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The McShay Show
What I’m Hearing: Edge Rushers Rising and Two Top-Five Shake-Ups. Plus, QB2 in Round 2?
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- [00:00]
Todd McShay
This episode is brought to you by no Bull. Every day is an opportunity to grow stronger, especially when you've got best in class award winning footwear backing you up. No bowl is a footwear brand for training and for daily life built to support you in your pursuit of physical, mental and emotional strength. And get this exclusive for the McShay show listeners. No bull is offering 30 off your order. Visit nobleproject.com SL MC for 30% off your entire order. That's N o b u L L P r o j e c t.com backslash McShay for 30% off. It's the McShay show presented by FanDuel. It's our time. It's officially NFL Draft season and you can get in on all the action with FanDuel. FanDuel has lots of ways to bet on the draft, like pick, position, team to draft a player, exact order, top 5 and 10 picks and so much more. When you win, you get paid instantly. FanDuel always has exclusive offers. The app is safe, secure and easy to use. So download FanDuel Sportsbook app today and make every moment more during the NFL draft, the ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg d help.com to learn more about the resources and help lines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 and older and present in select states. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com Boy, do we have a big one today. First of all, I got mensch to the west coast, to the left coast, to the best coast according to some first time here.
- [01:50]
Mel Kiper Jr.
First time.
- [01:51]
Todd McShay
I'm I'm excited to have you here. This is our big week. We told you from the beginning the draft ends in L. A. It's not in Green Bay freezing. It's right here in L A. And here we are mentioned. I flew in today, we landed, got a phone call as I'm coming back here, got in the hotel room. Wonderful crew. I couldn't be thankful enough and they've set it up. Here we are in this hotel room that we got upgraded for about 48 hours now. I got to change rooms to a regular room. I but nobody cares about that. The reason we're here and we're taping this on Sunday night. I'm just going to be transparent as we always are. Okay? The reason we're here is because I couldn't wait and we had to get this information out. I've had phone calls and conversations with friends inside the league, a lot of different contacts. Told you over 25 years and it's starting to come together and we wanted to share it all with you. So here we are three days from the draft and I gotta ask Mensch, you good?
- [02:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I'm great, man.
- [02:47]
Todd McShay
All right, Tucker, get me in the mood, man. What I'm hearing, that's. That's why we're here. It's the conversations. Follow along. Mensch is going to help reel me in. He'll interject with all of his insights and analysis as we go. But this is just a lot of. I've got notes everywhere and we're just going to kind of explain it. So here's what I want to explain. Right. Mensch. And I should mention it's Monday morning. You're watching this. We did tape it on Sunday night, but out just fresh off the presses, the what I'm Hearing newsletter. If you don't have the newsletter, please just go subscribe. This is the week. It's $1. You get it not only through this draft, it's run run to the podium. I call it run past the podium because you're going to get all of our stuff to May 31st. Okay. And that includes the way too early mock draft for 2026. I'm not here to promote a bunch of stuff. Also coming out later today we've got the AFC Mailbag. The questions, it was overwhelming the response for questions. We were going to do one mailbag. There were so many great questions. We decided to break it up for all 32 markets. So there's going to be something for everybody here. And if you, if you're into all of it, you've got to read the whole thing. Today is going to be the afc, tomorrow's the nfc. Okay. So on to what we've got. There are so many different directions. I can take this. You can tell by my energy level and I shouldn't be this excited and I should be exhausted. But I think the very first thing I wanted to share is something that we've known for a while. But when I'm talking to NFL personnel folks right in the league, most of them, general managers, assistant general managers, people in the that are going to be in the room for the draft. It keeps coming back to this concept match and this is where I want to start. Quarterback two in this class would be quarterback six or seven last year. Okay. Wide receiver one would be wide receiver four or five last year. Actually wide receiver five behind MHJ Malik, Neighbors, Roma, Dun, Brian Thomas. Okay. We all know the Quarterbacks from year ago, offensive tackle one, Will Campbell or Armand Menboo would be offensive tackle four or five last year behind alt Latham, Fashanu, Fuaga and maybe even Mims. So why do I bring that up as a jumping off point? Because every conversation I had it was, yes, I'm hearing the same thing. Will Campbell could go number four to the New England Patriots. And most people are like, I get it, but no one in the league thinks it's a great idea or that he's worth that pick. Okay, we'll get to the wide receivers in a minute and I've got some really interesting stuff, but nobody thinks if they're going in the top 10 or top 12, top 15, that it is worth the pick. And why is this important? Because there's other positions that are premium positions and we've got some non premium position players like Ashton Genti, the running back from Boise State. He might not be going in the top five, folks. We'll get to that in a minute. To the tight ends, I've been saying, I think for a while, I think Tyler Warren, Penn State and I think Colston, Loveland, Michigan, great tight ends, maybe only one of them now goes in the top 10, according to this news. Shocking, right? We will go through the entire top 10 for you and beyond. I want to start with the quarterbacks, though, and call it what you want, but I promise you it's what everyone wants to talk about in the league, even if they have a star at quarterback. Everyone's fascinated by this because we've had all these. And I want to say this, I'm wrong on some stuff and I'm going to admit where I'm dead wrong. Okay? The quarterback stuff, we've been a step ahead the whole way and I've gotten confirmation on a lot of things. And in fact, it may be a little bit more dire for these quarterbacks than we thought. Okay, we all know Cam Ward's going number one to Tennessee. That's a lock. Travis Hunter is going number two to Cleveland. According to everyone I've talked to in the league, out of the league, sources, insiders, everyone, Cleveland. Travis Hunters, too. Here's where it gets interesting. Okay, Shador