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Todd McShay
We've got a fun one today. What's really going on with Arch Manning? I've got a lot to share. Plus our good friend Stanford Steve joins Stevie Boy and I to preview and pick another juicy slate of games. It's week four in college football and just 217 days until the NFL draft meant. You good?
Stanford Steve
I'm great.
Todd McShay
Let's roll. This is the McShay show, presented by FanDuel, and college football Saturdays are already delivering. Every game means something right now. Ranking shift, upsets hit and the best place to stay on top of it all, fanduel. Whether you're riding a noon kickoff or betting the late games, FanDuel lets you bet it your way. Same game parlays, live betting, player props, alt lines. Whatever your angle is, it lives in the app. So if you're watching the action, bet on it with FanDuel. So download the app or head to FanDuel.com McShay and make every Saturday count. The ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and help lines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. We got a lot to get to today, Mitch.
Mensch
Sure do.
Todd McShay
You excited?
Stanford Steve
I am.
Todd McShay
I'm not excited about this first part.
Mensch
I'm very excited about the second part.
Todd McShay
But I am interested here.
Mensch
I mean, interested to hear what you have to say about Arch. It's worth talking about.
Todd McShay
The second part's going to be a lot of fun. We get. We got a juicy slate dessert, as I said. Yes. Yes. So we got to get through our vegetables to get to our dessert. Steve Coughlin, better known as Stanford Steve, joining our show, good friend of the show. I mean, we take all the three of us are on a text thread that, like, is never ending. And I love it. He's obviously got some insight. He's coming off of an awesome primetime game. He's got another one this week, I believe He's a Florida, Florida, Miami. And that's right. Yep. Yeah. And so. So we'll get to that in a minute. We'll get to some housekeeping later. I, I just, I get asked a lot, Steve. Right. About Arch Manning. And I see a lot of people out there throwing takes and you know what that does to my, my Irish blood. Right? And so I, I, so I took some time like it. They're playing Sam Houston State. Texas is this week. This is not like a big week to preview. We're not breaking down the tape to get ready for a big and, and following Sam Houston State. Yeah, you would think I would do this exercise, if you will, leading up to a two week stretch where they've got Florida and Oklahoma back to back. But I chose now because there's been a lot of narratives, if you will, about Arch. And so I went back and I studied it and I, I just, I want to start with this. I will not be persuaded or, and I will not have any biases due to relationships with the Mannings or time spent at the manic camp or anything else. When you collect this kind of money when you are, you know, a Manning. More importantly, when you're a starting quarterback at Texas, you get the same treatment as everybody else. And that's what I think everyone would, would, would prefer. Right. So let's just be honest about things. Arch is completing 55% of his passes this year. That's second worst in the SEC. And he's got an offensive coordinator who is a head coach and Steve Sarkeesian, who is one of the brilliant offensive minds in all of college football. This episode is brought to you by Vuori. As an analyst, I'm a rankings guy. I scope the landscape, look at all the prospects, and then make the call. And looking at the Vuori Sunday performance jogger, it's safe to say I found your new favorite jog. Soft, lightweight, four way performance stretch. The Sunday performance jogger moves with you, no restrictions. And get this, we just landed a deal for friends of our show. They're offering 20% off your first purchase. Get yourself some of the most comfortable and versatile clothing on the planet@viori.com mcshay. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. He's got weapons, right? He's got Wingo. He's got, he's got Livingstone who stepped up and emerged. He's got injuries at tight end. He's got more junior who's a draft prospect. There's, there's weapons around him, okay? Completing 55, second worst in the SEC. What's more damning is when you look at throws that pass the line of scrimmage, I'm not talking 5 or 10 yards pass, I'm talking like cross the line of scrimmage. He's completing a frightening 46% of his throws. So something's wrong. Right. And we all know it. But I just wanted to start with that, like, this isn't. Oh, he doesn't look as good as expected. He's not playing to the level or we thought he was Heisman, we thought first overall pick, all that stuff. He's just not playing to the level of a starting quarterback in the sec, let alone at Texas with that cast. Okay. So I went back and I studied the Ohio State tape, which I think everyone in the world studied. Right. Or at least watch. Watch that game. Who. Anyone who has any pulse on college football. Watch that game. And we, we saw a defense in Ohio State that's loaded with talent. We saw a defense in Ohio State with a new coordinator, Matt Patricia, that threw a lot of stuff at him. And so that was the jumping off point. And I think there was a residual effect. Okay. I wanted to see against lesser competition games where he should be completing 70, 73% offense, should be humming. Should have been a quick bounce back. It wasn't necessarily. And I wanted to see, okay, what's, what's going on here, because these are games, they should roll in. Things should like, you know, it should have been, oh, it was a, it was a bump in the road arches back. Yeah, it's not great competition. He's playing great. Right. Confidence is building. We got one more against Sam Houston State, then we start the stretch run with Florida and Oklahoma and beyond. Right? Not the case, as is always. And, and you can attest to this, Steve, as is always the case, when you go watch tape on whether it's an individual, a unit, a team, there's a narrative that's in your mind. There's what you see in a. In when watching games on Saturday. And then when you go and watch the coach copy tape with this, you know, the all 22 and then the tight version you could. I. I find I always. And I know you and I have talked about this ad nauseam, you always come away with a couple things. One is it's a little different than what I expected based off of what I watched just watching the game. And two is it's never just one thing, right? It really is. It's never just like you go into this and you're like, is it. Is it because he's sidearming? Is it his shoulder that people are talking about? Is it, you know, he's. He's go doing the Mahomes thing. There's a myriad of things that are. That are happening and you see a lot of different things. And not some of them don't add up with others and with others and without. So that it's. There's. I can't even.
Mensch
You didn't even get into receivers being in the right places, receivers consistently catching the ball. You didn't even get into the. The other mitigating factors that surround whether or not a quarterback could be accurate.
Todd McShay
And I will get to a little bit of that here and, and just bear with me, but if I were to say, after getting done studying every single play, both games, after watching the Ohio State tape, there is an overarching situation that I am convinced is causing the majority, or a high percentage or whatever you want to say. They're causing a lot of. It's causing a lot of the problem. I. I truly believe first and foremost, Arch is pressing.
Mensch
Couldn't agree more.
Todd McShay
He's a. Manning had all the support in the world. He's got the uncles, Eli and Peyton. He's got the grandfather in Archie. He's been around ball his whole life, all those things. He's been prepared for this moment. We talked about that all summer long. Prepared for this moment, playing, you know, talking down all the. All the hype, kind of, you know, tongue in cheek with reporters, handling himself beautifully. But he's a human being and he's not a fully. Like, he, like me at 19, 20, even 21, is not the fully formed version of Todd McShay. He's not. It's a lot to take on. He is an economy in Austin, Texas. He is an economy in the sec. He's an economy in college football. He's a Manning on top of all those things. It's one thing to be John Matier, Garrett Nussmeier. It's another to be Manning at Texas with all that hype. It was Heisman, it was number one overall, 2026 draft or 2027 draft. These are human elements that are real, okay? So no matter how prepared you are when you're at his age, it's going to affect you in some way. I know this. Okay. The Manning camp would agree. There's been a. A pressing. There's been trying to live up to that expectation and you try to ignore it and you try to put in the back of your head and you try to do all the things, the right things, and you know that you grew up in the right. But. But he's pressing, period, because he wants to live up to these expectations. He knows what's expected of him. He knows what the path looks like. So. And the game is to and why do I say all those things? Because I'm watching a quarterback on tape take the name off of the back of his jersey, take the, the helmet, the sticker, take the school. It doesn't matter if I'm watching someone from, from Sam Houston State or Alcorn State. When you sit down and you watch tape as you and I do, you're just watching the player each play mechanics, play design, coverages, all those things. This is a quarterback, regardless of name, that the game is moving too fast and what is happening to him. And I do think what happened against Ohio State was a punch in the face. And I think he's in round two and round three and he's still trying to shake off some of the blows that he took. And that game, I swear to you, because I'm seeing, he's seeing ghosts at time when he's being, when he's got protection up front, he's in the pocket and he's rushing his process. I, I don't see it when I watch the, the PGA Tour in the highest level. And, and even if I saw it, I wouldn't be able to recognize it because I'm, I, I don't, I'm not an analyst who's, who's immersed in that world. But I know when I go swing a golf club, when I swing, when I'm relaxed, man had a good day. No one at home's calling about when I'm going to be home. Kids are good, grades are good, getting along with their friends. They're being kind. I go out and I bring, I, I, I play free and swing free. And it all like the hips and the hands, it's all loose. And that's the word I've used in talking to people around that are in this, camping around. Like, I just don't see a young man who's playing free and loose. And it's hard to play free and loose when you're carrying all that weight, weight of expectation on your shoulders. And so when you're just watching him on the tape, I'm seeing a guy that's rushing, throws frequently. I'm seeing rushing when he doesn't need to rush frequently. I'm seeing that his, his, his hips and his hands aren't working in the same unison like that golf swing I'm talking about. I'm seeing him dropping his arm, shot putting, and that's what's led. And I know the wincing on tape. People say, I can tell you right now, I'm not being lied to. And I'M told, like, it's not a shoulder issue. So let's just. Okay.
