The McShay Show

Episode: The College Football Playoff QB Confidence Draft. Plus, the Latest Transfer Portal Buzz.
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Todd McShay
Co-host: Mensch
Producer: Tucker
Podcast: The Ringer

Overview

This episode delves deep into two major college football topics:

1. The latest transfer portal developments among top quarterbacks
2. The annual College Football Playoff Quarterback Confidence Draft, where McShay and Mensch rank their most trusted QBs heading into the playoffs

McShay and Mensch combine analytic data, NFL scouting perspective, and gut instincts to debate and draft the QB they’d most want leading their team through the playoff gauntlet. Plenty of banter, deep scouting talk, and laugh-out-loud moments make this episode a must-listen for college football and draft fans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Transfer Portal Buzz: Breaking News & Analysis

[03:00–11:00]

• DJ Lagway entering the portal (Florida QB)

  • Initial reactions: Not a shock, given a new staff in Florida. "You did wonder with a new coaching staff... if they’d recruit heavily to keep him." (McShay, 02:49)
  • Potential landing spots: Miami is the obvious link, but Indiana, Oregon (if Dante Moore leaves), and Kentucky are all plausible. LSU and Ole Miss also discussed, especially given Lane Kiffin's habit of reloading QBs via transfers.
  • Behind-the-scenes context: Mensch reflects on the increasingly complicated decision process quarterbacks face today — is the staff recruiting the player, or letting him walk?

• South Carolina QB Lenoris Sellers to stay put

  • Rumors throughout the season pointed to Miami, but Sellers seems to be staying at South Carolina. Mensch notes the hire of Art Briles as OC and wonders if Sellers’ input was key: "Are you consulting with Lenoris Sellers’ team when you’re doing that?" (Mensch, 09:12)

• Aidan Chiles (Oregon State) enters the portal

  • High NFL interest but consensus he needs another year: "Started to watch the tape midseason and we're like, needs another year. Not ready." (McShay, 07:37)

• Transfer Portal Era Reflections

  • McShay supports the portal: "I think it's great... it's a limited amount of time to maximize my opportunity and I'm going to take advantage of it." (McShay, 08:32)

• Advice for QBs & Families

  • Choose your advisors wisely: "So many people who are influential in what the product is on Saturdays, many of which are qualified, many of which have no business [being involved]." (McShay, 10:20)

2. Setting Up the QB Confidence Draft

[11:01–21:00]

• Retrospective on Last Year's Draft

  • McShay and Mensch revisit their 2024 playoff QB rankings. Realize they overvalued "hot hand" and talent, underappreciated experience and clutch play. Lesson learned: value snaps, starts, and reliability.

• Defining the 2025 Playoff QB Field

  • Two QBs (Jake Retzlaff from Tulane, Alonzo Barnett from JMU) excluded as true contenders.
  • Deep statistical analysis: Total snaps, pass attempts, third/fourth down performance, and performance under pressure. Defensive and run-game support are also factored in.
    • "Carson Beck versus pressure is ninth out of 10 quarterbacks here… But he’s got the most experience." (McShay, 15:06)

• Playoff Team Quick Facts

  • 8 of the top 12 scoring defenses are in the playoff.
  • Mix of veterans — e.g., Beck, Morton, Mendoza — and highly talented upsides — e.g., Julian Sayin, Dante Moore, Ty Simpson.

3. The Quarterback Confidence Draft: Picks, Analysis & Banter

[21:00–58:00+]

1st Pick: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) | MM:SS 20:50

• McShay: "I'll go with Mendoza here, which is chalk, but also aligns with everything that I just showed as a preview."
• Cited: Over 2,000 snaps, highly rated defense, clutch tape, several Heisman moments.
• Mensch: "Absolute lock… can you get into all those numbers? The tape’s great. And these moments." (21:04)

2nd Pick: Dante Moore (Oregon) | 22:50

• Mensch: "I took Dante Moore from Oregon... just trusting my gut with what I see on tape and how poised he is in most situations."
• Emphasized overcoming adversity, impressive tape even with depleted receiver corps.

3rd Pick: Gunner Stockton (Georgia) | 27:21

• McShay: "My second pick, the third pick... I just have to go with it. Gunner Stockton."
• Both hosts adore Stockton; call him an unsung “Steady Eddie” who handles big games and pressure effortlessly.
• Mensch: "He's so underrated. I can't believe he took off third." (30:57)
• Memorable moment: Extended car/Scout Motors metaphor, both pining for a classic "Scout" vehicle while comparing Stockton’s reliability and old-school grit.

4th Pick: Julian Sayin (Ohio State) | 33:00

• Mensch: "He's just too damn efficient... I love that, and just the overall body of work this year."
• Elite under pressure, top third/fourth down numbers, poised in big games.
• McShay praises: "He was number one. Number one on third and fourth down. Number one in pressure versus pressure." (34:12)

5th Pick: Carson Beck (Miami) | 37:28

• McShay: "With the number five pick... Carson Beck."
• Most experienced QB, handled adversity, improvement noted, but inconsistent "bad games" (e.g., Louisville, Alabama) a concern.
• Mensch: "If he can avoid that out-of-nowhere, out-of-character performance..." (40:58)

6th Pick: Ty Simpson (Alabama) | 41:46

• Mensch: "He would have been higher... He has not played at the same level since South Carolina."
• Fluctuating form, hurt by Alabama's lack of run game, but can operate at an elite level when right.

