The McShay Show LIVE: Todd’s 2026 QB Rankings, CFP Predictions, and CFB Week 3 Preview (with Dan “Big Cat” Katz)

Date: September 11, 2025
Host: Todd McShay (with Steve Mensch)
Live Guest: Dan “Big Cat” Katz (Barstool Sports)

Episode Overview

In this jam-packed live episode from Chicago’s Lincoln Hall, Todd McShay, joined by co-host Steve Mensch and special guest Dan “Big Cat” Katz, delivers a five-course “chef’s tasting menu” of key college football matchups, rolls out updated 2026 quarterback rankings, and drafts projected College Football Playoff teams. They dive deep into the most intriguing QB prospects, break down team trajectories, discuss shifting power dynamics in college football, and get honest about Caleb Williams’ Bears debut. This episode serves up both sharp CFB analysis and lively banter.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Week 3 Game Previews & Picks

Timestamps: 02:40 – 17:59

a. Georgia @ Tennessee

• Mensch: Not sold on Georgia’s QB Gunner Stockton, but history and defense favor Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs.
• McShay: Believes this is a classic “it just doesn’t matter” matchup: “Kirby Smart has owned Tennessee...Tennessee hasn’t beaten Georgia since 2016.” (04:37)
• Both pick Georgia.

b. Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

• Mensch: Likes ND; touts QB CJ Carr’s potential—“Still encouraged by what he did.” (05:36)
• McShay: Predicts a close battle; thinks A&M covers the spread but ND wins. Notes A&M WR Mario Craver’s impressive start.

c. Florida @ LSU

• Mensch: Favors LSU due to Nussmeier’s play and Florida’s lack of momentum—“I think this is it. ... Give me LSU and I think they cover.” (08:16)
• McShay: Credits LSU’s QB play but warns about Florida’s potential for a “backs against the wall” performance. Still picks LSU.

d. Miami vs. South Florida

• Mensch: Expects Miami’s physical fronts to dominate—“That defensive line for Miami is a nightmare.” (10:26)
• McShay: Excited for WR Malachi Tony; expects Miami win but praises USF’s progress under Alex Golesh.

e. Clemson @ Georgia Tech

• Mensch: Calls for a Clemson bounceback, references historical dominance.
• McShay: Challenger for Clemson—urges them to “be the bully.” (14:30)
• Quote: “At some point you’ve got to step on that field and say, ‘It goes through us.’” (14:58)

2. Best Bets & Parlay Picks

Timestamps: 15:57 – 18:44

• Steve’s Pick of the Week: Notre Dame
• Todd’s Pick of the Week: Duke +1.5 over Tulane
• Todd’s 4-leg Parlay: Georgia ML, Clemson ML, Duke +1.5, Utah ML (Potential +620 payout)

3. CFP Draft: Building the 2025 Playoff Field

Timestamps: 19:19 – 34:57

The hosts conduct a draft, alternating picks for projected conference champions and at-large bids:

• Big Ten: Ohio State (Mensch) — “Jeremiah Smith is the best player in the country.” (20:51)
• SEC: LSU (McShay) — “Nussmeier’s doing different stuff. This is like Andrew Luck stuff pre snap.” (21:27)
• Big 12: Utah (Mensch) — Loves their O-line and QB Dampier: “He can run, make plays with his arm...a difference maker.” (23:08)
• ACC: Clemson (McShay) — Admits Miami might be stronger; wants this week as a “bully” moment.
• G5: South Florida (Mensch)
• At-Large and “on the fence” teams: Texas, Notre Dame, Georgia, Florida State, Oregon, Penn State, Oklahoma.

Debates:

• Illinois as a possible Playoff contender (Mensch is high on them).
• Discussion on possible teams who miss out: Texas, Oklahoma, Miami, etc.

4. 2026 Quarterback Rankings Reveal

Timestamps: 35:18 – 44:07

McShay unveils his latest top QB prospects (no Arch Manning yet).
Top 8:

1. Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) — “He orchestrates things...I would take Nussmeier #1 overall right now.” (36:41)
2. Lenora Sellers (South Carolina)
3. Cade Klubnik (Clemson)
4. Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
5. John Matier (Oklahoma)
6. Drew Aller (Penn State)
7. Carson Beck (Georgia) (on the rise again)
8. Sawyer Robertson (Baylor)

• Notable: Matier and Beck could be underrated, per Mensch.
• Fun moment: McShay’s story from the “quietly dominant” Manning Passing Academy (41:27)

