat down and I thought about it. I thought it would truly come down to South Carolina vs Alabama for that spot that Alabama has secured the number, number 11 spot which gets them in if SMU takes care of business. Against Clemson. I said working in Bama's favor, they do have a two point head to head win over the Gamecocks. They also, as I just mentioned, have a slight edge in this, the strength of record. But in South Carolina's favor, they only lost to Bama by two points at Tuscaloosa. Right. And as FanDuel will tell you, typically you give three points to teams who for the home field advantage for whatever. Okay. They also were three, three touchdown dog in that game and it was eight weeks ago.
- [10:13]
Louis Riddick
Correct.
- [10:13]
Todd McShay
Then they have the slight edge and strength of schedule as we also just mentioned, plus no ugly losses for, for South Carolina. All of their losses if you look at it, were against respectable teams. LSU being the worst of it. When it's all said and done. Excuse me. And, but, but we'll get to that game in a second. But against LSU and Alabama it was by a combined five points. They didn't have the ugly losses like Alabama had. They lost a Vandy. You know, they lost to Vandy and more, much more importantly, and more recently, they got blown out by OKLAHOMA.
- [10:50]
Louis Riddick
Blown out 21 points.
- [10:52]
Todd McShay
The other thing is, and I was Texting with Sean McDonough today, actually earlier I think this morning we were going back and forth on just different thoughts. He wasn't pushing for one way or the other. I'm not here to get Sean. He truly wasn't. We were just kind of going through all the factors and, and I said, and I said in the tweet that, you know, quarterback Sellers got injured in that game and also remember the poor officiating. Call it what I mean, it is what it is. But but that should not have been an LSU win. Okay. But he, he made the point. They were hammering LSU17 to nothing when Lenora Sellers got injured. It wasn't just like it was a tight game and they lost him and they were with him without. They were up 17, nothing when sellers got injured. If he doesn't get hurt, they beat LSU and we're not even having a conversation. They're in the top 10. Two losses. They're in the top 10.
- [11:47]
Louis Riddick
When you talk about Alabama versus Miami and the top 25 teams. They've beaten three top 25 teams in the last five weeks. South Carolina has dismantled A M, they beat Missouri and they beat Clemson.
- [11:59]
Todd McShay
But I want to go back to that for a second and can we pull up. I know and we'll, we'll touch on this a couple of times. Can we pull up the graphic about the. What the committee's looking at? And I want to remind everyone last year of fsu. So here's the ranking criteria and I'm not going to read every word but championships won, strength of schedule, head to head competition which obviously played a major factor in this comparative outcomes of common opponents. And then here's the other thing. And look no further than FSU last year. Okay. Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players. Right. It says. Or coaches. And it goes on to other things. Well, what about the unavailability of Lenora Sellers in that one game that would have made them a two loss team had he played the rest of the game when they were up 17. Nothing.
- [12:48]
Louis Riddick
Exactly.
- [12:49]
Todd McShay
I mean so throw out the officiating. Throw out the officiating. Throw out the fact that they're hot. Throw out that they didn't have a blowout lost to Oklahoma. If that is part of. It's literally in the criteria that is, that is handed out to every committee member and they're saying that the players who are available on the unavailability of players. Lenora Sellers didn't play that the rest of that game. They were up 17. Nothing. I just, I don't, I mean I get it. I know the why and I see the, the reason that they leaned on with the head to head. But you can't tell me this team that's won six straight and two and two of their last three outings were wins over ranked opponents. I just, it's on, you know, I, I don't know Shane Beamer better than I know Caitlin DeBoer or any of these other. This isn't a personal thing. I promise no. And I always admit if I know someone better, like I'm always unbiased on everything. But I'll. I'll mention it if, if, you know, just to be transparent. But Shane's done a hell of a job. They turned this thing around. They battled through those three losses and they bounce back. They've got one of the hottest, best quarterbacks in the country and they've got a damn good defense. And I'm going to watch. And I know it's because of the. It's because of how this whole thing works with the conference, but I'm going to watch SMU and Arizona State and Boise State in Indiana play in the College Football Playoff. And I'm not going to watch one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country who's taken over games. 350 plus yards. You called him Superman. Mensch against Missouri.
- [14:34]
Louis Riddick
Yeah. Watch the end of the Missouri game and tell me that you don't want that kid in the playoff.
- [14:39]
Todd McShay
It just. It.
- [14:40]
Louis Riddick
I don't know why Miami's even in the conversation either. I don't understand why. Again, it's not overly important. I guess it came down to Alabama versus the other three teams, but I don't understand why Miami's in the conversation, to be honest with you. You don't lose to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. You don't lose two of your last three games, get knocked out of the ACC championship game, and somehow are still in the mix with that defense. Explain it to me. I don't get it. And some of it's.
- [15:05]
Todd McShay
It's.