Sanders, this. Remember I said last week, Shador Sanders is. Don't get overly excited about the, about everyone flying around all these private meetings the Giants flying to. It was, I think on Thursday was Boulder, Friday was Tuscaloosa and Saturday was Louisville. Right. Everything that we said last week lines up. This was about the second wave of quarterbacks. This was not about necessarily at number three. However, I do have this information. I've heard this now from multiple, more than three people. Sometimes the personnel department has an agenda or an opinion. Okay. And then the coaches have an agenda or an opinion. And I'm interested to get your take on this. I'm told by multiple sources. I'm not saying everyone in the scouting department for the New York Giants, but I'm saying all the rumors and all the buzz you've been hearing about these quarterback about Shador and the New York Giants and you keep hearing everyone say, and I told you I had that conversation last Sunday, a week ago, don't close the book on Shador or the Giants. Something's going on there. Something's going on. And it was and it still maybe is. And I'm not sure in the last 24 hours. But as of 48 hours ago, there's still a little push from the personnel department. That's Joe Shane, the general manager, his director of scouting, the college director, all the scouts. I can't say individually who it is, but apparently someone on that side or multiple people on that side are more, you know, let's really consider Shador 3. I've been told John Mara is staying out of it. So far, again, just sources. I haven't talked to the Mara family, but that there's a little bit more of a push than expected from the personnel people and that the coaching staff, obviously headed by Brian Dabel, the head coach, is anti taking Shador at 3. What are your initial thoughts when you hear all of this?
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Well, it's a difficult situation. You better get your house in order because if you, I mean, that's just a nightmare scenario. If you take a player that you're not all on the same page because going forward, what happens if you give a coach a player that he didn't want to draft and potentially that player finds out? I mean it, you're, it could get messy fast. So I think you have to get everyone on the same page. You also have to be, you also have to understand, you have to be big boys in the room and you have to understand whose job is whose job. And if I'm here to make the picks, then I'm going to make the picks and I'm not here to piss you off, but I'm going to do what I think is best for this program and you have to deal with it. And whether or not that's a dynamic that can work. But if you're looking at a high, all of these jobs are High stress, high pressure. But if you're in the Giants organization, it's that much more difficult. These guys need to win now. And now you're going to potentially throw this, I don't know, dynamite into the situation.
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Todd McShay
Yeah, I don't think it's gotten to the point where there's like this tussle. And I think that both parties are trying to. I think it's more of a, hey, let's go out there, let's work them out again. Let's maybe see if we can change some minds or get a different perspective on it. Okay, here's what I want to say. This is me taking off my. All the phone calls, that hat. And putting on, like, who I am. I don't care about the wins and losses with the New York Giants under Brian Dabel. You hired him because he's one there. Let me explain this to you, folks. There's only a handful, and it's not a large handful of people in the league that I truly trust. Can that understand offense, have the mind of and can develop quarterbacks the way I respect Brian Dabel. I've said that to you from the beginning. It has not panned out. And wins and losses. Guess what? He didn't pick. He didn't pick the last quarterback, Daniel Jones. Okay? So this is his opportunity. And maybe it's not this year, and maybe he's got foresight to know it's not this year. And yeah, if you want to use a two on a quarterback, fine, I'll use a two. But we're trying to win some games now, right? Okay. And so when I say that, I say that because even if he. Even if the quarterback they draft this year, wherever it is, even if he outlasts Brian Daboll there, I know one thing I can count on this man for definitively. I know there's a lot of other things, but I can definitively count on this guy, this man's expertise on offense and the quarterback position. So I'm trusting that guy. And I don't know that it's come to the point where the John Mara and the Mara family have to get involved, but I'm trusting that guy. So that's my analysis on it. But as of right now, it sounds like the mayor of family's not gotten involved. I don't think it's this big tussle. I'm not trying to report some. I'm just saying that's where all these rumors have come. That's when you hear certain people on television come out and say, I'm not sure after we reported last week there's something going on. That's why. That's the why. That's the behind the scenes. Now here's what's interesting. Let's play it forward. This is the fascinating part. And I've had some really interesting conversations up to and through today. Hey, we got off the plane. I got back to the hotel call. I didn't expect, knew it was going to happen. Didn't expect it today. Started going through the board, okay. As I've said and it got confirmed today and I didn't need confirmation because I knew I kind of confirmed it for the other, other, other side. New Orleans is not taking Shador at 9. And in fact, New Orleans isn't taking shador probably at 40. I'll say it again, New Orleans probably isn't taking Shador at 40 if he was there. Okay, 21 now because here's the thing that's starting to happen now. People are like, we got a plan for draft night. And there's a reason, by the way, right?
- [13:05]
Mel Kiper Jr.
You tell me why Shador is not going to the draft now and Jackson Dart's not going to the draft. It seems that something they know, something that maybe we don't know yet.
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Todd McShay
I want to go back to what I started with. QB 2 in this class would be QB 6 or 7 a year ago. And we, we've known this all along. I like Jackson Dart a lot. I've got Jackson Dart slightly ahead of Shador. Contrary to some belief, I actually really like Shador. Give me Stefanski with Cleveland Browns in Shador. Give me a Stefanski type offensive system inside a dome, warm weather. I like Shador more. Okay. But I'm now hearing and this is not my information. I got it recently. Yeah, Pittsburgh likes him and Mike Tomlin does like Shador. Don't know if it's enough to take him at 21. Whoa.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, because that was a floor. That was the basement, right?