Stanford Steve
Which was.
Todd McShay
Which was confirmed. So like I said, I can share that. It's. It's the. It's the mind working too fast and this tense. You know, it's. It's swinging. Jerk. It's trying to get the ball out too quick. The short game, even the short game, some of the throws aren't. Aren't as accurate as they should be. And I think even some. I see his throws and I went back and I studied the tape from last year, too.
Stanford Steve
Right.
Todd McShay
Mall catalog. But he was playing. He came in. In situations he. Like, there was more juice on the ball. It was tying everything, you know, and now it's almost like he's. There are some throws where he's. It's. It's short arming it. It's just getting it out, you know, because his mind is like, I got to get it there. But so much going on. And I think Matt Patricia sped things up, and I don't know that he's been able. You know, like, you ever have a car engine that's revving too fast and it takes. It was like.
Stanford Steve
Yeah.
Todd McShay
You know, takes a minute.
Mensch
Cool down.
Todd McShay
He's got to get the. Like the. Yeah. The engine revving back down. So I'm not saying it's just Ohio State. I'm saying it's all the things. All the factors. I'm watching a quarterback that, to me, like, his. His mind is going faster than his body can keep up with. That's the overarching. The global. For me. Go ahead. Okay.
Mensch
So I agree with everything you're saying. I see the same things.
Stanford Steve
My.
Todd McShay
I do want to. I just do want to preface this with I. There are. Now, like, when we're done with our conversation, I then want to get into some specifics that are correct, that. That are byproducts of what I just told you, but also are. That are separate. Separate entities to. To the. The mind moving too fast and pressing.
Mensch
I think we agree this is the underlying issue, though, right? I mean, I think. Okay, so if that's the underlying issue.
Stanford Steve
Right.
Mensch
And I don't have the answer, and I'm not paid to have this answer. I think it's a tough. It's a tough thing to solve. Tomorrow morning, he wakes up. He's still Arch Manning. Tomorrow morning, he's still the starting quarterback for a Texas team that still has national championship aspirations. All of that stays the same. He still lives in Austin. It's still the same Kind of attention. None of the pressures. You can't. There's no release valve here, my man. There's nothing. We can't come in and say, you know what, don't worry about it. You don't have to worry about this or that or whatever. The pressure is staying the same. It's not going away. So how do you handle this? How. What's the solution to getting a very talented young man to understand that he doesn't have to carry that all around with him, that he just needs to work on playing quarterback and executing what. What do you do? What does Sarkeesian do? Do you have an answer? I don't have an answer. I'll be honest with you. I mean, that's above my pay grade, to be honest with you. I don't know how you get this kid to just. Just relax, do what you've been taught to do your entire life, go out, do your thing, play football.
Todd McShay
I don't know. I know it takes a lot of care from people around you. I know it takes a lot of good support and you got to lean on it. And I don't want to get like, sappy. And I don't know if there's a sports psychologist involved. I certainly. There's all the. There's all the support in the world for him and in his circle, and he has he. Access to things that maybe some. Some other quarterbacks certainly pre. Nil. I don't know.
Mensch
You make a good point, though. He has to take advantage of it. And sometimes I know when I was young, it was. I've got stubborn. I don't want to acknowledge that there's a problem. If I go to you and say I need help, then I'm acknowledging that there's a problem I'm trying to avoid.
Todd McShay
There's the football part and there's. And then there's the personal part.
Mensch
Right, Right.
Stanford Steve
Yes.
Todd McShay
Like the football part. You see Sark, like, there are periods of time and I'll get to the kind of specifics and we. I only want to go maybe 10 more minutes on this, but Max. But there are. There are times where Sark is very clearly trying to take that pressure off of him. Right, right. He's trying to. Whether it's short passing games, screens, the. And like there are times.
Mensch
Play calling, play design.
Todd McShay
So. So there's the football part of it, and then there's the personal part of it, which, like, we can speak to if we want, but it's kind of useless. And I don't want to bore our Audience with, it's true. But there's some personal stuff that he's going to have to kind of in order to get his mind back where the, the engine's not revving too fast and everything is in sync. Right. But I do want to get, like, in transition, too. It's on Arch to slow this process down. And as you just aptly said, like, we would. We don't have that answer for him. And, but hopefully people in his circle and, and he can look within himself and he can figure that out. But as is always the case, as I said, there's a myriad of things that are going on. Right. I want to start with this, that San Jose State, the game after Ohio State, like, he was pretty damn good for a long stretch in that game. Okay. I, I and so was Texas's offense as a whole. I think that's important to mention. He. It was 287 midway through the second quarter against San Jose State, and, and yes, it's San Jose State. I hear you. I'm not making excuses. I'm not. I just, like, I'm reporting back what the tape is telling me. That's. That's the only thing I could do here. And, and the information I'm getting from people who know, okay, yeah, Arch would have been 10 for 13 if it wasn't for a holding call that, that brought a deep completion down the, down the right rail back. He's still at that point, up 28 7, was 9 for 12 with three touchdown passes. Things were rolling, man. Then he kind of hit some bumps in the road and kind of up and down didn't finish great, but it was like, oh, it was fine. You know what I mean? Progress.
Mensch
It was progress.
Todd McShay
It was progress. You felt like we're getting there, and then it kind of just like sputtered out, but it was, but like, it was definitely progress from the first game. And you felt like, all right, here we're building. He's going to be just fine. Things were off from the jump against utep, man, and I know you watched that. They were off from the jump. Sark came into that game like, and I'm sure he's got a football team. It's not just 16. He's got a whole football team and a season that he's looking ahead to where he's got to get some answers about what are we capable of doing when we need to do it in the biggest games versus the toughest opponents. Sark came in manually. We're going to establish the run and we are going to be Texas, and we are going to. I need my offensive line to understand that there are times in this season where we have got to line up, run the football and we've got to dominate. So they came out and they were pounding it early. He wanted to establish 16 of the first 20 plays. And I didn't go off the stats. I was just off of my tape. So maybe there was a penalty. Maybe it doesn't exactly line up. But 16 of the first 20 plays were runs. One of them was not a designed run. It was a drop back where Arch ran. So you're talking three quarters of the plays the first 20 plays run were designed runs. Arch didn't get into a rhythm early. Now, I'm not putting any of this on Sark, man. Sark's working his ass off. Sark knows what he's doing. Sark's got a team to work. I'm just saying. Then when they started to throw the ball, Arch didn't look settled in. Right.
Stanford Steve
Right.
Todd McShay
But if I had to summarize and give kind of some bullet points beyond just the pressing and the pressure and like the. The. The mind working faster than the body, I want to mention a few things. Number one, there's a serious Manning Wingo issue going on. And I'm not talking per. I'm not talking personal. And here's the funny, not the fun. Here's the fascinating part. It's like it's just a glitch. There's a Manning Wingo glitch going on. And sometimes it's Manning, sometimes it's Wingo there. Like some of the issues are timing between the two. A couple are miscommunications. Wingo on that stop route should have been an out. He stops down, the cornerback has inside leverage. Arch is expecting him when. When the corner has inside leverage. Instead of running a stop like it was like eight back to. Or 10 back to eight, something like that, you got to kind of peel it towards the sideline, right. Wingo doesn't. Balls outside, incompletion, little things. Right. Couple flat out drops. Can I just give a suggestion to Sark?
Mensch
Here we go. Here we go.