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Louis Riddick
It's. Maybe they're so rigid in what their rankings were two weeks ago or three weeks ago or four weeks ago, and they don't want to drop these teams too much, but Miami should be. Sorry, Miami's not in the conversation as far as I'm concerned. I. I don't think Ole Miss really is either.
- [15:18]
Todd McShay
But I think this committee, I mean, look at it, right? I think this committee is obsessed with wins and losses, right? And I don't think it's its job. I, I don't think that that's the criteria. I don't think that. That obviously it factors in, but when you've got Indiana playing that schedule at 11 and 1, they were obsessed with the WH. I mean, Miami was 10 and 2, so. But look at the schedule Miami played. So. So you're telling me Miami plays Ole Miss schedule or South Carolina schedule?
- [15:56]
Louis Riddick
Right.
- [15:57]
Todd McShay
You're telling me you don't know that, Todd.
- [16:00]
Louis Riddick
But yeah, you know what? We have A pretty good get. A pretty good idea. We have a pretty good idea that if Ole Miss or South Carolina played that Indiana schedule, they'd have a one loss team, maybe. Maybe a one loss team and they'd have a better loss to Ohio State. I'm sorry, I just have a hard time believing that's not true.
- [16:18]
Todd McShay
Boise State 11 and one would be. You're saying Boise State's a better team than Alabama because they get 11 wins. Right. What's the strength of schedule? I don't know if. Can we pull that up? The strength of schedule for Indiana and for Boise State.
- [16:36]
Louis Riddick
65 for Indiana.
- [16:39]
Todd McShay
65. 86 for Boise State.
- [16:44]
Louis Riddick
Yep.
- [16:45]
Todd McShay
16 for Alabama, 15 for South Carolina. Do you hear the numbers difference there? I get it. Boise State's 11 and 1. But at some point the committee's got to like. And the strength of record, typically, I believe the strength of record, all these numbers and analytics and all the data points and all this other. The strength of records, the one, the one that I actually believe is reasonable because it factors in. Yes, what your record was, but the opponents you played and how you played those opponents. Okay, and let's throw that graphic back up one more time. So when we're talking strength of record, we've got South Carolina with the 11th strength of record. We've got Alabama with the 10th strength of record. But you've got Boise State with 13th strength of record. That factors everything in. Ole miss with the 18th strength of record. Indiana, I don't know how their strength of record is eight. I'm looking at SMU. How many wins versus top 25 teams? None. How many wins for Indiana? Top 25. None. How many wins for Miami? Top 25? None. Yet they're all ahead of South Carolina and even Ole Miss because of that third loss. Because of that third loss. And again, that third loss for South Carolina was with Lenora Sellers out injured when they were up 17. Nothing. This wouldn't be a conversation. It wouldn't be a conversation. I'm telling you, they would be. South Carolina would be at 8. They would be at 8 if they were 10 and 2. Here's our rankings and I know most people are. The majority of our. Our viewers and audience are. Are listening on podcasts and we appreciate all of you. I'm sorry I welcome into the McShay show by the way. Good to have you welcome in. We. I didn't even say hello basically but and we appreciate everyone here and please subscribe and, and let a friend know and, and like and all the things that will help us continue this. The little engine that could. But we do have our, our rankings for whatever it's worth and it's not worth anything at this point. But, but at the top I've got Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame. Manchester's got the same teams, just Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Notre Dame. Then it's kind of another cluster of Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee and mention got the same Penn State, Tennessee, Ohio State. So it's the same through the top seven, I believe then we both had. And we didn't, we didn't talk to each other. No, we both had South Carolina 8, Alabama 9, Ole Miss 10. You know why? Because they're better football teams. Honest to God, we didn't discuss. It's not group think. Yeah, we both come from an NFL draft angle to a certain degree. But also factoring in wins and losses, when they won, how they won, how hot the team is down the stretch. The hottest team arguably in the country right now, I would say is South Carolina, outside of maybe Oregon. And we had them all ahead of smu, Indiana, Boise State, Miami and all the other teams. So I mean where do we go from here? Well, I mean let's go through the ranking. So again we're going to reset as if it's the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone joining live tonight. It's, it's 8:24pm Eastern. We're just kind of, you know, the ranking show was. Did you notice how squeezed that ranking show was on espn usually an hour and they were, they were racing through that. That, that does, that needs to be an hour long show, especially the most important one of the year. But they had to kick to a basketball game. But so let's slow things down now, now that we'll gain some composure, reset things. Let's look at the top of the, of the rankings. Oregon at one, Texas at two. Okay. These are the actual college Football playoff rankings. Penn State at 3. We can get into that in a minute. But I guess understandable. But you and I both, I believe had Georgia up there. Yes. Notre Dame four, then Georgia five. Ohio State only falls to number six, which I think was fair. And I get here's, let's just start there and Tennessee at seven. So it's still the same