The MeidasTouch Podcast

Episode: Justin Wolfers Discusses Trump’s Long-term Economic Damage
Date: January 25, 2026
Hosts: Ben, Brett, and Jordy Meiselas
Guest: Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics, University of Michigan

Main Theme

This episode features a deep-dive discussion with economist Justin Wolfers on the long-term, structural economic damage wrought by Donald Trump’s presidency. Framed by the Meiselas brothers’ signature blend of sharp analysis and banter, the conversation explores the chaos, uncertainty, and institutional degradation caused by Trump’s economic policies, as well as their tangible effects on Americans’ everyday lives and the broader global standing of the U.S. economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trumpism, Political Backlash, and Economic Messaging

• J.D. Vance’s Tour and GOP Messaging Woes
  • J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice president, attempted to defend the administration’s economic and immigration policies with poor results. His “Titanic” metaphor (comparing the U.S. economy to a doomed ship) drew ridicule.
  • Vance faced intra-party attacks, exposing GOP division—especially over abortion, which Trump purportedly wants the party to downplay for electoral reasons ([02:28]).
• Trump’s Unrealistic Economic Promises
  • The podcast played multiple Trump clips vowing to “cut your energy bill in half within 12 months,” promises which remain unfulfilled ([08:21]).

2. Market Instability and Fabricated Deals

• Chaos from Policy Whiplash
  • Ben summarizes Trump’s pattern: “He goes to Davos. He confuses Greenland with Iceland... gives a rambling, incoherent speech... markets tank, markets rise. We’ve seen this pattern before.” ([11:31])
  • Wolfers describes a week where Trump threatened Fed officials, attempted to fire central bankers, and imposed (then rescinded) arbitrary tariffs, causing volatility and heightened uncertainty in all sectors ([11:47]).

3. The K-Shaped Recovery & Policy Failures

• Disparities in Recovery
  • The brothers discuss the “K-shaped economy” in which the rich get richer while the majority struggle: “Trump points to the markets, and people are saying, ‘What about me? I’m left behind.’” ([14:10])
• Unprecedented ‘Incompetence Recession’
  • Wolfers calls this “the first ever economic downturn caused by incompetence... It’s actually rare for a U.S. economic downturn to have this kind of cause... That’s not a story any economist is telling now.” ([15:41])
  • Uncertainty, he says, permeates everything: regulatory environments, trade relationships, cross-border education, and even day-to-day business planning.

4. Data Reliability Under Trump

• Manipulation and Erosion of Trust
  • The Trump administration’s firing of statistical officials has led to widespread distrust in official reports. Ben: “How do we even get accurate data?” ([19:20])
  • Wolfers’s stark assessment:
    • “Almost everything that comes out of the White House is a lie… If it’s true, it’s a mere accident.” ([20:26])
    • Despite this, agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics still aim for methodological rigor, though resource cuts compromise accuracy.
    • Honest numbers are now “contestable,” not always perfect due to methodological challenges and underfunding.

5. Consumer Confidence Paradox

• Why the Numbers Don't Match Experience
  • Despite reports of growth, consumer sentiment remains at an all-time low—“the worst on record” ([25:35]).
  • Wolfers explains modern survey responses are now more partisan and less reflective of actual economic conditions:
    • “The correlation between people’s feelings about the economy and their partisan views has become incredibly strong... Maybe we’re not learning anything about the economy anymore.” ([25:45])

6. Jobs, Manufacturing, and True Economic Health

• Erosion of Manufacturing Base
  • “We’re in a manufacturing recession, but equally we’ve been in one for roughly 40 years in a row... We’re moving from the factories into services... often with higher wages, better conditions.” ([29:46])
• Near a ‘Jobs Recession’
  • The economy is barely producing jobs and may, post-Liberation/Liquidation Day, be losing them—a very rare phenomenon for the U.S. economy ([30:26]).
• Bigger Picture: Institutional Decay
  • Wolfers urges focus beyond quarterly numbers:
    • The “foundation of prosperity” is institutional stability—rule of law, predictable governance, credible statistics, and independent agencies.
    • “[Trump] is attempting to take away the independence of the Federal Reserve... He’s tried to overturn an election. He is calling CEOs and telling them what to do. This is the most interventionist government of my lifetime. It’s the least conservative government of my lifetime.” ([32:00])
    • The real cost: lost opportunities, innovation, and prosperity that will only become apparent to the next generation.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• J.D. Vance’s Titanic Gaffe:
  • “The economy is just like the Titanic. You don’t turn the Titanic around overnight.” —J.D. Vance ([04:29])
• Wolfers on Trump’s Impact:
  • “This might be the first ever economic downturn caused by incompetence... That’s not a story any economist is telling right now.” ([15:41])
  • “Almost everything that comes out of the White House is a lie. If it’s true, it’s a mere accident.” ([20:26])
  • “This is the most interventionist government of my lifetime. It’s the least conservative government of my lifetime.” ([32:00])
• On Data Trust:
  • “Our economic statistics are compiled by independent-ish agencies... but honest numbers are contestable.” —Wolfers ([20:26])
• On Consumer Sentiment:
  • “It’s currently the worst on record.” —Wolfers, on University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment ([25:35])
  • “The correlation between people’s feelings about the economy and their partisan views has become incredibly strong... We might not be learning anything about the economy anymore.” —Wolfers ([25:45])
• Future Generations Will Pay:
  • “Whatever the next generation’s Google or OpenAI is, it may not happen on our soil... Our kids will feel it in a set of lost opportunities.” —Wolfers ([32:00])

Timestamps & Important Segments

• [02:28] – J.D. Vance’s political tour and Titanic metaphor
• [06:05] – Vance’s comments on immigration and failed attempts at tough-on-crime messaging
• [08:21] – Montage of Trump’s broken energy bill promises
• [10:53] – Justin Wolfers joins the show
• [11:47] – Wolfers recounts a week of chaos: tariffs, threats, and market swings
• [14:10] – Introduction of the “K-shaped” recovery concept
• [15:41] – Wolfers on the unique, incompetence-driven downturn
• [19:20] – Ben asks about tampering with data and erosion of trust
• [20:26] – Wolfers discusses which statistics can still be trusted
• [25:35] – The paradox of negative consumer sentiment amidst reported growth
• [29:46] – Manufacturing decline, jobs recession, and the need to focus on institutions
• [32:00] – Discussion of long-term institutional and generational consequences

Tone & Final Thoughts

The tone of the episode is a blend of witty skepticism, justified alarm, and earnest concern for the future of American prosperity. The hosts and Wolfers underscore the stakes: the damage from Trump’s economic mismanagement isn’t just immediate inflation or market swings—it’s the razing of the very institutions underpinning American growth and stability. The conversation ends with Wolfers and Ben agreeing on the need for deeper public conversation around these themes, promising future discussions focused explicitly on institutional decay and its hidden, lasting consequences.