The McShay Show - April 29, 2026
Episode: The Way-Too-Early 2027 Mock Draft: Arch Manning Vs. Dante Moore
Host: Todd McShay (with Steve Muench and Bucky Brooks guest hosting, plus Daniel Jeremiah in this special episode)
Main Theme: Breaking down Todd McShay’s “way-too-early” 2027 NFL mock draft, with a focus on a potential Arch Manning vs. Dante Moore quarterback debate, and a deep look at the most exciting prospects for the 2027 NFL Draft.
Episode Overview
The episode dives into the annual “way-too-early” mock draft for the 2027 NFL season, presented as a fun but serious look ahead at college football’s future stars. Todd McShay, along with cohosts and draft analysts (especially Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks), scrutinizes the projected top picks, discusses lessons learned from the previous year’s predictions, and debates the outlook for top prospects—particularly quarterbacks Arch Manning (Texas) and Dante Moore (Oregon). The consensus: the 2027 class has the “juice” and depth lacking in 2026, with a potential generational wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Lessons from Past Way-Too-Early Mocks
- The crew opens by poking fun at themselves over last year’s misses—especially overrating some quarterback prospects.
- McShay stresses the mock draft is part fun, part informational: “This is a fun exercise that people enjoy to get a sense of what next year's draft class is.” (06:02)
- They break down statistics showing how many “way-too-early” picks from the last year actually panned out.
- 11 players from last year’s list went Round 1, 7 on Day 2, only 8 missed both rounds (06:35–07:02).
2. The Process: Building a Better Early Mock
- McShay describes unprecedented access to NFL teams’ initial big boards, making this the most informed “early” mock he’s ever produced.
- “I feel better about this list than we ever have before. We’ve watched all the quarterbacks...this is more information than I’ve ever had.” (10:05)
3. 2027 Quarterback Class Depth
- The mock has Arch Manning (Texas) at No. 1 (New York Jets), Dante Moore (Oregon) at No. 3 (Arizona Cardinals), and Lenora Sellers at No. 4 (Cleveland Browns).
- Discussion around Brandon Sorsby’s removal due to NCAA gambling violations and eligibility issues (12:53–13:44).
- Notable prospects in the top 10: C.J. Carr (Notre Dame), Sam Levitt (LSU), Julian Sayin (Ohio State).
- “This is kind of the beauty of this 2027 quarterback class where you think you lose a potential top 10 pick and it's a kind of next guy up.” (13:44)
4. Arch Manning vs. Dante Moore: The Debate
- “Is it Arch or is it Dante?” (15:49)
- Arch Manning: “Arch is bigger, Arch is more mobile… here’s the deal with Arch, man. You got to remember coming into last year, it was Texas won the national championship. Texas Heisman Arch, Heisman Trophy. Arch, number one overall pick.” (16:04)
- Dante Moore: “Dante’s a better pure passer and had some ups and downs this year and made the decision…to go back to Oregon last year...this guy is mature beyond his years.” (18:34–18:51)
- The hosts address the baggage and legacy issues (Manning family, resistance to certain NFL destinations, Jets’ problematic past), but both agree these are less concerning now based on organizational improvements with the Jets.
Memorable Quotes
- “I literally think [Jeremiah Smith] could be the best wide receiver of all time.” – Todd McShay (36:34)
- “If he's not the first positional player taken outside of quarterback, I'll be blown away.” – Daniel Jeremiah on Jeremiah Smith (36:39)
- “Shooters shoot.” – Todd McShay on not being gun-shy about making bold mock draft calls, even after past criticism (31:02)
5. Jeremiah Smith: A Generational Wide Receiver
- The crew heaps praise on Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) and his unprecedented blend of skill, size, and mindset.
- “Smith over Marvin Harrison Jr.? Smith. Smith over Jamar Chase? Smith. Smith over A.J. Green? Smith. Smith or Calvin Johnson? Calvin.” (33:44–34:04)
- McShay ranks him just behind Calvin Johnson historically, but says Smith could surpass him with a standout year and workout.
- “He actually… wants to be the greatest to ever do this. Not because of what it brings, but he knows it's in him. So he's gonna go get it.” (38:25)
6. Other Key Names and Surprises
- Lenora Sellers (QB South Carolina): “As talented as anyone in… the country. Arm strength, mobility. But he’s had to develop bad habits because of poor blocking.” (23:38–24:57)
- Cam Coleman (WR Texas): Surprise “fall” in McShay’s projection, akin to A.J. Green/Julio Jones in raw ability.