cluster, the top seven teams as your rankings, my rankings and the only ones that matter, the College Football Playoff rankings by the committee. But for whatever it's worth, I get the 10 and 2. And this is another example. Like look, it's 12 and O, OR and 11 and 111 and 111 and 1, the next three, and then a bunch of 10 and twos, and then they get into teams that didn't play the schedule and go back to 11 and 1. So what I, when I look at this, like, I get that Ohio State has two losses and I get the most recent one was abysmal. But I also have an understanding that, that it's a team that Ohio State just simply like they, they can't beat at this point. But I don't think that's representative of what Ohio State is as a football team heading into the College Football Playoff. Now, is there going to be some shrapnel? Is that going to, is that going, going to have some lingering effects? We'll see. But time heals all wounds. There's plenty of time. They don't play in a college football, they don't play in a conference championship game. They've got time and it's either going to infect what just happened is either going to infect the locker room and get in the minds of these 18 to 22 year olds, generally speaking, or it's going to galvanize this Ohio State team. But at the end of the day, there's plenty of time between now and that first College Football playoff game for them to, to be ready and to play at the level that we expect. But my point in this is, and it doesn't truly matter because the conference champion is going to wind up, you know, having that, that number one spot likely, or maybe number two if it's Penny. But how can we say if we're going to go head to head, right, and put Alabama ahead of ole, Ole Miss and Ole Miss ahead of South Carolina there. And I get it, they all have nine and three records. But we saw Ohio State, Penn State, and quite frankly, it was, it was a more lopsided game than the, than the final score would indicate. I, I guess I'm not surprised at all. But to me, like, Ohio State's the better football team and we saw it on the field, right?
- [23:32]
Louis Riddick
Are we checking box scores? Are we actually looking at these performances? And I don't mean to be rude, but like, are we checking the box scores? Are we looking at how that game unfolded? Because we all know that Will Howard fumbling at the goal line. I mean, there was a couple plays in that game where, I mean, Ohio State could easily have blown the doors off of Penn State. Can I say one thing, though, that I don't understand? And it's, you know, just while we're on Ohio State how are they ranked ahead of Tennessee? Tell me, what's a worst loss to Arkansas earlier in the year or to Michigan last week? I think Ohio State losing to Michigan is a far worse loss than Tennessee losing Arkansas because I think it matters when it happens. I think that that was.
- [24:11]
Todd McShay
I don't disagree with that.
- [24:12]
Louis Riddick
For 10, it was an early blip for Tennessee, but all of a sudden Michigan, they lose to a Michigan team that they had no business losing to at home. And your wins, you look at their wins and you're. It's a Penn State team that we still have a lot of questions about. And it's an Indiana team that we quite frankly feel has had an incredible year and congratulations to them, but maybe doesn't belong where they are in the rankings right now considering their strength of schedule and what we've seen on tape and all of those things combined. So how is Tennessee behind Ohio State? And maybe it doesn't matter in terms of who's getting in, but it will matter in terms of seating.
- [24:47]
Todd McShay
Yeah. And quite honestly, Georgia. Let's just, I mean, Georgia's strength of schedule, now that I'm looking at this graphic, I love this graphic, by the way, where the things that are important to me, three of the top things, strength of schedule, strength of record. As I already told you, a big, big believer in that. Helping to guide. Not as the, not as the, you know, the albeit. But helping to guide. Excuse me, but if we're looking and having the conversation of what the goal is and the goal is to put the best teams in the tournament, but also to rank the best teams accordingly. George has got the number three strength of schedule in the country.
- [25:28]
Louis Riddick
Yep.
- [25:29]
Todd McShay
Number two, strength of record, meaning it factored in like, you know, how, who they played, how they played them throughout the year. Oregon, strength of schedule, 60. And they're under. They're undefeated. So like leave them out of the argument. But Texas is 32, don't have a win over a top 25 team. Georgia has wins over number two, Texas. I thought head to Head was critical. I, to me, if we're just, if we're ranking the best teams in the country and head to head's a big factor in this thing as we showed that with, with the South Carolina, with the South Carolina, Ole Miss, Alabama cluster. Georgia beat Texas and they beat him badly. I think 30 to 15 was the final in that game they beat. They dismantled all three of those wins.
- [26:15]
Louis Riddick
Were by two scores or more. I mean, they handled Clemson by 31. They beat Georgia by 15 and they beat Tennessee by 14.
- [26:23]
Todd McShay
So they're the number two strength of schedule in the entire country.
- [26:27]
Louis Riddick
And it wasn't like, those are close games. Yeah.
- [26:29]
Todd McShay
Or number three in the. Scott. In the entire country. Number two strength of record, I think it was. And so why isn't Georgia sitting at two, even though it's one loss? I mean, we'll find out. It does. It doesn't matter. But I'm just. I'm trying to get inside the mindset of. Of these teams. I mean, of the committee and what they're. What they're deciding.
