E (1:30)

Look.

D (1:31)

And the balance of risks we continue to face two sided risks. In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.

E (1:50)

Now the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who has access to the actual financial data out there, he explains how in the near term the risks to inflation are up and the risks to employment are down, meaning employment not going in the right direction, inflation not going in the right direction. There's a name for this, especially with a slowing gdp. It's called stagflation.

G (2:17)

Here, play this clip.

D (2:19)

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk free path for policy. As we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals, our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of Our dual mandate.

E (2:40)

Next up, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, talks about how Trump's tariffs are pushing up prices.

G (2:47)

Play this clip.

D (2:50)

Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short lived, a one time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent and that is a risk to be assessed and managed.

E (3:13)

He also talks about how job gains have slowed significantly as a result of Trump attacking labor forces and labor markets.

G (3:22)

Here.

D (3:22)

Play this clip Job gains have slowed significantly since earlier in the year. A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Although official employment data for September are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low and that both households perceptions of job availability and firms perceptions of hiring difficulty continue to decline in this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market. The downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months.

E (4:03)

Jerome Powell talks about what we're seeing here as well. He describes it as two things affecting the job market. Dramatic reduction in new workers.

G (4:13)

Here, play this clip.

H (4:15)

What is your explanation for why the job market is weakening right now and what will this rate cut do to improve the job market?

D (4:24)

So I think the, there are two things affecting the job market and one of them is just a dramatic reduction in the supply of new workers. So and that's two things. That's declining labor force participation, which is a cyclical thing. And then there's declining immigration, which is just a big policy change that actually began in the last administration and has been accelerated now. So a big part of the whole story is that supply side story, okay? In addition, labor demand has declined and you know, so the labor, the unemployment rate has gone down, meaning that demand for workers is going down a little more than supply. So that's, that's what's going on. And, but it is mostly a supply function, you know, it's mostly a function of the change in supply, I think, and many people think so. The question then is what does, what does the, you know, our tool do which supports demand? And you know, so and I would just say when you're, when you're in a situation where job, job creation, if you adjust for likely overcounting in the way that BLS does its work, is pretty close to zero. So maximum employment doesn't, on a sustainable basis, doesn't, if it's if you're making, creating zero jobs, if it's in equilibrium, if it's, if it's in balance, it's a pretty, as I, as I said before, pretty curious balance. So, you know, I thought, and many of my colleagues thought, in fact, you've seen the last two meetings, that it was appropriate for us to react by supporting demand with our, with our rates. And we've done that. We've reduced so that rates are looser. I wouldn't say that they're accommodative right now, but they're meaningfully less tight than they were and that should help so that at least the labor market doesn't, doesn't get worse though it's a complicated situation and some people argue that, that this is supply and we really can't affect it much with our tools. But others argue, as I do, that there is an effect from demand and that we should use our tools to support the labor market when we see this happening.

E (6:34)

Jerome Powell also talks about, essentially describes it as the rich are getting richer and everybody else is having their lives destroyed by Donald Trump. Here's how he describes it when he says, if you listen to the reports of big public consumer companies, they say on the high end there's lots of spending, but everywhere else where most consumers reside, that's where there's real struggle.

G (7:00)

Here, play this clip thing.

D (7:02)

I would say the same thing or similar thing we are. If you listen to the earnings calls or the reports of, you know, big public consumer facing companies, many, many of them are saying that there's a bifurcated economy there and that consumers at the lower end are struggling and buying less and shifting to lower cost products, but that at the top people are spending at the higher income and wealth and so much, much anecdotal data on that. And so we think there's something there.

H (7:40)

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E (9:16)

E I-a s and Powell talks about, you know, how there's restrictive policies in place.

G (9:23)

Play this clip.

D (9:23)

Aid is, is a big part of that, but also just, you know, we think policy is still modestly restrictive in my telling. So that's the kind of thing that should lead to a gradually cooling economy. That's one of the reasons you see a gradually cooling labor market is because, you know, the Fed policy is modestly restrictive. So that, that should also help get that. I want to say, though, we're absolutely committed to returning inflation to 2%. If you look at longer term surveys or market pricing, you will see that, that that's a credible commitment and there should be no question that that's, that that's where we're going.

