The McShay Show — Episode Summary

Date: April 3, 2026
Episode Title: Will Mendoza or Cousins Start? Plus, the Draft Outliers Confidence Index
Hosts: Todd McShay & Steve Muench
Main Guests/Topics: Bain, Simpson, Lemon, and Deep-Dive on Outlier Prospects

Overview

In this episode, Todd McShay and Steve Muench dive into the most contentious and intriguing storylines leading up to the NFL Draft, focusing on the debate of whether Fernando Mendoza or Kirk Cousins will start in Arizona, the high-stakes maneuvering at the top of the draft (especially around the Cardinals' #3 pick), and a robust debate about "outlier" prospects and their real chances in the league. The hosts unpack notable performances, team strategies, and share their “Confidence Index” on several divisive prospects.

Fernando Mendoza vs. Kirk Cousins: The Arizona Conundrum

Timestamps: 00:01–08:46

• Mendoza: #1 Overall Pick — as a Backup?
  • McShay opens by addressing how Fernando Mendoza, widely discussed as a top pick, is now slated to be a backup for at least a season in Arizona following the team's deal with Kirk Cousins.
  • This mirrors a philosophical shift: "College quarterbacks are not being prepared for the starting job in the NFL… Kirk Cousins gets signed essentially… to relieve that stressor of being the day one starter and I think it’s absolutely brilliant." (McShay, 02:48)
• Why Backing Up Is Actually Smart
  • Muench agrees with the rationale, but cautions: “When Kirk Cousins is old Kirk Cousins, post-Achilles injury, and they’re 0–4—what then?” (Muench, 03:36)
  • McShay’s retort: Week 5 is a lot better than week 1 for starting a rookie QB; “Wouldn’t it be better to… sit back and watch how he [Cousins] prepares?... Mendoza doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. Mahomes didn’t know what he didn’t know.” (McShay, 05:52)
• Endorsing Patience and Development
  • Both hosts see the move as positive: “Any starts is better than starting week one in my opinion. Any number of games you can sit back and learn...” (McShay, 08:25)
  • Parallels are drawn to Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love as examples of successful apprenticeships.

Prospect Flags & Performance Highlights

Timestamps: 08:46–13:48

• Gabe Akis, Illinois EDGE — The Personal Flag
  • McShay plants his flag on edge rusher Gabe Akis, citing his unique physical measurables and elite 10-yard split (1.59 at 261 lbs):
    • “Bill Polian always said… I needed guys that ran a 10 split at 1.60 or faster and [Akis] just ran a 1.59.” (McShay, 10:38)
  • Akis' dominance is accentuated via game tape: "I love when players show up in other tapes… Caleb Tiernan looked great, but the one game he struggled was against Illinois and it was Gabe Akis. The length, the power, the motor…” (Muench, 11:20)

Draft FORESHADOWING: Arizona at #3 and the Ripple Effect

Timestamps: 13:48–19:32

• Conflicting Intel on Cardinals’ Plans
  • McShay shares dueling reports:
    • One, that someone inside Arizona is pushing hard to just stick and select "the best player in the draft" (RB Jeremiah Love).
    • The other, that the team may trade down; notable buzz about Dallas moving up from #12 for Texas Tech's David Bailey.
  • “That third pick becomes the first tipping point of this draft… right now… it could be Jeremiah Love if they stick and pick, or trading out for an offensive tackle, or prepping for a 2027 QB.” (McShay, 18:33)

The Draft Outliers Confidence Index

Timestamps: 21:33–52:00

Introduction: The Emotional Side of Scouting

• “Outliers suck.” McShay and Muench discuss the emotional investment in subjective evaluation.
• McShay: “You fall in love with these players… but then you come across one—it’s not unlike dating.” (McShay, 23:16)

McShay’s Outlier Prospects

1. Ty Simpson (QB)

• Question mark: Only one year as a starter, undersized.
• “I think he can be a good starter in the league. But I recognize the outlier—the one-year starter, first-round draft pick, that doesn’t fly.” (McShay, 25:24, 40:36)
• Confidence: 7/10

2. Reuben Bain (EDGE)

• Red flag: 30 7/8" arms—unprecedentedly short for the position.
• “He wins with leverage… It won’t be his arm length that prevents him from being a great player. He’s violent with his hands… Reuben Bain ain’t failing in the NFL. Get outta here.” (McShay, 32:30)
• Muench interjects: “Despite the length… he gets into offensive tackles, he pushes them around… I do think it’ll translate.” (Muench, 33:08)
• Confidence: McShay 9/10 ("I don’t see a world…"), Muench: 8/10

3. Spencer Fano (OT)

• Issue: Short arms, small hand span, projected in top 15.
• “If I’m drafting a tackle in the top 15, I want Kelvin Banks... I want that kind of rookie season. I think he’ll be an awesome center if he kicks in, but I’m not sure he’ll excel at OT.” (McShay, 48:00)
• Confidence: 5/10
• Muench: “You have to protect against yourself… It’s a height/weight league, and there are certain parameters—if you fall outside, it’s tough to make it.” (Muench, 49:48)

