The McShay Show – Episode Summary

Episode: "Ty Simpson Declares for the Draft: Instant Reactions and Best Team Fits"
Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Todd McShay
Guest: Steve Muench
Podcast: The Ringer

Overview

This flash episode delivers Todd McShay and fellow draft analyst Steve Muench’s immediate reactions to Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson’s surprise decision to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. The discussion dives into the reasoning, implications, and NFL fit for Simpson—a talent who generated national buzz but carries notable question marks. The episode focuses on talent evaluation, the risks of early entry, NFL historical parallels, and which NFL teams could be the best landing spots.

Key Discussion Points

Initial Reaction: Surprise and Skepticism

• Both McShay and Muench express surprise and concern at Simpson’s early entry into the draft, emphasizing that more college experience tends to support long-term NFL success.
• (00:51) Steve Muench likens his emotions to Pete Carroll at the Mark Sanchez press conference:

  “I've never felt more like Pete Carroll than I do today. It feels like the Mark Sanchez press conference all over again.”

• Muench repeatedly vocalizes disappointment, believing Simpson would’ve been better served staying at Alabama for another year.

The Advisory Committee and Simpson’s Decision

• Simpson’s father (Jason Simpson, head coach at UT Martin) claims all NFL GMs they spoke to had him as a first-rounder; none said second round. (03:35)
• There was strong interest in Simpson from other top programs (rumored Power 4 conference transfer offers).
• Lucrative NIL opportunities were available if he stayed, which adds complexity to the decision.

Ty Simpson’s 2025 Season – Performance Recap

• 64.5% completion on passes
• 3,600 yards passing, 28 TDs, 5 INT; 11-4 record; led Alabama to CFB playoffs quarterfinal (05:26)
• However, a notable dip in performance over the final four games:
  • 57% completion
  • 158.3 yds/gm
  • 6 TD, 1 INT
  • Notorious ball security struggles (five consecutive games with lost fumbles)

Scouting Report: Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Elite Processing and Footwork:

  “When he was playing well… there was not a quarterback in the country playing at Ty Simpson's level. … He’s shown elite, elite processing, footwork, command at the line of scrimmage.” – Todd McShay (09:36)

• Pre/Post-Snap Mastery: Reads defenses, audibles, NFL concepts—rare for a college QB.
• Mid-Season Peak: Through nine games: ~70% completion, 21 TDs, 1 INT, four-game stretch defeating ranked SEC opponents.
• Toughness and Grit: Carried Alabama with minimal run game and inconsistent supporting cast.

Weaknesses

• Small Sample Size: Only 15 career starts.
• Lack of Elite Physical Traits: “There's an absence… of an elite physical trait. And then there's this final stretch of the season you've got to dig into.” (13:59)
• Late-Season Decline: Defenses adjusted; exposed by opposing schemes (citing Oklahoma/Brent Venables' adjustments).
• Deep Ball Inconsistency: Some brilliant throws, but many misses.
• Ball Security: Fumble issues highlighted as a genuine concern.
• Undersized: Listed at 6'2", actually closer to 6’1”.

Notable Comparison & Quote

• McShay likens Simpson’s midseason tape to a young Joe Burrow:

  “He was doing stuff I hadn’t seen since Joe Burrow.” — Todd McShay (11:22)

The “Experience” Debate: Start Count and Historical Precedents

• McShay extensively details how nearly every successful NFL starting QB started 30+ college games (16:10)
• Outliers: Mahomes (29 starts), Josh Allen (25) succeeded thanks in part to excellent early pro development. Both had "superhuman" traits.
• Most common “low experience” first-round QBs that failed to develop:
  • Mitch Trubisky (13 starts)
  • Anthony Richardson (13 starts)
• Simpson’s experience (15 starts, 31 total games played including backup) is close to Trubisky, which is worrisome.