E (10:01)

Now contrast this to what Donald Trump was saying just hours before during his horrific trip to South Korea, where he says that his tariffs stopped inflation. The exact opposite of what the central banker of America is saying, what Jerome Powell saying.

G (10:18)

Here, play this clip.

C (10:19)

Those wars ended on top of it all. Tariffs now projected to reduce our deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years. And I think actually much more than that. That's national security because you can't have deficits and you can't have debt all over the place and stops inflation and strengthening the dollar and ultimately balancing our federal budget, which I think we're going to do very quickly only because of our policy of fair tariffs.

E (10:47)

Then Donald Trump says that we need to have the lowest interest rates anywhere. Just keep on lowering them. The issue is if you precipitously do that, you're going to cause inflation to keep on surging. And that's what we are seeing here.

G (11:02)

Play this clip.

C (11:02)

Well, appoint somebody that we all like because we should have the lowest interest rates of any country because without us, there are no other countries, really. I mean, the whole thing falls apart. You know, America always had the lowest interest rates and now we, we don't do that. We, you know, we're like number 28. It's ridiculous. And we have, we're much different country than we were two years ago or a year ago.

E (11:25)

Even then, Donald Trump claims that by firing bureaucrats, we're creating real jobs. Actually, the manufacturing boom under former President Biden is no longer manufacturing and construction jobs are basically in a recession right now. They're going down, down, down.

G (11:43)

Here, play this clip.

C (11:45)

I've shrunk the size of government for the first time in many years since January, 100,000 bureaucrats have left the federal payroll. You've probably seen that. So we're creating real jobs. We're getting rid of wasteful jobs. Government spending is down 2.5% this quarter compared to one year ago. It was going through the roof in the previous administration.

E (12:07)

Then you had Donald Trump in South Korea saying this is basically what his game plan is. Just make announcements of good news, no matter if it's real or not. And then the stock market goes up.

G (12:19)

Here, play this clip.

C (12:20)

When we announce good news, the stock markets are going to go up and that's the way it should be. And we're going to really ride that very hard. And when we announce good news, we're not going to have a Fed that's going to raise interest rates because they're worried about inflation in three years from now or something. When we announce good news, we want the stock market to go up, not to go down and discourage of inflation. We inherited, you know, we inherited the worst inflation ever that we've ever had. I inherited from incompetent people. And now we're down to a very low rate of inflation, 2.7%. And it's going to be a little bit lower than that. It's almost a perfect number.

E (12:59)

And then he goes and does that and he lies and says that America's brought in 22 trillion dollars of investment. 22 trillion. Last week it was 17, then it was 18, then it was 20, now it's 22 trillion. Soon it's just going to be the size of the entire United States gdp. And he's going to Say without me, you wouldn't have a GDP. You know the word GDP? It's like groceries. I came up with the word GDP.

G (13:23)

Here, play this clip.

C (13:24)

For over $18 trillion of new investments as an example. The previous administration, in four years, they did less than a trillion, I think much less actually, and hurt our country very badly. Who would have known? But we're going to be 18, so I figure that we'll probably be a 20 or 21, maybe even $22 trillion of investments coming into our country by the end of the first year of my, my second term.

E (13:50)

Yep. And as I mentioned, factory construction boom under Biden. Bye bye. That's gone. Also, Donald Trump announced when he was in weird to announce it when in South Korea he was leaving Japan. But he said that Mr. Toyota told him, Donald, we're going to give you $10 billion in the U.S. and Mr. Toyota then said, no, we not, we're not doing that. We never promised to give $10 billion. Trump is the Pied Piper of lying. He just goes around and lies over and over again. Here's what Donald Trump said.

G (14:23)

Here, play this clip.

I (14:24)

Last night I met with Toyota and we had an amazing meeting. I said, what's your name? Toyota. I said, you're rich. And he's going to invest, think of this, $10 billion in the United States to build manufacturing plants. They'll build their cars with American workers largely. They have the right to send some experts, but they're going to be building cars in the United States, so.

H (14:55)

Well, there you have it, folks.

E (14:55)

Let me know what you think. Hit subscribe. Let's get to 6 million subscribers. Thanks for watching. Want to stay plugged in? Become a subscriber to our substack@midasplus.com you'll get daily recaps from Ron Filipkowski ad free episodes of our podcast and more exclusive content only available@midasplus.com.