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Foreigners and scouting suck. We'll explain. But first we've got Fernando Mendoza being drafted number one overall to be a backup. The Arizona Cardinals a lot of buzz with that third pick and my favorite player in the draft just ran an elite time. Just 20 days until the NFL Draft met. You good? I'm good, man. Roll it. Tuck. Felt pretty good about some of the news we got yesterday on Thursday mention. Let's start with Fernando Mendoza. It's the number one overall pick. We just talked the other day about the pro day and all the things that we love about him, not from the pro day but the things that kind of off the field and the way he carries himself. He's being drafted to be a backup according to this deal that was just done with Kirk Cousins. You're listening to the McShay show presented by FanDuel and soon we'll all be listening to all the names called in this year's NFL Draft. But with FanDuel you don't have to just listen because FanDuel has all kinds of bets on where players will land. You know I love this stuff. Not only can you bet on who will be drafted first overall, but you can also bet on whether a player will go in the top five, top 10 and so much more. So if you don't already have it, be sure to download the FanDuel sportsbook app today. Must be 21 and older in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-Gambler, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. This is exactly what we've been talking about for over a year now. You know with, with Tom Brady and the minority stake leaders and ownership that he has with the Raiders. His big campaign when he came out of out of playing and came entered into retirement. I remember on multiple shows including Colin Cowherd show the herd was college quarterbacks are not being prepared for the starting job in the NFL. And he was like literally like planting a flag on the disservice that's being done by these rookie quarterbacks coming in as first round picks and having to start. And he put his money, literally put his money and the Davis family money and the entire organization of the Raiders money where their mouths were his mouth. Has been for a long time now for over a year. Kirk Cousins gets signed essentially, essentially forget all the numbers that you're seeing in multi year deal and over $100 million. Essentially it's a one year 20 million dollar deal to come in and to take. To relieve that. That stressor of being the day one starter and I think it's absolutely brilliant. What say you?
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I love it. I wouldn't have worded it the way you did with where Brady's mouth has been. That was interesting to me. I'll also say.
A
Agreed. Thank you. You always have my blind spots.
B
You always tell me this too though. You always say you. Everyone's got a plan. I mean it's a.
A
It's.
B
Everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face. And I love the plan. I love the plan. But when Kirk Cousins is old Kirk Cousins post Achilles injury. Kirk Cousins and, and they're owing for. I mean, how.
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Fine. Fine.
B
Okay, tell me why. Tell me. What do you mean?
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Because week five is a hell of a lot better than week one. And if that organization is going to lose four games with Kurt Cousins out of the gate, they're probably going to lose four games with Fernando Mendoza or go one in three or something like that. Not dissimilar from Russell Wilson with, with Jackson Dart. Dissimilar. And that one's the number one overall pick. The other Jackson Dart was. Was, you know, mid-20s and the second first round pick for the New York Giants a year ago. But not dissimilar from. If things start off poorly, we're not expecting it, we're not coaching for it. But if they start off poorly, it's okay to let our, our, our future at the position. Sit back and watch. I've told you, go ahead. Yeah. Because if so, if they go on
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four, he can come in because they alleviated the pressure. But in a perfect world, a little bit of the pressure on the rookie because the season's pretty much tanked at that point. But in a perfect world, you'd have rather have him sit longer or. Is Mendoza ready? What do you think? Like, I mean.
A
Oh, I don't think he's. I don't. When we say ready, what does that mean? Like. Like he's a smart young man. He's going to grind out this playbook. He's already working with Brian Greasy on getting ready for, for, you know, what's to come mentally. But nothing can prepare you right. For art. It's my job. But nothing. There's not much better to prepare you. Like, I mean Patrick, Patrick Mahomes is a great example. Aaron Rodgers is a great example. Jordan Love is a great example. Like sitting back and watching. You can learn some, some of the things that, that yes, you're going to learn them on the job. But wouldn't it be better to like, okay, I've got a decade plus starter in Kirk Cousins who does it, who does every little thing the right way. Not dissimilar from Alex Smith, right?
B
Yeah.
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I get to sit back and watch how he prepares. Now. I prepare the right way in the ways I know how to prepare if I'm Mendoza. Mendoza just like any quarterback. This isn't a Mendoza specific thing. Mendoza doesn't know what he doesn't know. Mahomes didn't know what he didn't know. I told you about the conversation I had with him during the preseason games before his first year as a full time starter when he's like Todd, I didn't know I could ID the mic like 30, like 30 accuracy when I first started out and then I got better as the year went on and I learned 10 other things along the way and I got to watch a consummate pro and how he so like this sets him up for success through OTAs off season preseason opening game. So if it's four games, if it's eight games, if it's 12 games, whatever it is, I think Mendoza benefits greatly from this man.
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B
Yeah, I agree. I like the move overall. I mean, don't get me wrong, I really do. And I also hope that the social media team for the Raiders realizes what they have here because I think these guys are going to be best friends and the plays, the things they can do here, like, you know, stepbrothers, gifts and memes. And these guys are going to be the like thick as thieves, I think because they are.
A
And also, I mean it's not lost on anyone, right, that you're bringing in two Saints. And I don't mean New Orleans bringing in two Saints. Right. The city of sin, like, it's just, it's wonderful. Yeah, it is.