- [14:01]
Todd McShay
The floor.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Now the floor is dropping out.
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Todd McShay
The floor's soft. It's not dropping out. It's not dropping out. I want to make it too harsh. The floor just. It's softer. It's softer. The floor is softer. That was shocking to me. Here's another thing that started talking about scenarios, right? Because for all along now the Giants are private playing Boulder, Tuscaloosa, Louisville and everyone started thinking, okay, so now we're going to probably and I'm at fault for this and who knows, who knows? You never know what's going to Happen. Ownership gets involved, another team is kind of lurking in the weeds, hanging out by the chicken coop. You never know. None of us knew Atlanta was taking Michael Penix a year ago. However, while all the conversation was focused on, you got to get up ahead of Pittsburgh. Now, what's going on, the conversations inside the league, the people who are in the know are like, maybe we can sit back and wait until just past Pittsburgh. Maybe we don't, maybe we don't have to move up. But he starts to fall past Pittsburgh and we pick a spot and move up. Here's another thing I heard, excuse me, Pittsburgh doesn't have a two. They don't have a second rounder. Maybe they exploit the situation and say, hey, listen, we're, we're divided on this thing. Come on up if you want to take it. So I went down and I looked at this and actually while on a conversation with someone about, I don't know, an hour and a half ago, 800. It's the trade value chart. Take it for what it's worth. It always gives us a feel and a jumping off point for what it could be. But this part was fascinating to me. Let's do the math together. 800 points is what that 21st pick is worth. The Pittsburgh currently has. Remember, they don't have a second round pick. 560 points is what? The 34th overall pick. That's a giants second round pick. It's the second pick of the second round. 800 minus 560. I wrote down 260. That's funny. 240. 240 is, is what that is. That's almost exactly what the Giants third round pick is. It's 65. So if the Giants were to sit there at 34 and wait it out, but make a phone call to Pittsburgh, or maybe Pittsburgh calls them.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
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Todd McShay
And it's like, we're not sure. If you want to come get him, come get them now or else we might wind up taking them. Or there's another, another team. All the espionage and stuff that goes on, it would, it would cost them their third this year to move up to call that bluff. Here's the other thing, and this is me now talking to people in the league who just understand ball. Dable has worked with guys who are bigger, more mobile. Right. Josh Allen, kind of. That's what he's used to. Doesn't mean he can, he can't work with Shador. Doesn't mean like that's the only thing that will work. But just like I talked about Kellen Moore, Remember the conversation we had? Kellen Moore, three ocs, three OC jobs, most recently Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and. And Jalen Hurts. They're more Jackson Dart.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
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Todd McShay
Brian Dable's guys are more Jackson Dart. Here's what. Here's what. More dart than shoulder.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Love and say that for a while.
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Todd McShay
Yeah, but we're three days out from the draft. When, when, when you're watching this, it's probably three days out from the draft. It's three days and we're on the west coast and nine hours or whatever it is.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
So give me. Give me the over under right now.
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Todd McShay
Thank you.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
How many quarterbacks go into the first round?
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Todd McShay
Oh, I'm so glad you asked that. I'm so glad you asked that. I think Fanduel. I don't know if they had a number up, but I've seen. I think the number was at two and a half, but it was like. It was like minus 340 or something high to take the over. I had this conversation and again, people in the league like talking about it, and it's almost like a guy. Like someone might know something, some information. I talked to someone today who was like, honestly, if it was at 2, I may. I might take the under. He goes, I'd rather take it. I'd rather bet on one than I would three. That was the quote. Wow. Wow. We're getting there.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
So there is a legitimate chance. We see one quarterback go in the first round.
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Todd McShay
Here's also what I've heard. Don't expect. I'm not saying it won't happen. There's not an expectation that Cleveland's going to move up. Cleveland's going to play the weight game. Maybe that means Cleveland likes Shador. Yeah, we'll team him up with Travis, his old teammate, but we ain't giving up a third for it. Maybe they. Yeah, we like Shador, but we also like Jackson Dart and we like Tyler Schuck.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Right. We don't see a big difference in these two, in these players.
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Todd McShay
It's fascinating. It really is.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
So that's interesting because I thought there was a minute in this process, and I think there's all this momentum and all these changes and this happens every cycle, but there was a minute in this cycle where it looked like maybe four would go in the first round.
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Todd McShay
Yes. Well, now I'm glad you mentioned fork. Go ahead. Well, I was just going to say.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
The way I was reading the tea leaves, whereas. And it's. It's interesting how you put it. Now all these teams are Doing all their background on these quarterbacks. They're falling in love with quarterbacks. And they're gonna, they're gonna pick these quarterbacks early because they're doing all these work on them. And you're right, they are. But it's not for what I thought it was. It's for which one of these guys could we possibly get later on? And we want to know which one we might prefer. And maybe we like three or four of them there. Maybe like two or three of them there.
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Todd McShay
We literally had this conversation a week ago. Dan. Correct, Dan. Dan Comers in the background. Right. About a week, maybe 10 days ago. This is about the second wave of quarterbacks. And I, I, I felt like I knew it. Now it's like I know it.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, right.
