The McShay Show – Week 11 Tape Truths: Mendoza's Draft Stock, Ty Simpson Is NFL Ready, and King Miller's Rise

Host: Todd McShay (with Stephen)
Date: November 10, 2025
Episode Theme:
Todd McShay and Stephen go deep into college football’s Week 11, breaking down the play and draft stock of rising stars, prime matchups, and sleeper performances through their “10 Tape Truths.” This episode is a comprehensive scouting session—packed with granular QB evaluations, schematic breakdowns, and previews for a blockbuster Georgia vs Texas matchup.

Main Topics and Key Insights

1. Notre Dame vs Pitt: Mason Hill’s Impact and Pitt’s Run Defense

[04:27–09:46]

• Mason Hill, freshman QB at Pitt: Key reason Notre Dame should be wary—Pitt is averaging 40 PPG since he started and he’s thrown for over 300 yards in 4/5 games.
• Pitt’s Run Defense: Best in the country at 2.39 YPC (even stingier at home, 2.13).
  • Stephen: “Four of the last six seasons that Pitt's had the best run defense in the ACC.”
• Narduzzi’s defense: Aggressive, built for chaos with active linebackers and undersized-but-disruptive DTs (Aaron Donald mold).
• CJ Carr, Notre Dame QB: Under pressure and “has made critical mistakes in big games.” Despite Tom Brady’s praise, still has something to prove.
  • Todd (on Narduzzi): “Every time I see Pat Narduzzi, it’s the same version of ‘Hey don’t worry about us, we’re just little Pitt,’ but you’re not fooling me.” [06:18]

2. Deep Dive: Fernando Mendoza’s Draft Stock (Indiana QB)

[09:51–25:16]

• Mendoza’s best performance to date at Indiana (the Penn State game) offered both growth and revealed lingering concerns.
• Positives: 6’5”/220, mobile, smooth passer, live arm, makes some NFL-caliber throws (Herbert–Daniel Jones hybrid).
  • Showed poise and a “smooth running style, long strides… frightening for DCs.” [14:00]
  • “This guy’s going to be a top 10 pick. Book it down right now.” – Todd, [18:03]
• Key Negative: “Quarter count of panic”—Eyes drop, panics on first read, holds ball too long, susceptible to sacks/interceptions (see 4th quarter INT at 11:22).
  • Stephen: “This is my problem [with Mendoza]... but it’s correctable.”
• Clutch: Final TD drive at Penn State under huge pressure, “onions plus” toughness making throws while getting hit.
  • Todd: “Onions are for that position if you’re going to succeed in the NFL and my goodness, he is onions plus.” [24:36]
• Teams should defend with drop-8 coverage—Make him read and stay poised.

3. Tape Truth: Ty Simpson is Now the Standard

[26:45–35:35]

• Simpson’s tape is Todd’s “truth serum” for QB evaluation.
• Key attributes:
  • Elite pre-snap and post-snap processing (identifying/manipulating zones/man, reading safeties).
  • Superb at adjusting protections, checking into beaters, working progressions.
  • No running game support—everything on him.
  • “Ty Simpson is the most NFL ready quarterback in the country.” – Todd, [33:07]
  • Memorable: “I have literally never seen a first-year starting quarterback in college football play the game at this high of a level. Never.” – Todd, [35:18]
• Simpson is still the “bar setter” for this loaded (but underwhelming) 2026 QB class.

4. Georgia’s Run Game: The Heavyweight Fighter

[38:58–42:17]

• Georgia wears teams down: Second in SEC in time of possession and carries.
• RB Combo: Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens elite, Oscar Delp (“growing on me”) key blocking TE.
• Scheme variety: Inside zone, buck sweep (love for the play design), with effective perimeter XR (Dylan Bell).
• Point: Georgia doesn’t care about stats, just wants to extend drives and “wear your ass out.”
  • “If you wear that Georgia uniform, you block.” – Stephen, [40:49]

5. Texas Run Defense, Personnel Losses, and Outlook vs Georgia

[42:56–46:48]

• Texas: “Best run defense in the country” despite replacing top-tier DL talent (Murphy, Sweat, Collins, Broden).
• Heavy DT rotation; maybe not as talented but deep, fresh, and physical.
• Standouts: Ethan Burke (EDGE), Colin Simmons (run fits), Anthony Hill Jr. (LB), Ty Anthony Smith & Jelani McDonald (active, physical).
• Michael Taft (S) critical for run and pass D; team is far less effective without him.

6. Georgia Defense: Progress, Concerns, and Matchup with Texas

[47:36–56:49]

• Not the glory years’ DL, but rotating 9 guys—fresh legs.
• Best/most consistent: Christian Miller; Most talented: Elijah Griffin (freshman); Chris Cole (soph. LB) emerging.
• Not “violent” up front, rely on LB blitzes (CJ Allen, Raylen Wilson, Chris Cole).
• Secondary backs off, fewer explosive-play risks, but still prone to busts.
• Todd: “This is not going to be a dominant group, but if they can keep improving...there’s a chance they become...good enough.”
• Preview: Georgia’s LBs will need to carry the D vs Sark’s offense and Arch.