B
It's great. And I think that they will be great together. Um, I think Cousins is probably at the point in his career where he's ready to really help someone out. Like, I love the signing. Overall, I just what I'm interested in is going back to the. The original point is that Brady thinks these quarterbacks should sit. We all agree and I think it. And I would acknowledge the fact that I, I was in their shoes too. I, I wonder how patient I would be. So I wonder how patient they will be. Like what is the breaking point for them to say, okay, now we're going to play him.
A
Yeah, any start. I mean even Drake may like any starts is better than, than starting week one in my opinion. Any, any number of games you can sit back and learn like the week to week process and what goes into it and you know, so, so that's, that's news. Which I, I view is all positive. Another little in this one. Self serving, bro.
B
Here we go.
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Gabe Akis, one of my favorite players in this draft. Edge rusher from Illinois. Sometimes just like you do, you plant flags. I plant flags. Every evaluator plants flags. You see something in them that maybe other people don't see. And sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong. Last year, for example, I planted a flag in Tyler Schuck. Feel really good about it right now. We'll see how it plays out. Planted another flag in, in Jackson Dart, but I don't think I was like all that ahead of it. Some wide receivers I was bullish on because I, you know, in a weird wide receiver class. I loved, I loved Higgins. The two Iowa State guys.
B
Yeah.
A
I love Jalen Noel. Both the, the, you know, Jaden Higgins, Jalen Noel off to good starts. Chamiri dk. I loved him and had the year that he had. Now it doesn't mean he's gonna be a star, but there are some players I love. I was lower on. On. Talk about a. I was lower on Tetaroa McMillan.
B
Yeah.
A
I was lower on.
B
Love to remind you on that one.
A
Yep. On Schlesinger, linebacker, offensive and defensive rookies of the year. So I'm not a genius. But you, you, you fall in love with players. Gabe Akis is one of those guys. I've got him in my top 32. I ain't budging. I wouldn't have budgeted if he didn't run well today. But at £261, this is a story. I'm not just doing this because he's my guy. It is a story. Just like, just like Jermod McCoy running in the four threes and D' Angelo Pons running in the four twos by some scouts. And the low four threes is, is important at this point. The four, six, five is nice. That's, that's, that's a good time. The 1 5, 9, 10 split is where it's like, oh, at 261 pounds, I told you. Bill Polian, when he came out of, came out of. When he retired and came to the ESPN and we were just talking philosophically about all like hundreds of different, different things. And he was like, my big thing was we needed speed rushers, we needed closers, we played in a dome on turf. I needed guys that ran and I didn't care how big. I needed guys that ran a 10 split at 1.60 or faster and he just ran a 15 9. So I don't feel like such a wild card, to be honest with you, because I look around and nobody's got them in their top 32. A159.
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They should. I. I was watching and I know
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you're high on them too. I don't want to make. This isn't just about me, about Akis.
B
You know when you love when players show up in other tapes. Like I'm watching Caleb Tiernan, the Northwestern offensive tackle, maybe guard, depending on what teams view him as. He's got some short arms. I love Tiernan as a pass blocker. And I'm watching all these tapes back to back. Oregon Tieran looks great. The one game that he struggled, that I, I felt like he struggled in pass pro was Illinois and it was Gabe Aus. The length, the power, the motor gave Tiernan some problems in that game. So it was, you know, you fall in love with this one player and think he's a great pass blocker and then you see him against another guy you like. It's awesome when you see those battles, right? I mean, the Cade McDonald vs. Vega Ione was another one that jumped out this year. That was a pretty good battle snow game too, which I loved. These guys out there in the snow getting after it. But he showed up in other tapes. I love when you're doing that. In, in he pops.
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I love when I look down on my phone. Not that I wasn't listening to you, because I was, but. And I just see pop up Archie Manning in, in the whole group text just drilling out names right now, trying to finalize this. The Manning Passing Academy.
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And it's top of mind for you right now, right?
A
No, I just, I'm looking down and it's, there's, there's a nice little segue here of like, there's already buzz with like Manning Passing academy about the 20, 27 quarterback class. And so. Yeah, and it's, it's coming from everywhere, right. Like everywhere I turn and we'll get to the way too early mock draft on a couple days after this draft and doesn't take away from anything that's going on in this class. But there are some teams that are looking ahead to 2027 and we're questioning like Cleveland Browns. Don't think you're taking with two first round picks quarterback this year. Let's build this team out. Let's get a weapon, let's get protection. Let's get it ready for 2027. Same thing. Geno Smith gets brought in for the New York jets. They pick it 2 and 16. Love Ty Simpson. Don't think he's going to either of those places with their second pick. I think the jets very clearly, as I've said from the jump and have good intel on this. Their moves that they made in the off season, including one of their deals. They were offered a first round pick this year and a second next year. They said no, we'll do the deal if it's a second this year and a first next year. We our guy next year. Arizona is another one that we're looking at and saying H. What do they pick three and do they pick again? No, they don't have. No, sorry. Yeah.
B
They only have three.
A
Yeah, three. And then there a lot of people projecting.
B
Yeah.
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To get Ty Simpson. Right. Remains to be seen. I've gotten two different very interesting nuggets. I just want to run through this real quick. I want to get you. I'm going to tell you what I've heard from two different people that typically have good information. Information. Okay, one person regarding the Arizona Cardinals with the third pick. Let's assume for these purposes. Right, Steve, Here we go. Mendoza's number one overall pick and the number two overall pick is Arvel Reese.
