The MeidasTouch Podcast

Episode: Ben Smith Discusses Trump’s Collapse in 2026
Date: February 18, 2026
Featured Guest: Ben Smith (Semaphore, Mixed Signals Podcast)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the precipitous decline of Donald Trump’s political standing in 2026. The Meiselas brothers—Ben, Brett, and Jordy—break down new polling, cultural reactions to Trump’s presidency, and shifting public sentiment heading into the midterms. Their guest, Ben Smith (longtime media analyst and editor at Semaphore), joins to unpack why Trump’s once-magical aura has faded, the role of social media “real videos” in shaping public opinion, and how old scandals like Epstein have resurfaced with devastating effect.

Key Discussion Points

1. Trump’s Polling Collapse and International Mockery

• (01:21–03:34) Ben Meiselas opens with striking imagery of Trump mocked in European parades (notably Dusseldorf and Munich), highlighting how Trump’s image has become toxic abroad.
  • Examples: Floats of Trump hitting Jesus, labeled the "Orange Plague," and depicted as a "Putin bootlicker."
  • Quote (Ben Meiselas, 01:21):
    "As Donald Trump's polling hits new lows, we're seeing massive international protests against Donald Trump. We're seeing him mocked in parades... The United States was featured alongside the Ayatollah, Putin, Afghanistan. They sure know how to do a carnival there in Dusseldorf."

2. Shifts in Voter Sentiment – The 2026 Polls

• (03:34–05:46) The hosts dissect new polling data indicating that, if the 2024 election were re-run, Kamala Harris would now decisively defeat Trump.
  • Key Figure: In a reweighted sample by NBC News/Survey Monkey, Harris would win by 8 points.
  • Quote (Brett Meiselas, 03:53): "But look at where we are now... Kamala Harris wins in a redo... by, get this, eight points. A massive shift from what we saw back in November of 2024 when Donald Trump won by a point."
• (04:44–05:46) Discussion on “stickiness” of party loyalty in congressional voting:
  • Harris voters stick with Democrats by 89 points; Trump voters with Republicans by only 83, creating a 5-point generic ballot lead for Democrats going into midterms.
  • Quote (Brett Meiselas, 04:44): "The Democratic base that voted for Kamala Harris is sticking with those congressional Democratic candidates to a much greater degree than those Trump voters are sticking with the Republican candidates for Congress."

3. New Voters and Independents Swinging Against Trump

• (05:51–06:20) The hosts highlight another turnout factor: new and independent voters are breaking heavily Democratic, with non-2024 voters now favoring Democrats by 16 points.

4. Why Is Trump’s Support Collapsing? Enter Ben Smith

• (06:20–08:12) Ben Meiselas introduces Ben Smith and frames Trump's downfall:
  • “Real videos” of abuses (ICE and Border Patrol violence) break out from social media bubbles.
  • The "Epstein disaster": Trump’s past closeness to Epstein is backfire.
  • Media landscape shifts—independent outlets rising, right-wing spin faltering.
  • Quote (Ben Meiselas, 06:20): "...The ice, Border Patrol Gestapo videos that people are capturing of Trump terrorizing... the Epstein disaster, obviously... and Trump's attempt at capturing the media really hasn't gone as planned."

5. Ben Smith on the Political “Reversion to the Mean”

• (08:12–10:27) Ben Smith addresses the illusion that Trump’s presidency wouldn’t obey historical cycles, noting that second-year collapses are common.
  • He’s surprised that genuine reality—especially disturbing, unspinnable video—broke through even hyperpartisan media bubbles.
  • Quote (Ben Smith, 08:12): "There was this idea that we were post-truth... and AI was going to mean everybody would live in this kind of closed bubble... I just don’t think that’s really happened... what broke through was the reality of these videos."
  • Nate Silver’s data: Trump’s approval is even worse than Biden’s at same point, and worse than Trump’s first term.

6. The Power of “Real Videos” to Break the Bubble

• (10:27–11:39) The hosts and Smith discuss viral videos—particularly ICE incidents—that forced Trumpworld to walk back false narratives as unspinnable evidence surfaced.
  • Quote (Ben Meiselas, 10:27): "The pattern is... they come out and say, you know, this is a domestic terrorist. They try to bend the reality... And then the video comes out, and then different angles of the video come out... And then they kind of... have to basically, like, with the Pretty video, somewhat walk it back and say, well, now we're doing an investigation."
  • Trump allies tried “flooding the zone” with misinformation, but “the magic... has just totally worn off.” (Smith, 11:39)

7. The Historical Analogy—Bush, Iraq, and Trump’s Team

• (11:39–13:09) Smith likens Trump’s 2026 predicament to Bush’s 2006 crash over the Iraq War.
  • Emphasizes the growing scrutiny on hardline advisor Stephen Miller as a possible future “Rumsfeld” figure (i.e., a lightning-rod resignation).
  • Quote (Ben Smith, 12:52): "...the best analogy right here... this just feels so much like 2006 when you had the Iraq war... Bush had to get rid of Rumsfeld. I don't know if Trump pushes people out, but there's enormous pressure on Stephen Miller right now."