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Todd McShay
And I'm proud of that, like, because sometimes you got to put a little football analysis into it. Here's the other part. And now we're off the Shador thing. Now Shadors, if he doesn't go three if something. If that tug doesn't somehow, like, reach an impasse and get bigger than what it reportedly or allegedly is right now, and the Merrill family has to step in and something happens. It's unexpected. And as I was reminded just an hour and a half ago, like, we've been on Wednesday night and remember Baker Mayfield.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
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Todd McShay
Okay. That was nonsensical. My good friend and six time executive of the year, Bill Pollian. I'll never. I was there was calling the greatest information person in the history of information in any sport, Adam Schefter. The report was asinine. There's no way Baker made. That's people loose lips sink shit chips. I think was his quote that night. And Bill, I love you. You know I do. I tell all the great stories. But we, we've all been wrong. We've all picked our spots. That was that. But that, that's what I'm saying. The draft is so much fun because we think we have the answers. Then there's this like misinformation cycle. And then we get close to the draft and you start to get a little narrower picture of what's going on. And here we are, right. Okay. Three days out. The Saints. Remember I said all along. And I've told you I'm going to tell you when I'm wrong. And maybe it's starting to look like the history is correct. Mickey Loomis, the general manager for New Orleans, just go back and look at his history. Just do a quick Google search if you want. Like, if there's a guy he wants, he'll go up and maybe give a little bit more than the value chart to go get him. And doesn't matter where it is, he's going to target and find that guy. If it is Dart, he'll do that.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Mm.
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Todd McShay
I'm told New Orleans isn't inclined to move either. So we're like, Cleveland's not moving, New Orleans isn't moving. If these are all accurate reports. And so it's just the Giants against themselves right now and maybe Pittsburgh. But if there's another quarterback outside of Shador that there's love for in the building, and maybe that's Brian Dabel, the only guy that I actually trust implicitly, or I shouldn't say that, the guy that I trust the most in that building when it comes to quarterbacks, I might want to trust him. And if he likes another guy, maybe we don't get into this mess. Maybe we hang on to our third round pick. Maybe we go get a, a cornerback or backup running back who can work in a rotation with Tyrone Tracy.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Like there's a lot of good mid round talent by the way.
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Todd McShay
A ton.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
So we talk about how, a lot of people talk about how weak this class is and at the top you can maybe make that argument, but there's not an elite. You know, we just talked about it, right? The first tackle is the, the fifth or sixth tackle, the first receivers, the fourth or whatever. You know, when you put it in that perspective, it doesn't look great. But when you start going down the line and the depth of these positions at, at edge, a defensive tackle, a running back, a tight end, you start seeing that like you can get starters, a lot of starters in this draft. Now are you willing to give up a starter to go up and get Shador Sanders? I'm not sure you are right. You know, you're giving up another asset plus that. I don't know man, it seems like.
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Todd McShay
A lot to ask.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
I think, you know, reading, reading the way it's going right now, trust your.
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Todd McShay
Instinct and stick and that, that's why my friend, all of these teams are going out. It's for different reasons. I've never, I have never in 25 years seen four quarterbacks get as many private workouts and have private visits. More privates than these four quarterbacks have in a two and a half, three week span leading up to the draft. And especially what the Giants just, just did. I've never seen it with that number of quarterbacks. You don't do that for the Number three pick. You do that to make a decision and to try. Maybe it's Brian saying, hey, let's go out and let's look at these three. Let me help convince you guys that there is somebody else besides Shador. Doesn't have to be Shador because they.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Would only work out sort and only be just like Tennessee's doing with Cam.
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Todd McShay
Exactly. Okay, so we move on from that. So the quarterbacks are dropping. Absolutely dropping. And maybe it's just one in the first round. I would bet right now it's two. Three will be a little bit of a surprise at this point. I think teams are going to sit back and wait. So what's happened at the top? And I will. And it brings me back to the premium positions. Premium.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Hold on, though.
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Todd McShay
Yeah, yeah.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Who's the second quarterback? What's your instinct tell you?
- [24:41]
Todd McShay
If I had to bet, because I know some people lean on us this time of year to make financial decisions, I would still like 40, 50% of Pittsburgh at 21 with Shador is better than like a 20, 20%. Like maybe a team trades up for Jackson Dart.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Right. Even though he fits. He fits more. He has more landing spots.
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Todd McShay
Jackson Dart does.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Jackson Dart does. He fits more teams.
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Todd McShay
Yes.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
It doesn't mean that one of those teams is going to get in the first round. Whereas Pittsburgh might look at him as a legitimate guy. They might take, is what I'm saying, Right?
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Todd McShay
Correct. Okay, so let's catch our breath. Let's just go to the top of the board. And this reflects all the conversations I've been having. I just told you about the offensive tackles. Four, fourth or fifth last year. Wide receivers, you know, fifth last year. Offensive tackle, we just said fourth or fifth. And the quarterback, two is six or seven. So in these conversations I'm having and you start to. I have notes and you write down and you start to circle patterns. Right.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
So many notes.