B
We still feel good about Reese right now.
A
Let's. Let's not have that discussion now. But okay. It's a discussion I want, I want to have. Okay. And we got 20 days until the draft. Less than three weeks. Okay. Yeah, I do feel good, but I don't have confirmation. Number three Cardinals. One source is saying, I know Schefter said the clock start starts on Jeremiah Love at number five. He's not going Tennessee. I know there's someone in that building who's pushing really, really hard for Jeremiah Love that has a say. Okay. Then I got another person and I've seen this in like mock drafts and people have been talking about this wasn't surprising. But Another person like trading, trading out of three is. Remains one of the priorities or one of the. The things that could absolutely happen with, with Arizona. There's a lot of buzz about Dallas and I when it comes to noise with Dallas trading up from 12 to three to get Bailey. Right. Keep it in state. Texas Tech pass rusher. Most importantly, they're just, they've. They've put all their efforts into rebuilding that defense over the last year of last year. And so. But, but then there's. But then there's the back and forth with the other one. Like maybe, maybe it is a trade out but it could be maybe one or two spots where they could still get Jeremiah Love. So when I say to you Arizona could be trading out of that spot, a team could be trying to trade up for. For an edge, specifically David Bailey. And I also say to you there's someone in that building, according to my source that is pushing really hard for. Let's just take the best player in this draft at 3. But they still need an offensive tackle. They still need edge. You know what I mean? And if they are preparing for 2027, is that the right move a la Ashton Jinty last year? What, what comes to your mind when you hear both of those kind of conflicting bits of information? I'm getting on Arizona at three.
B
We'll start with them taking Love at three. I get it from a value standpoint because we both think he's the best player in the draft. The positional value scares me and I honestly think it says more about how they might feel about the tackle group that they don't feel like there's a tackle. Right?
A
Bingo.
B
Right. So that's what it says.
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There's a thought. We need a tackle. We like these tackles. Could we trade out and if we don't trade out of this spot is the value there. Is the value there are we. Even though we don't love taking a running back in three, we, we absolutely think the world of. Of Jeremiah Love. Right?
B
Yeah. The other, the flip side of this though is you mentioned that Dallas coming up to get Bailey. I mean it feels like there's going to be a few good edge rushers when they pick it. They're 12. Right. I. They must really like Bailey more than anyone else. That's interesting to me too that they.
A
Which I can see he's the best pass rusher in the class. Right?
B
Yeah.
A
But it's.
B
I don't think he's head and shoulders over everyone else. I just don't. I. He's a Lighter guy. I listen.
A
I really like most proven. Most proven. I'm just, I'm making the argument for most proven, polished. Yep.
B
With. With a lot of tools. Like, I get all of that. But I mean, what are you giving up to get from 12 to 3? Because that's what it is.
A
Third round pick is what people are saying, like 90 something, but yeah. So I don't know. I just thought that was fascinating because. And you brought it to where I think it belongs. Offensive tackles, what you'd like to get done. Because the shelf falls off. Right. Right after those first seven. If Ianacho or the sep. Is this is the seventh offensive tackle and he goes in the first round, you don't. There's not a guy that you want to draft until the third and that guy isn't someone you're projecting to be your starter.
B
Right.
A
So if you can trade back, get an additional pick to address other needs
B
or help you get back into the first round to get Ty Simpson.
A
Okay. Yeah.
B
All the threads, all the threads, all the threads.
A
So. So that pick becomes kind of the first tipping point of this draft. You know what pick one is? The jets are hanging tight, most likely, unless they get some strange offer that I don't anticipate and it seems like Arvel Reese. Then you get to pick three and it's like, oh, they're going to take Maui Noah or they could take David Bailey, but. But right now, like it could be Jeremiah Love if they stick and pick. It could be trading out of that spot and. And positioning themselves for an offensive tackle. That. That is a better value later in the first, whether that's pick 12 or somewhere between 4 and 12. And maybe the using that additional pick on another spot to get ready for quarterback in 2027 or as you said, to move up to go get Ty Simpson in late in round one. So all fascinating stuff.
B
Yeah.
A
But I don't regret getting to any of this except trying to look up the Dallas Cowboys third. Third round pick. But we, we got a lot still to get to. We haven't even started the show. Dallas picks at 92. This print a new chart. I mean, it's all playing out the way it should.
B
Listen, I show Dan Comer is the best. It felt like he slow played that one a little bit. Like he was letting us. Like he just left us out in the, in the wind for a minute. Like he was, he was like, oh, let's watch him squirm. Like he knew what he did. 92 like a minute ago. Two minutes ago.
A
That was my punishment for being late to the show. Y that's what it was. I got it. All right.
B
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I started off the show in the open with outliers suck. I did an article the other day in the newsletter and please subscribe. We've got three weeks left. We like we did a second round for the mock draft for it. We're getting tons of information coming in. Subscribe, just Google it. The McShay report and you'll. You'll see what you're about to get for the next few weeks and beyond. I did. I did five players in there. You can read about all of them. I'll share three of them here. Not because I'm holding out, but because for the purposes of I want to do this with you, Steve. You've got three outliers. Let me give a little backdrop. Okay?
B
You.