- [26:54]
Louis Riddick
You know, I just think that we. And listen, I know there's a lot of people out there who don't like this, but the conference winners, I think there's got to be something. There's not enough spots to be giving away a spot to Boise State, you know, no offense. Or to the Big 12 team this year. I think, you know, it's nice to have these smaller schools or these smaller programs. The, you know, the underdogs get in and see what they can do. But, you know, the kids from South Carolina want to play for a championship, too. And I know people are like, oh, the sec. You guys love the sec. I don't love the sec. It's just a better football. It's a better football conference. Sorry. They just play better football. They have better teams, they have better athletes. It's. It's top to bottom.
- [27:35]
Todd McShay
Find me an NFL scout. Find me an NFL scout. And I. I value NFL scouts opinions over. Over. Certainly over every single member of that college football committee, with all due respect.
- [27:48]
Louis Riddick
Right.
- [27:49]
Todd McShay
And find me an NFL scout that would say in. In most years. I mean, there have been years where the Big Ten has been closer. There's been years of the ACC has been closer. Find me as an NFL scout who literally is on the trail evaluating these teams, you know, these. These players and. And evaluating talent. And I get it. There's some freshmen that aren't eligible and some sophomores who aren't eligible, but they're also keeping a look on those. Those guys. I've never talked to an NFL scout who is literally spending four months on the road and has more stories and backgrounds and. And has been to practices and watch every tape there is to watch and can recite plays from, like, the second week of the season. Play 48, like, their. Their catalog and their memory and all. I've never talked to anyone in the NFL that's a talent evaluator who's ever said anything but the SEC is the most talented. And why is that important because when you're playing that talent. And yes, the SEC might not be as great at the top this year, maybe as it has been in mother years. But when you're playing that level of talent week in and week out, there's going to be some carnage and it wears on you. And like, when you, you're done playing Georgia, you got to go play Texas. When you're done playing Texas, you got to go play Ole Miss. When you're done playing Ole Miss, you got to go play a shitty Florida team that all of a sudden might be one of the 10 best teams in the country right now. You know what I mean? So like it's the week in, week out thing that is different in the SEC than it is everywhere else. It's not just like, not every game is played in a vacuum. You know, you don't get one shot. It's, it's, it's the over, you know, 12 weeks, 13 weeks. It's the body of work.
- [29:36]
Louis Riddick
And all, not all losses and are created equal. And I'm sorry, like I. Indiana's had a heck of a year, man. Congratulations. That's great. But somehow they are more deserving of South Carolina because they had a schedule that was. I mean, sorry. Way easier.
- [29:52]
Todd McShay
Yeah. The only team in the no wins against top 25, 65, 65th ranked strength of schedule. And they could have lost the. I mean the Ohio State. I don't even remember what the final was. It was ugly. It was ugly. It was lopsided. One team did not belong on this, on the field that day outside of, outside of the first drive. And they, and they hung around. I thought towards the end of the first quarter I was like, we might have a fight on our hands, but the final three quarters, it was just, it was so lopsided. So. But that's what we have. It's what we have.
- [30:34]
Louis Riddick
We have now. Yeah. And it's better than what we had. You know, it's like, you know, you guys got this nice gift and this and I, and I love the new format. It's better than the four teams. Trust me.
- [30:46]
Todd McShay
Throw that back up. I want to look at. I'm glad you just mentioned that. It is better than what we have. And I'm right. But I just. So that would be. So essentially it would be interesting. I'm just going back if it was last year, right. And we're just picking four, it would be.
- [31:02]
Louis Riddick
Or winner of order.
- [31:05]
Todd McShay
Well, Georgia, but George is playing in the conference championship. So the winner of the SEC is in Right. The winner of the Big Ten is in Texas versus, I mean Oregon versus Penn State. Right.
- [31:20]
Louis Riddick
Yeah.
- [31:20]
Todd McShay
So that would be two spot. Notre Dame would be in. And then what would, what would be fascinating is could Georgia lose that SEC championship game close and still get in? You know, Oregon or Oregon loses close to Penn State and still gets it. But Ohio State would be out, obviously. Tennessee would be out and everyone below them would be out. So yeah, it's better. There's no, I mean there's no question. It was always going to be better. We get 12 teams. It was always going to be better. But I'll tell you one thing, if we start just looking at it and I'm glad we just pulled up the, the, the bracket projection, get rid of the top four conference champions claiming the top four seeds. It's.
- [32:07]
Louis Riddick
Yeah, that has to change.
- [32:09]
Todd McShay
I get it. Like on, on paper, like months ago when this was all decided, it sounded like, let's reward those conferences. Get out of here, man. Get out of here. I agree. It's crazy.
- [32:21]
Louis Riddick
Oregon should be the one getting a buy.