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Todd McShay
I mean, it's outrageous. I hope no one can see names, screenshots. I know the tricky part is this. Everyone in the league. Well, let's go back to the New York Giants. Abdul Carter will be the pick. If everything goes as. As planned. Okay. Then you get to New England at four. And there's been a lot of rumors about if Abdul falls and Howie Roseman's reaching out about A.J. brown. I just. I don't foresee it happening. And we'll come. I promise you. I'll. I'll make a call. We'll have. We'll do a video thing from. From us having lunch outside tomorrow. If we have to. If I hear something different, I will let everyone know immediately. But let's go with Abdul Carter here. We all think that that's going to be the case. The conversation I have in the league is that these offensive tackles do not belong. New England needs an offensive tackle desperately. And I talk to people, right, and they're like, and here's what, here's one of the conversations I had. I thought it was fascinating. If you draft, if you draft Campbell. Yes. I promise you, you're getting a leader on that team. You're getting the alpha dog in that room. You're getting a guy who's standing up in front of Drake Manning. He's going to lay his life on the line and you love that. You get a guy who moves really well on his feet, and I promise you he'll be a great guard. And he might, if things go well, he'll be a solid starting left tackle. The problem is Todd, and this is what I heard. The problem is Todd, it's the fourth pick, right? And we've got some dudes on the board, and this is a draft without a lot of dudes. And so how do you pass on 4? But you're trapped because no one wants to move up. You got this left tackle issue. And other people, some people are like, hey, scheme, it's. There's going to be free, you know, maybe a trade. Like, there's other ways to fill this void. But everyone still thinks it's going to be Campbell at 4. When you talk to people in the league, too, here's the other problem that's going on universally. I have lists of all, like, literally lists. Some teams are giving, helping me with like, degrades and everything. Everyone across the board, it's Hunter and Carter, 1, 2. They are the elite. Elite. Okay, then that next tier, for the most part, is some combination of Genti Ashton, Genti, running back from Boise State, Tyler Warren, tight end from Penn State. Okay. And Brandon Graham, unbelievable interior defensive lineman.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Mason Graham.
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Todd McShay
Sorry. Mason Graham. Yeah, I'm all over the place. Mason Graham, unbelievably talented. We love his tape, love everything about him. But he's a short, armed interior defensive lineman who people aren't convinced is going to be a phenomenal. I shouldn't say that. There are a couple people who question, is he going to be a phenomenal pass rusher? Okay, is Jalen Walker in that group? I'm glad you mentioned it, because what I'm hearing from everyone in the league is like, this is a year where the Premium players are at non premium positions and. But you've got these other guys who are just shy, just shy of the. Of that elite grade. But like right there. Okay. And they're pass rushers so get ready for it. And yes, New England may make a mistake and take Campbell based off our board. May turn out to be a good pick, may work out, wish the best for him. Understand the people are legitimately like I understand the predicament. You know, maybe they have they so. But we've got a bunch of dudes that can rush the quarterback. It's the second most important thing in this national Football League. They're going to fly off the board.
- [29:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Make your Campbell cop talk about who. Who.
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Todd McShay
Thank you. So the conversation, Joe Tuney. I was talking to someone that's very well respected in the league and he said the problem is they're going to. I'm just afraid that they're going to Joe Tuney him to death. And I knew what he meant but he's like, I want you to think back to the Super Bowl. He's like, it's. He goes share that with everyone. It's fresh on everyone's mind. Joe Tooney's been a long time Pro bowl awesome player in the league. Guard, guard, 32 and 5, 8 inch arms or something which Will Campbell got right. 33, whatever.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
It's in that same 33 because those combine measurements, man. But we'll say 30, short arm.
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Todd McShay
They're gonna Joe Tune him to death, right? And he specifically they're going to long, long arm him all day long.
- [30:37]
Mel Kiper Jr.
And the flip side is you see those Eagles pass rushers getting after the greatest quarterback in the game and you're looking at that and you're going into this draft and you're thinking, do I want that kind of player or do I want this kind of a player?
- [30:48]
Todd McShay
And everyone I talk to in the league that is not in a position like New England's in at number four is saying and it is not in a position like the Giants. Some people in their personnel department, when they're not in a position where they don't have this need tugging at them to make a. What other people in the league would say, and I wouldn't disagree, would be a mistake in terms of take the best damn football player out there. When you're not in that position, you see clearer. And they're seeing a board with Abdul Carter, Jalen Walker, Mikel Williams, Shemar Stewart, James Pierce and Mike Green staring at you. Oh, and by the way, Brandon Graham, Walter Nolan Kenneth Grant, Derek Harmon. Not in that order necessarily. I can feel the heat coming off you because I didn't say Harmon's name.
- [31:44]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Because of the talent.
- [31:47]
Todd McShay
That's 10 guys I just listed that can rush the quarterback and they're all really talented. And so here's what's going to happen and I'm going to get back to the surprise thing that I just heard too, in a minute. From 6 to 17. Let me list off these teams. We start at number three, actually with the Giants. They're gonna. Their common sense is going to reign supreme. The Giants will take Abdul Carter at 3. Here's a surprise. I don't think Ashton Genti's going number six to the Raiders. And I kind of got that sense in the press conference the other day and that doesn't mean anything, but I've had conversations where it's like not taking action. I don't think Ashton Genti is going to go. I think what they want, everyone wants in on these dogs, these guys that can get after the quarterback. Right?
- [32:36]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [32:37]
Todd McShay
I think, I think the Raiders could go edge rusher. I think the jets could be a surprise team. Okay. I think Tyler Warren's in play, but I think this is Aaron Glenn and I think this is a defense that's good and get talent, but they want to be exceptional. I think that they could go defense with this pick. I've heard names like Jalen Walker. I've heard names like Jade Baron.
- [33:06]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Huh?