Todd McShay
Hey, Sark, let's put a plug in the dig route to Wingo for a minute. Just for a minute. Get. Let's get Manning and Wingo back. Because I've. The two worst drops I've seen of Wingo's short career are that left side of formation, working the dig route from left to right, back inside. Anyone who doesn't know it, dig right. Basically, you run down the top of your stem, top of your route and you like, if you run an out route, you cut out. If you run a post, you kind of angle you, if you run a corner, you angle the. To the outside. But a dig route is like six route and then sharp, sharp breaking in this dig route, it just ain't working. And it ain't working. Like Wingo had two drops and man, two of Manning's worst throws just like killing, killing worms in the dirt. But again, it's, it's timing issues, it's errant throws from Manning, it's drops from Wingo and it's miscommunications like those four things. So like they have got to get on the same page because when he catches the ball, Steve, oh my God. Oh, like that screen he caught in the last game, like late in the game, they just got, they were like, it. I'm like, we don't, we're not running intermediate deep routes. Like, let's just get him the ball in his hands and let him, let him eat a little bit. He catches it and he's like, what, six, two? He's a big, just shot. And I'm like, oh, okay, that's Texas. Like, that's explosive ball right there. So they got to work that out. That's a, that's a big thing.
Mensch
He's an elite talent.
Todd McShay
But I wish, I wish it was one thing. I wish it was. They're just not on the same page. I wish it like, it's like four different things between those two. Number two, both interception. This goes back to the pressure. Both interceptions were arch. Trying to do something that he could do in high school that he can't do in college. And I know he hasn't been a full time starter before this year, but he played in, he's played in just enough ball and he's been around this game as since he was birthed to not make the two interceptions that he's thrown in the last two games. They are just him frustrated, trying to do too much. I'm Arch Manning. I'm supposed to be winning Heisman. I'm supposed to be the number one overall pick. I can fix this. Gotta cut that out because if he's doing it again, San Jose State and utep, like, it's frightening to think about him trying to do. You know, the, the UTEP one was rolling left, runs back to the right, does a great job of extending. And then it's like, no, no, no.
Mensch
And I know it's fourth down.
Todd McShay
Yeah, yeah, but yeah, and then, and then the one we talked about, the San Jose State one, he's like in the grasp of the. It was a free rush. Just take the sack or I think he tried to get it out of bounds or maybe I don't know. So those are like, I know that Stark's like drilling that home in him. Number three, sloppy feet. And I. And please check out the. Check out. Like if you, if you're interested at all in like quarterback dynamics and, and what we're talking about today in Arch and even just quarterbacks in general working on a really cool piece with a lot of video support for, for the McShay report. And you can Google it. If you don't subscribe, you can subscribe for free. And then there's a premium as well if, if you want to become a premium member. And we appreciate everyone who has and the continued support that we're getting. But it's the McShay report that'll be out. That's out now. Actually. It came out, came out just a little bit ago today, this morning, as with this podcast. But the sloppy feet, it's, it's. I was expecting quite honestly it was going to be like vast majority of that. It's still, it's still too often. And again it goes back to like I just think there are, there are throws. There's a handful of throws, not enough A handful of throws where he actually looks free, confident, like deliberate feet underneath them base. There was one where he play action to the left and he worked his way back. You could actually from the tight version, the end zone copy of the cameraman back there, right. You could actually see his helmet go, which tells you his eyes are going left to middle to right with his reads right. And with it came his feet. It hasn't happened a lot.
Mensch
The glimpses are great.
Todd McShay
Yeah, yeah. He drills a throw to more junior a touch high but, but like led him to the sideline. Perfect ball. And I'm like, they're like, that's it. Let's bottle that up. Arch, you know. But then there are others where it's just even when he doesn't have a reason to rush the throw, it's. He's just not bringing his feet around. He's not tying it all together. It's stuff I know he knows how to do because I still see him doing it and I've seen him in the past do it. And then honestly, there's some throws and it's not a huge catalog of it. It's a few I just don't like the one. He overshot Livingstone off the play action, one on one down the middle, kind of crossing over. I just didn't think he had a lot of conviction in that throw. I think he, like, in addition to those other problems I'm talking about, I think there's been a couple occasions where he just looks like a quarterback who's not super confident what he's doing.
Mensch
Right.
Todd McShay
It goes back to it and you can. And so I did like the way he finished the San Jose State game. He had a couple nice throws there. He hit Wingo on a dig route. Holy. He hit Wingo on the dig route. It was play 79 a few plays earlier. He threw with conviction. Wasn't a hard throw, but it was that touchdown pass where he kind of. He knew he had to get it low into the outside and he drilled it. You could tell when the ball hit the receiver's hands for a touchdown. You could see his demeanor change. He's like, yep, just got to get him there.
Mensch
Got to get him.
Todd McShay
Too much talent, too much support. Too many good players at Texas, too good of a coach. With Sark, I've got to believe he's going to get there. But right now, as it stands like it's absolutely concerning and the only person who's got is gonna. Who's gonna be able to solve it is Arch himself with the support that he has around him.
Mensch
I agree.
Todd McShay
All right, Any other comments?
Mensch
I'm good. I thought that was well put.
Todd McShay
Those are our vegetables now. We got dessert.
Mensch
I can't wait for dessert. Yep, I'm excited.
Todd McShay
Stanford Steve's joining us right now. The McShay show is brought to you by FanDuel. Ready to fire up your Saturdays? FanDuel's got a boost you don't want to miss. It's called boosting with the boys and it's giving everyone a college football profit boost every single week. So here's how it works. Each week, we're giving everyone a profit boost to use on college football. No opt in gymnastics, no invite, only nonsense. Everyone gets the boost. We're talking real games, real teams, real Saturdays with an extra payout on the line. It's easy, it's fun, and it's only on FanDuel. Go to FanDuel.com McShay to download the app. Check out the boostin with the boys offer and get in on the action. Must be 21 and older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in required Bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Duluth Trading Company. Ready to give rival tailgates the foam finger? Duluth Trading Co. Crafts hall of fame game day gear to help you grill hotter, cheer louder and tailgate longer. Trust me, like I'm a scene at the grill, I know what this is all about. They've got bibs loaded with pockets, gusted pants so you can crouch without snuffing out your coals and free swinging shirts tailor made for beanbag tossing or some like to call it cornhole. Stay comfortable from preseason to playoffs in the toughest tailgate attire around. Only at Duluth Trading Co.
Mensch
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Todd McShay
Stanford, Steve. Getting hydrated?
Stanford Steve
Trying. Fellas, Good to see you.
Todd McShay
Hey, show me. What. Show me what shirt you're wearing.
Stanford Steve
Come on.
Todd McShay
Spiders.
Stanford Steve
Bird of kids. For the kids.
Todd McShay
I love it. I love it. You know how to make us happy.
Stanford Steve
Hey, real quick. I was just. I was listening to you guys. I'm not sure who does men hate more, Penn State or lsu.
Todd McShay
Wow.
Mensch
Here we go.
Todd McShay
It's. It's.
Mensch
I'll be honest with you. It's definitely Penn State. And I don't love Clemson either.
Todd McShay
Shots fire.
Mensch
By the way, about 10 minutes after I went on that rant, Brian Kelly comes out and apologizes. So, yeah, look at that.
Todd McShay
It's Penn State globally for him. It was. It was Brian Kelly last week, I think.
Stanford Steve
Yeah.
Todd McShay
Yeah. How you doing, man?
Stanford Steve
We're good. We're good, man. You know, we're in it. Incredible. Incredible. Last weekend. It's been a while since I was in Knoxville and I. I said on.
Todd McShay
How great is that place? When it's right.
Stanford Steve
Just get to give you a timeline here.
Todd McShay
The.
Stanford Steve
The last time I was there, game day, radio rosillo I think it was year you were gone. Will Muschamps coach in Florida, and Derek Dooley was coaching Tennessee. Man, like that. I forgot how good Nyland is. Like, it's. It's above Penn State. It is.
Todd McShay
Oh, yeah.
Stanford Steve
I put it, too. I put it to behind lsu. I really do.
Todd McShay
Yeah, I can see that it is.
Stanford Steve
I mean, and the fans were just tremendous. They know they're on the cusp. You know, I said on game day that morning, I said, last year I was in Athens, Tennessee. It's about matching the physicality of Georgia when you play them. You know that. And last year in Athens, Tennessee did it for 30 minutes. They had to do it for 60. They did. They were right there. And I think it takes. I think it says a lot about where Tennessee is going from talking to the fans there last weekend and really being unsure with this whole quarterback dynamic. But I go back to this. Only a Kirby smart coach team wins that game, right? And, like, watching them on the sidelines, and, I mean, it is absolute chaos. You've been there. The noise, the momentum, swings. Freaking Rocky top just blaring.
Todd McShay
You can't get it out of your head for, like, three nights of sleep.