7th Pick: Baron Morton (Texas Tech) | 44:08

• McShay: "I believe he's the perfect captain for that ship... 2,536 snaps."
• Prioritizing experience; sees Morton as "steady" and clutch on third downs.
• Mensch objects: "No way. I had him 10 on my list." (48:07)
• Back-and-forth debate over Morton’s toughness, limitations, and resume.

8th Pick: Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) | 48:10

• Mensch: "He's thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his last five games and seven times this year at the SEC level."
• Praised dual-threat ability, ball security (18 TD/3 INT), but knock for coaching turnover (Kiffin vacillating).

9th Pick: John Mateer (Oklahoma) | 49:24

• McShay: "I'll ride and die with John Mateer... I'll take the valleys with the peaks."
• Cites limited recent efficiency since thumb injury, but strong belief in veteran presence.
• Mensch: Nearly a coin flip with Marcel Reed, but leans Reed for a slight edge due to performance under pressure.

10th Pick: Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) | 51:46

• Mensch: "Those were the two guys that were right there, I think, in the same bucket."
• Points to Reed’s higher “shouldering” of offense, especially given lackluster supporting cast.

Honorable Mentions / Non-playoff Contenders: Jake Retzlaff (Tulane), Alonzo Barnett (JMU) | 53:52+

• McShay: Picks Retzlaff for experience and "winning pedigree".
• Mensch: Prefers Barnett for "home run" ability — big play threat, shows grit returning from injury.
• Both acknowledge these QBs face near-impossible assignments in the playoff.

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On DJ Lagway's transfer:

• "Who knows what went on behind the scenes. Now word is that we're going to wind up seeing Florida go into the portal itself and find a different quarterback..." (McShay, 02:49)

Portal Era Reflection:

• "I'm swimming with it, man. I think it's great. I've seen now too many years in a row where these quarterbacks have...a limited amount of time to maximize my opportunity, and I'm going to take advantage of it." (McShay, 08:32)

On the evolution of the draft strategy:

• "I was thinking more of the steady Eddies, not the most talented guys, but the guys you really are going to trust when the game is on the line..." (Mensch, 12:06)

On Gunner Stockton:

• "He brings you back to the old days. Gunner Stockton does, of quarterbacks — tough guys like Bradshaw, you know what I mean?" (McShay, 28:52)

On the difference in this year's field:

• "My goodness, is a difference in the College Football Playoff with the quarterback position this year." (McShay, 24:53)

Stat breakdown fun:

• "We're not stats guys. We got to be careful...What happens with tape guys try to get into numbers..." (McShay, 55:54)

5. Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 03:00 | DJ Lagway enters portal – analysis & potential spots | | 09:12 | Lenore Sellers stays at South Carolina; impact of OC hire| | 13:13 | Lessons from last year’s QB confidence draft | | 15:06 | QB metrics deep-dive: Experience, 3rd/4th Down, Pressure| | 20:50 | 1st overall pick (Mendoza) explained | | 27:21 | Gunner Stockton drafted; "My Guy" segment | | 33:00 | Julian Sayin’s credentials debated | | 41:46 | Ty Simpson’s spot dissected | | 44:08 | Baron Morton: Value of experience | | 48:10 | Trinidad Chambliss’ case as “homerun” pick | | 49:24 | Matier vs Reed – The "coin flip" for lower tier | | 53:52 | Jake Retzlaff vs Alonzo Barnett for bottom QB spot |

6. Tone, Language & Listener Value

The exchange is direct, playful, and conversational, with both hosts frequently ribbing each other, reflecting genuine evaluation disagreements. The blend of scouting jargon, advanced analytics, and analogies (comparing QBs to cars and baseball players) keeps the analysis accessible and vivid for both draft lovers and casual fans.

Listener Takeaways:

• Current state of the QB transfer market and why it matters
• What truly matters when trusting a QB with your playoff fate
• Deeply informed, sometimes surprising, rankings ahead of the 2025 College Football Playoff
• Several quips and references (Scout Motors, classic cars, “Steady Eddie” QBs, “Moneyball” metaphors) that enrich the football talk with levity and personal flavor

7. Final Thoughts

The hosts encourage fans to share feedback and speculate on alternative rankings and show formats. This episode stands as an illuminating, entertaining, and sometimes contrarian guide to the 2025 College Football Playoff QB picture.

Notable Quotes for Sharing:

• "If you’re a Billy Beane guy, if you’re a saber metrics guy, if you’re a moneyball guy, you love Gunner Stockton. In my opinion. Tell me I’m wrong." — McShay, 27:42
• "It does range Mendoza and then everyone else, really. But these are some, these are some really good quarterbacks, man." — Mensch, 57:01
• "Maybe we, maybe it was just because Riley Leonard and Will Howard had the best defenses. Maybe I put too much stock and experience this year." — McShay, 58:15

[End of Summary]