- [33:07]
Todd McShay
Mason Graham there. Okay, so watch out for the jets to be more defense. This is new. This is New Carolina. We've known all along at 8, so now we're talking 3, then 6, 7, 8. Carolina's going edge. They want Walker. Might not be him. Offensive tackle could be, depending on who's off the boarded edge. But also Brandon Graham could be there as well. Okay, so that 7, 8, 9 range, 6, 7, 8, 9. Vegas Jets, Panthers, Saints. And I already told you they're not taking a quarterback at 9. We told you 10 days ago, they're not taking a quarterback at night. If they take a quarterback in this draft, it's a. It's a Jackson dart or Jackson dart type. It is not Shador Sanders. Okay, here's what I'm hearing. They all want Walker. They all want Jaylen Walker. You can't have all of. Not all of them can have them. If it's not Walker with the jets again, Tyler Warren's on the board. This, this Jade Baron, like, keep an eye on that thing. Brandon Graham. Okay, Carolina, Walker, they also had a Great work. Or an interesting workout recently in Athens, Georgia with Walker and Mikel. So watch out for Mikel there as a possibility. Okay. Mikel is a hot name. If you notice people were like, he's in the 20s, he's maybe 15 to 25 range. I said this back in like November when we did a breakdown on him. You bet on this guy's traits, right?
- [34:39]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [34:39]
Todd McShay
And you love him.
- [34:40]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I do.
- [34:40]
Todd McShay
You love him.
- [34:41]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [34:41]
Todd McShay
And you know, I think his.
- [34:42]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I think his game translates to the NFL.
- [34:44]
Todd McShay
The league loves him.
- [34:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Physical, tough.
- [34:47]
Todd McShay
I saw a board the other day with a evaluator that we both trust. Like he's in like the top six or seven overall.
- [34:56]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Okay, interesting.
- [34:57]
Todd McShay
And that's. I think it's reflective of what's going on in the league. These edge rushers are all over the place.
- [35:00]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I would never work out next to Jalen Walker if I were him, by the way.
- [35:04]
Todd McShay
So here we are. So we got six Vegas, seven, Jets eight Carolina nine New Orleans. I'm talking a defensive run. Vast majority could be edge rushers. I'm talking Walker after Carter goes through Walker Michel. And this is, this is where it's get gets interesting. New Orleans. This is what I'm told. Cam Jordan's at the very end. Some people think he's at the end.
- [35:28]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yes.
- [35:28]
Todd McShay
This year is the year to bring in Cam gets one more year. Let's help develop. We got two guys in this draft that look and this is the exact quote when you're. When you're going and trying to project Todd, think Cam Jordan body type. Think who looks. Who looks most like.
- [35:48]
Mel Kiper Jr.
If you get another Cam Jordan, that'd be nice. I mean he's had an unreal career.
- [35:51]
Todd McShay
So I get the defense built around him. It just makes sense. Right. So the two guys that fit that are Mikel and Shamar. Shamar Stewart. Okay. So keep an eye on those two big names to be this year. Gets have this veteran who's willing to help who's. It was a saint, you know, loves the organization. So he's going to help coach him up, get him ready for 20, 26. Hand the torch off. Okay, so that's all I'm here. Who Two more edge teams I want to fill you in on Atlanta. James Pierce and Walter Nolan. Two guys. I keep hearing they've got some red flags, some football character red flags attached with them. I'm hearing Atlanta is maybe perfectly fine to not to overlook those things. You know another organization that does the Cincinnati Bengals picket 17. So whichever guys aren't there, Mike Green James Pierce Mike Green attacked his issues head on. People in the league were surprised he did it at the the combine with the two accusations, sexual assault and he talked about it freely and you can look that up too. But I'm told and James Pierce stuff, we've kind of covered the football character. We'll leave it at that. But I'm told those two organizations would be willing to overlook it. And Walter Nolan's another guy. Excuse me to keep into consideration at 15. Okay, so what a run. Yeah, that's Giants, Vegas, Jets, Carolina, New Orleans, Atlanta, Cincinnati. Seven teams could be seven edge rushers or six and maybe throw in a defensive tackle in the first 17. Okay, that's that this message is brought.
- [37:40]
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- [38:44]
Todd McShay
The McShay show is brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL Draft is here, and if you want to make every pick a little more exciting, FanDuel is where it's at. The app is simple, secure and packed with exclusive offers. Plus, when you win, you'll get paid instantly. There's no waiting around. And if you think the draft is just about waiting for some names to get called, think again. With FanDuel, you can bet on pick positions, which team will draft a player, exact orders, top five top 10 picks, and a ton more, including some ringer specials. And right now, new customers can bet just five bucks and get 250 in bonus bets if you win. So before the draft kicks off, download the FanDuel app and get ready to make every moment unforgettable. FanDuel official partner of the NFL must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in D.C. first online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com let's just go back to it. The one team I didn't get through Jacksonville. Everyone think I keep. I kept saying Brandon. I'm told Brandon Graham might not go to Jacksonville.
- [40:12]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Mason Graham.
- [40:13]
Todd McShay
Why do I keep Brandon?
- [40:14]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Both Michigan guys, right?
- [40:15]
Todd McShay
They're both Michigan guys. Yeah. Mason players. Mason Graham. I'm worked up today.
- [40:21]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Man had 12 hour travel day.
- [40:25]
Todd McShay
Mason Graham apparently so and this makes sense and we'll find out where to be sad. It makes sense. I thought James Gladstone comes in general new general manager coming from The Rams. The 32 inch arms from Braden Fisk. 31 inch arms for Kobe Turner. They've been great players. Got good deals on.