A
You form a relationship with players. You have no choice but to mostly it's good and positive. It starts that way. And. And if I'm gonna commit, I want you to think about if you're driving in your car right now or sitting in your office or wherever you are, if you spent four to six hours doing whatever it is you, you form a bond with whatever that is. Right. You, and you sit down and you're watching tape and you're studying it in the darker room and you're writing down notes and, and then you're doing comparisons to what he could be and you're looking up combine numbers and pro day numbers and you're doing background checks and you're texting people in the league for information and then you're, you're doing some analytical work and you're trying to plug in what does this work and what are you doing? And then, and so you're watching it and then you come across one. It's not, it's not unlike dating. Right. We all dated.
B
Yeah.
A
And some of you listening or watching right now may be dating or some of you listening, watching right now haven't really hit your peak of dating. And good luck to you.
B
Here we go again.
A
It's, It's a wild, wild world.
B
That's why the combine sucks. Sometimes you get to the combine, you're
A
like, oh, I thought he's gonna do pretty and I knew that Reuben Bayne had short arms. But when you, when you come in and it's official how short they are and then you have all the nerds who I've come to love, all the nerds giving you historical data like he's going to be the first, first round edge with shorter than 31 inch arms.
B
Yeah.
A
In, in, in 20 years and we haven't had a, a less than 31 inch arm length guy at the combine go on to have double digit sacks as a pass rusher in two decades. That hurts and it sucks. And do like Ty Simpson. You look at it and you watch him play the game like he's a four year starter. And then you add like he's undersized, but that's not an outlier his size. But the one year starter with the undersized with the not holding up the first year with the. And it sucks and it does with Fano. So I want to get to those three guys and I want to hear your three guys. I mean I basically just laid it out. Ty Simpson's the one year starter first round draft pick. If he's a first round draft pick, that doesn't fly. You can see here on the, on our website our beautiful new scouting reports. If you haven't checked it out yet like come on, it's and we're getting ready next week to drop another 50 evaluations and, and, and ramp it up to the top 150 prospects overall. I'm changing that on Dan every day. That's why he's pissed. That's why he's holding out the Cowboys third round pick because I'm making his, his weekend miserable. But it's the ringer.com McShay theringer.com McShay it's mentioned on my, like it's our collective baby. We had a baby together and it's, it's called
B
I really don't know what's gotten into you.
A
I'm, I'm out of sorts and I love it. So you've got that with Ty Simpson who I'm still holding on to a late first round grade. I think he can be a good starter in the league. I truly do based off the tape. But I recognize the outlier liar, Reuben Bain. As I mentioned, 30 and 3/4 inch arm length. You sorry. 30 and 78 inch arm length. I told you, under 30, 31 inches. Two decades since it's been a first rounder. He's going to break that. But who cares? What we care about is the production. Is he going to be a double digit sack guy? And I'll get into Reuben Bain and with all of these guys mentioned, I want to go through and do an index 1 through 10 our confidence in where they're going to get drafted 1 through 10. Do they play up to that value? And then the final guy I've got is Spencer Final, the offensive tackle who you like a lot of. I do too. But I look at Spencer Fano and like honestly, we talked about Campbell last year, Will Campbell. We've seen Rashawn Slater. I think he plays a lot like Rashawn Slater. Slater had 33 inch arms. Campbell had 30, had had a little bit longer arms and was up to 30. He went to 33. 33.
B
Yeah. There's, there's other guys though like Luke Cadecki, but that's it. Braden Smith and okay, Bernhard, Raymond. There are three others. There are, there are some 33 inch
A
guys but Braden Smith and Bernhard Raymond. Are we, are we pumped if we're using a top 12 pick? I don't. Yeah, good point, good point. You know what I mean?
B
There's an argument to be made there. I don't. You're not saying that you wouldn't want those guys on your team. There's a difference between saying, you know, saying that These would be good players on your team. You're not looking for good players. You're looking for pro bowlers. You're looking for guys who match the value of their draft slot. So I get the argument.
A
And it also doesn't help. At 32 and 1-8-inch arm length, he had the smallest hand span. That's 28 tackles that they combine too. And the shortest arm length was registered by Alex Harkey, who's considered a late round pick. He had the second shortest arm length of the 28. And so, yeah, there is the potential to tell you something weird. What?
B
He has a. He has a wider wingspan. Fano has a wider wingspan than Will Campbell. I don't understand wingspan. I don't understand that. Yeah, you can have shorter arms.
A
You have a wide back.
B
He's got a big back. He's got a big back. So that's. I guess that's good.
A
Yeah. As the kids say, you're. You're a big back. So. So those are the three for me. And we can circle back and talk about where we are in the confidence. I want you to lay out the three for you, the players you really like who are outliers and what the outlier is.
B
We're gonna go with my guy, Makai Lemon from usc. And I get some people like, oh, he's really that big of an outlier. I think where you're gonna take him, I think middle of the first round, early first round. When you're talking about guy who's 5, 11, 30 and a half inch arms, 8 and 3 quarters inch arms, he's. He's small. Let's just be honest about it. He's small. For your receiver, gonna take that early. So I think that's his outlier. Lee Hunter is the funniest one to me because I really don't think he's an outlier. But I like to needle you because you've told me that because he has a 211 1/2 inch vertical jump, he can't play. He can't play defensive tackle in the NFL like he's trying out for the Pelicans or the G League or something. But we'll get into that. We'll talk about that one. And then d' Angelo Pon, obviously the frame again, we got a smaller guy. Sub 59, 29, 38 inch arms is an a red flag for a corner. Can he overcome that and succeed in the NFL?