- [32:24]
Todd McShay
Texas should be the two seed. Penn State should be the three seed. Notre Dame should be the four seed. If the, if the seeding was done today and obviously conference championship games can, can adjust that. But the top four teams in the rankings should be the top four seeds. So Boise stage is getting a buy. SMU's getting a buy. And Penn State, which is sitting at number three that the committee loves. Fanduel loves. We'll get to them later. Fanduel. We're in a. We're in a fight right now. I love FanDuel. Kidding me. But. But everyone loves Penn State. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big roas man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn you'll be able to reach people who do. Get a hundred dollar credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com campaign to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com campaign. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn the place to be. To be.
- [33:36]
Dan Orlovsky
This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. There's a lot to be thankful for this season. For one, I am thankful. You can get NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV right now for only $209. That's exactly what you need as we head right into the playoffs. You can invite your friends over maybe you have a multi view. You could have four different games, one for you, one each for the three other friends you invite. You can. You can change the games around as soon as a game the outcome becomes pretty certain. Dump that game. But in another one I've become the multi view master. The moment one of the games is losing steam, I'm ready to move right in and move it for another one. Build your own multiview. One of my favorite words. Thank yourself. This holiday season get NFL Sunday ticket for the rest of the NFL regular season for just $209. Sign up now@YouTube.com BS Terms and Embargoes apply. Device and content restrictions apply. No cancellations.
- [34:34]
Todd McShay
The McShay show is brought to you by FanDuel. Keep your college football season going with a win on FanDuel because right now new customers can kick off the season with 150 bucks in bonus bets. Just place any five dollar bet and you'll get 150 bucks in bonus bets if you win. Use your bets on spreads, live bets, overs, unders, and so much more. Just visit FanDuel.com McShay to download America's number one sports book. Must be 21 or older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in D.C. first online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit RG Help. Sorry, I'm on a heater tonight. No, would you, would you agree with that? First of all, second of all. Okay, second of all, anything else you would change? It's.
- [35:40]
Louis Riddick
Listen, it's a, it's a power two conference football college football landscape at this point. Sorry, it is, there's just, it's the, it is the SEC and then it's the Big ten and then it's, it's everyone else. So what do you do about that? I don't know. You could be creative and say that the ACC champion, regular season champion, has to play the Big 12 champion for a spot and that way you're not taking up two spots with those teams. Maybe you say that if you're a, you know, to get that, that the group of five team in you have to be in a certain ranking. You have to be in the top 10. You have to be in the whatever to get in. I just, I think you gotta stop penalizing team like South Carolina's getting hurt for the schedule they played I'm sorry. I mean, I don't. And so if that's a problem for you or if that's a problem for me, then let's find ways to fix that. Let's find ways to get a South Carolina team like this, South Carolina team into the playoff. Is it at going to 14 teams? I don't know. I don't know. I get the feeling to give us.
- [36:40]
Todd McShay
14 this year would be pretty sweet.
- [36:43]
Louis Riddick
Yeah, it would be. Right.
- [36:46]
Todd McShay
But South Carolina still wouldn't be in.
- [36:50]
Louis Riddick
I know. That's, that's, I mean, that's off right now.
- [36:52]
Todd McShay
I mean, I mean, you think I'm, you think I'm hot, right? Right now. Can you imagine?
- [36:56]
Louis Riddick
Right. Yeah. And then like, so let's get into this a little bit too. SMU loses to Clemson and a Clemson team who everyone who's ever watched the show knows how I feel about is in. And now do you take SMU over Alabama?
- [37:14]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I, my understanding from what, what Ward Manuel was saying, the chair of the College Football Playoff committee, is that things are basically kind of set. Okay. Right now. Now, he didn't say this specifically, but I, and I don't want to put words in this mouth. I, I, I kind of got the sense that like these, this is how they view teams. Right. Going.
- [37:42]
Louis Riddick
Right.
- [37:42]
Todd McShay
And the College Football Playoff is going to allow, or the conference championship games are going to allow. Obviously, we're going to get a winner of the Mountain West. We're going to get our winner of the acc, which by the way, is easily the most important game of the conference championship games. And we'll be coming, coming to you live again Saturday night. That's going to be a fun one. We'll have all the answers. Then we'll break down all of those games. We'll start to look forward to what the matchups could be. That's gonna be an awesome show right after the, I think is the ACC championship. The latest game. Is that the prime time game?
- [38:16]
Louis Riddick
I'll check right now.
- [38:17]
Todd McShay
All right, so, but whatever the prime time game is, we'll be there Saturday night. But the ace will be the, the acc.
- [38:23]
Louis Riddick
And the, that's awesome. Big Ten and the ACC game are at the same time, both 8 o'clock games.
- [38:29]
Todd McShay
So right when those games are over, right around 11:30pm Eastern time, we'll be live on YouTube. Please come join us. That'll be a fun show, kind of wrap up the season, if you will, before we get ready for the college football, you know, playoff games. But the ACC game is the Most important, because that's going to decide. I can see Clemson beating smu, man, so could I. Right?
- [38:56]
Louis Riddick
Yeah.
- [38:57]
Todd McShay
And then Alabama's out.