Stanford Steve
I still haven't gotten up.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Stanford Steve
And. And. And he's. And it's not crazy. Kirby, he's going over there. The visor wasn't flapping or nothing. He's going over and, like, you could tell.
Todd McShay
It's like, roll up your sleeves, Kirby.
Stanford Steve
Yeah, they were getting spread all the way, getting killed with the mesh and, you know, in the run underneath and all the split zone stuff. And he was just like, all right, we're gonna come over and do this. His corner's getting beat like a drum. All right, let's put another kid in. He gets beat for a touchdown. Like, it might.
Todd McShay
It might just be Brazil.
Stanford Steve
Yeah. Oh, yeah. I saw the breakdown, so I. I got you. Slow down, Slow down.
Todd McShay
No, I can't.
Stanford Steve
See, this is what happens. You're staying in the. You're staying at home now, and you got the clicker. You're not at one, and you're just falling in love.
Todd McShay
I'm dangerous now. Oh, yeah.
Stanford Steve
You're swiping right on everybody on the dating apps. Oh, yeah. We gotta get you out.
Todd McShay
I don't know, man. I. I like being dangerous from home. All right, we got a slate, man. And I know you. You got things to do. You got travel to wherever you guys want to go.
Stanford Steve
I'm full, fired up. We got it now. The big ten's done with their bs. We're in it, man.
Todd McShay
We are. And. And I want to start in the Big 12, though, first. You mind?
Stanford Steve
Yeah.
Todd McShay
I want to go kind of chronologically through Saturday because it's an awesome slate. There's five games I want to get to. There's. There's actually more, but it's kind of juicy, man. And I. It's. This, to me, is a prove it game. Texas Tech, the. What is the. The Matador club. Yeah, she's got all that oil money together. I think it was 22 juco guys they brought in off to a fast start. Three zero. And now you got Utah. I think everyone who, like, actually, like, really watches college football and like, really cares to know, like, all the. Understands that Utah's. Utah's for real. Like this football team, right? Both three zero. Texas Tech is plus two and a half. It's kind of a fishy line to me. What jumps out to you in that game? That's a noon kick, by the way.
Stanford Steve
You know, Prove it. See what we got. You know, these teams. You know, my favorite pick of week one was Utah going to ucla just because I knew. I had a feeling when you're reading about ucla, like, this receiver's gone, like, their good pieces were gone. But then Nico overshadowed all of it. And reading between the lines, I loved what Utah did following this new deal that Oklahoma did. Vandy started and bringing in your offensive coordinator and then bringing the quarterback. And Dan Pierre's a guy like you watched last year. It's like, what the hell's going on? And then touchdown. You know, he's running around all over the place. So I liked him in the idea of playing in some structure, which, you know you're going to get from Kyle Whittingham. It's. It's going to be different. And he took. He did something that he hasn't really done here, but I think it says a lot about both guys. So I was. I'm in on Utah. I thought they would win the conference beforehand. But this one, I mean, you've been there, Todd. The Mus. That. That section. You know, I call this one the must versus the money. You know, the Texas. The best. The best team money could buy. And all the Big 12 coaches pointed that out at media days. So, you know, there's big bullseye on Lubbock, which is cool. I haven't, you know, been a part of a game since probably playing junior midgets. That's going to kick off at 10am I think that's because you have to start off well in this game. 10am local. So I look at Utah as being more sound. Now Texas Tech spent a ton of money on the defensive line and Utah's bread and butters that offense. I mean you see the different variations. I just wonder how they go about things. Is it going to be more quarterback run? Are they going to let guys run free and read them, you know, are they going to go gap scheme, you know, more zone scheme? Like they have it all. You could do it all with Dan Pier. So I lean towards the home team. I trust Whittingham's defense and his schemes and Bo Scally more. But there's plenty. I mean Morton is a kid, coach's son, great story. Battled an injury, you know, but if he stays healthy, Texas X got the goods man. Because one thing that you think about is Utah secondary is gettable and Texas Tech's got some receivers protect. Can they protect that?
Todd McShay
Yes. Can they protect. Here's the I actually watched a little tape of both these teams because I hadn't seen enough. Like during Saturdays, you like Dan Pierce playing awesome, right? I mean you look at the numbers. You watch like 73%, seven touchdowns, no interceptions, all the running around, all the things he's done, but he's only 77 yards per attempt. Cramped. And then I'm watching, I'm like, who can separate who's like a game break. Ryan Davis is reliable but, but like fewer than 10 yards per catch. Dalen Bentley, the, the tight end is second leading receiver. They, they just don't have dudes on the perimeter. Texas Tech on the other hand with, with Baron Morton, they've, they've got like five I think. What is it? I wrote it down. It's five. Five. Yeah. Five guys with 134 receiving yards per game. More importantly, their top three receivers are averaging 20, you know, 20 or more receiving yards per game. So like I just, I don't know. The line's fishy and you know how I am. Like I, I'm like go back to Corso. Like somebody knows something that I'm going like FanDuel knows something. I'm going with the FanDuels here. Like, I just, I think Koi can, I don't know. I, I, I like Texas Tech here, but I'm skeptical. I'm very skeptical.
Mensch
It's Utah on that offensive line. They're going to wear out that talented. That Texas Tech front's really good, man. David Bailey out of Stanford. I don't know why anyone's leaving Stanford These days, it's such a good program.
Stanford Steve
But David bailey coming over 1 and 0 in our last game.
Mensch
That's all right.
Todd McShay
Correct everybody.
Mensch
David Bailey comes over from Stanford. They got, I mean they've got Romello height who's on his like 17th school. They've got some dudes on that defensive line. I'm not sure about the depth though, though. And I think that Utah, as good as that defensive line is, Utah is one of the, I think it's the best offensive line in the country. I think Utah gets downhill on their ass. I think they run some quarterback power with Dampier, create some numbers games in the running game. They're going to wear that Texas Tech front out and I think that's going to be the difference of the game. And I think, you know, Steve, I think you make a great point about whether or not Texas Tech can protect because they're running six and seven man protections the first three games of this year and they haven't seen anything close to this pass rush. I mean the Utah, they don't have like, you know, a lot of great athletes. But John Henry Daly, that edge, he is a physical dude. He's got five sacks tied for best in the fbs. I like Utah in this game a lot. Texas Tech's really good team, really good team. But I think Utah's, you know, they're going to be in the playoff hunt.
Stanford Steve
These are, you know, the two favorites now to win the conference. I mean everybody had their feelings about what it was going to happen. I think Kansas State ended up starting the season as the favorite and we saw right. Go by the wayside. I do.
Todd McShay
Arizona State was another one that a.
Stanford Steve
Lot of people thought, yeah, but Utah again, I was in love with, with those teams when they had it rolling with Keith and, and kincaid. They got two guys. J.J. buchanan's a true freshman. This kid is awesome. Number 81, 64, jumps like 42, 20. And then they got another fifth year, six year kid, Bentley. They could, they could be a problem for, for you, you know, the way you talk and you know, run those run. No, I mean everybody's running it now. You saw the Colts do it with, you know, that insertion. Yeah, the insertion stuff that. I mean, God, why couldn't I play these days? Running through the defense, new man. It's not even fair.
Todd McShay
These guys, 3:30 is going to be fun. Like this is a night that's a nice little snack. But like you got Michigan, Nebraska, Auburn, Oklahoma. Right. Michigan's two and one, Nebraska's three zero kind of surprised that Michigan was only a two and a half point favorite in this. You can take it anywhere you want to go. But yeah, I mean, is Nebraska. I think they've improved. I'm kind of buying what rules selling. I don't know if they've arrived. I mean, they haven't arrived, but like how far are they. Are they good enough to beat a Michigan team that quite honestly, like, I don't think people recognize how many pro prospects are there.
Stanford Steve
Yes.
Todd McShay
Along the defensive front is especially. I don't think people realize how good Underwood. We've heard all the hype and we saw that first game. They kind of. But like I can see a world in which Underwood starts to absolutely soar as the season progresses. Where are you in this game?
