The McShay Show (The Ringer)

Episode: Todd’s Pre-Combine Top-50 Big Board: A Surprise at 1, Mendoza Red Flags, and Other Takeaways. Plus, the Future of NFL Draft Psychological Testing
Date: February 19, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode is packed with NFL Draft analysis as Todd McShay unveils his updated pre-combine Top-50 Big Board, featuring some surprising rankings and deep dives into positional value and grading philosophy. In addition to examining this year's top prospects, the episode features a fascinating interview with Dr. Scott Goldman of Athletic Intelligence Quotient (AIQ), the leading authority on psychological assessments in the draft process. Goldman discusses the evolution and science behind NFL psychological testing, real-life player examples, and what AIQ reveals about prospects in this year’s class.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. Todd McShay’s Pre-Combine Top-50 Big Board

Why the Board Now?

• Todd explains that releasing his Top 50 before combine workouts ensures the rankings aren't unduly influenced by athletic test results. He advocates for evaluating tape and prior performance before factoring in the "underwear Olympics" measurements. (05:01)

Methodology & Grading Rigor

• Emphasis on stacking players not just by talent but by historical context and positional value. Todd compares this year’s grades to top prospects from recent years to keep evaluations consistent. (08:27)

Surprises at the Top

• Running Back Jeremiah Love takes #1 overall spot — a first in McShay’s career.

  “I finally mustered up the onions to just put a running back at number one overall, something I literally have never done before.” (22:22, Todd McShay)

• Edge rusher David Bailey and linebacker Arvell Reese are right behind, with safety Caleb Downs rounding out a non-quarterback-heavy top 4.
• QB Fernando Mendoza is only #5 despite being the media favorite for the #1 pick and a likely selection by the Raiders, per Todd’s sources (10:00), owing to his stricter grading philosophy.

Philosophical Debate: Value, Grades, and Traits

• The panel debates positions and grades:
  • Are non-premium players worth top grades?
  • “I don't mind Jeremiah Love being one… 94 is too high. I think Reese is too high at 94, and I think Bailey's too high at 94.” (13:36, Mitch)
  • Todd discusses the fine point difference between seemingly similar grades, emphasizing the big NFL salary implications between a “94” and “95.” (14:08)

Positional Tiers & Standouts

• First Tier: Love, Bailey, Reese, Downs — all “blue chip” talents.
• Second Tier: Mendoza and the offensive linemen (Maui Noah, Fano), plus receivers Tate and Lemon, and edge Bain.
• Third Tier: Players with minor medical/age/red flag traits, e.g., Jordan Tyson, Akeem Messidor, Sonny Styles.

2. Deep Dives on Top Prospects

Mendoza Red Flags

• Mendoza’s toughness, mental traits, and high processing get praise—but concerns remain about his reaction under pressure and short-area agility:

  “What concerns me about him...there's a quarter count of panic that sets in. Eyes drop like that... he hasn't learned to calmly handle those moments.” (29:12, Todd McShay)

Bailey vs. Reese: The Great Pass Rusher Debate

• Bailey is the more “proven” pass rusher; Reese is a rawer, high-ceiling projection. The conversation draws parallels to recent prospect mistakes (e.g., Micah Parsons dropping to 12th).

  "I just feel like if you take Bailey over him, you're going to look back and say you could have had one of the best edges in the league.” (18:23, Mitch)

• NFL quote: “Guys in the league don't make decisions on hope.” (22:57, per NFL exec to Todd)

Early WR & OL Trends

• Debate over top tackles Francis Maui Noah (Miami) vs. Spencer Fano (Utah)—Todd has them graded equally, but Mitch is firmly Team Fano.
• Makai Lemon (USC) is a polarizing WR prospect, praised for tape but red-flagged for possibly being sub-6’0” which, historically, is a concern for WRs making an NFL impact. (35:43)
• Emerging sleepers highlighted: DBs McNeil Warren (Toledo) and Avion Terrell (Clemson).

Sleeper Profiles & “Buckets”

• Jordan Tyson (WR, Arizona State): Phenomenal tape, durability concerns.
• Monroe Freeling (OT, Georgia): Polarizing, huge upside but inconsistent tape and only a one-year starter.