- [39:00]
Louis Riddick
Well, here's what I don't understand. So if Clemson, oh man, if Clemson hangs, you know, it's 42 to 14.
- [39:08]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [39:09]
Louis Riddick
You keep. Yes.
- [39:10]
Todd McShay
Glad you brought me back. That was my point. I, I get the strong sense that if in a close game like that, they're not going to penalize. If it's a close game, they're not going to pen for having to play another game. But if they get. Unless what was SMU's strength of schedule? I think if they get undressed by a quality opponent, I think at that point it would change the committee's opinion and you'd look at them and say, all right, well they are a two loss team even though it's with one more game there. And SMU 75th ranked strength of schedule versus Bama with the 16th ranked strength of schedule. So that's a huge difference. Right. Right now that strength of schedule will improve because they're playing Clemson which is their only ranked team. They've not beaten a team ranked in the top 25. So I can. Their losses to BYU if Clemson puts it on SMU. I could see SMU falling out. I could see that the window was open for that. But I, I truly believe because they're, they're ranked so high at number eight. I think the committee kind of planted its flag in SMU here. You know the sm they, if they didn't believe in smu, they could have easily. Because look at that cluster they're in. SMU 8, Indiana 9, Boise State 10. All 11 and 1 teams all with shitty strengths of schedule. Boise State's 86, Indiana 65, SMU 75. And the strength of schedule for Indiana is, is better 10 spots better at 65 than SMU 75. So it would have been easy for the committee to put Indiana at 8, but they didn't. They put SMU at 8. So my point in all of this, and I think you read the tea leaves here, SMU would have to get undressed in order to not be in the College Football playoff.
- [41:09]
Louis Riddick
Yeah.
- [41:10]
Todd McShay
And SMU in is favored by Fanduel with just chimed in SM youth favor by two and a half over Clemson. The ACC championship game. I think that's a reasonable number.
- [41:21]
Louis Riddick
I think that's fair. Yeah. Let me ask you this. So we can't have any movement between 11 and 14 because now my brain is, is now it's. You Know, spinning.
- [41:29]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [41:31]
Louis Riddick
If Georgia gets blown out by Texas and Clemson blows out SMU, SC sitting there saying, I gotta. We gotta win over that. That Clemson team that just smoked your number eight team in the country and Alabama and Ole Miss. Their wins over Georgia maybe don't look so good after they had an eight overtime win over Georgia Tech and had two other losses on the year. And, you know, the. And, you know, maybe they weren't as good as we thought. So does that affect the way they look at those wins and losses or. It's just. It's in the barn, it's over. My understanding is it's in the barn, it's over.
- [42:03]
Todd McShay
It's in the. I mean, Ward. That's why I started this entire show. Ward manual came out and flat out said it.
- [42:11]
Louis Riddick
Can you imagine if Clemson gets in and South Carolina sitting there like, yeah, yeah.
- [42:16]
Todd McShay
What are we gonna do? Clemson's in. We just beat them. Yeah, in. In Death Valley, right? Clemson's in. Yeah. Take the other team. Not us. Not us. We just beat them last week. Clemson's in.
- [42:31]
Louis Riddick
Yeah, right.
- [42:32]
Todd McShay
Oh, I. This is wild. All right. I mean, let's look at the matchups for a minute.
- [42:40]
Louis Riddick
Yeah. I don't hate Alabama. Notre Dame, by the way.
- [42:47]
Todd McShay
No, I like that. It's.
- [42:49]
Louis Riddick
It's all on fall.
- [42:51]
Todd McShay
It's funny how. How angry. How angry we are about certain things. And then you look at the matchups and you're like, all right, interesting.
- [42:57]
Louis Riddick
Yeah. Tennessee Ohio at Ohio State. That one's a good one.
- [43:00]
Todd McShay
That's a great matchup, man. Yeah, that's a great matchup. Tennessee going after the cold weather. It's not that. It's not like they're coming from Florida, but going from the cold, you know, the sec, up to Columbus, I mean, it's probably gonna be snowing. You know what I mean? It's just gonna be a different environment. Yeah, that'll be an awesome game. I'd like to. I'd like to see. You know what I'd love to see in that game? Quin. Sean Judkins, Travion Henderson versus that defensive front, right? Yeah, right.
- [43:33]
Louis Riddick
Donovan Jackson against James Pierce.
- [43:36]
Todd McShay
Yeah. You talk about NFL matchups. Let's do some NFL matchups here. Yeah. A guard, probably a second round, day two guard who's kicked out to left tackle going up against a speedster in Pierce. And they get. They're. They're like 14 deep on that defensive line. Pierce's sack numbers haven't been great. People keep dropping him and all that. Like, I Get it? He's too probably gonna be 250 at the combine. 245. 250. But he's explosive and his pressure percentage, which matters, especially when you're playing on that deep of the defensive line, you're not out in the field as much as a lot of these other guys, that matters. So I would love to see that matchup, but I also would like to see how he holds up versus the run. Because, you know, that Ohio State team, we saw like hell or hot water. We're running the football. Even if it's against the best defensive tackle tandem in the, in the nation, and we got a patchwork offensive line, we're still going to run the football. Yeah, I would love to see that matchup. I, I, Penn State, Arizona State. I kind of want to see that matchup because I don't think Penn State's as great as everyone thinks. I don't. I'm not saying Arizona State would beat Penn State, but I, I think Arizona State might, Might make that tricky.