5. Feature Interview: Dan “Big Cat” Katz Joins the Show

Timestamps: 47:32 – 78:47

a. Caleb Williams & Bears: Panic Meter Check

• Big Cat: “I want to talk about Caleb...I’m having a little existential crisis.” (48:20)
• Concerns: Bears’ front office didn’t set Caleb up for success; OC hire, coaching continuity issues.
• McShay: “You don’t draft that quarterback and have a defensive head coach...should have been Ben Johnson” (51:49)
• Big Cat on NFL coaching culture: “If you didn’t pick the guy, you don’t care.” (52:26)
• Patience plea: “I’m not giving up...I just, week one, it just felt like there was a lot of the same stuff...” (55:08)
• McShay on QB impatience: “It used to be a guy would get three, four, five years. Now teams are like, you know, we’re, we’re done—Josh Rosen, we’re done after a year. ... But it’s smarter.” (56:36)

b. Kicker Tangent

• Big Cat: “Cairo Santos can’t kick over 50 yards. It’s a problem.” (57:08)
• Fun banter on modern NFL kicker expectations.

c. Big Ten vs. SEC: The Balance of Power

Timestamps: 64:24 – 73:32

• Big Cat: “The Big Ten is going to dominate... Once Nick Saban gets out of football, goes on a tour basically being like ‘it’s not fair anymore’—I think I trust Nick Saban.” (64:38)
• All agree: Big Ten up, SEC in flux post-Saban.
  • “You just counted on [Bama]...now you don’t.” (67:10)
• Point: Top of the Big Ten is superior right now, but SEC mid-tier depth still unrivaled (Todd, 72:13)
• Fun digression: McShay recalls Bo Schembechler and “Michigan man” mythology (66:21)

d. Northwestern as “Hardest Place to Play”

• Big Cat’s bold take: Evanston at 11am is toughest—“I think it’s harder than Death Valley at night. ... My team (Wisconsin) always loses in this spot!” (74:15)

e. Rapid-fire Bets & Closing Picks

• Agreement: LSU and Miami favorites vs. Florida and USF.
• Todd on Duke +1.5: “It’s the Corso one, though—man, makes me nervous...I’m going with the ‘somebody knows something.’” (77:28)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Todd McShay on Georgia vs Tennessee:
  “Some matchups in college football, it just don’t matter, right? And this is one of them. Kirby Smart has owned Tennessee.”
  (04:37)
• Steve Mensch on Miami’s D-line:
  “Miami’s defensive line is a nightmare. And the offensive line for Miami is pretty damn good, too.”
  (10:26)
• Big Cat on Bears QB situation:
  “All the timelines have been wrong... If it’s not your guy, you’ll give him a shot, but the minute he’s not good, you’re like, that’s not my problem.”
  (52:26)
• McShay’s challenge to Clemson:
  “How about you walk out there and actually take the fight to somebody? ... Be the bully, right?”
  (14:38)
• On the Big Ten-SEC shift:
  “The Big Ten is going to dominate... The dynamic has shifted.” —Big Cat (64:38)
  “Top of the Big Ten right now is better.” —McShay (71:51)
• Big Cat’s picks: “Evanston at 11am is the hardest place to play in the country.” (74:15)

Major Timestamps

• Week 3 Preview & Picks: 02:40 – 17:59
• CFP Draft: 19:19 – 34:57
• QB Rankings: 35:18 – 44:07
• Big Cat Joins (Bears/Caleb/Big Ten SEC): 47:32 – 73:32
• Rapid-fire closing bets & fun banter: 73:34 – 78:47

Summary Flow & Tone

Todd and Steve riff with energy, mixing rapid-fire predictions with deeply-informed analysis. They repeatedly blend humor (roasting picks, Northwestern stadium jokes) with straight talk (“I was wrong on Clemson”), and Big Cat’s segment brings passionate Chicago sports lament and big-picture college football perspective. The entire episode embodies the live-show vibe: crowd interaction, sharp banter, and behind-the-scenes industry insight.

Ideal For…

• NFL draft/CFB fans hungry for big-picture context AND nuanced roster/coach/player insight
• Bears fans navigating Caleb Williams hopes/fears
• Anyone wanting to prep for Week 3 with the perspective of top evaluators and media personalities
• Draftniks interested in early 2026 QB rankings

NOTE: All timestamps in MM:SS format reference the transcript provided and may shift in standard podcast timestamps due to ads or differing cuts on streaming platforms.