A
All right, let's go one and one. Let's be quick in terms of your confidence index, where Are you. And tell me why you're that confidence level. If you're high on them, explain why. Until if you're not, explain, explain why. Why don't you kick it off with the, with the. Of those three, who are you most confident confident in? And Give me a 1 out of 10 on where you are in the confidence of my guys that again that he, not only that he's going to be fine and he's going to be, he's going to overcome the outlier number or whatever it is, but also based off of where you have to draft him.
B
Right. So, so those, that, that marriage of those two things is Lee Hunter the defensive tackle, Texas Stack. Because I don't. You're not going to take them early. You're going to get them, you know, maybe the end of the first. Most likely you're going to get them in the first, I don't know, half of the second round, maybe even after that. But I think I would take him in the first half of the second round. And again I, I just go back to this. I get it that you could and, and I do think the analysts and the analytics all have an important place at the table. You can, you cannot convince me right now as I sit here that a defensive tackles broad jump is going to prevent him or a vertical. No, it's broad jump, right or no, this is vertical. You can't tell me defensive tackles vertical is going to prevent him from being good in the NFL. And when I watch him on tape, this is, this is true. When I went back and I watched him, I was like, maybe he's not as close as I thought he was and maybe there is something to it. He still makes plays, he's still stout against the run. He's still more athletic rushing the passer than you would think. I just think Lee Hunter is a good football player. I don't know if he really was ready for the, for the vertical jump. I don't really care because I just think the tape's too good not to take a chance on him. That all being said, I'm a realist. I'll go seven.
A
Yeah. Yeah. He's a different cat. He like athletically he doesn't really look the part. He's kind of top heavy. Yeah, I get it. Like the knock kneed stuff. He's like, you know, can't. The lower body explosion doesn't line up with, with what you see from a set, even a second round draft pick. Yeah but he's nasty man. He's a good player. He ain't getting out of the second. I promise you that much. And you're probably gonna have to. It's probably gonna be a top 50 pick to, to get him so a seven for him. I wrote Reuben Bain.
B
Let's go.
A
Here's the thing with Reuben Bain, Okay. I don't need him to be a double digit, digit sack guy every year for me to get my value as a top 10 pick. I'd like for him to be. He went up against a lot of good offensive tackles. He got better late in the season. He like when it mattered he was. We talk about Mendoza when it matters. When it mattered. This, this guy was absolutely dominant. He beat up on Notre Dame like physically. And they're supposed to be the team that we might not be the fastest and most athletic but we are discipline and we are going to run it down your throat. Like not on four. I, I can't give him a 10, but I'm going to give him a nine. I don't see a world. And we're assuming everyone's healthy. Right. This is. You have to assume health. It won't be his arm length that prevents him from being a great player in the league. He wins with leverage. Yes. Toughness, power bend. Like he, he. We always talk about advancing the rush through contact. Like he is violent with his hands. Reuben Bain ain't failing in the NFL. Get out of here. So what he is seven sacks or nine sack year and it's not double. I told you he wouldn't be a double digit sack guy in the league. We haven't had 12 decades. Fuck off. He's gonna give you nightmares when the game's over and he's gonna ruin your sleep the week of too. He is just such a headache, man.
B
Yeah. And if the arm length's that bad, how does he always end up getting into guys frames? Like he's just always on top of these dudes. Like he's, he's winning that battle. That's how he wins. You think it's his biggest weaknesses? Weakness is actually his greatest strength. And, and despite. In spite of the length. I don't know. It doesn't matter. He gets into offensive tackles. He pushes them around and if your arms are that short. The guys are going against college are much, they have much longer arms too. Like so it's. I do think it's going to translate. I gave him an 8. I thought that was wild. 9. You're out of control because there's a, there is a lot of history here that's Okay.
A
I don't. I don't. I don't buy it. I don't. I do not buy it. All right, next up, who do you got?
B
Let's go.
A
Let's go.
B
Makai Lemon.
A
Yeah.
B
Because is he really an outlier? I think he's going. If he's going in the second round. I'm not. I'm not. We're not really having this conversation. Like I said, when the numbers came out, I think he checked the boxes in terms of his height and weight, and I think he ran well enough at his pro day, depending on what time. I don't really care. It was well enough. But now we're talking about what? I mean, he could go as early
A
as 13th, 11, 13.
B
So we're talking that range for a guy that size. I don't know, man. I don't know. I love the tape. I don't like dry. I don't like drafting average size slot receivers that early. I. I don't. And I think that when you look at his production, you look at your tape, you want to bet on him. But this is how I feel about it. Five, five. Confidence in that happening. Whoa.
A
Because he was bad at the podium?
B
No, because it just. I think we have to look at. Why are these guys outliers historically, guys this size. He's not six foot. He's not six foot.
A
Like, he.
B
He. He's. I'm on Ross St. Brown. Right. Or he's what? And tell me like, do. Would you go back and draft Amon Ron St. Brown in the. With the 10th pick? Probably.
A
Right? Probably.
B
But still, like, he's not that. He. You are drafting an elite receiver prospect in that range.
A
Yeah, he's the shortest of the top, but at least five of the elite receivers in this class. Or what? However you would.
B
He's shorter than jsn. He's smaller than jsn. He's smaller than America.