  “If you're trying to make an argument… Ty did grow up around ball his whole life… but nothing that points that you say, well, he was there for six years. It’s not that dissimilar [from Trubisky].” – McShay (20:18)

• Muench ponders “Alabama quarterback” stigma, referencing Mac Jones and limited pro upside even after historic college seasons. (21:03)

Draft Stock and NFL Team Fits

• McShay notes that no matter current grade, Simpson can rise with strong interviews (“on the board” performance) at the combine and pro day. (24:46)

  “I would be very surprised if this whole process ends and Ty Simpson's not a first round pick.” — McShay (25:31)

• But they draw a careful line: Where Simpson is drafted may diverge from where he can have long-term NFL success. Steve emphasizes,

  “There’s not a lot of areas that he can really help himself in the pre-draft process, because I do think he is… That’s his max.” (26:39)

Best Potential Team Fits (34:10–36:48)

• Miami Dolphins (Pick 11): Intriguing if Mike McDaniel stays, but line needs work.
• LA Rams (Pick 13, and possibly later): Best-case scenario if he can develop behind Stafford and under Sean McVay (“if he’s going to play for Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford’s playing another year—okay, now he’s a genius” – Muench, 31:39).
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick 21): Mixed feelings; need a solution but not an ideal QB incubator.
• Cleveland Browns (Pick 28): Post-Stefanski regime doesn’t inspire confidence.
• Jets & Arizona: Briefly discussed as wild cards if they move around the board.

Miami and LA Rams are positioned as the most attractive developmental situations.

Philosophical Reflection: Process vs. Outcome

• McShay and Muench underscore the distinction between maximizing draft status and maximizing professional success.

  “If you're talking about wanting to get drafted earlier, Ty Simpson should come out now. If you're talking about wanting to be successful for the long run in the NFL, that’s a different thing. And I think he should have gone back [to school].” — Muench (29:19)

• McShay is blunt:

  “This decision by Ty Simpson is a failure to take the long-term view… I think this is a failure to put himself in the best position to have long-term success in the NFL.” (29:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Elite Traits: (09:36)
  “You look across the league... the guys who have been successful, they all have an elite trait… Simpson doesn’t really have that physical trait.”
• On Ball Security: (13:59)
  “We talked about the five straight games with fumbles inside the pocket.”
• On Alabama QBs: (21:03)
  “Are you worried about the history of Alabama quarterbacks recently?” (Muench)
• On First-Round Probability: (25:31)
  “I would be very surprised if this whole process ends and Ty Simpson’s not a first round pick.” (McShay)
• On the Rams Scenario: (31:39)
  “If he’s going to play for Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford’s playing another year—okay, now he’s a genius. Now he broke the code.” (Muench)
• On Long-Term Success: (29:41)
  “This decision by Ty Simpson fails to put him in the best position to have long-term success in the NFL. That doesn’t mean he’s going to fail. But I’m a trends guy.” (McShay)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:40 – Breaking the news, emotional reaction
• 03:35 – Simpson family statement & first-round grades
• 05:26 – Simpson’s 2025 season stats & late slump
• 09:00–13:59 – Scouting breakdown: what’s elite, what’s worrisome
• 16:10–20:18 – The “number of starts” argument & historical context
• 21:03 – Alabama QB skepticism, Mac Jones comparison
• 24:46–27:06 – Draft process—how Simpson will interview, rise/fall
• 29:02 – Tiering this QB class, why McShay wanted another year at Bama
• 31:39–36:48 – NFL landing spots: Rams, Dolphins, etc.

Conclusion & Tone

Both hosts maintain an analytical yet emotionally invested tone—they’re rooting for Simpson but believe this is a risky, perhaps shortsighted, leap to the NFL. They balance hope for Simpson’s future with a wariness shaped by the history of similar prospects. This makes the pod a must-listen for anyone interested in the nuances of NFL quarterback evaluation and the draft process.

Summary prepared to capture the detailed discussions, tone, and essential insights from “The McShay Show.”