Stanford Steve
A couple things on the Michigan side. I actually was just watching the start of their game last week because I was there for the Oklahoma game and you know, again to you, I was like, whoa, whoa. And there's a dude, there's a dude. There's a dude.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Stanford Steve
Materials, you know, put materials pulling off rabbit tricks to get out of trouble. But I was more on the offensive side and you know, Sheryl Moore's not coaching this game. He wasn't there this week. And when you go back and watch last week against I know it's Central Michigan, but their first drive is 10 plays. They throw the ball, I mean, all over the place. Boots, deep balls, comebacks, tight end overs the first five plays of the game and they end up scoring in a 10 play drive. And to me, I just, I wonder in, in this spot and knowing Biff Poggy and how much of a wild card is where he just says, bryce, go like, we're going to run you. We're going to let you throw. And we're at Oklahoma. It was like, all right, we don't have our tight end. We still don't know about our receivers. We are going to hold this thing down. We're going to play defense, get bar them back in the second half and make it a game. And they did. But that two scores in the first half that they went down was too much to overcome. So Michigan's, I think, super dangerous here. When I watch Nebraska and I go back to. I talked to Dana Holgerson this summer and he was, he was in awe of what they were asking Raiola to do last year. As a truth, he was just like, you know, media and team functions and being the face and doing everything and, you know, just the onus. I mean the kid's a True freshman. He's like, all right, the first thing we're going to do is we're going to simplify some things in the offense and make it easier for you. And I think you saw that, you know, there was some Progress.
Todd McShay
He threw 11 interceptions, just 13 touchdowns a year. You could, you could. And as the season progressed, you started.
Stanford Steve
Off like you didn't know where it was going to go though.
Todd McShay
And it didn't go the right way.
Stanford Steve
Yeah. And now when you watch them, you know, against Cincinnati a lot like Dana's stuff is super creative obviously and he's gonna, he's gonna see what you want to do and he's always got an answer. That's why he has that little frickin note card that he has know how he see him Cliff all those guys spav but it's with two tight ends and I've never seen this before and it was creating windows and making them like it was catch and throw. And the last thing you want is a young quarterback holding onto the football. Especially against a team like Michigan that could get pressure with minimal guys. So I look at Nebraska, their defense being the key here. Everybody knows Matt Rule Year 3. This is where he takes a step. But I wonder about that defense against the run because Sourceby for Cincinnati really, really was successful.
Mensch
Second half of Cincinnati, man. Second half of Cincinnati is all I needed to see. Shoresby was killing them on design runs on scrambles. And what happened against Central Michigan last week with, with Underwood way more decisive about taking off. And also you saw some of that quarterback power against, against Central Michigan too. If they do the same thing with Underwood this week. I mean I watched that Nebraska defense second half of Cincinnati and I just don't know how they're going to do it.
Todd McShay
We're rolling here. I love when, I love when the one Steve to the next. Everyone's worked up. You know what's kind of weird about Nebraska this is, this is a passing organization if you will like they are. They are relying on throwing the football. They are much more effective throwing the football than they are running the football at this point.
Mensch
Not your grandfather's Nebraska man.
Todd McShay
And defensively they are, they've been much better defending the pass than they have been versus the run. If, if you're, if you're pro Michigan you're looking at the fact that like they're 75th in the nation versus the run. 202 yards against Cincinnati. 113 to Akron, 93 to Houston Christian. So it's going to be interesting to see the, the game plan for Michigan in this. But I, I don't know. I think Nebraska, I think this is going to be a battle.
Stanford Steve
I think I'm really. These two, three games I think are super interesting. And I think the way I heard it early, all the money was on Michigan, so be careful.
Todd McShay
That's what I'm saying. I got, I got just like a little slight lean. Like I think something's going to happen with Nebraska this week. I'm not saying win, but like this is going to be tight. All right. Auburn 22 in the country. Oklahoma 11 in the country, three and oh, each team. Auburn's plus six and a half in this game. What jumps out to you?
Stanford Steve
You'll like this pregame, Michigan, Oklahoma, and everybody's out there. Nagy's got freaking 280 there out of his mind. And you know how he is like, he leans over and like the place is rocking, right? I mean everything's, you know, it's, it's 80 degrees and you know how it leans over. He's like, you know, I think our roster's a lot better than people think. I'm like, why, why are you waiting till now to tell me that I missed a game day this morning I said I picked you, but I would like some encouragement here.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Stanford Steve
And, and, and, and that's exactly how I felt after watching them. I think the defense is real. I mean, they got as good a D tackles and in, in a position where you talk to any, you talk to scouts, you talk to coaches in this new era. I mean, I think about Georgia and Alabama, specifically Clemson, that started this whole thing where they would just stockpile dts and DNS. They, Oklahoma's as deep as anybody at defensive tackle and that's what you want, especially in a game like this with a guy that's going to want to establish quarterback run. So to me, I get it. Matier is awesome. I got the headbands, the whole thing. The story's great. But to me, I like Oklahoma as a team because of the defense more than him. I think Guillory at corner. I think he's a true freshman student. I expect him on Coleman. I like the secondary. And when you saw Billy Bowman balling for the Falcons the other night replacing guys. But you know our Mason Thomas, I believe is suspended for the first half because of targeting in the second half of the Temple game.
Todd McShay
Yes, something to keep an eye on. He's a big time player.
Stanford Steve
So to me, Oklahoma wins the game because of the defense. I feel like Jackson Arnold in a, in a crazy spot. I'm really rooting for the dude because I go back and I watch it. I, I, I've said in the offseason I, I don't think Patrick Mahomes could have survived. No, it was, he couldn't have been successful in Oklahoma system last year between it was catastrophic. It was awful.
Todd McShay
And five wide receivers injured. Yeah.
Stanford Steve
Like no one's going to succeed in that. And you know he gets a call and he, and he gets offered and, and that's what it is. So I, I'm, I've been a fan of his just because what he went through last year and knowing how young and brittle guys could be be. But Auburn, this is a big. You talk about prove it spots.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Stanford Steve
You know Hugh Freeze and the recruiting and the off the field stuff and this is, I mean I still think that's a really good win starting the season and going to Baylor. And they did it because Jackson they said we are not letting the receivers.
Todd McShay
Yeah. You don't with Sawyer Robertson, man.
Stanford Steve
No, no, that's. Hey, I got him number one. No no, no qualms from me but.
Todd McShay
No, he's got weapons.
Stanford Steve
Yeah.
Todd McShay
I totally agree with you on Oklahoma's defense. What I'm really intrigued to see. And Jackson Arnold is making progressions. I don't know if he's there yet against this defense, but he's got dudes, man. Yeah. Like Cam Coleman's what, six, three Fields. The number three receiver. Six foot two. Horatio Fields.
Stanford Steve
Eric Singleton is I like Singleton the best music.
Todd McShay
An Olympic track star and he can play ball. Yeah. Like part of me is like I keep on going back. Like could this turn into a little, not a shootout but like. No, a little higher score because it's some big play. And then Jackson Arnold with his legs on top. Could this be a little bit higher scoring than than we expect? Because Oklahoma's defenses look so good. Auburn's past defense though worries me. And they have four returning starters from, from that secondary year ago tackling. And they got two guys from, from G5 from group of five. They got two more DBs who are like stars of the the G5 level. That was supposed to be a strength. And you get Keldrick Falk and the and the boys up front like but they've not been able to cover. I was looking at it 419 against Sawyer which you know everyone's going to give up. 400 plus against my man. But USA South Alabama. I know, I'm joking. But Bishop. Yeah but Bishop, Bishop Davenport at one point was 15 of 18 against that secondary until they, they finally, they got pressure to him. So that's like those are the things like can Oklahoma's defense remain solid in coverage against those receivers with a mobile quarterback? So now we've got more responsibility than just matching up one on one. And then on the other side, Auburn's defense in the secondary, can they plug the, the dam a little bit? Because it has not looked pretty in the first couple games.
Stanford Steve
Yeah. Match. I'm curious to what you saw. I don't know. Did you watch for Susie against Michigan? The true tackle they. He didn't play last week against Temple.
Todd McShay
Is he playing this week?
Stanford Steve
I. That, that's what I'm waiting on. Like me too. From, from what I saw. And I mean you hear Beanbaugh talk and who's as trusted as anybody. Like going to the season he was talking about, he had never had a freshman like this. And then I see him in person, I'm like, holy shit, what's the, what was that like? And, and just raw. Like he's, he's raw but like, I mean he can move. He's good with his hands. His, his, his. You know, his balance looked good. He didn't play too high. And I mean you're going against guys against Michigan and I thought he held his. It wasn't pretty at all. But your first start, you're going against Michigan and it got to have a game with it with a program that's trying to take that next step. I thought he was good. I thought the right tackle hanging, they're only going to get better. So. And then, you know, but with that on the other side, you know, talking to Baylor's people for that first game at Auburn, they were really worried about Falk. They, they thought the world of him. And I don't know how twitchy he is, but when he wants to get after the pat like he could ruin this whole game. I'll say that. But I think Oklahoma knows that and, and will have a plan. So I, I like Oklahoma in this matchup because of the totality.