A
You didn't even mention he's got the smallest hands. Eight and three quarters.
B
I. I should have mentioned that too. Yeah. I don't mention that because I think he catches the ball well. Like, I like it's with Bane. Like, if the arm like such an issue, then why is he getting into offensive tackles? And with Lemon, if the hands are such an issue, why does he catch the ball so well? Like, I don't really care about that. But the height, the size, historically, I don't get it. I don't get why people value him that highly. There have been a lot of.
A
Because. Because there's a There, there's a go. There's what go?
B
Elijah Moore was smaller coming out of Ole Miss, but Elijah Moore, I remember watching him at Ole Miss and was like the. I, I was in love with Elijah Moore. He caught literally everything. Everything. I thought he was such a good prospect coming out and the reality is he went in the second round and he hasn't really done much in the NFL. That's the reality of it. Go back and look at Elijah Moore's tape and tell me he wasn't an outstanding wide receiver prospect coming out of college. You'll have a hard time making that argument. But he's not a big guy. It's just the bigger like Ted Tedro McMillan. We looked at him last year and I don't mean to, you know, bring up a sore spot, but it was like, oh, he does he getting out of brakes as well as some of these other guys. It doesn't matter. When you have that frame and you can win the way that they win and if they what we wish we had known then about how he knew how to adjust the coverages and all that stuff. But when they can do that as well, that's what, that's what wins in the NFL. Man. It's not slot receivers. Those aren't the guys you value as much because you can find them in other places in the draft. You can find them in free agency. You just don't value that kind of a guy the way you do a bigger bodied wide receiver. Yeah.
A
I mean he's almost 6 foot. He's 193 pounds almost.
B
He's. I'm on Ross St. Brown.
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's sloppy.
B
That's his ceiling. That's a pretty good ceiling. But it's absolutely.
A
Yeah. I mean I like, I, I like him late, like later first round if I could get him but if it required like and, and I can't stand that will tell me where he is and I'll tell you how good he's going to be. Like, you know, it's my least favorite take this time of year. Yeah. Somewhere in that range I've moved all the wide receivers down a little bit.
B
Okay. What's your level of him going in the teens and paying off for that kind of a pick. What's your confidence level? That's what I want to know.
A
Seven.
B
Interesting.
A
Okay. Yeah. If he goes to ran the Rams is the highest. I think he's going to go 13.
B
Yep.
A
And while that I feel like that's a little high. I also like if he goes to the Rams. He's going to be a great player.
B
Right?
A
Agree. Yeah. So I just think he's real smooth. I think he's tough. I think he's instinctive. I think, like, oh, I, I, I
B
don't disagree with anything.
A
I think he's scrappy as hell. Uhhuh. I think he knows how to separate all those. But I, but I'm not discounting everything you're saying. I'm not. Yeah. Typically we talk about this kind of guy, like mid to late first, and that's, honestly, I think that's where the league has him, if we're being honest. I think the league has, I think the league as a whole, if you were to majority vote, this thing has Carnell tate top, top 15 in A, in a given year. Carnell Tate is a top 15. He ain't the guy playing opposite him. That guy's going to be the first player drafted next year. Jeremiah Smith. Not, not, not with a quarterback in front of his name. Yeah, I, I think, and, and quite honestly, I, I think, I think Tate is like, yeah, he's, he's a 10 to 10 to 20 guy mid first round in a, in a, in a normal year, in a good year. And I think late first, early second is kind of where you got. I think Tyson's better.
B
Yes.
A
I don't, I think Tyson's better. I don't, I worry about the durability stuff.
B
Yes. And that's why I understand him falling a little bit. Yep.
A
And I think guys would be in the 20s. Sorry.
B
No, don't worry about it.
A
Next. Ty Simpson. And this one does matter. Where he lands, obviously, in the situation and when he's allowed to play and when who's in front of him and all that stuff. But I just believe in the guy and I believe you're, you're getting him somewhere, let's say 20, 25 to 35. And I'm good with that. Preferably. If it is going to be Arizona, I'd rather they don't trade back in to get them, but they may for the fifth year option, which I get it, we can have that debate. Is it really worth it? Because if he's any good, they'll pay him after the third year anyway. But it's there. And if you're questioning whether you want to keep him for another year, it means he's not the guy.
B
Right.
A
So. But the outlier's tough, man. You know, I was on, I was on a Joel Clatt yesterday. He did a study. He took it to Another level. And I like this one. You're gonna really like this one.
B
Okay.
A
Super. Super bowl winners. I forget how many years he went, like 30 years or something. Crazy. Super bowl winners. You know what the average college starts for? Super bowl winners, whatever. However far back he went,
B
I'm gonna
A
say, guess what that number is. 28. 30. 35.