8. The Epstein Files Backfire

• (13:09–18:44) Extended discussion on how the reopening/unsealing of Epstein-related files—a strategy meant to harm Trump’s rivals—imploded, implicating many in Trump’s orbit (and Trump himself).
  • Smith: Trump’s long-known connection to Epstein “is like an oil spill. You can’t get it off you once it’s on you.” (14:21)
  • Debate between Ben Meiselas and Ben Smith over the extent and seriousness of allegations, DOJ/FBI’s conduct, and unresolved questions.
  • Quote (Ben Smith, 14:21): "...no serious allegation that Trump ever committed a crime. That's not in the files. But the association with Epstein right now, politically, it's just—it's like an oil spill."
  • Meiselas pushes back: suggests allegations were not fully investigated; Smith disagrees (16:17–16:40).
  • Both agree that the Trump team’s own strategy catastrophically backfired by unearthing damaging documents.

9. The Inescapability of Trump’s Scandals

• (18:44–18:59) The episode wraps up acknowledging the unresolved shadows and political toxicity that scandals like Epstein cast on Trump—compounded by his “admittedly, publicly” close former friendship with Epstein.
  • Quote (Ben Smith, 18:44): "Partly because Trump genuinely, admittedly, publicly had this friendship with Epstein, it’s just so hard for him to ever disentangle from this. I mean, it’s just a sort of unsolvable political problem for him."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mockery Abroad:
  "There were Donald Trump hitting Jesus in the face and giving Jesus a black eye float..."
  —Ben Meiselas, 01:21

• The 8-point Turnaround:
  "Kamala Harris wins in a redo. And asking folks essentially if you could redo the 2024 election, how would you vote? She wins it by, get this, eight points."
  —Brett Meiselas, 03:53

• On the Unspinnable Reality:
  "What broke through was the reality of these videos... And that to me is actually in some ways the thing that everybody got most wrong. The idea that Trump had created this new epistemic universe."
  —Ben Smith, 08:12

• The Epstein Oil Spill:
  "The association with Epstein right now, politically, it's just—it's like an oil spill. Like, you can't get it off you once it's on you."
  —Ben Smith, 14:21

• Historical Comparison:
  "This just feels so much like 2006... Bush had to get rid of Rumsfeld. I don't know if Trump pushes people out, but there's enormous pressure on Stephen Miller right now."
  —Ben Smith, 12:52

Key Timestamps

• 01:21–03:34: Trump mocked in European carnivals; his global reputation nosedives.
• 03:34–05:46: Discussion of new polling; Harris’ hypothetical landslide; why voter loyalty is shifting.
• 05:51–06:20: Analysis of non-2024 voters, independents breaking Democratic.
• 06:20–08:12: Introduction of Ben Smith; initial breakdown of Trump’s downfall.
• 08:12–10:27: Ben Smith’s take on “second-year collapse,” polling, and reality breaking through the “post-truth” era.
• 10:27–11:39: Dissection of the power of real, viral video evidence versus spin.
• 11:39–13:09: Bush/Iraq parallel; pressure on Stephen Miller.
• 13:09–18:44: Epstein files, political fallout, disagreement over DOJ/FBI’s role, and the “oil spill” analogy.
• 18:44–18:59: Summing up Trump’s inescapable scandal gravity.

Final Thoughts and Tone

This episode captures the intersection of news analysis and candid, sometimes humorous, brotherly banter. The tone is irreverent but deeply informed, blending sharp critiques with references to both past administrations and the specifics of Trump’s political implosion. Ben Smith’s media-savvy perspective highlights how even in an era of deepfakes and polarization, indisputable realities—primarily unfiltered video evidence and unsealed files—can shatter even the most hardened partisan bubbles.

Listener takeaway: Trump’s downfall in 2026 is both a product of historical inevitabilities and unique missteps—above all, the resurgence of real, unspinnable evidence and scandals that stick.