- Tight ends: Texas Tech’s Terrence Carter—surprise first-round projection, LSU’s Trez Green, and Oregon’s Jamari Johnson discussed.
- Noted that positional players will fall in favor of QB depth in 2027.
7. The Fun—and the Futility—of Early Mock Drafts
- The analysts share an abundance of mock draft humility: “This is an impossible exercise and it's fun.” (44:04)
- Discussed the ever-changing landscape, with Jaden Daniels and Fernando Mendoza floated as recent high risers who no one saw a year out.
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:06–06:02 | Reflection on last year’s way-too-early mock, accountability for misses, purpose of the exercise.
- 10:05–13:44 | Deep dive into this year’s improved process and removal of Brandon Sorsby for eligibility.
- 14:24–15:49 | Explanation of draft order logic and kick-off of this year’s mock draft breakdown.
- 15:49–22:33 | Arch Manning vs. Dante Moore discussion; quarterback class depth; NFL destinations; Jets/organizational outlook.
- 23:38–26:38 | Lenora Sellers’ strengths and question marks; impact of new OC at South Carolina.
- 26:38–31:30 | Full review of top 10 in the way-too-early mock; remarkable quarterback class depth.
- 33:40–38:42 | Jeremiah Smith segment — strengths, historical comparisons, and his impact on the positional value board.
- 40:55–44:43 | Surprising players in the mock, especially Cam Coleman and top tight ends; the impact of a heavy QB class on positional prospects.
Standout Quotes & Memorable Moments
“Arch is bigger, Arch is more mobile… here's the deal with Arch, man… there was a residual. You could see, his mechanics weren't the same, but Oklahoma game, we saw some flashes...this is what we expected.” – Daniel Jeremiah (16:04–17:23)
“Dante's a better pure passer and had some ups and downs this year...but the first thing you hear from every scout...is this guy is mature beyond his years.” – Todd McShay (18:34–18:51)
“If it's not Arch or Dante, it’s a stunner.” – Daniel Jeremiah (15:49)
“Smith… could be the best wide receiver in the history of the National Football League.” – Todd McShay (36:34–36:39)
“Shooters shoot.” – Todd McShay on owning his bold predictions, undeterred by past mistakes (31:02)
Player Highlights
- Arch Manning (Texas, QB): High-profile, legacy-laden, rebounded from midseason struggles, immense upside, but facing sky-high expectations.
- Dante Moore (Oregon, QB): Mature, pro-ready decision making, returning for senior year, smooth pure passer, strong mental makeup.
- Lenora Sellers (South Carolina, QB): Immense talent, physical runner, but forced into bad habits by poor support cast. New OC may help.
- Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State, WR): Perhaps the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson—size, skills, competitive edge, advanced route running, pure physical dominance. “Generational talent.”
- Cam Coleman (Texas, WR): Size/speed mismatch, first-round tools; movement compared to iconic WR classes.
- Terrence Carter (Texas Tech, TE) & Trez Green (LSU, TE): Signal the renewed importance of tight end prospects.
Insights & Takeaways
- 2027 is shaping up as an elite quarterback class—six projected top 10 QBs, possibly more with late risers in the year ahead.
- Jeremiah Smith is a consensus “can’t-miss,” potential once-in-a-decade positional prospect.
- The draft’s extreme quarterback depth will push some highly touted positional players down the board—savvy teams may find All-Pro talent at WR, TE, and OT outside the top five.
- Engaging, competitive debates about QBs’ pro readiness, mental toughness, and fit for particular NFL franchises continue to dominate early conversations.
- The mock’s greatest value: putting new names on the radar for fans, media, and even NFL team evaluators.
Closing Thoughts
The episode wraps on a lively and optimistic note: this 2027 class, led by high-end QBs and the transcendent Jeremiah Smith, has the makings of something special—even if projecting college talent 12 months out is always a gamble. The hosts hint at even more in-depth breakdowns, updated projections, and behind-the-scenes stories to come as the college season unfolds.
For Todd’s full mock draft and exclusive analysis, visit theringer.com/mcshay and subscribe to The McShay Report.