B
35. Wow. No, it's different.
A
I get it. Or did he say 25? No, no, he said 35. He either said 30. It was mid-30s. And. And he. And I said, well, what about Brady? He won a lot of those. And he wasn't a lot because, remember at Michigan, like, he. He was behind Brian Greasy. Yes. Greasy went and won the first national championship for Michigan in 50 years. And then when he got the job, then the Drew Henson and that whole saga. Yeah. So. But he would. But Brady still wound up with. I think he said 25 starts, 24 or 25 starts at Michigan. So you, you factor all of that in. But where, where you're going to get Simpson is the area where you hope he's a really good starter for you. He's going to get a crack at being the starter at some point. It may not be in year one, it may be week eight, it may be year two, but he's in the first year and a little bit of change, he's going to get a crack at that job. Unless something awful has happened and you're going to find out pretty quickly within a year, typically maybe two, if he, if he can be your guy. But you're not starting in week one or you're not. You're not bringing him in with like the, the vision is he's the guy. Right. So definitively it has to be. And quite frankly, you draft him late first, early second, and you can still draft another one next year. So, so my, My, My confidence index number is 7 on Ty Simpson because I am extraordinarily high. Not as high as the one person who set this. The whole media, you know, frenzy off with his taste, Dan. Or my buddy Dan Orlovsky. But, But I'm high on him, so I go seven. And I know you're way lower.
B
Yeah.
A
Would you take Taylor Green over Tyson? Ty Simpson?
B
No, no, no, no, no. I like Ty Simpson's tape enough. I think Ty Simpson's got a real shot to overcome it. And when I say that, I mean he has a four. I would give him a four. Confidence. If you were telling me you're going to take Taylor Green in the first round. And, and I think it's interesting that there might be some buzz about that all of a sudden, about him going super early. I don't. I don't love that.
A
It's a stretch, I think. I don't think he gets out of round two, but I would be. I think everyone would be shocked if he goes round one.
B
The league is kind of telling us something, too, because I don't think there's any real buzz of Simpson going early first round. I don't think that's a real thing. And if that's not a real thing, the league's kind of dictating a little bit there that they don't really. They don't real. They don't feel real confident this kid's going to be as good as he was in college. And I just. I. Again, I can acknowledge all the positives about Ty Simpson, and there's a lot. And I can root for Ty Simpson like I root for every sing player, to be honest with you. I do. Like, I want them all to do well. It's just the reality.
A
Unless you're really low on them, and then you can. Yeah,
B
the history is overwhelming. The history is overwhelming. And. And that's what he's going up against. And he doesn't have that Superman. He doesn't have that Superman power. You know, like, his brain's amazing, but he doesn't have that physical Superman power.
A
All right, a Friday, and we've already gone way too long. One. One more guy, and let's rip through it.
B
D' Angelo ponds the Indiana corner. Obviously undersized.
A
I'm giving you. I'm giving you him at pick 54.
B
Ooh, mid 50, 54.
A
Back half of the second round.
B
Okay, we're going back half the second round. I'm gonna go six. And I love him, and he just ran a 4. 3. 1 yesterday. And I absolutely love his tape. But I'm going to refer back to this, and I. I truly believe it, that it is tougher now for smaller corners, the NFL, than it was 10, 15 years ago, because the smaller corners that are successful.
A
Antoine Winfield.
B
Rhonda. No, Antoine.
A
Yeah.
B
Antoine Winfield. Ronde Barber. Dre Blythe. People forget about Dre Bly. Tough dudes. And they would brawl with you on the outside. They would get into hand fighting. They would do all kinds of things to negate that. They were just, you know, they were the guy that would guard the number. Like, if you're playing pickup basketball and you have that guy, wouldn't let anyone post him up down under, even though he's like five, nine. That's what these guys are. They are so physical and tough, and I don't think the league's going to let them. I don't think it tr. It translates to the league anymore. I don't think the league will let them be that kind of physical player that they are in college in the NFL. And I think it really hurts the smaller corners he's going to have to kick inside. He's almost. I think he's almost exclusively played outside. I don't. It's not that I don't think he can do it, but again, super small, physical player. I don't.
A
I just don't want to be the most distinctive player in this draw.
B
He's good, man.
A
He might be. He might be one of the toughest pound.
B
He is toughest instinctive counter.
A
But yeah, okay, fine, then. Then put him in number two or three in the entire corner class, which is a pretty good group. And then pound for pound, he's the toughest son of a. Out there. And then he runs a 4, 3, 1. What else you want, bro?
B
2 more inches. 2 more inches on his arms and 2 more inches on his frame. That's what I want.
A
Talk about that's what I want. Pissed off I get. Honestly, the more pissed off I get, I can't wait for Pons to go to his first Pro bowl and to be on a. Like, I think Pons is a player. I think Ponce. He's.
B
He isn't. Like, if you're talking about tape, if we're talking about the. The 50 best players on tape, he. I don't even think he gets to. To 40. I think he's that good. I just.
A
Spencer Fano. I'm giving him a five. You son of a. I gotta take him in the top 15.
B
Yep.
A
He's got. He's got arms that belong in a circus.
B
Okay, all right. I know you're mad, but come on.
A
I mean, I really like him on tape. I get it. He moves so well. He runs a 4, 9, 1. At the combine, you see, like, the energy plays with. You see how they do a lot of, like, screen game. They do a lot of bringing in the. The receiver or the. Or the. Or the tight end from that. From his side. And then they'll. They'll get outside in the run game and they'll. They'll pull the tackle. They do a lot of things that highlight his mobility. They had two tackles that can move, and they took advantage of that with Fano on the right side. And Lomu on the other. And I think he does all those things great. Yeah.
B
Can I tell you.
A
Well, Campbell. What?
B
You're exactly right. He's a 5 at that range. He's 100% a 5.
A
That he's going to be a good starting. Because if I'm drafting a tackle in the top 15, I want Kelvin Banks. I want what Campbell did before the injury. I want, I'm sure I would love. But we're not. We're not talking about top five. I want Membu.