Todd McShay
Six and a half even. Okay.
Mensch
Yeah, I like. Go ahead really quickly. I like Oklahoma too. But one of the ways that Auburn wins this game is that their pass rush. I don't. Those Oklahoma offensive tackles I like a lot and I hope the fasus he plays because they're different with him in the lineup.
Todd McShay
And the other guys.
Mensch
Derek, Derek Simmons, I think right on the. Derek Simmons on the other side, right tackle, he moves really well.
Stanford Steve
But Auburn's power, man.
Mensch
It's not a. You can be finessed with those sets and they will run right through your face if you let them. So I like Simmons as an athlete. One of the issues I had is can he sit, can he anchor?
Stanford Steve
Y.
Mensch
That's something to keep an eye on in this game. I still like Oklahoma, but that's one edge. Auburn potentially has Stanford.
Todd McShay
Steve. Yeah, I gotta differentiate between the two. What's your record now on game? Game day picking?
Stanford Steve
Ah, freaking four hour weather delay crushed us with the USC over. We're one and two last week. Five and four. I think we were four, two.
Todd McShay
Yeah, we get the fan dual featured picks every week. Yeah, I'm three and two. I was three and one going in last week and I, I was banking on Mensa and, and Duke against Tulane.
Stanford Steve
Don't mess with my man Summerall. Don't.
Todd McShay
We're gonna get back on track. I've got a sneaky one for you. And then I'm going to give you a 4, 4 leg parlay. Because this is important. We get the FanDuel feature picks every week. All right, bench, first of all, who's your pick of the week?
Mensch
I, I can't believe I'm doing it. I'm going back to the. Well, I'm taking Michigan. I like Michigan in that game. I just, I just like Michigan. The game I had Michigan beating Oklahoma, that didn't work out well for me. I've been on a little bit of a cold streak after taking the under in the Kansas State and Iowa State game. Barely getting it. I don't think I've hit anything since, but I'm taking Michigan.
Todd McShay
All right, Michigan. Michigan minus two and a half. Okay, My pick of the week is smu. SMU against TCU over. No, the game. I love Hoover. I, I love Hoover. I think Jennings, I think, I think sm, lastly is not going to let this happen. I, I, I think that they, they bounce back and I think they surprised me. Plus, everyone in the world is on tc. They saw me in North Carolina and everyone's oh, I love Hoover. Like SMU is going to reestablish itself.
Mensch
This, you're not believing it. Okay.
Todd McShay
And then this four leg parlay. Get your pen ready. Mr. Spider over there with his, with his new hoodie on.
Stanford Steve
Let's go.
Todd McShay
I love how he gets better gear than us. Mensch.
Mensch
Yeah, that's, that's nice.
Todd McShay
Write this down because, because you're going to want to put this in FanDuel. Get your app out all line on three. On all four picks.
Mensch
You love the old line.
Todd McShay
Well, you gotta, you gotta maneuver. This is plus 500. If we come in in this four leg parlay. I feel it. I don't want it on bad beats this week. I want it on beats. Auburn. Auburn plus ten and a half. I love Oklahoma. I'm the biggest matier guy in the entire world. Bigger than Nagy, bigger than Mattier's parents. But I like Auburn in this spot. Plus ten and a half. Indiana, I moved to two and a half. We'll get to that game in a second. Against Illinois only minus two and a half. I knew you'd kind of like that. Florida plus ten and a half. We'll get to that game in a minute with that spread I got. We'll talk about it and then SMU plus ten and a half in that alt line. So that's, that's it. FanDuel, get your app. I'm telling you, I, I picked three out of four two weeks ago, Steve. I picked three out of four.
Stanford Steve
You could start. You'll guarantee you'll have a streak of doing that this year.
Todd McShay
And then last week I was two for two. All right, blame me. Prime time. Yeah, let's, let's save, let's save your game for last. Let's go. Illinois at Indiana. Illinois is ranked ninth in the country. Indiana's 19. Illinois is actually plus five and a half in this game. Where are you going with this?
Stanford Steve
You know, it's hard because when you look at Illinois, I, I do take some stuff from the Duke game. I thought, you know, when you watch Illinois, it seems right now it's pretty methodical.
Todd McShay
I still think the best opponent that either of these schools is playing.
Stanford Steve
Exactly. That's, that's the one. The one thing I, I have substance on, I'll get to Indiana. But when you watch Illinois, I like their skill guys. They're shifty. They do a lot of different stuff. They'll, they'll run. You know, the screening goes where you know you're faking like you're blocking and running up a seam. They do it across the middle of the field. They do it down the sideline. They got a good mix of backs. They got a big guy in, in. Was it Fabian Fate? Fabian, I believe, and then McFarland I believe is, is a little scat guy. And Altmire has been good. It's crazy when you look at the quarterback's numbers in this game, Altmeyer versus Mendoza, they're like identical. Both have like the 22 incompletions. They're both right at 706 yards and one has nine touchdowns and one has eight. So with Illinois, I worry about the way they've started. And then when you watch that Duke game.
Todd McShay
Yes, that was a big thing to.
Stanford Steve
Me, the Duke game. Duke out gained them, you know, but they had five turnovers. And then Illinois turned those into points and you saw. I believe it was 14, 13. And then they win like what, 4119 or 43 19. So they capitalized on it. They come back last week against Western Michigan again, kind of sluggish to start and then get it rolling on the other side. I have no idea with Indiana. When I watch them and I watched their good. Their good is better than it was last year.
Todd McShay
Yeah, I agree.
Stanford Steve
It is.
Todd McShay
I actually agree.
Stanford Steve
The offensive line, I don't know what's going on there. 67 didn't start last week, but he started game one and then he comes in in the second half. I loved Hemby when he was at Maryland. He's a guy that could go get it. The receivers are legit. I really like the additions at tight end. 37s from Wisconsin stays, who was at Notre Dame and then Tennessee. He's more of a receiver, but he stuck his face in there on those. On those leads and stuff. And I like Mendoza as an upgrade at quarterback. So I look at the balance of Indiana's defense and I trust their offensive line more than. Illinois doesn't have a typical B Lima. Like, I thought I would see more from their tight ends. Blocking, not much. And the O line seem consistent. A couple transfer tackles. I believe they have. It's getting to the point. I think it started like open at three and a half. Now it's up to five and a half. I still would take Indiana. I feel like they've got this thing cranked up. The one thing I'm disappointed in is I thought this would be starting Sunday or Monday. We were going to have a coach's war of words with Belema and Sig. Like, I thought they were going to start firing at each other and both guys have held. I'm shocked. I know we haven't gotten anything.
Todd McShay
I thought that here's. Here's how this would have to work, though. Just so people understand, like, their characters. It. It would have to start with Sig popping off.
Stanford Steve
Yes.
Todd McShay
In a. In a place where he did. And maybe it's coming on Friday, like, because the work's kind of done. Hay's in the barn. So it may still be coming on like Friday.
Stanford Steve
Okay.
Todd McShay
And. But Bill is just like Sig's incapable of like if it's in his head and he. It's just going to come out.
Stanford Steve
Come out. Yeah.
Todd McShay
Bilma's incapable of not responding, retaliating, you know, like he's a reactionary. Like get in trouble. Sig's a starter.
Stanford Steve
So it's got the response already in the drafts.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Stanford Steve
Yes.
Todd McShay
Men's. What do you got on this? I want. No, I want to hear it from.
Mensch
You because this is, I think this is going to be typical from you too. I want to hear what you have.
Todd McShay
It is going to be typical for me. It is, I promise you. Because I look like. Yeah. Illinois is slightly more battle tested. I worry about the, as I wrote down like the Western Illinois, Duke, Western Michigan. They didn't, they did not like fast, the slow starts and I don't think on the road and believe it or not, like this is a, this is a place that's a sneaky good home field advantage.
Stanford Steve
It was awesome last year, right?
Todd McShay
Like awesome. That can be a problem night game. Exactly. So here's the difference that I, that I saw when I was just looking at a little bit of it last yesterday. The wide receivers for Indiana are actually legit. Like, like Sarat is a bonafide NFL prospect. Could be a Day 2 pick. He's 63, leads the team 15 or 6 2, 215 leads the team with 15 catches. The big story, man, I didn't know a ton about omar Cooper.