- [40:43]
Mel Kiper Jr.
They did get them later though.
- [40:44]
Todd McShay
They did get them later.
- [40:45]
Mel Kiper Jr.
So.
- [40:45]
Todd McShay
Yeah. But more importantly, I'm told to keep an eye on offensive skill players here. This is a again, kind of like I talk about with Brian Dabel. I talk about if you're going to hire the quarterback coach and the guy in offense and I talk about Aaron Glenn. Like let's be great at what we hired our guy to be great at. And I think we all need to shift our focus now to Jacksonville offensive weapon. And the first name that comes to mind is what?
- [41:15]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Ted McMillan.
- [41:16]
Todd McShay
Arizona for wide receiver. Big receiver.
- [41:21]
Mel Kiper Jr.
You think they go tight end?
- [41:22]
Todd McShay
What about why. Why wouldn't it be Ashton Genti?
- [41:25]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Ashton Genti. Yeah.
- [41:26]
Todd McShay
I think he could be in play.
- [41:27]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Get another Penn State tight end.
- [41:29]
Todd McShay
I don't think it's tight end. I'm, I'm. I'm getting a strong sense as dogs are barking in the back of the hotel. This is why we do it. I love. I love the chaos. I love the not. I hope, I hope men ordered room service. I'm talking too long and someone knocks on the door. But I. Can I share something with you guys? I want to share something. I just finished my. And Dan's gonna laugh when I say this. My preliminary top 300.
- [41:59]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Dan looks concerned.
- [42:00]
Todd McShay
I actually think it's final because I don't give a fine bleep because I believe in these grades. I had A. And I had it coming to. Jesus with myself in the mirror. I love this sounds a little weird, but I had a talking to. Like, I went back, I looked at all my reports. I re wrecked. I got a clear brain. I got all the mess and nonsense out. And I put Ted McMillan at 50.
- [42:23]
Mel Kiper Jr.
The gloves are off.
- [42:24]
Todd McShay
The gloves are off. I'm not no more. I don't have. I don't have a best available sitting up on abc, you know, like, I don't have to listen to all the backlash for two hours. I don't care. It's what I believe. And I've talked to people in the league. They have them in that same range. But there are other people in the league that really love Ted McMillan. And that's the fascinating fun part about what we do. Like, truly.
- [42:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [42:47]
Todd McShay
How can I have 50? How can three other people that are, like, really well respected in the league have him second round grade and he could go number five.
- [42:56]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah, right.
- [42:57]
Todd McShay
He could go number 12 to Dallas. And I'm.
- [42:59]
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's that kind of year.
- [43:00]
Todd McShay
If it's not, if it's not 5, it could very well be 12. I'm told that there's, there's. I'm getting reports that it could be Tet there. And if it's not Ted, it might be. It might be Matthew Golden. Look, wide receiver for Dallas. That's in my notes here. That's fascinating.
- [43:17]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [43:18]
Todd McShay
Ginty or T.E. mcMillan. But it's all about. Listen, you got to understand, again, I'm talking to sane people in the league who have been doing this a really long time. And I'm not saying these organizations haven't and all that, but. But these same people have also shared experiences where they made really big mistakes that they regret, that they try not to repeat. And one of them, most recently, I had a great conversation with someone. The quarterback reaching for the quarterback. Other is the need. It's the need at something. And now maybe it's, well, we got this new offensive coordinator and we got Trevor Lawrence, and time's running out and things haven't looked good. We got to get him a weapon. And. And I should say go back to. Go back to Clemson. This is what they've got to be thinking. I don't have this information from anybody else. I'm coming up with it as we talk about it. Go back to Clemson. What did he have, giraffes? Yeah, he had giraffes at wide receiver. They had big, tall, beautiful. I stood in the sideline. Big, tall, beautiful wide receivers in White and orange and purple, you know, so.
- [44:29]
Mel Kiper Jr.
They'Re getting that guy ball up.
- [44:33]
Todd McShay
I think that's what they're going to go for for Trevor Lawrence. And by the way, you need that when your quarterback has not been consistently accurate and he likes to throw to an area and then Trevor, unfortunately, has not been consistently accurate. So that's. That makes football sense. But again, what are we doing? Tet McMillan is not one of the five best players. We got all these great edge rushers. We got a running back. If you're going to. I don't know. It's going to be because the fourth overall pick in this draft and the fifth overall pick in this draft may be players that have absolutely no business going that high. I said it. Miami, keep an eye on this. Just going now because. So now we've gone through the whole list all the way down to. Oh, no, Chicago. This is what I wanted to get to. Hey, Bears fans. Hey, Bears fans. Here we go. If I told you 48 hours ago, we may be sitting on the clock, folks. On the clock with Ashton Genty and Tyler Warren.
- [45:37]
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's a dream come true after the offseason they've had. Yeah, it's. It's a pretty good deal.
- [45:41]
Todd McShay
And we got Ben Johnson.
- [45:43]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yep.
- [45:43]
Todd McShay
And we brought in three offensive linemen. And we're going to get Caleb. Right. Like. And we pick again, by the way, at 40, at 39 and 41. We might fix this thing enough. Right? I'm fired up. I'm not a Bears fan. I don't even have family or a friend. That's a huge Bears fan. That's amazing. The Bears are sitting there at 10.