B
Yeah.
A
I want that kind of rookie season and progressing from there. Right. I think he's going to be an awesome center. If he kicks in. I think he could be a really good guard. I like him at center better than guard, if I'm being honest with you. I don't know that he can do it and, like, that he's gonna excel in that role. So there's another, like, question mark, but I think he would be. But I'm not. You tell me he's your starting right or left tackle in Week 1 of the season. I'm like, let's keep an eye on this.
B
Yeah.
A
You know, and we picked him at 14 or, you know, so.
B
And I, I, I believe that he can reward that. And, like, with all these players, I believe that they can reward your faith. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about how confident are you right now. And I think you're dead on. I think 5 is an accurate number for him. Like, it's just as much as I love the player and have loved them all along, we're talking about the history here. We're talking about what they're going up and what they have to overcome. There have been other players that I've loved with short arms that didn't work out. So, like, you have to protect. You almost have to protect against yourself. Right. Like, you got to protect against what you've said from the very beginning to, like, bring it full circle. You fall in love with these players when you spend time with them. You got to make sure that you understand that it's a heightweight league, that there are certain, certain parameters that if you fall outside of it, it's tough. It's tough to make it. Yeah.
A
The GM seat's an interesting one, isn't it?
B
It's. I mean, for so many reasons.
A
I mean, for so many reasons, I think back to, like, like Al Davis and the Raiders. Like, I like that guy. He runs fast. Let's take him. This league has changed Scouts used to spend 70, 80% of their time evaluating players and trying to unearth small school guys and all that. We all know, you and me sitting at home and even more shockingly, guys that have no clue what they're doing. They could put together a top 300 board. It would suck, but they could put it together and they know who the players are going to be. You got obviously the combine, but you get everything on the social media and the Internet that can provide all that information out there. And why is that important? Because there's so much information and then you've got all these analytics, analytics that have been introduced to it and you've got all this historical data and you've got, you've got Scott Goldman and AIQ and two or three other places trying to do that with the intelligence testing and the psychological testing. And now scouts are spending 70 of their time trying to figure out who the human being is, which they should. Yeah, you're investing a lot of money in this young man. And because we can all kind of figure. And now we have ease of access or tape from players anywhere they want. Three hours after the game, it all goes into catapult and we get the remote control out and it's like bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. But you, that's just. And now you've got all this stuff that's. These are the best players, but my gosh, there's a problem with all of them. If you, you know, if you.
B
Yeah.
A
And figuring out what information to listen to. It's wild. 20 days to the draft, really quickly.
B
They did a lot of these. Speaking of this, a lot of these gms are in tough spots because we didn't even play the game that you love to play. If you're not, if you're not taking Fano there, who are you taking? And in this draft there's that, that
A
range and what are his flaws and is he in a position. Yes, that's worth it. And now I get my cap guy, my cap guy telling me that, that I take Jeremiah Love here. He's the eighth highest running paid running back in the league right away and we don't have an offensive line to block for him.
B
Right, Right.
A
It's a nightmare. Good luck. But in 20 days we're going to celebrate this whole thing. We're going to do it from LA in the brand new studios out in Spotify with the ringer and we're fired up to do it. And you can check out all of our information as we continue to pump it all in to our new beautiful website, the McShade Draft Room. And it's theringer.com mcshay. Check it all out. We're back on Monday, man. With no time to rest. I tried to skip today's show. I couldn't. It turned out to be a blast. Five stars.
B
Thanks, man.
A
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Date: April 3, 2026
Episode Title: Will Mendoza or Cousins Start? Plus, the Draft Outliers Confidence Index
Hosts: Todd McShay & Steve Muench
Main Guests/Topics: Bain, Simpson, Lemon, and Deep-Dive on Outlier Prospects
In this episode, Todd McShay and Steve Muench dive into the most contentious and intriguing storylines leading up to the NFL Draft, focusing on the debate of whether Fernando Mendoza or Kirk Cousins will start in Arizona, the high-stakes maneuvering at the top of the draft (especially around the Cardinals' #3 pick), and a robust debate about "outlier" prospects and their real chances in the league. The hosts unpack notable performances, team strategies, and share their “Confidence Index” on several divisive prospects.
Timestamps: 00:01–08:46
Timestamps: 08:46–13:48
Timestamps: 13:48–19:32
Timestamps: 21:33–52:00
| PROSPECT | OUTLIER FLAG | DRAFT RANGE | CONFIDENCE (1–10) | NOTES | |----------|--------------|-------------|-------------------|-------| | Ty Simpson | One-year starter | 20–35 | 7 (McShay), 4 (Muench) | High upside, but historical red flags | | Reuben Bain | Short arms | Top 10 | 9 (McShay), 8 (Muench) | "Gets into frames, violent hands" | | Spencer Fano | Short arms/hands | Top 15 | 5 (both) | Projects as C/G; skepticism at OT | | Makai Lemon | Undersized WR | Mid–late 1st | 5–7 | Great tape, but slot size limits upside | | Lee Hunter | Below average vertical | Early 2nd | 7 | Production outweighs metrics | | D’Angelo Pons | Short, short arms CB | Late 2nd | 6 | Instincts vs. modern NFL rules |
For further in-depth scouting reports and updates, visit The Ringer’s McShay Draft Room.