Stanford Steve
Yeah, monster.
Todd McShay
21 yards, 21 yards per catch, seven touchdowns last year. Right. This year. But, but he only had like 28 catches last year. So you saw the big flashes. But I this year, three games, he's got 13 catches already, almost half the number of catches through three games. Still he's averaging more yards, 23 yards per catch, four of those, 13 for touchdowns. And then you got E.J. williams, remember him at Clemson? Yeah, he went witness protection, transferred to iu. He had two catches last year and now he's a sixth year player and he's breaking out. So like you get three veteran receivers with Mendoza, the run, the run element that he brings to that offense, it was already really good last year. You got a junior, a senior, a six year guy. You got six foot six, two, six three. I, I just. And I don't think Illinois has the secondary that it had. You know when you think back to spoon like so that, that to me is the matchup to keep an eye and they've got a three headed monster with guys who are averaging between five and a half and 7.7 yards per carry. So this is going to be interesting really quickly.
Mensch
Cooper Jr. Had 10 of those catches last week, but he's a dude if they. He's inconsistent, but he's, he's a, he's an absolute dude. Also Mendoza. And the only game that's mattered and really that whole passing attack was Old Dominion and it did not look good. He was a sub 60% completion percentage and he was missing throws, guys dropping passes, all that. But you two are unbelievable because in the preseason I said I was going through all the games that I thought Indiana was going to win this year. And I rattle off Illinois and here comes Stanford. Steve, the top rope sending me a text of. Oh, man's pretty confident in that Indiana team, huh? Really think they're going to just handle Illinois. I don't know about that one, men.
Todd McShay
And here we're game week, game week.
Mensch
And all of a sudden we're all Hoosiers.
Stanford Steve
I, I give you credit from being ahead of the curve. That's what I'm doing.
Mensch
That's what I want my credit. That's all. That's the only thing I'm saying is I want credit.
Stanford Steve
I, I was, I was going to say. I. I forgot to preface it by, by saying matches had this game mark since he has.
Todd McShay
And you know what? Like, it turns out, it's like it's not an elimination game, but it might be an elimination. It could be.
Stanford Steve
I, I don't, I don't see the loot. Like, I, I've loved coming into this season, but I knew it was going to take a while because these Big Ten teams, you know, haven't forged themselves and playing big out of conference games and. But who's going to be that fourth Big Ten team like usc, Washington, Iowa? You know, Iowa took a hit early, but like Illinois and Indiana, they're right there, there. How about Washington? I don't, I don't see you making the playoff. If you lose this game knowing like Indiana sick, you gotta, you gotta go to Iowa after this, you know, with a hungry team. And you know what happens at Kinnick. I think that's going to be a night game. Illinois hosts Ohio State in a couple weeks. Washington gets Ohio State next week. USC comes to Illinois in a couple weeks. Like, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's really, really compelling stuff. And this is a monster. Along with Michigan and Nebraska, it's the same deal. You're going to struggle because everybody, not everybody play each Other, but plenty of teams get their shots at the Big Three in Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State.
Todd McShay
And these are all awesome games. But for some reason, man, I am most excited about where you're going to be. South Florida. And not because I want to stay on south beach and spend a couple extra days in the back end, but because Florida is now 1 and 2 backs against the wall and played like it at 21 of 22 starting positions last week. Outplay, out, pass, no outrushed. I think it was LSU out total offense. LSU had significantly more first downs out time of possession, but their quarterback through five interceptions and they had holding penalties in the most inopportune times you could ever imagine. So with that is the backdrop. You got Miami 3 and oh, the rolling South Beach. Beck's down there. You've got his Lamborghinis back. He's rolling like he's got Malachi Tony that we all knew was supposed to be good, but he's an absolute star. And you got a mentality that feels like it's the right mentality for. For Miami. Not like this fake they're back, the U is back and all this, but like they actually feel like this. This team has the right psyche, but Florida is a wounded, rabid animal. What do you got?
Stanford Steve
I'm with you with Florida. I feel the same way. I. I can't wait to see. I mean, this game. And you know, it's not for Miami, Florida State, but still, it's at that level of. All these dudes know each other.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Stanford Steve
All these dudes knew. Knew where each other was going. And they had in the back of their mind, hey, if so and so goes there, like that might flip me. Like, it is real, real stuff. And that's what's awesome. You'll see. There's going to be some extracurriculars. There's going to be some flags. I put a. Put a freaking.
Todd McShay
There was last week before LSU put.
Stanford Steve
A wall up at the 50 pregame. Like, don't even let it happen on the Florida side. I really was interested to see them last week, knowing how bad and. And seeing, you know, I go back to that last drive against usf and I really think Lagway changed that play to a RPO pass. You know, like, you just look, you're like, you can't do that. You can't do that. And it caught. I mean, that along with eight other things.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Stanford Steve
Cost them the game. You know, it was a domino effect that they kept happening. And USF give credit us. USF for pulling it out. And then they come back next the following week in the. In the best environment there is in the sport, in my opinion. And they get another touchdown called back because of a penalty.
Todd McShay
Like 87 yard touchdown or 80, whatever.
Stanford Steve
It was, would have been up 87. It would have been 10 nothing after the first quarter.
Todd McShay
Yep.
Stanford Steve
So then you go in and then the turnover start happening. But then, like, they get Banks back on the D line. 88, they wore out. And now LSU's offensive line is as a work in progress. I get it. But in that spot, we're in a. Gotta have a game. And Florida's defense just kept coming back. All right, we'll limit them here. We'll limit them here. Another pick, we'll limit them here. That showed me a lot, man. It showed me that the team is bought in. And in the back of my mind, that going in that game, like, I. I didn't have the guts to take floor. I thought they would cover. But in the good that was last year in lagways run six and oh. In games he started, he never started an SEC road game.
Todd McShay
No.
Stanford Steve
And you saw it. You saw it, Todd. You know, it was over. I don't know if you've been there when that swoon happens there. It just keeps going. And then to see Baker just get in his bag with the options that he has defensively, even down two weeks.
Todd McShay
I was telling mentions, I went back and watched that tape. It's like the. The old UNLV amoeba defense. Like, I was like, I don't know because I. It was tight copy. Right. Watching from the end zone behind Lagway, and I'm watching like I don't have a clue if seven's coming off the edge, if he's covering, if he's gonna. If he's gonna blitz the A gap, the B gap, or if he's coming, like, I don't know. And then. And they've got like, it looks like seven safeties back there. And the Weeks brothers are absolute lunatics. And they'll. They'll come off the edge, they'll blitz, but they'll. Like, sometimes there's just like two guys with their hands in the dirt and you just didn't know what was happening. And so I think it'll be more traditional what they'll see from Miami, but it's still going to be an absolute test.
Stanford Steve
Yeah. Yeah. Heatherman, I think, has been a genius coming to Miami. I think Mario's done a great. Just watch. Just watch them. It's not crazy guys moving around. It's simple. They're matching personnel, whether how many are in the box, whatever. But let me tell you, they got some dogs. This 31 Be Saint linebacker.
Todd McShay
Yes. He's an NFL. I talked to a scout actually maybe two weeks ago. I didn't realize how high some teams are on this guy.
Stanford Steve
He might be like the wood.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Stanford Steve
And I asked coach Saban to do. I just want to do a physicality tape on Miami. You put on the first half of the USF game. Bane's wrong arming and putting tackles, tight ends, pullers, whoever it is to. To the ground. Mezador is doing the same exact thing this besaint. I mean, lead backs coming up. I mean you. When you. When you watch the. When you watch the sideline and you see that blocker's head, you know you're getting jolted.
Todd McShay
Yes.
Stanford Steve
But again it's just destruction and it's in its bodies on the ground and Byron Brown's doing his best amidst chaos. And I'm like, they're giving themselves up. Like this is a little bit of sacrifice in here for the better of the defense. And that's what I think makes the great defenses great. I have been so hesitant to jump on the U is back train for 20 years. I've never jumped in. Last year I thought they would make the playoff with Cam or I love them that much and they just missed. I'm in. I'm in. I think. I think they should be the best. The top ranked team in the country. The speed and physicality on the defensive side. Now on the other side, you said you got a wounded animal coming in and probably the most underachieving group I've seen amongst groups mention. Love to get your tight on Florida's offensive line. I mean they were in the top five everywhere this pre slaughter. I do like the tackle. That's going to be an awesome match. Barber. Yeah, yeah. Barber against those ends, I don't know what they're going to do there. But in Napier's offense, when he's been successful, it's all play action.
