The McShay Show: "Who Are the True CFP Contenders? Plus, the Latest Scouting Intel and Five NFL Draft Prospects on the Rise."

Host: Todd McShay (with co-host Mitch) | The Ringer | September 15, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the evolving landscape of college football’s playoff picture after a wild week three, with a focus on identifying the true National Championship contenders. Todd McShay and Mitch break down top AP-ranked teams, analyze whether rankings reflect on-the-field reality, and examine the crucial differences between analytics and the eye test. The duo also delivers key scouting insights and spotlights five NFL draft prospects who have seen their stock rise, blending McShay’s signature inside intel from NFL front offices and his player evaluation expertise.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Breaking Down the College Football Playoff Bubble

• AP Poll Analysis:

  • Current top powers: Ohio State (1), Penn State (2), LSU (3), Miami (4), Georgia (5), Oregon (6), Florida State (7), Texas (8), Illinois (9), Texas A&M (10), Oklahoma (11), Iowa State (12), Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee.
  • McShay wants to look past the AP poll and focus on teams’ tape, not just rankings.
  • McShay: "You and I haven't talked at all... wanted to just look at the AP poll but really dive into what we're seeing on tape." (03:04)

• Legit National Title Contenders:

  • Consensus on Ohio State, Penn State, LSU, Miami, Georgia, Oregon as prime contenders.
  • Mitch: “That's fair to say... I would maybe add Oklahoma and Texas A&M, but those are the odds on favorites.” (05:53)
  • Skepticism around Penn State due to limitations in their passing game (Drew Allar struggles).
  • Teams like Miami and Georgia possibly deserve to be higher; Texas and Illinois not fully trusted yet.

Team-By-Team Deep Dive

Ohio State

• Lost talent but retains top billing, though there are reservations about being clear-cut #1.

Penn State

• Questions linger about their real strength; dominant defense but untested passing game.
• Mitch: "I think they are wildly overrated at this point... passing game has not looked good." (07:31)
• Marking the September 27 game vs. Oregon as a true test.

Oregon

• Confusing AP poll drop despite beating Northwestern soundly. The group still believes in their legitimacy.
• Mitch: "I'm as high on Oregon as I've ever been..." (14:09)

LSU

• Praised for defense; offense seen as conservative, sometimes to a fault.
• McShay: “If our defense is going to turn over Lagway five times… let's play conservatively, manage the game, not make mistakes and come out of this thing on top.” (15:18)
• Discussion of Brian Kelly’s sideline demeanor and media relations.
• Mitch: “Can you imagine making $10 million a year at LSU and calling a reporter that makes a fraction of what you make spoiled?” (16:32)

Miami & Georgia

• Miami is labeled as a potential real contender thanks to elite fronts and key weapons.
• Mitch: “My gut tells me Miami is for real.” (33:42)
• Georgia praised for resilience, especially at QB with Gunner Stockton.
• Mitch: “I come out of that [Tennessee] game firmly believing they're a top five team with a chance to win the national championship.” (38:38)
• Concerns over Georgia's defensive drop-off but confidence Kirby Smart will fix issues.

Tennessee

• Despite the recent loss, offense has impressed and deserves to stay in the playoff mix.

Texas A&M & Oklahoma

• Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has shown progress; development will be pivotal.
• Both schools could contend but face a "cannibalizing" SEC schedule.
• SEC overall depth and talent seen as superior to other conferences (e.g., Big Ten parity, but not as deep).

Missouri & The Gauntlet of the SEC

• Missouri called a dangerous spoiler team.
• Mitch: “There is danger everywhere in the SEC.” (45:29)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mitch on Penn State:
  “I think they are wildly overrated at this point… their passing game has not looked good.” (07:31)
• McShay on strength of record vs. strength of schedule:
  “Strength of record is who you've played, how you've won those games… it feels a little bit more tangible.” (08:44)
• Mitch on LSU’s Brian Kelly:
  “He looks miserable. Cheer up, Coach Kelly. It's not that bad.” (16:32)
• McShay on SEC depth:
  “It's the depth that is the difference and it's the week in week out… when I start reading all these teams' schedules, I'm doing it for a reason.” (45:29)
• Mitch on Miami:
  “What do you need to win late? You look at that offensive line... defensive front is elite, and then you add on an accurate quarterback… Miami is for real.” (33:42)
• McShay on Chris Brazell II:
  “Brazell looks different than anybody else in the country at wide receiver in the 2026 draft class. He just looks different.” (60:53)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Main AP Top 12 & Playoff Bubble Discussion: 03:00–12:00
• Debate: Penn State Real or Overrated? 07:00–12:00
• LSU vs. Florida - Defensive Masterclass & Brian Kelly Rant: 15:00–22:00
• Inside LSU’s Defensive Schemes & Personnel: 23:29–28:52
• Miami and Georgia’s Contender Cases: 32:24–38:40
• Tennessee Offense & Playoff Implications: 41:32–41:50
• SEC Schedule “Cannibalization” and Big Ten Comparison: 43:00–46:59
• NFL Draft Risers Discussion Begins: 47:41–66:00

Scouting Intel: Five NFL Draft Prospects on the Rise

1. Jaren Kenick, TE, Oklahoma

   • Transitioned from linebacker, leads all FBS TEs with 245 yards in 3 games.
   • Mitch: “He played quarterback, wide receiver and linebacker in high school—you can see that… he’s got a good feel for how to attack zone looks.” (51:04)
   • Size (6-2, 233) and limited blocking may drop his draft ceiling, but special teams ability and toughness may result in a long NFL career.

2. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

   • Athletic, aggressive off-ball linebacker, quickly becoming a centerpiece on the defense.
   • McShay: “He’s the next great one and it’s happening right now... maybe round one.” (54:10)

3. Vincent Anthony Jr., EDGE, Duke

   • Has five sacks through three games; wins with speed and bend.
   • Mitch: “He can drop a little bit, strong enough to set the edge against the run… he's going to be someone at the end of the year people are looking at.” (56:54)

4. Chris Brazell II, WR, Tennessee

   • Posed as a likely top WR for the 2026 draft class, drawing raves for size (6-5), speed, and production.
   • McShay: “Brazell looks different than everyone else in the country at wide receiver in the 2026 draft class.” (60:53)
   • Just had 6 catches, 177 yards, 3 TDs vs. Georgia; questions around polish, but “…there is no doubt in my mind he's a first round talent.” (63:31, Mitch)

5. Aiden Chiles, QB, Michigan State (Honorable mention, scouting in progress)

   • Intriguing toolset, recent tapes queued up for review.

Quick Hits: Miscellaneous Insights

• SEC weapons and offensive explosiveness have returned; impact players mostly at WR (Ryan Williams, Cam Coleman, etc.).
• The “strength of record” metric is prioritized over “strength of schedule” due to early season scheduling quirks.
• Coaches’ sideline behavior and media tension indicative of program pressure bubbles (focus on LSU, Clemson, Texas).
• Big Ten is deeper now, but SEC still seen as the conference with the most daunting week-in, week-out grind.

Conclusion and What’s Next

• With the nonconference slate closing, all eyes are turning to key September and early October showdowns (notably Oregon vs. Penn State).
• College football’s playoff field is still murky, but McShay and Mitch see a clear tier of 6–8 legitimate contenders—many awaiting defining tests.
• Next episode: Previewing Week 4 games and likely special guests.

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Summary prepared from the original conversational transcript by The McShay Show (Sept. 15, 2025).