3. The NFL Draft’s Newest Frontier: Psychological Testing (w/ Scott Goldman, AIQ)

Intro to AIQ & NFL Adoption ([48:53–50:40])

• AIQ is the only NFL-certified psychological assessment tool, correlating directly with NFL performance metrics.
• Goldman: “We have five peer-reviewed papers, three showing significant correlation with on-field performance in the NFL…” (50:40)
• Covers four athlete domains: physical, experience, personality, intelligence — AIQ measures the “intelligence” aspect, focused on processing, adaptability, and decision-making.

How AIQ Works

• Over 15,000 athletes in the database. Test is ~35 mins on an iPad—all interactive, not language-based.
• Results contextualize a player’s fit for various schemes, developmental needs, and can highlight "hidden gems."

  “It’s like, if you want to know how fast a guy is, you have him run the 40. Similarly, we’re not asking you how intelligent you are; we’re observing it through task-based testing.” (55:30, Scott Goldman)

What Do Teams Get?

• Teams receive analytical reports, ongoing consulting, and access to new “AIQ Plus”—an AI built from years of playbooks, data, and NFL expertise for deeper scenario breakdowns and player comparisons. (58:40)

Case Studies: 2025 Draft Hits

• TMAC (Tet McMillan, WR): AIQ flagging as a high cognitive fit for complex option-tree offenses—explaining his jump as a pro.
• Carson Schlesinger (LB): Projected to be a “green dot” leader due to off-the-charts processing—data explained why his physical traits mattered less.

2026 Preview: Prospects with Agent-Approved AIQ Insights

(Key Segments: 73:50–81:52)

• Arvell Reese (LB/Edge): “His versatility and ability to handle the responsibilities of multiple attacking points… you can line him up in a lot of different places...”
• Chris Johnson (CB, San Diego State): “Has superior field awareness and vision... cognitive profile suggests he could fit the slot or outside.”
• Eli Stowers (TE, Vanderbilt): “Exceptional processing speed, decision-making, and spatial awareness. Finds holes in coverage, sees the field, not necessarily the biggest or fastest.”
• Jake Galde (LB, Cincinnati): “Can take a big playbook and learn it quickly... rare ability to absorb info, teach others, and not require excess coaching repetition.”

“Why wouldn’t you want this? The first thing if I took a GM job is to make sure I had access to this kind of information.” (87:53, Todd McShay)

The Wider Impact

• AIQ teams use results not just for drafting, but for post-draft development, deployment, position changes, and long-term fit.
• Super Bowl-winning offensive lines have mapped out position shuffles based on AIQ cognitive profiles.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I know the quarterback’s going number one, and I’m told even just as recently as the last 72 hours...he’s going number one to the Raiders.” – Todd McShay (10:00)
• “There’s a difference between situational football and what happens in the lifetime of a snap.” – Mitch (31:38)
• “A lot of teams still have their own psychologists, but AIQ is the only testing recognized by the NFL now.” – Todd McShay (03:05)
• “His scores align with metrics that suggest he’ll have success in sacks, TFLs, turnovers.” – Scott Goldman on Arvell Reese (78:41)
• “When you have two independent sources in alignment—tape and cognitive data—you have a lot more confidence in what you see.” – Scott Goldman (80:36)
• “This is more than just a number, more than just a one-and-done moment—our job is continuous development with player and team throughout the year.” – Scott Goldman (88:47)

Important Timestamps

• 00:07 – Show intro, context for psychological testing segment
• 05:01–12:00 – Top 50 methodology, philosophical debate (premium positions, grading history)
• 13:10–24:49 – Top 5 breakdown: Running backs, edge, LB, safety, QB Mendoza red flags
• 31:22–36:41 – WR/OT debate, deeper Big Board insights (tiers, parity, size concerns)
• 48:53–52:00 – Scott Goldman joins: About AIQ, scientific rigor, NFL partnership
• 55:30–59:13 – AIQ test description, database, value for teams, product overview
• 63:35–68:19 – AIQ real-world results: Tet McMillan and Carson Schlesinger case study
• 73:50–81:52 – Four 2026 prospects: Arvell Reese, Chris Johnson, Eli Stowers, Jake Galde cognitive profiles
• 88:47–89:49 – AIQ’s work with teams post-draft—and a Super Bowl OL room story

The Takeaway

This episode is a must-listen for draftniks, offering a behind-the-scenes look at how elite evaluators rank prospects (and why) before the combine, the internal debates on grading, and the growing influence of psychological profiling on the future of NFL scouting. The discussion with Scott Goldman and the AIQ case studies offer a window into the next horizon of talent evaluation — where brains and fit matter as much as brawn and tape.

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