Todd McShay
Oh.
Stanford Steve
To open throws and what we haven't seen is them run like ball. I think is awesome. But I think he what? 10 for 37, 10 for 40 drove me.
Todd McShay
It drove me nuts. In the USF they gave him six carries on the first drive. He only had 12 the rest of the game.
Stanford Steve
They have to run the football.
Todd McShay
Got to stay committed to.
Stanford Steve
Yeah. So you're going to get Florida's best. They're still in there. And I give Napier a lot of credit when everybody wants to bag on them. His team is still locked in after watching.
Todd McShay
What? No, they, they, they won't quit on him. I know that much.
Stanford Steve
He had an awesome quote this week where he said the, I forgot how he phrased it, but he's like, they say the sign of a beaten man is when he starts making excuses. And I'm not making excuses.
Todd McShay
Yeah.
Stanford Steve
And so I, I thought that was really good stuff. I, I can't wait to go. I, I, I obviously wish Florida was undefeated. Just really see how this stadium, I expect the U to show out. But Saturday night, man, in Miami, it's, it's on. Because like I said, this is big boy. This is state championship stuff. And there's plenty of pride when that happens. Fired up to be there for this one.
Todd McShay
Let me say this, and I know you got to run. The second I saw Heatherman and what he's about and what with the athletes and the skill guys in the South Florida recruiting, I was like, this is exactly what they need. You ready for this? He coached in Austria, Germany, Pittsburgh State. He's from Western, like Oxford, Mass. Right. He coached at Old Dominion. He coached at jmu. He coached at Maine and Rutgers and, and Minnesota. Like life to get a lifer, but also like at the, those programs.
Stanford Steve
Yeah.
Todd McShay
Where it's like we don't have the talent, but we're going to beat your ass up. We're going to play with discipline and toughness and physicality and we're going to wear you down. We're going to do all the things that those programs do to stay better than their talent level. Wins and losses wise. And now he brings it to Miami with those guys. It's been fun to watch. I like, I don't know. I like, I like Florida in this one, huh? Against the spread, not to win it. Yeah. Okay. You give me seven and a half. I just want it on the record for San Francisco. All right. I know you got to get out of here. We appreciate you, man. Love you. Safe travels. We will. We'll talk to you soon.
Stanford Steve
We'll get caught up anytime you guys want.
Todd McShay
Don't forget that four leg parlay. Today's, this is the week.
Stanford Steve
I got it written down. I got it written down. I'm impressed with three underdogs in it too. Appreciate you guys listening to your stuff all the time. You guys are killing it. Love the breakdowns. Nobody's better than you guys. Keep it up.
Todd McShay
All right. Appreciate it, brother. All right, we'll see you he's the best man. Awesome. How about Stanford? Steven. Son of a. Showing up with the Richmond shirt on. He didn't even tell the story why he was wearing it. The Bad Beats. The Bad Beats segment. I know that got you all fired up. Oh, it's brutal.
Mensch
I mean, we're going. Richmond's down, I think 46 to 3 in the game.
Todd McShay
Yep.
Mensch
And we kicked a field goal at the end to. To, to. To cover the spread, man. I can't tell you.
Todd McShay
That's embarrassing. That's it.
Mensch
So soft. Finally Richmond's in the Bad Beats. You wanted, you wanted to be like a backdoor cover where they make some kind of crazy play and they get a touchdown late. Where it's going to happen, you know. No, it's because we kicked a goddamn field goal.
Todd McShay
Yeah, it was, it was kind of a weak moment, but hey, it is what it is. All right. This is a fun show, man. I will Saturday night. We just talked about the two primetime games yet. Indiana, like that's going to be a scene there in Bloomington. Illinois, Indiana, almost an elimination game week four and, and obviously Florida, Miami. We're going to break into those games early. I'll let you know on social media. Follow men if you don't. It's you good. You good. Mensch at you good mensch. And McShay 13, we'll keep you posted on Saturday, but come join us. Get to get it on the big screen, get us on your phones, what however you want to do it. But it's a like I honestly, I think it's the most fun, like 20, 30 minutes of our entire week at least work wise, watching the end of the games and then we recap all of them. So come join us on Saturday night. YouTube, the YouTube channel, the McShay show and. And then you can, you know, listen to it after the fact. Spotify and Apple, wherever else you get your podcast. So we'll see you Saturday night. Don't forget the McShay report. Google it. Get the Arch Manning whole story and breakdown out right now. 5 stars. Mitch must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18/ plus and present in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-G GAMBLER or visit RG D help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma. Org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York. Foreign this episode is brought to you.
Mensch
By the all new ESPN app.
Todd McShay
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Stanford Steve
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Stanford Steve
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Todd McShay
Your hammocking and your pooling. We were made to help organize the competition. Expedia made to travel.
Date: September 18, 2025
Host: Todd McShay (with Mensch and Stanford Steve)
Main Guests: Stanford Steve
Theme: Arch Manning’s struggles and in-depth Week 4 college football game previews (Indiana-Illinois, Florida-Miami, Michigan-Nebraska, Auburn-Oklahoma, and more)
This episode dives deeply into the performance and struggles of Arch Manning, the high-profile Texas quarterback, before shifting into a robust slate of Week 4 college football picks and analysis with fan-favorite Stanford Steve. The crew breaks down top matchups with a focus on team strengths, weaknesses, coaching strategies, and player developments, all with McShay’s signature evaluative style.
“When you collect this kind of money... when you’re a starting quarterback at Texas, you get the same treatment as everybody else.” – Todd McShay (03:57)
“This is a quarterback... that the game is moving too fast... he’s seeing ghosts.” (12:18)
“I don’t have the answer, and I’m not paid to have this answer. I think it’s a tough thing to solve.” – Mensch (15:13) “I know it takes a lot of care from people around you. I know it takes a lot of good support and you gotta lean on it.” – Todd McShay (16:16)
“Let’s put a plug in the dig route to Wingo for a minute... two of Manning’s worst throws just like killing worms in the dirt...” (21:45)
“You could see his demeanor change. He’s like, yep, just got to get him there.” (28:09)
McShay foresees Manning working through this, saying the talent and support are in place but, “right now, as it stands, like it’s absolutely concerning and the only person who’s... gonna be able to solve it is Arch himself.” (28:15)
Timestamp: 31:26 – 74:07
“I forgot how good Neyland is. Like, it’s above Penn State... I put it behind LSU.” – Stanford Steve (32:28)
(35:48–40:33)
“It’s the must vs. the money. The best team money could buy...” – Stanford Steve (36:16)
“Utah... I think it’s the best offensive line in the country.” – Mensch (39:33)
(41:28–46:37)
“Nebraska... is relying on throwing the football... much better defending the pass than the run.” – McShay (45:39)
(46:57–53:40)
“Their pass rush... if he wants to get after the pat, like, he could ruin this whole game.” – Stanford Steve (52:41)
(56:43–64:53)
“The wide receivers for Indiana are actually legit. Like, Sarat is a bonafide NFL prospect.” (61:32)
(64:53–73:49)
“This besaint... I mean, lead backs coming up... you see that blocker’s head, you know you’re getting jolted.” – Stanford Steve (70:09)
“I like Florida in this one, huh? Against the spread, not to win it.” – McShay (73:45)
“If we come in in this four leg parlay. I feel it. I don’t want it on bad beats this week. I want it on beats.” – McShay (55:30)
| Game | Pick/Lean | Key Factors | |------------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | Texas Tech vs. Utah | Utah (team edge) | O-line and physical run game vs. Tech’s questionable D | | Michigan vs. Nebraska | Michigan (close) | Defensive front, Underwood’s legs, Nebraska improved | | Auburn vs. Oklahoma | Oklahoma (slight) | Defensive depth, Auburn pass rush may challenge | | Illinois vs. Indiana | Indiana | WR edge, home field, Illinois slow starts | | Florida vs. Miami | Miami (win), | Miami’s defense, Florida to cover, physical play | | | Florida (cover) | |
This episode stands out for its blend of hard-edged quarterback analysis (on Arch Manning) and the lively, data-driven banter between three seasoned CFB minds. The Manning segment offers a template for how a high-profile prospect’s struggles are diagnosed, while the game picks supply listeners with actionable insights for the weekend slate.
If you want to understand the human element behind young quarterbacks’ performance as well as get high-level game previews for your Week 4 college football bets, this is a can't-miss episode from McShay and his crew.