7. King Miller’s Rise: USC’s Preferred Walk-on Turned Star

[59:43–64:33]

• King Miller, former 4th-string walk-on, stepped up after injuries.
• 3 of last 4 games: 125+ yards, “one step, one cut” style, enough speed, tough runner.
• Unique: His twin brother (also a walk-on) is starting to get OL snaps.
• Stephen: “They need to pay this guy… and his brother!”
• Key for USC’s run at playoffs, especially if Waymond Jordan returns.

8. Marcel Reed Watch: Talented but High-Risk at Texas A&M

[64:49–75:17]

• Phenomenal mobility and “quickest first two steps of any QB.”
• Game plan vs Missouri designed to limit risk; only 11 key passing plays; 6 of those graded negative.
• Big issue: Unsettled “panic” in the pocket — feet/movement mechanics lead to inconsistent accuracy.
• “Calm feet” is correctable, but it’s not there yet.
• Todd: “Times running out… he’s capable, but doesn't have the tools yet to be more consistent as a passer. But it’s there, and it’s concerning.”

9. JMU’s Defense is Playoff Good, but Offense Lags Behind

[76:25–79:54]

• JMU: Possibly the nation’s most surprising playoff contender; “defense gives them a shot.”
• Coordinator Colin Hittner is aggressive—blitz, twists, run stunts.
• Standouts: Trent Hendrick (LB), Justin Eagle (CB), Mario Craver (WR).
• Weakness: Offense (QB Alonzo Barnett “not quite ready”; RBs Wayne Knight/Jordan Fuller solid but not game-changers)—“Don’t think they’re quite ready for a playoff appearance.”

10. The Future: Cal QB Jaron Kibe Sanga Poelli is a Star in the Making

[80:17–86:42]

• Cal’s true freshman lefty QB “Sanga Poelli” is a name to remember for 2028 NFL Draft.
• Led 18.5 point underdogs Cal to an OT win at Louisville:
  • 30/47, 323 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT.
  • “6’3, 225, ball jumps off his hand… delivers NFL throws already.”
• Not elite runner, but great feet/tempo/mechanics.
• “Aaron Rodgers stuff… from the left side.” [83:59]
• Cal lost Mendoza, but Sanga Poelli is why they didn’t panic: “If they keep him, he could change the ACC for years.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Mendoza:

  “Find me another 6’5”, 220+ QB with this kind of toughness… There isn’t one and there won’t be in 2026.” — Todd, [16:20]

• On Ty Simpson:

  “I will plant that flag at the top of this mountain: Ty Simpson is the standard at the quarterback position.” — Todd, [33:08]

• On Georgia’s run game:

  “They don’t care about how many yards they get… they just want to extend drives and wear your ass out.” — Stephen, [42:17]

• On King Miller (USC RB):

  “He is a legitimate talent… They need to pay this guy… King Miller’s been unbelievable picking up the slack for them.” — Stephen, [62:10]

• On JMU:

  “Statistically, the defense is really good… top 15 in a bunch of other categories… but I think they’re in trouble against Washington State in two weeks.” — Stephen, [78:08]

• On Cal’s Sanga Poelli:

  “He’s going to grow to be this unbelievably talented… San Capolotelli is so talented, Steve, it’s—preach. Okay?” — Todd, [82:39]
  “Aaron Rodgers stuff, from the left side.” — Todd, [83:59]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [04:27] Tape Truth #1: Pitt’s Run Defense & Notre Dame’s CJ Carr
• [09:51] Tape Truth #2: Fernando Mendoza’s Stock and Tape
• [26:45] Tape Truth #3: Ty Simpson is the Bar at QB
• [38:58] Tape Truth #4: Georgia’s Physical Run Identity
• [42:56] Tape Truth #5: Texas’ Elite Run Defense
• [47:36] Tape Truth #6: Georgia Defense’s Evolution
• [59:43] Tape Truth #7: King Miller (USC) Walk-on Story
• [64:49] Tape Truth #8: Marcel Reed’s Boomer-Bust Play
• [76:25] Tape Truth #9: JMU Defense and Playoff Aspiration
• [80:17] Tape Truth #10: Cal’s Sanga Poelli – 2028’s Name to Watch

Episode Flow/Style

McShay and Stephen maintain their signature analytical but conversational tone—deep football nerd banter, real-scout language (“onions plus,” “quarter count of panic,” “married feet to eyes”), rapid-fire, and with regular inside jokes and memorable analogies (“track meet between the hedges”; “preferred walk-on means: we prefer you to take the hits”).

Summary

This Week 11 edition of The McShay Show is a master class in player evaluation, game previewing, and football program insight. If you want to know which QBs are rising (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Cal’s Sanga Poelli), which coordinators are making a difference, why Georgia and Texas set up as a tactical chess match, and why some walk-ons (King Miller) become legends, this is the episode to catch. Every minute is jam-packed with advanced scouting, scheme breakdowns, and the tape truths that fuel the draft debate all year long.