- [44:55]
Louis Riddick
By the way, Penn State get in the five seed. Playing Boise State in the quarterfinals is so on brand for them. You know, they'll win those two games, get in the semifinals, then they'll, we'll, we'll really see.
- [45:06]
Todd McShay
Yeah, that's a good point. Penn State doesn't, doesn't lose the teams they should be. That's the one thing I, I can, you can count on that or James Franklin team. And if we've got to give credit where it's due, he recruits well, not at the Elite, but just a notch below. And he wins almost. I mean, damn near every game that they should win. They win, right. By the way, George, Georgia, Indiana. I don't know if our fanduel guys are watching live right now. I'd love to know that spread.
- [45:37]
Louis Riddick
Yeah.
- [45:37]
Todd McShay
Georgia, India, that's got, that would have to be. Well, take a guess.
- [45:40]
Louis Riddick
Take a guess.
- [45:43]
Todd McShay
Ten and a half.
- [45:44]
Louis Riddick
Yep.
- [45:46]
Todd McShay
You're kinder than me. I'm gonna go 13.
- [45:49]
Louis Riddick
Wouldn't surprise me.
- [45:50]
Todd McShay
I'm gonna go 13.
- [45:52]
Louis Riddick
Would not surprise me.
- [45:53]
Todd McShay
That would be the worst game, worst matchup. Even though it's a 10 versus 7. That would be the worst matchup. Right then Alabama, Notre Dame. Yeah, man, that would, that would help me. That would help answer a lot of questions. I don't know if Notre Dame can rush the passer at an elite level. I think their secondary is not quite as good. We talked about this. Louisville and usc, two teams that can throw the, throw the football. That would be an interesting Matchup. But I do think their run defense is exceptional. I think their offensive line has played really well. I think their run game is as good as any as any team maybe in the country, like right up there with the best. But I don't think they have the weapons on the outside offensively to really threaten Alabama. And I think that's. You've got to have weapons on the outside to, to stretch. You don't have to. But typically teams that have had weapons on the outside stress Alabama's defense more.
- [46:48]
Louis Riddick
Yeah. I want to see Alabama quarterback Jalen Milro versus Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts. Watts has got five picks this year. Man, he's a thief. That would be a great matchup. And then to watch the Notre Dame running game with Leonard in love versus those Alabama linebackers, man, you know, both sides of the ball are going to have great matchups in that game.
- [47:12]
Todd McShay
Yeah. I'm just looking at this. You'd rather, you'd rather be in the. I'll call it the north at the top of this bracket.
- [47:23]
Louis Riddick
Yes.
- [47:23]
Todd McShay
You know what I mean?
- [47:25]
Louis Riddick
Yeah. I mean, look at that now. You got to go through Alabama. You got Alabama, Georgia and Texas.
- [47:30]
Todd McShay
Right.
- [47:31]
Louis Riddick
And Notre Dame is a good team. Yeah.
- [47:34]
Todd McShay
Versus Oregon is Oregon's toughest game, quite honestly. Would be the. Its first game after the buy against the winner of Tennessee. Ohio State.
- [47:45]
Louis Riddick
Yeah.
- [47:46]
Todd McShay
Their rematch against Ohio State or they're playing a dangerous Tennessee team and then Boise State is going to get knocked off in the first game because of the terrible seating situation that we have in the first year of this 12 team college football playoff. But it would be Penn State and then it'll be Penn's probably. I mean, a good chance. It could be a rematch of the, of the Big Ten championship. Could be two rematches in that bracket. If this is how it plays out. It could be Ohio State vs Oregon. Rematch of earlier in the year. That great game. Tough finish for Will Howard. Could be a rematch of that. And then. And then the semifinals could be a rematch of Oregon versus Penn State. It's actually very. It's likely that that would be the scenario.
- [48:29]
Louis Riddick
Yeah.
- [48:31]
Todd McShay
We got some Todd's odds. Let's circle back real quickly to South Carolina. Fanduel likes to make fun of me. The hypothetical odds I'm always asking for. I burn. Ah, casino noise. I love it. This surprised me. I mean, I'm. I'm pounding the table for South Carolina. Right. And I thought the folks at Fanduel would back me here. They don't have the same love with. They don't here are the odds and I specifically want to know South Carolina versus some of these other teams versus Alabama Bama minus four. Understandable. Right?
- [49:12]
Louis Riddick
Right.