Muench’s Outlier Prospects

1. Makai Lemon (WR)

• Red flag: 5’11", 30.5" arms, 8 ¾” hands—small even for a slot receiver, projected first round.
• “I don’t like drafting average size slot receivers that early… Five [out of ten] confidence in that happening.” (Muench, 34:15, 34:44)
• McShay notes the history: “He’s the shortest of the top 5 elite receivers in the class... I like him late first if I could get him…” (McShay, 37:25)
• Confidence: 5/10 (Muench), 7/10 if in right system (McShay)

2. Lee Hunter (DT)

• Outlier: Weak vertical, slightly unconventional build.
• “I just think Lee Hunter is a good football player. I don’t know if he was ready for the vertical jump… But I’m a realist. I’ll go seven [out of ten].” (Muench, 30:46)
• McShay agrees: “He’s nasty, man… Not getting out of the second. Probably top 50.” (McShay, 31:08)

3. D’Angelo Pons (CB)

• Concerns: Sub-5’9”, 29 3/8" arms—very short for an outside corner.
• “It’s tougher for small corners in the NFL now; the league won’t let them play as physically…” (Muench, 45:11)
• Confidence: 6/10 (at pick 54, late round two)
• McShay’s take: “Pons might be the most instinctive player in the draft… runs a 4.31, tough as nails. What else you want, bro?” (McShay, 46:10–46:15)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Mendoza as a backup:
  "He's being drafted to be a backup, according to this deal that was just done with Kirk Cousins… I think it's absolutely brilliant." — McShay (02:48)
• On why prospects should sit:
  "Nothing can prepare you… Nothing. There's not much better to prepare you [than] sitting back and watching." — McShay (05:00)
• On emotional investment in scouting:
  "You fall in love with these players… then you come across one—it’s not unlike dating." — McShay (23:16)
• On Akis's athleticism:
  "At 261 pounds, I told you, Bill Polian… we needed closers, we played in a dome. I needed guys that ran a 10 split at 1.60 or faster. He just ran a 1.59." — McShay (10:38)
• On handling outliers:
  "There are certain parameters—if you fall outside of it, it's tough. It's tough to make it." — Muench (49:48)
• On the evolving GM role:
  "Now scouts spend 70% of their time trying to figure out who the human being is… Because there's so much information, and then you've got all these analytics…" — McShay (49:54)

Additional Insights & Quick Hits

• 2027 Quarterback Class Already on Teams’ Radars:
  • Some teams, including Cleveland and the Jets, are openly positioning for the 2027 QB class rather than selecting a QB this year.
• Historical Analytics Weigh Heavy:
  • Joel Klatt's research cited: Average Super Bowl-winning QB had 35 college starts (Brady included)—intensifying doubts about Ty Simpson and other one-year starters.
• Draft Strategy Crossroads:
  • Cardinals’ options at #3: trade down for OL/edge (Bailey), take best player (Love), or set up for 2027.
  • Importance of positional value vs. best-player-available doctrine discussed.

Confidence Index Quick Recap

| PROSPECT | OUTLIER FLAG | DRAFT RANGE | CONFIDENCE (1–10) | NOTES | |----------|--------------|-------------|-------------------|-------| | Ty Simpson | One-year starter | 20–35 | 7 (McShay), 4 (Muench) | High upside, but historical red flags | | Reuben Bain | Short arms | Top 10 | 9 (McShay), 8 (Muench) | "Gets into frames, violent hands" | | Spencer Fano | Short arms/hands | Top 15 | 5 (both) | Projects as C/G; skepticism at OT | | Makai Lemon | Undersized WR | Mid–late 1st | 5–7 | Great tape, but slot size limits upside | | Lee Hunter | Below average vertical | Early 2nd | 7 | Production outweighs metrics | | D’Angelo Pons | Short, short arms CB | Late 2nd | 6 | Instincts vs. modern NFL rules |

Closing Thoughts

• The hosts repeatedly emphasize the difficulty of balancing “falling in love” with a prospect and sticking to historical precedent or analytics, especially for outliers who defy the mold.
• As the NFL Draft approaches, the Arizona QB plan and the fate of high-variance prospects like Bain, Simpson, Lemon, and Fano remain the most suspenseful plotlines.
• McShay’s final words highlight the real-time, pressure-cooker nature of NFL decision-making: "The GM seat’s an interesting one, isn’t it? For so many reasons… In 20 days we’re going to celebrate this whole thing." (50:00–52:04)

Episode Table of Contents

• 00:01–08:46 – Mendoza vs. Cousins: Arizona’s Plan
• 08:46–13:48 – Gabe Akis & Edge Rusher Evaluations
• 13:48–19:32 – Cardinals’ Draft Strategy & Trade Scenarios
• 21:33–52:00 – Outlier Draft Prospect Roundtable (with Confidence Index)
• 52:00–End – Philosophical Wrap-Up; The Evolving Nature of Scouting

For further in-depth scouting reports and updates, visit The Ringer’s McShay Draft Room.