- [46:06]
Mel Kiper Jr.
There's so much scar tissue with that fan base. You think they're optimistic.
- [46:09]
Todd McShay
And by the way, there's an outside weird shot that it could be Brandon Graham, too.
- [46:13]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Mason Graham.
- [46:14]
Todd McShay
I. Can I do it again? I actually. It's now a bit. It's now. Yeah.
- [46:18]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Now we're just doing it.
- [46:19]
Todd McShay
No, I'm actually not. But it's hysterical that I am still doing it.
- [46:23]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Do you think Bears fans, though, with all that scar tissue, do you think they're. They're optimistic or are they, like, something's gonna.
- [46:28]
Todd McShay
I don't care what they are. They can't get excited for the fact they could be on the board with Tyler Warren, who I thought for a while they should be. Yes, but, but. And Tyler's a wonderful, wonderful player. But, like, there's something about Ashton Genti, Ben Johnson.
- [46:43]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yes.
- [46:44]
Todd McShay
Okay.
- [46:46]
Mel Kiper Jr.
It makes sense for them.
- [46:49]
Todd McShay
And by the Way Also thrilled because I got news for you folks. If Ashton Jinty goes 10, Tyler Warren's still on the board. Hey Colts fans. Hey Colts. Hey Chargers fans. Like these two, these tight ends that belong in the top 10, they're that good. I'm literally talking to people in the league and they're like they're always in that list. It's the two at the top. Travis Hunter, right?
- [47:15]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah.
- [47:15]
Todd McShay
Abdul Carter, those are the two at the top. Then it's like Ginty, Warren Loveland mixed in with edge rushers.
- [47:23]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yep.
- [47:25]
Todd McShay
This is going to be fascinating.
- [47:27]
Mel Kiper Jr.
It's going to be fun.
- [47:29]
Todd McShay
Did I miss anything?
- [47:30]
Mel Kiper Jr.
No. This is the last year was fun because you had all those talented quarterbacks and you kind of knew where guys were slotted going into it. This is fun because it's watch out. I mean there's so many pivot points in the draft. You know, what's Las Vegas do? Well, what they do could potentially cause like waterfall effect through the rest of the first round. I like not knowing I'm okay. I'm a fan of chaos.
- [47:52]
Todd McShay
I, I, I started to combine all my notes. I'm gonna pull this up and I'll leave you with this. I wrote somewhere in here. Ah, this is a quote I got yesterday and it made me actually take a step back back and think he's clearly. Sometimes they like we've shared information, we talk about players, all this stuff. Sometimes they're trying to get me to like they're trying to give me a point but they can't give me the actual point. Here's the quote. Don't be so narrow minded in your thinking like the rest of them are right now. Who's in People who do what we do.
- [48:26]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yep.
- [48:27]
Todd McShay
Because everyone is putting the same dudes. He didn't even say this, but I knew what he meant because it was coming off this conversation. Everyone's putting the same dudes in the same places. Mason Graham has been going five to Jacksonville forever, right?
- [48:42]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yes.
- [48:44]
Todd McShay
Jets have been.
- [48:44]
Mel Kiper Jr.
I like that pick by the way.
- [48:45]
Todd McShay
Jets have been Memboo and, and Memboo or Warren forever. Maybe it's a defensive player.
- [48:55]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Yeah. I like your thought about the coaching staff by the way. That makes complete sense to me.
- [48:59]
Todd McShay
Jacksonville. Think about it. Jacksonville at five has been look at every. I bet you nine out of ten mock drafts out there is Mason Graham, Vegas, Ashton Jinty, Jets, Warren or Mimbo. Don't be so narrow minded in your thinking like the rest of them right now. Pretty fascinating. I hope you enjoyed it. Like this is Fun. I love this part again.
- [49:27]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Started.
- [49:27]
Todd McShay
Yeah, we're just getting started. We just got to la. Let's go get a meal. Let's. Everyone calm down. Everyone. Everyone calm down. Let's go get a meal. Let's regroup, get a good night's sleep. We'll meet on the Strand. We'll do. We'll do some push. We'll see if we can get to the squat machine at Rosillo's house this week. We'll get it. We'll get worked out. We'll get our minds right. We're back in the studio later today. If you're watching on Monday, that's actually tomorrow. Mention I are gonna good night's sleep tonight. No messing around tonight, Mitch. We're gonna be back in tomorrow. We're gonna be every single day this week. And please, please don't forget if you're still watching, if you haven't turned this off already. Like, we're fired up about Thursday night. One hour before the NFL draft. It's seven, Dan. What is seven? 7:00pm Are we on Eastern? It's an hour before the NFL draft.
- [50:13]
Mel Kiper Jr.
Sounds about right.
- [50:14]
Todd McShay
We'll. We'll know when to show up on time. I believe the draft starts at 8 Eastern. We'll be starting at 7 Eastern. Okay. And we will be live throughout the entire process. We got a special guest joining us. He might work for this company. He might have a vested interest, you might have a very vested interest in what's going on at pick number four. Might be wearing me out on text, but might be on to some things too. Like, it's gonna be fun. We're with Rosillo on Saturday and we'll have the, the second round of the draft will be with you as well. So appreciate it. I hope you enjoyed. This has been, this has been a blast. And stick with us this week and we'll. We'll see you on the other side later. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + and present in D.C. gambling problem, call 1-800- GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincenectic or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, Hope is here. Visit Gambling Helpline ma.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New.