- [49:13]
Todd McShay
I think South Carolina is a better team. I think they deserve to be in all those things. But I can, I can I, I could live with that. Penn State minus six and a half. FanDuel loves Penn State.
- [49:27]
Louis Riddick
They do.
- [49:28]
Todd McShay
Six and a half seems rich for me. I'd be on South Carolina all day. Here's what really pissed me off Mensch. Two games really, really pissed me off. And I'll go through their. Their major favorites. Eight and a half against Boise State. Favorite against Arizona State five and a half. What pissed me off was Indiana South Carolina pick an smu South Carolina pick.
- [49:56]
Louis Riddick
I don't get it.
- [49:57]
Todd McShay
Yeah, that maybe we're seeing something wrong. I don't know.
- [50:01]
Louis Riddick
I don't get it.
- [50:05]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I don't either.
- [50:06]
Louis Riddick
What's the Penn State love about too? By the way, before we came on, Dan was like what are we missing? And I was like, I don't know, man. I mean they're talented, they have talent, but they've always had talent. I just haven't seen the difference in this team versus other teams.
- [50:18]
Todd McShay
So yeah, the problem is you're right. We just looked at the bracket. They're. They're gonna win their first game against Arizona State. If that's how it plays out. Right. They went against Arizona State, then they go play Boise State. To be Quite honest, the 5 seed is almost better than, than the 4.
- [50:36]
Louis Riddick
Seed or the Certainly in this, in this layout. Yeah.
- [50:41]
Todd McShay
It truly is because you get, you get to keep the momentum rolling. You don't have to sit out for like three weeks or whatever it is. You're back in business. You get a kind of a. I don't want to call a warm up game a game you should win at home. White out Arizona State. Take care of business. All right, wrap it up next week. Let's go that now we've got Boise State, another team we should win, we should beat. And then you find then the College Football Playoff really starts for James Franklin in the right.
- [51:13]
Louis Riddick
Right. Where SMU has to play the winner of Alabama Notre Dame in their first game.
- [51:18]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [51:18]
Louis Riddick
And then gets probably Texas or Georgia. Good luck.
- [51:25]
Todd McShay
Yeah. Anyway, this is fun. I'm glad we did this. We discussed this with, with Dan and, and Connor and Tucker and we came to the, came to the conclusion that this was the right way to do it. We're going to do a show earlier in the day but it just didn't make sense. We had to, we had to react to this. Appreciate everyone coming on live. Appreciate everyone downloading and, and listening and subscribing. We really, you know, don't. We're not here to beg but, but appreciate your support. Truly do. I'm excited about Thursday too. Our guy Pollock is coming back. David Pollock.
- [52:00]
Louis Riddick
Can't wait.
- [52:01]
Todd McShay
Yeah, it feels like the right time.
- [52:03]
Louis Riddick
We have Clemson now.
- [52:04]
Todd McShay
We had him on the very first show, right? We had him the very first show. You guys were beaten on Clemson. I forget. You were beating up Miami a little bit there.
- [52:15]
Louis Riddick
Right.
- [52:16]
Todd McShay
Georgia feels like they played three seasons since then. He's a Georgia, you know, he's a Georgia alum. Obviously one of the great players to come out of the Georgia program that's had unbelievable list of players. So I'm just curious to get his take on all things college football. You know, one thing about David, he's not shy.
- [52:35]
Louis Riddick
No.
- [52:36]
Todd McShay
And I, I haven't seen. I, I know he's had a show tonight on his, his podcast, but I haven't seen what his opinions are. But I'm sure he's going to come in red hot on, on Thursday. So please join our show on Thursday. Check it out. It's going to be. Going to be a lot of fun. And again, we'll be back on Saturday night, the final. It's not even regular season but the college, the conference championship reaction show that we're. We'll be excited to. To go through all the championship games and quite a slate and obviously we'll have. Well, we have a lot of the answers now but we'll have basically all the answers outside of if Clemson knocks off smu, how that score looks. Does Alabama stay in or is SMU gonna get in over. Can you imagine the SEC fans, the Alabama fans, the South Carolina fans of Clemson's in Even though one has nothing to do with the other. But just like the, the disgust Alabama, the, the brand, the helmet getting knocked out for smu. Can you imagine?
- [53:42]
Louis Riddick
I cannot.
- [53:43]
Todd McShay
Oh, it's gonna be fun. All right. We appreciate everyone appreciate, you know, Dan and Tucker and Connor and Eduardo hanging around doing this, adjusting everyone's schedule at Spotify and the ringer. Yeah, it's happened fun. This had to happen tonight. And we'll see you on Thursday. Appreciate you Mensch.
- [54:02]
Louis Riddick
Appreciate you, man.
- [54:03]
Todd McShay
All right, talk to you soon. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18/ plus and present in D.C. gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit rg-help.com call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-87-7-8, Hope NY or text Hope NY in New York.